NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

[wilked]

Now that TB12 faded quietly into the night, Wildcard weekend is over and all eyes are on the Divisional Round. Games / times / spreads below:

Saturday:

• Jaguars / Chiefs, 4:30PM EST, Chiefs -8.5
  • The Chiefs are the heaviest favorite of the weekend. Jags will have a tough time going into KC as their fans will be amped and ready for this game.
• Giants / Eagles, 8:15PM EST, Eagles -7.5
  • The Eagles (and Hurts) should be well-rested and prepared for the Giants. The teams have played each other twice with the Eagles winning both (48-22 and 22-16). I don't think this one will be close personally.

Sunday:

• Bengals / Bills, 3:00PM EST, Bills -5
  • A rematch of the game that never really happened. Bengals fans (and players) have thoroughly convinced themselves they got screwed by the NFL and will come in with a chip on their shoulder. The Bills need to clean up their sloppy play if they want to be a Super Bowl contender. Bengals line is banged up, which I think will be the difference. This one is my match of the week, should be a good one.
• Cowboys / 49ers, 6:30 EST, 49ers -4
  • Two strong teams with storied histories. Both dominated their WC games. Can any team make Purdy look like a rookie? Dallas did force the most turnovers of any team in the NFL this season. Parsons is the man to watch for that. Can the 49ers D shut down the Cowboys offense? I don't have a strong prediction on this game other than I expect it to be entertaining.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Chiefs should stomp the Jaguars. The Eagles should stomp the Giants. But in this crazy world, it wouldn't be shocking if either of those games was close.

On paper, Bengals/Bills and Cowboys/49ers look like awesome matchups.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

The Chiefs should stomp the Jaguars. The Eagles should stomp the Giants. But in this crazy world, it wouldn't be shocking if either of those games was close.

On paper, Bengals/Bills and Cowboys/49ers look like awesome matchups.

The spreads that immediately jumped out for me was SF -4 (Dallas overreaction) and CIN +5. I think the Bengals win a close one. Also, 5 of the 6 overs hit in the wild card round with the total in the TB/DAL game falling under by only 0.5 point. I like the overs in the NFC matchups in the divisional round.

 

[coremiller]

The spreads that immediately jumped out for me was SF -4 (Dallas overreaction) and CIN +5. I think the Bengals win a close one. Also, 5 of the 6 overs hit in the wild card round with the total in the TB/DAL game falling under by only 0.5 point. I like the overs in the NFC matchups in the divisional round.

Agree that 49ers -4 at home seems too low. I think that should be more like -6. Maybe Vegas still isn't sold on Purdy against a good defense?

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Agree that 49ers -4 at home seems too low. I think that should be more like -6. Maybe Vegas still isn't sold on Purdy against a good defense?

SRS isn’t perfect, but it only had SF better by 1.4 and Dallas also played a chunk of the year with a QB worse than the one they have now (assuming we’re officially ready to say Purdy > Jimmy). Dallas had a more impressive playoff performance too, not that SF’s was bad at all. They’ve got a lot of travel in a short week, but they’re too good to be getting 6 here.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Out of all the teams remaining, here is how I'd rank who I want to win the SB (AFC over NFC for sure):

1. Bengals
1a. Bills
2. Jags
3. SF
4. Chiefs
5. Phi
6. Dallas
7. NYG

Basically the bottom 3 can go fuck themselves.

 

[luckiestman]

Order of want to win

Giants
Bengals

I do not think I care after this. I like the way SF plays ball the most. Allen is a beast. Mahomes is great. Hope we get good games.

 

[cshea]

Out of all the teams remaining, here is how I'd rank who I want to win the SB (AFC over NFC for sure):

1. Bengals
1a. Bills
2. Jags
3. SF
4. Chiefs
5. Phi
6. Dallas
7. NYG

Basically the bottom 3 can go fuck themselves.

I'd drop the Bills down to 4 behind the Bengals, Jags and 49ers. I like Allen and Diggs but McDermott is kind of a dink and annoys me and the Bills Mafia thing is overplayed. And if I hear that train horn one more time...

I'd actually move NYG up. It's kind of strange given the history of then and the Pats but I'm fairly indifferent towards them and would take them ahead of Dallas, KC or Philly.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Niners - Like their stye of play, and Purdy is a great story.
Bengals - Big Burrow fan.
Giants - I don't have the hate for them because of the super bowl losses that others do. Also, living in WMASS, have a fair amount of family and friends who are big fans. And I like Dabol. Every other team still alive can screw.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I honestly think all 4 games will be compelling and fun to watch. I even think Jacksonville will keep it close with KC. Giants/Eagles will go down to the 4th quarter. Bills/Bengals and Cowboys/49ers could be instant classics. I'm pumped.

