Mavs give up

Phil Plantier

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So the Mavs decided that they'd rather have the #10 pick than try to make the play-in. This seems like an escalation of tanking/load management. The Mavs had a chance to win the championship: not a good chance, certainly, but can the NBA allow a team to opt out of the play-in?

I don't remember this happening before - even the famous White Sox "White Flag" trade was more defensible than sitting 5 players (2 for "rest") and only playing Doncic one quarter.

So far the Mavs have been fined 600k. I bet the reanimated corpse of David Stern would take away their first round pick.
 

worm0082

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They should face stiff penalties for this. Taking away next years pick sounds right. Otherwise you create a precedent for this nonsense to continue.
 

nighthob

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I'm rooting for Chicago to finish 38-44 and lose the play-in, but win the coin flip with Dallas, leaving the Mavs out in the cold.

EDIT: Check that. I hope the Bulls empty the bench tonight and throw the Mavs game away thus crushing Dallas's hopes of maintaining their pick.
 

JCizzle

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Is it really that different from what the Blazers decided to do a couple weeks ago? Some of the lineups they've been throwing out for weeks have been a total joke.
 

The Social Chair

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Should a player make all-NBA if he couldn't get his team to the play-in game in the west? I'd vote for Luka but I wouldn’t feel good about it. This isn't baseball. A top 6 forward should get his team to the playoffs.
 

Phil Plantier

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Is it really that different from what the Blazers decided to do a couple weeks ago? Some of the lineups they've been throwing out for weeks have been a total joke.
This is a good question. I'm not sure why, but doing this with 20 games to go while 1.5 games out* seems less egregious than doing it with 2 games to go while 1 game out.

*I picked March 4 as the date of the tank, but I might be off. I forget when they started sitting everyone.
 

Euclis20

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This is a good question. I'm not sure why, but doing this with 20 games to go while 1.5 games out* seems less egregious than doing it with 2 games to go while 1 game out.

*I picked March 4 as the date of the tank, but I might be off. I forget when they started sitting everyone.
Yeah that's not it. Lillard's last game was March 22nd and the first game he sat was March 24th, that's the game to look at. Portland was 13th, 3.5 games out of 10th.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is it really that different from what the Blazers decided to do a couple weeks ago? Some of the lineups they've been throwing out for weeks have been a total joke.
A bit yes, Blazers were in 13th place and basically shut down one guy who was playing kinda hurt. The Mavs are benching most of their lineup while tight in the playoff chase specifically because the team they are playing tonight is one game ahead of them in the lottery and finishing 10th worst significantly increases their chances of keeping a pick.

Edit- amusingly because it's April and weird stuff happens in April in the NBA they might still win.
 

bigq

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Should a player make all-NBA if he couldn't get his team to the play-in game in the west? I'd vote for Luka but I wouldn’t feel good about it. This isn't baseball. A top 6 forward should get his team to the playoffs.
A top 6 guard would be a completely different story. ;)
 

GreenMonster49

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Up 13 at the half instead of up by 10 thanks to a bomb from halfcourt at the end of the half.

Luka played the entire first quarter, scored on the Mavericks’ first possession in the second, then committed a take foul so Frank Ntilikina could replace him. Doncic has yet to return to action.
 

nattysez

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Chicago only down by 6 starting the 4th. Kidd is so desperate that he's playing almost all end of the bench guys. Frankie Smokes is up to 30 mins.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Bulls are up 8, only 9 points in 9 minutes this quarter for the Mavs. I'm not watching but I'm guessing this is as close to blatant tanking in a single game as it comes?
 

Phil Plantier

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Luka on the bench laughing while his team gets eliminated from playoff contention.
It was an amazing ending. Bullock and Doncic on the bench. Mavs had 3 chances to tie with their end-of-bench players.

There's a difference between resting players for a game and not even playing the best available players.
 

jmcc5400

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It was an amazing ending. Bullock and Doncic on the bench. Mavs had 3 chances to tie with their end-of-bench players.

There's a difference between resting players for a game and not even playing the best available players.
Imagine paying for tickets to that game. I usually roll my eyes at fan class actions, but Jesus Christ this is outrageous.
 

GreenMonster49

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The Mavs played their two two-way players (Wright and Lawson) for 23 and 22 minutes. They were -19 and -17 for the game. Worst +/- was Bullock, at -27, who led the team in minutes. Meanwhile, Markieff Morris had 13 points in 8 second-quarter minutes and was benched for the entire second half.

