Offseason rumors
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As a fan I feel a bit of panic to go just sign Montgomery right now, with a decent safety net option gone.
I want this very badly.
If Yamamoto came in and put up the EXACT same numbers as Montgomery has the last three years it would be considered resounding success.
3y/45M… exactly what was rumored/crowdsourced for him. Was expecting an overpay to be a Royal.
Worst take I’ve seen on here. His stuff is what made us join. Some of the better minor league talks out there.
Or that their rumored interest was all agent-talk and they are 100% focused on landing bigger fish.
Well if reports are correct, at least they've secured a meeting with Yamamoto. I hope their presentation includes the following:
*bring all 4 World Series trophies with them wherever they meet. He was around 5 years old in 2004 and about 20 when they last won in 2018. It shows that this franchise has been about winning it all more than any other in his lifetime
* Put together a video sequence showing highlights of the Fenway experience with some memorable moments, particularly in the playoffs, where it sounded like that place was gonna crumble off its (old) foundation it was so amped in there.
* Have Pedro, Papi, Koji, Daisuke, Yoshida as part of the recruiting caravan along with Cora and Breslow. I think Pedro in particular, another smallish framed RH pitcher who was the best i ever saw in his prime, would be a smart idea.
* Highlight what a gameday experince is like for a true #1, ace pitcher is, dating back to Clemens, Pedro, Beckett, Lester, Sale in their primes.
* open up the checkbook, John Henry. I'm not saying "whatever it takes", but it sounds like the price will be north of $300m. He is barely 25 yrs old. 11 yr/ $340m sounds like the top before posting fee
Sounds like a plan to me. I’d pull out all the stops.
But I’d also be very serious about Montgomery as well.
Is a 3 year deal flippable at the deadline? This feels more like 5/55 to Gil Meche back in the day.
+280. There's 10,000 posts clogging up this board with zero new content. JM3 is one of the few folks consistently contributing new content instead of regurgitating the same old bellyaches at nauseam.
Hey Man.... this is ridiculous. He provides incredible amount of fact based research to this board. If you don't like it that's one thing but banning him because you don't like it is ridiculous. WTF is this???
If you are passing on Lugo, you 100% have to get two guys equal or better. That list, free agency wise anyway, is not huge:
Yamamoto
Snell
Montgomery
Imanaga
Stroman
Giolito
Wacha
And of course, the trade market.
Guys of that ilk already off the board:
Nola
Gray
E-Rod
Lugo
Maeda
If "we need to acquire starting pitching" turns into Michael Wacha and James Paxton, things are going to get ugly.
EDIT: Note that Giloito and Wacha both barely make the acceptable list (as did Lugo). Two of them together won't cut it. One plus Yamamoto or Montgomery or Burnes would.
Yamamoto
Snell
Montgomery
Imanaga
Stroman
Giolito
Wacha
And of course, the trade market.
Guys of that ilk already off the board:
Nola
Gray
E-Rod
Lugo
Maeda
If "we need to acquire starting pitching" turns into Michael Wacha and James Paxton, things are going to get ugly.
EDIT: Note that Giloito and Wacha both barely make the acceptable list (as did Lugo). Two of them together won't cut it. One plus Yamamoto or Montgomery or Burnes would.
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The third year is a player option. They'll get something for him (if that is the strategy, I'm not sure it is for this year), but I count myself as one who is glad we're not giving a player option @ $15m to a guy who will be 36 and has very little track record. Not saying I wouldn't be glad he was on the 2024 Sox, but glad we're not facing that decision heading into 2026 (unless we trade for him . . . )
Not upset to see Lugo go elsewhere, but it does limit the pool of cost-effective pitching. Hopefully, they feel very confident on Yamamoto/Montgomery/Gilbert/Burnes - someone out there like that and maybe a mystery player? Heck, if there are mystery teams, there can be mystery players.
I think JMOH has gotten the message at this point. We don't need more +1billion, folks.
I think JMOH has gotten the message at this point. We don't need more +1billion, folks.
This is exactly right. Tom Werner out there saying they’ll be going “full throttle” turning into 2nd and 3rd tier guys would be the worst case scenario.
Or it could just be Lugo does not profile as a better starter than Houck or Crawford or Pivetta. Which seems pretty reasonable
As to the bolded, I mentioned last year for Snell upthread, but here's a look at the last 3 seasons:
6 IP or more:
2021: 7 of 27 (26%)
2022: 11 of 24 (46%)
2023: 20 of 32 (63%)
Last 3 years: 38 of 83 (46%)
Compare that to Montgomery:
2021: 10 of 30 (33%)
2022: 16 of 32 (50%)
2023: 21 of 32 (66%)
Last 3 years: 47 of 94 (50%)
Both struggled to hit 6 IP in 2021 with '22/'23 much better for both, but pretty close when you're looking at IP/game.
The big advantage to Montgomery is he's thrown a lot more innings overall over the past 3 seasons (157, 178, 188) to Snell (128, 128, 180), although some of that can be attributed to Snell missing some time in '21 with a few smaller injuries. And yes, Snell walks a lot of guys. But is that something Breslow and Bailey might think they can improve while keeping his K rate high? I don't know the answer to that, maybe it's not possible, but I would think that version of Blake Snell would be pretty valuable in a division with such potent offenses.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what kind of contracts these guys get, both heading into their age 31 season.
