With any luck, this weekend will offer several games that are far more competitive and enjoyable than we saw during Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round game thread
- Thread starter mr_smith02
- Start date
Honestly, I can’t say I have 100% confidence in any of them. The closest to ‘certain’ to me would be the Packers, but I hope I’m wrong.
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Can’t be certain anywhere.
Packers might be the best team in the NFC but that’s an unfortunate matchup for them.
Bucs might be next best but that’s an unfortunate matchup for them.
Chiefs seem like a good answer but they also seem ripe for the picking if Bills play a clean game. Chiefs have looked so lost in stretches.
Bengals are sort of lucky to be there but the Titans seem like one dimensional smoke and mirrors to me so I voted CincinnatI.
Packers might be the best team in the NFC but that’s an unfortunate matchup for them.
Bucs might be next best but that’s an unfortunate matchup for them.
Chiefs seem like a good answer but they also seem ripe for the picking if Bills play a clean game. Chiefs have looked so lost in stretches.
Bengals are sort of lucky to be there but the Titans seem like one dimensional smoke and mirrors to me so I voted CincinnatI.
This is tough but I went with GB. SF is on short rest and GB is coming off of a bye week, and the game will be played in GB and in 10 degree weather.
I could see all games going either way. One thing (as a bitter Pats fan) that feels like a stone cold lock is that KC will make the Bills look like the Jaguars.
None of these are super one-sided, but the lines are 2, 3, 3.5 and 6 (give or take, depending on where and when you bet). That makes this a relatively easy call.
Good question. None of the games look like a lock.
That said, after looking at the odds yesterday, it gave me the rare feeling of wanting to bet.
If I did, it would be TEN- SF- LAR- BUF.
That said, after looking at the odds yesterday, it gave me the rare feeling of wanting to bet.
If I did, it would be TEN- SF- LAR- BUF.
I think the Packers are the biggest lock to win, straight up. By the results of the poll so far, I see that's a popular opinion.
In full agreement with the other takes. It's mostly due to their opponent, of course, because we have seen the Packers lose time and time again at home in the playoffs under Rodgers. But I just think the other games are just a little tighter.
They're 5-3 at home in the playoffs with Rodgers, so it's not like they've been losing there hand over fist. If they give up 37+ like they have in five of his playoff losses, then they probably will lose. They certainly have had their struggles with the Shanahan run game.
Yeah just went through their playoff game log. Would have guessed more than 3. They've surprisingly only had a bye 5 times under Rodgers (including this year) and more road playoff games than I remember. When having a bye they have gone only 3-4 overall.
I'm obviously biased, but I think the Bengals have a pretty good shot for an upset. The Titans are one of the weaker 1-seeds we've seen in a while (3.4 SRS) and for all their strengths on defense, they aren't at corner and the Bengals are obviously not the team to be middling there against. On the other hand, it's going to be a load blocking Landry/Simmons/Autry/Dupree although they did a pretty good job against Crosby and Ngakoue last week all things considered. Henry's return will certainly help them, but he didn't have many big games against the Texans when DJ Reader was there and he's been every bit of the elite nose tackle the Bengals paid for. Plus, for all the (deserved) talk of the Bengals' shoddy OL, Tannehill has taken 47 sacks and the Bengals have the horses to get after him, although they'll be missing starting 3T Larry Ogunjobi who was lost for the year last week.
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I am in a playoffs survivor pool and can pick any team, aside from the Bucs (took them last week), and I have mentally changed my pick about 100 times this week.
I don't think you're alone in this at all, and I think most if not all of us will be rooting for the Bengals. The Titans are far from an offensive juggernaut, so one of the keys for Burrow will be to play within himself and not force anything. They can win a low-ish scoring game. What they can't afford is turnovers leading to a short field. The Bengals offense is good enough that they're going to make some plays, yards, and points. They don't have to worry about keeping up with the opposing offense like maybe they would against Buffalo or KC. As the old adage goes, drives that end with kicks are going to be ok, whether those are punts, FGs, or PATs. I don't want to see Taylor get overly aggressive on 4th downs and red zone type of situations. Take the points for the most part.
I''m rooting for both Tampa and Green Bay to win. I want to see a Brady/Rodgers part 2 in Lambeau and see TB12 go in there and ruin their season again.
They can take the points since they have a kicker that can hit from anywhere (ironically, their previous kicker Randy Bullock who could not hit from anywhere now kicks for the Titans), but they've generally been aggressive and I don't want them to stray too much from that - Burrow has managed to have a massive last three games without throwing a pick. They could still have their troubles on defense if Henry goes off and with having two smallish corners against two big receivers (although Chidobe Awuzie has been awesome), so I think it's imperative to just put the ball in your best players' hands and try to score as many points as possible. Of course this sounds incredibly simple, but they didn't do it in the first Raider game or the Denver game because they thought they could win a defensive struggle and they were right. The Titans have a bit more juice on offense though.
I hear you, I just worry about the potential that they go for a couple of 4th and 1s in the red zone, don't convert, and then lose a 20-17 type of game. Really rooting for you guys, hope the Bengals play a tight game.