 

[loshjott]

My hatred for the Bills has grown so much in the last 2 seasons I'm actually impressed that I had so much hatred left to offer the world.

I wouldn't be dissatisfied if anyone other than Buffalo or the Giants won it all.

Or the Eagles.

Or the Chiefs, fuck them too.

Bengals, Jags, Niners, even the Cowboys - I'll be happy for them and their fans.

 

[54thMA]

My order of preference;

1.) Cincinnati-fun team and hopefully, the third time is the charm.
2.) 49ers-loaded on both sides of the ball, their 7th round/last guy taken/feel good story QB and how well he plays going forward will be the difference.
3.) Cowboys-rooted for them vs the Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, Steelers 3 times, Bills twice, if they play like they did last night and win it all, peoples heads would explode.
4.) Jags-a 9-8 team winning the Super Bowl after that miracle comeback vs the Chargers would be a great story.

The remaining four teams can all go fuck themselves, I hate them all equally, the Giants more than any of the others actually.

I can't get the image of Dabol shitting his pants/his over the top histrionics on the sidelines the time the Patriots lost to the Browns when he was on that staff, it will annoy me for my remaining days, that was several years ago for me and 10 or 80 pounds ago for him.

 

[BaseballJones]

I used to be perfectly fine with the Bills but I've developed a distaste for them, and it's 100% due (for me) to their fanbase, which acts like they've been this dominant power that has just had some bad luck, and that they DESERVE a Super Bowl title.

I do think the Hamlin story is a point in their favor from a rooting interest - hard to not be behind them for that. But still....they're entitled to nothing but haven't earned it yet, yet their fans act like they're the defending champs or something.

Since I've got a buddy on Jacksonville....I'm going to root hard for them, though they're going to get smashed by KC, I think.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I honestly could care less about the Hamlin situation, but I like seeing new franchises win the SB and I really like watching Allen play. Also Diggs seems like a really good dude.

 

[BaseballJones]

I just saw an article where Gronk talked about considering, this past offseason, joining the Bills (his hometown team). So it got me thinking: Is it within NFL rules to sign a guy at this point in the playoffs? As in...let's say Gronk was in good shape...could the Bills sign him to play in the Super Bowl or something?

I know it's not happening. I'm just asking from a rules perspective.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Yes. For example if Dallas wanted to they could sign a new kicker off the street today. I believe there is a minimum number of players you can sign though.

I listed to Gronk on the Jason & Travis Kelce podcast called New Heights. Well worth a listen especially if you're a Gronk fan.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I just saw an article where Gronk talked about considering, this past offseason, joining the Bills (his hometown team). So it got me thinking: Is it within NFL rules to sign a guy at this point in the playoffs? As in...let's say Gronk was in good shape...could the Bills sign him to play in the Super Bowl or something?

I know it's not happening. I'm just asking from a rules perspective.

Damion Square played for and against the Bengals in the playoffs last year.

 

[BaseballJones]

Damion Square played for and against the Bengals in the playoffs last year.

That's pretty amazing actually.

And if you were Buffalo, and let's say Knox went down, but you managed to beat Cincy, and Gronk said he's good to go, would you sign him? I bet he could pick up in a short time at least a dozen plays that you could run with him pretty effectively.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Gronk talked about that on that podcast. Said something like he'd come back but he'd only play from the 30 yard line and in or something. Said he'd sign one year deals late in the season and just collect rings each year.

I think he was joking. Think.

 

[tims4wins]

If the Giants hadn’t beaten the Pats twice - say they beat Pittsburgh and Indy instead - I’d probably have no problem with them. But I’d easily rank them above both KC and Buffalo.

 

[mwonow]

Doesn't SF have 5 Lombardis? I wouldn't want them in the 6 club.

F* Dallas and NJG. And KC.

Not that hot on the one NFL team that actually plays in NY state winning.

I could live with PHI.

So - hoping for Jax or Cinci in the AFC, and an asteroid in the NFC.

 

[luckiestman]

Damion Square played for and against the Bengals in the playoffs last year.

Great info

 

[StuckOnYouk]

As a Giants fan I’m a realist. Eagles have quite a bit more talent and they manhandled us at home in game 1. With Hurts rested I’m fearing a repeat of that big loss.
Just being within 7-10 points with the ball to start the 4th quarter would be a hell of a way
For the Daboll/Schoen tandem to finish the year.

