Let's Lay Off That Throttle

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Would Sox fans accept this for very long? I'm thinking probably not. It's a nice consolation, I guess, but I'd rather build for the future as unsexy as that sounds. I wouldn't want to be the Angels, or an Angels fan right now.

I grew up watching some great stars, but while Jim Rice moonshots, Evans cannon arm, and Yaz being Yaz were so so much fun to watch, it was the teams that won and went on great runs I appreciated most.

Morgan magic in '88 was truly magic, and the run in '90 was beyond amazing. How about that Jeff Stone! He had a bat in his hand, didn't he? I still get chills. I was able to be in the park for 20+ games that year, including Brunansky's catch (fuck off Ozzie!) and the Stone game and it was an incredible, incredible rush.

Sure, there were some stars on the teams, and Clemens was must see, but it was the collective that mattered a whole hell of a lot more.

Yeah, I agree with all that. Those teams, even if they fell short, had players that were worth seeing. The big frustration in the 70s/80s (other than coming up short again and again) was that the good ones would often end up leaving because the cheapskates who ran the club didn't want to participate in free agency. Hmm... I guess we are right back there.

Really, is there much reason to think that Casas or any other youngster is going to accept a team friendly extension? Or that this franchise is going to offer them something more than a team friendly deal? These guys must read the same news we do. Aren't they also wondering if the club is serious about building a contender? If they think the answer is no, why would they hang around? At least the guys in Atlanta think they are working towards something meaningful.

Let's face it, Casas and Mayer and so on are probably leaving the same way Mookie did unless there's a major change in this franchise's approach.

 

[HfxBob]

I will say this for FSG: at least they are being honest now, at least with themselves. Werner probably truly believes that they'll sell tickets to students (probably true) and - as with the debate over the term "competitive" with regards to the YY situation - the Fenway "experience" is something that will draw some fans in. Tourists. Parents taking kids too young to care about Bello's xFIP in day/night splits and just want to see someone hit a HR. Luxury boxes, especially when salespeople are taking clients out. Etc. Why he would say any of that out loud I have no idea, but I can at least appreciate that they are being upfront (even if what they are saying is pretty disappointing) rather than just shoveling what they were before. It at least lets fans set their own expectations, whether that's watching the kids develop, a Cinderella run, pass on this year, whatever.

But their messaging about the payroll continues to be all over the place. Kennedy said the 2024 payroll is 'probably' going to be lower than the 2023 payroll. But this was after Werner had said:

In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig [Breslow] is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.

Why did Kennedy say what he did, when it's only January, there are still a bunch of unsigned FA's, and they "don't have a line in terms of our payroll"? If he's the one being honest, how can Werner's statement also be an honest one?

 

[TapeAndPosts]

What I get from this is that ownership says the words they "want to win", but they don't want to commit resources past a certain point and so they are counting on the winning to come from their baseball operations people being brilliant with what they have. Bloom was fired despite greatly improving the farm system because he produced insufficient magic with the payroll he was given. If Breslow doesn't oversee a return to better teams he will be fired too, regardless of how much he's being hamstrung by ownership decisions, and they will keep looking everywhere but in the mirror.

I used to think "there is a plan", and I'm sure that Bloom had a plan and Breslow is putting one together now but I have lost the idea that ownership has a plan beyond crossing their fingers and hoping they'll get more than they paid for.

 

[astrozombie]

But their messaging about the payroll continues to be all over the place. Kennedy said the 2024 payroll is 'probably' going to be lower than the 2023 payroll. But this was after Werner had said:

In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig [Breslow] is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.

Why did Kennedy say what he did, when it's only January, there are still a bunch of unsigned FA's, and they "don't have a line in terms of our payroll"? If he's the one being honest, how can Werner's statement also be an honest one?

To be upfront, I have been vocal (to a fault) that ownership has been lying to fans for awhile now. I think the honest quotes are the ones about limiting payroll. Why do I think Werner said that? Because 1) it sounds good and 2) shifts any blame to Breslow. I don't think very highly of Werner and he has already had to walk back the full throttle comment with some dumb explanation. And if I really wanted to parse what Werner meant, I would assume he meant something along the lines of "if Breslow gets us the guy we want at the price we want, we're not going to say no", which is a far cry from "money is no object." I hope this answers your question; Ill be honest I am bit burnt out on all of this today.

 

[brienc]

Where would FSG have suffered losses this winter? Liverpool?

The Main Stand expansion at Anfield has been a disaster, and is still not fully opened yet, but I have no idea if those are the losses Gammons is referring to. This article is not so new, but it gives an overview of the situation.


Further delays to Anfield extension

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'm just catching up on the last 18 or so hours of posts on this thread so hang with me ladies and gents...a few observations

* As a long long time fan as well, I'm frustrated sure. Mostly that the PR and messaging from Henry (radio silence) Werner (please just stop talking) and Kennedy (Theo's high school buddy seems a bit in over his head, stick to the business side) treats knowledgeable, passionate, educated fans like the vast majority on here are, like idiots. We aren't the pink hat crowd that sings Sweet Caroline at the top of our lungs when we're down 9-1 in the 8th. Please give your true fans more credit than that.

*It is way too early to blame Breslow for anything, the guy deserves a shot to implement his pitching philosophy and it will take a couple of years at least. If there is anything he may be guilty of so far, it's not being crystal clear what his budget ramifications/restrictions were going to be before taking the job. Not only is he a really smart guy, but he also played in this market so he understands that aspect of it as well.

*The idea of a SoSH Polar Park gathering this summer is a great idea, I'm in. You may also want to consider catching a couple games at Hadlock Field in Portland this year. My family spends a week in Kennebunkport most summers, and if you haven't been its a great minor league park and they do it right, especially if you're bringing kids. There is some sort of contest or activity between most innings, tickets are dirt cheap, seating is plentiful, parking easy, food not outrageous, the players are happy to talk to fans, etc.. and its where a lot of the Sox top prospects look to be this summer. Check it out!

*Although there are a lot of great posters on here, I learn a ton from reading a lot of you here, and I applaud most of you for keeping the forum thoughtful, insightful and interesting, especially on days like yesterday with new info to talk about, can we agree that @CR67dream has gone above and beyond lately for expressing his thoughts all while keeping things on track and walking guys off the ledge from time to time. You may have a future as a crisis counselor or hostage negotiator my friend

 

[jbupstate]

It means that there are 2 starting pitchers, Snell and Montgomery, who are free agents that can be signed for just money (or out there for the taking).

