NFL Playoffs & Seeding Probability

dcmissle

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I'm oddly indifferent to seeding this year so long as the Pats get a home game, which seems highly probable.  Looking upthread, I would not presume a Buffalo win at Tampa Bay, which may be the most underperforming team in the League under Schiano but has notched 2 straight wins.
 
There appears to be no catch-all thread, so a few observations:
 
1.  Big picture, you have to be pleasantly surprised given the injuries.  Sober people here were predicting a 10 - 6 season before any of the injuries.
 
2.  Last night's loss was the most heartening in recent memory.  Frustrating yes, but the only things going for the Pats in my view were the bye week and a coaching edge.  The metrics were bad, many of the intangibles leaned Carolina, and the Panthers are not a good match up stylistically.  I will not be a bit surprised if Carolina makes the Super Bowl.  Sea and SF are like them, but I would take Newton over Wilson and Kap at this point of this season.  In context, last night's disappointment is encouraging.
 
3.  Horrible reffing could well be the difference between 9 and 1 and 7 and 3 (The Bengals loss was a beat down).  That too is encouraging and could well fuel this team going forward.  On the other hand, it is cautionary.  To the greatest extent possible, you have to strive to avoid making a bad call the difference between winning and losing.  That was unfair last night because the two teams were so close.  On the other hand, the Pats game the effing Jets game away, with Brady leading the pack to begin the second half.  Focus.
 
4.  Next week obviously is a another big test presenting a different kind of stylistic challenge.  If the Pats can handle that, I see no reason to be unduly concerned about playing anywhere during the playoffs.  You'd obviously like the easier path, but it is not as if home-for-the-playoffs has recently been a path paved with gold.
 

Briz

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Updated odds via Football outsiders.  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats now 97.5% to make the playoffs (up 1%), 94% to win the division, 36% to get a bye.  Due to the events on Monday night, they have essentially equal odds for the #2 and #3 seed (31-32%).  #4 seed sits at 26%.  
 
Basically, the effect of the loss is exactly what most of us would have thought.  The AFC West is very likely to have the #1 seed (92.5% when you combine KC's and Den's chances with Den favored with 68%).  The distribution of the 2-4 seeds are fairly equal but leaning towards Cinci with the #2 (41%) and Indy with the #4 (45%).
 
Also, the AFC west is basically the only division race left in the AFC (Cinci = 92% and Indy = 99.3% to win the division.
 
As expected, Den and KC have essentially secured a playoff spot.  Both are 99.9% or greater.
 
The race for the #6 spot by the odds appears clearer than expected (at least for me).  NYJ hold the highest probability with 26%.  A 4-6 Pitt team is actually next with 15.4% over a 5-5 Mia team at 14.8%.  However, this is a difference of 0.6% (really different?).  By the odds, these 3 teams are fighting for the final spot.  From there the order goes Bal, Ten, Cle, SD, Buff, Oak ranging from 9% to 2%.  However, 6 of these teams are playing each other this weekend (NYJ @Balt, Ten @Oak and Pitt @Cle).  Also, Mia is playing Car and the Chargers are @KC.  Buff has a bye week.  Therefore, the race for #6 might change dramatically after next week.  Still it is neat to see 14 teams still legitimately alive after 11 weeks of football.  My prediction is Balt ends up taking the #6 even though they are 4th on the list right now.
 
And your Jax Jaguars now have a playoff odds of 0.0%.
 
So basically this is what things look like:
 
#1: AFC West winner
#2-#4: Other division winners with order of preference Cinci, NE then Indy
#5:  AFC West 2nd Place
#6:  Everybody else except for Hou and Jax but NYJ remain the favorite.
 
NFC side:  
 
Philly has leaped ahead of Dallas (53% vs 43%) for the division.  NYG is starting to lurk  :barf:  but their chances remain slim (still only 3.4% to make the playoffs).  The winner of this division will likely have the 4 seed.  Philly does have a reasonable shot at the #3 (21%).
 
Seattle joins KC and Den with 99.9% odds to make the playoffs.  They are 86% to have the #1 seed as NO continues their 1 game-back pace (NO = 12% for #1).  Seattle is now almost 99% to have a bye.
 