 

[BaseballJones]

My order of preference to win it all at this point....

1. Jacksonville - would be amazing, plus my friend on the team (great guy)
2. Cincinnati - never won it and it would be really fun to see them go after last year's near miss
...
...
...
3. Philadelphia - they've been a really fun team this year and even though they beat the Pats in SB 52, I harbor no ill feelings towards them.
...
4. Buffalo - obnoxious fan base that already feels like they're the champs even though they've never won it all, but....eh....I guess I've never hated them.
5. San Fran - I like the team and love how they play but like someone else said, I don't want anyone else on the 6 Lombardi level.
6. Dallas - I don't really harbor a ton of animosity towards them, but they also would be on the 6 Lombardi level, so...no.
...
...
...
7. KC - I don't like them and don't want any more fuel for the "Mahomes is really the greatest ever" debate, which IS a thing in some circles.
...
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8. NYG - knocked the Pats off twice, when in neither case did they have the better team. I just cannot root for them, period. (unless they're playing NYJ or Mia)

 

[BigSoxFan]

As a Giants fan I’m a realist. Eagles have quite a bit more talent and they manhandled us at home in game 1. With Hurts rested I’m fearing a repeat of that big loss.
Just being within 7-10 points with the ball to start the 4th quarter would be a hell of a way
For the Daboll/Schoen tandem to finish the year.

As a Giants fan, you should be the biggest dreamer on this board. This is not a great team on paper but they have some things working in their favor. For starters, Jones is playing very well and you’ll have a rested Saquon. They didn’t need him that much against Minny due to the game plan. The DL is creating some nice pressure and Daboll is obviously a good coach.

Philly is clearly more talented but if Hurts isn’t 100% (and I don’t think he is), they aren’t the juggernaut they’ve been all year. Like the Bills, their running game isn’t that great and they sometimes forget that Miles Sanders is on the team. Their passing game is clearly tough but if you can get to Hurts, there is a chance there.

This game may very well be a blowout but I also see 2010 Pats/Jets potential here.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

It all comes down to how healthy Hurts is. That's it.

 

[RobertS975]

Out of all the teams remaining, here is how I'd rank who I want to win the SB (AFC over NFC for sure):

1. Bengals
1a. Bills
2. Jags
3. SF
4. Chiefs
5. Phi
6. Dallas
7. NYG

Basically the bottom 3 can go fuck themselves.

Bottom four for me... don't even want the Chiefs in the SB.

 

[Justthetippett]

I am rooting for a Bengals/Philly SB. I can live with either of them winning. I fear we’ll get KC/SF.

 

[wilked]

I think this list is helpful for finding a team to root for
https://champsorchumps.us/drought/longest-nfl-championship-drought

Both Cincy and Buffalo have never won the Super Bowl in their 50+ years. Both have good dedicate fanbases. In the case of Buffalo they don't have much more...city is struggling with industry, drug use, they just had a once in 30 years blizzard, they just had a player collapse and miraculously recover, they had a psycho shoot up a grocery store. Yes, their fans can be over the top but that is some of the charm. Buffalo is my #1, with Cincy right behind.

Giants and Jags I throw out as frankly I don't think they deserve it. Both 9 win teams, squeaked in, I'm discarding them.

Chiefs I root against as they seem to actively seek out bad humans to play for them.

Philly fans are obnoxious and the recent Pats defeat wounds are still healing - throw them out.

That leaves Dallas and SF. I am indifferent to both, so call those 3a/3b.

1. Buffalo
2. Cincy
3a. SF
3b. Dallas
5a. Jags
5b. Giants
8a. Philly
8b. Chiefs

 

[BusRaker]

Order of want to win

You must be in the <10% of this board that doesn't state it as "Order of want to lose"

Want to lose:
1. Chiefs (ass clown entitled fans that yell a lot and sign shit head FAs)
2. Bills (ass clown entitled fans thinking they will have a dynasty rivaling the Pats)
3. Eagles (ass clown entitled fans thinking they are the best sports town ever)
4. Giants (ass clown entitled fans thinking they are the Pats Daddy)
5. Dallas (ass clown entitled fans still living in the 80's / 90's)
6. Cincy (unfortunate fans that fondly reflect on Boomer Esiason)
7. SF (unfortunate fans still living in the 80's / 90's)
8. Jags (fans? have cute "Duval" chant and survived Urban Meyer )

 

[CantKeepmedown]

Much like my "anyone but the Yankees" mantra in MLB when the Sox are out, that's where it is for KC. Literally any other team would be preferable. Their fans are the most obnoxious of the bunch. They think of themselves as a modern day dynasty. That rules are made to prevent them from winning. That Pat Mahomes is already better than Brady. Chiefs Planet is like 4 Chan light.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

As long as Dallas, Philly (I have close friends that are fans of both teams and have spent years talking about Spygate/Deflategate, just insufferable) and KC (I want nothing to do with Mahomes getting his 2nd this quickly) don't win, I'm good.

