Toe Nash said:
Shero has a terrible drafting record though, and Washington is low on overall talent. I mean that's basically the reason he was fired - their bottom 6 was awful. Maybe the blame goes more to their scouting but since Shero took over here are the players with any NHL impact that he's drafted:
2006: Staal - hard to screw up the #2 overall pick, but could have taken Toews (or Backstrom or Kessel)
Brian Strait
2007: Bortuzzo, Muzzin, Jeffrey (but didn't sign Muzzin)
2008: no one
2009: Despres
2010: Bennett
2011: no one (Joe Morrow being the best prospect)
2012: Maatta
That's not a lot of help.
I think you're overestimating how many prospects hit from the draft, especially when you draft from the low first round and later. Let's look at Chiarelli in the same light as you just portrayed Shero.
2006: Kessel (same cluster of can't miss as the Staal pick), Lucic, Marchand... great value in the 2nd and 3rd. This was a phenomenal draft, though it happened like a month after Chiarelli was hired. How much was he even responsible for a lot of these picks?
2007: Absolutely nothing. Zach Hamill is the only guy to even play in the NHL from that draft, and he was an 8th overall pick who has 0 NHL goals.
2008: Joe Colborne was a mid-first rounder and the "best" player of the group. The next best... Michael Hutchinson of 3 NHL games?
2009: Jordan Caron is the top pick, and then Lane MacDermid...
2010: Seguin was an easy pick at 2. Knight was a very high second rounder who still hasn't played at the NHL level. Spooner and Florek have played a little, but hardly been major contributors so far.
2011: Hamilton was another good pick, though an easy and obvious one. Nobody else has made an NHL impact.
2012: No NHL players.
In other words, outside of Kessel, Seguin, and Hamilton, the top-10 picks with can't miss labels, the only guys Chiarelli has really hit on to make an NHL impact so far are Lucic and Marchand back in 2006 when it's unclear how much prep he even did on that draft.
You can also look at Shero in a more favorite light, too:
2006: As you said, hard to screw up the 2nd pick in this draft. Shero could have had someone better than Staal, but there was a log jam at the top that year. Chad Johnson in the 5th doesn't look like a bad pick either these days.
2007: This is definitely a bad draft on paper, but not as bad as it appears. Bortuzzo in the 3rd is their best remaining piece, and that isn't great. Muzzin in the 5th round was actually a great pick, and Jeffrey in the 6th wasn't bad. The Penguins actually traded their 1st rounder, Angelo Esposito, before he ever even left juniors. He helped them get Hossa and Dupuis -- a great haul. So, it's possible that either (a) Atlanta screwed up his development or (b) Shero was smart enough to unload the goods before people realized they weren't good. Either way, Shero turned that first round pick into something nice.
2008: You're right that the Pens didn't get anyone this year, but their first pick wasn't until 120th overall. That's not surprising.
2009: Despres was a solid pick and he was the last pick of the first round. Their next pick didn't come until 61st overall. At that point, it's hardly expected that you hit, though nice when you do. Hanowski in the third was part of the Iginla package so he added value.
2010: Bennett could still be something as their first rounder, as he still looks to have some promise as a top-6 winger (he's just 22). And then they didn't pick until 80th overall. Agostino in the 5th was also packaged for Iginla.
2011: Morrow and Harrington were taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds respectively, then they didn't pick until the 5th.
2012: Maatta is already a very talented regular NHL defenseman and Olympic medalist despite still being 19-years-old. He looks like a great pick. (I was actually clamoring for the Caps to pick Maatta over Wilson at the time since I loved his game in London.) Pouliot was just named first-team All Star in juniors and was nominated for WHL Defenseman of the Year.
2013: First pick Tristan Jarry, a goalie, just lead the WHL in games, GAA, wins, and shutouts as an absolute horse for the Oil Kings. He lead them to a WHL championship and into the Memorial Cup. He was named a first-team All-Star and nominated for WHL Goalie of the Year as an 18-year-old.
I'm not saying Shero is some great drafter, but I think he's pretty par for the course. When you draft in the 20s and end up trading high picks to add deadline pieces, you're not going to have a ton of success in the draft.