I am struggling to figure out what else it could mean

$300m each? Just money?

There are limits. Even for billionaires.

 

[Benj4ever]

I used to think "there is a plan", and I'm sure that Bloom had a plan and Breslow is putting one together now but I have lost the idea that ownership has a plan beyond crossing their fingers and hoping they'll get more than they paid for.

As Breslow pointed out, the plan is to keep on developing the core of the team around young players. It's not the plan a lot of fans want, as it looks pretty much like the plan under Bloom.

 

[RedOctober3829]

What does this mean?

I am trying to understand where you’re coming from but that’s just not a reasonable statement. Soler is a long term answer? He’s a DH. Substitute Snell for last season’s big tickets in Rodon and DeGrom. Both the Yankees and Rangers would love a do over.

Montgomery is a guy that makes sense. But universal reports have him wanting the Rangers. The Sox would have to absolutely blow him away… He’s a good pitcher but doesn’t have the upside in ability or young.

So because Rodon and deGrom got hurt you don't go after Blake Snell? That's a weak argument. Believe me, the Red Sox would be just fine long-term financially if Snell doesn't live up to the billing. Go look at the money committed to the team in the next few years. That is, if this ownership group wanted to act like a big-market franchise. If Snell doesn't want to leave the West Coast, try to outbid Texas for Montgomery. Eventually, they need to add building blocks to this team to help whatever young core develops.

My statement is that Soler and the 2 SP's are still free agents so you can sign them. The 2 SPs are both short and long-term answers because you'd be signing them to longer-term contracts but also can get you better in the short term. Not that hard to figure out.

Soler would add much-needed right handed power for a couple years to the lineup and can play both DH and OF if need be.

 

[CR67dream]

I'm just catching up on the last 18 or so hours of posts on this thread so hang with me ladies and gents...a few observations

* As a long long time fan as well, I'm frustrated sure. Mostly that the PR and messaging from Henry (radio silence) Werner (please just stop talking) and Kennedy (Theo's high school buddy seems a bit in over his head, stick to the business side) treats knowledgeable, passionate, educated fans like the vast majority on here are, like idiots. We aren't the pink hat crowd that sings Sweet Caroline at the top of our lungs when we're down 9-1 in the 8th. Please give your true fans more credit than that.

*It is way too early to blame Breslow for anything, the guy deserves a shot to implement his pitching philosophy and it will take a couple of years at least. If there is anything he may be guilty of so far, it's not being crystal clear what his budget ramifications/restrictions were going to be before taking the job. Not only is he a really smart guy, but he also played in this market so he understands that aspect of it as well.

*The idea of a SoSH Polar Park gathering this summer is a great idea, I'm in. You may also want to consider catching a couple games at Hadlock Field in Portland this year. My family spends a week in Kennebunkport most summers, and if you haven't been its a great minor league park and they do it right, especially if you're bringing kids. There is some sort of contest or activity between most innings, tickets are dirt cheap, seating is plentiful, parking easy, food not outrageous, the players are happy to talk to fans, etc.. and its where a lot of the Sox top prospects look to be this summer. Check it out!

*Although there are a lot of great posters on here, I learn a ton from reading a lot of you here, and I applaud most of you for keeping the forum thoughtful, insightful and interesting, especially on days like yesterday with new info to talk about, can we agree that @CR67dream has gone above and beyond lately for expressing his thoughts all while keeping things on track and walking guys off the ledge from time to time. You may have a future as a crisis counselor or hostage negotiator my friend

Thank you for the kind words.

One thing that is for sure is that I am a whole lot more concerned about the well-being of this board and its members than I am with the fate of the 2024 Red Sox.

I always try to remember that it's an honest to God human being on the other end of the intertubes, and I treasure this place like no other. Anything I've posted here lately is meant to be a reflection of that.

Thanks to everyone for your presence here. It's the membership that drives the place. As it should be.

 

[TapeAndPosts]

As Breslow pointed out, the plan is to keep on developing the core of the team around young players. It's not the plan a lot of fans want, as it looks pretty much like the plan under Bloom.

Yeah, I agree that was Bloom's plan and seems to be Breslow's as well, and moreover I think it's the right plan.

Ownership fired Bloom though, instead of sticking with him and the plan. They could have, for example, tried to bring in someone like Breslow to assist Bloom in pitching development specifically, if that was perceived as a weak spot in the organization. Which along with all this has made me come to believe they have expectations for results at a higher level than they are willing to commit resources to.

I'm still going to root for the team, and root for Breslow and his people to succeed, but I don't have the same faith in ownership commitment behind them that I did even a few months ago.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

What I get from this is that ownership says the words they "want to win", but they don't want to commit resources past a certain point and so they are counting on the winning to come from their baseball operations people being brilliant with what they have. Bloom was fired despite greatly improving the farm system because he produced insufficient magic with the payroll he was given. If Breslow doesn't oversee a return to better teams he will be fired too, regardless of how much he's being hamstrung by ownership decisions, and they will keep looking everywhere but in the mirror.

I used to think "there is a plan", and I'm sure that Bloom had a plan and Breslow is putting one together now but I have lost the idea that ownership has a plan beyond crossing their fingers and hoping they'll get more than they paid for.

At a certain point, this is fair. With the recent explosion in FA salaries (and the actions of the Dodgers, Mets and Padres, specifically), having one of the top payrolls has not coincided with winning titles the way it did when FSG took over.

Last year Texas “bought” their way to a title in many ways, and they were 4th (NYM, NYY and SD all missed the playoffs, Philly and Houston were 5th and 7th). In 2022, Philly was 5th and Houston was 8th (the Sox were 6th and missed the playoffs). In 2021 Houston was 5th and Atlanta was 10th (Boston was 6th).

They don’t need to be a top 3 payroll to win titles, but realistically, they need to be in the top 10. As things stand presently, they’re 10th for 2024. The issue is that they money they have spent has not been on things that have been good or “close” to their value.

