Let's Lay Off That Throttle

nvalvo

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Wait. You think that THIS year's team is better than LAST year's team?
I do, and that’s before they add another starter, which I expect them to do shortly after they put Hendricks on the 60-day IL.

Last year’s team had Kiké Hernández as its starting SS, Adam Duvall as its starting CF, and Enmanuel Valdez as its starting 2B. Unsurprisingly, they also had the worst defense in baseball by a considerable margin. Corey Kluber was the opening day starter.
 

chawson

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Can we stop pretending that Jordan Montgomery was the only way to use money to upgrade the roster?

Houck is starting
Bobby Dalbec is on the roster
They are 32 million under the tax threshold
Houck is a decent to good starting pitcher, and is one of the players whose repertoires best line up with those Bailey has helped in the past.

Bobby Dalbec probably won't be on the roster, but as backup first basemen go, this version of him is not a terrible guy to have on the 40-man as long as he's got an option.

I'm unimpressed by them spending less money. But adding big ticket FAs block certain players we are excited about, who happen to make very little money because they're pre-arb and under team control for half a decade.

I think the thing that we are pretending is that there were infinite ways to improve the roster this offseason at only money. There were not! There were the pitchers who signed, most of them with preferred teams that were not the Red Sox.

The one area that seems active is Pivetta's replacement after this season. I'd be fine with extending him, but it also makes sense to sign Montgomery and deal Pivetta, which would recoup some of the value in prospects that you're spending in money.

I think Giolito will stay, but we'll see.
 

8slim

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Agreed. You can't get burned if you don't stick your hand near the flame.

Also, while many here seem to prefer that the Sox front office take a conservative approach to FA signings I want them to take as much risk as possible. The willingness and ability to wear bad contracts is also a competitive advantage but one that FSG seems happy to concede. Its probably the best approach economically.

Its not that FSG is afraid of making mistakes - its that they feel like any at all will be devastating for their investors. That's great for margins but not for fielding a competitive team.
For years I’ve felt that the biggest advantage to being a big market MLB team is exactly what you suggest… having the flexibility to make mistakes.

It’s not that small market teams can’t compete, it’s that they have to be near flawless in doing so. Because one or 2 bad deals and it’s back to the wilderness they go.

But Boston? LA? NY? SF? Chicago? A couple of bad deals is just money, there’s plenty more to paper over those errors.

Wild to think we’re not interested in using that advantage to our benefit anymore.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I do, and that’s before they add another starter, which I expect them to do shortly after they put Hendricks on the 60-day IL.

Last year’s team had Kiké Hernández as its starting SS, Adam Duvall as its starting CF, and Enmanuel Valdez as its starting 2B. Unsurprisingly, they also had the worst defense in baseball by a considerable margin. Corey Kluber was the opening day starter.
This isn’t exactly true; the bulk of innings at SS, CF, and 2B were not from these guys. Hernandez (who was considered excellent defensively at this time a year ago, IIRC) and Duvall each played less than 500 innings at SS and CF, respectively. Valdez played 357 innings at 2B.

That being said, guys will get injured and I don’t see how this team has the depth currently to withstand any kind of disruption to the starting lineup.
 

Rovin Romine

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Media aside, the players have eyes. Devers knows what the team was lacking last season, and what productive players departed.

Now he’s arrived in Ft. Myers to find that much of that hasn’t been adequately addressed.
Seems to me the team was lacking a 3B who could play league average defense.

Devers may have an entirely valid point about the pitching roster, but it's not like the team wouldn't improve if he were to leave off sampling the Chicharrón and do some work at Story's IF camp or the like.
 

Jimbodandy

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Red Sox ownership has failed on many fronts, but a lot of this from Cora and the players comes off as whining and entitlement. I feel like both of these things can be true. I‘d rather Devers have the mindset in spring training that he’s going to put the team on his back and have an MVP season, not this fatalistic attitude.
Wow.

You'd rather hear lies than the truth then. Devers could hit 60 homers next year and win the GG and this team might still suck. If he could throw quality starts on three days rest too, now we're talking.

