Koji's Split Personality

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HillysLastWalk said:
I really hadn't given much thought to bringing back Koji and letting go of Miller, as I figured the Sox wouldn't go four years on Miller so we would never have a chance to sign him.  And sure, there's some early hindsight going on here, but ..
 
Is there a discussion anywhere about not going 4 years on Miller and instead signing a 40 year old who was getting hit towards the end of last year (and I think was injured) vs. signing a 30 year old with K rates in the 14's the past couple of years?
 
They both "cost" 9M/year for this year and next year, so the "risk" of signing Miller to two more of these years (18M total), was riskier than Koji maintaining his "stuff"?
 
They also locked up Koji pretty early in the off-season (10/30/14) so it's not as though they were expressly choosing to sign Koji rather than Miller at the same AAV because at the time they had no idea what Miller's AAV was going to end up being.  Miller signed on December 5 and I seem to recall discussion before that that he could end in the $11-12M AAV range.  I really don't think it came down to an either/or between Koji and Miller.
 

radsoxfan

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Encouraging outing from Koji tonight. 87-88 mph with the fastball, mixed it in more than he has previously this year.
 
I hope Farrell babies him and doesn't use him back-to-back days for awhile (like, pretty much most of the season).  
 

Jnai

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More like Koji.
 

 
Nothing on the plate.
 
 
 
Also, rare cutter!
 
 

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radsoxfan said:
Encouraging outing from Koji tonight. 87-88 mph with the fastball, mixed it in more than he has previously this year.
 
I hope Farrell babies him and doesn't use him back-to-back days for awhile (like, pretty much most of the season).  
 
That's easy to say until you have two consecutive close games that you'd like to win.
 

aron7awol

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Update:
 
4/14 12 splitters, 2 fastballs (85.7% splitters)
4/17 9 splitters, 1 fastball (90.0% splitters)
4/21 10 splitters, 1 fastball (90.9% splitters)
4/24 21 splitters, 2 fastballs (91.3% splitters)
4/25 9 splitters, 5 fastballs (64.3% splitters)
4/27 11 splitters, 4 fastballs (73.3% splitters) I'm ignoring the slider for now
To Date: 72 splitters, 15 fastballs (82.8% splitters)
 
Against the Splitter:
43 swings - 23 whiffs (53.5% whiff/swing!), 6 foul, 2 grounders, 5 line drives, 2 flies, 2 popups
 
We are seeing less usage of the splitter the last 2 games, but still far more than what is normal from Koji.  He's still having the best results he's ever had with it, with hitters continuing to have an incredibly difficult time making contact with it.  Here's hoping it continues...
 

soxhop411

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@bradfo: Koji said he asked Hanigan to call for more fastballs today. He did. Was about 3 mph better than Sat. Better finish on both pitches
 

radsoxfan

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
That's easy to say until you have two consecutive close games that you'd like to win.
 
Agreed.  It would be much easier if the back end of the bullpen had better options.  Hard to willingly go to Mujica at the end of a close game.
 
But I still think they need to be very careful with him given his age, the limited spring, and the recent velocity dip. If it costs them a game that would suck, but I don't think a lot of innings early in the season for Koji is a good move. 
 

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radsoxfan said:
 
Agreed.  It would be much easier if the back end of the bullpen had better options.  Hard to willingly go to Mujica at the end of a close game.
 
But I still think they need to be very careful with him given his age, the limited spring, and the recent velocity dip. If it costs them a game that would suck, but I don't think a lot of innings early in the season for Koji is a good move. 
Ogando seems to be getting better as he builds on each subsequent outing. Hopefully his arm stays attached at the elbow and shoulder.
 

radsoxfan

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aron7awol said:
Update:
 
Against the Splitter:
43 swings - 23 whiffs (53.5% whiff/swing!), 6 foul, 2 grounders, 5 line drives, 2 flies, 2 popups
 
We are seeing less usage of the splitter the last 2 games, but still far more than what is normal from Koji.  He's still having the best results he's ever had with it, with hitters continuing to have an incredibly difficult time making contact with it.  Here's hoping it continues...
 
