Noah's Arc: Song back, assigned to GVL.

dhappy42

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It’ll be remarkable if after three years off Song will be major league ready by the end of spring training. And if he’s not ready, he’d be better off in the minors where he can get regular work and not be the last man out of the bullpen.
 

johnlos

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It’ll be remarkable if after three years off Song will be major league ready by the end of spring training. And if he’s not ready, he’d be better off in the minors where he can get regular work and not be the last man out of the bullpen.
Right, Song getting picked in the draft is bad for Song. DD effectively shortening the relatively small window of development that Song has left. It's a business, but sure hope Song doesn't miss his shot at the bigs because DD wants to screw with the Sox.
 

LogansDad

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Right, Song getting picked in the draft is bad for Song. DD effectively shortening the relatively small window of development that Song has left. It's a business, but sure hope Song doesn't miss his shot at the bigs because DD wants to screw with the Sox.
This is kind of where I fall, too. Like, I totally get the idea behind the Rule 5 draft, and minor leaguers get treated enough like dirt that I think it is necessary, but in this case I feel like this has a really big chance of screwing up any chance the Song had of a real MLB career, moreso than it fucks with the Sox' future plans, and it seems like kind of a dick move in that regard.
 

geoflin

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Agree with the above posts about Song being hurt by this. Unless he gets returned to the Sox and thus becomes able to pitch in the minors he will have to spend this year as the last pitcher on some team's roster and likely not pitching much rather than being able to pitch regularly at whatever level he actually belongs. This year becomes a lost year for his development other than getting a taste of the majors and allowing him to make more money by being paid the major league minimum salary rather than whatever he would have made in the minors. But the result could be the loss of future money due to losing a year of development.
Chad Jennings in the Athletic seems to imply that he thinks the chances are pretty good of Song being returned to the Red Sox, in part because the Phillies have no room for him on their roster.
https://theathletic.com/4242641/2023/02/22/phillies-noah-song-navy-service-reserves/
 

brandonchristensen

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Given that the Pentagon is a giant sucking mass of evil and pro sports relatively harmless amusement, we should always be rooting for people to end up in pro sports. ;)
This is my stance.
(I’m just now realizing after posting this was an old post - sentiment still applies).
 

GB5

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I never knew that Song could get claimed off waivers. I always thought there were only two teams involved in a Rule V pick. The claiming team and his former team. If he stays with the claiming team on their 40 man roster for the year then he becomes that teams property. If they choose not to keep him on the 40, he gets offered back to his former team.

I was unaware that if the claiming team doesn’t want to keep him, before offering him back to his former team, they can put him on waivers, so any other team can claim him?
 

jon abbey

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I never knew that Song could get claimed off waivers. I always thought there were only two teams involved in a Rule V pick. The claiming team and his former team. If he stays with the claiming team on their 40 man roster for the year then he becomes that teams property. If they choose not to keep him on the 40, he gets offered back to his former team.

I was unaware that if the claiming team doesn’t want to keep him, before offering him back to his former team, they can put him on waivers, so any other team can claim him?
I think otherwise teams could help each other out by selecting each other’s players and immediately returning them, so this gets rid of that potential loophole.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Agree with the above posts about Song being hurt by this. Unless he gets returned to the Sox and thus becomes able to pitch in the minors he will have to spend this year as the last pitcher on some team's roster and likely not pitching much rather than being able to pitch regularly at whatever level he actually belongs. This year becomes a lost year for his development other than getting a taste of the majors and allowing him to make more money by being paid the major league minimum salary rather than whatever he would have made in the minors. But the result could be the loss of future money due to losing a year of development.
Chad Jennings in the Athletic seems to imply that he thinks the chances are pretty good of Song being returned to the Red Sox, in part because the Phillies have no room for him on their roster.
https://theathletic.com/4242641/2023/02/22/phillies-noah-song-navy-service-reserves/
OR the team that ends up with him offers the Sox someone else that they prefer vs. taking Song back, and he can be sent to that team’s minor leagues.
 

jteders1

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Noah Song is not even a prospet any longer. The only way he sticks with anyone is if he pitches lights out in spring training. Even rebuilding teams aren't going to waste a roster spot for a guy who needs to be in high A, and been on a boat for three years. He's coming back.
 

johnlos

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Philadelphia Inquirer reported today that Song hasn't pitched off a mound since 2019. As a friend of mine in the Philly org points out though it's a lot easier to keep a pitcher than a hitter on the 26 man roster (can pitch in blowouts), so it was a low-risk move for them. My suspicion is if the Sox get him back it won't be until a (bad) team or two try rostering him and see what they have after a few more months of buildup.
 