I think of all of the games this week will be awesome. Or they could all be blowouts.

Such is the way in the NFL playoffs. Like a box of chocolates.

 

[trekfan55]

You must be in the <10% of this board that doesn't state it as "Order of want to lose"

Want to lose:
1. Chiefs (ass clown entitled fans that yell a lot and sign shit head FAs)
2. Bills (ass clown entitled fans thinking they will have a dynasty rivaling the Pats)
3. Eagles (ass clown entitled fans thinking they are the best sports town ever)
4. Giants (ass clown entitled fans thinking they are the Pats Daddy)
5. Dallas (ass clown entitled fans still living in the 80's / 90's)
6. Cincy (unfortunate fans that fondly reflect on Boomer Esiason)
7. SF (unfortunate fans still living in the 80's / 90's)
8. Jags (fans? have cute "Duval" chant and survived Urban Meyer )

Yeah, they had their glory years in the 80s and some in the 90s. Before the cap really started to affect team construction they had Steve Young as a highly paid backup.

Yet they built a great team when Jim Harbaugh was coaching, which lost 2 NFCCG in heart breaking fashion and a Super Bowl where they almost pulled off a comeback for the ages (Superdome blackout and all). This was before 28-3 of course. Then Harbaugh left, the team again went in the dumpster but Shanahan/Lynch brough it back.
No team with 5 Lombardis can say they are overdue but they have certainly been very close at times and it does hurt.

 

[coremiller]

Yeah, they had their glory years in the 80s and some in the 90s. Before the cap really started to affect team construction they had Steve Young as a highly paid backup.

Yet they built a great team when Jim Harbaugh was coaching, which lost 2 NFCCG in heart breaking fashion and a Super Bowl where they almost pulled off a comeback for the ages (Superdome blackout and all). This was before 28-3 of course. Then Harbaugh left, the team again went in the dumpster but Shanahan/Lynch brough it back.
No team with 5 Lombardis can say they are overdue but they have certainly been very close at times and it does hurt.

Niners fans will get no sympathy from anyone due to the 5 titles but it's now been 28 years since the last one and our recent history has some all-time stomach punches. SF's last five playoff losses:

- 2011 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead and lost at home in OT after two muffed punts allowed the Giants to score the go-ahead/winning points.
- Super Bowl 47, 1st and goal with 2 minutes left to win the game, couldn't score.
- 2013 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead in Seattle and lost on the Sherman tip INT.
- Super Bowl 54, blew a 10-point lead with 7 minutes to go
- 2021 NFCCG, blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead after dropping the game-clinching interception.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Niners fans will get no sympathy from anyone due to the 5 titles but it's now been 28 years since the last one and our recent history has some all-time stomach punches. SF's last five playoff losses:

- 2011 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead and lost at home in OT after two muffed punts allowed the Giants to score the go-ahead/winning points.
- Super Bowl 47, 1st and goal with 2 minutes left to win the game, couldn't score.
- 2013 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead in Seattle and lost on the Sherman tip INT.
- Super Bowl 54, blew a 10-point lead with 7 minutes to go
- 2021 NFCCG, blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead after dropping the game-clinching interception.

Yeah, definitely. Niners have been so close last decade. Obviously, the recent Chiefs SB probably hurts the most. They had that one.

 

[trekfan55]

Niners fans will get no sympathy from anyone due to the 5 titles but it's now been 28 years since the last one and our recent history has some all-time stomach punches. SF's last five playoff losses:

- 2011 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead and lost at home in OT after two muffed punts allowed the Giants to score the go-ahead/winning points.
- Super Bowl 47, 1st and goal with 2 minutes left to win the game, couldn't score.
- 2013 NFCCG, blew a 4th quarter lead in Seattle and lost on the Sherman tip INT.
- Super Bowl 54, blew a 10-point lead with 7 minutes to go
- 2021 NFCCG, blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead after dropping the game-clinching interception.

Super Bowl 54, Emmanuel Sanders is wide open for the TD and Jimmy G throws the ball to another ZIP Code.

Yeah I'm still bitter.

