NFL QB Carousel

[trekfan55]

I thought it would be fun to have a catch-all thread about the evolving QB picture in the NFL. There are plenty of moving figures.

• Matt Stafford is leaving Detroit
• Deshaun Watson wants to leave Houston
• Drew Brees is retiring
• Phillip Rivers is retiring
• The Bears are expected to move on from Mitch Trubisky
• The Pats need a QB
• Aaron Rodgers is said to want to leave (and the Packers drafted a QB last year)

There's a lot more to unpack here. Will the Eagles move on from Carson Wentz (salary cap is an issue there)?
Will the Niners replace Jimmy G? (they have said no, but who knows)

Those two would also bring new QBs into the mix.

And to add a bit of drama, there are several good QBs in the draft (besides the obvious Lawrence to the Jags pick).

Things are too fluid now to make a call, but I think it´s great to start looking and analyzing.

Now, what teams need a QB next year?
The Jags (Lawrence)
The Saints (I think they keep Winston but he may leave)
The Colts (Brisset is not the answer methinks)
Broncos maybe?
FootballTeam maybe?
Bears
Lions


This is before some more moves are made, and it will rake some time, unlike HC hires. So let's have some fun in the offseason.

 

[DJnVa]

• Drew Brees is retiring

Did I miss an announcement or just reading the tea leaves?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Adding to the list:
LAR seem to want to move on from Goff
Cowboys technically don't have a QB,

Edit- and rumor is the Panthers are looking for a QB as well with Bridgewater in likely the last year of that deal before he gets cut

 

[trekfan55]

Did I miss an announcement or just reading the tea leaves?

Mostly tea leaves, but it's been on the NFLN crawl a lot.

He clearly did not have it by the end of the season.

 

[luckiestman]

Pitt said they can’t afford Ben (heard on Lombardi pod).

 

[j-man]

my 02
Stafford to denver for 2 2nds and QB Drew lock
Watson to NYJ for 2 '25 A 2nd in 21 and 22 that moves up to a 1st if watson makes the pro bowl Danold goes to hou along with a 3rd in 21'22
bears make a play for cam on a 1-y deal worth 2 mil and up to 7 mil if he starts 16 games
Pats sign A Dalton to a 1-y 5 mil deal that is up to 5 mil more if ne wins 10 games or daiton throws 20 td's passes
Rodgers leaves Green Bay after 2021 for drumroll vegas veags gives up a 22 1st 3rd and 23 2nd

 

[Super Nomario]

Now, what teams need a QB next year?
The Jags (Lawrence)
The Saints (I think they keep Winston but he may leave)
The Colts (Brisset is not the answer methinks)
Broncos maybe?
FootballTeam maybe?
Bears
Lions

My list of teams that need a QB is similar: Jags, Colts, Bears, Lions, plus Texans, (assuming Watson is out), Cowboys (until they re-sign Dak), and of course, your New England Patriots. (7 total)

Then I've got a group of teams that should be looking to improve: the Saints (who have Taysom Hill still), Broncos (Drew Lock), and Washington (Alex Smith), plus the Jets, Steelers, Eagles (who probably won't / can't), and Panthers. (7 total)

There's also a group of teams that might be interested in a QB, either because their current starter is just OK (Raiders, Rams, 49ers, Vikings, Dolphins, and Giants) or old (Buccaneers, Falcons). (8 total)

As for veteran options, Watson, Stafford, and maybe Marcus Mariota in trade (3). Free agents: Dak, Jameis, Cam, Brissett, Trubisky, Fitz, Tyrod Taylor, and Dalton are starterish, if you squint (8 players). Then you've got the big four from the draft: Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, and maybe some people like Mac Jones or Kyle Trask enough to hand the reins to them early.

My read is that there are about as many available QBs for the teams that need QBs, and the X factor is one of the teams that doesn't need one drafting one. Like, if Atlanta drafts Zach Wilson, they probably stick with Ryan for another year and let Wilson sit, and that's one less guy for one of the QB-needy teams. Other moves could potentially be neutral in terms of QB availability; e.g., if the 49ers trade for Stafford or Watson, Jimmy G likely becomes available.

