Minor league thread 2022

Cesar Crespo

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5ip 6k/0bb 3h 0r today.
Looks like he figured something out, is getting stronger/healthier, or was allowed to unleash a pitch that he or the Sox were holding back the first 5 games.. Or a combination of them. The last 2 games saw a huge jump in swinging strikes. Could also just be noise, but anytime someone has more swinging strikes in their last 2 games than their first 6, it's worth nothing. Especially for developing players returning from a big injury.
Game 1: 45 pc, 5 strikes swinging
Game 2: 55, 4
Game 3: 44, 3
Game 4: 62, 4
Game 5: 52, 4
Game 6: 75, 13
Game 7: 61, 11

Year: 68% strike rate, 18% Strikes Looking, 11% strikes swinging. 55% GB%.
First 6 games: 8% Swinging strikes
Last 2 games: 18% Swinging strikes

First 6 games: 20 Swinging Strikes
Last 2 games: 24 Swinging Strikes

Last 5 games: 1.23 era, 22.0 ip, 15 hits, 3r/3er, 2bb/26k, 1hbp, 1 HRA.
Last 3 games: 0.64 era, 14.0 ip, 8 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/22k, 1hbp, 1 HRA.

If he keeps dominating, I wonder if he gets promoted to Greenville given he's 23 on August 30th.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Miguel Bleis was 3/5 with 2 HRs and a double yesterday. Up to .281/.326/.512 in 89 PA, 5bb/23k, 11 xbh, 3 HRs, 7sb/1cs.

Johnfrank Salazar is slashing .321/.449/.429 in 69 PA with 12bb/6k. He got a $400k signing bonus in 2019.

Last year's 6th round pick Daniel McElveny is slashing .262/.404/.429 in 52 PA with 9bb/14k.

Lyonell James is slashing .400/.535/.556 in 58 PA. 11bb/5k. $440k bonus in 2019. He's already shown raw power while having a lot of room to add strength.

Luis De La Rosa, that guy acquired in the Benny deal, was promoted from the FCL to Salem a few days back and went 2.0 ip, 1 hit, 0r, 1bb/4k.
Season to date: 1.10 era, 16.1 ip, 6 hits, 2r/2er, 9bb/20k. 60 BF. Just turned 20.

Freddy Valdez, that other guy acquired in the Benny deal: .242/.297/.394 in 37 PA. 3xbh, 1 HR. 2bb/7k.

Luis Perales: 1.80 era, 10.0 ip, 6 hits, 2r/2er, 3bb/16k. 39 BF. Turned 19 in April. Sits in the mid 90s with movement. Has some projection left too. Wasn't highly sought after and was signed for $75k.

4th round pick Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: 1.20 era, 15.0 ip, 16 hits, 5r/2er, 3bb/16k. 65 BF. Sits in the low 90s, tops out in mid 90s. Turns 19 in August so there's room for growth.
 

Manzivino

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Thad Ward rehab start in Salem tonight: 3 perfect innings, 4 Ks on 34 pitches (25 strikes, 11 whiffs). Mata had 4 rehab starts between Salem and Greenville, I would expect Ward to be on a similar track and hit Portland in early August.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Thad Ward rehab start in Salem tonight: 3 perfect innings, 4 Ks on 34 pitches (25 strikes, 11 whiffs). Mata had 4 rehab starts between Salem and Greenville, I would expect Ward to be on a similar track and hit Portland in early August.
This was his 3rd rehab start. Up to 8 ip, 1 hit, 0 r, 0bb/13k.

Though you said Salem and Greenville, but if it's 4 starts, he'll be there in 10 days.
 

Manzivino

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This was his 3rd rehab start. Up to 8 ip, 1 hit, 0 r, 0bb/13k.

Though you said Salem and Greenville, but if it's 4 starts, he'll be there in 10 days.
I was only counting starts with full season affiliates; Mata's rehab started before the FCL season began so I equated Ward's FCL starts with Mata's work in extended spring training.

Looking at it another way, Mata was built up to 60+ pitches before being bumped to Portland. Ward threw 35 today, so I could see him throwing 45/50 next start and then throwing 60 in his Portland debut if they wanted to fast track him. If they keep him on a 5 day schedule his next 3 starts would be 7/17 - 7/22 - 7/27, I think 7/27 is a reasonable target for him to be ready for AA with 7/22 a possibility.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Kavadas 2/3 with HR #6 (at GVL) and 2bb. His line through 15 games at high-A is .333/.508/.778 with 14bb/14k.
 