This roster rucks, and the players know it. And the team could have done something about it and didn't.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Wait. You think that THIS year's team is better than LAST year's team? Really?

I didn't think last year's team was any great shakes, but I think that if they augmented the team in July* with a starting pitcher or two, they could have made August and September interesting.

This year, IDK man. I don't think that they're even going to give us a half season of being frisky.
I said “assuming better health than last years” yes. As in all 5 current starters are relatively healthy all season long. And that doesn’t equalize last year’s team’s health- only its record. I think as is, they’re good for 82-85 wins.
Add Montgomery… bump Whitlock and Houck to the pen and it’s 86-90. Assuming health…. Like I said before
 

jbupstate

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Agree about the vibes.

Media aside, the players have eyes. Devers knows what the team was lacking last season, and what productive players departed.

Now he’s arrived in Ft. Myers to find that much of that hasn’t been adequately addressed.
Devers of all people should STFU. Got the big bag of cash while on a last place team. Then proceeds to play absolutely embarrassing defense. Maybe play a little better?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Seems to me the team was lacking a 3B who could play league average defense.

Devers may have an entirely valid point about the pitching roster, but it's not like the team wouldn't improve if he were to leave off sampling the Chicharrón and do some work at Story's IF camp or the like.
Shut up and dribble!
 

TubeSoxs

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Dec 16, 2022
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Wow.

You'd rather hear lies than the truth then. Devers could hit 60 homers next year and win the GG and this team might still suck. If he could throw quality starts on three days rest too, now we're talking.

This roster rucks, and the players know it. And the team could have done something about it and didn't.
Well Jensen has come out and said he was told the team that they would be in contention this year. You’d have to wonder with, Dever’s recent comments, if similar was hinted to when he signed his extension. I wouldn’t really blame them for speaking out if this were the case. We’ve heard Kennedy flip flop this offseason, so it’s not too difficult to take the players at their words. Ownership just doesn’t want to own up.
 

DLew On Roids

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Devers of all people should STFU. Got the big bag of cash while on a last place team. Then proceeds to play absolutely embarrassing defense. Maybe play a little better?
If the guy who led the team in WAR while providing decent value ($5M per win) can’t speak up, it sounds like you don’t want anyone to speak up. Or maybe you’d just rather have a gritty dirt dog who plays the game the right way do it.
 

ehaz

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Wow can't believe Kenley and Devers were brainwashed by Cotillo's reporting.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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For years I’ve felt that the biggest advantage to being a big market MLB team is exactly what you suggest… having the flexibility to make mistakes.

It’s not that small market teams can’t compete, it’s that they have to be near flawless in doing so. Because one or 2 bad deals and it’s back to the wilderness they go.

But Boston? LA? NY? SF? Chicago? A couple of bad deals is just money, there’s plenty more to paper over those errors.

Wild to think we’re not interested in using that advantage to our benefit anymore.
Given the franchise, the fanbase and market, like you I would expect the Sox to be one of the teams that can live with bad deals.

It is indeed wild that they cannot make it work but maybe you can't sustainably run the Red Sox this way like the Dodgers or one of the other big spenders. I would just like to see them try.
 

canderson

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I wonder if Breslow bolts soon. It seems he was openly lied to and is now in a hostile environment and doesn’t have the right to actually improve this team. I’d be floored if the 2024 Sox win more than 70 games. They’re going to be very bad. And hate playing. That’s a horrible combo.
 

nvalvo

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This isn’t exactly true; the bulk of innings at SS, CF, and 2B were not from these guys. Hernandez (who was considered excellent defensively at this time a year ago, IIRC) and Duvall each played less than 500 innings at SS and CF, respectively. Valdez played 357 innings at 2B.

That being said, guys will get injured and I don’t see how this team has the depth currently to withstand any kind of disruption to the starting lineup.
I'll accept the correction, but Hernandez did have the most SS innings played on the team, in the midst of his 86-game, -1.5 fWAR season — worse on a rate basis than Pablo Sandoval's time in Boston — even if Valdez was second to Arroyo in 2B innings played and Duvall second to Duran in CF innings played.