A certain subset of people on SoSH are always quite optimistic about how big-name many FAs we're going to sign. My prediction: they sign one of JMont or Imanaga. Unfortunately there are 25 teams out there looking for SPs and there's no sign this ownership group will ever spend like the LAD or NYM (which, admittedly, is rarified air)
I'm OK not spending like LAD or NYM. Not so much teams like TOR and HOU and TEX. They can easily afford two quality starters while being mid-upperclass spenders instead of upper-upper class. But upper-middle class is not an option. Last year gets a mulligan for taking the opportunity to get under the tax. Not this year.
That's why I am really confident they get one of Montgomery or YY. I think ownership recognizes that this is a "put up or shut up" offseason and I think they fully understand that coming out of this with say, Wacha and Gioliti, would be an absolute disaster for them. The team needs a shot of adrenaline to get people back interested again
I’m surprised to see references to JM3 having been banned from the thread. I can only assume JMOH has him confused with another poster because JM3’s signal to noise is pretty peerless. If that happened, can someone please rectify it immediately?
I didn't want Lugo, but I've got to say, if the Sox truly did target him and went so far as to be one of his top 4 bidders and didn't land him, that is tough.
To be clear, I want them going after (and landing) much bigger pieces than Seth Lugo, but if he was someone Breslow targeted and they didn't get it done, that's not great and does make me a little less "confident" in the camp of it just meaning they're pleased with where they're at with other free agents.
Really hope Cotillo is flat out wrong on this one.
I've been a lurker/whatever I am now probably on a daily basis since the ARod will he/won't he and Curt Schilling Thanskgiving dinner days. That of course qualifies me for nothing, but I'll add that I rarely post out of consideration for the signal-to-noise ratio here, which is something I appreciate a great deal. That being said, the animus and vitriol has risen appreciably for whatever reason over the past few years, and it's disappointing to say the least as this is a place that I hold in high esteem in terms of what being a fan of the Red Sox means to me and no doubt to so many of you.
The 'Win it For' is a shining example of that.
My grandfather was the son of immigrants, and the first in his family to go to college; and I never met the man, but I inherited his fandom, passed down to me by my mother. He became a lifelong Red Sox fan while attending Tufts to become a dentist. His fond memories of sitting out on the roof at night as a young man in Boston listening to Red Sox games on his radio are important to me - an experience and affinity I share with a stranger, not unlike what I share with all of you.
I won't invite anyone to sing kumbaya or implore us all to get along, but man, let's agree to disagree and remember that healthy discourse is a fine thing, and a great many of us have become wiser and more knowledgeable fans (and dare I say at times people) for listening to, and entertaining different sides of a healthy debate.
+1
I didn't know "you can sit out
... Champ" meant JM3 is banned. Dopes, please ban me too if that's the kind of board you're operating #stand with JM3.
Or, they were lukewarm on him and put in an offer, but not a “we have to get him offer.” I’m hoping he’s saving his bullets.
OK folks again I believe abs asked us to take it all to backwash if we have a problem JMOH was completely wrong in what he said, but bring it to backwash it’s not a main board topic.
Lugo also chose the Royals over the Braves. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about.
Kutter Crawford is a much, much better option than Lugo, in my book. I suspect we’re gonna get someone for the back end (Giolito, Flaherty, Paxton) so we can deal Pivetta for a 2B. But Lugo at $45M for three years in the AL East is not a great catch.
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Oh, I strongly agree. I was incredibly “meh” on Lugo. My take was more IF Breslow wanted him and the Sox were outbid, that would be problematic. Or, put another way, I hope Ian Browne is more plugged in than Chris Cotillo, based on the content in their tweets.
I’d really like to see what Breslow and Bailey could do with Giolito - but I want him (or anyone) with more control than one season. Having to cobble together a rotation from left over pieces year in and year out has predictably led to some really bad products on the field.
Which isn’t to say he should be their only addition to the rotation, but it’s not far fetched to think that he might thrive with Bailey. His issues in Cleveland are the only things that give me any pause there. ChW and LAA are just clueless organizations. ChW would probably find a way to ruin Verlander - even though he’s probably a robot.
Feel like you're reading a bit too much into Cotillo's tweet. They were in the "top 4" could mean only four teams made an offer and/or the Sox valued him a lot less. I think the fact that he signed: (1) with the Royals; and (2) before Yamamoto is a pretty good sign that the Royals offer was likely considerably better than other offers. I don't think it's a sign of anything more than the Royals valued him more than the Sox (maybe a lot more). Maybe if we were a Lugo away from competing, or there were clearer reports that he was a top target of the Sox and we lost a bidding war, that would be a concern. I don't think Cotillo's tweet indicates anything of the sort.
We may be targeting 2 SP upgrades but I’m getting a little nervous about landing even 1 high impact upgrade. There is so much demand right now and the supply seems quite limited if rentals are taken off the board. Really curious about what Breslow is going to do if Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery all sign elsewhere, which may be more probable than not. I’d love to have an Imanaga signing to take some of the pressure off.
Does it fell like this Ohtani contract is going to set some new kind of standard with teams that will inflate the AAVs on the surface?
I’m not going to be surprised if YY now gets a 12 year deal worth 420 with $300M of it deferred to 2035-2040 or something. And knowing that the Dodgers are now meeting with him, I feel like this is the exact kind of offer they are going to make to him — and it scares the shit out of me.
I’m not going to be surprised if YY now gets a 12 year deal worth 420 with $300M of it deferred to 2035-2040 or something. And knowing that the Dodgers are now meeting with him, I feel like this is the exact kind of offer they are going to make to him — and it scares the shit out of me.
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