 

[Sille Skrub]

I think Jimmy G ultimately ends up back here in NE.

No real info, just a gut feeling I've had since October.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Free agents: Dak, Jameis, Cam, Brissett, Trubisky, Fitz, Tyrod Taylor, and Dalton are starterish, if you squint (8 players).

Is this based on health because it seems a bit bearish for a 27-year-old guy who was on pace for nearly 6,000 yards in 2020 before going down? He's about to get paid big, big dollars to be someone's starting QB.

 

[Super Nomario]

Is this based on health because it seems a bit bearish for a 27-year-old guy who was on pace for nearly 6,000 yards in 2020 before going down? He's about to get paid big, big dollars to be someone's starting QB.

Yeah, I did not write that clearly. I was listing all the FA who were at least starterish, Dak is several cuts above the rest.

 

[BaseballJones]

Dak is fine. He's been working with a group of phenomenal weapons and yet his career passer rating is only 97.3. Yes that's much better than Cam's so obviously he'd be a big upgrade there, but I don't think Dak is elite. But he will likely get paid as if he was elite.

 

[Mooch]

Starting to hear talk on Twitter that Stafford to San Francisco is very likely.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Starting to hear talk on Twitter that Stafford to San Francisco is very likely.

If true, one less bidder for Watson. And of course that means Jimmy G is available as well but that was a foregone conclusion.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Starting to hear talk on Twitter that Stafford to San Francisco is very likely.

From anyone credible?

 

[trekfan55]

Starting to hear talk on Twitter that Stafford to San Francisco is very likely.

As a Niner fan I would love that, as long as they keep the 12th pick,.

They do have the weapons in Deebo, Ayiuk, Kittle, Jordan Reed, and Mostert and Wilson at RB.

 

[steveluck7]

As a Niner fan I would love that, as long as they keep the 12th pick,.

They do have the weapons in Deebo, Ayiuk, Kittle, Jordan Reed, and Mostert and Wilson at RB.

If Stafford nets the #12 pick, Watson is going for something beyond the Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams trades

 

[Cellar-Door]

If Stafford nets the #12 pick, Watson is going for something beyond the Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams trades

I mean... he should.
DeShaun Watson is the single highest value asset ever traded in the NFL.
He's an elite QB, young, locked up and proven. That's far more valuable than any other position (Tunsil, Adams, etc.), and far more valuable than a pick that lets you draft a guy who MIGHT end up being Watson (Goff, RGII etc.) even with the discounting that happens when you have a guy demanding a trade he should net a ton.

 

[ManicCompression]

I mean... he should.
DeShaun Watson is the single highest value asset ever traded in the NFL.
He's an elite QB, young, locked up and proven. That's far more valuable than any other position (Tunsil, Adams, etc.), and far more valuable than a pick that lets you draft a guy who MIGHT end up being Watson (Goff, RGII etc.) even with the discounting that happens when you have a guy demanding a trade he should net a ton.

The fascinating thing is that unlike the draft day players, he has leverage! He doesn't have to go anywhere he doesn't want to and could limit the return to something much more reasonable.

 

[rodderick]

I mean... he should.
DeShaun Watson is the single highest value asset ever traded in the NFL.
He's an elite QB, young, locked up and proven. That's far more valuable than any other position (Tunsil, Adams, etc.), and far more valuable than a pick that lets you draft a guy who MIGHT end up being Watson (Goff, RGII etc.) even with the discounting that happens when you have a guy demanding a trade he should net a ton.

I think the NFL overestimates draft picks in general. In the last 20 years, I don't think there is a sequence of 3 Patriots first rounders I wouldn't have traded for a 25 yo top 5 QB under contract. Looking back at the entire history of the franchise, the only group I probably wouldn't give up for Watson is the Bledsoe, McGinest, Law trifecta from '93-'95.