The sample size is so small at this point, it's probably not worth looking at the specifics too much.  Way too much noise.  But if you REALLY want to look at the small sample size for curiosity sake, Fangraphs has both Koji's splitter and fastball as -0.3 pitch values (not sure if it includes tonights game).  His best year, by far, was 2013, where his splitter was +18.8 and his fastball +10.1. Whiff/swing% isn't the only thing that matters. 
 
Again, I care far more about the stuff than the results since we know he can get great results if he can throw like he did in 2013. Koji doesn't need to discover some new way to pitch even better than 2013 (not that that's really possible). Tonight was a nice step forward.  
 
I maintain you're looking at the issue backwards, and thinking that Koji is purposely throwing this many splitters because it's so unhittable is not the case. He is (was?) doing it because he was trying to survive, he's a smart guy, and he knows poorly commanded 85-86 mph fastballs are not going to work well. I sincerely hope we never find out who is "right" in this discussion, because Koji gets back to throwing at least 40% 88-89 mph fastballs,  and he isn't forced to see what will happen if he throws 80-90% splitters all season. 
 
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Pitchers often mention how important their legs  are to their ability to deliver the ball properly. I'm hoping, since Koji wasn't able to have a full Spring this year, his velo problems are simply a result of him being behind schedule in terms of building-up his leg power, and stamina. That sort of thing.
 
Tonight was encouraging.
 

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radsoxfan said:
I maintain you're looking at the issue backwards, and thinking that Koji is purposely throwing this many splitters because it's so unhittable is not the case. He is (was?) doing it because he was trying to survive, he's a smart guy, and he knows poorly commanded 85-86 mph fastballs are not going to work well. I sincerely hope we never find out who is "right" in this discussion, because Koji gets back to throwing at least 40% 88-89 mph fastballs,  and he isn't forced to see what will happen if he throws 80-90% splitters all season. 
Out of curiosity, has anyone noticed Koji shaking off catcher signs?  I can't imagine that his catchers are actually calling for all these splitters, but is there any indication that they're calling for fastballs and he's refusing?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The Koji, Ogando and Taz combo seems like a very solid 8th and 9th inning cluster- I'd imagine that any combo of them could finish the last two innings of a close game in any order, and following days that Koji pitches, if another closing situation comes about I have confidence in Ogando and Taz.
I'd like to see Barnes come up and  join that group and then I'd be feeling very good about our bullpen
 

aron7awol

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radsoxfan said:
 
The sample size is so small at this point, it's probably not worth looking at the specifics too much.  Way too much noise.  But if you REALLY want to look at the small sample size for curiosity sake, Fangraphs has both Koji's splitter and fastball as -0.3 pitch values (not sure if it includes tonights game).  His best year, by far, was 2013, where his splitter was +18.8 and his fastball +10.1. Whiff/swing% isn't the only thing that matters. 
 
Again, I care far more about the stuff than the results since we know he can get great results if he can throw like he did in 2013. Koji doesn't need to discover some new way to pitch even better than 2013 (not that that's really possible). Tonight was a nice step forward.  
 
I maintain you're looking at the issue backwards, and thinking that Koji is purposely throwing this many splitters because it's so unhittable is not the case. He is (was?) doing it because he was trying to survive, he's a smart guy, and he knows poorly commanded 85-86 mph fastballs are not going to work well. I sincerely hope we never find out who is "right" in this discussion, because Koji gets back to throwing at least 40% 88-89 mph fastballs,  and he isn't forced to see what will happen if he throws 80-90% splitters all season. 
 
If you're going to look at a small sample, looking at peripherals such as whiff/swing is much better than something like FG's pitch values, as I'm almost certain those pitch values are based solely on results.  This is why 2013 stands out so much in the pitch values despite his peripherals being consistently fantastic every year since 2011.
 
