Let's Predict the 2023 Red Sox Season
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I dunno. Now that they’ve won 4 titles I want them to be interesting most years. From 1995 through 2011 I think they had one single losing season?
The Final Countdown:
The Sox are 77-83.
With 2 games left, they have a ceiling of 79 wins and a floor of 77 wins.
All viable contestants are in green. (After a shocking win, @tims4wins and @gibreel, who have been clinging on for dear life for the longest time, have dropped.)
In other news, the teams around us by wins:
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
The Sox are 77-83.
With 2 games left, they have a ceiling of 79 wins and a floor of 77 wins.
All viable contestants are in green. (After a shocking win, @tims4wins and @gibreel, who have been clinging on for dear life for the longest time, have dropped.)
In other news, the teams around us by wins:
Giants: 78
Tigers: 76
Guardians: 76
Pirates: 75
Tankathon has a simulated lottery (with odds) you can click on to see what might happen re: our 2024 draft pick. https://www.tankathon.com/mlbBlizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
gibreel 76
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
What's frustrating is that lately the pitching has been pretty good and the hitting is gone. Sale and Privetta have been really good and Bello before tiring has been good. I guess that's the definition of an atrocious team. When you got the pitching, the hitting doesn't show up. When you got the hitting, the pitching sucks etc..
Every team pretty much wins 60 and loses 60. It's the 42 other games that expose roster construction flaws. Nowhere near enough talent on this team heading into the season to do anything other than flirt with being a .500 club. And yeah, maybe the could have caught lightening in a bottle and done better. Hoping for that is no way to build a team.
The Final Choke-down:
The Sox are 77-84.
With 1 game left, they have a ceiling of 78 wins and a floor of 77 wins.
All viable contestants are in green. @patinorange, @John Marzano Olympic Hero, @Yankeessuck4ever, and @Traut.
In other news, the teams around us by wins:
LogansDad 95
manny 94
Blizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
GB5 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
tims4wins 76
gibreel 76
Papo The Snow Tiger 74
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
strek1 0
The Sox are 77-84.
With 1 game left, they have a ceiling of 78 wins and a floor of 77 wins.
All viable contestants are in green. @patinorange, @John Marzano Olympic Hero, @Yankeessuck4ever, and @Traut.
In other news, the teams around us by wins:
Giants: 78 (ongoing tonight)
Tigers: 77
Guardians: 76
Pirates: 75
Tankathon has a simulated lottery (with odds) you can click on to see what might happen re: our 2024 draft pick. https://www.tankathon.com/mlbBlizzard of 1978 94
koufax32 93
PrometheusWakefield 93
Rovin Romine 92
Apisith 92
chrisfont9 91
Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat 91
Huck Masterson 91
joe dokes 91
rockchalkredsox 91
brs3 90
pk1627 90
deythur 89
Minneapolis Millers 89
PhabPhour20 89
Sin Duda 89
azsoxpatsfan 89
Daniel_Son 88
nvalvo 88
Amos Otis regrets 88
Heating up in the bullpen 88
BaseballJones 88
The Gray Eagle 88
Lowe Carbo 88
Ale Xander 87
KDAWG 87
YTF 87
thestardawg 87
OCD SS 87
The_Dali 86
gryoung 86
Lose Remerswaal 86
zougwa 86
budcrew08 86
Petagine in a Bottle 86
Cassvt2023 86
JM3 85
simplicio 85
snowmanny 85
FlexFlexerson 85
Sox in the sticks 85
CarolinaBeerGuy 85
Max Power 85
BringBackMo 85
iddoc 85
pinkhatfan 85
Sandy Leon Trotsky 84
Skiponzo 84
jwbasham84 84
Yaz4Ever 83
Yelling At Clouds 83
Saints Rest 82
Harry Hooper 82
derekson 81
teds_head 81
moretsyndrome 81
DeadlySplitter 80
Cantor44 80
Mugsy's Jock 80
streeter88 79
Coachster 79
jteders1 79
Curtis Pride 79
Big Papi's Mango Salsa 79
patinorange 78
John Marzano Olympic Hero 77
Yankeessuck4ever 77
Traut 77
gibreel 76
BravesField 73
Salem's Lot 72
Merkle's Boner 70
Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin 68
phineas gage 0
Green Monster 0
WV Sox Fan 0
All set going into lottery:
Sox win tomorrow and pick 11th, Sox lose tomorrow and pick 9th
Question for the thread: when is the draft order actually determined. (When is the lottery run?)
Credit to the finalists for their prognostic WAR, of course, but this seems a little like winning a Jamie Farr lookalike contest.
The lottery is going to jumble things up anyway. Probably not very likely that the one game will move the Sox up or down two slots.
I don't think this is quite right. We're currently 12th & if we win that would leave us 12th, & if we lose 11th as one of Detroit or Cleveland has to win. The Nats can't pick higher than 10th, but we only bump up from there if the Mets don't win the lottery & get dropped 10 spots because if they have a top 6 pick it's their 2nd round pick that drops 10 slots.
So the range of outcomes for our pick should still be 1-6, 9, 11 or 12. Unless someone behind us lotteries, & then we drop further.
It's 3 a.m. & I'm not going to try to figure out the actual correct odds because they're actually not independent, & there's a chance multiple teams leap frog us, so this is going to be super approximate for the non top 6. I bet someone could figure out the actual #s, though.
