There’s no real historical correlation between having great receivers in college and success/failure of QB’s in the pros. Joe Burrow had Chase and Jefferson and still turned out to be great (granted he has had Chase and Higgins). Mac and Fields had great weapons in college and stink in the pros. Stroud had great weapons and is awesome.
Nabers and Thomas are terrific prospects but for the most part they aren’t making him look good. They’re not padding his stats by catching bad passes for big gains, his passes are usually well placed. He’s not relying on quick throws on guys who can get open quickly (like Mac). His arm talent is legit regardless of who is on the other end of the pass (same argument for Penix). On the flip side of course you have a guy like Richardson last year whose stats were deflated by having a lot of decent throws dropped or missed by guys who are working at McDonalds right now.
Now, there’s an argument for both Penix and Daniels that if they go to offenses without vertical weapons, they will struggle because the ability to make those deep throws is a big part of their value but that’s different than saying these QB’s are only good because they have good receivers.
As for his age, I think it’s a non issue. He’s worked very hard to improve the flaws in his game. He’s not good simply because he has a ton of experience and has maxed out his learning (therefore would have less upside as a pro as he’s hit his developmental wall). Daniels 2023 was a much better version of 2022 and there’s reason to think he can still improve quite a bit. You can look at guys like Burrow and Purdy as guys with a ton of college development time (Burrow in years, Purdy in starts) who have hit it big in the pros. I’d be a little bit more worried about Penix in terms of age simply because there wasn’t a huge jump in his skills between 2022 and 2023. He might just be what he is with limited ability to fix the flaws he still has.
his weight/frame is clearly an issue and the big risk teams need to assess. But all the reports about his passion for the game, desire to improve (both which we have seen on the field) and his arm talent make him a high end prospect.
McCarthy has tools but what big time games or throws can anyone point to where he’s put his team on his back and come up huge? He might be a very talented guy, but there’s so little to go off of that he’s a massive risk. His performance in the playoffs was decent but not special. He gets credit for being a “winner” and having those intangibles but in his last 5 games he threw for over 150 yards once. He simply didn’t have the opportunity to show whether or not he can be a guy to carry a team which is what true franchise QB’s can do. His body of work was that of a game manager, and while I think his skills indicate he could be more than that in the pros, it’s a huge unknown.
