Amid a flurry of Mookie-in-the-offseason-will-he-stay-or-not takes, I wanted to put the capstone on Mookie's 2019 season. Here are a host of Mookie's stats, in the context of his career:
Year | R | HR | SB | TB | fWAR | bWAR |
2015 | 92 | 18 | 21 | 286 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
2016 | 122 | 31 | 26 | 359 | 8.3 | 9.7 |
2017 | 101 | 24 | 26 | 288 | 5.3 | 6.4 |
2018 | 129 | 32 | 30 | 333 | 10.4 | 10.9 |
2019 | 135 | 29 | 16 | 313 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
Year | WRC+ | PA | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO |
2015 | 120 | 654 | 0.291 | 0.341 | 0.479 | 0.820 | 0.188 |
2016 | 136 | 730 | 0.318 | 0.363 | 0.534 | 0.897 | 0.216 |
2017 | 106 | 712 | 0.264 | 0.344 | 0.459 | 0.803 | 0.194 |
2018 | 185 | 614 | 0.346 | 0.438 | 0.64 | 1.078 | 0.294 |
2019 | 135 | 706 | 0.295 | 0.391 | 0.524 | 0.915 | 0.229 |
Year | bb% | kk% | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | O-Contact % | Z-contact % | SwSt % |
2015 | 7.0% | 12.5% | 25.3% | 55.7% | 40.2% | 72.9% | 93.1% | 5.4% |
2016 | 6.7% | 11.0% | 25.5% | 58.4% | 41.2% | 71.6% | 94.8% | 5.2% |
2017 | 10.8% | 11.1% | 22.1% | 53.8% | 36.0% | 72.6% | 92.7% | 5.0% |
2018 | 13.2% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 57.0% | 35.6% | 70.7% | 93.0% | 5.0% |
2019 | 13.7% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 61.5% | 38.3% | 71.9% | 93.7% | 5.1% |
Year | barrel % | exit velocity | launch angle | XBA | XSLG | HARD % |
2015 | 5.9% | 89.9 | 15.0 | 0.29 | 0.454 | 37.4% |
2016 | 5.3% | 89.7 | 12.5 | 0.289 | 0.457 | 39.6% |
2017 | 4.5% | 88.4 | 14.1 | 0.279 | 0.444 | 37.9% |
2018 | 14.1% | 92.2 | 18.3 | 0.314 | 0.510 | 50.2% |
2019 | 10.2% | 90.9 | 19.0 | 0.301 | 0.536 | 46.4% |
Year | BsR | Sprint Speed | HP to 1st | Bolts | Def | OAA | Catch % Added |
2015 | 7.9 | 28.7 | 15 | 0.5 |
2016 | 10.6 | 27.9 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 5% |
2017 | 9.2 | 27.9 | 4.21 | 6 | 14.3 | 18 | 4% |
2018 | 6.9 | 28.1 | 4.18 | 6 | 11.6 | 11 | 4% |
2019 | 5.3 | 27.9 | 4.28 | 1 | 6.7 | 7 | 2% |
Mookie didn't put up an all-time great season like last year, but once again was one of the best players in baseball, ranking as the 9th best among position players in fWAR and 7th best in bWAR. The first half of Mookie's season was marred by a poor two-month stretch in May and June, where Mookie showed a conservative approach that bordered on timid that resulted in a big spike in his walk rate, a big drop in his power, and a baffling inability to hit LHP. In the second half, however, Mookie revived his offensive game with a much more aggressive approach at the plate where he attacked pitches in the zone, particularly first-pitch fastballs, which resulted in a drop in bb% but a spike in ISO, EV, and other power stats. In the end, Mookie's 2019 2nd half looked a lot like his 2018 2nd half, which seems to be representative to his mean ability level:
Year | WRC+ | PA | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | r | hr | sb | bb% | kk% | hard % | hr/fb % | pa/hr |
1st Half | 123 | 418 | 0.272 | 0.392 | 0.467 | 0.859 | 0.194 | 77 | 13 | 10 | 16.3% | 14.4% | 42.0% | 10.4% | 32.2 |
2nd Half | 151 | 288 | 0.325 | 0.389 | 0.603 | 0.992 | 0.278 | 58 | 16 | 6 | 10.1% | 14.2% | 44.2% | 16.7% | 18.0 |
2018 | 185 | 614 | 0.346 | 0.438 | 0.640 | 1.078 | 0.294 | 129 | 32 | 30 | 13.2% | 14.8% | 44.5% | 16.4% | 19.2 |
2018 1st Half | 199 | 355 | 0.359 | 0.448 | 0.691 | 1.139 | 0.332 | 79 | 23 | 18 | 13.0% | 11.8% | 44.3% | 19.3% | 15.4 |
2018 2nd Half | 166 | 259 | 0.329 | 0.425 | 0.571 | 0.995 | 0.242 | 50 | 9 | 12 | 13.5% | 18.9% | 44.8% | 11.8% | 28.8 |
Though Mookie's offensive game seems likely to remain strong going forward, there were worrying drops in his defense and speed metrics that continued an ongoing trend. Leaving aside the drop in steals, which may reflect changes in the game that deemphasize the strategic value of stealing more than Mookie's ability, Mookie saw his speed stats drop to career lows. Likewise, Mookie's defense, which still grades out as among the best in the league, isn't as otherworldly as it was a couple of seasons ago. That said, much of his defensive stats seemed to be weighed down by early-season struggles and lapses in focus, and they rebounded quite nicely in the 2nd half.
Player projections are not my forte, but Mookie seems like a good bet to remain a ~7 WAR player for the next 3-4 years, with perhaps one or two more MVP-caliber seasons, before the inevitable aging decline downgrades him from elite to merely great and ultimately very good. It seems likely that Mookie will continue to lose value on defense and on the bases, but his instincts, fundamental skills, and natural above-average speed will probably keep those as relative strengths even into his 30s. His power, not the core part of his game, could tick up in his late 20s even after he loses a figurative and literal step. I think all this adds up to a player that will age gracefully and who will still add a ton of value even after his peak is firmly behind him.
I don't know what Mookie's future with the team looks like, but he's a special player that exemplifies everything I love about the Red Sox. As I posted in the game thread last night, I watched the season's final play where Mookie scored from first on a dribbler to rightfield with my 7 month-year-old son and celebrated like the Sox won the world series. I desperately want Mookie to be the Red Sox legend he grows up watching and to experience plays like that when he's old enough to enjoy them. I would gladly let JDM walk and trade away some bad money contracts for pennies on the dollar if it affords the Sox the opportunity to rebuild this team around Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers, even if that means overpaying Mookie to play solid if not great baseball into his mid-30s.
Edit: format, clarity, grammar