NBA trade deadline: Thursday, FEB. 8, 2024
Fantastic Celtic summation by Jay King from the very worthwhile Athletic. FWIW my favorite sports subscription
https://theathletic.com/5165014/2023/12/28/celtics-trade-deadline-brad-stevens/
The Grant Williams sign-and-trade this summer left the Celtics with a $6.2 million traded player exception (TPE). It could be a useful trade chip, though just how useful remains to be seen.
At that price or lower, it’s difficult to find a player who would potentially be available and also have a realistic chance of helping the Celtics in a playoff series. Would the Hawks consider moving on from Saddiq Bey? He would fit comfortably into the trade exception and give Boston another playable wing in the postseason. Though Bey has been pretty productive for the Hawks this season, they won’t be able to pay everybody and could explore all of their options before he hits free agency this summer. At 12-18, they could be looking at a substantial roster shake-up soon.
Some other TPE targets would be at least mildly intriguing. Not many first-round picks get moved with one and a half years left on their rookie contracts, but if the dreadful Washington Wizards listen to offers for Corey Kispert, his sharpshooting could help somewhere else. Kris Dunn, a quality perimeter defender on an expiring contract, could be available if the Utah Jazz don’t see him as part of their future. HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported John Konchar as a possible Celtics target, though the Grizzlies could be hesitant to move anyone if they start charging up the standings with Ja Morant now available.
How many minutes would those players receive in Boston? And if none of them would impact the rotation, how much would the Celtics be willing to pay in luxury taxes for a ninth or 10th man?
The Celtics currently sit about $18 million over the luxury tax line with more than $183 million in projected payroll. For every dollar added to the payroll, they would also need to pony up more than three times that amount in luxury tax. So, if the Celtics include no outgoing salary while using the TPE, a $5 million player would cost the team more than $20 million. And money won’t be the only factor limiting whom the Celtics pursue.
Stevens’ history as a coach and executive shows how much he values locker room dynamics. With the Celtics on pace to win 65 games, he will likely want no part of a trade that could potentially rock the boat.
Stevens made his stance on that clear last season. After acquiring Mike Muscala at the deadline, Stevens said he wanted to find someone with “the ability to play” who wouldn’t “need to play.” In other words, Stevens wanted to look for a player who would be OK with receiving a smaller role but capable of filling a bigger role when necessary.
Expect Stevens to aim for similar fits at this deadline. The Celtics don’t need much. Their starting lineup might be the NBA’s best. At age 37, Al Horford remains more than capable as a sixth man. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard have helped complete a better-than-advertised bench. Behind Horford, Luke Kornet has been solid, and Neemias Queta has been promising in limited minutes. Teams this good don’t normally make big changes at the deadline.
The Celtics are expected to examine bench options, but all of the evidence suggests the current group just fits well together. Hauser (41.6 percent) and Pritchard (40 percent) are living up to their reputations as knockdown 3-point shooters while showing off more well-rounded games. The team has blasted opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions with Horford on the court; that’s the worst on-court mark for any of the Celtics’ top eight rotation players. As the on-off data shows, Boston has consistently bashed the opposition with any combination of its regulars on the court. An extra perimeter player or a different type of bench big man could still help, if only to provide more playoff-caliber depth, but the second unit hasn’t been an issue so far, and most of the playoff minutes will go to the top-six players anyway.
Beyond the basketball fit, the Celtics locker room has been entirely no-nonsense. At least publicly, the players have all been OK with sacrificing minutes and/or touches. Nobody in a smaller role has complained. That type of team-first mindset is worth preserving. With all of the talent already in Boston, Stevens doesn’t necessarily need to take a big swing. He won’t want to disrupt what he already has.
Another financial factor
The Celtics don’t necessarily need to limit themselves to TPE targets, but they don’t have many bloated salaries to package together for an impact player on a bigger contract. The top-six rotation players (the starters and Horford) will combine to make more than $165 million this season. That’s more than 90 percent of the team’s payroll. Assuming Stevens plans to keep the top of his rotation intact (a safe assumption given the team’s start), his options will be limited from a financial perspective.
For the purpose of demonstrating that point, we can use Kelly Olynyk as an example. Marc Stein recently reported that the Celtics are “among the teams that (are) monitoring” the Jazz big man as a trade possibility. Olynyk, quietly putting together an efficient season in Utah, would give Boston another quality depth piece in the frontcourt, but it would be extremely difficult for the Celtics to make the money work without including a rotation player in the deal. Unless they wanted to trade Horford, Hauser or Pritchard, they would need to trade just about everyone else on the roster to reach the salary required to match Olynyk’s $12.2 million contract. Not even the five-player combination of Oshae Brissett, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lamar Stevens, Kornet and Dalano Banton would give the Celtics enough salary to acquire Olynyk. The challenges of a six-for-one trade, which would force Utah to waive several players or re-route them elsewhere, mean Olynyk would be extremely unlikely for the Celtics to obtain without trading a rotation piece. Even if Boston wanted to deal Pritchard in such a move, his contract extension, which will kick in next season, would complicate any deal as a poison pill for salary-matching purposes.
The Celtics could more realistically build an offer for someone near the salary level of San Antonio’s Cedi Osman ($6.7 million) or Houston’s Jae’Sean Tate ($6.5 million), but any contract much bigger than that would present serious salary-matching issues. Boston could still decide to trade one of its rotation players for the right acquisition but would need to consider the future as well as the present in any deal. The team’s payroll is set to grow out of control in the coming years even if Stevens holds onto the current core. And the new collective bargaining agreement will punish the most expensive teams.
The Celtics could have a window to strike now, before the worst of their coming tax avalanche. But the circumstances suggest not to expect many fireworks from Stevens.