Small sample or not, 23 whiffs on 43 swings is meaningful.  If someone who had never thrown a baseball before pitched in a major league game and got 23 whiffs on 43 swings, there would no doubt be teams lining up to acquire him.  You can't fake that kind of dominance.  Since the question is whether significantly increasing the usage of the splitter and thus making at bats against Koji more predictable will be a detriment to the effectiveness of the pitch, so far the answer is a resounding "No."  I have no idea if it will hold up as the season continues, or even if he will continue to throw so many splitters, but so far hitters have been baffled on the whole.
 
Look at FG's PitchFX Plate Discipline:
50.0% O-swing vs. 38.8% career
33.3% O-contact vs. 55.3% career
50.0% Contact vs. 69.9% career
 
These early results are absurd.  Do I expect it to continue to this degree?  No, but these statistics stabilize faster than anything else, and an improvement in all of these is exactly what I would expect if a pitcher who has thrown a ridiculously filthy pitch 40% of the time suddenly started throwing it more often.  That is, until the predictability started to offset the additional value of throwing a much better pitch more often.  So far, that hasn't manifested itself at all.
 
We don't know exactly why he has been throwing so many splitters.  Koji's comments may suggest that Hanigan has just been calling them because he felt it was the best approach.  Would that be because the fastball sucked or just because the splitter is awesome?  Probably both.
 
My main point is that the optimal pitch mix for Koji is probably much higher than 40% splitters given how great the pitch has been throughout his career.  Whether the optimum mix is 80%, 90%, 60% splitters, or something else, I'm not sure, but I just hope he continues throwing at least 60-70% because I think the result will be the best season of his career.  I don't care about being right or wrong, other than I'm rooting for Koji.  I respect you, rad, and always enjoy reading your posts.
 

radsoxfan

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I appreciate the discussion and differing viewpoints as well.  
 
Another important factor about keeping a reasonable pitch mix is that Koji, even as great as he is, always has made occasional mistakes with his splitter.  When hitters still have to consider fastball, there is a greater chance the speed/deception alone will cause them to be out in front and roll over the ball or hit it foul even if it's down the middle.  If he's throwing 80+% splitters, once hitters fully catch on, they will be timing him much better. 
 
He might get just as many, if not more whiffs, but those well-timed swings on his mistakes are going to be even more problematic than usual. That's when you get the David Lough's of the world taking you deep for walk-offs (small sample size… I know, I know).
 
I'm sure we are both rooting for Koji to succeed, and honestly, if he does it with your strategy of 80+% splitters, that's fine with me.  I'm just much more pessimistic than you that it'll work, and would prefer a 2013-like mix (if the fastball is decent enough to allow it).
 

aron7awol

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In the first two at-bats tonight Koji had no command of the splitter, but made up for it with excellent location on his fastball.
 
Tonight: 7 splitters, 9 fastballs, 1 slider
 
First two at-bats: 5 splitters - 3 balls (not even close),  1 called strike, 1 foul (on a hanger)
Final at-bat: 2 splitters - 1 swinging strike, 1 called strike (painted on the corner)
 
Overall, a great performance.  Better velocity on the fastball and zero balls put in play.
 
6 swings at the fastball - 1 swinging strike, 3 fouls out of play, 2 foul tips
2 swings at the splitter - 1 swinging strike, 1 foul out of play
 

aron7awol

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Tonight: 9 splitters, 4 fastballs
 
2 swings at the fastball - 1 popup, 1 foul
6 swings at the splitter - 3 swinging strikes, 1 foul, 2 ground outs
 
Keep it up, Koji.
 

rotundlio

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Even more encouraging — his velos!
 

 
He's very nearly regained whatever he'd lost.
 

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rotundlio said:
Even more encouraging — his velos!
 

 
He's very nearly regained whatever he'd lost.
 
