Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread

[SouthernBoSox]

He gave up 5 runs and 3 bombs in his last 4 innings. This isn't reactionary. This was an awful decision. John Farrell has let his starting pitches throw 110+ pitches with regularity. Felix Doubront had thrown 93 pitches and was to face a lefty. He has also retired what? 15 hitters in a row? This wasn't a bad, second guessing decision. This was a horrible horrible decision even if Bailey shuts them down 1-2-3.

 

[Plympton91]

I can see criticizing Farrell for making the switch to Bailey based on Doubront being at only 93 pitches, but Doubront's problems aren't usually related to fatigue.  He has problems based on the number of times through the order more than the number of pitches, so once he's into the 3rd time through, removing him at any time is perfectly defensible.  It is especially defensible in a 1 run game.  Too bad that Bailey sucks right now, and has been thoroughly mediocre--at least by the standards of a closer for a playoff team--for his entire career outside of Oakland Coliseum.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't think you can really argue that his problem is being seen too many times by a lineup.  If that was the case, you'd probably see his swing and miss rate drop as the game went on, and that hasn't been the case throughout his career.  This graph from brooksbaseball.net doesn't show a steady or even any real decline in whiff rate in the 5th, 6th or 7th innings, when a team would be seeing him for the third time in a game.  The only exception is in his change up.
 

I expected to see a higher walk rate in the 5th inning on, but that actually looks fairly stable.  It just seems that batters start hitting him much harder at that point.  There's also no real drop in velocity or in the movement on his pitches, which we might expect to see if he was fatiguing.
 
I'm not sure exactly what's caused his poor results after the 4th inning, but the fact that he's generating swings and misses at about the same rate makes me think that it has more to do with him tiring, despite the fact that his walk rate doesn't go up.  In fact, it might be the opposite, as he seems to leave more pitches over the plate as the game goes on... at least until the 7th inning.
 

Maybe he grows tired and loses his confidence in his ability to hit the corners or come in just off the corners and starts leaving more pitches out over the plate.  This would explain why his whiff rate doesn't suffer but his slash line against goes through the roof.  Batters still miss his pitches as often, but when they don't, they're getting better pitches to hit.
 
Anyway, this is a bit of a tangent and this ended up be a long road to saying I get why Farrell would pull him in a close game at 93 pitches.  He has a history of the wheels coming off very quickly and while Bailey has struggled, he was taking a risk either way.  I don't think it was a particularly good call, but I don't think it was an epically bad one, either.  I probably would have let him come out for the 9th and had Bailey ready to go at the first sign of trouble, but I can understand wanting to get Doubront out of there on a good note to build some confidence.

 

[soxhop411]

Anyway, this is a bit of a tangent and this ended up be a long road to saying I get why Farrell would pull him in a close game at 93 pitches.  He has a history of the wheels coming off very quickly and while Bailey has struggled, he was taking a risk either way.  I don't think it was a particularly good call, but I don't think it was an epically bad one, either.  I probably would have let him come out for the 9th and had Bailey ready to go at the first sign of trouble, but I can understand wanting to get Doubront out of there on a good note to build some confidence.

I agree with this, If he has indeed FINALLY figured "IT" out that would be amazing, and like you said I think its better that he went out on a high note (8IP 0er) to build on that confindence then suddenly lose it in the 9th (becuase like you said he can suddenly "lose" it at any time) its also the first time he has went 7+ innings AT ANY LEVEL.

 

[LesterFan]

I would have at least let Doubront face Kelly Johnson, who is a far worse hitter vs lefties. All 11 of his home runs this year have come vs RHP and his OPS vs lefties is over 100 points lower compared to righties. After that, you bring in Bailey to face Desmond Jennings. Just makes more sense matchup wise.

 

[TheoShmeo]

If Doubront can't pitch the 9th when he's retired 17 in a row, is throwing only 11-13 balls in every inning, is at only 93 pitches and has only given up three hits through eight, then when can he? 
 
