Offseason 2022-23 MLB Thread

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Decent. Seems like a value Bloom would be envious of. Has the potential to be a great bargain, not a huge payout if it flops. Could either help the team if he’s good or turn into a decent trade chip.
 

jon abbey

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Bowden says the Clevinger deal is 1/12 but still not really announced.

View: https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1597283581897760768


Pretty much every FA is flawed in one way or another, but a reminder that the last time we saw Clevinger was two games in this postseason, his combined line:

2.2 9 8 7 3 3

Yes, that is a 23.63 ERA, but just a 13.99 FIP. 1.777 OPS allowed, that doesn't seem good.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I'm happy to see Sunshine back in the AL Central. He always seemed like a nice guy having a lot of fun on the diamond. He also always seemed like enough of an idiot that I won't at all mind seeing him lose a few games against his old team.

It seems the White Sox don't want to gamble on a repeat performance from Johnny Cueto, but this still gives them a solid rotation 1 through 5. They may need it if Lance Lynn is approaching the decline phase of his career (he actually pitched much better in the 2nd half last year, but his trend towards throwing more strikes that up in the bleachers wasn't a good look). This also adds a fun a subplot if the White Sox and Guardians are battling for the division down the stretch.
 

LoLsapien

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Bowden says the Clevinger deal is 1/12 but still not really announced.

View: https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1597283581897760768


Pretty much every FA is flawed in one way or another, but a reminder that the last time we saw Clevinger was two games in this postseason, his combined line:

2.2 9 8 7 3 3

Yes, that is a 23.63 ERA, but just a 13.99 FIP. 1.777 OPS allowed, that doesn't seem good.
Is your latest band project called Jon Abby and the Small Sample Sizes? Dude missed 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched pretty durn ok for his first year back (4.33 era in 113 inning). FIP/XERA didn't like him as much, he was a bit prone to the long ball (1.5/9 innings), he's 31 and seems to get dinged up a bunch. Before TJ dude was freaking nails and anecdotally guys that are going to bounce back often do so in year 2 after the knife (citation: I think I've read or maybe heard that somewhere. Maybe. So data). That playoff performance was pretty bad though
 

moondog80

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3 years, per Nightengale.
I'm not saying that Boston can't make the playoffs next year, but Houston is clearly better set up to win now so it makes sense that they'd be willing to borrow a little bit from the future by taking the risk of a 3rd year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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What’s wrong with 3 years? 134 OPS+ last year, 133 for his career. Seemed like a reasonable deal for the Sox to make given their processed need for power and oodles and oodles of cash. Guy seemed like an absolute perfect fit.
 

E5 Yaz

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What’s wrong with 3 years? 134 OPS+ last year, 133 for his career. Seemed like a reasonable deal for the Sox to make given their processed need for power and oodles and oodles of cash. Guy seemed like an absolute perfect fit.
The only downside I can see (and it's a stretch to find one) is base running. Astros love to take extra bases and force the defense into mistakes. Abreu dictates the middle of the order now having a station-to-station guy.
Yeah, I know, big whoop.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Fair, and I get that you’d rather have a guy that age on a shorter rather than longer team deal but a third year hardly seems outrageous for a guy this good. That being said, even if the Sox were in on him, there’s no logical reason he’d prefer the Sox over the Astros.
 

moondog80

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What’s wrong with 3 years? 134 OPS+ last year, 133 for his career. Seemed like a reasonable deal for the Sox to make given their processed need for power and oodles and oodles of cash. Guy seemed like an absolute perfect fit.
He'll be 36 next year and his power was way down this year. 15 HR in 679 PA (he had 19 in the COVID year). Given that he is not the only option out there, I can see 3 years being a bridge too far for a team that is going for it but not *going for it*.
 

BigSoxFan

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Nice move for the Astros. Gurriel fell off a cliff last year (.647 OPS) so even if Abreu continues his age decline, he’ll represent a pretty sizable improvement over what they had.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Fair, and I get that you’d rather have a guy that age on a shorter rather than longer team deal but a third year hardly seems outrageous for a guy this good. That being said, even if the Sox were in on him, there’s no logical reason he’d prefer the Sox over the Astros.
His third year will be for a 38 year old who can only play 1B or DH. For a team that seems to prefer players having some positional versatility, that seems less than ideal.
 

moondog80

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Heyman says 3 years about 20 mil AAV. Fangraphs' expert guessed 2 and 18, so looks like Houston was aggressive.
 