Sale was obv a huge albatross and signing / holding on to that was justifiable for firing on its own of both DDski and Bloom.

Story was a combination of not worth it (first half of ‘22) and worthless (since). Probably doesn’t help, optics wise, that his coming in meant that Bogaerts was almost always likely going out.

Yoshida has been worth about 50% of his contract.

Those that they have “hit on” by nature of their roles don’t really move the needle (Jansen, Martin, Whitlock).

They need to spend money better. Plain and simple. Hopefully Breslow will. My hope is that ownerships “plan” is to give Breslow a budget and get out of the way. My hope is that Breslow’s plan is to do what should have been done since the off season following the 2021 off season.

Go get some controllable starting pitching (trade for it, develop it, sign it, whatever), move one year deals for multiple years of control, and possibly find players that don’t rely exclusively on being platooned and not playing any semblance of defense.

 

[BravesField]

Let's face it, Casas and Mayer and so on are probably leaving the same way Mookie did unless there's a major change in this franchise's approach.

If Casas and Mayer and so on can deliver over the next 5-7 years to Mookie's level.....I'm down with that.

 

[Auger34]

$300m each? Just money?

There are limits. Even for billionaires.

Just money, as opposed to trading assets for a pitcher.

Come on dude, use at least a little bit of critical thinking here.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I don't think this is true. They saw Tampa getting good pitching performances out of low paid guys and wanted someone who could replicate that, so they hired a guy from the Rays. Bloom completely failed at that part of the job, so they went with Breslow to accomplish the same thing. If you start with the fact that ownership does not believe in spending big money on free agent pitchers, then going from Bloom to Breslow makes sense.

I think that when the Sox made the pivot from big market team to small market team, my belief is that they used the phrase “Tampa Bay model” to cover up the fact that they were going cheap. If you’re the Sox FO you can point your fans to the Rays and their years of success and say, “hey that can be us too! Do you see how much they win?”

Then they went out and got one of the people who was responsible for that. What they didn’t account for is that a majority of Red Sox fans don’t like the TB model, they want stars. And the guy that they picked to get their plan off the ground sucked.

TB trades a lot and they draft well. Bloom did zero of the former because he was too afraid to pull the trigger and pissed a lot of people off with his reluctance. As far as the latter, we’ll see how he did. If high level prospects didn’t land in his lap, I’d say the jury is still out on him.

As far as ownership not willing to spend big money on pitchers I agree with you and I’ll go one step further: ownership doesn’t want to spend big money on any free agent players.

I think they’ve been burned and decided not to do so anymore. Which is foolish because that’s how modern baseball works. It would be like Lou Gorman saying “we’re not going to make any trade because I fucked up with Bagwell for Andersen.” You don’t remove an avenue to improve your team because you made mistakes in the past.

Especially when there are only three avenues to make your team better. It’s insane

I get your general point, but I'd argue given the financial constraints, we need a smart, creative head of baseball ops more than ever. I think it's the only thing we can hang our hats on. Money makes it a lot easier, but it ain't everything.

Winning in spite of cheap ownership in the Major Leagues.... someone should make a movie about that....

Breslow may be that smart, creative GM but if the owners are tying one of his arms behind his back, he’s not going to be able to use his intelligence and creativity to its fullest.

C’mon. Since 1880, money IS the only thing. The Yankees aren’t the Yankees (their full history) because generations of players love Broadway. It’s because the Yanms have the cash to sign players and in the last 50 years they have the money to pay their players.

Every once in awhile a scrappy underdog sneaks into the World Series and we all wonder, “is this the year that spending less will get you more?” and more often than not the answer is no. Further more that team falls back to the pack while the higher spending team continues to win.

The movie you’re thinking about is “Eight Men Out”, the dramatic version of “Major Leagues”.

At least Angel fans got to experience Trout and Ohtani as individual performers. We're going to be just as mediocre but with that, at least until the franchise saviors in the minors start showing up in a few more years.

I think it’s interactive when people use the Angels as a crap team. Yeah, they haven’t had a lot of success but for four years their fans have been able to watch modern day Tungsten Arm O’Doyles Ohtani and Trout play every day.

That’s a gift. And at least they got that, it reminded me of the late 90s when we had Nomar and Pedro. Those were fun ass teams because of those guys.

Now we’re in the same boat with Angels fans only we get to watch the dreck that FSG puts on the field. “Think Yoshida will ground out to second or first this at bat?” “I sure hope Crawford makes it out of the fourth inning.”

Catch the excitement!

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

If Casas and Mayer and so on can deliver over the next 5-7 years to Mookie's level.....I'm down with that.

Really? You want to do this all over again in seven years?

This sucks.

 

[OCD SS]

$300m each? Just money?

There are limits. Even for billionaires.

Just money, as opposed to trading assets for a pitcher.

Come on dude, use at least a little bit of critical thinking here.

… too which I’ll add that no one has suggested that either of their markets are this high.

 

[chawson]

My statement is that Soler and the 2 SP's are still free agents so you can sign them. The 2 SPs are both short and long-term answers because you'd be signing them to longer-term contracts but also can get you better in the short term. Not that hard to figure out.

Soler would add much-needed right handed power for a couple years to the lineup and can play both DH and OF if need be.

I hope they sign Soler too. But what if the front office has identified that they want to sign Juan Soto, a guy who grew up dreaming of playing for the Red Sox, next year? Not a lot of room for Yoshida, Soler, and Soto on the same team.

I suppose you could trade Soler or Yoshida, but trading a guy so soon after signing him doesn't endear us to free agents in the future. And since there's a glut of DH types (Soler, Hoskins, Turner, Martinez, Pederson, Hicks, Winker, Choi, Belt, Sanchez, Meadows, Cooper, Duvall, Cron) and a few other trade candidates (Jimenez, Polanco, Bell, France, India, J.D. Davis, Conforto, probably more), it doesn't seem like a terrible move to wait.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I hope they sign Soler too. But what if the front office has identified that they want to sign Juan Soto, a guy who grew up dreaming of playing for the Red Sox, next year? Not a lot of room for Yoshida, Soler, and Soto on the same team.