So, reasonable to conclude that his early lack of velocity might have something to do with his rather abbreviated spring training and perhaps a lack of proper leg strength/drive after the hamstring injury?
 

aron7awol

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Today: 10 splitters, 5 fastballs
 
1 swing at the fastball - foul
5 swings at the splitter - 3 swinging strikes, 2 ground outs
 
Hopefully he can keep this up, as this is another level of domination beyond what Koji has done in the past.  He had a SIERA of 1.29 in his ridiculous 2013 season, and his SIERA coming into today's game was 0.82
 

aron7awol

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Tonight: 10 splitters, 3 fastballs
 
1 swing at the fastball - foul
4 swings at the splitter - 1 swinging strike, 1 foul, 1 ground out, 1 line out
 
He did lose his command briefly against Vogt, but otherwise it was an outing with well-placed pitches for the most part.  His fastball was consistently 86 tonight, which marks the third outing in a row where his velocity has been down.
 

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aron7awol said:
Tonight: 10 splitters, 3 fastballs
 
1 swing at the fastball - foul
4 swings at the splitter - 1 swinging strike, 1 foul, 1 ground out, 1 line out
 
He did lose his command briefly against Vogt, but otherwise it was an outing with well-placed pitches for the most part.  His fastball was consistently 86 tonight, which marks the third outing in a row where his velocity has been down.
Posted in the Masterson thread too but fwiw sitting in the park the gun at o.co seemed several mph slow to me.

Purely subjective but perhaps someone with better pitchfx skills could test this.
 

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ToeKneeArmAss said:
Posted in the Masterson thread too but fwiw sitting in the park the gun at o.co seemed several mph slow to me.

Purely subjective but perhaps someone with better pitchfx skills could test this.
 
Not a test, just an observation: the park screen was giving Gray credit for 95 and Tazawa 94 on Wednesday afternoon, so in the latest game I'd be inclined to credit the velocity readings.
 

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aron7awol said:
Tonight: 10 splitters, 3 fastballs
 
1 swing at the fastball - foul
4 swings at the splitter - 1 swinging strike, 1 foul, 1 ground out, 1 line out
 
He did lose his command briefly against Vogt, but otherwise it was an outing with well-placed pitches for the most part.  His fastball was consistently 86 tonight, which marks the third outing in a row where his velocity has been down.
Lose his command, or walk a guy who took him deep last year to face the light-hitting Eric Sogard?
 

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nvalvo said:
Lose his command, or walk a guy who took him deep last year to face the light-hitting Eric Sogard?
When it's 2 - 0, a walk is as bad as a home run though. Maybe worse because Koji goes into the stretch.

2 - 0 in the bottom of the ninth is when I should have said that a walk is as bad as a HR.
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
He seemed to be a little off target today, some high in the zone pitches we're not used to seeing. True?
 
True in a few instances, but he was still working at the knees and on the outside edge most of the time. Two signal exceptions include the second pitch to Muncy, an inside splitter, and the fourth pitch to Sogard, a middle-middle splitter. The latter was almost as poor a pitch as the one that Lough homered on in Baltimore, but Sogard is too weak a hitter to do anything but ground out to first.
 
 

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
Tim! Tim McCarver! Loved your work behind the plate with Bob Gibson.
 
(The broadcasting with Fox, maybe not so much.)
I would rather he pitched to Vogt in that situation and took whatever consequences. Sogard is a pesky little bastard that had a good game hitting on Tuesday night, and Coco up next was hot after he'd gotten his first hit of the year.  ;) I thought the McCarver joke was that a home run was a rally killer because it clears the bases and gives the pitcher an opportunity to "start over".  
 
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No, McCarver's gotten a lot of crap for saying that "a walk is as good as a home run here" in one of the BOS-MFY matchups in the mid-00s.  But he was speaking of protecting a multiple-run lead in the bottom of the 9th, so he was more right than wrong.  The important thing is to not make an out until the tying run can come to the plate; the manner in which the batter doesn't make an out is far less important than just not making an out.  There are side considerations (a baserunner might be picked off, there are double-play possibilities; on the flip side, some pitchers are much worse from the stretch) but they are minor by comparison to the question of, did you make an out?
 
It'll be pretty easy to demonstrate that.  Start with the win probability of (A) a home team down by 2 with bases empty, 0 outs (or any number of outs, really), bottom of the 9th.  Then, compare it to the win probability of (B) a team down by 1 bases empty (same outs situation), and (C) a team down by 2 with runner on 1st.  The difference between B and C is dwarfed by the difference of A from either.  You can run the same thing for 0, 1 or 2 outs; my prediction is, it's all true to a roughly equal degree.  And if you added an additional run to the deficit in all cases, I bet his statement would be even more true.
 