Max Power

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It's too bad JD Martinez couldn't be used at first. Having his right handed bat there would have solved a lot of problems the last couple of years. And it would make him more valuable on the market now. I wonder if he tried and couldn't, or just never had an interest in it.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Abreu's style seems to vary some, but whenever his power numbers have been down, his average has gone up. He's about as consistent of a run producer as you're ever going to get on a 3-year deal (his worst season was a 117 OPS+). He's also not slowing them down on the base paths any more so than Yordan Alvarez.

$20M/yr might be top end on him, but I think Jim Crane is going to overspend a bit on what he wants without a GM who will push back.
 

jon abbey

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Is your latest band project called Jon Abby and the Small Sample Sizes? Dude missed 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitched pretty durn ok for his first year back (4.33 era in 113 inning). FIP/XERA didn't like him as much, he was a bit prone to the long ball (1.5/9 innings), he's 31 and seems to get dinged up a bunch. Before TJ dude was freaking nails and anecdotally guys that are going to bounce back often do so in year 2 after the knife (citation: I think I've read or maybe heard that somewhere. Maybe. So data). That playoff performance was pretty bad though
Two playoff games is a bigger deal than two regular season games but I’ll defer to Mike Petriello (click through for more info):

View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1597293526173171713?s=46&t=AsZ5Q6wo98P1tZVoHdlV1w
 

YTF

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Fair, and I get that you’d rather have a guy that age on a shorter rather than longer team deal but a third year hardly seems outrageous for a guy this good. That being said, even if the Sox were in on him, there’s no logical reason he’d prefer the Sox over the Astros.
Yeah, the Astros are better positioned for multiple, deep playoff runs and I would not be a bit surprised if an aging Cuban player may have had his fill of early and late season cold weather games. Playing his home games in a retractable dome and being in the AL West is going to mitigate much of that.
 

LoLsapien

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Two playoff games is a bigger deal than two regular season games but I’ll defer to Mike Petriello (click through for more info):

View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1597293526173171713?s=46&t=AsZ5Q6wo98P1tZVoHdlV1w
With full deference to any medical experts on the board, isn't decreased velocity in the first year of returning to the mound pretty typical of TJS recovery for MLB pitchers? And what's the saying.... There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal? I'd have been fine with the Red Sox making that signing if we didn't already have two former aces injuring themselves walking back out to the mound.
 

RedOctober3829

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To this point, the Mets, Yankees and Rangers are the only teams known to have had contact with free agent starting pitcher Jacob deGrom. Now we can add a surprising fourth team to the list.

According to league sources, the Tampa Bay Rays -- true to their policy of practicing due diligence on every big free agent, even if they don’t end up as a match -- have spoken with deGrom’s camp.

In addition to Tampa, league sources said that several other teams had talked to deGrom. His market does appear solid.

There is virtually zero chance that the Rays will be the high bidder on deGrom. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone offering deGrom more than the Mets will. But the Rays’ policy is to check in to make sure that free agents don’t have priorities other than money.

One league source compared this situation to the Rays’ pursuit last winter of free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, when they emphasized to Freeman the quality of life and the lack of state income tax in Florida.
https://sny.tv/articles/rays-jacob-degrom-mets-11-29-22
 

Tokyo Sox

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Fujinami I think is likely better used as a bullpen arm, hopefully on a team that can help him with the control issues. The part about "some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools" is spot on, imho. When he was drafted in 2012 in the same draft class as Ohtani, he was actually more sought after (though that was in part because most teams thought Ohtani was going directly to the US), and went to the Tigers in the 1st round. Then the Tigers did absolutely nothing to develop him, protect him, or manage his workload. He threw twice as many innings as a 19yo than Ohtani. I think I've mentioned this here before but a few years ago I saw him make his first start of the season on a cold drizzly early April night at Jingu, and although he was clearly gassed around 90 pitches, he went on to throw over 140. Just criminal usage by the Tigers.

A guy called Yakyu Cosmopolitan on Twitter is, imho, putting out the best NPB content in English these days and yesterday released a video on Senga & Fujinami (and Masataka Yoshida):
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dobhf35uyg
Cross-posting from the main board "Lets sign a starting pitcher" thread b/c Fujinami is almost certain to be used as a bullpen arm in the Majors, but, he's officially been posted:

View: https://twitter.com/thehanshintiger/status/1598211902563577856?s=20&t=MVrHsT9fY9RxGKHnwxzSrQ

Official: Hanshin Tigers pitcher Shintaro Fujinami has been posted by the team. MLB clubs will have 30 days to reach a deal with the 28-year-old righty.
 

RedOctober3829

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Audacy's Tim Kelly has an article out previewing the top 25 free agent predictions as the winter meetings arrive on Sunday. Out of the top 25, he has zero signing with the Red Sox.