I sort of get wanting to get Bailey a save in a tight circumstance as a way to jump start him, and I get the "Bailey is our closer now" mentality that JF expressed in the post-game interview, but few situations are more geared to giving any starter the chance to finish a complete game shut out.  More to the point, given where Felix was in that game and Bailey has been over his last several outings, who was more likely to close that game out unscathed? 
 
If it all works out, Doobie gets his win and Bailey gets a nice boost.  But that doesn't justify the move.

 

[joe dokes]

If Doubront can't pitch the 9th when he's retired 17 in a row, is throwing only 11-13 balls in every inning, is at only 93 pitches and has only given up three hits through eight, then when can he? 
 
I sort of get wanting to get Bailey a save in a tight circumstance as a way to jump start him, and I get the "Bailey is our closer now" mentality that JF expressed in the post-game interview, but few situations are more geared to giving any starter the chance to finish a complete game shut out.  More to the point, given where Felix was in that game and Bailey has been over his last several outings, who was more likely to close that game out unscathed? 
 
If it all works out, Doobie gets his win and Bailey gets a nice boost.  But that doesn't justify the move.

 
 There was no reason to pull Doubront. In EVERY other situation except the ninth inning Closer™ in a Save Situation™ a manager pulls a pitcher for a reason. L-R matchups, faltering pitcher, etc. Except the ninth.
 "Hot streaks" for hitters may be illusory, such that a .125 hitter who is 3 for 4 tonight is nothing more than a .140 hitter. But a starter who is *on* is a different animal. Low pitch count, steady dominance, no stressed innings, no platoon advantage (at least not the for the first hitter).

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

If Doubront can't pitch the 9th when he's retired 17 in a row, is throwing only 11-13 balls in every inning, is at only 93 pitches and has only given up three hits through eight, then when can he? 

 
When he's got a 4+ run lead. If it was not a save situation, I think he'd have been left in to go for a complete game shut-out.
 
(Not saying I agree with it, but plenty of managers work that way.)

 

[HillysLastWalk]

Jeesh, some Mod went Lock happy on pretty much every thread on the main board.  I was specifically looking at the Win Prediction thread, being that we are at the half-way point.
 
Anyhow,
 
48 - 33 -- halfway point.  They have the best record and best run differential (+81) in the AL.

To reach:
 
74 wins: 26 - 55 (0.321)
80 wins: 32 - 49 (0.395)
88 wins: 40 - 41 (0.494)
 
Is John Farrell the favorite, so far, for MOY?
 
Playing slightly below .500 gets the Sox 88 wins.  With any type of bullpen luck (slash the blown saves in half, for example), this team would be a juggernaut and on pace for over 100 wins.  The pessimistic predictions at the beginning of the season have been pretty much negated.  To give context, Houston is playing at a .380 clip and Miami is playing at a .351 clip.  The only way this team is under .500 at the end of the year is if the 25 man roster retires.  Tomorrow.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Is John Farrell the favorite, so far, for MOY?
 
I would have to say he is.  Only other guy seeming to outperform expectations by a decent amount could be Melvin in Oakland.  Given the fact that the A's made the palyoffs last year and the Sox were in last place I have to believe Farrell gets the nod.  But if they only go .500 the rest of the way that may change.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

15-10 so far in June (3 games to go), which we knew was going to be HELL MONTH, with 2 vs. NYY and COL, 3 against TEX and LAA, 6 against Tampa, and 4 each against BAL, TOR and Detroit.  They take even just 1 of the remaining 3 against the Jays, and finish 16-12 with that schedule, you've got to be happy.

 

[pokey_reese]

15-10 so far in June (3 games to go), which we knew was going to be HELL MONTH, with 2 vs. NYY and COL, 3 against TEX and LAA, 6 against Tampa, and 4 each against BAL, TOR and Detroit.  They take even just 1 of the remaining 3 against the Jays, and finish 16-12 with that schedule, you've got to be happy.

Especially considering that this "HELL MONTH" follows a May in which the team played .500 baseball.  They had a bit of a lull then, but turned it back on to play well during the time when it would have been most understandable for them to struggle, which is nice to see.  Gives you hope for the team in a short series in the post-season against other strong teams, considering that the chances are good that we played our first round opponent (knock on wood) this month.