The NFC south will likely produce the #2 and #5 seeds between NO and Car (~66% chance).  
 
Det and Chi are basically equal for the #3 seed.  GB's has a 13% chance to win the division but only a 4% chance to win a WC.  Their playoff odds are down 6% from last week.
 
SF is favored for the #6 at 27% and a good shot at #5 (24%).  But they are falling fast (playoff odds down almost 13%).  Ari is starting to lurk for a WC spot (23% to get a WC).  Phi, Dal, Det and Chi are all between 5-10% for the #6 seed. 
 
Min, TB, AND Atl all now have playoff odds of 0.0%.  Stl is basically eliminated (0.5%).
 
Plays out as:
 
#1 Seattle
#2:  NFC South winner
#3:  NFC North winner
#4:  NFC East Winner
#5:  NFC South 2nd place but SF still has a good shot
#6:  SF, followed by everybody else except Min, TB, Atl and Rams
 

DJnVa

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Cincy and Indy still play, so there's a loss coming for one of them. Indy also plays at KC in a game that might be flexed. Outside of that they don't have an exceedingly difficult schedule. It'd be nice if the Cards can sting them this week. Cincy still playing @ SD and @ Pit as well.
 
*If* the Pats can win Sunday night, I like our chances at the #2.
 

tims4wins

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Now 9 teams within a game of the 6 seed. Can't ever recall something like this before. Everyone in the AFC is alive save Houston and Jacksonville.
 
Speaking of Houston, how the mighty have fallen. Cool jackets though.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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RedOctober3829 said:
As of right now....

1. Denver
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. Cincinnati
5. KC
6. Tennessee

Got to be a huge Chiefs fan next week. It might be the only chance the Pats have to go for the 1 seed.
 
It looks like, under reasonable tie-scenarios, the Pats would own tie-breakers vs. Denver & KC (head-to-head and conference or common opponents, respectively), but lose them to Cinci & Indy (head-to-head and conference, respectively).
 

dbn

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Week 14 features IND @ CIN, so one of the can finish no better than 11-5.  I predict they'll each lose one other game, finishing 11-5 and 10-4.  Patriots are at 8-3 with a remaining schedule of @HOU, CLE, @MIA, @BAL, BUF, none of whom are over 0.500, but two of whom are fighting for the playoffs.  They still have work to do for the #2 seed, but it's looking pretty good right now.
 

Stitch01

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Things are really breaking right for the Pats right now.  Houston is collapsing and Cleveland is falling apart.  5-0 or 4-1 finish is now a reasonable expectation, and that gets a top two seed the vast majority of the time.
 

dbn

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Denver's remaining schedule: @KC, TEN, SD, @HOU, @OAK.  San Diego is good enough to beat anyone (and inept enough to lose to almost anyone), but beating Denver in Denver is a tall order.  
 
KC's remaining schedule: DEN, @WAS, @OAK, IND, @SD.  
 
Looks like, to get the #1 seed, NE needs to win out, and then their best chance is if DEN loses this week @KC and KC loses to IND and/or @SD.  
 

Rook05

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The DEN-SAD game is on Thursday night here in Denver. While day games can be mild, temps at night can get chilly, especially if there is any wind or precipitation.

I have to say, I'm loving the resurgence of Cold Weather Peyton.
 

NortheasternPJ

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RedOctober3829 said:
As of right now....

1. Denver
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. Cincinnati
5. KC
6. Tennessee

Got to be a huge Chiefs fan next week. It might be the only chance the Pats have to go for the 1 seed.
Is rather the Pats have the second seed.
 

Stitch01

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Yes.  Homefield trumps all, particularly against Denver.
 
Betting market isnt perfect, but has the Pats as basically a pick em at home and a 6 point underdog on the road against Denver.  That puts the Pats about a coin flip to win at home against Denver and 30% on the road.  That 20% difference seems right to me (if anything a bit understated). 
 
KC isnt good enough to have to avoid and may even be a preferred opponent compared with Indy and the Bengals. 
 
The best argument for having the two seed is if Denver ends up as the five seed, and even then Im not sure I like it.  If the six seed beats the three, Pats still end up with Denver in round 2 and at KC would be much harder than at Foxboro vs KC
 
Pats could of course lose at home or could win in Denver, but the best path is getting homefield and taking all comers.  One seed is very preferable.
 

