Kemba 2021: The Jour-knee Begins

ifmanis5

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If the team was in re-building mode or if this was a bridge year, it wouldn't matter. But they have two young stars on the rise and they can't afford to have this guy holding them back. It's obvious. It has to change in order for the team to get to where they want to go. I just worry that he has basically zero trade value right now.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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He’s a 6-foot guard on the wrong side of 30 who relies on his quickness to create separation for his jumper. The wear and tear of having to give max effort for the past decade plus eventually catches up to these guys right about this time and they lose a step. These guys margins are so thin to begin with they cannot afford to lose a step.
But, again, why can he do it when theres less pressure or against marginal teams? I mean, 1-11 is putrid.
 

Euclis20

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If the team was in re-building mode or if this was a bridge year, it wouldn't matter. But they have two young stars on the rise and they can't afford to have this guy holding them back. It's obvious. It has to change in order for the team to get to where they want to go. I just worry that he has basically zero trade value right now.
Not zero value, he has negative trade value. The Celtics would have to give up assets to move him. The move is to wait and hope he improves, either adding value to a team with title aspirations or becoming a positive asset that can be moved for someone with more value to the current roster.

He's 6 games in, plenty of time to improve. Even if his new normal is the playoffs last year, he's still a positive on the court (even if it's an overall negative due to his contract).
 

A Bad Man

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I'm not sure how much injury influenced his performance during the playoffs, but the Raptors did out Anunoby on him. This is part of the reason he was shut down, because he and a harder time getting his shot off against longer defenders. But, even if he plays like shit, the fact that he was demanding that kind of attention is good for the rest of the offense.

He's looked like his old self in moments this season since coming back and then looked totally gassed. He looked great in the first half against Philly in the first game and then just lost his touch. I think he's still building back up his conditioning. I don't see any indication that his performance is injury related. If he looks like this at the end of the season I'll be concerned.
We have several recent quotes from Kemba about his knee hampering him in the playoffs. There are a few in this December piece. I think anyone who watched the playoffs would say it was pretty obvious that his knee was hampering him after he tweaked it on that one fall.

Kemba's meniscus is screwed. He had three surgeries on it before he came to Boston (two open, one arthroscopic). It was folly to think it wouldn't resurface.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But, again, why can he do it when theres less pressure or against marginal teams? I mean, 1-11 is putrid.
His reduced level of play isn’t exposed as much against marginal teams. He’s still the superior player to many of those other guys he’s going against. Nobody on the Knicks is creating switches with LeBron and Davis on the floor so he’s exposed against these guys.
 

JakeRae

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He hangs 18.3ppg the last 4 games then hangs a 1-11 against the Lakers. He was atrocious in the playoffs last season. Hes come up incredibly small in big situations the last few seasons. Its bizarre and his ability to produce against lower tier teams but not in big moments cant be attributed to his knee.
He was playing hurt in the playoffs last season. I have no idea what else the reference to coming up “incredibly small in big situations the last few seasons” is referencing since, as far as I’m aware, literally the only big situations Kemba has played in during his career were in the bubble (if you want to expand to his other playoff trips, we’re going back 5+ years anyway). So, maybe, just maybe, his poor performance while hurt in the playoffs actually can, and should, be attributed to his knee and we shouldn’t overreact to a single bad regular season game while he’s still recovering from an injury?
 

lovegtm

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He was playing hurt in the playoffs last season. I have no idea what else the reference to coming up “incredibly small in big situations the last few seasons” is referencing since, as far as I’m aware, literally the only big situations Kemba has played in during his career were in the bubble (if you want to expand to his other playoff trips, we’re going back 5+ years anyway). So, maybe, just maybe, his poor performance while hurt in the playoffs actually can, and should, be attributed to his knee and we shouldn’t overreact to a single bad regular season game while he’s still recovering from an injury?
This isn't an acute injury or a one-time thing. It's an issue that's becoming chronic, that is clearly a serious concern going forward for all involved. As noted, the track record of 6-foot guys who rely on quickness is bad when the injuries start coming.

I don't really know what the solution is, but the core here is good enough that they've got to find one.
 

BaseballJones

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So Kemba maybe just needs to become a 15 min Vinnie Johnson spark plug guy. Obviously a REALLY expensive one but at this point it's a sunk cost and you need to get the most out of him. With Pritchard and Smart playing well, you can afford to use Kemba like this. He won't love it, but what can you do? It'll cost more to get rid of him than to keep him, and he can still help in a limited capacity.
 

A Bad Man

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You have a very talented, very proud, very charismatic man with a degenerative knee issue. It is going to be tricky.

At this point, you just have to hope he is being honest about how he is feeling and get some more data.
 

Jimbodandy

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So Kemba maybe just needs to become a 15 min Vinnie Johnson spark plug guy. Obviously a REALLY expensive one but at this point it's a sunk cost and you need to get the most out of him. With Pritchard and Smart playing well, you can afford to use Kemba like this. He won't love it, but what can you do? It'll cost more to get rid of him than to keep him, and he can still help in a limited capacity.
It's the only logical answer. If they can move him without paying through the nose or taking on an even worse contract like Wall, great. If not, he needs to come off the bench. Getting him to a Lou Will/Microwave role, dumping in 12-15 points against second units would be useful.

I think that there's some overreaction to 1-12, but he really hasn't looked good in the other games either. He wasn't bad against the Knicks and Sixers but that's three shitty games out of six.