natpastime162

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Philadelphia Inquirer reported today that Song hasn't pitched off a mound since 2019. As a friend of mine in the Philly org points out though it's a lot easier to keep a pitcher than a hitter on the 26 man roster (can pitch in blowouts), so it was a low-risk move for them. My suspicion is if the Sox get him back it won't be until a (bad) team or two try rostering him and see what they have after a few more months of buildup.
All the while doing a tremendous disservice to Song. No biggie, it’s just completely fucking over his best shot at a future pro ball career. It’s like the pitching version of Wily Mo Peña. On crack
 

Apisith

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The Phillips are trying to contend. Their payroll is $260m. If they lose a game or two because their ‘pen has no depth, the pressure will be on Dombrowski to quickly get someone who can contribute.
 

SouthernBoSox

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The only way this works is if Song can get MLB hitters out or “has an injury” which frankly wouldn’t be a bad bet given he hasn’t pitched.

He once had all world stuff so there’s a chance, but that chance is incredibly low.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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An injury, real or imagined, simply pushes back the timetable. He would still need to spend a year on another team's 26-man roster to be free and clear of Rule 5 stipulations.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don’t see this working for Philly but a non contending team can surely stash him on their roster and still get him in blowout games which would be a way to get him devopment
 

opes

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So let me get this straight, the Phillies picked up a guy that hasn't pitched since 2019, and toss him on their MLB roster. Got it. Even if they do waive him, there's a good chance he gets through. Sounds like they are just the first team that wants to see if he can still throw a strike. Just a bizarre situation all around.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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So let me get this straight, the Phillies picked up a guy that hasn't pitched since 2019, and toss him on their MLB roster. Got it. Even if they do waive him, there's a good chance he gets through. Sounds like they are just the first team that wants to see if he can still throw a strike. Just a bizarre situation all around.
Not sure what you mean by the bolded, but if/when he gets through waivers, that's the point where he's offered back to Boston.
 

Hendu Candu

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Phillies picked 20th in the Rule 5 draft. Ten teams with worse records drafted players other than Song prior to that, while nine either had full rosters or did not pick anyone. Four players were selected after Song.

It feels like, at the time, Dombrowski was pranking the Sox, but was also probably counting on the fact that he would be able to place Song on the military reserve list for 2023 and not have to keep him on the roster all this year. The Navy's sudden decision after five years probably caught him by surprise.

So assuming that the playoff-driven Phillies can't use a valuable roster spot on a guy who hasn't thrown off a mound in three years, the question is if one of those remaining teams who passed on Song the first time, or didn't have a chance at him in the final 10 Rule 5 draft spots, would find him more attractive now that he's officially available to pitch? Shouldn't that make him less attractive? It seems obvious he needs development time and without roster rules would probably be assigned to High A to start the season.

Would the Nationals, A's, Pirates, Reds, Tigers figure that they're going nowhere so why not give a second Rule 5 spot to an intriguing former top prospect (or give up the Rule 5 guy they originally picked in favor of Song)? Doesn't seem likely that the Cardinals, Mets, Mariners or Padres, all playoff teams who drafted players after Song, would currently use a roster spot on him.
 

Max Power

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Would the Nationals, A's, Pirates, Reds, Tigers figure that they're going nowhere so why not give a second Rule 5 spot to an intriguing former top prospect (or give up the Rule 5 guy they originally picked in favor of Song)?
Even if a bad team had a roster spot, they have to play the good teams. Would Song be helped by getting his lunch handed to him every 5th day by major league lineups? Or even more frequently out of the pen? Seems like a bad idea all around.
 

SouthernBoSox

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If some team kept Noah Song just to have him be destroyed, they still have to keep him on the 40 man in subsequent years. Which teams just aren't going to be willing to keep a 26 year old pitcher who can't compete against major league hitters on their 40 man.

The only way Song isn't with the Red Sox at some point is if he can get Major League hitters out right now. Maybe he can.... but it would be one of the more improbable things we've seen in a while.
 

Harry Hooper

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With MLB starting pitchers hurling fewer innings these days, keeping a Rule 5 claim on the roster of a non-contender seems a bit easier.