DanoooME

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Updating the NFC
 
Seattle 10-1
New Orleans 9-2
Detroit 6-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker with Chicago)
Dallas 6-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker with Philly)
Carolina 8-3 
San Francisco 7-4 (wins H2H tiebreaker with Arizona)
 
Arizona 7-4
Philadelphia 6-5
Chicago 6-5
Green Bay 5-5-1
 
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - NO, @SF, @NYG, Ariz, StL (.582)
New Orleans - @Sea, Car, @StL, @Car, vs TB (.618)
Carolina - TB, @NO, NYJ, NO, @Atl (.509)
San Francisco - StL, Sea, @TB, Atl, @Ariz (.491)
Arizona - @Phi, StL, @Ten, @Sea, SF (.600)
 
Seattle, New Orleans and Carolina have their destinies in their own hands over the next 2 weeks.  SF and Arizona would need help.
 

epraz

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SF wouldn't need help; it might need an Arizona loss...to SF, in the last week.
 

epraz

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SirPsychoSquints said:
similarly: Arizona wouldn't need help; it might need a SF loss...to Arizona, in the last week.
 
Maybe true depending on tiebreak.  They'd be tied head-to-head and possibly tied for conference record.  
 

SirPsychoSquints

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epraz said:
 
Maybe true depending on tiebreak.  They'd be tied head-to-head and possibly tied for conference record.  
No - if Arizona wins out (including a victory over SF), they would have a record of 12-4, and the best record SF could have would be 11-5.
 

dynomite

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DanoooME said:
Seattle, New Orleans and Carolina have their destinies in their own hands over the next 2 weeks.
Dallas, too, which ends vs.OAK, @CHI, vs.GB, @WAS, vs.PHI. Wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles & Cowboys are both 8-7 or 7-8 headed into their Week 17 matchup (doesn't it feel like that's happened a lot in the past decade?)

Week 17 could feature a few "early playoff" games:

PHI @ DAL
SF @ ARI
GB @ CHI
KC @ SD
BAL @ CIN

EDIT: Also, ESPN's Playoff Machine simulator is back up and running http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
 

epraz

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SirPsychoSquints said:
No - if Arizona wins out (including a victory over SF), they would have a record of 12-4, and the best record SF could have would be 11-5.
 
Good point.  Anyway, we're probably a bit out from the whole "controls their own destinies" thing really telling you something meaningful.  Before the season starts, every team controls their destiny.  The distinction between control and needing help matters more and more as the season goes on.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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epraz said:
 
Good point.  Anyway, we're probably a bit out from the whole "controls their own destinies" thing really telling you something meaningful.  Before the season starts, every team controls their destiny.  The distinction between control and needing help matters more and more as the season goes on.
Yes, it's very silly.  In terms of making the playoffs, I believe at least 14 teams currently "control their own destinies."  I didn't bother to work out if Tennessee or Baltimore do... I know PIT, SD, MIA and NYJ don't.
 
(Teams that do, I think: DEN, NE, IND, CIN, KC, SEA, NO, DET, DAL, CAR, SF, ARI, PHI, GB)
 

DanoooME

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Since I wasn't clear, I meant control their own destinies for the top 2 seeds in the NFC, not overall playoff chances.
 

dynomite

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DanoooME said:
Since I wasn't clear, I meant control their own destinies for the top 2 seeds in the NFC, not overall playoff chances.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. That's a horse of a different color.

In any event, I'm expecting the Patriots will get the #2 seed pretty easily, either running the table with a 5-0 finish to clinch it (and end up 13-3) or perhaps dropping one of two difficult road games in Baltimore and Miami to finish 4-1 (and end up 12-4).

Bengals finish @SD, vs.IND, @PIT, vs.MIN, vs.BAL. Despite owning the H2H win over the Pats, I don't think the Bengals pose much of a threat for the #2 -- apart from the Vikings (who've been playing better this month) that's a brutal schedule.

