NBA Draft Night, June 22, Live Thread

[cheech13]

Late 1sts have more trade value in Brad's hands. Drafting and developing a 19-20yr old (at the end of the first round) that would get guaranteed money & want PT is not nearly as attractive, especially with the new CBA/JAYs super max.

Not sure I am following the logic of this paragraph. Under the new CBA, second apron teams basically have to draft and develop players as there is no other mechanism from which to acquire talent. Teams like Boston will need to horde picks, not trade them.

 

[AB in DC]

I don’t think I like that. They traded 38 and 39 for 2 future second round picks. 38 and 39 are in the top third of the second round. Do we even know if the future second rounders will be that high? They probably won’t. I guess NBA is different in that maybe you are ok swapping for future picks of comparable value, but 38 and 39 are not just any seconds — they were somewhat high seconds.

Does anyone have a good explanation here? Why is a future 2nd round pick going to be any better than a 39 this year?

 

[Koufax]

Well, it gives them more time to package it into a trade.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Does anyone have a good explanation here? Why is a future 2nd round pick going to be any better than a 39 this year?

My guess is that they don’t want to try and incorporate 2 guys this year and keeps it as a trade chip for the future. It also balances there drafts over the years as they had traded all of their future seconds.

 

[moondog80]

Well, it gives them more time to package it into a trade.

Yes. Coupled with the fact that they didn't see anyone worthy of a roster spot/cap space while the team is heavy in GFIN mode.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Does anyone have a link to a good primer on the new CBA that highlights all of the material changes and how it affects the teams? I've read that it discourages "super teams" and places higher values on 2nd round picks. I roughly understand why, but would love to read something that people think is really on point.

Start with this: https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/what-are-the-cba-changes-in-the-nba-full-breakdown-for-2023-24-season/3155945/.

And then if there's anything you need more detail on, there's a ton of stuff on the internet.

BTW, Forsberg's podcast (CelticsBeat) did a couple of episodes on the new CBA and the Cs.

 

[DJnVa]

Tough to keep it all straight, so I look at it like this:

--Smart for Porzingis
--35th pick for 2024 #1, Jordan Walsh, a $5M MLE, and a bunch of 2nd rounders.

 

[benhogan]

Not sure I am following the logic of this paragraph. Under the new CBA, second apron teams basically have to draft and develop players as there is no other mechanism from which to acquire talent. Teams like Boston will need to horde picks, not trade them.

They can obtain young, cheap players a few different ways UDFA, 2nd round picks can be purchased, G-League development, overseas players.

Hoarding firsts isn't the only way. AND if that is the mindset of some teams that will lead to supply/demand imbalance. Brad would exploit that.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see a few NBA teams go with a 14-man roster to save a few $$$, while using their 2-ways like a farm system.

I mean we just had the Miami UDFA Machine rammed down every telecast

 

[cheech13]

They can obtain young, cheap players a few different ways UDFA, 2nd round picks can be purchased, G-League development, overseas players.

Hoarding firsts isn't the only way. AND if that is the mindset of some teams that will lead to supply/demand imbalance. Brad would exploit that.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see a few NBA teams go with a 14-man roster to save a few $$$, while using their 2-ways like a farm system.

I mean we just had the Miami UDFA Machine rammed down every telecast

You cannot purchase 2nd rounders under the new CBA. Second apron teams cannot include cash in a trade.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

2nd round picks can be purchased

Quick nit. It's my understanding that 2nd apron teams cannot send out cash in trades, so they can't "buy" second-picks.

Which further explains why Brad wanted to stock up on them.

https://sports.yahoo.com/cba-changes-nba-full-breakdown-161046640.html

 

[benhogan]

You cannot purchase 2nd rounders under the new CBA. Second apron teams cannot include cash in a trade.

We're not even there yet and the Celtics aren't a 2nd apron team.

The original question was why did they move back from #25 to load up on 2nd round picks?

I just wouldn't expect Boston to hoard firsts or develop them while they are in championship mode, which they will be in as long as Tatum is here.

 

[Tony C]

The NBA Draft Night is a laughably poor production. Between the baseball hats, stilted interviews, lack of knowledge from the commentators, Shams/Woj muzzle, lack of trade updates & draft tracking miscues. The league needs to overhaul it.

I might be the only goofball who's a semi-fan. Love the hats, especially when perched on top of a huge set of curls (and makes me laugh when it's for a team that didn't draft them -- "so happy to be with team x that I know won't be with..."), the interviews are golden between the style and the type A dads (internal dialogue: "shooting hoops with that little shit is finally paying off -- cha-ching!"), sweet moms, and occasionally very affecting life stories (I'm a sap).

As for a the lack of knowledge, I mean whatever...does anyone really know what they're talking about? Just a bunch of bullshitters bullshitting....

 

[PedroKsBambino]

We're not even there yet and the Celtics aren't a 2nd apron team.

The original question was why did they move back from #25 to load up on 2nd round picks?

I just wouldn't expect Boston to hoard firsts or develop them while they are in championship mode, which they will be in as long as Tatum is here.

I have speculated on here that Celtics might have looked at it and the roster and decided they are just going to have to be a second-apron team, and that the 'lesser' impact is losing all the roster-building things you lose at second apron (meaning, it would be more harmful to lose the players/talent they'd have to in order to stay under it)

Trading for Porzingis and loading up on future picks certainly has not reduced my sense that may be their plan.