--Judge: 8/$330 million: Yankees
--Turner: 8/$264 million: Phillies
--Correa: 9/$295 million: Cubs
--Bogaerts: 7/$203 million: Dodgers
--Verlander: 2/$88 million: Dodgers
--DeGrom: 3/$133 million: Mets
--Rodon: 5/$135 million: Rangers
--Swanson: 7/$170 million: Giants
--Nimmo: 6/$130 million: Rockies
--Contreras: 4/$80 million: Cardinals
--Bassitt: 3/$57 million: Mets
--Bellinger: 1/$18 million: Blue Jays
--Senga: 4/$69 million: Padres
--Taillon: 4/$60 million: Twins
--Bell: 3/$47 million: Cubs
--Taijuan Walker: 3/$50 million: Cardinals
--Benintendi: 3/$45 million: Twins
--Yoshida: 4/$60 million: Yankees
--Conforto: 1/$15 million: Mariners
--Eovaldi: 2/$34 million: Rays
--Eflin: 2/$22 million: Dodgers
--Quintana: 2/$26 million: Phillies
--Jansen: 1/$15 million: Giants
--JDM: 1/$17 million: Orioles
--Segura: 2/$24 million: White Sox

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/gallery/top-25-potential-2022-23-mlb-free-agents-dec#1--aaron-judge--rf-clb59zm9x002001oz2pybnkyd
 

moondog80

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Any list that has the Red Sox signing none of those guys is not a serious list. It is an attempt to get clicks and feed into the Red Sox fatalism and the myth that ownership/management is cheap that apparently will never go away for some, no matter what kind of success they have or money they spend.

Put another way, I will give very good odds to anyone who wants to take zero of those guys signing with Boston.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Any list that has the Red Sox signing none of those guys is not a serious list. It is an attempt to get clicks and feed into the Red Sox fatalism and the myth that ownership/management is cheap that apparently will never go away for some, no matter what kind of success they have or money they spend.

Put another way, I will give very good odds to anyone who wants to take zero of those guys signing with Boston.
There was no Red Sox angle to the article. Was not even mentioned. I just pointed out that 0 of 25 he predicted would be in Boston. Any prediction article like that is to get clicks and to fill time in the offseason. No one is trying to feed into Red Sox fatalism.
 

moondog80

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There was no Red Sox angle to the article. Was not even mentioned. I just pointed out that 0 of 25 he predicted would be in Boston. Any prediction article like that is to get clicks and to fill time in the offseason. No one is trying to feed into Red Sox fatalism.
The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.

I'm not blaming you personally for posing a link. The article sucks, you don't suck. But do you honestly see that as a plausible outcome? Is the payroll going to drop below 150 million?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.

I'm not blaming you personally for posing a link. But do you honestly see that as a plausible outcome? Is the payroll going to drop below 150 million?
I mean, it’s possible? If they land Haniger and miss out on Bogaerts, where will they spend the money? They will need a SS, another 1B/OF/DH bat, perhaps another starter and a reliever, perhaps. There’s paths to not spending oodles of money this off-season. I would imagine they will sign one or two of these guys, but singing 0 doesn’t seem impossible.
 

moondog80

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I mean, it’s possible? If they land Haniger and miss out on Bogaerts, where will they spend the money? They will need a SS, another 1B/OF/DH bat, perhaps another starter and a reliever, perhaps. There’s paths to not spending oodles of money this off-season. I would imagine they will sign one or two of these guys, but singing 0 doesn’t seem impossible.
They won't sign Xander and also will let (among others who seem like good fits) Senga, Eovaldi, Conforto, Seguera, Bellinger, Bell, Jansen, and JDM sign non-crazy deals elsewhere, keeping the payroll 60 mil or so below the threshold after spending two months saying that this offseason was going to be different? Nope. Don't see it at all.
 
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Sad Sam Jones

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Getting riled up that some random list of predictions is going to be wrong and might be clickbait seems weird to me. Why would anyone care? If it's a vendetta to get a rise out of Red Sox fans… well, goal accomplished.

Imagine being a fan of one of the teams that are never predicted by anyone to sign any significant free agents because it's just a fact of life they won't.
 

RedOctober3829

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The guy who wrote the article knowing it would be posted on WEEI is definitely doing that.

I'm not blaming you personally for posing a link. The article sucks, you don't suck. But do you honestly see that as a plausible outcome? Is the payroll going to drop below 150 million?
Considering that Cot's has them at $150 million currently, no. But can I see a scenario where Bogaerts goes elsewhere and they just go sign a bunch of mid-level free agents and low-risk, high-reward guys? Absolutely. I do not want this to happen, believe me. I want them to add the pieces necessary to improve the roster enough to be a contender.