And yes, I said so myself, no team with 5 titles can really claim sympathy from the average fan.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Cowboys sign kicker off the street to practice squad in case Maher still sucks in practice:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35474987/cowboys-sign-k-tristan-vizcaino-amid-maher-woes

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Cowboys sign kicker off the street to practice squad in case Maher still sucks in practice:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35474987/cowboys-sign-k-tristan-vizcaino-amid-maher-woes

He was signed off of Route One in Foxboro! (He could be representing the Pats in the SB this year.)

 

[Toe Nash]

I like the Bills. Allen is fun to watch and they have no real weaknesses. They were top 5 in DVOA for offense, defense and ST. They have even suffered a number of injuries to starters on the defense (Obviously Hamlin but also Micah Hyde and Von Miller) and you can barely tell.

I don't care that much about the fanbase but for every one who acts a fool now they probably have a heartbroken dad or uncle who watched every game in the early 90s and deserves to see them win one. If they had overlapped more with the Brady era I might be more annoyed but the games were always so one-sided (in our favor then, now in their favor) that I don't feel that much of a rivalry. Much more with the Jets and Fins who actually beat us a few times during the dynasty.

Someone like SF can certainly outplay them but I also like when dominant teams win instead of losing on some bullshit.

Other thoughts:
-Lane Johnson is playing with a torn groin tendon that would usually require surgery and he might be as important as Hurts. He hasn't fully practiced since he injured it, though word is he looked pretty good yesterday.
-I think the books were underrating Dallas until now. They were just 2.5 point favorites @ TB which was a joke based on Brady IMHO (I won money there). The offense is really explosive and well-rounded which I feel like helps you especially in the playoffs where one-dimensional teams get exposed. SF is a tough matchup for anyone but I think 4 points is right.

 

[Bowhemian]

I like the Bills. Allen is fun to watch and they have no real weaknesses. They were top 5 in DVOA for offense, defense and ST. They have even suffered a number of injuries to starters on the defense (Obviously Hamlin but also Micah Hyde and Von Miller) and you can barely tell.

I don't care that much about the fanbase but for every one who acts a fool now they probably have a heartbroken dad or uncle who watched every game in the early 90s and deserves to see them win one. If they had overlapped more with the Brady era I might be more annoyed but the games were always so one-sided (in our favor then, now in their favor) that I don't feel that much of a rivalry. Much more with the Jets and Fins who actually beat us a few times during the dynasty.

Someone like SF can certainly outplay them but I also like when dominant teams win instead of losing on some bullshit.

Other thoughts:
-Lane Johnson is playing with a torn groin tendon that would usually require surgery and he might be as important as Hurts. He hasn't fully practiced since he injured it, though word is he looked pretty good yesterday.
-I think the books were underrating Dallas until now. They were just 2.5 point favorites @ TB which was a joke based on Brady IMHO (I won money there). The offense is really explosive and well-rounded which I feel like helps you especially in the playoffs where one-dimensional teams get exposed. SF is a tough matchup for anyone but I think 4 points is right.

As long as Lane is having fun, that's all that matters.

 

[Dan Murfman]

My friend a Bill fan just dropped $500 a piece for 2 tickets for him and his son to go to Atlanta next weekend. As much as I hate the Chiefs I hope they win and the Bills so he gets to go to the game.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

The officiating crew for Bills/Bengals has called the most penalties the last two seasons.

 

[CFB_Rules]

The officiating crew for Bills/Bengals has called the most penalties the last two seasons.

Playoff crews are put together for each game. None of these guys have worked together this year, which means that stat is irrelevant.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I can't help but feel like tomorrow's games are hardly going to be worth watching but Sunday's games have the potential to be all-time classics.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I have no idea what to expect out of the Jags, but I am not a believer in the Eagles at all and think the Giants win.

Bengals win a close one, 49ers stomp again.

I look forward to being 0-3 on the above.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Big sleet in KC right now

 

[Reverend]

I’ve decided that I really, really like the phrase: “Please gamble responsibly.”

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I’ve decided that I really, really like the phrase: “Please gamble responsibly.”

Like Jamie Foxx says, GO WITH YOUR GUT.

And if you have a gambling problem call 1-800-COGNITIVEDISSONANCE

Lot of misdials….

 

[Montana Fan]

I’m not getting all the hate for the Giants. This is the year to root for them as they’re playing Yambag’s shitbird Eagles while the Pats are fishing in Belize. The Giants can’t crush your hopes and dreams for a third time this postseason.

PS - Eagles by double digits.

 

[loshjott]

Yeah I wouldn’t mind seeing Daboll knock out the Eagles. But what I really want is for him not to have a coronary on the sidelines.