 

[OttoC]

Especially considering that this "HELL MONTH" follows a May in which the team played .500 baseball.  They had a bit of a lull then, but turned it back on to play well during the time when it would have been most understandable for them to struggle, which is nice to see.  Gives you hope for the team in a short series in the post-season against other strong teams, considering that the chances are good that we played our first round opponent (knock on wood) this month.

 
Actually, the team played .500-ball (25 and 25) from May 3 through June 25.

 

[Rasputin]

Is John Farrell the favorite, so far, for MOY?
 
I would have to say he is.  Only other guy seeming to outperform expectations by a decent amount could be Melvin in Oakland.  Given the fact that the A's made the palyoffs last year and the Sox were in last place I have to believe Farrell gets the nod.  But if they only go .500 the rest of the way that may change.

 
I suppose he probably is, but most of the reasons don't really have much to do with his managing. At least, they don't have to do with things that any competent manager wouldn't do. 
 

15-10 so far in June (3 games to go), which we knew was going to be HELL MONTH, with 2 vs. NYY and COL, 3 against TEX and LAA, 6 against Tampa, and 4 each against BAL, TOR and Detroit.  They take even just 1 of the remaining 3 against the Jays, and finish 16-12 with that schedule, you've got to be happy.

 
Before this month started, I said that if the Sox were in first place at the end of the month, they'd be the favorites to win the division. Well there's three games left and a three and a half game lead. 
 
It's really shaping up to be a massively entertaining Summer.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I had completely forgotten the Sox were 42-39 at the halfway point last year. While it should be an entertaining summer, a lot can happen.

 

[Rasputin]

I had completely forgotten the Sox were 42-39 at the halfway point last year. While it should be an entertaining summer, a lot can happen.

 
Of course it can. I rather suspect, though, that we won't be trading half the roster.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Definitely should have had Nieves, or himself, come out to talk to Workman, and tell him to be very careful with Donaldson, or walk him. Also in retrospect of course, he should have pulled Workman. Donaldson's the A's best hitter, by far. Two run lead and a nice job by Workman, gone. Also, it was rough seeing Lavarnway go down, righty on righty, so easily twice late in the game, but I guess there's no third catcher if he PH Salty and then Salty got hurt. If Pedey's the 3rd catcher, forget it, he's much too valuable. 

 

[Plympton91]

Agreed, Workman looked to be on fumes and Sprowl's post in the other thread proves it. Needed to stall in order to get Breslow ready and in the game for Donaldson.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Definitely should have had Nieves, or himself, come out to talk to Workman, and tell him to be very careful with Donaldson, or walk him. Also in retrospect of course, he should have pulled Workman. Donaldson's the A's best hitter, by far. Two run lead and a nice job by Workman, gone. Also, it was rough seeing Lavarnway go down, righty on righty, so easily twice late in the game, but I guess there's no third catcher if he PH Salty and then Salty got hurt. If Pedey's the 3rd catcher, forget it, he's much too valuable. 

 
If Pedroia is the emergency catcher, they need a new emergency catcher. This team has to have better contingency plans than that, right?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If Pedroia is the emergency catcher, they need a new emergency catcher. This team has to have better contingency plans than that, right?

 
Pretty sure Gomes is the "emergency" catcher now, though with him ejected, he wouldn't have been an option today.  Also, Brandon Snyder was drafted as a catcher, so I imagine he's higher on the catcher depth chart than Pedroia.  Though had the game gone on and he'd been needed behind the plate, they'd have lost the DH spot.

 

[Byrdbrain]

If Pedroia is the emergency catcher, they need a new emergency catcher. This team has to have better contingency plans than that, right?

I believe Gomes is the emergency catcher.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Snyder
 
 

Released by the Rangers on March 27, Snyder was hitting .276 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs for Pawtucket, where he landed after the Red Sox rescued his career. He was hitting only .212 in June, but he offered a player who could play first base, third base, and left field.

