Reverend said:
One question: how did you work out the "nine times as likely to catch the ball" part? I was trying to work out the percentages and then compare them but figured it would be easier to just ask.
2) It's caught and Nava, having played to tag, advances, RE of runner on third and 2 out is .373, a .031 increase.
4) It lands and Nava, having played to tag, can only advance one base. RE of runner on second and third with one out is 1.438, a .276 decrease
It's .276 divided by .031 = 8.90, or roughly 9x.