I suppose you could trade Soler or Yoshida, but trading a guy so soon after signing him doesn't endear us to free agents in the future. And since there's a glut of DH types (Soler, Hoskins, Turner, Martinez, Pederson, Hicks, Winker, Choi, Belt, Sanchez, Meadows, Cooper, Duvall, Cron) and a few other trade candidates (Jimenez, Polanco, France, India, J.D. Davis, Conforto, probably more), it doesn't seem like a terrible move to wait.

You could also trade Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. When it comes to a star like Soto, you sign him and figure out the rest later.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

No one's arguing that their hands are tied. I think the question is Before getting mad, will you please name the player you want them to sign who'd be appreciably better than the young incumbent player we currently have in the same position?

Replace the fifth starter with Montgomery and yeah, that's an upgrade. Replace the fifth starter (Houck, say) with Seth Lugo to the tune of three-years, $50 million, and I'm not sure that helps, unless it means the incumbent starter is moved in a trade, etc. etc.

What you don't seem to be addressing, ever, is that this issue that has finally come to the point of needing to be acknowledged started a few years ago. They traded away Mookie Betts and have not made efforts to field a serious team since. They are in this spot where they have a thoroughly mediocre roster and are in a market where the options aren't great and the trade field is overpriced or dead. That is all their doing. You can zoom in and explain away this non-move or that non-move and shrug and hope Juan Soto growing up a Red Sox fan means absolutely anything and that for sure we're going to do something big right around that next corner, but the things they admitted to yesterday have been going on for years. And its showed.

The time to get mad was 2/10/20. I genuinely do not get why you're doing this lifting for them, they're putting a crappy product on the field and promising you something that isn't coming and you're buying it. Sure you can isolate and make a case for why someone would do/ not do any given move, but the team's approach and philosophy has been to take you for granted and try to pass a cheap thing off as innovative and you're letting them do it.

Now they're saying it to your face! I have no judgement at all for someone who says "I don't care, I love baseball and this is my team and I'm just going to follow them and try to understand what they're doing with the lay of the land they've set out" but denying its a thing and trying to get us all to see the light is absurd. It is getting quite dark, man.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I hope they sign Soler too. But what if the front office has identified that they want to sign Juan Soto, a guy who grew up dreaming of playing for the Red Sox, next year? Not a lot of room for Yoshida, Soler, and Soto on the same team.

You heard/read what these guys said yesterday, right? They won’t be within a million miles of Soto next year.

I mean cmon.

 

[CR67dream]

The movie you’re thinking about is “Eight Men Out”, the dramatic version of “Major Leagues”.

I added the s for grammatical purposes. And Eight Men Out was great.

You know I get you, and I'm lamenting what I'm seeing too, but on the field, all is not lost. People are acting like we're the A's. As far as it goes, I think a scrappy team with a lot to prove makes for a fun season, and these days as often as not that kind of team can be a blast to watch, and compete at a high level.


I hate, hate, hate that the Sox won't give us more than that, it sucks and it stinks and it sucks, and nothing you write is an unreasonable read. But I can't change that. For me, now that I know what it's gonna be, I will try to turn my major focus away from the idiots in the ownership group to Breslow and down to what it looks like on the field. As is always true for everyone, YMMV. For me, Cumby said it best:

"What is this who's in and who's out sh*t? Whoever said it was a choice? There is no choice. Enjoy the ride, and try not to puke on your shoes when it stops."-----CumberlandBlues

I don't go to games. I don't buy gear. The extent of my investment is NESN which I get through my FUBO. And my time, of course, but most nights it's mostly background, and I'll never hate baseball as a backdrop. If they're good, I'll watch more and pay closer attention, and if it's an absolute disaster (which I believe is doubtful) I will tune out and come here and express how right you were all along. Such is the way.

I'm just ready to have some fun with actual baseball again.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I added the s for grammatical purposes. And Eight Men Out was great.

You know I get you, and I'm lamenting what I'm seeing too, but on the field, all is not lost. People are acting like we're the A's. As far as it goes, I think a scrappy team with a lot to prove makes for a fun season, and these days as often as not that kind of team can be a blast to watch, and compete at a high level.


I hate, hate, hate that the Sox won't give us more than that, it sucks and it stinks and it sucks, and nothing you write is an unreasonable read. But I can't change that. For me, now that I know what it's gonna be, I will try to turn my major focus away from the idiots in the ownership group to Breslow and down to what it looks like on the field. As is always true for everyone, YMMV. For me, Cumby said it best:

"What is this who's in and who's out sh*t? Whoever said it was a choice? There is no choice. Enjoy the ride, and try not to puke on your shoes when it stops."-----CumberlandBlues

I don't go to games. I don't buy gear. The extent of my investment is NESN which I get through my FUBO. And my time, of course, but most nights it's mostly background, and I'll never hate baseball as a backdrop. If they're good, I'll watch more and pay closer attention, and if it's an absolute disaster (which I believe is doubtful) I will tune out and come here and express how right you were all along. Such is the way.

I'm just ready to have some fun with actual baseball again.

I guess I don't look at me continuing to follow, watch, or go to Sox games as enabling the owners, as terrible as they have been at stewarding this team in the last 5 years. I do it because I enjoy it. The Sox are in my blood. Spring training is still a time of hope after a long northeast winter. I love following young players from prospect status to seeing them make their MLB debut. I have a couple old broken in/worn out Sox caps that I hold onto, but don't spend anything on new merchandise because i have enough clothes. I cut the cord and went to You Tube TV, but i'll still subscribe to NESN360 during the season because I love baseball, even if its in the background on my outdoor speakers. I still love the fact that you can tune in a baseball game and see something you've never seen before. I still enjoy trhe cat and mouse game between hitter and pitcher, pitch to pitch. I love the newer rules where speed is valuable again and the games move at a better pace. I still like seeing a guy build on his stat line over a season. I still try to catch at least a game a year at Fenway, and there are affordable tickets on the secondary market. I don't even think about the ownership group when I do any of these things. I do it because it still makes me happy. I still love baseball and following the Red Sox, flaws and all.

 

[GPO Man]

You could also trade Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. When it comes to a star like Soto, you sign him and figure out the rest later.

There’s no way we outbid MFY for Soto next year.

 

[jbupstate]

So because Rodon and deGrom got hurt you don't go after Blake Snell? That's a weak argument. Believe me, the Red Sox would be just fine long-term financially if Snell doesn't live up to the billing. Go look at the money committed to the team in the next few years.

