Just in the last week we’ve seen Machado pull at Arcia while sliding into second and kick Aguilar while running through first.
Lineup in NL Park for WS
- Thread starter Marbleheader
- Start date
The concern for Mookie is touching, but Cora isn’t and shouldn’t make decisions based on what kind of dirty play Manny Machado might or might not engage in. For one, that rewards dirty play. Two, Betts is a big boy.
The formula's pretty simple:
Let's say the Dodgers throw Buehler, Hill and Kershaw against the Red Sox in LA.
Games 3 & 4 - the choice is probably Benintendi / Betts / Martinez ... Holt vs. Benintendi / Bradley / Martinez ... Betts
Game 5 - Benintendi / Betts / Martinez ... Kinsler vs. Benintendi / Bradley / Martinez ... Betts
All games feature a degraded defense. Against the righties, it's Holt vs. one of Bradley or Benintendi (with Bradley likely on the bench instead of hitting 7th - catcher 8th). Against Kershaw, it's Kinsler vs. a lefty outfielder, which I think is probably a given that Bradley will sit and Kinsler will start.
I, for one, don't see Betts ever playing 2nd base.
Let's say the Dodgers throw Buehler, Hill and Kershaw against the Red Sox in LA.
Games 3 & 4 - the choice is probably Benintendi / Betts / Martinez ... Holt vs. Benintendi / Bradley / Martinez ... Betts
Game 5 - Benintendi / Betts / Martinez ... Kinsler vs. Benintendi / Bradley / Martinez ... Betts
All games feature a degraded defense. Against the righties, it's Holt vs. one of Bradley or Benintendi (with Bradley likely on the bench instead of hitting 7th - catcher 8th). Against Kershaw, it's Kinsler vs. a lefty outfielder, which I think is probably a given that Bradley will sit and Kinsler will start.
I, for one, don't see Betts ever playing 2nd base.
Are you treating Hill as an honorary righty because he's good at getting RHH out?
When did Rich switch arms?
Shit - I guess "3 & 4" becomes "3"...and "4 & 5"
I hate making mistakes like that.
That's a lot of Kinsler.
in games 4 and 5 vs lefties, it's probably mookie in CF and Kinsler at 2B. I'm OK with this. Mookie in center is just a slight downgrade from JBJ, but Kinsler should be an upgrade over JBJ at the plate against the lefties.
With a late lead JBJ can go back to CF, mookie to RF and jdm to the bench(sure would suck if LA ties or goes ahead late and lose jdm bat in key spot though)
In game 3 vs ferris, I would start mookie at 2B.
With a late lead JBJ can go back to CF, mookie to RF and jdm to the bench(sure would suck if LA ties or goes ahead late and lose jdm bat in key spot though)
In game 3 vs ferris, I would start mookie at 2B.
It's simple for every game but 3. Games 4 & 5 vs. Hill and Kershaw, one of JBJ or Beni sits for JDM to play LF or RF; otherwise, our normal defense.
Game 3, it's either Beni/JBJ/JDM with Betts at 2B or JDM/Beni-or-JBJ/Betts with (probably) Holt at 2B. I don't think we'll have any way of knowing which till Cora tells us. Unlike geoduck I don't think there's a clear advantage to either approach unless you assume that Betts is a really problematic 2B defender or that the distraction of playing there is likely to affect his offense negatively. Both of which are possible, but Cora obviously will know better than us how likely they are to be true.
Game 3, it's either Beni/JBJ/JDM with Betts at 2B or JDM/Beni-or-JBJ/Betts with (probably) Holt at 2B. I don't think we'll have any way of knowing which till Cora tells us. Unlike geoduck I don't think there's a clear advantage to either approach unless you assume that Betts is a really problematic 2B defender or that the distraction of playing there is likely to affect his offense negatively. Both of which are possible, but Cora obviously will know better than us how likely they are to be true.
Does it matter that Kershaw has had a reverse split the past two seasons and Hill had no split this season and a big reverse split last season?