Colts finish vs.TEN, @CIN, vs.TEX, @KC, vs.JAX. Once upon a time they looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but something's been wrong with this team ever since Reggie Wayne went down. And not just on offense: their defense has given up 30+ in 4 of their last 5 games. I can't see them finishing better than 4-1 (to end up 11-5), which shouldn't be good enough to grab the #2.
 

Briz

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Updated playoff odds through week 12. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Pats are now 99.5% to make playoffs, almost 99% to win the division and 60% to have a first round bye. They are now in position for the 2 seed at 42% and 18% for home field throughout. Odds of winning the SB = 12.7% (3rd behind Sea and Den).

I'm away from a computer so I will just quickly summarize the rest.

AFC: (team odds)
1) Den 62%; NE 18%; KC 17%
2) NE 42%; Cinci 30%
3) Cinci 41%; NE 28%; Indy 23%
4) Indy 65%; Cinci 13%
5) KC 78%; Den 20%
6) Pitt 28%; Ten 14%; SD 13%; Balt 12%; NYJ 12%, Mia 9%

NFC
1) Sea 86%; NO 12%
2) NO 47%; Car 36%
3) Phi 30%; Chi 25%; Det 19%; Dal 16%
4) Dal 34%; Det 22%; Phi 17%; Chi 16%
5) Car 39%; SF 26%; NO 24%
6) SF 36%; Car 17%; Ari 16%; NO 14%

A couple of things stand out to me. Even though Ten is in the 6th seed right now, Pitt is favored to win the race. Only 4 teams have a legitimate shot at the 2 NFC WC's. 3 of those 4 will make the playoffs. Meanwhile, 6 teams with the same record are fighting for the last spot in the AFC. All of those teams are less than 0.5% to get the 5 seed.
 

DanoooME

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Updating the NFC after the Seahawks domination of the Saints
 
Seattle 11-1
New Orleans 9-3 (wins common games tiebreaker over Carolina)
Detroit 7-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker for 3 seed with Dallas)
Dallas 7-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker with Philly)
Carolina 9-3 
San Francisco 8-4
 
Philadelphia 7-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker with Arizona)
Arizona 7-5
Chicago 6-6
Green Bay 5-6-1
 
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - @SF, @NYG, Ariz, StL (.521)
New Orleans - Car, @StL, @Car, vs TB (.542)
Carolina - @NO, NYJ, NO, @Atl (.542)
San Francisco - Sea, @TB, Atl, @Ariz (.500)
 
Seahawks clinched a playoff spot tonight, they clinch the division with a win in SF and clinch the #1 seed with wins @SF and @NYG
 

dynomite

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And updating the AFC Standings:
 
#1: Broncos (10-2) 
#2: Patriots (9-3) 
#3: Colts (8-4)
#4: Bengals (8-4) 
#5: Chiefs (9-3)
#6: Ravens (6-6)
 
Dolphins (6-6)
Titans (5-7)
Steelers (5-7)
Chargers (5-7)
Jets (5-7)
 
Patriots remain in control of their destiny for a bye, with the delicious CIN @ IND matchup (almost definitely) knocking one of them out of the race next weekend.
 
As for the #6 seed, I'll be somewhat surprised if the Ravens hang on, finishing vs.MIN, @DET, vs.NE, @CIN.  Then again, 8-8 might do it with only those flawed Dolphins/Titans/etc teams behind them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The Ravens making the playoffs seems like a good thing at this point. If we're the #2 seed, we can't play them in the divisional round. And that's a team that could legitimately go into Denver and win again, with a couple breaks.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
The Ravens making the playoffs seems like a good thing at this point. If we're the #2 seed, we can't play them in the divisional round. And that's a team that could legitimately go into Denver and win again, with a couple breaks.
 
 
Bingo.
 

ivanvamp

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dynomite said:
And updating the AFC Standings:
 
#1: Broncos (10-2) 
#2: Patriots (9-3) 
#3: Colts (8-4)
#4: Bengals (8-4) 
#5: Chiefs (9-3)
#6: Ravens (6-6)
 
Dolphins (6-6)
Titans (5-7)
Steelers (5-7)
Chargers (5-7)
Jets (5-7)
 
Patriots remain in control of their destiny for a bye, with the delicious CIN @ IND matchup (almost definitely) knocking one of them out of the race next weekend.
 