The players were trying to win but the team clearly was trying to lose. Can we relegate them to the G League?
 

lars10

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The Mavs played their two two-way players (Wright and Lawson) for 23 and 22 minutes. They were -19 and -17 for the game. Worst +/- was Bullock, at -27, who led the team in minutes. Meanwhile, Markieff Morris had 13 points in 8 second-quarter minutes and was benched for the entire second half.

The players were trying to win but the team clearly was trying to lose. Can we relegate them to the G League?
The bolded is basically the antithesis of what a sporting event should be.. if you're going to actively play to lose then you don't deserve to be a pro team. It is why American sports should have relegation instead of a reward getting you possibly one of the best possible players the next year. Instead of having a lottery for the bottom teams they should have a lottery for every team other than the top four or something.. and reverse the odds from worst to fifth or something.. make it so that you actually want to win. I know that would lead to more bad teams perpetually losing probably.. but that's why their should be relegation.

What's 'fun' about relegation is that the end of the season is important for the top and the bottom teams.

Not sure how a team of pros comes back next year and looks at Jason Kidd the same way either. He didn't have to go along with it..he could have taken a stand... but instead went the easy way out and made the loss happen. Wonder how he would have felt as a player.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Should a player make all-NBA if he couldn't get his team to the play-in game in the west? I'd vote for Luka but I wouldn’t feel good about it. This isn't baseball. A top 6 forward should get his team to the playoffs.
I dunno. This is arguably the worst 3 to 15 personnel in the league.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Meh. This is only a thing because of Kyrie and, to a lesser extent, Cuban.

Dudes trying to do what's best for his franchise. Who gives a shit?
 

lovegtm

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Should a player make all-NBA if he couldn't get his team to the play-in game in the west? I'd vote for Luka but I wouldn’t feel good about it. This isn't baseball. A top 6 forward should get his team to the playoffs.
At the very least, this is why I never bought the idea that Luka is obviously better than Tatum. Defense matters, and one of the ways that shows up is in team record over the long season. It also makes it harder to fit guys around Luka, and makes it impossible to bring in someone like Kyrie and expect it to really work consistently.
 

BigSoxFan

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Meh. This is only a thing because of Kyrie and, to a lesser extent, Cuban.

Dudes trying to do what's best for his franchise. Who gives a shit?
Yeah, I don’t really care about teams tanking and this is a great year to do it, especially for a team like the Mavs that desperately needs another impact player. They now have a 14% chance at a top 4 pick and 3% at Wembanyama. Far from a guarantee but better than getting waxed in playoffs and having no shot.
 

lovegtm

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If Luka had an ounce of integrity, he'd demand a trade this off-season.
If you were a Mavs fan, or a Mavs player looking beyond this year, would you want them to do anything other than tank and keep the pick?

We all know the answer is "no", so I don't see why it would be different for Luka.

If the sentiment is "Luka might ask for a trade soon because the Mavs are a dumpster fire", then I agree.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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At the very least, this is why I never bought the idea that Luka is obviously better than Tatum. Defense matters, and one of the ways that shows up is in team record over the long season. It also makes it harder to fit guys around Luka, and makes it impossible to bring in someone like Kyrie and expect it to really work consistently.
To be fair, bringing in Kyrie would not work with Russell, Jordan, LeBron and Magic around him.

Until Russ killed him.
 

lovegtm

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To be fair, bringing in Kyrie would not work with Russell, Jordan, LeBron and Magic around him.

Until Russ killed him.
The Cavs, Celtics, and Nets all won with Kyrie on the floor, when he played with their good players. They may not have won as much as they wanted (although the 2015-17 Cavs, the 2018 Celtics, and the 2021 Nets were all really really good with him), but they won.

Dallas has been something else entirely, and Luka has to take some blame for how badly it works.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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The Cavs, Celtics, and Nets all won with Kyrie on the floor, when he played with their good players. They may not have won as much as they wanted (although the 2015-17 Cavs, the 2018 Celtics, and the 2021 Nets were all really really good with him), but they won.

Dallas has been something else entirely, and Luka has to take some blame for how badly it works.
We have different definitions of “won”. I don’t deny Kyrie is a great player, but he hasn’t Won anything in a long time. And he is the common link on multiple teams underachieving
 

the moops

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They should face stiff penalties for this. Taking away next years pick sounds right. Otherwise you create a precedent for this nonsense to continue.
This post is nonsense. Teams have tanked for entire years, multiple years even. Why do you think we should penalize a team for trying all year, then giving up the last week when they realize their fate?
 

lexrageorge

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The Cavs, Celtics, and Nets all won with Kyrie on the floor, when he played with their good players. They may not have won as much as they wanted (although the 2015-17 Cavs, the 2018 Celtics, and the 2021 Nets were all really really good with him), but they won.