I'm informed by people who seem knowledgeable that reverse splits are unicorns.
I admit I have a hard time seeing how this can be true unless you take it as axiomatic that all hitters have exactly the same real platoon split tendency, and any variation in the actual splits from hitter to hitter is 100% sample size illusion. After all, if it's possible for hitter A to have a more pronounced normal split tendency than hitter B, then what magical force limits whatever factors account for that difference to a range that doesn't include reverse splits? But that's what I'm told.
But even if Kershaw and Hill don't have normal splits, Beni and JBJ do, so it's probably still good sense to keep one of them out of the lineup vs. those guys. Looking at their repertoires and splits, I might start Beni vs. both, even though JBJ is the hotter hitter of the two right now, because both of them prominently feature breaking stuff, and that's what JBJ struggles with most. But the Sox will of course have some very sophisticated matchup analysis that may tell a different story.
Dodger Stadium is symmetrical all the way around, so the difficulty of playing LF or RF isn't a factor in deciding where to play JD when he has to play the OF. Well, he has to backhand a ball hit toward the deeper parts of the outfield when he's playing in RF, opposite of that in LF. FWIW. I hate this shit anyway (doing handstands caused by no DH rule). No, the dimensions of Dodger Stadium haven't changed since 2014.
I thought that when JBJ was hitting poorly this summer it was primarily because he couldn't catch up to the fastball.
I dunno, but Statcast says he did much better vs. LHP on FB than on breaking stuff, and had a bigger split in this regard than Benintendi:
Facing LHP -- wOBA, xwOBA
Benintendi
Fastballs: .313, .282
Breaking: .220, .233
Bradley
Fastballs: .332, .330
Breaking: .130, .208
I suspect the big gap between wOBA and xwOBA for JBJ on curves is a shift artifact.
I wonder if JDM's tumble at second is going to factor into this? Let's just imagine he can stand there and hit but not really run well. Do you let the problem solve itself and sit him for an extra day of rest on the ankle? At least in game 3?
I had a power outage in the seventh (right as ERod was coming in) and had to listen to the rest of the game on the radio, so I didn't see him, but there was no mention of a limp or anything in his subsequent at bat. Granted he was intentionally walked and then brought home on Nunez's HR, but is his ankle really a concern going forward?
The only concern I would have about JDM is that sometimes ankle sprains flare up a bit overnight. It's not a huge concern at this point, but just something to watch when tonight's starting lineup is twitter'ed to the world.
I didn't think it looked that bad on TV. He rolled the ankle a bit, but not to the point where you cringe watching it, and he didn't react like it was all that serious. I wouldn't be surprised if he's fine, but I guess you never know.
I thought the real hobbling was because he turned them both. The first one when he slipped over the bag and the other when he was regaining his balance. Nothing to suggest either was especially serious, but both at the same time can't be fun.
Yeah, as a guy who's rolled a few ankles in his day, I suspect that he's going to wake up today with at least a little swelling/soreness. However, if it's not severe (which it didn't look to be), I also suspect that he'll be fine once he gets treatment and taped up.
Now that we know how games 1&2 played out, what are we thinking about lineups for game 3? Based on offense and recency bias, it seems that JBJ is the one to sit as all three of Beni, Mookie and JD are hot.
With a Righty on the mound, does BrockHolt get a start? Mitch?
And then there’s the starting pitching: we know Porcello starts G3, but who gets the start in G4? There’s been a lot of talk about starting another lefty in the hopes that Roberts keeps all his LHH mashers on the bench, but will Roberts abandon that course?
With a Righty on the mound, does BrockHolt get a start? Mitch?
And then there’s the starting pitching: we know Porcello starts G3, but who gets the start in G4? There’s been a lot of talk about starting another lefty in the hopes that Roberts keeps all his LHH mashers on the bench, but will Roberts abandon that course?
I think against Rich Hill you have to go with something like this:
Betts
Benintendi
Pearce
JD
Bogaerts
Nunez
Kinsler
Vazquez
Porcello
You could see a double switch (at catcher or Holt for Kinsler) or a straight up pinch hit depending on the situation and match-up. Cora has said he likes Porcello's bat, so that may not happen early even if the Sox put runners on for him.