As for the #6 seed, I'll be somewhat surprised if the Ravens hang on, finishing vs.MIN, @DET, vs.NE, @CIN.  Then again, 8-8 might do it with only those flawed Dolphins/Titans/etc teams behind them.
 
Projected seedings:
 
AFC
1. Denver
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City
6. Baltimore
 
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Kansas City
- - - - -
New England over Cincinnati
tough call with Baltimore (who will be playing very well at that point, and who beat Denver last year) at Denver
- - - - -
New England over either Denver or Baltimore
 
NFC
1. Seattle
2. New Orleans
3. Detroit
4. Philadelphia
5. Carolina
6. San Francisco
 
San Fran over Detroit
Carolina over Philly
- - - - -
Seattle over San Fran
New Orleans over Carolina
- - - - -
Seattle over New Orleans
 

dcmissle

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NE at Bal in week 16 is shaping up as a very meaningful road test.  Unless the Chiefs crater.  Pats will need the game for a week off, Baltimore will need it to secure a playoff spot.
 

NYCSox

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dynomite said:
And updating the AFC Standings:
 
#1: Broncos (10-2) 
#2: Patriots (9-3) 
#3: Colts (8-4)
#4: Bengals (8-4) 
#5: Chiefs (9-3)
#6: Ravens (6-6)
 
Dolphins (6-6)
Titans (5-7)
Steelers (5-7)
Chargers (5-7)
Jets (5-7)
 
Patriots remain in control of their destiny for a bye, with the delicious CIN @ IND matchup (almost definitely) knocking one of them out of the race next weekend.
 
As for the #6 seed, I'll be somewhat surprised if the Ravens hang on, finishing vs.MIN, @DET, vs.NE, @CIN.  Then again, 8-8 might do it with only those flawed Dolphins/Titans/etc teams behind them.
 
A Steelers 8-8 beats a Baltimore 8-8 assuming the latter loses in Cincinnati. And with a remaining schedule of MIA, CIN, @GB (Rodgers iffy), CLE, that is a real possibility.
 

ivanvamp

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I agree.  That should be a war.  Baltimore has a tough schedule the rest of the way:  vs Min (should win easily), at Det, vs NE, and at Cincy.  I actually think they'll have a chance at winning that division, to be honest.  Cincy's schedule:  vs Ind, at Pit, vs Min, vs Bal.  I could see Cincy going 1-2 over that stretch before they play Baltimore, while Baltimore goes 2-1.  That would put them one game apart for that final week.  And Baltimore has already beaten Cincy once, so if they win, they'll have the H-2-H tiebreaker.  So I could easily envision Cincy and Baltimore playing for the division title in week 17.
 

bougrj1

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dcmissle said:
NE at Bal in week 16 is shaping up as a very meaningful road test.  Unless the Chiefs crater.  Pats will need the game for a week off, Baltimore will need it to secure a playoff spot.
The Chiefs record has nothing to do with the Patriots getting a bye as Denver is going to win that division. The Patriots are in competition with Cinci and Indy for the 2 seed at this point (and with Denver for the 1 if they find a way to lose).
 

tims4wins

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In reality, the Pats are only competing with the Indy-Cincy winner for the 2 seed.
 
If Cincy wins: the Pats need to finish a game ahead of Cincy, since they lose head to head tiebreak
If Indy wins: the Pats need to finish a game ahead of Indy, since Indy will finish with a better AFC record in case of a tie with the Pats
 
After this weekend, Indy goes vs. Houston, @ KC, vs. Jax. So they may have another loss on their schedule.
Cincy goes @ Pitt, vs. Minn, vs. Balt. So they may also have another loss or two on their schedule.
 
Given the remaining schedules, I think the Pats should actually be rooting for Cincy this week.
 

dcmissle

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bougrj1 said:
The Chiefs record has nothing to do with the Patriots getting a bye as Denver is going to win that division. The Patriots are in competition with Cinci and Indy for the 2 seed at this point (and with Denver for the 1 if they find a way to lose).
 