(I also thought that Hernandez would be playable this time last year; I don't know what happened to him. Was it playing CF for Puerto Rico instead of SS in Ft. Myers, as Cora surmised?)

The fact of the matter is that the Story injury derailed the 2023 team before January. Bloom did what he did under the roster constraints he had, adding Duvall, Mondesi and Chang, but (as we endlessly litigated at the time and since) there weren't a ton of appealing possibilities. If Hernandez had been even close to average and Mondesi had made it back by June (as was hoped), it might have worked, but that didn't materialize.

If we again face the level of injuries we saw in 2023 at up-the-middle positions, we'll be in trouble: most teams would if they lost their starting SS, brought in a CF (who promptly got hurt) to move their CF (whose performance imploded) to SS, and two veteran SS, one injured (who never recovered) and another (who got hurt). They promoted a CF prospect who was great, until he got hurt. Also, their best 2B got hurt, and was bad when he played. That's a lot.

But as I look at things, we have a lot more depth in the high minors than we did to begin last season, with probably four of the Abreu/Rafaela/Yorke/Dalbec/Valdez/Nick Sogard group in AAA offering pretty good positional coverage and our higher upside guys probably starting in AA. Remember that both Grissom and Rafaela are SS by background.

The 2023 team defense mattered a ton, I think. I'm not trying to argue that we had a *good* pitching staff in a fielding-independent vacuum, but we had an okay pitching staff: they were middle of the pack by ERA-, FIP-, SIERA, barrels and EV allowed, etc. and flat-out terrible (like, bottom five in a few stats) by anything that incorporates defense. Fangraphs thinks our elevated BABIP (i.e. bad team defense) cost us 3.5 wins. Only Oakland, St. Louis, and Colorado were worse.

So the bull case for the 2024 Red Sox leans pretty hard on some combination of Story, O'Neill, Duran, Grissom, and Rafaela snapping our up-the-middle defense into place in a way that yields an acceptable overall team defense. Especially the infielders: we need a revamped defense to allow *our staff of groundball pitchers* like Houck (2023: 53% GB percentage, .297 BABIP), Bello (56%, .306), Winckowski (51%, .331), Whitlock (44%, .340), Bernardino (50%, .338), and Jacques (65%, .357) to actually have a chance to succeed. Again: I'm not saying things would have been amazing on the pitching front with average infield defense, but I think it's fair to say that Hernandez throwing 12 groundballs into the stands while compiling his 151 assists from SS didn't exactly help.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Can we stop pretending that Jordan Montgomery was the only way to use money to upgrade the roster?

They are 32 million under the tax threshold
This is what I've found confusing. There are some ways to improve the team without breaking the budget. It's strange to me that they've not even made more small, budget-friendly moves. Those moves are out there! I'm also a little surprised that they haven't made any "buy" trades; maybe guys like Yorke don't have as much value as some of us may have thought. But still.

The thing about this is that these small moves - if they hit - really could propel them to the fringes of WC contention, despite, apparently, the prevailing sentiment on this board.
 

8slim

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Well Jensen has come out and said he was told the team that they would be in contention this year. You’d have to wonder with, Dever’s recent comments, if similar was hinted to when he signed his extension. I wouldn’t really blame them for speaking out if this were the case. We’ve heard Kennedy flip flop this offseason, so it’s not too difficult to take the players at their words. Ownership just doesn’t want to own up.
Unfortunately Kenley was told that by the guy who got fired. I imagine if Devers was told the same it came from that guy as well.

I think we can all agree the current CBO doesn’t think we’re gonna compete for a title this season. Far from it.
 

8slim

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Given the franchise, the fanbase and market, like you I would expect the Sox to be one of the teams that can live with bad deals.

It is indeed wild that they cannot make it work but maybe you can't sustainably run the Red Sox this way like the Dodgers or one of the other big spenders. I would just like to see them try.
They used to try. And they won 4 titles!

The Sox were a top 3 payroll for two decades and have unbelievable results to justify that approach.

But then David Price and Chris Sale happened and apparently that’s that.