Just money, as opposed to trading assets for a pitcher.

Come on dude, use at least a little bit of critical thinking here.

I’m fine making the investment in Montgomery.

Snell information -

- walks a ton equals less innings. To win, This team needs an investment in large quality innings
- in 8 seasons has pitched more than 130 innings only twice. A large investment should require a reasonable projection of 175+ quality innings
- 31 years old and history shows he doesn’t stay healthy
- has rebuffed the Yankees and appears to prefer west coast
- numerous reports have a demand of $240m

To win this contract… How much should the Sox spend? It’s reasonable to think and history tells us this is going to be a bad contract. A fifth place team investing a ton in a pitcher that doesn’t stay healthy and doesn’t pitch 6 innings might lead to more of the same.

To add on… now that we know the owners don’t want to spend… don’t they need to place stronger bets?

 

[8slim]

I think that was Tom Werner, who has managed to make a complete ass out of himself every time he’s opened his mouth

My bad.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I hate that Monty and Snell have the same agent.

It makes it really easy for Boras because if there is a team that has set a floor that he thinks will still be there, he doesn’t have to worry about the team that he has on the hook swooping in on the other guy. He will know.

So if he is sitting on $x, he really can wait out team like the Red Sox to see if they will go >$x, because he knows threats to go another direction are largely hot air since he has both of the big 2.

 

[chawson]

What you don't seem to be addressing, ever, is that this issue that has finally come to the point of needing to be acknowledged started a few years ago. They traded away Mookie Betts and have not made efforts to field a serious team since. They are in this spot where they have a thoroughly mediocre roster and are in a market where the options aren't great and the trade field is overpriced or dead. That is all their doing. You can zoom in and explain away this non-move or that non-move and shrug and hope Juan Soto growing up a Red Sox fan means absolutely anything and that for sure we're going to do something big right around that next corner, but the things they admitted to yesterday have been going on for years. And its showed.

The time to get mad was 2/10/20. I genuinely do not get why you're doing this lifting for them, they're putting a crappy product on the field and promising you something that isn't coming and you're buying it. Sure you can isolate and make a case for why someone would do/ not do any given move, but the team's approach and philosophy has been to take you for granted and try to pass a cheap thing off as innovative and you're letting them do it.

Now they're saying it to your face! I have no judgement at all for someone who says "I don't care, I love baseball and this is my team and I'm just going to follow them and try to understand what they're doing with the lay of the land they've set out" but denying its a thing and trying to get us all to see the light is absurd. It is getting quite dark, man.

I certainly do agree that the anger people are feeling this winter is connected to Mookie Betts. What most people do not address, ever, is the possibility that Mookie Betts did not want to play here for reasons that Red Sox fans do not want to talk about.

I get that there's frustration. I've been frustrated. I also genuinely think that things have simply not broken right the last couple seasons, mostly due to injuries. Both years, our team were caught in the middle at the trade deadline, at roughly one-in-three odds, while several would-be trade chips were injured. There's more to it than that (Dalbec's flop, Barnes' complete unraveling, Kluber's pumpkining, the failed development of Downs, Groome, Mata), and I would have done a few things differently, but I don't think the 2022-23 teams were especially crappy. They were developing players at the major league level and building assets, because the team had almost none of them in 2019.

You heard/read what these guys said yesterday, right? They won’t be within a million miles of Soto next year.

I mean cmon.

I mean, we'll see. I'm not sure why it's so difficult to read the full range of statements and evidence on this. Why is there such insistence on collapsing all context except for the single solitary phrase that makes people mad?

Kennedy said probably, we don't know for sure, we don't talk about specific payroll numbers. Several members of the FO/ownership have said that they plan to acquire expensive free agents, and tried for some this year, but it didn't work out.

This is a story because Masslive made it a story. They've been hammering it just about daily, surely with some ammunition from Scott Boras. I'm seeing no evidence of a new spending policy. There's no evidence of a sustained lower payroll budget indexed to the CBT relative to previous years. I'm just seeing hyperattunement to the payroll as a lynchpin for fan frustration. I see three good baseball trades (Sale, Urias, Verdugo) that lowered payroll, and I see a small handful of pitchers (Nola, Gray, E-Rod, Imanaga, Lugo, Stroman) that we didn't sign for what are, to me, really understandable reasons. The fact that we didn't sign any of those guys isn't proof that they're lying to us, or that there's some conspiratorial new policy shift that they're hiding.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I’m fine making the investment in Montgomery.

Snell information -

- walks a ton equals less innings. To win, This team needs an investment in large quality innings
- in 8 seasons has pitched more than 130 innings only twice. A large investment should require a reasonable projection of 175+ quality innings
- 31 years old and history shows he doesn’t stay healthy
- has rebuffed the Yankees and appears to prefer west coast
- numerous reports have a demand of $240m

To win this contract… How much should the Sox spend? It’s reasonable and history tells us this is going to be a bad contract.

Let's look at the last 4 years. 2020 was the COVID year so he made 11 starts. 2021 he struggled with walks but did make 27 starts. He only had 2 instances where he missed time. One was due to food poisoning and the other was in September he had an adductor issue. August and his first start of September were really good for him going 7 or more innings three times and only giving up 7 ER in the month. 2022 he was behind everyone building up innings in ST then had another adductor flare up. Once he got back in May, he struggled his first 7 starts but was mostly good in July and boom or bust the rest of the year. After July 1st, he had 13 starts of giving up 1 run or less but 3 starts in where he gave up 5 runs or more. They also went to a 6-man rotation so he ended up only making 24 starts but ended the year with a 2.80 FIP. In 2023, he struggled a bit in April but then was lights out the rest of the year and made 32 starts on his way to the Cy Young Award.

In conclusion, based on the last year and a half of work I would firmly believe in taking the risk in signing Blake Snell to a big money deal. I would be willing to do a 6 year deal anywhere between $180-$210 million for Snell with deferrals included and also include a vesting option based on innings pitched/games started that tacks on a 7th year. Deferring money into future years would lower the AAV of this deal so the team could continue to build the roster. It certainly will not hurt them on the long-term payroll either. They only have 4 players on the 2025 payroll making $18 million or more(1 is a player option in Giolito) and only 3 players making this much through 2027.