I couldn't help thinking of seldom-used pitcher John Trautwein's experience with the 1988 Red Sox. Google turned up Bill Nowlin's extensive profile of John at SABR.org with both playing career anecdotes and the highs (including surprise stint playing baseball in Britain) and lows (including loss of a child) of life after MLB. Here's one story:

Trautwein remembers one moment which allowed him to draw on a talent he had other than baseball. Future Hall of Famer Jim Rice approached him one day, explaining that one of the clubhouse boys needed some help with his math homework. Rice brought Trautwein over to the clubby, and the Northwestern graduate helped the young student for a half-hour or so. Something clicked, and the clubby “got it.” Rice told Trautwein, “I need to tell you something, I know you’re upset because you’re not getting to pitch these days, but I got to tell you, I would do anything to be able to do what you just did for that kid. Anything.”
 
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JM3

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I guess part of the question is...how bad would he be? For example, the Reds last year had 7 pitchers who pitched at least 24 innings with an ERA over 6, including Mike Minor who was 5th on their team in innings with 98.

If Song can pitch 60 innings at a 5.50 ERA but show potential, isn't that a lot better than a lot of what they had going on last season? Every one of those 6+ ERA pitchers was 26 or older.
 

gehrig

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I guess part of the question is...how bad would he be? For example, the Reds last year had 7 pitchers who pitched at least 24 innings with an ERA over 6, including Mike Minor who was 5th on their team in innings with 98.

If Song can pitch 60 innings at a 5.50 ERA but show potential, isn't that a lot better than a lot of what they had going on last season? Every one of those 6+ ERA pitchers was 26 or older.
It wouldn't shock me if he was siting like 88 with bad control on the fastball and had no feel for his breaking pitches on opening day. It doesn't sound like he's thought about baseball for years and both Song and Dombrowski were trying to dampen expectations. If he is returned I bet they don't put him in a game until the complex league starts.
 

JM3

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It wouldn't shock me if he was siting like 88 with bad control on the fastball and had no feel for his breaking pitches on opening day. It doesn't sound like he's thought about baseball for years and both Song and Dombrowski were trying to dampen expectations. If he is returned I bet they don't put him in a game until the complex league starts.
I doubt he's gone a day without thinking about baseball. The issue would be a lack of playing baseball, & it's quite possible he couldn't put up a 5.50 ERA in 60 innings. That's just approximately where the bar is where I think he ends up sticking on someone's roster this season.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Song turns 26 in May, though. Even if you struggle through a crappy year, what exactly is the upside? I guess it’s difficult to know since his situation is so unique, but where would he have been drafted were it not for his military obligations? How good a prospect is he?
 

GB5

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The best option is that he gets returned to the RS or ends up in someone else’s system, gets waived and clears and ends up in High A. How likely is that and even more what are the chances that it ends up in the RS system.
 

johnlos

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Maybe a bad team takes a flier on him, but it’s not like Philly had a high pick in Rule 5.
Good point, but you could imagine if he lasts on 26-man rosters until June it's a different calculus for whatever team that might keep him rest of year
 

JM3

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Song turns 26 in May, though. Even if you struggle through a crappy year, what exactly is the upside? I guess it’s difficult to know since his situation is so unique, but where would he have been drafted were it not for his military obligations? How good a prospect is he?
DD always claims he was a 1st round talent who was only available in the 4th round because of the military commitment. Who knows? Lots of 1st round pitchers bust regardless. There may not be a ton of upside, but a talented pitcher who you have cost control over in their ages 26-31 seasons is a better option for a team like the Reds than some of these guys they had pitching last season.

But yeah, he probably isn't going to be able to do a 5.50 & will hopefully get returned to the Red Sox. Another option may be for the Phillies & Red Sox just to work out a trade allowing the Phillies to keep Song in their system without having to roster him. It's quite possible DD is a much stronger believer in Song than Bloom.
 

JimD

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DD always claims he was a 1st round talent who was only available in the 4th round because of the military commitment. Who knows? Lots of 1st round pitchers bust regardless. There may not be a ton of upside, but a talented pitcher who you have cost control over in their ages 26-31 seasons is a better option for a team like the Reds than some of these guys they had pitching last season.

But yeah, he probably isn't going to be able to do a 5.50 & will hopefully get returned to the Red Sox. Another option may be for the Phillies & Red Sox just to work out a trade allowing the Phillies to keep Song in their system without having to roster him. It's quite possible DD is a much stronger believer in Song than Bloom.
If the Phillies and Sox worked out a trade, wouldn't it be to trade Song's rights back to Boston in exchange for another prospect?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If the Phillies and Sox worked out a trade, wouldn't it be to trade Song's rights back to Boston in exchange for another prospect?
Or a third team gets involved or the Phillies give the Sox someone else and the Sox get a different prospect or compensation.