 
He also serves as an emergency catcher, no small benefit to a team that has lost David Ross to a concussion. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the No. 1 catcher, but Ryan Lavarnway is No. 2 mostly by default.
 

 

[Van Everyman]

By default? Has Lavarnway been so terrible?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

No, because he's the only other catcher on the Major League roster.

 

[Greg29fan]

Farrell had a brutal last two innings tonight.
 
First was pinch running Nava instead of Iglesias, which turned into a horror show multiplied by incompetence by the home plate umpire.  There was also a chance to pinch-hit for Snyder, probably with Carp.
 
Then in the ninth Ellsbury gets on and Victorino starts bunting instead of letting Ellsbury, the leading base-stealer in the league, take a shot to get the base on his own and then maybe bunting him over to third.  Victorino pops out, Pedroia grounds out (after Ells does steal 2nd, easily), they walk Ortiz (and then Iglesias pinch runs for Ortiz right away) and Napoli comes up.  Then a wild pitch puts Ells on 3rd, and if he had been there after a steal/sac bunt, the game is tied.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Farrell had a brutal last two innings tonight.
 
First was pinch running Nava instead of Iglesias, which turned into a horror show multiplied by incompetence by the home plate umpire.  There was also a chance to pinch-hit for Snyder, probably with Carp.
 
Then in the ninth Ellsbury gets on and Victorino starts bunting instead of letting Ellsbury, the leading base-stealer in the league, take a shot to get the base on his own and then maybe bunting him over to third.  Victorino pops out, Pedroia grounds out, they walk Ortiz (and then Iglesias pinch runs for Ortiz right away) and Napoli comes up.  Then a wild pitch puts Ells on 3rd, and if he had been there after a steal/sac bunt, the game is tied.

He got thrown out in the 8th so only the Nava decision was Farrell, it was fine. Nava should have scored easily, as should any player in baseball without the surname Molina.

 

[soxhop411]

Farrell had a brutal last two innings tonight.

First was pinch running Nava instead of Iglesias, which turned into a horror show multiplied by incompetence by the home plate umpire. There was also a chance to pinch-hit for Snyder, probably with Carp.

Then in the ninth Ellsbury gets on and Victorino starts bunting instead of letting Ellsbury, the leading base-stealer in the league, take a shot to get the base on his own and then maybe bunting him over to third. Victorino pops out, Pedroia grounds out (after Ells does steal 2nd, easily), they walk Ortiz (and then Iglesias pinch runs for Ortiz right away) and Napoli comes up. Then a wild pitch puts Ells on 3rd, and if he had been there after a steal/sac bunt, the game is tied.


Why are you blaming the 9th on JF when he was ejected in the 8th. That doesn't seem fair

 

[smastroyin]

I hate this kind of second-guessing, but we have witnessed for three seasons that Nava is a bad baserunner.  He just has no feel for it.  As well, if you use Iggy as a pinch runner you still have Nava as a potential pinch hitter later.  It's a bad use of resources on top of a bad choice.  Also, if you already have Iggy in the game, you can pinch hit for Snyder without making another double swap.  So Iggy in for Lavarnway and to 3B.  Carp in for Snyder then replaced by Salty at C.  
 
Farrell was in the clubhouse for the ninth, but I think he is the one that has given Victorino the bunting green light.  
 
Ultimately, though, while I don't like the tactical decisions, this crap is on the players (and the ump).  Not just the scoring on the double, but Victorino bunting every pitch thrown to him instead of at least taking one damn pitch to give Ellsbury a chance.   

 

[Plympton91]

Have to agree that it was very strange to run Nava instead of Iglesias, and any night that Carp doesn't get an at bat is a bad night.

 

[Noah]

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/29537/ump-admits-he-missed-call-at-plate
 

Asked by pool reporter Ken Powtak of the Associated Press what he saw on the play, Meals responded, "What I saw was: Molina blocked the plate and Nava's foot lifted. But in the replays, you could clearly see Nava's foot got under for a split second and then lifted, so I was wrong on my decision. From the angle I had, I did not see his foot get under Molina's shin guard."

