View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1596977334069829632I’ll be very interested to see the numbers here.
Is your latest band project called Jon Abby and the Small Sample Sizes? Dude missed 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched pretty durn ok for his first year back (4.33 era in 113 inning). FIP/XERA didn't like him as much, he was a bit prone to the long ball (1.5/9 innings), he's 31 and seems to get dinged up a bunch. Before TJ dude was freaking nails and anecdotally guys that are going to bounce back often do so in year 2 after the knife (citation: I think I've read or maybe heard that somewhere. Maybe. So data). That playoff performance was pretty bad thoughBowden says the Clevinger deal is 1/12 but still not really announced.
View: https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1597283581897760768
Pretty much every FA is flawed in one way or another, but a reminder that the last time we saw Clevinger was two games in this postseason, his combined line:
2.2 9 8 7 3 3
Yes, that is a 23.63 ERA, but just a 13.99 FIP. 1.777 OPS allowed, that doesn't seem good.
Curious to see the terms. Seemed like a good fit, though if Houston went 3 years I get not wanting to be in on that.Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
3m
The Houston #Astros are finalizing a deal for free-agent first baseman Jose Abreu.
I'm not saying that Boston can't make the playoffs next year, but Houston is clearly better set up to win now so it makes sense that they'd be willing to borrow a little bit from the future by taking the risk of a 3rd year.3 years, per Nightengale.
The only downside I can see (and it's a stretch to find one) is base running. Astros love to take extra bases and force the defense into mistakes. Abreu dictates the middle of the order now having a station-to-station guy.What’s wrong with 3 years? 134 OPS+ last year, 133 for his career. Seemed like a reasonable deal for the Sox to make given their processed need for power and oodles and oodles of cash. Guy seemed like an absolute perfect fit.
He'll be 36 next year and his power was way down this year. 15 HR in 679 PA (he had 19 in the COVID year). Given that he is not the only option out there, I can see 3 years being a bridge too far for a team that is going for it but not *going for it*.What’s wrong with 3 years? 134 OPS+ last year, 133 for his career. Seemed like a reasonable deal for the Sox to make given their processed need for power and oodles and oodles of cash. Guy seemed like an absolute perfect fit.
His third year will be for a 38 year old who can only play 1B or DH. For a team that seems to prefer players having some positional versatility, that seems less than ideal.Fair, and I get that you’d rather have a guy that age on a shorter rather than longer team deal but a third year hardly seems outrageous for a guy this good. That being said, even if the Sox were in on him, there’s no logical reason he’d prefer the Sox over the Astros.
If true, the shortstop market will be quite rich.Heyman says 3 years about 20 mil AAV. Fangraphs' expert guessed 2 and 18, so looks like Houston was aggressive.
Two playoff games is a bigger deal than two regular season games but I’ll defer to Mike Petriello (click through for more info):Is your latest band project called Jon Abby and the Small Sample Sizes? Dude missed 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched pretty durn ok for his first year back (4.33 era in 113 inning). FIP/XERA didn't like him as much, he was a bit prone to the long ball (1.5/9 innings), he's 31 and seems to get dinged up a bunch. Before TJ dude was freaking nails and anecdotally guys that are going to bounce back often do so in year 2 after the knife (citation: I think I've read or maybe heard that somewhere. Maybe. So data). That playoff performance was pretty bad though
Chandler Rome(HOU reporter) confirmsHeyman says 3 years about 20 mil AAV. Fangraphs' expert guessed 2 and 18, so looks like Houston was aggressive.
Hearing the Astros' deal with José Abreu is expected to be around $60 million.
Yeah, the Astros are better positioned for multiple, deep playoff runs and I would not be a bit surprised if an aging Cuban player may have had his fill of early and late season cold weather games. Playing his home games in a retractable dome and being in the AL West is going to mitigate much of that.Fair, and I get that you’d rather have a guy that age on a shorter rather than longer team deal but a third year hardly seems outrageous for a guy this good. That being said, even if the Sox were in on him, there’s no logical reason he’d prefer the Sox over the Astros.
With full deference to any medical experts on the board, isn't decreased velocity in the first year of returning to the mound pretty typical of TJS recovery for MLB pitchers? And what's the saying.... There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal? I'd have been fine with the Red Sox making that signing if we didn't already have two former aces injuring themselves walking back out to the mound.Two playoff games is a bigger deal than two regular season games but I’ll defer to Mike Petriello (click through for more info):
View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1597293526173171713?s=46&t=AsZ5Q6wo98P1tZVoHdlV1w
https://sny.tv/articles/rays-jacob-degrom-mets-11-29-22To this point, the Mets, Yankees and Rangers are the only teams known to have had contact with free agent starting pitcher Jacob deGrom. Now we can add a surprising fourth team to the list.