LOTS of ways Song is not on a major league roster this year AND not part of the Red Sox system
 

JM3

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If the Phillies and Sox worked out a trade, wouldn't it be to trade Song's rights back to Boston in exchange for another prospect?
It's an option, but the Red Sox don't particularly need to give up a prospect if other teams aren't going to try to keep Song on their 26-man all season. They can just pay the $50k. The only way the Phillies get to keep him in their system without him being on the 26 is by trading with the Red Sox for that ability as the Red Sox are the only team that can grant that.

This is all under the assumption that the Phillies value him more than the Red Sox do but not enough to keep him in the majors this season. Who knows?
 

greenmountains

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The Athletic has a great article. The only team in baseball who doesn't need to have him on it's 40 man roster is the Boston Red Sox. For everyone else, he needs to stay on the 26 man roster this year and on the 40 thereafter (unless he clears waivers after this season is over). I believe I had read when drafting him that DD was hoping he would serve the entire season and then look to get a military exemption for him. I'm not exactly sure how he was planning on pulling that off, but I do recall that from the Athletic article after the Rule 5 draft.

If he's traded by the Phillies, the trade partner will need to keep him on the 26 man roster the entire year. DD might hate the Red Sox that much, but I can't see where a trade partner is going to give the Phillies anything for him. Rather than offering him back, the Phillies could trade with the Sox, offering something in return for the Sox not reclaiming him (or the Sox reclaiming him and trading him immediately back to the Phillies). I can't imagine that would be a prospect of much (any?) value. I'd rather have the lottery ticket named Noah Song.

What are we left with ? A 26 year old who hasn't thrown a baseball in a competitive environment in 3 years. I'd expect mid to upper 80's (instead of 95 - 97) with a ton of control issues. He hasn't been near competitive baseball. I doubt he's done anything other than what would best be called long toss. He needs innings, he needs starts, he needs to redevelop. I believe that there is a disproportionately high probability that he ends up being offered back to the Red Sox. He will not need to be part of the 40 man roster.

Sitting at the end of the bullpen, waiting for mop up appearances will not help him (re)develop as a prospect. And even if that happens with another team, the team would need to keep a 40 man roster spot for him in the year(s) after '23. I think the single best outcome (and most likely outcome) for him is to offered back to the Red Sox where he can regain his arm strength and begin his development as a major league prospect. He's an exciting prospect, for 2025...a 28 yo with extremely limited wear and tear on his arm. But I think it's two years back in developing arm strength and command.

This is almost an entire unique situation. Only Roger Staubach comes to mind. Roger Staubach was a 27 yo rookie in 1969 after his military commitment. He appeared in 6 games, starting 1 and threw 47 passes. In 1970 he appeared in 8 games, starting in 3 and threw 82 passes. His completion % (with SSS caveat and in an era when completion % was bad) sucked. He didn't start until '71. And as it turned out, Roger Staubach ended as a Hall of Fame QB.

FIRST TIME POST , but I've been here every day for 15 years. Who knew Noah Song would be my reason for posting? (And I know....I think, I believe, I'd expect, I doubt.... I know. Please be easy on me.)
 
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Hendu Candu

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Song turns 26 in May, though. Even if you struggle through a crappy year, what exactly is the upside? I guess it’s difficult to know since his situation is so unique, but where would he have been drafted were it not for his military obligations? How good a prospect is he?
He was 100 percent a first-round talent that year.
 

CaptainLaddie

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The Athletic has a great article. The only team in baseball who doesn't need to have him on it's 40 man roster is the Boston Red Sox. For everyone else, he needs to stay on the 26 man roster this year and on the 40 thereafter (unless he clears waivers after this season is over). I believe I had read when drafting him that DD was hoping he would serve the entire season and then look to get a military exemption for him. I'm not exactly sure how he was planning on pulling that off, but I do recall that from the Athletic article after the Rule 5 draft.

If he's traded by the Phillies, the trade partner will need to keep him on the 26 man roster the entire year. DD might hate the Red Sox that much, but I can't see where a trade partner is going to give the Phillies anything for him. Rather than offering him back, the Phillies could trade with the Sox, offering something in return for the Sox not reclaiming him (or the Sox reclaiming him and trading him immediately back to the Phillies). I can't imagine that would be a prospect of much (any?) value. I'd rather have the lottery ticket named Noah Song.

