Life without Brady

[tims4wins]

So assume Brady misses the first 4 games.

Do the Pats draft a QB? Sign a veteran backup? Both? They may well have drafted a QB anyway.

Who are the likely targets for both category?

For draft, I have seen Kevin Hogan (Stanford) and Jake Rudock (Michigan) thrown around as potential names.

For veteran backup, I doubt Hoyer would sign. Who else is out there?

Also can talk about the schedule and the first 4 games and how that might shake out here.

 

[moondog80]

So assume Brady misses the first 4 games.

Do the Pats draft a QB? Sign a veteran backup? Both? They may well have drafted a QB anyone.

Who are the likely targets for both category?

For draft, I have seen Kevin Hogan (Stanford) and Jake Rudock (Michigan) thrown around as potential names.

For veteran backup, I doubt Hoyer would sign. Who else is out there?

Also can talk about the schedule and the first 4 games and how that might shake out here.

Why would Hoyer not sign? Jimmy G has a leg up but it's not like he's a lock to start the first four games. I would think he or anyone else without a starting job already would see this as a great chance to showcase their talents.

 

[tims4wins]

Well it seems like Hoyer wants to be a starter somewhere, although it seems like there really aren't (m)any more options out there for him.

Also, this is Jimmy's 3rd year in NE - if Brady doesn't play I think he is a sure-fire lock to start game 1.

 

[Stitch01]

Money is probably a complication in terms of signing Hoyer. Backup QBs arent super cheap and he's a competent enough backup that signing him as a four game insurance policy is probably cost prohibitive.

It shouldn't really change who they draft, the chances of getting competent QB play out of a low round drafted rookie is fairly slim.

Ryan Lindley and Matt Flynn were in camp last year IIRC. They're terrible but probably the kind of caliber of player the Pats will look to add.

Just beat either Miami or Buffalo, start 1-3, and go from there, everything else is gravy. Hope like hell everyone stays healthy and Brady, who thrives on practice and game reps, gets sharp quickly when he comes back and they can still have a shot at the bye.

 

[Dollar]

Looking at the list of available free agent QBs:

Brian Hoyer QB 30 HOU TBD - - - -
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 33 NYJ TBD - - - -
Johnny Manziel QB 23 CLE TBD - - - -
Bruce Gradkowski QB 33 PIT TBD - - - -
Tarvaris Jackson QB 33 SEA TBD - - - -
Charlie Whitehurst QB 33 IND TBD - - - -
Michael Vick QB 35 PIT TBD - - - -
Josh Johnson QB 29 BUF TBD - - - -
T.J. Yates QB 28 HOU TBD - - - -
Matt Flynn QB 30 NO TBD - - - -
Jimmy Clausen QB 28 BAL TBD - - - -
Josh Freeman QB 28 IND TBD - - - -
Ryan Lindley QB 26 IND TBD - - - -
Brad Sorensen QB 28 SD TBD - - - -

Hoyer seems like the best option. Both Lindley and Flynn were with the Pats during training camp and the preseason last year, so I could see either coming back if needed (Lindley was a disaster last preseason, so I'd prefer Flynn who never actually practiced with the team due to a non-football injury),

Gradkowski looked serviceable at times in his career, but he's 33 now and has only thrown 29 regular season passes since the start of 2011. Yates isn't good, but he was good enough to go 2-0 for Houston last year. And if all else fails, Rohan Davey put up good numbers for the Arena League San Antonio Talons in 2013.

 

[dynomite]

Why would Hoyer not sign? Jimmy G has a leg up but it's not like he's a lock to start the first four games. I would think he or anyone else without a starting job already would see this as a great chance to showcase their talents.

Agreed, I think Hoyer could be a realistic possibility.

Rumors are he met with the Broncos and Jets. If the Broncos make him an offer and he could compete to be the starter there, seems like he should take that deal.

But if he can't get a realistic shot at starting elsewhere, competing for a 4 game showcase with the Patriots is a very strong alternative, in my opinion.

Look at what a season of Patriots starts did for Matt Cassel's career/bank account. Obviously Hoyer now is more of a known quantity than Cassel was after 2008, but I could see it happening for a number of reasons.