This is true, my bad.  So Cincy is the key and however they fly, up, down or straight, at least one of Bal and NE will have a lot riding on the game.
 

dynomite

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NYCSox said:
A Steelers 8-8 beats a Baltimore 8-8 assuming the latter loses in Cincinnati. And with a remaining schedule of MIA, CIN, @GB (Rodgers iffy), CLE, that is a real possibility.
 
The Steelers making the playoffs after this shitshow of a season would be stunning.
 
How many 2-6 teams have made the playoffs in NFL history?  The 1994 Patriots were 3-6 at their worst.  Anyone else?  According to this article, of the 114 teams to start 1-4 since 1990 only 6 made the playoffs.
 
tims4wins said:
In reality, the Pats are only competing with the Indy-Cincy winner for the 2 seed.
The key is that the Patriots are in complete control for the #2 seed, with a game lead over their competition. As such, I don't think we need to root for anything but Patriots wins (well, and a Broncos loss).

I think the most likely scenario is a 12-4 finish for the Patriots (with a loss @ MIA or BAL) and 11-5 finishes for the Bengals and Colts, but I could easily see the Patriots running the table, too.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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An interesting question is who to root for next week in the CIN-IND game.  Cinci is clearly a better team (they have actually played pretty well even since losing Atkins) but they have @PIT, MIN, BAL afterward, so two tough games around a gimme.  Indy blows but they have HOU, @KC, Jax, so one tough game and two gimmes.  The team we should root for to win the heads up matchup this week is the team that has the higher chance of losing at least one of its remaining three games.  But which team is that?  I'm leaning toward Cincinnati, largely because I like how Baltimore and Pitt are playing and I think there's at least a small chance of an epic KC collapse down the stretch, but I think its pretty close.
 

tims4wins

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
An interesting question is who to root for next week in the CIN-IND game.  Cinci is clearly a better team (they have actually played pretty well even since losing Atkins) but they have @PIT, MIN, BAL afterward, so two tough games around a gimme.  Indy blows but they have HOU, @KC, Jax, so one tough game and two gimmes.  Which team has a higher chance of losing at least one of its remaining three games?
 
That is why I think I am rooting for Cincy. I see them losing one of their remaining 3 after Indy. So they would finish 11-5, and Indy would also finish 11-5 or 10-6. That would basically guarantee the 2 seed to the Pats.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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tims4wins said:
 
That is why I think I am rooting for Cincy. I see them losing one of their remaining 3 after Indy. So they would finish 11-5, and Indy would also finish 11-5 or 10-6. That would basically guarantee the 2 seed to the Pats.
 
I guess we think alike (edited my post while you were posting)!
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
An interesting question is who to root for next week in the CIN-IND game.  Cinci is clearly a better team (they have actually played pretty well even since losing Atkins) but they have @PIT, MIN, BAL afterward, so two tough games around a gimme.  Indy blows but they have HOU, @KC, Jax, so one tough game and two gimmes.  The team we should root for to win the heads up matchup this week is the team that has the higher chance of losing at least one of its remaining three games.  But which team is that?  I'm leaning toward Cincinnati, largely because I like how Baltimore and Pitt are playin Ind I think there's at least a small chance of an epic KC collapse down the stretch, but I think its pretty close
Perhaps, but I would love to see Cincy go to Denver, and the only way that happens is as a four seed.  As such, Indianapolis needs to win this week and lose to KC.
 

cannonball 1729

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tims4wins said:
Now 9 teams within a game of the 6 seed. Can't ever recall something like this before. Everyone in the AFC is alive save Houston and Jacksonville.
 
Speaking of Houston, how the mighty have fallen. Cool jackets though.
 
Reminds me of 2002.  Every team in the AFC finished with between 8 and 11 wins except Houston, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Baltimore.  Oakland clinched homefield for the playoffs with an 11-5 record. 
 

Briz

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Updated Playoff odds from FO.  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats are now 99.9% to make the playoffs and 59% to have a first round bye.  Essentially, they have the division at 99.3%.  They are at 40% for the #2 seed and 19% to get the #1.  They also have a 32% chance to end up with the #3.  For playoffs, they are 53% to make the AFCCG, 27% to go to the superbowl and 12% to win the SB.
 