If they can get out to a lead you could see Holt or JBJ pinch run for JD relatively early, with the Sox trying to get their best defense out there.
I think it's:
Betts
Benintendi
Martinez
Bogaerts
Moreland
Devers
Holt
Leon
Porcello
There's the Leon/Porcello thing, plus...even if Vazquez gets on base (say) once (versus Leon 0), it only matters if he's the lead-off hitter and Porcello can bunt him over. Sorry, I don't see Porcello being a .300 hitter in that situation. Given that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Vazquez put in if only to get a tiny bit more hitting in the lineup so that Buehler maybe walks him to get to Porcello and the lineup turns over. Do you think Vazquez forces that hand more than Leon?
I'm not familiar enough with Buehler to know anything other than he throws hard, which Devers handles better than the slop.
Here's hoping Martinez' ankle rests well, or he'll need to hide in the outfield.
Betts
Benintendi
Martinez
Bogaerts
Moreland
Devers
Holt
Leon
Porcello
There's the Leon/Porcello thing, plus...even if Vazquez gets on base (say) once (versus Leon 0), it only matters if he's the lead-off hitter and Porcello can bunt him over. Sorry, I don't see Porcello being a .300 hitter in that situation. Given that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Vazquez put in if only to get a tiny bit more hitting in the lineup so that Buehler maybe walks him to get to Porcello and the lineup turns over. Do you think Vazquez forces that hand more than Leon?
I'm not familiar enough with Buehler to know anything other than he throws hard, which Devers handles better than the slop.
Here's hoping Martinez' ankle rests well, or he'll need to hide in the outfield.
Exactly how do you hide in the outfield? Put him in left field where he is less likely to play a double into a triple (vs. playing right field) is all I can think of. He got hurt on Tuesday night, right? So if he could play last night, he should be good to go on Friday night, I would hope.
Yep, that's what I meant...pick the least vulnerable outfield spot.
Let's assume he was 100% healthy. Dodger Stadium is symmetrical. A RHP is starting. Throws into 3B from LF are shorter than from RF. On the other hand, he's used to RF and Benintedi's used to Left (assuming Betts plays CF).
That leaves us with one guess: Assuming Martinez starts in LF, who plays CF? Benintendi or Betts?
Benintendi. He's played a lot more CF than RF. At least have one OF playing his regular position.
IMO
I mostly agree here, but in all fairness he DHed last night and I'm curious if there are any concerns after running the bases. I think no decision is made until tomorrow.
Pete AbrahamVerified account @PeteAbe 3h3 hours ago
Cora said Mookie Betts would not start at second base in Game 3. But he did not rule out him playing there at some point in the game.
Cora said Mookie Betts would not start at second base in Game 3. But he did not rule out him playing there at some point in the game.
So the likely lineup for tonight would be JBJ on the bench with JD in left and Benintendi in center? Maybe Holt at second with an eye toward adding a little back to the offense with the pitcher hitting.
And maybe feed and comfort the homeless?
I agree. And I can’t wait to see what Cora does.
Craig Edwards at FG says Beni should sit. I tend to agree. (Actually, truth be known, I think JDM should sit, but Cora's already said that's not gonna happen.)
I'm pretty excited to see what he does with NL rules. Double switches aren't mandatory in the era of the 1 inning reliever, or rocket science in general. But they present an opportunity to alter the lineup mid-game.
LOL - perhaps he only gets to play there again if Cora gets tossed again (aka - "I'm not ruling out the chance of it happening")....
I am on board with sitting JDM for tonight. Give his ankle (s) another day. Maybe bring him in as a late game pinch hitter.
I am warming to Benintendi sitting, with JDM in LF (if he's healthy). Keeps everyone else in their regular spot.
