NBA suspends season

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MDLzera
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Is it a HIPAA violation if they agree to it? also, HIPAA only applies to healthcare professionals. If the players shared their results with management, then that wouldn't be a violation either.
So bizarre to me that material non-public information about companies' financial performance is more strongly protected (in terms of people needing to know what a reasonable person would consider both 'material' and 'non-public' and the restriction applying to anyone) than key information about an individual's health is.
 

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MDLzera
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Wouldn’t surprise me if they figure out a way to smooth out that drop. Two years at $108 make smuch more sense than one at $98 and one at $118, for instance
Didn't they basically propose smoothing for the big hike after 2016-17 and the players said "no, give us our goddamn money NOW!"?

Now watch them want it both ways.
 

lovegtm

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$98MM sounds pretty draconian and probably would be a 1-year hit with the cap returning back to $118MM for 2012-22 and beyond.

A few things to consider/kick around:
1. Would it delay Tatum from accepting his MAX deal in 2020 and opt for RFA in the summer of 2021?
2. Hayward would definitely opt-in next season
3. Trades would be next to impossible, so unless Philly opted to give up 1sts for many years to come there would be no moving Ancient Al
4. Teams that added 2020-21 salary at the trade deadline like Atlanta, Memphis and Cleveland would look incredibly foolish (IMO they already do for adding overpriced big men in Capella, Dedmon, Drummond and Dieng)
Re Tatum: I'm pretty sure the max % is based off the cap that the deal starts, so there's no reason for him to wait.
 

lovegtm

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Didn't they basically propose smoothing for the big hike after 2016-17 and the players said "no, give us our goddamn money NOW!"?

Now watch them want it both ways.
The flip side to that is that now both sides see the issues that not smoothing created, so it's less theoretical and there's more reason to work towards a solution. Most owners won't want a situation where everybody is in the luxury tax for a year.
 

benhogan

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Re Tatum: I'm pretty sure the max % is based off the cap that the deal starts, so there's no reason for him to wait.
that sounds right

Like every business, the NBA owners/players will feel a slight pinch for 1yr with the reduced revenue/income
 

DeadlySplitter

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JCizzle

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Gobert seems remorseful enough.

It was immature and foolish behavior from him pre-confirmation, but this is a really nice gesture. Props to him for dealing with a PR crisis the right way, he seems like a good guy.
 
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nighthob

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Didn't they basically propose smoothing for the big hike after 2016-17 and the players said "no, give us our goddamn money NOW!"?

Now watch them want it both ways.
Smoothing here would work to the owners’ advantage as it would save them huge money on the luxury tax bills. If there’s a $20 million dollar cap hit there are going to be a lot of teams paying in to the system that never had any intentions to.

Also, this isn’t likely to be just a one year drop. Given how far out a real vaccine looks, it’s very likely that the 2021 season is played, at the outset, in front of empty arenas. This is going to have huge implications for the owners, much more so than the players. The Celtics, for example, are suddenly facing a hefty luxury tax bill next year, and possibly the year after.
 

lovegtm

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View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1238979673520029698

Detroit Pistons‘ Christian Wood has tested positive for coronavirus, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium. Wood had 30 and 11 rebounds against Rudy Gobert on Saturday night before a career-high 32 on Wednesday.

Sources say Wood has shown no symptoms and is doing well.
This is identical to that classic "intro to Bayesian reasoning" example where you learn that someone has tested positive for X and have to use priors to figure out the true odds of a positive.
 

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MDLzera
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yeah but what if he had only half of those 30 points and 11 boards?
 

lexrageorge

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Smoothing here would work to the owners’ advantage as it would save them huge money on the luxury tax bills. If there’s a $20 million dollar cap hit there are going to be a lot of teams paying in to the system that never had any intentions to.

Also, this isn’t likely to be just a one year drop. Given how far out a real vaccine looks, it’s very likely that the 2021 season is played, at the outset, in front of empty arenas. This is going to have huge implications for the owners, much more so than the players. The Celtics, for example, are suddenly facing a hefty luxury tax bill next year, and possibly the year after.
In terms of resumption of games, a vaccine is not necessarily the gate here. There are models that with all of this social distancing and isolation, the virus becomes far more contained after a period of time. And the "new normal" is likely to be periodic yet isolated outbreaks until a vaccine comes on line; testing protocols and identification of cases will certainly improve over the next few months. This is already what is happening in SK and in China outside Hubei.