Jason Bae

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Kavadas 2/3 with HR #6 (at GVL) and 2bb. His line through 15 games at high-A is .333/.508/.778 with 14bb/14k.
Nice to see he's still maintaining the high walk rate. It feels like most prospects don't draw very many walks in their first few weeks after promotions. I'll be going to tomorrow's Greenville game.

Mayer's on a tear right now. .388/.508/.755 with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 12:13 BB:K. Only 5 K's in his last 8 games, hopefully he'll continue to cut down on the K's.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I’d think Mayer had to be promoted to A+ in the next week or two with a chance at AA at some point in first half of 2023 if he doesn’t stub his toe at A+
 

Cesar Crespo

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Time for a promotion for Mayer? Lawlar is up to A+.
They wont let Matthew Lugo block him at A+, but they probably aren't in a rush to promote him just yet. He had a pretty high K rate going into July but sometimes young players "figure out the league" seemingly overnight. Moving Lugo to 2nd isn't an option either with Nick Yorke there (though he's currently out with an injury). Promoting Lugo or Yorke also isn't an option. 3b or the OF is an option for Lugo, I guess.

At the end of June, Mayer had 22bb/56k in 194 PA. 28.9% K rate.
In July, he's slashing .429/.568/.786 in 37 PA with 9bb/5k. If he keeps walking more than he is striking out, he'll force the issue and be promoted before August.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Nice to see he's still maintaining the high walk rate. It feels like most prospects don't draw very many walks in their first few weeks after promotions. I'll be going to tomorrow's Greenville game.
Striking out less, too. 22.2% K rate in 63 A+ PA. 27.6% K rate in 254 A PA.

Trying to remember the last time a Red Sox minor league player had an OPS over 1.100 for a season. I doubt he ends the season there but he's currently slashing .295/.464/.641 in 317 PA across A and A+.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Casas is currently 2/3 with 2 doubles (FCL)
Bleis is currently 2/3 with a double, a K and SB #8 for the year.

Without Rafaela playing, Portland is pretty unnoteworthy. Groome and Mata, too.
 

radsoxfan

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This is not Red Sox related, but not sure where else it goes... Does anyone follow independent leagues at all? Is there a minor league level equivalent they are generally felt to be?

I only bring it up because a family friend (Kelly Dugan) is having a great season (.326/.419/.686/1.105) and I'm curious it it means much for his major league chances. He was a 2nd round pick by the Phillies awhile ago but had a ton of injury issues, though he put up decent numbers in the minors, career minor league OPS 0.803. Now he is 31. Looks like a Dalbec replacement to me.... only half joking.

Looking at some of the stats in his league is a blast from the past. Blake Swihart with a .578 OPS in 153 ABs. Devin Marrero .630 OPS in 160 ABs. Yikes.
 

Jason Bae

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Another rough outing for Feltman (1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB), bringing his ERA up to 7.71. So weird to think that he was seen as a potential fast riser and he still hasn't reached the majors.
 

Apisith

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Groome with 6 shutout innings in his first AAA start. Mata with another excellent start in AA. The amount of good pitchers we have in the upper minors is ridiculous.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Another homer for Kavadas.
I have a June birthday. When I was a kid, this sometimes meant that I might be subject to being held back in a given sports league/age group. One year I was held back as a post-June 1 birthday and probably had a 2.000+ OPSin the first couple weeks of repeating this league against kids mostly young than me. After that week they moved me up to the appropriate league.

Niko Kavadas is the June birthday kid who needs to be moved up.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Rafaela missed the last few games. Hopefully it's nothing.

De La Rosa went 4.0 ip, 3 hits, 0r, 1bb/4k yesterday

Juan Daniel Encarnacion's last 2 starts
4.0 ip, 4 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/8k
5.0ip, 2 hits, 0r, 2bb/8k yesterday
 

amfox1

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Niko Kavadas is the June birthday kid who needs to be moved up.
Typically, an organization wants to see 200-300 PAs at a level before moving someone up, so that they can see how teams adjust to the player and how the player adjusts to the adjustments. BOS is no different.