Dallas has been something else entirely, and Luka has to take some blame for how badly it works.
We have different definitions of “won”. I don’t deny Kyrie is a great player, but he hasn’t Won anything in a long time. And he is the common link on multiple teams underachieving
His teams won when (a) he was healthy; and (b) his superstar teammate(s) were healthy; and (c) he had a good complementary roster around him. He really cannot be the #1 on any team, and while he can be a very good to excellent #2 or #3, it has to be with the right roster. KD and Harden was one such example, but then Kyrie got hurt at critical time in the playoffs.
 

Phil Plantier

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This post is nonsense. Teams have tanked for entire years, multiple years even. Why do you think we should penalize a team for trying all year, then giving up the last week when they realize their fate?
How was their fate "realized"? Did they really have a 0% chance to win the championship if they had qualified? I would've put their chances over all the other play-in teams (except the Lakers).

Different sport, but: remember the flak the Eagles got for tanking their last game? And they were eliminated from the playoffs at the time.

I think there's a difference between sitting a bunch of people for injuries or "injuries" (which is another problem that the NBA has to address) and trying to lose a game to miss the play-in.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Rule change: Winners of the play-in tournament get into the lottery, while losers of the tournament who are kicked out of it. Basically, #7 and #8 seeds are in the lottery, #9 and #10 seeds are not, regardless of record.
 

the moops

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Different sport, but: remember the flak the Eagles got for tanking their last game?
I'm a casual football fan, certainly more engaged in it than the general watching public, and I have no idea what you are talking about in regards to the Eagles. Same is, or will be true, for 95% of NBA fans when it comes to what the Mavs did. It just doesn't matter
 

m0ckduck

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Rule change: Winners of the play-in tournament get into the lottery, while losers of the tournament who are kicked out of it. Basically, #7 and #8 seeds are in the lottery, #9 and #10 seeds are not, regardless of record.
Wouldn't this just increase DAL's incentive to miss the play-in altogether, if you reduce the draft equity associated with getting in to the play-in?

The only answer in my mind is— boringly enough— smoothing out the curve of the draft lottery so much that there aren't any "shelves"-- jumps in lottery odds where losing a single game or two has an outsized influence on lottery odds:
  • Team 1 > 14.0%
  • Team 2 > 14.0%
  • Team 3 >14.0%
  • Team 4 > 12.5%
  • Team 5 > 10.5%
  • Team 6 > 9.0%
  • Team 7 > 7.5%
  • Team 8 > 4.5%
  • Team 9 > 4.5%
  • Team 10 > 4.5% << DAL here
  • Team 11 > 1.8%
  • Team 12 > 1.7%
  • Team 13 > 1.0%
  • Team 14 > 0.5%
The jump between 1.8% (Team 11) to 4.5% (Team 10) is too big . DAL isn't necessarily looking at getting the #1, but trying to get a "good" pick, and figure their odds increase of this by 3x by missing the play-in. Would they bother if the curve was more linear and being in spot 11 marginally increased their odds to, say, 2.5%?

Edit: oh, right, the Porzingis deal, per Raccoon's post below.
 
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The Raccoon

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Isn't their pick Top10 protected and will be gone to the NYK (Porzingis deal) if they finish 11+ in the draft order?
I think it's much more about keeping the pick (as trade capital for this summer) then some small changes in their percentage to jump into the Top4.
 

benhogan

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I dunno. This is arguably the worst 3 to 15 personnel in the league.
The Mavs are a stew of inept front-office work, bad coaching, and terrible roster mgmt (3-15).

BUT at some point, Luka has to own some of this. His defense stinks and he shows up out of shape every year. I've been talking about this since last summer. A poster suggested they'd trade Tatum for Luka :eek: & were fine with paying the extra$$$.

I'll pose the same question I had last summer about Luka...

Question, if JT plays with good players and Luka plays with nobody. Why does Tatum eviscerate Doncic on +/- per 100 OnCourt and On/Off every season? over 4-5 seasons it shouldn't consistently contrast to such a massive degree, especially if Luka is a one-man show.

This is Luka's 5th straight season of average to good +/- and On-Off per 100, certainly not GREAT like the superstars across the NBA post. While exceptional at offense, his defense stinks & it rears its head in these two stats at the end of every season.


I'd like to see Luka show up in shape one year before Brad ships out a growing, chiseled WING. Work ethic/habits count when talking about trades for young players. Tatum's $$$ is also friendlier.