Its a shitty situation. And there are solid reasons for sitting any of them. Short of sitting Mookie, JD, Benintendi and JBJ and playing Pearce in RF, Holt in CF and Swihart in LF, Nunez at 2B, and a C at DH, I'm not too worked up about what Cora does. Not that I dont care, but I'm pretty confident that the coaches have gamed this out as much as reasonably possible.
And that's exactly what's happening, per the game thread.
What I'd like to see is Benintendi PH'ing for Porcello (or maybe Leon) the second time through the lineup (Betts to 2B), with JDM out of the game after his third PA (Betts back to OF).
A pretty creative way to get JD 3 ABs, Benintendi possibly 2 and finish the game with perhaps your best defensive alignment assuming Kinsler goes to 2nd after Mookie returns to the OF. .
Either Mookie Betts is SoSH-stalking me, or I see the future. There are no other explanations. In case it's the latter, I'll start spoiler-ing my posts going forward.
Stand very still.
NL park. So we get to see Rick Porcello hit instead of Benintendi. Awesome. Please use the DH in both leagues. This is ridiculous.
Don't know if this is being discussed anywhere but how do you feel about keeping Eovaldi in the bullpen in LA where he can be available for 2 of the 3 games while starting Eduardo in G4 to keep the Dodgers LHH on the bench and/or utilize him in an "opener" role to really mess with Roberts lineup choices?
I'm pretty certain it won't happen, but if Martinez' ankle is really impacting his hitting & fielding (only the coaches know), perhaps tonight is the time to play with the casino's money and have him available on the bench...giving his body 2 full days (and one 6-hour flight) some time to rest. OTOH, perhaps this is the kind of pain that 2 day's rest won't improve.
Treat him like Sale...available to help put things away in Game 5 if needed, otherwise better rested for a pivotal Game 6.
Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Pierce, Nunez, Holt, Leon, Bradley, P or something like that.
Kinsler, Devers, Martinez, Moreland, Vazquez (Swihart) available.
Pen: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Pomeranz, (Porcello), (Sale)
Not available: Kelly, Eovaldi (you think?), Rodriguez, maybe even Kimbrel.
Going to be an unusual game. Dodgers in with everybody do-or-die, Red Sox perhaps trying to steal one with some bullets in reserve.
Just stay away from a Game 3 scenario at all costs. Don't risk the players (hopefully not) needed on Tuesday in a potentially futile effort Sunday.
If the game is within reach, go for it balls-to-the-wall. If not...move on knowing you need 1 of 2 in Fenway.
Reasons NOT to do this?
1. A hurt Martinez is still better than any alternative and it forces the Dodger's hand
2. Boston weather: Who knows if it'll be 2 days between games? It might be 1975 all over again.
3. Who's to say Kelly or Eovaldi can't pitch? If they can lock it down, lock it.
4. Sale 2 days before a start...he can still throw an inning.
Treat him like Sale...available to help put things away in Game 5 if needed, otherwise better rested for a pivotal Game 6.
Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Pierce, Nunez, Holt, Leon, Bradley, P or something like that.
Kinsler, Devers, Martinez, Moreland, Vazquez (Swihart) available.
Pen: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Pomeranz, (Porcello), (Sale)
Not available: Kelly, Eovaldi (you think?), Rodriguez, maybe even Kimbrel.
Going to be an unusual game. Dodgers in with everybody do-or-die, Red Sox perhaps trying to steal one with some bullets in reserve.
Just stay away from a Game 3 scenario at all costs. Don't risk the players (hopefully not) needed on Tuesday in a potentially futile effort Sunday.
If the game is within reach, go for it balls-to-the-wall. If not...move on knowing you need 1 of 2 in Fenway.
Reasons NOT to do this?
1. A hurt Martinez is still better than any alternative and it forces the Dodger's hand
2. Boston weather: Who knows if it'll be 2 days between games? It might be 1975 all over again.
3. Who's to say Kelly or Eovaldi can't pitch? If they can lock it down, lock it.
4. Sale 2 days before a start...he can still throw an inning.
Don’t get cute and try to ‘steal’ a game, imho. Step on their throats and use every bullet you have.