There are many McCarverisms that are well worth mocking, but I don't think that's anywhere near the top of the list.  Let's start with "elegant gait" and "calm eyes", shall we?
 

aron7awol

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Tonight: 10 splitters, 2 fastballs
 
1 swing at the fastball - pop out
5 swings at the splitter - 2 swinging strikes, 1 foul, 1 fly out, 1 pathetically weak grounder
 
Ackley tried the patient approach, but after falling behind 2-0 Koji showed he could throw the splitter for consecutive strikes to even the count before getting him on the last one low.
 

aron7awol

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Catching up...
 
 
5/16: 5 splitters, 9 fastballs
 
2 swings at the fastball - 1 swinging strike, 1 fly out
2 swings at the splitter - 1 foul, 1 ground out
 
 

5/19: 7 splitters, 9 fastballs
 
5 swings at the fastball - 3 swinging strikes, 1 fly out, 1 home run
2 swings at the splitter - 1 weak grounder infield single, 1 line out
 

aron7awol

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Koji has now pitched 13 innings, or about a fifth of a typical season.  I will look at the usage and effectiveness of the splitter and fastball on the whole this year, and then try to compare the 4 games where he threw mostly fastballs with the other 10 where he threw mostly splitters.
 
2015 on the whole:


 
So far this season, the greatly increased usage of the splitter has not been a detriment to Koji's ability to miss bats.  In fact, both the splitter and fastball have missed bats more than ever before.
 
Looking at each game this year, there are 4 games in particular that stand out, where Koji threw mostly fastballs:

 
In those 4 games combined:
21 splitters, 30 fastballs
 
15 swings at the fastball - 5 swinging strikes, 3 foul, 3 foul tips, 3 fly outs, 1 home run
7 swings at the splitter - 1 swinging strike, 2 foul, 2 grounders, 1 fly out, 1 line out
 
It's obviously a small sample, but the splitter was not great in those outings on the whole.  It didn't induce many swings.  That may just be the simple explanation: Koji didn't have good feel for it those nights, so he went with mostly fastballs.
 

radsoxfan

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As we start getting a more meaningful sample, now of 23 innings, Koji has predictably drifted towards his career norms with his pitch distribution. 58% splitters, 42% fastballs overall. Perhaps he wasn't throwing 80+% splitters early in the year because he thought this was a reasonable path to even greater success. 
 
Again, the root of the problem in my opinion is his reduced fastball velocity (87.0 mph vs 89.2 mph in 2013) to go along with worse fastball command. Unfortunately his numbers are starting to reflect that.  
 

Plympton91

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Yup, resigning Koji is beginning to look like another in a long line of Ben's Bullpen Boondoggles.
 
Maybe going forward the Red Sox will stop acting like "Players who had terrible second halves in the previous season" is the new market inefficiency.
 

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I've noticed that Koji seems much less effective during the few times he pitches during a blowout.  It's like he takes his foot off the gas or something:
 
 
 
6/21 entered with 13-0 lead, allowed 3 H, 2 ER
6/16 entered with 9-2 lead, allowed 4 H, 2 ER
5/24 entered with 6-1 lead, allowed 0 H, 0 ER
5/23 entered with 8-3 lead, allowed 2 BB, 0 ER
 
Going back to last year:
9/25 entered with 11-1 lead, allowed 0 H, 0 ER
9/2 entered with 9-3 lead, allowed 2 H, 1 ER
8/16 entered with 10-6 lead, allowed 2 H, 1 ER
 
Total for these situations in the past 12 months: 7 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 BB
 

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StupendousMan

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I'm very happy to note that in his last eight appearances (Jun 24 - July 7) -- each of which has lasted exactly one inning -- Koji has given up 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 runs, and, if baseball-reference is to be believed, 2 line drives.  Not bad.
 