Kavadas likely stays in Greenville for the rest of the year, with the possibility of moving to Portland for the last week or two, plus playoffs (if Portland makes it). He then likely starts next year in Portland, with a chance to move to AAA by mid-year. (Of course, this is all dependent on not trading him in two weeks, at peak value)

1B minor league depth chart
Casas (AAA, inj)
Binelas (AA)
Kavadas (A+)
Jordan (A)
 

Chainsaw318

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I’m interested in Kavadas, but everything from the draft and since seems to indicate he may be DH only.

anyone have recent reports on his defense at 1B? I’d be surprised by a report that he’s fringe-average.
 

TimScribble

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I’m interested in Kavadas, but everything from the draft and since seems to indicate he may be DH only.

anyone have recent reports on his defense at 1B? I’d be surprised by a report that he’s fringe-average.
Fringe average gets you a starting job at 1B for the Sox.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Just looking at some splits.

Kavadas
Start to May 30: 172 PA, .244/.419/.450, .354 BAbip. 34bb/49k. 18 xbh/4 HR. 28.5% K%, 19.8% BB%, 2.3% HR% 1 HR/32.8 AB.
June 1st to now: 154 PA, .363/.520/.903, .390 BAbip, 36bb/38k, 25 xbh/18 HR. 24.7% K%, 23.4% BB%, 11.7% HR%. 1 HR/6.3 AB.

From the start to end of May, he put the ball in play 79 times out of 172 PA or 45.9% of the time.
Since June 1st to now, he has put the ball in play 59 times in 154 PA or 38.3% of the time. That is all kinds of ridiculous.

Obviously, he had that huge June but his July currently sits at .273/.479/.636 in 48 PA. 12bb/12k, 4 xbh/4HR. 25.0% K and BB%, 8.3% HR%, 1 HR/8.3 AB.

Since joining Portland, he has been on base in all 17 games.
He's been on base at least twice in 13 games.
3 or more times in 5 games.
4 times in 1 game.

2 or more times in 13 of 17 games. That's crazy. Though he does have an OBP of .514 over 72 PA at the level.

What an absolutely insane stretch. I don't remember any stretch like this (Sox specific) in the farm in my 25 ish years following.

I think (I could have missed someone) the last time a Sox farmhand had an OPS of 1.100+ for a season was 2000, by Tony Blanco. That was in 215 PA. And upon closer look, he finished with a 1.020 OPS due to some Lowell PA, so he doesn't qualify either.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was a big Mata fan his first 2 years but soured on him during his 2018 campaign. Maybe unfairly given how young he was compared to the league and his trend towards GB. His 2019 was better than I remember it being, too. He reached AA not long after his 20th birthday.

They don't keep these numbers in the GCL so I'll start with his 2017.

2017: Strike %: 64% StL: 18% StS: 12% GB%: 52%. 22.7% K% 8.0% BB%
2018: Strike %: 56% StL: 19% StS: 9% GB%: 58% 18.7% K% 17.7% BB%
2019: Strike % 62% StL: 17% StS: 12% GB%: 60% 24.7% K% 9.3% BB%
2022: Strike% 59% StL: 17% StS: 14% GB: 46% 34.5% K% 14.2% BB%.

Super small sample size and after not pitching for 2+ years, but the early results are interesting. I wonder if it's more than just noise and a change in approach. He'd be pretty deadly if he could somehow combine this year's K% with his past GB%.

----
Casas was 1/4 with a double, BB and a K (FCL)
Barnes went 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/0er, 0bb/2k. (FCL)
Salazar went 2/3 with a BB.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Rafeala will play in the Futures Game at some point tonight.

Future Yankees mega prospect bust Jasson Dominguez awkwardly lumbered his way to a routine warning track fly before the ball clanged off his glove for a horrendous error.

Dobbins with 5 more clean innings today, 4k/0bb. All three runs were unearned (Salem has four errors).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dobbins with 5 more clean innings today, 4k/0bb. All three runs were unearned (Salem has four errors).
Last 4: 0.47 era, 19.0 ip, 14 hits, 4r/1er, 1bb/26k. Obviously a binky of mine but he has a legit chance to become a real prospect a la Bello. Wonder if he gets promoted soon and also want to see how many swinging strikes he had in this game and if the trend continues. I'm guessing they just keep him at Salem given this is his first exposure to pro baseball. From what I've read, he's currently sitting around 92-94 and tops out at 98, has a 76-80mph curveball and a CU and slider that are in the works. I guess his dad has been a huge Red Sox fan since he was little as well and was a pro player (independent leagues anyway). I think his Dad was Lance Dobbins, given Lance tweets about Hunter. I could be off. Hunter retweeted an Alex Spier tweet on 7/8:
Alex Speier
@alexspeier