 

[luckiestman]

I think the NFL overestimates draft picks in general. In the last 20 years, I don't think there is a sequence of 3 Patriots first rounders I wouldn't have traded for a 25 yo top 5 QB under contract. Looking back at the entire history of the franchise, the only group I probably wouldn't give up for Watson is the Bledsoe, McGinest, Law trifecta from '93-'95.

I agree but the full story includes the cap implications. This player at this number vs. these three other players at their number and if we didn’t have them what could we afford in the free agency market.

 

[rodderick]

I agree but the full story includes the cap implications. This player at this number vs. these three other players at their number and if we didn’t have them what could we afford in the free agency market.

He'll be very affordable for a player of his caliber. And having a premier QB makes it so you don't necessarily need to pay for top tier talent at other positions to be competitive.

 

[luckiestman]

He'll be very affordable for a player of his caliber. And having a premier QB makes it so you don't necessarily need to pay for top tier talent at other positions to be competitive.

I’m more commenting on the value of 3 first round picks and their full value. It’s not just the talent, it’s the talent at the cap number. I’d take Watson too.

 

[Kliq]

I mean... he should.
DeShaun Watson is the single highest value asset ever traded in the NFL.
He's an elite QB, young, locked up and proven. That's far more valuable than any other position (Tunsil, Adams, etc.), and far more valuable than a pick that lets you draft a guy who MIGHT end up being Watson (Goff, RGII etc.) even with the discounting that happens when you have a guy demanding a trade he should net a ton.

If we are doing a Bill Simmons-style NFL Trade Value ranking; Mahomes is definitely number one. Watson would have to be number two, right? Maybe Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Wilson are in the conversation, or perhaps someone is really high on Herbert, or thinks Burrow is going to come back fine and be great, but Watson is probably #2 due to his age/proven consistency.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1355280011549437955

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1355280011549437955

I'm sure he'd love to live/play in LA near his Highland Park buddy Kershaw.

 

[Mooch]

The Rams would have to do some salary cap magic to deal for Stafford, I think. They’re projected to be $30+M over before they do anything this off-season.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/49ers_access/status/1355159062925643777?s=21


All the better if true for the Pats

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/49ers_access/status/1355159062925643777?s=21


All the better if true for the Pats

Yup. Takes Niners out of Watson and would be zero acquisition cost for the Jimmy G fallback option.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Unless JG, as a free agent, wants to go elsewhere

 

[Captaincoop]

Yup. Takes Niners out of Watson and would be zero acquisition cost for the Jimmy G fallback option.

Perfect. Come to papa.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Unless JG, as a free agent, wants to go elsewhere

Sure, but I think in order of attractiveness the options at QB are:
1. Jimmy G on the minimum w/ incentives
2. A player not named Jimmy G
3. Jimmy G on a non-mimum contract
4. Jimmy G on his current contract

 

[BigSoxFan]

Unless JG, as a free agent, wants to go elsewhere

Not too many starting spots available for a guy like him though. You’d have to think Pats would be pretty competitive on that front. There is, of course, no proof yet that they’re interested.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Not too many starting spots available for a guy like him though. You’d have to think Pats would be pretty competitive on that front. There is, of course, no proof yet that they’re interested.

I wonder if he might consider the Bears ... if Chicago ditches Mitch

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Perfect. Come to papa.

View: https://youtu.be/gpOzAxngZMI

 

[kelpapa]

View: https://twitter.com/49ers_access/status/1355159062925643777?s=21


All the better if true for the Pats

Who is this dude with 1,000 followers, and is he a reliable source?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Who is this dude with 1,000 followers, and is he a reliable source?

C'mon.... you clicked through to check how many followers he has you therefore know he works for a sports talk station in SF/Oak.

I get that people should say who somebody is, but the whole "who is this guy" faux-ignorance schtick on the forum is out of control lately. You know who he is, and can decide on your own if the WEEI equivalent of SF is a reliable source.

