Offseason 2022-23 MLB Thread

DeadlySplitter

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Even though Murphy's numbers probably won't pop off the page by the time he would have been a FA, I think he would have commanded a high eight figure or low nine figure deal in the 2025-26 offseason. 6/73 or 7/88 is very likely a steal
 

glennhoffmania

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View: https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1607937830227185667?s=46&t=PxuC3c52nHmfMzqHEPuB2Q


I cannot for the life of me understand what is going on in Atlanta.

Every extension they sign is like 30-40% below market.
What's the market for a catcher two years before FA? Atlanta and these players understand that both sides benefit from these deals. The mystery to me is why more teams aren't doing this. Cleveland did it for a while a few years back. As long as you trust your personnel guys to identify the right players to extend it makes total sense.
 

splendid splinter

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What's the market for a catcher two years before FA? Atlanta and these players understand that both sides benefit from these deals. The mystery to me is why more teams aren't doing this. Cleveland did it for a while a few years back. As long as you trust your personnel guys to identify the right players to extend it makes total sense.
I agree, buying out several years of team control/arbitration in exchange for a hefty (but not "If you were a FA now" market) contract seems like the kind of thing the Sox should start doing. If they are not going to play in the deep, 10-year end of the contract pool then do that - lock up a few of the player's prime years in exchange for giving up several of their cheap years, and let them go to FA after that if you have to. I'd rather do that with Casas, if he performs his first couple of seasons, rather than try to squeeze as much value out of his controlled years as you can and then lose him in his prime to someone willing to go long-long-term with him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Here's the really remarkable thing about that list. Those players are locked up through the following ages:

Riley, age 36
Harris II, age 31
Olsen, age 36
Murphy, age 34
Strider, age 30
Acuna Jr, age 30
Grissom, age 27 (no extension, just regular pre-free agency control)
Albies, age 30
Wright, age 30 (no extension, just regular pre-free agency control)
Fried, age 30 (no extension, just regular pre-free agency control)

I'll say it's a great thing for the Braves and their current core that all these guys are locked in. I'm not sold that it's some kind of remarkable feat that any team with a glut of young prospects/stars couldn't do with the similar payroll flexibility.
 

jon abbey

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It's also going to be fascinating to watch how that actually plays out a few years down the road.
 

gehrig

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I'll say it's a great thing for the Braves and their current core that all these guys are locked in. I'm not sold that it's some kind of remarkable feat that any team with a glut of young prospects/stars couldn't do with the similar payroll flexibility.
A lot of players want to bet on themselves, so it's an accomplishment to get so many of them to sign early career extensions. Some of those contracts are pretty fair, but a few are among the most team friendly deals in baseball. The Albies contract was almost a scandal the day it was signed.
 

Gdiguy

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A lot of players want to bet on themselves, so it's an accomplishment to get so many of them to sign early career extensions. Some of those contracts are pretty fair, but a few are among the most team friendly deals in baseball. The Albies contract was almost a scandal the day it was signed.
A lot of players want to bet on themselves, yes; and just pursuing an MLB career is already a sign of borderline crazy arrogance about one's abilities. But there's a lot of people acting as though players not signing below-market deals to buy out the last year or two of arbitration is 'betting on themselves', which is a fairly risk-limited bet (since they've already made at least a few million $). It's something else entirely for someone like Albies, who had made what, $350k total? Maybe $450k something? I can't quite figure out the dates quickly, and is being offered a guaranteed $35M. Going from $500k to $35M is a life-changing amount of money; going from $35M to $100M isn't. I'm not shocked at all that there are players out there who would take those deals

Everyone acting like 'oh everyone in baseball would've done that deal' - I suspect there's a lot more of those deals that could be done, but the teams like the arbitration system - the entire point of it is that they aren't willing to guarantee contracts for risk of injury / players washing out after a year or two.
 

NorthwestSoxGuy

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If you’re a Braves fan, it’s going to be an awesome decade of following that team. Even if they never win, it’s a great core group that will anchor that team for years to come.
Reminds me of the 90's teams. Not sure if I like that though, but at least they're not the Yankees or Astros.
 

glennhoffmania

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A lot of players want to bet on themselves, yes; and just pursuing an MLB career is already a sign of borderline crazy arrogance about one's abilities. But there's a lot of people acting as though players not signing below-market deals to buy out the last year or two of arbitration is 'betting on themselves', which is a fairly risk-limited bet (since they've already made at least a few million $). It's something else entirely for someone like Albies, who had made what, $350k total? Maybe $450k something? I can't quite figure out the dates quickly, and is being offered a guaranteed $35M. Going from $500k to $35M is a life-changing amount of money; going from $35M to $100M isn't. I'm not shocked at all that there are players out there who would take those deals

Everyone acting like 'oh everyone in baseball would've done that deal' - I suspect there's a lot more of those deals that could be done, but the teams like the arbitration system - the entire point of it is that they aren't willing to guarantee contracts for risk of injury / players washing out after a year or two.
Albies got a signing bonus of 350k, then played for what I assume was the league minimum in 2017 and 2018. Let's call those two years 1m combined. So he had made 1.35m and then signed a 7/35 deal.

I'm not disagreeing with your larger point, but in Albies' particular case that contract was pretty nuts. If he had at least remained physically able to play he would've blown that guaranteed money out of the water. I believe he would've been a FA after the 2023 season, but the Braves have him locked up for another four years after that for 7m per year. Or they can choose to not exercise the options if he's useless for a total cost of 4m for the last two years.
 

LogansDad

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I will forever have an unreasonable hatred for Wade Miley for the way he pitched the last time I was at Fenway, the night of Pedro's number retirement.

(That said, he actually seems like a good dude, and from everything I have heard teammates love him, so good for him, I guess.)
 

simplicio

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Eh, I think Seattle's just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks with this one.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Their depth chart shows them filling the DH spot with their second catcher and fourth outfielder. In their case, it wasn't a terrible plan, but it seems like a good situation where Belt can help but doesn't have to give them 150+ games. Danny Jansen might lose the most at-bats with this signing.

The number of free agents still available who held down regular jobs last year is probably down to single digits now.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Seems like a bigger benefit to opponents than the team that will still lack power, has a young pitching staff and has to play 81 games there.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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With Correa off the board, all marquis free agents have now signed. No one who was ranked as a top 30 prospect by either Fangraphs or MLBTR is still available. This is what's left and probably covers most anyone who held down a full-time role last year or has hopes of doing so in 2023:

Jurickson Profar, OF (FG #36, MLBTR #33)
Michael Wacha, SP (39/41)
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF (31/HM)
Andrew Chafin, RP ( - /39)
Chad Green, RP (41/ - )
Elvis Andrus, SS (HM)
Shintaro Fujinami, RP (HM)
Michael Fulmer, RP (HM)
Zack Greinke, SP (HM)
Matt Moore, RP (HM)
Gary Sanchez, C (HM)
Jose Iglesias, SS ( - / - )

EDIT: Added Iglesias since he proves me wrong on my assumption that any starting caliber player is probably covered by those lists.
 

joe dokes

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Late to the party, but wouldn't they have preferred trout?

Seems like a bigger benefit to opponents than the team that will still lack power, has a young pitching staff and has to play 81 games there.
And this is not the first time they've adjusted the dimensions there.