During that time, he's thrown a mixture of roughly 2/3 split-finger fastballs and 1/3 four-seam fastballs.  The four-seam has moved at about 88 mph, the splitter about 80 mph.
 
Here's the summary of his pitches, thanks to http://www.brooksbaseball.net/
 

View attachment 1181
 

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aron7awol

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radsoxfan said:
As we start getting a more meaningful sample, now of 23 innings, Koji has predictably drifted towards his career norms with his pitch distribution. 58% splitters, 42% fastballs overall. Perhaps he wasn't throwing 80+% splitters early in the year because he thought this was a reasonable path to even greater success. 
 
Again, the root of the problem in my opinion is his reduced fastball velocity (87.0 mph vs 89.2 mph in 2013) to go along with worse fastball command. Unfortunately his numbers are starting to reflect that.  
Actually, it seems like it may be related to Ryan Hanigan.  Hanigan was out for May and June, and active in April and so far in July.  The data below includes tonight's appearance...
 
Koji pitch mix by month:
April 79 splitters, 24 fastballs (76.7% splitters)
May 69 splitters, 61 fastballs (53.1% splitters)
June 98 splitters, 93 fastballs (51.3% splitters)
July 34 splitters, 12 fastballs (73.9% splitters)
 
Has Koji seen decreased effectiveness of the splitter when he's thrown it more?
April 53.33% whiffs/swing
May 36.36% whiffs/swing
June 37.29% whiffs/swing
July 42.86% whiffs/swing
No, in fact it has been more effective in April and July on a rate basis despite hitters seeing it more.
 
One more thing to look at, K% and BB% by month:
April 47.8 K%, 0.0 BB%
May 18.4 K%, 13.2 BB%
June 23.1 K%, 1.9 BB%
July 38.5 K%, 0.0 BB%
 
Also, despite the diminished fastball velocity, Koji is getting as many whiffs/swing on the fastball this year as last, which was by far a career high for him to that point.  There's no way to be sure, so I can only speculate, but the data suggests to me that:
1. Hanigan may be the one calling 75% splitters
2. The splitter has been more effective, not less, when thrown more
3. The higher rate of splitters has made the fastball better
4. Overall, Koji has been much better when he's thrown mostly splitters
 

radsoxfan

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As we continue to get a more meaningful sample size, now 31 IP, Koji has thrown 40% fastballs and 59% splitters (1% cutters).  Slightly fewer fastballs compared to his 2013 season, when he threw 46% fastballs.  
 
As to the month to month variation, any idea if he had a similar variation in 2013? When he had his dominant stretch in the second half, was he throwing more splitters than usual? Or was it pretty uniform throughout the year? I'd be curious to know.
 
I don't look at the month to month variation and jump immediately to the same causation theory you seem to.  Maybe when Koji feels he has a good splitter, he throws it more often? Maybe thats why it's been more successful in those games?  Maybe when he senses hitters are reacting to the splitter differently (i.e. advanced scouting reports say he's thrown it 75%+ of the time recently), he knows he has to throw more fastballs, and thats why he made the May/June adjustment? Maybe his arm was bothering him in May and June, and that played in a role in both his pitch selection and the results? Maybe, since we are still at a small 31 inning sample, and then breaking that up into 4 even smaller samples, there is a lot of noise in the data? I could keep going, there are plenty of other things that could be happening as well. I honestly don't know. 
 
My guess is that it's not as simple as 75% splitters = good koji, 50% splitters = bad koji.  Especially since, during one of the most dominant relief seasons of all time in 2013, he throw 48% splitters.
 
As to who is deciding the ratio, I would assume Koji is the person in charge as much, if not more, than the catcher.  I've certainly seen him shake off signs quite often this year. But I don't dispute the catchers may play a role as well.
 

aron7awol

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I went back and looked at the game logs and every single one of Koji's April and July appearances he was throwing to Hanigan, and all of his other appearances he was throwing to someone other than Hanigan.
 