I would still bet the over in terms of length of impact; large, indoor entertainment venues will be the last to resume normal operations, and the first to close in the event of any future outbreaks. A single case in Dade county likely means the Heat play in an empty stadium for at least 2 weeks.

Also, wouldn't it also be in the interest of players to do smoothing as well? Owners paying unexpected luxury taxes are not going to be willing to sign big name players, and MLE and biannual exception contract values drop as well for a lot of teams. Wouldn't surprise if the owners and NBAPA work out some sort of special agreement to avoid some of the potential disaster scenarios.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It was immature and foolish behavior from him pre-confirmation, but this is a really nice gesture. Props to him for dealing with a PR crisis the right way, he seems like a good guy.
The irony here is that his foolish and joking gesture to touch all the mics was the catalyst that shut down all sporting events in this country. Once the NBA cancelled upon hearing about Gobert, the NCAA and all others followed. Rudy!!
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The irony here is that his foolish and joking gesture to touch all the mics was the catalyst that shut down all sporting events in this country. Once the NBA cancelled upon hearing about Gobert, the NCAA and all others followed. Rudy!!
What was that old Churchill quote about King John? “When the long tally is added, it will be seen that the world owes far more to the vices of Rudy Gobert than to the efforts of less idiotic players.”
 

benhogan

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Smoothing here would work to the owners’ advantage as it would save them huge money on the luxury tax bills. If there’s a $20 million dollar cap hit there are going to be a lot of teams paying in to the system that never had any intentions to.

Also, this isn’t likely to be just a one year drop. Given how far out a real vaccine looks, it’s very likely that the 2021 season is played, at the outset, in front of empty arenas. This is going to have huge implications for the owners, much more so than the players. The Celtics, for example, are suddenly facing a hefty luxury tax bill next year, and possibly the year after.
This is what I got from a past article about where the NBA luxury tax money goes:
  • Up to 50% of the tax money may be given to non-taxpaying teams. Note that there is no requirement that any of the tax money be distributed to teams in this manner.
  • Any tax money not distributed to teams will be used for "league purposes." In other words, at least 50% of the tax revenue will be used for league purposes each season (or back in the owners' pockets?)

I agree with nighthob that this will probably bleed into next season.

While we twiddle our thumbs, with no sports, it can't hurt to start thinking about the offseason and how Danny will approach construction (w/the caveat that things will change as more info is distributed).
 

nighthob

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In terms of resumption of games, a vaccine is not necessarily the gate here. There are models that with all of this social distancing and isolation, the virus becomes far more contained after a period of time. And the "new normal" is likely to be periodic yet isolated outbreaks until a vaccine comes on line; testing protocols and identification of cases will certainly improve over the next few months. This is already what is happening in SK and in China outside Hubei.

I would still bet the over in terms of length of impact; large, indoor entertainment venues will be the last to resume normal operations, and the first to close in the event of any future outbreaks. A single case in Dade county likely means the Heat play in an empty stadium for at least 2 weeks.
No, I get all that part, but I suspect that public health officials in the US are going to maintain a cap on large gatherings even after transmission rates have stabilized just to prevent outbreaks.

Also, wouldn't it also be in the interest of players to do smoothing as well? Owners paying unexpected luxury taxes are not going to be willing to sign big name players, and MLE and biannual exception contract values drop as well for a lot of teams. Wouldn't surprise if the owners and NBAPA work out some sort of special agreement to avoid some of the potential disaster scenarios.
There’s definitely a benefit to smoothing for the NBAPA, I was responding to someone that thought that only the NBAPA benefits. The primary benefit is to owners that have based their payrolls off pre-covid19 cap numbers that suddenly find that their economic projections are cat box liner and that they’re facing a large luxury tax bill.
 

jon abbey

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I think they will end up going straight from here into the playoffs, starting in June sometime, no audiences.
 