 

[dbn]

Unretire, Peyton.

 

[Klostrophobic]

They should be drafting a QB almost every year until they feel they've hit on the Brady successor, but that guy shouldn't matter for weeks 1-4 this coming season. You aren't starting a rookie in the first four weeks unless Jimmy G is straight flaming trash, and even then you're gonna go with a street FA probably unless you've drafted the next Russell Wilson.

I think you just want someone who can come in and not fuck everything up if Garropolo gets injured or proves ineffective. Just sign one of the remaining QB FA: Clausen, Jackson, Gradkowski, Whitehurts, Yates, Flynn, Freeman, Hoyer, Kellen Moore, Lindley, Sorensen. No idea which fits best and is likely to sign; maybe Gradkowski, Flynn, Hoyer or Yates?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Just beat either Miami or Buffalo, start 1-3, and go from there, everything else is gravy. Hope like hell everyone stays healthy and Brady, who thrives on practice and game reps, gets sharp quickly when he comes back and they can still have a shot at the bye.

All three of the home games seem very winnable to me (@AZ admittedly very tough) even with Jimmie G at the helm. I think 2-2 is a very realistic baseline expectation and 3-1 wouldn't surprise me if the offense settles a bit.

 

[jablo1312]

They'll sign someone, but I'm comfortable with Garoppolo starting the 4 games. Unless he's absolute dogshit I can't imagine his floor is lower than Hoyer's, and I'd say his ceiling is a bit higher. More importantly he's already on the roster. Hoyer might want a tryout, but I'd be willing to wager he'd rather take the a chance at being given a chance to play for all 16 games and possibly parlay that into a longer term deal, even if its something like the Charlie Whitehurst deal with the Titans. I'm not sure how the Pats would sign him without some signficant impact to the salary cap, and it's not like they have a ton of room considering they have a (significantly less expensive than normal, but still) rookie class to sign, as well as leaving room for in season additions, which have really become the norm with this team over the past 5 years.

 

[E5 Yaz]

@AZ was going to be tough, even with Brady. Come out of this >/= 2-2, get an angry Brady back on the field and take your chances.

I think you really have to look at cap space when thinking about what QB to pick up. Even a Hoyer would be a significant whack on cap room. Draft a QB and maybe some flotsam like Nick Foles becomes available later into the offseason

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Didn't they bring in Lindley last time when they thought Brady might have a suspension?

How do you manage pre-season between Jimmy and TB, though? That starts to get a bit complicated.

One of the biggest issues here is losing a roster spot for 4 games, which on top of the loss of the draft picks is really yet another way in which the league has affected competitive balance for a bullshit offense. If I were the Seahawks, for example, I'd be kind of pissed about this.

 

[tims4wins]

I thought the roster spot was not lost - like last year when Blount was suspended for the first game

 

[moondog80]

The answer, obviously, is Peyton Manning.

EDIT: Credit to dbn.

 

[jablo1312]

How do you manage pre-season between Jimmy and TB, though? That starts to get a bit complicated.

Brady plays a few series, Garoppolo plays a few, 3rd string plays the rest for the 1st two games. A bit less time for Brady, and a bit more for Jimmy in the 3rd. Sit both for the 4th.

4 extra series in the pre-season isn't going to make or break Garoppolo. No need to get your starter hurt.

 

[Stitch01]

All three of the home games seem very winnable to me (@AZ admittedly very tough) even with Jimmie G at the helm. I think 2-2 is a very realistic baseline expectation and 3-1 wouldn't surprise me if the offense settles a bit.

I wouldn't be that surprised by 0-4 or (sort of) 4-0. I for sure wouldn't bet anything meaningful on 2-2 or better. Sure, if Jimmy G doesn't suck and the Pats are relatively healthy they may be fine, but Jimmy G coming out and absolutely sucking and a couple other injuries on offense and all bets are off (just anecdotally....I bet the Pats last Super Bowl team starts off 0-4 or 1-3 without Brady at QB).