Fantastic Celtic summation by Jay King from the very worthwhile Athletic. FWIW my favorite sports subscription
https://theathletic.com/5165014/2023/12/28/celtics-trade-deadline-brad-stevens/
The Grant Williams sign-and-trade this summer left the Celtics with a $6.2 million traded player exception (TPE). It could be a useful trade chip, though just how useful remains to be seen.
At that price or lower, it’s difficult to find a player who would potentially be available and also have a realistic chance of helping the Celtics in a playoff series. Would the Hawks consider moving on from Saddiq Bey? He would fit comfortably into the trade exception and give Boston another playable wing in the postseason. Though Bey has been pretty productive for the Hawks this season, they won’t be able to pay everybody and could explore all of their options before he hits free agency this summer. At 12-18, they could be looking at a substantial roster shake-up soon.
Some other TPE targets would be at least mildly intriguing. Not many first-round picks get moved with one and a half years left on their rookie contracts, but if the dreadful Washington Wizards listen to offers for Corey Kispert, his sharpshooting could help somewhere else. Kris Dunn, a quality perimeter defender on an expiring contract, could be available if the Utah Jazz don’t see him as part of their future. HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported John Konchar as a possible Celtics target, though the Grizzlies could be hesitant to move anyone if they start charging up the standings with Ja Morant now available.
How many minutes would those players receive in Boston? And if none of them would impact the rotation, how much would the Celtics be willing to pay in luxury taxes for a ninth or 10th man?
The Celtics currently sit about $18 million over the luxury tax line with more than $183 million in projected payroll. For every dollar added to the payroll, they would also need to pony up more than three times that amount in luxury tax. So, if the Celtics include no outgoing salary while using the TPE, a $5 million player would cost the team more than $20 million. And money won’t be the only factor limiting whom the Celtics pursue.
Stevens’ history as a coach and executive shows how much he values locker room dynamics. With the Celtics on pace to win 65 games, he will likely want no part of a trade that could potentially rock the boat.
Stevens made his stance on that clear last season. After acquiring Mike Muscala at the deadline, Stevens said he wanted to find someone with “the ability to play” who wouldn’t “need to play.” In other words, Stevens wanted to look for a player who would be OK with receiving a smaller role but capable of filling a bigger role when necessary.
Expect Stevens to aim for similar fits at this deadline. The Celtics don’t need much. Their starting lineup might be the NBA’s best. At age 37, Al Horford remains more than capable as a sixth man. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard have helped complete a better-than-advertised bench. Behind Horford, Luke Kornet has been solid, and Neemias Queta has been promising in limited minutes. Teams this good don’t normally make big changes at the deadline.
The Celtics are expected to examine bench options, but all of the evidence suggests the current group just fits well together. Hauser (41.6 percent) and Pritchard (40 percent) are living up to their reputations as knockdown 3-point shooters while showing off more well-rounded games. The team has blasted opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions with Horford on the court; that’s the worst on-court mark for any of the Celtics’ top eight rotation players. As the on-off data shows, Boston has consistently bashed the opposition with any combination of its regulars on the court. An extra perimeter player or a different type of bench big man could still help, if only to provide more playoff-caliber depth, but the second unit hasn’t been an issue so far, and most of the playoff minutes will go to the top-six players anyway.
Beyond the basketball fit, the Celtics locker room has been entirely no-nonsense. At least publicly, the players have all been OK with sacrificing minutes and/or touches. Nobody in a smaller role has complained. That type of team-first mindset is worth preserving. With all of the talent already in Boston, Stevens doesn’t necessarily need to take a big swing. He won’t want to disrupt what he already has.
Another financial factor
The Celtics don’t necessarily need to limit themselves to TPE targets, but they don’t have many bloated salaries to package together for an impact player on a bigger contract. The top-six rotation players (the starters and Horford) will combine to make more than $165 million this season. That’s more than 90 percent of the team’s payroll. Assuming Stevens plans to keep the top of his rotation intact (a safe assumption given the team’s start), his options will be limited from a financial perspective.
For the purpose of demonstrating that point, we can use Kelly Olynyk as an example. Marc Stein recently reported that the Celtics are “among the teams that (are) monitoring” the Jazz big man as a trade possibility. Olynyk, quietly putting together an efficient season in Utah, would give Boston another quality depth piece in the frontcourt, but it would be extremely difficult for the Celtics to make the money work without including a rotation player in the deal. Unless they wanted to trade Horford, Hauser or Pritchard, they would need to trade just about everyone else on the roster to reach the salary required to match Olynyk’s $12.2 million contract. Not even the five-player combination of Oshae Brissett, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lamar Stevens, Kornet and Dalano Banton would give the Celtics enough salary to acquire Olynyk. The challenges of a six-for-one trade, which would force Utah to waive several players or re-route them elsewhere, mean Olynyk would be extremely unlikely for the Celtics to obtain without trading a rotation piece. Even if Boston wanted to deal Pritchard in such a move, his contract extension, which will kick in next season, would complicate any deal as a poison pill for salary-matching purposes.
The Celtics could more realistically build an offer for someone near the salary level of San Antonio’s Cedi Osman ($6.7 million) or Houston’s Jae’Sean Tate ($6.5 million), but any contract much bigger than that would present serious salary-matching issues. Boston could still decide to trade one of its rotation players for the right acquisition but would need to consider the future as well as the present in any deal. The team’s payroll is set to grow out of control in the coming years even if Stevens holds onto the current core. And the new collective bargaining agreement will punish the most expensive teams.
The Celtics could have a window to strike now, before the worst of their coming tax avalanche. But the circumstances suggest not to expect many fireworks from Stevens.