Hanigan 113 splitters, 36 fastballs (75.8% splitters)
Non-Hanigan 167 splitters, 154 fastballs (52.0% splitters)
 
I'm with you on small sample sizes and jumping to conclusions, but while it's a small sample in innings, 149 and 321 aren't small samples in pitches thrown when looking at a mix of only 2 pitches.  Additionally, the buckets aren't arbitrary, we're talking about different catchers putting down signs.  Have I looked at the film for all of these games to actually check which sign got put down for each pitch to see which ones Koji shook off?  No, but I'm comfortable saying that in most cases, he doesn't shake it off and throws what's put down, and thus, that Hanigan calls more splitters than the other catchers on the team.
 
 
Anyway, whether Hanigan is truly the reason that his April and July pitch mixes have been so splitter-heavy isn't the real question at hand.  It's really about pitch mix and effectiveness, and here is what my stance has been from the beginning...
 
Over the course of Koji's career, the splitter has been a better pitch than his fastball, and it's not close:
Whiff% - Splitter 25.14%, Fastball 12.42%
Whiff/Swing - Splitter 41.25%, Fastball 25.33%
GB/BIP - Splitter 43.43%, Fastball 21.08%
HR/(FB+LD) - Splitter 8.07%, Fastball 11.57%
BAA - Splitter .173, Fastball .213
SLG - Splitter .286, Fastball .414
ISO - Splitter .113, Fastball .202
 
If Koji is going to throw one single pitch to a random batter, and you're picking which pitch it is, you should have him throw a splitter.  I think that everyone can agree on.  
 
With that much of a difference, game theory would suggest that he should try throwing more splitters.  As I said from the beginning, I don't know what the optimal pitch mix is, but I'm extremely confident it's more splitters than his career mix to date.  You disagreed and stated valid reasons why it might not work, which I didn't necessarily disagree with, I just felt that they didn't have a large enough effect to offset the additional benefit of throwing the better pitch more often.
 
So what I've really been trying to track here, is, "In the games where Koji has thrown the most splitters, has the effectiveness of the splitter been reduced, or has his overall effectiveness been reduced?"  It just so happens that, coincidentally or not, the Hanigan/Non-Hanigan buckets match up very well to look at the data, and definitely coincidentally, the monthly buckets match up and make it really easy to separate the data.
 
I looked at the effectiveness of the splitter alone.  It has increased, not decreased, in those games.  That was somewhat surprising to me, I'll admit. I expected it to be about the same.  But maybe throwing it more often gives him a better feel for it during the game.  That seems logical to me; I know if I throw the same pitch multiple times in a row I can definitely command it better than if I switch back and forth between different pitches.
 
I also looked at his overall effectiveness, using K% and BB% as metrics since they stabilize fairly quickly.  It has also increased, by a lot, in those games.  This was absolutely expected, in my mind.  He's throwing a much better pitch much more often.  I see zero evidence to suggest that increasing the mix to 75%/25% has had any detrimental effect, and quite a bit of evidence of the opposite.  Is the sample large enough to be absolutely 100% confident that the 75%/25% mix is better?  No, but it makes complete sense in game theory, and so far, in a decent sample, the results have only validated the theory.
 

radsoxfan

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aron7awol said:
 
I also looked at his overall effectiveness, using K% and BB% as metrics since they stabilize fairly quickly.  It has also increased, by a lot, in those games.  This was absolutely expected, in my mind.  He's throwing a much better pitch much more often.  I see zero evidence to suggest that increasing the mix to 75%/25% has had any detrimental effect, and quite a bit of evidence of the opposite.  Is the sample large enough to be absolutely 100% confident that the 75%/25% mix is better?  No, but it makes complete sense in game theory, and so far, in a decent sample, the results have only validated the theory.
 
Can we find out from other years if he is better in individual games when he throws 75%+ splitters?  Even if true, drawing conclusions from that is dangerous, because maybe he only throws that many splitters when he has a good feel for it.  It could just be that when Koji has a good feel for the splitter, he throws it a lot, and it works really well. Or maybe he only throws that many when he is facing hitters susceptible to that pitch. There are other explanations as well. But it might not be as simple as more = better. 
 
