Let's Kut to the Chase

[absintheofmalaise]

For the third straight night the Sox have had an outstanding outing from a starter. This time it was from Kutter Crawford. 84 pitches through six innings with one run thanks to a throwing error in the first, one BB, and 7 Ks. Good pitch mix. Only threw the splitter twice. Relied heavily on the sweeper. Here's his pitch chart from Baseball Savant.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I was only able to watch off and on, but holy shit, he looked really good. Like way better than I expected.

 

[Reverse Curve]

Kutter looked amazing tonight, following successive solid starts from Bello and Pivetta. I am so bullish on this pitching staff, and kind of finding it hard to control my optimism (giddiness) with the club's emphasis on pitching development. There seems to be a vision, implementation and buy in from the staff, that I have not seen in my years following the Sox.

 

[chrisfont9]

Kutter looked amazing tonight, following successive solid starts from Bello and Pivetta. I am so bullish on this pitching staff, and kind of finding it hard to control my optimism (giddiness) with the club's emphasis on pitching development. There seems to be a vision, implementation and buy in from the staff, that I have not seen in my years following the Sox.

The instant results are great. The proof will be in durability. TBD…

 

[Reverse Curve]

The instant results are great. The proof will be in durability. TBD…

Yep, TBD for sure. I do think that the emphasis on selective, off-speed stuff will contribute to durability in the long run.

 

[Hendu Candu]

The problem will be if one or more of them are arrested for hiring a hit man to eliminate Joely Rodriguez ...

 

[bernie carb 33]

Really good pitching first three days, you couldn't have imagined this a week ago. But with your best hitter not healthy, where is the offense gonna come from? Great pitching by Seattle. We can't get to Oakland and LA soon enough to get the bats in rhythm.

O'Neill off to a good start, but I was surprised to see him platooned so early. can't recall if he's nursing an injury or whether his lefty-righty splits are that off.
'

 

[YTF]

@bernie carb 33 Cora likely saw it as a good spot to sit O'Neill. There was a stretch from March 14-26 where he didn't play in the field due to calf tightness and considering they play seven straight games before they see a day off it's likely O'Neill was going to sit one or two of them. Being able to play all 3 OF positions, I expect we might see O'Neill rotating through those slots in the next couple of days to give Duran and Rafaela days of during this stretch with Abreu getting a couple more starts in RF.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Last night Crawford was pitching well until he wasn't, and became the first starter to not make it through the fifth inning. Going into the fifth with a 4-0 lead he promptly walked Sano on 4 pitches. K 'd Moniak. O'Hoppe singled and Neto flied out. He then walked Rendon on 5 pitches and Schanuel on 4 to load the bases. He just couldn't find the zone at all. Weissert then came in and got the last out.

He changed up his pitch mix from the first game when his 4 seam was third in the mix and he relied more on the sweeper and cutter. From Baseball Savant. Obviously much more effective against Seattle than the Angels. Not sure if that was because he didn't have the feel for the breaking pitches as much or if they decided to change his pitch mix so the Angels wouldn't be able to rely on the scouting reports from the first game as much.
Last night

First game

 

[Rovin Romine]

SSS, but per Savant, his cutter is his least effective pitch in terms of batted ball outcomes.

In many ways game #2 was more like his average 2023 game: 40% FB4, just under 30% cutters, the rest assorted breaking. Here the sweeper appears to be the go-to breaking pitch.

I have to wonder if part of the key to going deepr into games is to throw fewer 94/95 MPH fastballs.

 

[geoflin]

Anyone know of any studies about injury risk for short arm pitchers like Crawford? Looks like it might be easier on shoulder but harder on elbow.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I was listening earlier and Castiglione said something about Kutter possibly hurting himself on the final out. Please tell me this didn't happen.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

I was listening earlier and Castiglione said something about Kutter possibly hurting himself on the final out. Please tell me this didn't happen.

TV broadcast said he turned his ankle a bit. Didn't seem too bad but I guess you never know.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

TV broadcast said he turned his ankle a bit. Didn't seem too bad but I guess you never know.

Good injury news for a change-- they will only have to amputate one of his legs!

(Whoops, just making a lame joke because I thought this was the game thread, sorry about that!)

Crawford looked good most of the time out there, but seemed to just lose his control for stretches of his last 2 innings. Like his last inning in Anaheim, when he suddenly couldn't throw a strike.
This time he escaped both jams-- with a little help from the home plate ump in one of them.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I was listening earlier and Castiglione said something about Kutter possibly hurting himself on the final out. Please tell me this didn't happen.

His ankle rolled a little bit, but he walked off the field fine.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Good injury news for a change-- they will only have to amputate one of his legs!

(Whoops, just making a lame joke because I thought this was the game thread, sorry about that!)

Crawford looked good most of the time out there, but seemed to just lose his control for stretches of his last 2 innings. Like his last inning in Anaheim, when he suddenly couldn't throw a strike.
This time he escaped both jams-- with a little help from the home plate ump in one of them.

If this was intentional, then well done.