1-3 and a division win and Im happy because at least if its a title contending team and they run good with health they'll have a chance to still finish 12-4 or 11-5 and be in the race for a bye and the suspension wont really hurt that much. Obviously it would be awesome if Jimmy is legit, Pats go 4-0, trade Jimmy for the 1st rounder, big fuccccckkkk youuuuu to everyone else in the NFL, but that's more wishcasting/daydreaming than reality based analysis.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I wouldn't be that surprised by 0-4 or (sort of) 4-0. I for sure wouldn't bet anything meaningful on 2-2 or better. Sure, if Jimmy G doesn't suck and the Pats are relatively healthy they may be fine, but Jimmy G coming out and absolutely sucking and a couple other injuries on offense and all bets are off (just anecdotally....I bet the Pats last Super Bowl team starts off 0-4 or 1-3 without Brady at QB).

1-3 and a division win and Im happy because at least if its a title contending team and they run good with health they'll have a chance to still finish 12-4 or 11-5 and be in the race for a bye and the suspension wont really hurt that much. Obviously it would be awesome if Jimmy is legit, Pats go 4-0, trade Jimmy for the 1st rounder, big fuccccckkkk youuuuu to everyone else in the NFL, but that's more wishcasting/daydreaming than reality based analysis.

Honestly, anything other than 0-4 is fine assuming good health for everybody else. I feel very confident that at the least they'd get a wildcard spot if they start out 1-3. All that matters is that they get into the playoffs with a Brady-led offense and they have a shot to go to the Super Bowl.

 

[Stitch01]

Getting that bye really matters and, to a bit lesser extent, homefield matters. Getting in as a wild card or the 4 seed or whatever with a top team would annoy the fuck out of me, personally, because then this bullshit will have cost legit Super Bowl equity. But that's the essence of what Im getting at, just sign me up for this not being a face melting disaster at this point.

 

[DJnVa]

I mean, I know point spread isn't 100% based on the abilities of the 2 teams, but the Pats are still favored at this point in 3 games. They most assuredly should not be going 0-4 with home games.

 

[Ale Xander]

Pick some scrub in the 6th round, sign whoever the cheapest FA is for 3rd string just to have a veteran's insurance policy. Waive that guy after 5 weeks.

 

[Ale Xander]

I mean, I know point spread isn't 100% based on the abilities of the 2 teams, but the Pats are still favored at this point in 3 games. They most assuredly should not be going 0-4 with home games.

Bovada has the o/u at only 1.5 for those 4 games.

I don't think they'd be favored against Miami, even at home. Buffalo is your only easy win, no?

 

[wilked]

Just looking two years backward, at their first 4 games... What would the swing have been with Jimmy instead (I know, it's a trivial analysis...)

I would say 2014 record goes from 4-0 to 2-2, and I would say 2014 record goes from 2-2 to 2-2.

This has a good chance of costing them a game or two, I think, when the final tally is in

2015:

1. Patriots 28 Steelers 21
2. Patriots 40 Bills 32
3. Patriots 51 Jaguars 17
5. (Week 4 bye week) Patriots 30 Cowboys 6


2014:

1. Patriots 20 Dolphins 33
2. Patriots 30 Vikings 7
3. Patriots 16 Raiders 9
4. Patriots 14 Chiefs 41

 

[Stitch01]

That's the right over/under, either 1.5 or 2.0 with extra juice on betting the under.

mean, I know point spread isn't 100% based on the abilities of the 2 teams, but the Pats are still favored at this point in 3 games. They most assuredly should not be going 0-4 with home games.

Well the right expectation certainly isn't 0-4. Its in the range of possible outcomes now though IMHO.

would say 2014 record goes from 4-0 to 2-2, and I would say 2014 record goes from 2-2 to 2-2.

Its just anecdotal and not predictive, but I think they legitimately might have started 0-4 in 2014 with a bad quarterback. That team was a hot mess the first four weeks, not sure they were overcoming bad QB play. (Is Jimmy G bad? Who knows. The long-term record of mid/high round QBs is terrible and he doesn't have much pedigree, Pats record of developing backups is pretty good over an uber small sample....so who knows).