·
Jul 8

Also in Minor Details - an intriguing emerging pitching prospect: RHP Hunter Dobbins, an 8th rounder last year coming off TJ at Texas Tech, is again pitching and touching 97 mph with a four-pitch mix


----

Paulino is currently 2/4 with a 3b, k.
Mayer is 1/3 with a k.
Jordan is 1/4.
Bonaci is 1/3 with a double, a bb and a k. 59bb/59k in 260 PA. 22.7% K% and BB%. Really hope he develops some power because he mostly has everything else. His batting average could be a little better but I wonder how much of that is just not swinging at junk and if he moves up the ladder, his average improves.

Kavadas is 0/2 with a bb and hbp. That brings it up to 14 games reaching base at least 2 times out of a total 18 games. He's reached based in all 18 games. He has now reached base in 38 straight games. He has reached based twice in 25 of those 38 games.
He has reached based 3 or more times in 12 of those 38 games. He has reached based at least 4 times in 6 games. He reached based 5 times in 1.

Lugo is 0/4 with 3k. He's been in a deep funk of late.

Hickey is 0/3 with a bb/k. He deserves more attention than he's been getting.

Castellanos is currently 1/4.

Roberto Hernandez is currently 2/4 with a HR. While he doesn't walk nearly as much as one would like, he's quietly having another good year. He was at .282/.301/.456 entering the game

Bello went 3.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/1er, 1bb/4k.

Hamilton has been struggling of late but is 1/4 and got stolen base #37 in game number 72.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Ceddanne Rafaela featured in a FanGraphs piece on ZIPs breakouts among prospects. The write-up says he's currently the best defensive CF in the minors.
"Jackie Bradley Jr.’s return to Beantown hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. While he’s providing more offense for the Red Sox than he did with the Brewers, that’s as vicious an example of damning with faint praise as you’re likely to find. If Boston can’t get the old JBJ back, well, it’s time to look for a new one. Thanks to a heckuva breakout with the bat across two levels this year, Ceddanne Rafaela hits all the JBJ highlights: top-notch glove in center, surprising power, and good, though not exceptional, speed. ZiPS isn’t a fan of Rafaela’s defense in the infield, seeing it more as a flexibility cherry on top of the profile rather than a viable set of alternative positions, but it ranks him as the best defensive center fielder in the minors in 2022."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-breakouts-in-saturdays-futures-game/

Edit: He went 0-2 with 2 Ks in the Futures Game

I'm disappointed with the JBJ comp, as I prefer the Mookie comp (without Mookie's elite plate discipline, which is of course a huge difference).
 

Jason Bae

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Ceddanne Rafaela featured in a FanGraphs piece on ZIPs breakouts among prospects. The write-up says he's currently the best defensive CF in the minors.
"Jackie Bradley Jr.’s return to Beantown hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. While he’s providing more offense for the Red Sox than he did with the Brewers, that’s as vicious an example of damning with faint praise as you’re likely to find. If Boston can’t get the old JBJ back, well, it’s time to look for a new one. Thanks to a heckuva breakout with the bat across two levels this year, Ceddanne Rafaela hits all the JBJ highlights: top-notch glove in center, surprising power, and good, though not exceptional, speed. ZiPS isn’t a fan of Rafaela’s defense in the infield, seeing it more as a flexibility cherry on top of the profile rather than a viable set of alternative positions, but it ranks him as the best defensive center fielder in the minors in 2022."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-breakouts-in-saturdays-futures-game/

Edit: He went 0-2 with 2 Ks in the Futures Game

I'm disappointed with the JBJ comp, as I prefer the Mookie comp (without Mookie's elite plate discipline, which is of course a huge difference).
Maybe Starling Marte? :)

David Hamilton's had a rough couple of months, but he did steal 3 bases today. He's now at 40 on the season while getting caught only 4 times. Binelas also hit two homers.
 

Brianish

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It has to be Mayer. Outside of a small set of nerds, no one knows who Blaze Jordan is.
True, but there's probably some overlap in the Venn diagram of those nerds and people who follow the Salem Sox' Twitter account.

But yeah, the smart money is certainly on Mayer.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Which means Lugo to 2b.

Also opens up SS for one of/both of Romero and Coffey, though Paulino is still there. Paulino has been playing a lot of 2b, 3b and even CF though. He got time at SS this year mostly due to Mayer's injury.