I kind of looked at it as "Which team could I most see losing" as I think we have a very even field this year and I thought Titans.
I'm curious how Cincinnati fans will travel for that game, google says it's 273 miles and those fans must have their pants off now after the first playoff win since 1991.
I'm curious how Cincinnati fans will travel for that game, google says it's 273 miles and those fans must have their pants off now after the first playoff win since 1991.
If that happens, so be it. Taylor finally saw the light after the Niners game where Burrow torched them in the fourth/OT, but he took the ball out of his hands twice at the 26 on the first possession of OT, settled for a FG and gave up a TD. They had a conservative game plan the week after against Denver, but that was dictated by the opponent. If the passing game can be a big edge (and it can against these corners), I think he has to let it rip.
I sincerely appreciate the well-wishes and would love to pay the Pats fans back since they were 5-2 against the Steelers and Ravens in the playoffs. They absolutely had to win last week and this week is certainly tough, but it’s doable.
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I'm not certain about any of these games, but I think I feel best about Buffalo, honestly. Seems like Daboll has done a great job retooling their offense down the stretch, especially in the running game. They appear to be peaking at the right time, Allen is playing out of his mind, and their excellent defense seemingly hasn't missed a beat without Tre White. I had serious doubts about them mid-season, but they'd probably be my favorite to come out of the AFC right now.
I also don't have a ton of faith in KC, who has struggled against good defenses. Everyone kept waiting for their offense to turn the corner and it never really happened. They haven't really looked all that great when facing teams that aren't the Raiders. I also continue to distrust their own defense. I don't know if they'll be able to stop Buffalo very often, and I don't know if they'll be able to score enough to keep up either. Barring Mahomes turning into a superhero (which is always on the table), I just don't see it happening.
Of course, this means KC will probably win 42-3.
I also don't have a ton of faith in KC, who has struggled against good defenses. Everyone kept waiting for their offense to turn the corner and it never really happened. They haven't really looked all that great when facing teams that aren't the Raiders. I also continue to distrust their own defense. I don't know if they'll be able to stop Buffalo very often, and I don't know if they'll be able to score enough to keep up either. Barring Mahomes turning into a superhero (which is always on the table), I just don't see it happening.
Of course, this means KC will probably win 42-3.
I feel pretty good about CIN, KC, GB and LA covering. If I had to pick one team to win straight up I think GB is the easy pick. Thus, the SB will most likely be BUF/TB.
Look at the last five games for Buffalo. He’s been bad against all his non-NE opponents recently in terms of throwing the ball.
vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating
So...
- vs NE: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating
- vs others: 54-105 (51.4%), 569 yds, 5.4 y/a, 5 td, 4 int, 67.5 rating
So you could argue that he's on a roll after the NE game, and also that he played well against KC in their regular season matchup. Or you could argue that lately he has struggled against non-NE opponents and it wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle again this weekend.
vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating
So...
- vs NE: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating
- vs others: 54-105 (51.4%), 569 yds, 5.4 y/a, 5 td, 4 int, 67.5 rating
So you could argue that he's on a roll after the NE game, and also that he played well against KC in their regular season matchup. Or you could argue that lately he has struggled against non-NE opponents and it wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle again this weekend.
Know what’s kind of weird? Us Pats fans would have no problem with Buffalo winning this weekend, or even winning it all. Most of us are probably rooting for them this weekend. But on the flip side, there is no circumstance ever that their fans would root for the Pats in the playoffs. Even if they played Dallas in the Super Bowl they’d root against us. I guess that’s the privilege of winning so much.
Speak for yourself... for now I am kinda against the Bills, they have been very arrogant this season
Not real sure why you wouldn't include his rushing numbers. The Atlanta game is the only real turd in the bunch there, and he ran for 81 yards and 2 TDs that day. He's had four of his five highest rushing totals of the season during that stretch. Number five was when he ran for over 100 yards against Tampa, right before your five-game stretch.
McDermott is a surly SOB on the field, but off the field he seems like at least a somewhat decent and composed guy, so I have a hard time truly loathing him.
This is where I am at. The coach/players and their fans are very arrogant for a team that has achieved nothing.
They have won the division twice when all the other teams are rebuilding (and probably shouldn't have even won it this year) and made an AFCCG. It almost feels like they watched the Pats success and now just assume they will be kings for the next 20 years based on nothing.
Allen is going to be great and so they will be good for a while even as the cap becomes a challenge next year, but sit down, shut up and act like you have been here before.
Now with all that said, fuck the Chiefs.
So I guess go Cincy and or Tenn.
I’d like to see Buffalo beat KC, because some asshole has to win that game. But definitely rooting for the winner of Tenn/Cincy to represent the AFC.
As a 49ers fan, I am grateful for a cold game in Green Bay. That helps the 49ers rushing advantage and should make it harder for Rodgers to pass the ball against a mediocre-at-best 49ers secondary. I'd almost rather the game in Green Bay in those conditions than in Santa Clara.