 

[Rasputin]

He got thrown out in the 8th so only the Nava decision was Farrell, it was fine. Nava should have scored easily, as should any player in baseball without the surname Molina.

 
 

Why are you blaming the 9th on JF when he was ejected in the 8th. That doesn't seem fair

 
What the hell?
 
Are we somehow living in a world where the manager stops managing just because he got thrown out?
 
Pinch running with Nava instead of Iggy was odd, but I can understand the desire to give people a complete day off when you give them a day off.
 
Bunting instead of stealing was pretty dumb, imo, 

 

[soxhop411]

What the hell?

Are we somehow living in a world where the manager stops managing just because he got thrown out?

Pinch running with Nava instead of Iggy was odd, but I can understand the desire to give people a complete day off when you give them a day off.

Bunting instead of stealing was pretty dumb, imo,

If the bunt was called from the dugout (and he was not bunting on his own) it would have come from the bench coach given we do not know if JF would have called for the bunt in that situation if he was not ejected (9th inning)

 

[bosockboy]

Not pinch hitting Carp is a puzzler....hopefully Farrell calls tonight a lesson learned on Nava's baserunning.

 

[JimBoSox9]

I don't like the decision to run Nava. That said, realistically out of all the possible outcomes of the Snyder AB, there's only a handful where Iggy scores and Nava doesn't. It wasn't the highest-percentage play but it didn't need to be the wrong one until Nava hung him out to dry. Twice. Once by being a bonehead and once by having lead in his pants. That was a tough angle for a read, too. There was just enough shit luck involved that I'm inclined to give them both a pass by the slimmest of margins. It was neither's finest moment.

Oh, and speaking of shit, I wonder if the ump initially thought it was a force play at home. Swinging around to the right is what you do when the catcher is stretching, not blocking.

 

[Rasputin]

If the bunt was called from the dugout (and he was not bunting on his own) it would have come from the bench coach given we do not know if JF would have called for the bunt in that situation if he was not ejected (9th inning)

 
I don't understand why you think Farrell would stop managing the game just because he was ejected. Managers have been managing from the runway and/or the clubhouse for, I'm guessing, at least a hundred years.

 

[drbretto]

I understand the Nava blame for not scoring on the previous play, but it took a super-quick release, a perfect laser-beam throw and a bad call by the ump to get him out. 
 
As for not pinch running Iggy, which seems like an obvious complaint, if he was supposed to have the whole day off, does that include all of the pre-game warm-ups? I don't think I want someone jumping cold off the bench running their asses off and blowing a hammy.

 

[smastroyin]

Iggy pinch ran for Ortiz in the ninth.  Granted, Farrell was in the clubhouse, but I would think all the coaches would know that he was supposed to have a day off if he was really supposed to have a day off.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

I don't think Farrell's reasoning was just to give him a day off, according to Abraham (re: 8th inning):
 
 

John Farrell said he wanted to save Iglesias for a possible double switch later in the game.

 

[smastroyin]

And see, that's my thing.  He had the double switch right in front of him in the 8th.  Pinch run Iggy and pinch hit for Snyder.  Barring a stupid double play, Snyder's at bat was going to come in the 8th.  Then you have your defensive replacement for the ninth, as well. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

And see, that's my thing.  He had the double switch right in front of him in the 8th.  Pinch run Iggy and pinch hit for Snyder.  Barring a stupid double play, Snyder's at bat was going to come in the 8th.  Then you have your defensive replacement for the ninth, as well. 

 
No, Farrell explained that he didn't want Iglesias hitting in that slot behind Gomes. He said something like he wanted to preserve the option of having a left-handed hitter bat in that slot in the 9th.

 

[smastroyin]

 
No, Farrell explained that he didn't want Iglesias hitting in that slot behind Gomes. He said something like he wanted to preserve the option of having a left-handed hitter bat in that slot in the 9th.