We have a pretty recent (larger) data point, when Koji had 101 Ks, 9 BB, and a 1.74 ERA in 71 innings while throwing 48% splitters.  Do you think this was a suboptimal mix, and he could have been significantly better that year?  Or is it only 2015 Koji, with his diminished fastball, that should be throwing 75% splitters?  Not trying to be snarky, I'm just wondering if 75/25 is the new optimal mix, or if you think he should have always been doing this.
 

joe dokes

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Can we find out from other years if he is better in individual games when he throws 75%+ splitters?  Even if true, drawing conclusions from that is dangerous, because maybe he only throws that many splitters when he has a good feel for it.  It could just be that when Koji has a good feel for the splitter, he throws it a lot, and it works really well. Or maybe he only throws that many when he is facing hitters susceptible to that pitch. There are other explanations as well. But it might not be as simple as more = better.
 
 
 There have been days this season -- or periods of them -- when Koji's fastball get to 88 (I thought I even saw an 89 the other night); and other times when he can't get past 86.  That *has* to influence his pitch selection, no?
 

techsoldaten

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aron7awol said:
I went back and looked at the game logs and every single one of Koji's April and July appearances he was throwing to Hanigan, and all of his other appearances he was throwing to someone other than Hanigan.
 
Hanigan 113 splitters, 36 fastballs (75.8% splitters)
Non-Hanigan 167 splitters, 154 fastballs (52.0% splitters)
 
I'm with you on small sample sizes and jumping to conclusions, but while it's a small sample in innings, 149 and 321 aren't small samples in pitches thrown when looking at a mix of only 2 pitches.  Additionally, the buckets aren't arbitrary, we're talking about different catchers putting down signs.  Have I looked at the film for all of these games to actually check which sign got put down for each pitch to see which ones Koji shook off?  No, but I'm comfortable saying that in most cases, he doesn't shake it off and throws what's put down, and thus, that Hanigan calls more splitters than the other catchers on the team.
 
This.
 
All the talk about whether or not he's injured doesn't really matter so long as he's still able to get people out. I think his pitch selection has more to do with who's catching than other factors. I would love to see what the selection looks like with other catchers.
 

Al Zarilla

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joe dokes said:
 
 There have been days this season -- or periods of them -- when Koji's fastball get to 88 (I thought I even saw an 89 the other night); and other times when he can't get past 86.  That *has* to influence his pitch selection, no?
I'm not sure a pitcher knows when he's throwing 86 vs. 88 (without looking at the speedgun) unless he's not right (injured). That's about a 2% difference. His catcher might have a better inkling. Also, the faster pitch might be breaking more, or less, which the catcher, again, might see better. Rely on Hanny!
 

joe dokes

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Al Zarilla said:
I'm not sure a pitcher knows when he's throwing 86 vs. 88 (without looking at the speedgun) unless he's not right (injured). That's about a 2% difference. His catcher might have a better inkling. Also, the faster pitch might be breaking more, or less, which the catcher, again, might see better. Rely on Hanny!
 
Fair point. Certainly he doesn't know the exact speed. And maybe a pitcher who doesn't think he has his best fastball, really does still have a good one.  But I do wonder if a pitcher can tell if his fastball is a bit underwhelming today, without being told by the hitters?  What's funny, though, is that while its only a 2% difference, if Koji's max top-out was now 86, I think his performance would suffer.
 

SumnerH

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MentalDisabldLst said:
No, McCarver's gotten a lot of crap for saying that "a walk is as good as a home run here" in one of the BOS-MFY matchups in the mid-00s.  But he was speaking of protecting a multiple-run lead in the bottom of the 9th, so he was more right than wrong.
You have the reason for ridicule wrong: Joe Buck first said "a walk is as good as a home run" in a game under those circumstances--as you note, it's not 100% true but it's reasonably close. Mccarver was completely flummoxed until Buck proceeded to explain it as you did. McCarver purported to understand the explanation, but then went on to use "a walk is good as a home run" in virtually any ninth-inning circumstance, even when that justification didn't apply.