 

[moondog80]

This is a story because Masslive made it a story.

Bullshit.

This is a story because the starting pitching absolutely sucked last year, and despite bombastic proclamations on how this year would be different, despite Kennedy saying specifically that the starting pitching wasn’t good enough, they are bringing back nearly the same exact staff, while being 30 million dollars below the tax with extremely high ticket prices that are going up.

That’s why this is a story. It’s not because of the media.

 

[jbupstate]

$180-$210 million for Snell

Agree to agree on that price! I think Snell gets his pick of teams with all those conditions.

I don’t agree with blank checks on this crop of players or this current team… Devers was one because he’s homegrown and worth the risk… Sales extension was not of course.

Side note. Snell throws a ton of pitches and strikes out batters. But the walks could turn very ugly with our defense.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I mean, we'll see. I'm not sure why it's so difficult to read the full range of statements and evidence on this. Why is there such insistence on collapsing all context except for the single solitary phrase that makes people mad?

Kennedy said probably, we don't know for sure, we don't talk about specific payroll numbers. Several members of the FO/ownership have said that they plan to acquire expensive free agents, and tried for some this year, but it didn't work out.

This is a story because Masslive made it a story. They've been hammering it just about daily, surely with some ammunition from Scott Boras. I'm seeing no evidence of a new spending policy. There's no evidence of a sustained lower payroll budget indexed to the CBT relative to previous years. I'm just seeing hyperattunement to the payroll as a lynchpin for fan frustration. I see three good baseball trades (Sale, Urias, Verdugo) that lowered payroll, and I see a small handful of pitchers (Nola, Gray, E-Rod, Imanaga, Lugo, Stroman) that we didn't sign for what are, to me, really understandable reasons. The fact that we didn't sign any of those guys isn't proof that they're lying to us, or that there's some conspiratorial new policy shift that they're hiding.

MassLive did not make this story up. The Globe and Athletic beat writers have been writing about this for weeks. National writers have been writing about it too. The owners themselves have said it.

I mean I’m not here to try and make you look at the dark cloud but at some point you have to look at the evidence and realize that the Sox of 2003-18 aren’t here any more. And there’s no reason to believe that they’re coming back any time soon. Especially since Gammons said that FSG suffered “heavy losses” in other areas of their business.

As far as Soto goes, I’m not basing my prediction on the last three months but on the last five offseasons. When was the last time the Red Sox signed a high price free agent? Soto isn’t going to take a discounted, trombone contract like Story did. Nor is he going to take a two-year deal like the contracts that they’ve been giving out to the guys they signed

Would I love to be wrong? Of course! Do I think I’m going to be wrong about Soto and where he’s playing in 2025? No way.

As far as the pitchers you listed, there’s no conspiracy. They didn’t sign them because they didn’t come close to offering what the pitchers ended up getting. It’s that simple. Most free agent transactions are about money. It’s always, always, always about the money.

 

[chawson]

Bullshit.

This is a story because the starting pitching absolutely sucked last year, and despite bombastic proclamations on how this year would be different, despite Kennedy saying specifically that the starting pitching wasn’t good enough, they are bringing back nearly the same exact staff, while being 30 million dollars below the tax with extremely high ticket prices that are going up.

That’s why this is a story. It’s not because of the media.

As a team, Red Sox starting pitchers put up a 4.08 xFIP. That's 8th of 30 teams. If someone were to cherrypick and remove Kluber's starts and count Pivetta's excellent work as a bulk reliever, it's surely even better.

The defense was very bad. Putting Kiké at shortstop was a mistake.

As someone helpfully posted in the What We Have thread, Boston plays as an extreme hitters' park, which may be affecting people's perception of how our pitchers fare.

View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1748813593821196321?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


Tweet from @ggeiss_mlb
4:03 pm, 1/20/24

Just finished chatting with Andrew Bailey.

Very well spoken. When I asked him about the rotation, he said, “I know a lot of people have opinions on it. [There is] a lot of untapped talent.”

He finished by saying he can’t wait to work with them in less than a month.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

As far as Soto goes, I’m not basing my prediction on the last three months but on the last five offseasons. When was the last time the Red Sox signed a high price free agent? Soto isn’t going to take a discounted, trombone contract like Story did. Nor is he going to take a two-year deal like the contracts that they’ve been giving out to the guys they signed

And Soto has been moved twice in the last 18 months for prospects packages that haven't been earth shattering. There is zero evidence that the Sox had the slightest interest in him either time.

A year from now, when Soto has resigned with the Yankees while we sign Michael Conforto to a one year deal, the ownership apologists will claim the we are saving our dollars for Vlad Guerrero Jr. in 2026.

 

[Auger34]

This is a story because Masslive made it a story.

This is such an insane view of this whole situation, I really can’t believe that you actually believe it. I understand you have a weird vendetta against massive and Cotillo specifically but come on.

This is a story because ownership talked about going full throttle and wanting to spend money when Breslow was hired, specifically on the pitching. It’s a story because they basically haven’t spoke since then and are now singing a completely different tune. Its not some media creation, its looking at what ownership has said on the record

 

[simplicio]

And Soto has been moved twice in the last 18 months for prospects packages that haven't been earth shattering. There is zero evidence that the Sox had the slightest interest in him either time.

Why on earth would it have made sense to strip the farm for Soto either at the 2022 deadline or this winter (when the Padres wanted pitching that we didn't even have to trade anyway)?

 

[chawson]

This is a story because ownership talked about going full throttle and wanting to spend money when Breslow was hired, specifically on the pitching. It’s a story because they basically haven’t spoke since then and are now singing a completely different tune. Its not some media creation, its looking at what ownership has said on the record

Cool story, man. Who specifically are you mad about the Red Sox not signing? Because we did sign the eighth-highest ranked starter and there's plenty of offseason left for acquisitions.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

What most people do not address, ever, is the possibility that Mookie Betts did not want to play here for reasons that Red Sox fans do not want to talk about.

This is not a factual statement in any form. We don't know what all the parties true intentions were around that situation (and we really do not need to rehash) but you are stating the possibility as if it was well known and discussed. It was not - its been put forth at various points by people who are biased in a particular direction. And maybe unwittingly repeating an ownership talking point in the process.