 
I realize you are just echoing what Farrell said, but that makes not a lot of sense to me.  The odds of that position coming up again in the ninth are remote.  You have one out in the 8th innning of a home game with the tying run on second base.  It will require 9 AB to get back to that position in the order.  You have 4 outs (the 5th out ends the game), and 2 runs will also end the game (assuming your pitching holds the top of the ninth).  In order to get that position up again, you need to have 3 additional baserunners while getting at most one run and no double play.  As well, if you don't use Nava in the 8th you can have him (or Carp) hit for Gomes.  Also, you don't need to do the double switch I describe, you can just pinch run Iglesias and then put Salty in that lineup spot and let Snyder hit since that's what you did anyway.
 
Then again, in terms of pinch running I think the difference between Iglesias and Nava is greater than the difference between Nava and Lavarnway.  I have to assume the Red Sox have a much different opinion in order for this sequence and reasoning to make any sense.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Yes, in my preferred alternate universe, Iglesias as PR scores.
 
The subtext for Farrell here is he needs another middle infielder on the MLB roster.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Yes, in my preferred alternate universe, Iglesias as PR scores.
 
The subtext for Farrell here is he needs another middle infielder on the MLB roster.

Preferably, a guy that can run. Excluding pitchers, and I have the bad memory of Clay getting hurt running in SF back when, if Drew and Iggy are starting, this team has no bench players that run well. (Joe Morganing this for now with Snyder). Compounding that is that we have so many starters that are slow.
 
Starters
 
Salty...slow
Nap...slow
Pedey
Iggy
Drew
Gomes...slow (or would you call him average?)
Ells
Vic
Papi...slow
 
Bench
 
Lavarnway
Snyder
Carp
Nava
 
Or, start Nava instead of Gomes, same difference. 
 
Should JBJ be up with the big team before September expansion, and with whose attendant demotion? I know he needs everyday hitting, etc., experience, but we have a serious contender here. What is the higher priority?

 

[Niastri]

I think the team needs to be in Go For It Now mode in that they will bring up any player in the minors that they think can help them win.  I am, on the other hand, hoping that they are not in GFIN mode if it means trading away a bunch of prospects for a guy who may or may not be better than what we already have down on the farm.
 
I hope that means Bogaerts or Middlebrooks or JBJ sometime immediately after the trading deadline to give a spark to the team.

 

[Plympton91]

A manager should get some credit when the team wins a 15 inning game.  Decisions to let Uehara pitch 2 innings, and get Thornton out after his 1 near disaster are not "no brainers."   He also did not, as Robby Thompson did, remove his cleanup hitter for Brandon Ryan.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

A manager should get some credit when the team wins a 15 inning game.  Decisions to let Uehara pitch 2 innings, and get Thornton out after his 1 near disaster are not "no brainers."   He also did not, as Robby Thompson did, remove his cleanup hitter for Brandon Ryan.

 
Uehara only throwing 8 or 9 pitches in his first inning helped, so did the fact that he had guys named Britton, Beato, and de la Torre behind Koji, Tazawa, Thornton, and Breslow, and he probably didn't want to have to use any of them in a tie game.
 
Bringing in Nava, who can't seem to swing a bat, wasn't a wicked smart move, but was better than Thompson's PR swap.  Of course Thompson isn't really a Manager.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Nava was a defensive sub (for Carp) after the Sox took the lead on Pedroia's homer.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Nava was a defensive sub (for Carp) after the Sox took the lead on Pedroia's homer.

 
Yes, but in a one run game where you might want the better bat, you have to think twice about that.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Uehara only throwing 8 or 9 pitches in his first inning helped, so did the fact that he had guys named Britton, Beato, and de la Torre behind Koji, Tazawa, Thornton, and Breslow, and he probably didn't want to have to use any of them in a tie game.
 
Bringing in Nava, who can't seem to swing a bat, wasn't a wicked smart move, but was better than Thompson's PR swap.  Of course Thompson isn't really a Manager.

 
To his credit, Farrell then recognized that the situation had changed, and brought in Gomes, who had two excellent PA against Luetge. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

The only big issue I saw last night was letting Seager hit with two outs, a base open, and Ryan on deck in extras. I think Breslow was in. I know Seager's splits suggest he is significantly worse hitting against LHP than RHP, but Ryan is still the one you want to face.