 

[kelpapa]

C'mon.... you clicked through to check how many followers he has you therefore know he works for a sports talk station in SF/Oak.

I get that people should say who somebody is, but the whole "who is this guy" faux-ignorance schtick on the forum is out of control lately. You know who he is, and can decide on your own if the WEEI equivalent of SF is a reliable source.

Faux ignorance? Sorry, never heard of him.

 

[kelpapa]

Oh wait. The sterling brown that's a contributor to @49erswebzone. You're right. My bad. I definitely know him.

Edit: turns out it's Sterling Bennett.

 

[JM3]

Betting line on Stafford to 49ers went from around +250 to negative a couple days ago. That's a good enough source for me that it is very likely to happen.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Oh wait. The sterling brown that's a contributor to @49erswebzone. You're right. My bad. I definitely know him.

Edit: turns out it's Sterling Bennett.

my point was... it's a link, you clicked on the link.... it says he works for a major radio station in SF.

Yeah ideally people should say who a person they are quoting from twitter is, but also the posts "who is this guy!, he has 1000 followers?" are annoying, you clicked through to check his followers, it says who he is. Why come back and post "Who is this guy?".

 

[kelpapa]

my point was... it's a link, you clicked on the link.... it says he works for a major radio station in SF.

Yeah ideally people should say who a person they are quoting from twitter is, but also the posts "who is this guy!, he has 1000 followers?" are annoying, you clicked through to check his followers, it says who he is. Why come back and post "Who is this guy?".

Because I didn't know who he was after looking at his profile. Why do you think I posted that?

 

[kelpapa]

His podcast has 18 reviews. How many do you think we're his family?

Edit: it's more than any podcast I would put together had.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Because I didn't know who he was after looking at his profile. Why do you think I posted that?

Because you missed this one?

View: https://twitter.com/49ers_Access/status/1355289905245560833

 

[kelpapa]

Because you missed this one?

View: https://twitter.com/49ers_Access/status/1355289905245560833

I don't know if that helps or hurts my case.

 

[Rook05]

Jimmy G is one of only two quarterbacks to play in the Super Bowl since Tom Brady! It’s our destiny!!

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/JourdanRodrigue/status/1355358804569845764

A source said Friday that the Rams have started exploratory talks with multiple teams, both in regard to trading Jared Goff and about bringing a new quarterback to the Rams.

That means if the Rams deem a quarterback worth trading for and are able to execute such a transaction, they would be willing to eat $22.2 million in dead-cap money, plus the new quarterback’s salary. They also could trade Goff after June 1 (an extremely rare scenario, though there is league precedent) for a relatively small total of $6.8 million in dead money in 2021 (plus $15.4 million in 2022).

https://theathletic.com/2355103/2021/01/29/rams-quarterback-trade-jared-goff/What the hell would the rams even get for him?

 

[Harry Hooper]

You wonder what McDaniels thinks he could do with Goff, since the Rams might flip him after June 1 for almost nothing in return. Even with the Rams paying the signing bonus, though, he's still going to be way too expensive.

 

[soxhop411]

You wonder what McDaniels thinks he could do with Goff, since the Rams might flip him after June 1 for almost nothing in return. Even with the Rams paying the signing bonus, though, he's still going to be way too expensive.

Yah. It would kind of funny for the pats to get him for peanuts and then be able to turn his career around.

 

[JCizzle]

FWIW, Maiocco is one of the more plugged in beat writers for the Niners and he said yesterday that he hasn't heard anything on Stafford to SF. If it is just day 2 picks though, I like the gamble even if I'd prefer that they roll the dice on trying to make a move for Fields if he drops beyond the Jets.

 

[bsj]

You wonder what McDaniels thinks he could do with Goff, since the Rams might flip him after June 1 for almost nothing in return. Even with the Rams paying the signing bonus, though, he's still going to be way too expensive.

yeah. I actually Think Goff is a decent option as a bridge. But not at the price tag. No way.