Also, you keep citing FAs who are unattainable because they don't want to come to Boston. This fails to contemplate that people acquire talent all the time, including people who are resistant to change, by paying them for it.

I know it bothers folks who don't want to believe it but most people have a price. I am sorry that the price in Boston may be higher than in LA but that appears to be reality. You either adjust to that reality by paying up for the talent you want or deciding not to participate. Its pretty clear what path FSG has chosen. You can disagree on that part but please stop putting forth thinly supported statements that the Sox can't really convince unwilling FAs to come to Boston. Companies get people to move to undesirable locales each and every day - by paying them for it.

 

[gibreel]

The past 24 hours have convinced me that several people use this board to bolster their job applications for the Red Sox. I’m not being snarky—it’s the only charitable explanation for a lot of the reasoning on display.

 

[simplicio]

The past 24 hours have convinced me that several people use this board to bolster their job applications for the Red Sox. I’m not being snarky—it’s the only charitable explanation for a lot of the reasoning on display.

Come on, do better than that please. People are allowed to feel and think what they want even if you disagree with it.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

And Soto has been moved twice in the last 18 months for prospects packages that haven't been earth shattering.

I think the prospect package in the first Soto deal was pretty earth shattering (the Padres also got Josh Bell). San Diego traded MacKenzie Gore (former #2 overall prospect), CJ Abrams (#11), Robert Hassell (#41), James Wood (#66), and Jarlin Santana (unranked). The Sox equivalent would be all of ATM, Bello, and someone like Monegro. That would be a pretty insane price to pay given where the Sox were at the 2022 deadline and today.

 

[moondog80]

I think the prospect package in the first Soto deal was pretty earth shattering (the Padres also got Josh Bell). San Diego traded MacKenzie Gore (former #2 overall prospect), CJ Abrams (#11), Robert Hassell (#41), James Wood (#66), and Jarlin Santana (unranked). The Sox equivalent would be all of ATM, Bello, and someone like Monegro. That would be a pretty insane price to pay given where the Sox were at the 2022 deadline and today.

Indeed. Last season Abrams had a WAR of 3.4 and Gore was 2.0.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Indeed. Last season Abrams had a WAR of 3.4 and Gore was 2.0.

And Wood is now the #7 prospect in baseball per MLB.com while Hassell has fallen off a bit due to a poor season. It was a pretty great trade for the Nationals.

 

[chawson]

This is not a factual statement in any form. We don't know what all the parties true intentions were around that situation (and we really do not need to rehash) but you are stating the possibility as if it was well known and discussed. It was not - it's been put forth at various points by people who are biased in a particular direction. And maybe unwittingly repeating an ownership talking point in the process.

What bias are you insinuating I have here?

Also, you keep citing FAs who are unattainable because they don't want to come to Boston. This fails to contemplate that people acquire talent all the time, including people who are resistant to change, by paying them for it.

I know it bothers folks who don't want to believe it but most people have a price. I am sorry that the price in Boston may be higher than in LA but that appears to be reality. You either adjust to that reality by paying up for the talent you want or deciding not to participate. Its pretty clear what path FSG has chosen. You can disagree on that part but please stop putting forth thinly supported statements that the Sox can't really convince unwilling FAs to come to Boston. Companies get people to move to undesirable locales each and every day - by paying them for it.

As far as the pitchers you listed, there’s no conspiracy. They didn’t sign them because they didn’t come close to offering what the pitchers ended up getting. It’s that simple. Most free agent transactions are about money. It’s always, always, always about the money.

I've certainly contemplated it, and it's not true. It's not universally true, that is.

I've posted before that this is an irreconcilable philosophical difference that makes this board's argument interminable. You're not going to convince me that money is the only factor, all or most other things being equal. It's a significant one, but it's not the only one.

But even those for whom money is the most important thing, is the contract the only factor? Would Mookie Betts have had the same opportunities to start a film, TV, and podcast production company in Boston? That certainly has a monetary value. Would he have had the same kind of role as a Black ambassador to the sport that he's embraced in Los Angeles? That's probably got licensing and commercial opportunities too, along with being aligned with his social values.

I'm not saying that the Sox can never convince free agents to come to Boston. What I'm saying is that it's not always possible to convince free agents to come to Boston, if the money is comparable elsewhere.

If you wanna split hairs, then sure, it's probably literally true that everyone has a price. I'm sure Yamamoto would have considered Boston if we'd offered him Ohtani's contract, complete with ownership shares in 2043. And It's not my money, so yeah, I'd prefer them to have a $350 million payroll (I voted >$270 million in that payroll poll thread). But there's a gray area. There's a point at which it makes bad sense for roster construction within the rules of the sport. I'd think a fan base that watched us run Sale, Price, Sandoval, Hanley, Lackey, Gonzalez, Crawford, Castillo, and Manny out of town would be able to consider those factors.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

What bias are you insinuating I have here?




I've certainly contemplated it, and it's not true. It's not universally true, that is.

I've posted before that this is an irreconcilable philosophical difference that makes this board's argument interminable. You're not going to convince me that money is the only factor, all or most other things being equal. It's a significant one, but it's not the only one.

But even those for whom money is the most important thing, is the contract the only factor? Would Mookie Betts have had the same opportunities to start a film, TV, and podcast production company in Boston? That certainly has a monetary value. Would he have had the same kind of role as a Black ambassador to the sport that he's embraced in Los Angeles? That's probably got licensing and commercial opportunities too, along with being aligned with his social values.

I'm not saying that the Sox can never convince free agents to come to Boston. What I'm saying is that it's not always possible to convince free agents to come to Boston, if the money is comparable elsewhere.

If you wanna split hairs, then sure, it's probably literally true that everyone has a price. I'm sure Yamamoto would have considered Boston if we'd offered him Ohtani's contract, complete with ownership shares in 2043. And It's not my money, so yeah, I'd prefer them to have a $350 million payroll (I voted >$270 million in that payroll poll thread). But there's a gray area. There's a point at which it makes bad sense for roster construction within the rules of the sport. I'd think a fan base that watched us run Sale, Price, Sandoval, Hanley, Lackey, Gonzalez, Crawford, Castillo, and Manny out of town would be able to consider those factors.