 

[RedOctober3829]

I mean, I know point spread isn't 100% based on the abilities of the 2 teams, but the Pats are still favored at this point in 3 games. They most assuredly should not be going 0-4 with home games.

In my estimation, the Arizona game turned from a 50/50 shot to a decided disadvantage. Buffalo and Miami at home should still be wins. The lynchpin in this IMO is Houston. That one can go either way.

 

[Shelterdog]

Backup QBs with any skills whatsoever are exceptionally expensive. I think they draft (or sign as a priority FA) a Hogan/Coker/Kessler-a good character guy who has played a lot of big time college ball but is available after round 3 to carry the clipboard and be a serviceable backup to Jimmy G.

 

[Ale Xander]

If they can get Kessler in a late round that would be great, but I think he goes earlier than expected and I would even assume he would beat out Garoppolo in a fair fight.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Thank god they have the Browns in Week 5. After 4+ weeks away from the team with no contact, he'll need a preseason game to get him ready.

 

[Jnai]

Edelman at QB. Boom.

 

[Super Nomario]

Backup QBs with any skills whatsoever are exceptionally expensive. I think they draft (or sign as a priority FA) a Hogan/Coker/Kessler-a good character guy who has played a lot of big time college ball but is available after round 3 to carry the clipboard and be a serviceable backup to Jimmy G.

This makes a lot of sense to me. They tend to draft a QB every 2-3 years anyway (or sign a UDFA like Hoyer or Matt Gutierrez). They'll have an extra roster spot during Brady's suspension and they can potentially sneak a guy to the PS after that. Presumably Garoppolo is gone after 2017, and if he shows something in four games next year they can potentially get something for him in the offseason and then use whichever guy they draft as backup in his second year. There are a lot of interesting late-round QB prospects in this draft, too - in addition to the guys you mention, guys like Rudock and Driskel and Woodrum and Doughty.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

Troll the Jets and sign Fitzpatrick

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Some of the predictions seem a little ridiculous to me.

They're probably going to get beat, and probably badly, at the Cardinals.
But expecting them to lose to Miami at home? Miami isn't a bad team - they're a terrible team. I'd expect the Patriots to beat Miami at home with Edelman starting at QB.

The Patriots are a team with a good defense, and some good talent on offense. Losing Brady for 4 games is bad, but they'll be well prepared, well coached, and they won't make many mistakes - and thats not something you can say for Houston, Miami, and Buffalo.

 

[DJnVa]

They're probably going to get beat, and probably badly, at the Cardinals.

Pats can play a little defense...

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Just watched all of JG's pre-season and the NFL highlight YouTube clips. Here are some quick observations:

• Encouraging to see how much calmer JG looks in the pocket from one year to the next.
• A few escapes from what looked like sure sacks. His lower body strength is surprising.
• Makes terrific throws on the out-routes -- accurate and fast.
• Makes great arching sideline "go" routes, mostly thrown to Tyms. Wish we had him back just to play with JG.
• Tries to fit into really tight windows on cross-routes between the hash marks. Although only 2 (I think) INTs were recorded, there were a few more that were really close.
• Having Lewis healthy would be enormous, not just as a runner but as an escape valve/checkdown.

I felt much better after looking at the clips. Besides Palmer, not sure if NE holds a disadvantage over Osweiler, Tannehill, and certainly Tyrod Taylor.

Gut says Pats will come out 2-2. 3-1 would be terrific. 1-3 is possible, but not likely. I bet the Vegas over/under confirms it.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Pats can play a little defense...

So can the Cardinals.

On the negative, its going to be JG's first real NFL game. On the positive, I'm guessing the offense is going to run significantly differently than it would under Brady, and the Cardinals are going to have no way to specifically gameplan for it.

 

[Captaincoop]

Anything is possible, but 0-4 seems really, really unlikely. Worrying about that is basically saying that you think this Super Bowl contender becomes like a 2-14 or 3-13 team when you remove one player. Tom Brady is great. He's not that great. The 2008 team won 11 games replacing him with Matt Cassell. That alone makes me feel confident that they're no worse than 2-2 when TB comes back, and better than that would not surprise me.