Maybe I'm just over-remembering the last "coldest game ever" between those two at Lambeau.
Cold on its own isn't any detriment at all to the passing game, as Josh Allen demonstrated last week.
Living in northeast Wisconsin may seem to have it's advantages. The summers are great. The cost of living is low. It's socially permissible to be an alcoholic (seriously though, I know about a dozen people that have four plus DUIs) as well as eat cheese and bratwurst in five pound increments.
I will say though, that the Packer fanbase is by far the most goobery in the NFL. It usually gets a pass because of the homespun folksy-ness and Midwestern idioms like "a couple, two, tree (that's supposed to an attempt at saying three), yeah?" (Translated to "I want two of those") or ending any question posed with the dreaded "err, no?".
But living amongst Packer fans is insufferable. I've just been here too long I think, but it's tough stomach. Add in Rodgers being a cockstain, I want the 9ers to win on a last second field goal setup by Aaron throwing a pick to Adams who broke off his route too early.
I will say though, that the Packer fanbase is by far the most goobery in the NFL. It usually gets a pass because of the homespun folksy-ness and Midwestern idioms like "a couple, two, tree (that's supposed to an attempt at saying three), yeah?" (Translated to "I want two of those") or ending any question posed with the dreaded "err, no?".
But living amongst Packer fans is insufferable. I've just been here too long I think, but it's tough stomach. Add in Rodgers being a cockstain, I want the 9ers to win on a last second field goal setup by Aaron throwing a pick to Adams who broke off his route too early.
If the pats had been bounced by Cinci I'd have the Bills fairly high on my remaining teams list. After last weekend, no way. I'd like that absolute embarrassment to be meaningless as soon as humanly possible.
Titans / 9ers would be my preferred Super Bowl, but I think the Rams (who I'd probably rank 3) win it all if they win this weekend.
Titans / 9ers would be my preferred Super Bowl, but I think the Rams (who I'd probably rank 3) win it all if they win this weekend.
Ha SF-Ten has to be the league’s nightmare. Zero star power and really boring offenses. That would be a snoozer.
Yeah, Tannehill and Garoppolo would be hilarious with the slate of QBs playing this weekend. But I like both teams and I think it would actually be a really fun game, though - Derrick Henry and Deebo elevate both offenses way over boring, imo.
I imagine the league is rooting for KC vs GB or TB, but from a pure firepower perspective I could see Bills/Rams being the most exciting game given both appear to be peaking at the right time.
I imagine the league is rooting for KC vs GB or TB, but from a pure firepower perspective I could see Bills/Rams being the most exciting game given both appear to be peaking at the right time.
It probably would be a great football game though.
This weekend, I'm rooting for GB, TB, Ten, and I guess Buffalo, because I really dislike KC, but I picked them in the playoff predictions thread.
I want to see Brady beat Rodgers in the NFCCG in Lambeau again. I'd love to see him go up against Vrabel in the Super Bowl. I actually think that would be a terrific matchup for the Bucs, because the Titans' strength - running - smashes into the Bucs' defensive strength - run defense. And I think Brady could throw on Tennessee all day long. But Brady vs. Vrabel would be a lot of fun.
I know some others disagree and that's fine, but for me, having Brady on the Bucs is like giving me another team to root for. If I'm not rooting for the Pats, I'm rooting for Brady. And I don't buy the stupid narrative that every Brady win is somehow a mark against Belichick. Clearly Brady just cements his GOAT legacy with each successive win, but that doesn't diminish Belichick. The two of them won SIX Lombardis together. And yes, BB had a TON to do with that. He wasn't going to win six championships with Jacoby Brissett or even Drew Bledsoe at QB. So it's no knock on BB that he couldn't have won six Lombardis without the GOAT quarterback. NO coach in NFL history could have won six championships without the GOAT quarterback.
Both of their legacies are completely secure, no matter what happens from here on out. So...go Brady.
I mostly agree with this. It's added fun for me to see Brady do well and if the Bucs lose it doesn't bother me in the slightest. This weekend would be less interesting if he weren't playing.
You guys can feel free to bet against Tom Brady all you want.
I wouldnt do it with someone else's money. He'll lose eventually, and that day may be tomorrow, but I'm going to keep collecting on him until he does lose.
I wouldnt do it with someone else's money. He'll lose eventually, and that day may be tomorrow, but I'm going to keep collecting on him until he does lose.
You may be right but I think he goes down if Stafford has a B or B+ (or better) game.
I voted GB has highest win chance, but I'm not even sure. SF has some weapons to exploit GB D. None of the other matches seem certain.
I cannot believe this thread is rooting for KC over Buff. Go Buff and fuck KC and their child and domestic abusing shithead selves,
I cannot believe this thread is rooting for KC over Buff. Go Buff and fuck KC and their child and domestic abusing shithead selves,
Am two billion percent rooting for the Bills. I think I’d root for the Steelers or Ravens to beat the fucking Chiefs and Chiefsfuuckingplanet.