Shame those guys didn’t contribute to any on field success.
 

simplicio

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I wonder if Breslow bolts soon. It seems he was openly lied to and is now in a hostile environment and doesn’t have the right to actually improve this team. I’d be floored if the 2024 Sox win more than 70 games. They’re going to be very bad. And hate playing. That’s a horrible combo.
Do you have Breslow getting replaced by Bobby Valentine? Cause 2012 is the only full season since 1965 they've failed to win 70.
 

Devizier

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One thing I always found funny about asking for trades is how the guys that would be getting replaced will react when those trades don’t happen.
 

BigSoxFan

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Devers is the guy who SHOULD be speaking up as the best player on the team.
Absolutely. Dude wanted help last year at the deadline. Didn’t get it. Wanted help this offseason. Didn’t get it. I love that he’s fired up about it and I hope he continues to bring attention to the lackluster offseason and garbage messaging campaign from the front office, something that is now apparent to basically everyone paying attention.

I thought it was curious why nobody wanted to sniff this job. We now know why. They all had good intel about how things were run. I truly feel bad for Breslow. What a tough situation to start out in and you have ownership ready to stick the knife in your back the moment things go south.
 

pk1627

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I wonder if Breslow bolts soon. It seems he was openly lied to and is now in a hostile environment and doesn’t have the right to actually improve this team. I’d be floored if the 2024 Sox win more than 70 games. They’re going to be very bad. And hate playing. That’s a horrible combo.
Easily my favorite post of this sterling offseason. Sounds like Breslow won’t break camp with the team. And they’ll hate playing
 

TomRicardo

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I do, and that’s before they add another starter, which I expect them to do shortly after they put Hendricks on the 60-day IL.

Last year’s team had Kiké Hernández as its starting SS, Adam Duvall as its starting CF, and Enmanuel Valdez as its starting 2B. Unsurprisingly, they also had the worst defense in baseball by a considerable margin. Corey Kluber was the opening day starter.
No player on the Red Sox roster has had a better season than Kike Hernandez did since 2021. Let that simmer for a bit.
 
Mar 30, 2023
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Devers of all people should STFU. Got the big bag of cash while on a last place team. Then proceeds to play absolutely embarrassing defense. Maybe play a little better?
Wow - one of the leaders of SoSH's "anyone who questions the team's direction is an EEI caller" contingent comes out with a hot take ripped straight from Tommy in Quincy. What a complex character arc!
 

LogansDad

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I’m not sure what this means
I think what he is trying to say is that Kiké put up 5 WAR in 2021, and no current Red Sox player has had a season that good since then.

Which isn't..... wrong. I just don't know what the point is, since Kiké isn't all that likely to replicate it.
 
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jbupstate

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Way too harsh of a reaction on Devers comments. Point taken and shots deserved.

I would prefer the best player and leader of the team to take it straight to management.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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I can't believe some people are critical of Devers and others here. Half the members of this board are losing their minds over the franchise's sudden penury - we shouldn't expect some players to feel the same way? This is just entertainment for us, a hobby. It's their career, their profession, their life. Of course they're mad.
 

jbupstate

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I can't believe some people are critical of Devers and others here. Half the members of this board are losing their minds over the franchise's sudden penury - we shouldn't expect some players to feel the same way? This is just entertainment for us. It's their career, their profession, their life. Of course they're mad.
They might die?
 

Hank Scorpio

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They might die?
Imagine it’s game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. The Bloody Sock Game. Instead of Orlando Cabrera at short, we had some stone-handed AAAA scrub. He makes a costly error, which eventually ties the game at 4, causing the game to go 24 innings. Curt could have bled out in that timeframe. All because of a front office afraid to make bold moves.
 

Rovin Romine

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I can't believe some people are critical of Devers and others here. Half the members of this board are losing their minds over the franchise's sudden penury - we shouldn't expect some players to feel the same way? This is just entertainment for us, a hobby. It's their career, their profession, their life. Of course they're mad.
The feels cut both ways. You're not telling other people how to feel, are you?
 