 

[BaseballJones]

The only way I can really manage this is to pretend that he got dinged up in the preseason but will be back in week 5. Except that he really won't be hurt so I won't have to worry about whether they're rushing him back.

Go 2-2 with JG. Go 10-2 with Brady. #2 seed (maybe #1). Go to the Super Bowl. Take your chances with the NFC opponent.

 

[DJnVa]

So can the Cardinals.

On the negative, its going to be JG's first real NFL game. On the positive, I'm guessing the offense is going to run significantly differently than it would under Brady, and the Cardinals are going to have no way to specifically gameplan for it.

That's fine, but even if the Pats offense struggles some I don't see AZ scoring so many that it's the blowout the post seemed to suggest. If I misread that, apologies.

 

[Stitch01]

Just watched all of JG's pre-season and the NFL highlight YouTube clips. Here are some quick observations:

• Encouraging to see how much calmer JG looks in the pocket from one year to the next.
• A few escapes from what looked like sure sacks. His lower body strength is surprising.
• Makes terrific throws on the out-routes -- accurate and fast.
• Makes great arching sideline "go" routes, mostly thrown to Tyms. Wish we had him back just to play with JG.
• Tries to fit into really tight windows on cross-routes between the hash marks. Although only 2 (I think) INTs were recorded, there were a few more that were really close.
• Having Lewis healthy would be enormous, not just as a runner but as an escape valve/checkdown.

I felt much better after looking at the clips. Besides Palmer, not sure if NE holds a disadvantage over Osweiler, Tannehill, and certainly Tyrod Taylor.

Gut says Pats will come out 2-2. 3-1 would be terrific. 1-3 is possible, but not likely. I bet the Vegas over/under confirms it.

The over under is 1.5. Pats are now +4.5/-4.5/-3/-3 first four games. Basically grade the same as Houston and Buffalo right now.

 

[soxfan121]

There are a lot of interesting late-round QB prospects in this draft, too - in addition to the guys you mention, guys like Rudock and Driskel and Woodrum and Doughty.

Doughty. He's like a veteran already. And he's likely to end up a UDFA because of his gray hair.

 

[Bongorific]

The over under is 1.5. Pats are now +4.5/-4.5/-3/-3 first four games. Basically grade the same as Houston and Buffalo right now.

Free cash money hommie

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Just watched all of JG's pre-season and the NFL highlight YouTube clips. Here are some quick observations:

• Encouraging to see how much calmer JG looks in the pocket from one year to the next.
• A few escapes from what looked like sure sacks. His lower body strength is surprising.
• Makes terrific throws on the out-routes -- accurate and fast.
• Makes great arching sideline "go" routes, mostly thrown to Tyms. Wish we had him back just to play with JG.
• Tries to fit into really tight windows on cross-routes between the hash marks. Although only 2 (I think) INTs were recorded, there were a few more that were really close.
• Having Lewis healthy would be enormous, not just as a runner but as an escape valve/checkdown.

I felt much better after looking at the clips. Besides Palmer, not sure if NE holds a disadvantage over Osweiler, Tannehill, and certainly Tyrod Taylor.

Gut says Pats will come out 2-2. 3-1 would be terrific. 1-3 is possible, but not likely. I bet the Vegas over/under confirms it.

You might also like the piece @mascho put together last season in anticipation of the suspension then, breaking down Garappolo on a trait by trait basis. Accuracy and precision is a clear strength for Garappolo, he displays good footwork, the ability to read and climb the pocket as well. As expected, decision making is mixed, but overall he displays good awareness.

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/teams-nfl/afc-east/new-england-patriots/2015/08/12/jimmy-garoppolo-a-trait-based-approach/

 

[mauf]

That's the right over/under, either 1.5 or 2.0 with extra juice on betting the under.

Seems like Vegas is saying the suspension will cost the Pats one win.

It's a tough 4-game stretch -- Arizona is elite, Houston is probably near-elite with their improved QB situation, and divisional games are never gimmes. Even with Brady, I'd set the O/U at 2.5, or maybe 3.0 with worse odds on the under.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Seems like Vegas is saying the suspension will cost the Pats one win.