We'll see

 

[Cellar-Door]

One thing about the new CBA... you have to start PLANNING for it now, but the teeth don't really start to bite for about 2 years, so one thing you'll see is teams who think they can win and are expensive trying to build around 2-3 year pushes....
GS getting off the long-term money, but likely to go all in on 2-3 year deals.....
PHX trying to go all in now (though they took on long term money, but maybe they plan to let KD walk)...
BOS bringing in and likely extending Porzingis to make it a 3 year deal

I think Stevens will be moderately conservative with his 1sts going forward, but this is the window in many ways.

 

[lovegtm]

Not sure I am following the logic of this paragraph. Under the new CBA, second apron teams basically have to draft and develop players as there is no other mechanism from which to acquire talent. Teams like Boston will need to horde picks, not trade them.

The logic is to not become a 2nd apron team in the first place, and to have the flexibility to keep turning picks into vets, cycling through a few salary slots.

The huge benefits of not being a supertax team are why I think, ultimately, Jaylen Brown is not destined to be a Celtic unless he takes 5/230 or something like that.

 

[benhogan]

I have speculated on here that Celtics might have looked at it and the roster and decided they are just going to have to be a second-apron team, and that the 'lesser' impact is losing all the roster-building things you lose at second apron (meaning, it would be more harmful to lose the players/talent they'd have to in order to stay under it)

Trading for Porzingis and loading up on future picks certainly has not reduced my sense that may be their plan.

We'll see

One thing about the new CBA... you have to start PLANNING for it now, but the teeth don't really start to bite for about 2 years, so one thing you'll see is teams who think they can win and are expensive trying to build around 2-3 year pushes....
GS getting off the long-term money, but likely to go all in on 2-3 year deals.....
PHX trying to go all in now (though they took on long term money, but maybe they plan to let KD walk)...
BOS bringing in and likely extending Porzingis to make it a 3 year deal

I think Stevens will be moderately conservative with his 1sts going forward, but this is the window in many ways.

those are both fair theories

In the short term, I'll be shocked if they plan on drafting and developing the Warriors 1st.

 

[Cellar-Door]

those are both fair theories

In the short term, I'll be shocked if they plan on drafting and developing the Warriors 1st. Brad is fantastic at using them to improve the roster

I think there are two paths in Brad's head for the Warriors' 1st. One is it goes right back out this year if he gets a top 8 guy in a deal. The other is he waits to see what the Warriors look like, and if it is a top 15 pick he keeps it.

 

[benhogan]

I think there are two paths in Brad's head for the Warriors' 1st. One is it goes right back out this year if he gets a top 8 guy in a deal. The other is he waits to see what the Warriors look like, and if it is a top 15 pick he keeps it.

Even if the Warriors flail & it turns into a potential TOP15 pick (not TOP4), just means Brad will get a better asset for it.

Over the next year, I just wouldn't expect Boston will choose to draft/develop a 19yr old one & done over attaining better NBA talent in their primes.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't think it's that binary - if they really like a player in the top 10 or so, they may well believe they can deploy them as a rotation player at 19 and build on that. I would be surprised if they were totally opposed to someone young - instead, I think they are trying to be realistic about who can do what when, and what the roster needs.

I believe (and it's just speculation) that they would have been willing to take someone young at 25 if the right player was there---and when he wasn't, they were happy to get more assets to move back.

Teams do need to infuse young talent as they go, both for vitatilty of the roster and cap reasons. They often can't (2008 Celtics) but they try (Kawhi for the Spurs)

 

[benhogan]

I don't think it's that binary - if they really like a player in the top 10 or so, they may well believe they can deploy them as a rotation player at 19 and build on that. I would be surprised if they were totally opposed to someone young - instead, I think they are trying to be realistic about who can do what when, and what the roster needs.

I believe (and it's just speculation) that they would have been willing to take someone young at 25 if the right player was there---and when he wasn't, they were happy to get more assets to move back.

Teams do need to infuse young talent as they go, both for vitatilty of the roster and cap reasons. They often can't (2008 Celtics) but they try (Kawhi for the Spurs)

Sure, Brad is being realistic & doing what the roster needs. I really like his approach to the draft & draft picks so far.

They needed to reload on 2nds & they were still able to grab a player they targeted (Walsh). Mission accomplished.

The Celtics are at a stage where attaining reasonable players, under control & in their primes is the goal. A first-round pick can sometimes eventually accomplish that but Brad has found better uses for those firsts over the last 2 seasons. I'm expecting he'll continue to use that approach since it's been a very successful form of roster construction.
BUT you never know, he may not find a deal he likes, so it's not exactly binary.

 

[benhogan]

@Sam Ray Not must be happy with the Warriors' work in the Draft. Really nice job.

#19 Brandin Podziemski
#57 Trayce Jackson-Davis (Dale Davis biological dad)

Both guys with NBA bodies

 

[Kliq]

Giovony's very early 2024 Draft mock is up. Calls it one of the weakest, most uncertain drafts in recent years. Interesting he has Donovan Clingan going #8 and Bronny James going #17:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37905297/2024-nba-mock-draft-top-prospects-next-year