 

[soxhop411]

Lowest ERA through first 5 starts of the season (Red Sox in the Live Ball Era):

0.21 – Lefty Grove (1936)
0.60 – Dave Ferriss (1945)
0.66 – KUTTER CRAWFORD (2024)
0.66 – Roger Clemens (1991)
1.12 – Tim Wakefield (1995)
View: https://twitter.com/soxnotes/status/1781803485425483787?s=46

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Noteworthy about Dave Ferriss...those were the first five starts of his MLB career. All complete game wins.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Noteworthy about Dave Ferriss...those were the first five starts of his MLB career. All complete game wins.

Ferris did it in a war year though, when a lot of great/good opposing hitters were not playing like Joe D, Bill Dickey, Joe Gordon, Hank Greenberg and many more.

OTOH, Ferris didn’t have his good defenders behind him like Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr, Johnny Pesky and others, and of course Ted Williams’ bat.

 

[TomRicardo]

Kutter has been a legitimate top of the rotation starter. His Cutter, Sweeper, and Split Finger are all extremely positive value pitches. His four seam fastball (which like everyone on the Red Sox he is throwing less) is not getting the whiffs it did last year but still isn't being lit up.

This is trending from last year.

 

[plolli]

And if Houck goes six innings without giving up an earned run on Tuesday, he'd slot in at #5 on the lowest ERA list.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Nice article in the Athletic about what Crawford has been doing differently this season:
https://theathletic.com/5478175/2024/05/08/mlb-scouting-notebook-kutter-crawfords-breakout-andy-pages-swing-decisions-and-more/

What stands out to me the most is his adjusted game plan against right-handed hitters. Crawford has made three major changes against righties this season:

• Changed the location of his cutter
• Dropped his gyro-slider in favor of his sweeper
• Stopped throwing his curveball

Kutter's cutter is a little different this year:

This season, he’s started throwing the cutter lower, outer half more frequently and eliminated the slider.
The change in the cutter’s location may be due to the cutter’s above average depth. Pitches with depth often work better lower half or below the zone to prevent hitters from launching them.

No more slide piece or curves vs. RHH so far this year:

Vs RHH	2023 Usage:	2024 Usage:
Sweeper	12%	33%
Cutter	30%	33%
Four-seam	36%	30%
Slider	11%	—
Curveball	10%	—

The biggest improvement in results so far from these three changes is that Crawford’s overall hard-hit rate has decreased 10% from that of his career average. His now 26% hard-hit rate puts him in the top 5% of the league.

Lots of other good stuff in the article-- heat maps, chartsengrafs, etc. if you like that type of thing.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Another good article on Kutter, this time from Speier in the Glob:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/23/sports/red-sox-kutter-crawford-delivery-pitching-motion/

Crawford calls his pitching motion a little chicken wing.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1gfAStPNlU

Speier tries to describe Crawford's motion.

While pitching deliveries typically offer something akin to a unique fingerprint, Kutter Crawford’s throwing motion deserves its own designation. What to call it?
“I call it this little chicken wing kind of thing,” Crawford said sheepishly.
Not good enough.
After all, the way that Crawford fires the ball generates both a confounding look for hitters and seemingly considerable power to his pitches. When he winds, he raises his bare hand in his glove to his face, then draws his right hand back just a few inches behind his ear before unleashing a mix of cutters, four-seamers, sweepers, and splitters from his compact motion.
Crawford looks like a boxer cocking his arm for a punch, an archer drawing the string of his bow. Thought of another way, the short arm action with the way his hand clamps the ball in some ways resembles the compact, clawing arms of a Jurassic World-style raptor.

He sometimes hits his own neck when pitching:

“There’s times where I do think it gets too short. There’s times where I feel my hand hit my neck. It’s insane. But it’s just something that kind of happened. I had no intention of making my arm path that short.
“I see myself throwing now and I’m like, ‘I don’t know how that happened.’ It’s kind of weird. But it’s working.”

Is his unusual motion helping him stay healthier?

With the more compact delivery, Crawford found that his body, especially his shoulder, rebounded more easily from starts. Given all of that progress, the Sox weren’t going to question what was happening with his delivery.
“Honestly, ever since I’ve gone shorter, I haven’t really had a whole lot of issues with [the shoulder] — knock on wood,” said Crawford. “I don’t know if it’s a little bit more efficient for the timing and sequencing of my body and everything. Maybe my body’s a little bit more receptive of that and more efficient.

Giolito is a fan of Crawford and his little wing.

Giolito can relate — to a point. He struggled early in his career, overhauled his mechanics after the 2018 season, and emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2019-21.
“It changed my career,” said Giolito. “The feedback from hitters is they’re not really seeing the ball until it’s coming out. It gets on you. He’s doing the same exact thing.
“I’m envious of him because he’s able to cut the ball, which I’m not able to do. He’s got the sweeper and the cutter and then he’s got his split-change. The stuff is magnificent. And then just adding that little hitch in there to hide the ball, it’s super-effective.”

Chicken wing or Raptor?