Quick summary of seeding (Team, % to have seed)
 
AFC
1)  Den, 74%; NE 19%
2)  NE, 40%; Cinci, 34%
3)  Cinci, 45%; NE, 31.5%; Indy, 18%
4)  Indy, 75.2%; Cinc 13%
5)  KC, 95%
6)  Pit, 30%; Balt, 25%; Mia 27%; All other 5-7 teams are < 6% with TN highest at 5.8%
 
NFC
1)  Sea 98%; Car, 1.4%
2)  Car, 50%; NO, 45%
3)  Phi, 37%; Det, 32%; Dal, 18%; CHI, 10%
4)  Det, 45%; Dal, 31%; Phi, 11%; CHI, 7%
5)  Car, 33%; SF, 33%; NO, 28%
6)  SF, 43%; NO, 22%; Car, 13%; Phi, 9%; Ari, 9%
 
AFC East:
Biggest thing here is the Jets have basically plummeted out of playoff contention with only a 3% chance to make the playoffs.  Mia is still in contention.  NE has the division
 
AFC North
Cinci continues to be the odds on favorite for the division (96%).   Pitt actually has the best chance at the #6 seed even though they are a game behind the pace. 
 
AFC South
Indy has the division at 99.9%.  The NFL's favorite varsity squad (Hou) is now has the best chance to get the #1 pick with 60%.  Atl is next @ 10%.  TN, who had the #6 seed last week are now less the 6% to make the playoffs.
 
AFC West
KC is now settling for the #5 seed.  Den basically has a bye locked up at 93%.  NE is now the only team challenging Den for that #1 seed.
 
NFC East
Strange one.  If the #3 seed comes from this division, it will be Philly.  If it is the #4 seed, it will be Dal.  Both teams are basically a coinflip for the division.  Big blue's chances of the playoffs are basically gone (0.3%).
 
NFC North
Det is starting to pull away with 77% odds to win the division.  Their chances are actually higher for the #4 seed.  Chi is still in the mix but fading at 17%.  GB still lurking at 6% for the division
 
NFC South
NE impact on this division is huge.  A "where's the beef" level comeback on NO coupled with a WTF loss to Car has helped put Car in the drivers seat.   Huge game next week for the Saints as they host Car.  Potentially even bigger in week 16 when the Saints go to Carolina.  Loser most likely gets a WC.
 
NFC West
Seattle has basically won the division, secured a bye and won the conference (99%, 99% and 98% respectively).  They have done this with an 8-4 team behind them in SF who is at 77% to make the playoffs as well.  Ari is still lurking but their playoff chances are falling away at 12% (down 13%).  
 
Overall picture.
Den has the highest percentage to make the XFCCG @ 72%.  Seattle is next with 67%, followed by NE at 53% and Car at 49%.  So the odds say NE @ Den and Car @ Sea in the Championship games.  Den is 44% to make the SB and a 21% chance to win it.  Seattle has 43% chance to make the SB and a 26% chance to win it making them the favorite to win the Lombardi.  NE is 27% to make the SB and 12% to win it.  Car is 24% to make it and 14% to win.  Basically, the odds favor the NFC this year to win the superbowl.  Rough math, it looks like about 55%-45% NFC.
 

RedOctober3829

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Next week could be pivotal for the Patriots. If they can win at Miami, they can watch Cincinnati play a tough road game at Pittsburgh on SNF. If the Steelers win, which isn't a stretch, they could go up 2 games with 2 to play for #2 seed.

This week is also realistically the last chance to think about the 1 seed. Denver plays SD on a short week (Thursday) which could screw with Manning's usual rest period he's been doing this year. After this week though, Denver walks through the last 2 games playing Houston and Oakland.

Cincinnati finishes with Minnesota and Baltimore.
 

Reverend

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RedOctober3829 said:
Another factor that could work against Denver's short week is the concussion suffered by Wes Welker. How can he possibly get cleared by Thursday?
 
Modern MedicineTM!
 

Reverend

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Seriously, if he plays, that is not ok. We do not kno wenough about concussions to let anyone play professional football with two even possible concussions in the time frame.
 

Dgilpin

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Not much to add , but if Rodgers comes back next week I feel really good about the Packers winning the north