If Mayer is getting promoted, there are probably a bunch of other promotions coming too.

edit: Mayer's July really jumps out due to the 13bb/9k. Prior to that, he had 22bb/56k. It almost "screams" promotion.
 

burstnbloom

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Ceddanne Rafaela featured in a FanGraphs piece on ZIPs breakouts among prospects. The write-up says he's currently the best defensive CF in the minors.
"Jackie Bradley Jr.’s return to Beantown hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. While he’s providing more offense for the Red Sox than he did with the Brewers, that’s as vicious an example of damning with faint praise as you’re likely to find. If Boston can’t get the old JBJ back, well, it’s time to look for a new one. Thanks to a heckuva breakout with the bat across two levels this year, Ceddanne Rafaela hits all the JBJ highlights: top-notch glove in center, surprising power, and good, though not exceptional, speed. ZiPS isn’t a fan of Rafaela’s defense in the infield, seeing it more as a flexibility cherry on top of the profile rather than a viable set of alternative positions, but it ranks him as the best defensive center fielder in the minors in 2022."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-breakouts-in-saturdays-futures-game/

Edit: He went 0-2 with 2 Ks in the Futures Game

I'm disappointed with the JBJ comp, as I prefer the Mookie comp (without Mookie's elite plate discipline, which is of course a huge difference).
the aforementioned plate discipline is always going to keep Rafaela from having a ceiling like Mookie's. I think the JBJ comp is also a little weird because he's certainly not the aggressive strike attacker that Rafeala has shown to be this year, but don't forget when Jackie was at the levels Rafaela is at now, we used to joke that he had more xBH than K's. In high A he had a 1.006 OPS before being promoted midyear to post .809 OPS in Portland as a 22yo. A lot of what we think about Jackie now causes people to forget what we thought of him before his call up in 2013 and the weird inconsistency and yo-yo that likely altered his career trajectory.
 

Cesar Crespo

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the aforementioned plate discipline is always going to keep Rafaela from having a ceiling like Mookie's. I think the JBJ comp is also a little weird because he's certainly not the aggressive strike attacker that Rafeala has shown to be this year, but don't forget when Jackie was at the levels Rafaela is at now, we used to joke that he had more xBH than K's. In high A he had a 1.006 OPS before being promoted midyear to post .809 OPS in Portland as a 22yo. A lot of what we think about Jackie now causes people to forget what we thought of him before his call up in 2013 and the weird inconsistency and yo-yo that likely altered his career trajectory.
For a 6 year stretch, JBJ put up a 101 OPS+. Put up 17.8 WAR, with at least 2.0 WAR each season. Rafaela could do a lot worse than JBJ.

JBJ had a lot of excitement but I think most people adjusted his performance in high A because of his age and college experience. JBJ was 5 months older during his high A/AA season than Rafaela, but Rafaela also missed an entire year of development due to Covid.

It is a weird comp though. JBJ actually walked a lot in the minors, I also think Rafaela's plate discipline is overblown. He doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he has a 22.0% K% this year across levels. At the higher level (AA), its only 18.0%. While one would like him to walk more, he should be putting the ball in play enough to hit for a high enough average. This is especially true since he's fast.

I also think it's worth noting that even the most optimistic of us have Rafaela 6th in the Sox farm. When prospect lists come out, he'll probably rank in the 70-100 area. After Betts first break out year, he was in the 60s and 70s. The following year, he blew up but he lost his prospect status and was never officially on any other lists. Hopefully the same thing happens to Rafaela. But I think it's worth nothing that Rafaela is 6-10 in the Sox farm. He's never come close to matching his performance. I'm all on board but it might be wise to pump the breaks a little. FWIW, after Betts first break out year, people on here were hoping for Tony Phillips. They questioned if he'd continue to hit for that much power given his size. Tony Phillips is a better outcome than JBJ but hard to be disappointed if someone ends up giving us 6 years of at least league average production.

Rafaela's 1% outcome is probably a player as good as Mookie Betts but it would be more slugging heavy.
 

Brianish

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Which means Lugo to 2b.

Also opens up SS for one of/both of Romero and Coffey, though Paulino is still there. Paulino has been playing a lot of 2b, 3b and even CF though. He got time at SS this year mostly due to Mayer's injury.