Question, if JT plays with good players and Luka plays with nobody. Why does Tatum eviscerate Doncic on +/- per 100 OnCourt and On/Off every season? over 4-5 seasons it shouldn't consistently contrast to such a massive degree, esp. if Luka is a one-man show.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01.html
 

NoXInNixon

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If you were a Mavs fan, or a Mavs player looking beyond this year, would you want them to do anything other than tank and keep the pick?

We all know the answer is "no", so I don't see why it would be different for Luka.

If the sentiment is "Luka might ask for a trade soon because the Mavs are a dumpster fire", then I agree.
As a fan, if my team had a player as good as Luka allegedly is, I want them to never give up on a season. Who's to say they can't win two games in a row to win a date with the Nuggets. And then, maybe, they pull off a miracle.

The time for tanking was before they traded away future assets for Kyrie. Once they did that, to give up on the season before they're mathematically eliminated is gutless.

And, seriously, how often does the #10 pick turn into a difference maker?
 

lovegtm

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The Mavs are a stew of inept front-office work, bad coaching, and terrible roster mgmt (3-15).

BUT at some point, Luka has to own some of this. His defense stinks and he shows up out of shape every year. I've been talking about this since last summer. A poster suggested they'd trade Tatum for Luka :eek: & were fine with paying the extra$$$.

I'll pose the same question I had last summer about Luka...

Question, if JT plays with good players and Luka plays with nobody. Why does Tatum eviscerate Doncic on +/- per 100 OnCourt and On/Off every season? over 4-5 seasons it shouldn't consistently contrast to such a massive degree, especially if Luka is a one-man show.

This is Luka's 5th straight season of average to good +/- and On-Off per 100, certainly not GREAT like the superstars across the NBA post. While exceptional at offense, his defense stinks & it rears its head in these two stats at the end of every season.
It's not just a Tatum comparison either. Nearly all the other top-10 stars get into shape and compete hard at both ends.

That said, I'd be all over Luka if he came available. Re-sign JB on the supermax, and then trade him+Smart+AllThePicks for Luka when the trade request hits in a year?
 

lovegtm

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As a fan, if my team had a player as good as Luka allegedly is, I want them to never give up on a season. Who's to say they can't win two games in a row to win a date with the Nuggets. And then, maybe, they pull off a miracle.

The time for tanking was before they traded away future assets for Kyrie. Once they did that, to give up on the season before they're mathematically eliminated is gutless.

And, seriously, how often does the #10 pick turn into a difference maker?
You don't need to make the pick. You can absolutely turn the #10 pick into a good player to complement Luka.

These takes about how Dallas should be going for it are insane to me. They suck and have a shit roster; they need ANY help they can get.
 

lovegtm

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Wow, I did not realize that Darko agreed so strongly regarding Luka, and thinks Jaylen is already as good (I can't get there, and think it's the toxic situation in Dallas).
0D9DB041-E40C-4A39-892F-135CDF50CBFB.jpeg
 

Smokey Joe

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It's not just a Tatum comparison either. Nearly all the other top-10 stars get into shape and compete hard at both ends.

That said, I'd be all over Luka if he came available. Re-sign JB on the supermax, and then trade him+Smart+AllThePicks for Luka when the trade request hits in a year?
Way too much to give up for Luka. Especially if he is asking out.
 

benhogan

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Luka was far better this season (87%) but still short of the superstar category.

I'll just re-post what @RorschachsMask said at the time, showing the contrast.

Going a little deeper on what benhogan says above. Just going by on/off and percentile, this is Tatum by season, starting with his rookie year. Per cleaning the glass.

+8.5 (91st)
+7.6 (91st)
+11 (96th)
+5.4 (81st)
+16.5 (99th)

Now Luka
-1.9 (41st)
+1.8 (63rd)
+2.2 (65th)
-0.9 (46th)

Now obviously on/off isn’t everything, but it’s a staggering difference. Especially when you consider the Celtics have the luxury of another all star caliber player, and the Mavs have struggled finding that second guy.

Luka may have the higher ceiling, but Tatum is absolutely the bigger difference maker as of now.
The somewhat hilarious part is pairing Luka with Kyrie, who has also been OK to good on +/- & On-Off for the last 4 seasons in Brooklyn. If Kyrie turns a spectacular month in Dallas into a MAX deal then the MAVS have what's coming to them.

2019-20 +.3 (55%)
2020-21 +1.8 (63%)
2021-22 +5 (78%)
2022-23 +4.7 (78%)