Crawford isn’t about to retreat from what he does. But he’ll have to start accepting that his motion deserves a more formidable title than “this little chicken wing kind of thing.”
“‘The Raptor’ is definitely [more impressive] than that,” he acknowledged.

Could also call it a Foulke.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

His delivery is almost like your ideal tennis serve where you're not extending your full arm back, but from the shoulder it appears more like a javelin thrower but it does put a lot of stress on the elbow.... (hence the classic pain named after the sport). Sort of looks like a check mark ✓ if you can imagine the check more horizontally set and his body centered there. You get natural pronation in the wrist as the back arm begins it's forward motion. It seems counterintuitive in a way, as a fully extended arm would create more extension and velocity as it comes around the rotation, and obviously in tennis, the racket is the part of the "body" that picks up that rotational force so I can see why it hasn't been implemented in baseball as a style of throwing. But if he's on to something......

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The 2 out walk really killed him last night. Obviously the GSHR after that but get that out and give up the HR the following inning and it’s a different story completely.

 

[BaseballJones]

Kutter, first 8 games: 46.1 ip (5.2 ip/g), 1.75 era, 1.08 whip, 8.9 k/9, .206/.277/.277/.553, .268 babip
Kutter, last 4 games: 22.0 ip (5.2 ip/g), 6.55 era, 1.41 whip, 8.2 k/9, .279/.340/.465/.805, .323 babip

Time to right the ship, Mr. Crawford.

 

[Jason Bae]

He wasn't going to sustain the low home run rate forever, and his HR/FB rate is still sitting at 5.6%. He does have the 5th best IFFB% rate among qualified starters, so that helps. FWIW his ERA matches his FIP (3.29), while his xFIP sits at 4.18.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Kutter, first 8 games: 46.1 ip (5.2 ip/g), 1.75 era, 1.08 whip, 8.9 k/9, .206/.277/.277/.553, .268 babip
Kutter, last 4 games: 22.0 ip (5.2 ip/g), 6.55 era, 1.41 whip, 8.2 k/9, .279/.340/.465/.805, .323 babip

Time to right the ship, Mr. Crawford.

His K rate is down slightly (8.9 v 8.2), his BB rate is even (2.9 in each span), and his HR rate has tripled. See @Jason Bae 's post for that last part.

Another note, his BB rate is even, but his HBP rate has doubled, so his BB+HBP/9 went from 3.3 to 3.7.

 

[BaseballJones]

I definitely don't expect him to pitch to a sub-2.00 era all season. That would be absurd. But I am on record from before the season that I thought he'd be good for Boston. I figured around a mid-3's era for the season. He's still better than that at 3.29, but of course it's trending in the wrong direction. But I do think it will stabilize and end up in the mid 3's. Which would be fantastic.

 

[Jason Bae]

His K rate is down slightly (8.9 v 8.2), his BB rate is even (2.9 in each span), and his HR rate has tripled. See @Jason Bae 's post for that last part.

Another note, his BB rate is even, but his HBP rate has doubled, so his BB+HBP/9 went from 3.3 to 3.7.

Even if his xFIP were his true talent level, I'd be pretty satisfied with that. If it's somewhere between his FIP and xFIP, then even better. I don't even think he looked that bad yesterday, just one crucial walk followed by hanging a pitch against one of the best hitters in the league.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Even if his xFIP were his true talent level, I'd be pretty satisfied with that. If it's somewhere between his FIP and xFIP, then even better. I don't even think he looked that bad yesterday, just one crucial walk followed by hanging a pitch against one of the best hitters in the league.

I think the bolded is key. Crawford hasn't looked as dominant as he did in April, but he was still facing a stout lineup last night and made a mistake to a very very good hitter. It's not as though the wheels have completely come off for him. He had a rough inning against a tough lineup. Otherwise he looked fine and he went 6, which is something we were begging for anyone to do last year.

 

[simplicio]

I've found myself wondering this year if he gets rattled easily or something. Seems like a lot of the damage against him gets condensed into single bad innings where he inexplicably loses it. He came back and pitched really well for the rest of the game after the second inning last night; it's not like he just didn't have his stuff, but he also wasn't able to reset during the inning itself.

Also possibly of note is that his terrible pitch for the GS came immediately following an awful blown call. In what was already a long inning, you have to wonder if that took his head out of the game even more.

 

[Fishy1]

I've found myself wondering this year if he gets rattled easily or something. Seems like a lot of the damage against him gets condensed into single bad innings where he inexplicably loses it. He came back and pitched really well for the rest of the game after the second inning last night; it's not like he just didn't have his stuff, but he also wasn't able to reset during the inning itself.

Also possibly of note is that his terrible pitch for the GS came immediately following an awful blown call. In what was already a long inning, you have to wonder if that took his head out of the game even more.
View attachment 83384

I remember thinking pretty peevishly that it forced him to throw another one down the pipe, since the bases were already loaded. But then again it didn't really force him to throw another hanger, it just meant he needed to throw a strike. A shitty sweeper up in the zone is never a good pitch.