If Mayer is getting promoted, there are probably a bunch of other promotions coming too.

edit: Mayer's July really jumps out due to the 13bb/9k. Prior to that, he had 22bb/56k. It almost "screams" promotion.
Possible the social media kid just got in trouble for jumping the gun, but it's worth noting that the tweet has been deleted.
 

burstnbloom

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For a 6 year stretch, JBJ put up a 101 OPS+. Put up 17.8 WAR, with at least 2.0 WAR each season. Rafaela could do a lot worse than JBJ.

JBJ had a lot of excitement but I think most people adjusted his performance in high A because of his age and college experience. JBJ was 5 months older during his high A/AA season than Rafaela, but Rafaela also missed an entire year of development due to Covid.

It is a weird comp though. JBJ actually walked a lot in the minors, I also think Rafaela's plate discipline is overblown. He doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he has a 22.0% K% this year across levels. At the higher level (AA), its only 18.0%. While one would like him to walk more, he should be putting the ball in play enough to hit for a high enough average. This is especially true since he's fast.

I also think it's worth noting that even the most optimistic of us have Rafaela 6th in the Sox farm. When prospect lists come out, he'll probably rank in the 70-100 area. After Betts first break out year, he was in the 60s and 70s. The following year, he blew up but he lost his prospect status and was never officially on any other lists. Hopefully the same thing happens to Rafaela. But I think it's worth nothing that Rafaela is 6-10 in the Sox farm. He's never come close to matching his performance. I'm all on board but it might be wise to pump the breaks a little. FWIW, after Betts first break out year, people on here were hoping for Tony Phillips. They questioned if he'd continue to hit for that much power given his size. Tony Phillips is a better outcome than JBJ but hard to be disappointed if someone ends up giving us 6 years of at least league average production.

Rafaela's 1% outcome is probably a player as good as Mookie Betts but it would be more slugging heavy.
@Jason Bae said Starling Marte and I think thats pretty close to right. Pretty good OF defender in his prime. Good hit tool, good slug. 5ish% walk rate. He's a super aggressive strike attacker who swings at 70% of the pitches in the zone and gets good contact on them. Feels pretty close and would be an unbelievably exciting outcome for Rafaela.
 

mikcou

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For a 6 year stretch, JBJ put up a 101 OPS+. Put up 17.8 WAR, with at least 2.0 WAR each season. Rafaela could do a lot worse than JBJ.

JBJ had a lot of excitement but I think most people adjusted his performance in high A because of his age and college experience. JBJ was 5 months older during his high A/AA season than Rafaela, but Rafaela also missed an entire year of development due to Covid.

It is a weird comp though. JBJ actually walked a lot in the minors, I also think Rafaela's plate discipline is overblown. He doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he has a 22.0% K% this year across levels. At the higher level (AA), its only 18.0%. While one would like him to walk more, he should be putting the ball in play enough to hit for a high enough average. This is especially true since he's fast.

I also think it's worth noting that even the most optimistic of us have Rafaela 6th in the Sox farm. When prospect lists come out, he'll probably rank in the 70-100 area. After Betts first break out year, he was in the 60s and 70s. The following year, he blew up but he lost his prospect status and was never officially on any other lists. Hopefully the same thing happens to Rafaela. But I think it's worth nothing that Rafaela is 6-10 in the Sox farm. He's never come close to matching his performance. I'm all on board but it might be wise to pump the breaks a little. FWIW, after Betts first break out year, people on here were hoping for Tony Phillips. They questioned if he'd continue to hit for that much power given his size. Tony Phillips is a better outcome than JBJ but hard to be disappointed if someone ends up giving us 6 years of at least league average production.

Rafaela's 1% outcome is probably a player as good as Mookie Betts but it would be more slugging heavy.
JBJ also played his High A season in Lancaster, which made the current Worcester Polar Vortex seem like a standard wind stadium. Comparing power numbers there to either Salem or Greenville isnt comparing like with like. Outside of Lancaster, JBJ never showed any plus power - more like the 50ish power that he showed in the majors. Rafaela really looks like he might have 60-65 power.

I agree that Mookie similar player would be more slugging heavy and a 99th percentile outcome, but his realistic ceiling (say 80th percentile), seems like it could be a JBJ with more power - this JBJs best seasons (2015/2016) as a baseline with maybe a couple outlier seasons where hes a true power guy. Of course, his median outcome at this point is probably a AAAA washout given the plate discipline, but there's some realistic 4 win upside between the defense and power without him going Mookie.