Ale Xander

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I hope Lebron keeps pushing the no play without fans message.

Maybe no fans first 2 rounds, but fans for conference finals and NBA Finals? By mid-July I hope this Covid19 thing is behind us.
 

Marciano490

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I hope Lebron keeps pushing the no play without fans message.

Maybe no fans first 2 rounds, but fans for conference finals and NBA Finals? By mid-July I hope this Covid19 thing is behind us.
I thought he changed his mind on that and said he’d play without fans.
 

lovegtm

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Speaking purely from a basketball/NBA perspective, I'm fairly excited as to what might come out of this. There are going to be dozens of experiments run as to format/schedule that wouldn't have happened in 25 years otherwise.

Obviously some will flop, but we'll almost certainly discover some cool variations.
 

Twilight

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Apologies if I didn't post the link correctly, but 538 has an informative article about the financial effects of CV on sports leagues, using the NBA as the main example.

As Paine mentions, moving the NBA season later, temporarily or not, would seem to impact the WNBA significantly.
 

Kliq

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I haven't investigated all the statistical repercussions of the season ending, but if it does, Khris Middleton finishes it with 49.9/41/90 shooting splits.

According to Basketball Reference, he attempted one "heave" which is a shot from beyond half-court, likely coming at the end of the quarter. I bet he wishes he had that one back.
 

Euclis20

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I haven't investigated all the statistical repercussions of the season ending, but if it does, Khris Middleton finishes it with 49.9/41/90 shooting splits.

According to Basketball Reference, he attempted one "heave" which is a shot from beyond half-court, likely coming at the end of the quarter. I bet he wishes he had that one back.
Maybe, but take away one missed FGA and he's 424/849 on the year, or .4994 (still under 50%).
 

InstaFace

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FYI, for those members who don't check P&G regularly: we've put a lot of boston sports content (the old "Pedro Server") back on the web. This board is public, so I won't link it directly here, but if you want to re-watch (say) every game of the 2008 NBA Finals, follow the link here.

(PS game 4 was the best)
 

HomeRunBaker

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I haven't investigated all the statistical repercussions of the season ending, but if it does, Khris Middleton finishes it with 49.9/41/90 shooting splits.

According to Basketball Reference, he attempted one "heave" which is a shot from beyond half-court, likely coming at the end of the quarter. I bet he wishes he had that one back.
Middleton should know better. I’ve told the story of a Celtics game I attended in Tony Allen’s rookie year when he launched a 60-footer just before the buzzer at the end of either the 1st or 3rd quarter. Ricky Davis immediately rushes over to him, pointed to the clock, did an imaginary extra dribble, then pointed to the clock again.....essentially coaching him how to avoid a bad FGA without it looking obvious. It had to be a proud moment later in the year when I was watching on TV when Allen executes the extra dribble and release after the buzzer to perfection. #veteran-presence
 

Kliq

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Middleton should know better. I’ve told the story of a Celtics game I attended in Tony Allen’s rookie year when he launched a 60-footer just before the buzzer at the end of either the 1st or 3rd quarter. Ricky Davis immediately rushes over to him, pointed to the clock, did an imaginary extra dribble, then pointed to the clock again.....essentially coaching him how to avoid a bad FGA without it looking obvious. It had to be a proud moment later in the year when I was watching on TV when Allen executes the extra dribble and release after the buzzer to perfection. #veteran-presence
Didn’t TA later blow out his knee attempting a dunk after the whistle?
 

Domer

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According to reports, American players are heading back to China in preparation for the resumption of the CBA season on April 15. (Those who enter the country must be quarantined for two weeks.) Although the efforts to contain the virus were much more forceful than what we have seen in the United States so far, this does give me some optimism for the 2020 NBA playoffs.

View: https://twitter.com/carchia/status/1239996116223082502
 

benhogan

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No thanks to any type of exhibition nonsense. The real McCoy or nothing Adam. Focus on reshaping the schedule.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said in a SportsCenter interview with ESPN's Rachel Nichols on Wednesday night that as the league attempts to navigate the coronavirus pandemic, one potential option for bringing back the sport would be some kind of charity competition -- one separate from regular play -- in order to give millions of NBA fans stuck at home something to watch.
 