I really think we are talking past one another. If a free agent prefers one locale to another its typically because of the advantages that spot provides. What you are arguing is that in those instances, money isn't going to get it done and perhaps that's true but we have zero basis - and that includes you as well - to think that was the case with Betts. Except for some reason you want to choose to believe that this is what happened. I would point out that this narrative clearly favors one party to that transaction. In fact, most narratives here seem to be almost Sox PR talking points.

Finally, your posts keep going to weird outcomes - like the Sox offering YY Ohtani's contract - complete with ownership shares. Who has suggested that? Its hard to keep giving you the benefit of the doubt if you are mischaracterizing others posts and suggesting that those of us who want ownership to invest in talent really just want to go pay top of the market for some flawed player. Nobody is saying that - like at all.

You still think FSG is a on the right path - that's great but maybe consider the other posts rather than claiming that all everyone wants is pay FAs like Snell or Montgomery or anyone else the top of their respective markets. Nobody is saying that either.

 

[allstonite]

But even those for whom money is the most important thing, is the contract the only factor? Would Mookie Betts have had the same opportunities to start a film, TV, and podcast production company in Boston?

Who is saying this?

It’s not that money is the most important thing..It’s that the team sucked last year and needed more pitching. How do you get more pitching if there’s nothing in the minors any time soon? Spending some money. The Sox ownership has money. A lot of it. Some of it mine. And they haven’t put it towards getting better pitching

 

[Cellar-Door]

Have to ask.... do we have any indication that any top FAs recently have passed on the Red Sox when they offered the most money?

For example this year, seems clear from the comments by Kennedy yesterday (and honestly the phrasing of previous comments, and lack of leaking their bid) that the Red Sox were not really competitive financially on Yamamoto. Now, maybe Yamamoto would have been all in on LA no matter what, but assuming that was why the Red Sox weren't competitive is kind of silly, because they didn't offer him the most money. Same with a bunch of other players (yes including Betts who they traded after he rejected a deal, then after the trade was offered significantly more and signed).

While it is certainly possible that players have preferences above and beyond money that might work against the Red Sox.... there isn't much evidence that has hurt them in pursuit of (or retaining) top players, it's that they are rarely the best financial offer.

 

[chawson]

I really think we are talking past one another. If a free agent prefers one locale to another its typically because of the advantages that spot provides. What you are arguing is that in those instances, money isn't going to get it done and perhaps that's true but we have zero basis - and that includes you as well - to think that was the case with Betts. Except for some reason you want to choose to believe that this is what happened. I would point out that this narrative clearly favors one party to that transaction. In fact, most narratives here seem to be almost Sox PR talking points.

Finally, your posts keep going to weird outcomes - like the Sox offering YY Ohtani's contract - complete with ownership shares. Who has suggested that? Its hard to keep giving you the benefit of the doubt if you are mischaracterizing others posts and suggesting that those of us who want ownership to invest in talent really just want to go pay top of the market for some flawed player. Nobody is saying that - like at all.

You still think FSG is a on the right path - that's great but maybe consider the other posts rather than claiming that all everyone wants is pay FAs like Snell or Montgomery or anyone else the top of their respective markets. Nobody is saying that either.

Sorry, maybe that line about Yamamoto's contract didn't read. (I wasn't saying anyone suggested that). I was trying to say — to concede — that yes, it's probably somewhat true that everyone has a price if you go to extremes. But if Yamamoto's choosing between $325M in L.A. and $375 in Boston, do we know that the difference matters to him? It's unbelievably life-changing money regardless. The marginal difference in lifestyle between such vast sums of money is beyond my ability to calculate, and it makes sense to me that there are other factors at play (like geography, environment, cultural factors).

I am not saying I know what principles or values Yamamoto or any free agent considers in weighing that decision. What I am saying is that we don't know for sure that he would choose the higher offer in those circumstances. It sounds like you're saying you do know, because it's some kind of human nature to take the money. I strongly contend that it's not that simple. That's not a Sox PR talking point, it's a basic humanistic concept.

 

[HfxBob]

Have to ask.... do we have any indication that any top FAs recently have passed on the Red Sox when they offered the most money?

For example this year, seems clear from the comments by Kennedy yesterday (and honestly the phrasing of previous comments, and lack of leaking their bid) that the Red Sox were not really competitive financially on Yamamoto. Now, maybe Yamamoto would have been all in on LA no matter what, but assuming that was why the Red Sox weren't competitive is kind of silly, because they didn't offer him the most money. Same with a bunch of other players (yes including Betts who they traded after he rejected a deal, then after the trade was offered significantly more and signed).

While it is certainly possible that players have preferences above and beyond money that might work against the Red Sox.... there isn't much evidence that has hurt them in pursuit of (or retaining) top players, it's that they are rarely the best financial offer.

That is a great question to ask, and as far as I know, there are no reports of the Red Sox being high bidder for any free agent but losing out, since...actually, I can't remember the last time it happened.

 

[Cellar-Door]

[

Sorry, maybe that line about Yamamoto's contract didn't read. (I wasn't saying anyone suggested that). I was trying to say — to concede — that yes, it's probably somewhat true that everyone has a price if you go to extremes. But if Yamamoto's choosing between $325M in L.A. and $375 in Boston, do we know that the difference matters to him? It's unbelievably life-changing money regardless. The marginal difference in lifestyle between such vast sums of money is beyond my ability to calculate, and it makes sense to me that there are other factors at play (like geography, environment, cultural factors).

I am not saying I know what principles or values Yamamoto or any free agent considers in weighing that decision. What I am saying is that we don't know for sure that he would choose the higher offer in those circumstances. It sounds like you're saying you do know, because it's some kind of human nature to take the money. I strongly contend that it's not that simple. That's not a Sox PR talking point, it's a basic humanistic concept.

This is just silly because..... HE DIDN"T GET OFFERED $375 MILLION. Why are you inventing fanfiction in which the poor Red Sox get rejected despite offering the most money, when they did not offer the most money. Is there a possibility he turns down the money.... sure, but in the real world he took the highest bid, there are few if any examples in the past we can look to where a top of the market player took less money, but an enormous amount of players who did take the most money. Creating weird hypos is pointless and adds nothing to any discussion about FA strategy.