According to league sources, the Tampa Bay Rays -- true to their policy of practicing due diligence on every big free agent, even if they don’t end up as a match -- have spoken with deGrom’s camp.
In addition to Tampa, league sources said that several other teams had talked to deGrom. His market does appear solid.
There is virtually zero chance that the Rays will be the high bidder on deGrom. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone offering deGrom more than the Mets will. But the Rays’ policy is to check in to make sure that free agents don’t have priorities other than money.
One league source compared this situation to the Rays’ pursuit last winter of free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, when they emphasized to Freeman the quality of life and the lack of state income tax in Florida.
Is there anywhere where the quality of life for someone making $30-40M per is poor?
Money doesn't buy happiness.Is there anywhere where the quality of life for someone making $30-40M per is poor?
Cross-posting from the main board "Lets sign a starting pitcher" thread b/c Fujinami is almost certain to be used as a bullpen arm in the Majors, but, he's officially been posted:Fujinami I think is likely better used as a bullpen arm, hopefully on a team that can help him with the control issues. The part about "some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools" is spot on, imho. When he was drafted in 2012 in the same draft class as Ohtani, he was actually more sought after (though that was in part because most teams thought Ohtani was going directly to the US), and went to the Tigers in the 1st round. Then the Tigers did absolutely nothing to develop him, protect him, or manage his workload. He threw twice as many innings as a 19yo than Ohtani. I think I've mentioned this here before but a few years ago I saw him make his first start of the season on a cold drizzly early April night at Jingu, and although he was clearly gassed around 90 pitches, he went on to throw over 140. Just criminal usage by the Tigers.
A guy called Yakyu Cosmopolitan on Twitter is, imho, putting out the best NPB content in English these days and yesterday released a video on Senga & Fujinami (and Masataka Yoshida):
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dobhf35uyg
Official: Hanshin Tigers pitcher Shintaro Fujinami has been posted by the team. MLB clubs will have 30 days to reach a deal with the 28-year-old righty.
Ejected twice in his career. Once for allegedly doctoring a baseball and once ...
I had similar reaction to 6/130 for Brandon Nimmo. I’d have a heart attack if Sox did that.Good lord that Judge contract guess. 8 years @41.3m per year. Holy crap.
There was no Red Sox angle to the article. Was not even mentioned. I just pointed out that 0 of 25 he predicted would be in Boston. Any prediction article like that is to get clicks and to fill time in the offseason. No one is trying to feed into Red Sox fatalism.Any list that has the Red Sox signing none of those guys is not a serious list. It is an attempt to get clicks and feed into the Red Sox fatalism and the myth that ownership/management is cheap that apparently will never go away for some, no matter what kind of success they have or money they spend.
Put another way, I will give very good odds to anyone who wants to take zero of those guys signing with Boston.
The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.There was no Red Sox angle to the article. Was not even mentioned. I just pointed out that 0 of 25 he predicted would be in Boston. Any prediction article like that is to get clicks and to fill time in the offseason. No one is trying to feed into Red Sox fatalism.
I mean, it’s possible? If they land Haniger and miss out on Bogaerts, where will they spend the money? They will need a SS, another 1B/OF/DH bat, perhaps another starter and a reliever, perhaps. There’s paths to not spending oodles of money this off-season. I would imagine they will sign one or two of these guys, but singing 0 doesn’t seem impossible.The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.
I'm not blaming you personally for posing a link. But do you honestly see that as a plausible outcome? Is the payroll going to drop below 150 million?
They won't sign Xander and also will let (among others who seem like good fits) Senga, Eovaldi, Conforto, Seguera, Bellinger, Bell, Jansen, and JDM sign non-crazy deals elsewhere, keeping the payroll 60 mil or so below the threshold after spending two months saying that this offseason was going to be different? Nope. Don't see it at all.I mean, it’s possible? If they land Haniger and miss out on Bogaerts, where will they spend the money? They will need a SS, another 1B/OF/DH bat, perhaps another starter and a reliever, perhaps. There’s paths to not spending oodles of money this off-season. I would imagine they will sign one or two of these guys, but singing 0 doesn’t seem impossible.
Considering that Cot's has them at $150 million currently, no. But can I see a scenario where Bogaerts goes elsewhere and they just go sign a bunch of mid-level free agents and low-risk, high-reward guys? Absolutely. I do not want this to happen, believe me. I want them to add the pieces necessary to improve the roster enough to be a contender.The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.
I'm not blaming you personally for posing a link. The article sucks, you don't suck. But do you honestly see that as a plausible outcome? Is the payroll going to drop below 150 million?