It's a tough 4-game stretch -- Arizona is elite, Houston is probably near-elite with their improved QB situation, and divisional games are never gimmes. Even with Brady, I'd set the O/U at 2.5, or maybe 3.0 with worse odds on the under.

Just to add another take, Barnwell says 0.5 win give-or-take (link)

We can't predict the future, of course, but most evidence indicates that the dropoff from Brady to backup Jimmy Garoppolo won't be quite the doomsday scenario one could have in mind. When Brady was due to be suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season, I looked into this very topic for Grantland and found that the difference between four games of Brady and four games of Garoppolo was a little more than a half-win, and the Vegas over/under line for the Patriots' full-season win total moved by a similar amount.

He correctly says Hoyer and others are not in the picture due to cap space (except perhaps Foles, ugh). Spend a late round pick on a QB just as insurance instead of wasting cap space, I say.

 

[DJnVa]

Seems like Vegas is saying the suspension will cost the Pats one win.

It's a tough 4-game stretch -- Arizona is elite, Houston is probably near-elite with their improved QB situation, and divisional games are never gimmes. Even with Brady, I'd set the O/U at 2.5, or maybe 3.0 with worse odds on the under.

Houston is near-elite? Hoyer had a higher QB rating (old fashioned and ESPN's abomination) than Osweiler last season.

 

[Klostrophobic]

Houston is near-elite? Hoyer had a higher QB rating (old fashioned and ESPN's abomination) than Osweiler last season.

LOL people in this thread are waaaay overrating the Texans. Especially as they'll be traveling to Foxboro on a short week (TNF game). Their offense is chuck it up to Hopkins and come back and do the same again. Belichick will shut that down easily, just as he did last season. Miami is a dumpster fire waiting to implode and also the Patriots are at home. Arizona will be a likely loss and the Bills are a challenge with Taylor at QB, but it wouldn't be surprising to win all four matches.

 

[wilked]

Even if they were 75% likely to win each game (they are not) the odds of sweeping the 4 are 30%. Put a more realistic 50% on each game and the odds of sweeping are 6%

I would be very surprised if they end up 4-0 and anyone saying otherwise is either vastly over rating Jimmy or under rating Brady

 

[Dollar]

He correctly says Hoyer and others are not in the picture due to cap space (except perhaps Foles, ugh). Spend a late round pick on a QB just as insurance instead of wasting cap space, I say.

Looking for a veteran quarterback without taking up much cap space? Gentleman, we just may have our answer.

JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft who hasn't played since 2009, said he will "play for free" if a team gives him another chance.

"God makes things happen for a reason," Russell said in a video for Sports Illustrated. "Who's to say? You might see me back. You never know, man. You never know. ... Whatever it is -- I can be a water boy and work my way into a scout team. It doesn't matter. I'll go play for free."

"I am willing to lead the scout team for free for one year just to get experience in your system," Russell wrote in a letter to Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, according to Sports Illustrated.

"I know that my name does not carry much weight in the NFL right now, but I am more than the image that others have bestowed on me," Russell wrote. "I've been labeled as a bust, I have been labeled as lazy and I have been the targets of many insults by the media. The blame for any negative press that I've received rested squarely on my shoulders. ... My tribulations have humbled me. I am a better man because of my struggles, and I simply desire an opportunity [to] redeem myself. I do not want my legacy to be a trail of unfulfilled dreams and missed opportunities."

http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/15384038/jamarcus-russell-says-play-free-just-wants-another-chance

 

[DJnVa]

I would be very surprised if they end up 4-0 and anyone saying otherwise is either vastly over rating Jimmy or under rating Brady

You realize that most of the back and forth isn't over a lot of folks saying they'll go 4-0.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I felt much better after looking at the clips. Besides Palmer, not sure if NE holds a disadvantage over Osweiler, Tannehill, and certainly Tyrod Taylor.

The Tyrod Taylor that finished ninth in ANY/A and added 41 yards a game on the ground? You do realize the odds are he's much better than Jimmy Garoppolo, right?

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah if forced to guess (and guess is the right word, we don't know much about Jimmy G), Id guess Jimmy G is the worst starting quarterback on the field each of the first four games.