Odds if we win today:
1st - 1.2%
2nd - 1.3%
3rd - 1.6%
4th - 1.9%
5th - 2.2%
6th - 2.8%
11th - 50%
12th - 24%
13th - 12%
14th - 3%
Odds if we lose today:
1st - 1.6%
2nd - 1.8%
3rd - 2%
4th - 2.3%
5th - 2.8%
6th - 3.5%
9th - 48%
11th - 23%
12th - 11%
13th - 2%
Odds if we win today:
1st - 1.2%
2nd - 1.3%
3rd - 1.6%
4th - 1.9%
5th - 2.2%
6th - 2.8%
11th - 50%
12th - 24%
13th - 12%
14th - 3%
Odds if we lose today:
1st - 1.6%
2nd - 1.8%
3rd - 2%
4th - 2.3%
5th - 2.8%
6th - 3.5%
9th - 48%
11th - 23%
12th - 11%
13th - 2%
There can be only one: the Sox have finished 78-84.
I am pleased to announce that @patinorange has joined the illustrious company of @Hank Scorpio and @Apisith as True Predictors.
Although they are not needed to crown this year's prognosticator, I'll do a followup at some point with the answers to the tie-breaker questions. @JM3 did some pretty great work in compiling all the individual predictions, and it will be interesting to see what they are. (Although anyone who wants to take those posts on as a project is welcome to do so - the data is what it is.)
Thank you all for playing!
@LogansDad, @manny, @Blizzard of 1978, @koufax32, @PrometheusWakefield, @Rovin Romine, @Apisith, @chrisfont9, @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat, @Huck Masterson, @joe dokes, @rockchalkredsox, @brs3, @pk1627, @deythur, @Minneapolis Millers, @PhabPhour20, @Sin Duda, @azsoxpatsfan, @Daniel_Son, @nvalvo, @Amos Otis regrets, @Heating up in the bullpen, @BaseballJones, @The Gray Eagle, @Lowe Carbo, @Ale Xander, @KDAWG, @YTF, @thestardawg, @OCD SS, @The_Dali, @gryoung, @Lose Remerswaal, @zougwa, @budcrew08, @Petagine in a Bottle, @Cassvt2023, @JM3, @simplicio, @snowmanny, @FlexFlexerson, @Sox in the sticks, @CarolinaBeerGuy, @Max Power, @BringBackMo, @iddoc, @pinkhatfan, @Sandy Leon Trotsky, @Skiponzo, @jwbasham84, @Yaz4Ever, @Yelling At Clouds, @Saints Rest, @Harry Hooper, @derekson, @teds_head, @moretsyndrome, @DeadlySplitter, @cantor44, @Mugsy's Jock, @streeter88, @Coachster, @jteders1, @Curtis Pride, @Big Papi's Mango Salsa, @GB5, @patinorange, @John Marzano Olympic Hero, @Yankeessuck4ever, @Traut, @tims4wins, @gibreel, @Papo The Snow Tiger, @BravesField, @Salem's Lot, @Merkle's Boner, @Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin, @phineas gage, @Green Monster, @WV Sox Fan, @strek1
I am pleased to announce that @patinorange has joined the illustrious company of @Hank Scorpio and @Apisith as True Predictors.
Although they are not needed to crown this year's prognosticator, I'll do a followup at some point with the answers to the tie-breaker questions. @JM3 did some pretty great work in compiling all the individual predictions, and it will be interesting to see what they are. (Although anyone who wants to take those posts on as a project is welcome to do so - the data is what it is.)
Thank you all for playing!
@LogansDad, @manny, @Blizzard of 1978, @koufax32, @PrometheusWakefield, @Rovin Romine, @Apisith, @chrisfont9, @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat, @Huck Masterson, @joe dokes, @rockchalkredsox, @brs3, @pk1627, @deythur, @Minneapolis Millers, @PhabPhour20, @Sin Duda, @azsoxpatsfan, @Daniel_Son, @nvalvo, @Amos Otis regrets, @Heating up in the bullpen, @BaseballJones, @The Gray Eagle, @Lowe Carbo, @Ale Xander, @KDAWG, @YTF, @thestardawg, @OCD SS, @The_Dali, @gryoung, @Lose Remerswaal, @zougwa, @budcrew08, @Petagine in a Bottle, @Cassvt2023, @JM3, @simplicio, @snowmanny, @FlexFlexerson, @Sox in the sticks, @CarolinaBeerGuy, @Max Power, @BringBackMo, @iddoc, @pinkhatfan, @Sandy Leon Trotsky, @Skiponzo, @jwbasham84, @Yaz4Ever, @Yelling At Clouds, @Saints Rest, @Harry Hooper, @derekson, @teds_head, @moretsyndrome, @DeadlySplitter, @cantor44, @Mugsy's Jock, @streeter88, @Coachster, @jteders1, @Curtis Pride, @Big Papi's Mango Salsa, @GB5, @patinorange, @John Marzano Olympic Hero, @Yankeessuck4ever, @Traut, @tims4wins, @gibreel, @Papo The Snow Tiger, @BravesField, @Salem's Lot, @Merkle's Boner, @Lose Remerswaal's Foolish Cousin, @phineas gage, @Green Monster, @WV Sox Fan, @strek1
And I ended up 1 game closer than my foolish cousin did to predicting the total, so he owes $50 to the Jimmy Fund.
Which, after events of the day, I will be matching anyway.
Which, after events of the day, I will be matching anyway.
I would have much preferred to be totally wrong and ridiculed after they won the World Series.