ElUno20

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No thanks to any type of exhibition nonsense. The real McCoy or nothing Adam. Focus on reshaping the schedule.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said in a SportsCenter interview with ESPN's Rachel Nichols on Wednesday night that as the league attempts to navigate the coronavirus pandemic, one potential option for bringing back the sport would be some kind of charity competition -- one separate from regular play -- in order to give millions of NBA fans stuck at home something to watch.
I think he means in addition to restarting the season or if not, why not?

The sentiment is this sucks and people are depressed, if we get a few hours of NBA all star type basketball, why not?
 

benhogan

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I think he means in addition to restarting the season or if not, why not?

The sentiment is this sucks and people are depressed, if we get a few hours of NBA all star type basketball, why not?
As soon as they get a green light for guys to play (without fans) start up the regular season games.

I'm biased. I've never cared for the NBA All-Star game, MLB Mid-Summer Classic or NFL Pro Bowl
 

ElUno20

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As soon as they get a green light for guys to play (without fans) start up the regular season games.

I'm biased. I've never cared for the NBA All-Star game, MLB Mid-Summer Classic or NFL Pro Bowl
I get ya but man people need a tiny sense (even if it's false) of normalcy. It's grim af right now.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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As soon as they get a green light for guys to play (without fans) start up the regular season games.

I'm biased. I've never cared for the NBA All-Star game, MLB Mid-Summer Classic or NFL Pro Bowl
I think they're trying to figure out what to do in the ever likely scenario that it may be a long while before we get to that point. With what's going on, the logistics of getting an All-Star cast together to play safely in an exhibition seems a lot easier than restarting the cross country travel schedules of full NBA rosters.
 

lovegtm

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As soon as they get a green light for guys to play (without fans) start up the regular season games.

I'm biased. I've never cared for the NBA All-Star game, MLB Mid-Summer Classic or NFL Pro Bowl
I too don't care for those events (although I was a sucker for MLB All-Star as a kid), but this is different.

1. You have a content-starved, bored as hell audience. Great time for the league to promote, especially given the coming revenue crunch (and ratings drop prior).
2. Players who agreed to play would probably play hard. Everyone is pissed off and wants an outlet.
3. The season may not happen, so less worry about injury (some guys will think like this).
4. Easier to manage testing for a smaller slate of games, no worries about fairness with some teams disproportionately impacted by positive tests.
5. Chance to experiment with cool no-spectator venues for future made-for-TV exhibitions/games
6. Chance to experiment more with Elam Endings.
7. Most importantly, could start right away with players who have tested negative. Cutting logistical Gordian Knots is a big deal.

Get it done, Adam.
 

Gdiguy

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I think they're trying to figure out what to do in the ever likely scenario that it may be a long while before we get to that point. With what's going on, the logistics of getting an All-Star cast together to play safely in an exhibition seems a lot easier than restarting the cross country travel schedules of full NBA rosters.
The other problem, honestly, is - even if things are 'getting better' in a few months, if they restart the season, what happens if another player tests positive (or even has a potential exposure)? You'd immediately have an entire team quarantined again, and figuring out the outcome of that (do they forfeit games? reschedule later?) is a huge mess

Doing it as an exhibition means you can make changes on the fly and it doesn't really 'matter' in any real sense, you can test the entirety of a small set of players every few days (there are plenty of places you can do this testing right now for non-clinical use), and just gives things a much greater flexibility when you don't really know what's happening week to week
 

lovegtm

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This would also be a great time to test a small-scale tournament. Let guys team up with their buddies, or have some draft format, but the appetite for content is insane right now, and it wouldn't be so challenging logistically.
 

NoXInNixon

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After a month+ long break, the players are going to need a few exhibition games to get into game condition, unless we want to watch a first playoff round full of terrible basketball.
 

TripleOT

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Play the exhibition games outside on a playground, with no refs and no coaches - just the best 16 players who want to run, eight to a side, the camera and sound people, and a hypeman announcer.

or

get the best 20 players together, five to a side, on the playground, games to 21, winning team stays on the court.