Salem's Lot

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Devers of all people should STFU. Got the big bag of cash while on a last place team. Then proceeds to play absolutely embarrassing defense. Maybe play a little better?
Are you serious with this crap? If (and that’s a big if) that Mookie Betts didn’t want to re sign here, it’s this kind of mentality.

The guy is the only game changing bat on this team, and people are bad mouthing him because he has the audacity to ask the ownership to give enough of a fuck about winning baseball games to actually sign a pitcher or two.

That’s bullshit, the guy was never going to be Brooks Robinson over there. He’s paid to hit and he does that very well.
 

Devizier

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I mean, Devers can talk all he wants, but he declined last year. If he replicates that performance, he’ll already be underwater in year one of his extension.

I’m okay with that; you have to spend to keep these kinds of players around, but it’s not like he played like the franchise cornerstone people expect him to be.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Devers season was completely in line with what he’s done throughout his career, a 126 OPS+ vs a career 124, with mediocre defense. I think people assumed that he’d suddenly become a better player with a bigger contract.
 

tims4wins

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Devers season was completely in line with what he’s done throughout his career, a 126 OPS+ vs a career 124, with mediocre defense. I think people assumed that he’d suddenly become a better player with a bigger contract.
Maybe people assumed that he’d be a better player in his age 25 year than his age 24 year. I certainly did. Shouldn’t his next few years be his peak?
 

Devizier

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Devers season was completely in line with what he’s done throughout his career, a 126 OPS+ vs a career 124, with mediocre defense. I think people assumed that he’d suddenly become a better player with a bigger contract.
I don’t know what to tell you, because that number is lower than the ones from the two years before it. It’s pretty much backed by every other metric you’d care to look at. But it’s worth mentioning you’d expect an improvement in performance because Devers is entering his prime. It’s really besides the point, except that the outcome of Devers’ contract might play some role in how responsive ownership will be to the fans in the future.
 

RedOctober3829

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Way too harsh of a reaction on Devers comments. Point taken and shots deserved.

I would prefer the best player and leader of the team to take it straight to management.
He did.

“Interestingly, Devers went on to share that he had communicated these same thoughts to ownership. So this wasn’t public grandstanding on his part; Devers were merely repeating much of the same message he had already given to ownership.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/in-calling-out-red-sox-rafael-devers-begins-to-warm-to-role-of-team-leader-mcadam.html
 

sodenj5

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Odd reaction from some posters on Devers comments basically saying exactly what everyone here is saying and thinking.

Devers speaking up about ownership isn’t a minor deal for him. He’s typically pretty quiet and reserved. The odds of him saying something like that publicly echoing the thoughts inside the locker room are very high.
 

HfxBob

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I don’t know what to tell you, because that number is lower than the ones from the two years before it. It’s pretty much backed by every other metric you’d care to look at. But it’s worth mentioning you’d expect an improvement in performance because Devers is entering his prime. It’s really besides the point, except that the outcome of Devers’ contract might play some role in how responsive ownership will be to the fans in the future.
What we can't expect is a nice neat linear progression. There are going to be some ups and downs.

That last sentence of yours places quite the burden on Devers - man, if he doesn't earn his contract over the next 10 years, Red Sox fans will really be in shit!
 

Van Everyman

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Odd reaction from some posters on Devers comments basically saying exactly what everyone here is saying and thinking.

Devers speaking up about ownership isn’t a minor deal for him. He’s typically pretty quiet and reserved. The odds of him saying something like that publicly echoing the thoughts inside the locker room are very high.
Didn’t he speak up at the deadline just last year?
 

Devizier

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That last sentence of yours places quite the burden on Devers - man, if he doesn't earn his contract over the next 10 years, Red Sox fans will really be in shit!
I mean, whatever. He’s the holder of the largest contract in team history, by a cool hundred million over the next guy. The burden was already there. Rooting for him but there’s an outside chance that the deal is underwater already. More power to him for signing it, but you’re nuts if you think ownership doesn’t notice.

There’s also the fact that 4 of the other 5 largest contracts in team history went underwater pretty quickly. The other one wasn’t signed under the current regime.