What are we left with ? A 26 year old who hasn't thrown a baseball in a competitive environment in 3 years. I'd expect mid to upper 80's (instead of 95 - 97) with a ton of control issues. He hasn't been near competitive baseball. I doubt he's done anything other than what would best be called long toss. He needs innings, he needs starts, he needs to redevelop. I believe that there is a disproportionately high probability that he ends up being offered back to the Red Sox. He will not need to be part of the 40 man roster.

Sitting at the end of the bullpen, waiting for mop up appearances will not help him (re)develop as a prospect. And even if that happens with another team, the team would need to keep a 40 man roster spot for him in the year(s) after '23. I think the single best outcome (and most likely outcome) for him is to offered back to the Red Sox where he can regain his arm strength and begin his development as a major league prospect. He's an exciting prospect, for 2025...a 28 yo with extremely limited wear and tear on his arm. But I think it's two years back in developing arm strength and command.

This is almost an entire unique situation. Only Roger Staubach comes to mind. Roger Staubach was a 27 yo rookie in 1969 after his military commitment. He appeared in 6 games, starting 1 and threw 47 passes. In 1970 he appeared in 8 games, starting in 3 and threw 82 passes. His completion % (with SSS caveat and in an era when completion % was bad) sucked. He didn't start until '71. And as it turned out, Roger Staubach ended as a Hall of Fame QB.

FIRST TIME POST , but I've been here every day for 15 years. Who knew Noah Song would be my reason for posting? (And I know....I think, I believe, I'd expect, I doubt.... I know. Please be easy on me.)
Great first post. Post more!
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Red Sox's Chaim Bloom Not Shocked Top Prospect Noah Song Could Play In 2023
Scott Neville for SI/FanNation said:
It turns out, both Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and Dombrowksi were on the same page.

When asked whether he knew Song would be discharged from the Navy -- rendering him available to play this season -- Bloom made it clear that he was well in the know.

"It was not a shock to us, I'll put it that way," Bloom told our very own Steve Perrault and Joey Copponi on the ITM Podcast.
The podcast is linked in the article.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If you're Noah Song.... what do you prefer? To get onto a ML club in '23 even though you'll be the last man out of the pen pitching in mop-up duty or getting bumped all the way back down to Single A but possibly a quick promotion through the mL's?
Asking.... I really don't know. What's the financial difference? Discussion has all been about the teams involved and his career as a player, but not as a person needing to make some dough.
 

JimD

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If you're Noah Song.... what do you prefer? To get onto a ML club in '23 even though you'll be the last man out of the pen pitching in mop-up duty or getting bumped all the way back down to Single A but possibly a quick promotion through the mL's?
Asking.... I really don't know. What's the financial difference? Discussion has all been about the teams involved and his career as a player, but not as a person needing to make some dough.
I'd go for the major-league opportunity - even if he gets smacked around due to rust/inexperience, he'll get to always say that he was a Major League pitcher. No guarantee of that if he starts at A ball.
 

joe dokes

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If you're Noah Song.... what do you prefer? To get onto a ML club in '23 even though you'll be the last man out of the pen pitching in mop-up duty or getting bumped all the way back down to Single A but possibly a quick promotion through the mL's?
Asking.... I really don't know. What's the financial difference? Discussion has all been about the teams involved and his career as a player, but not as a person needing to make some dough.
MLB today, tomorrow and always. Salary diff could be between a salary of 6k and 600k. He can always go back to the minors next year. He may *never* get a year in the majors.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Thanks. Honestly didn't know.
I was wondering if it was in his possible self-interest to deliberately throw meatballs and get the snot kicked out of him so he'd return to the Sox single-A and could acclimate a bit more. Of course that might just happen anyways. I'd be happy as hell for him if he legitimately pitched his way onto the Philly roster though.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He’s a professional athlete. I’m sure he thinks he can perform at the highest levels. If he’s the kind of guy who would prefer to be in A ball, than I doubt he will ever make it.
 

LogansDad

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He’s a professional athlete. I’m sure he thinks he can perform at the highest levels. If he’s the kind of guy who would prefer to be in A ball, than I doubt he will ever make it.
Agreed. Also, just being on a 40 man roster (no matter how short the time) is pretty life changing financially. Especially for someone who has been on an active duty military salary, even if he was a commissioned officer. A Lt Junior Grade (his highest rank) makes somewhere around $70-80K a year. If he sticks on the 40 man, he will make that in a month or so.