Schroeder rawdogging him up the court all night looked like a 4-13 NCAA tournament game matchup. I'm surprised that he didn't end up with any 8-second violations.
 

benhogan

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This isn't an acute injury or a one-time thing. It's an issue that's becoming chronic, that is clearly a serious concern going forward for all involved. As noted, the track record of 6-foot guys who rely on quickness is bad when the injuries start coming.

I don't really know what the solution is, but the core here is good enough that they've got to find one.
Shorter minutes, limit his games, play him against 2nd units and rebuild his value. Hello, Payton Pritchard minutes/role increase. Move KW this offseason.

The Celtics have the youngsters, picks, and financial flexibility (TPE) to do a kitchen renovation this Summer.

This is not a white flag situation on 2021, they still have a shot this season with JayCrew ascending. BUT there is no reason for Danny to hamstring this group in 2022 and 23, just to wish cast that Kemba's knee miraculously heels
 

BaseballJones

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It's the only logical answer. If they can move him without paying through the nose or taking on an even worse contract like Wall, great. If not, he needs to come off the bench. Getting him to a Lou Will/Microwave role, dumping in 12-15 points against second units would be useful.

I think that there's some overreaction to 1-12, but he really hasn't looked good in the other games either. He wasn't bad against the Knicks and Sixers but that's three shitty games out of six.

Schroeder rawdogging him up the court all night looked like a 4-13 NCAA tournament game matchup. I'm surprised that he didn't end up with any 8-second violations.
I definitely like the idea of him coming in and eating up other teams' second units. Having this talented a scorer able to do that might be great. Kemba could get a lot of shots in a smaller amount of time in this role. And if he's playing great, sure, maybe a few more minutes against their first unit if it can work.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You have a very talented, very proud, very charismatic man with a degenerative knee issue. It is going to be tricky.
Yes, extremely tricky. What looks good on paper doesn’t always work with egos and personalities in real life. If his teammates aren’t on board with this it creates another potential divide. I don’t really see this happening although those 4Q final rotation minutes could end up going to someone else by the end of the year as least against certain matchups.
 

128

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Schroeder rawdogging him up the court all night looked like a 4-13 NCAA tournament game matchup. I'm surprised that he didn't end up with any 8-second violations.
Speaking of Schroeder: fantastic pickup for the Lakers.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The one piece we don't fully know yet is whether he's building up/getting used to what he is now (which would suggest at least some progress as he plays more this year) or his knee is the limitation---not mindset/confidence---and this is the new peak (low as it is) and he's at least as likely to be even more limited in a month or two

I have some optimism that he'll get more comfortable and figure out how to deploy the skills he still possesses more effectively, but I tend to agree with the consensus that he might be a 25 minute a game 6th man/bench scorer more than a star going foward. Celtcs can survive that but they need to him do some combo of improve and recognize he's no better than the third wheel.

The other thing is it makes the decision to effectively flip Rozier for him look pretty bad---whether or not Rozier would have worked here as a fourth wheel, the chance of keeping Hayward would be much better with him as a true point-forward and without an alpha at PG. I loved the move at the time but in retrospect, it is looking like a big miss (albeit one driven by some misfortune too).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I definitely like the idea of him coming in and eating up other teams' second units. Having this talented a scorer able to do that might be great. Kemba could get a lot of shots in a smaller amount of time in this role. And if he's playing great, sure, maybe a few more minutes against their first unit if it can work.
Brad is already doing that - he's the first one out and comes in against 2nd units. Problem is that if Kemba only plays the first and last five minutes of each half, that's still 20 minutes against starters.

Kemba said that the problem last year was that he couldn't get to his pull-up. It looked to me last night that he couldn't get to his pull-up.

I said it after the game last night in the game thread - seems curious to me he would come back in January particularly after playing so deep into last year. Seems like a few more weeks couldn't have hurt and maybe a reduced load would have helped him be at his peak in the playoffs.
 

BigSoxFan

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The one piece we don't fully know yet is whether he's building up/getting used to what he is now (which would suggest at least some progress as he plays more this year) or his knee is the limitation---not mindset/confidence---and this is the new peak (low as it is) and he's at least as likely to be even more limited in a month or two

I have some optimism that he'll get more comfortable and figure out how to deploy the skills he still possesses more effectively, but I tend to agree with the consensus that he might be a 25 minute a game 6th man/bench scorer more than a star going foward. Celtcs can survive that but they need to him do some combo of improve and recognize he's no better than the third wheel.

The other thing is it makes the decision to effectively flip Rozier for him look pretty bad---whether or not Rozier would have worked here as a fourth wheel, the chance of keeping Hayward would be much better with him as a true point-forward and without an alpha at PG. I loved the move at the time but in retrospect, it is looking like a big miss (albeit one driven by some misfortune too).
Ainge really had some pretty crappy luck with some of his big moves. First, there’s the obvious Hayward injury that basically doomed the Kyrie teams from the beginning although their demise may have been inevitable. Then, you decide on Kemba over Brogdon because you need a close and the Jay’s both proceed to go nuts in their development making the decision look even worse. And then you have Kemba’s knee injury, which makes it nearly impossible to trade him to re-calibrate the team around the Jay’s.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The one piece we don't fully know yet is whether he's building up/getting used to what he is now (which would suggest at least some progress as he plays more this year) or his knee is the limitation---not mindset/confidence---and this is the new peak (low as it is) and he's at least as likely to be even more limited in a month or two
With respect to his mindset, there were some interesting quotes in the Athletic today in this story (emphasis added):

“I’m not even a player like that to really get frustrated,” Walker said. “I’m more smiling, and I wasn’t that tonight. I got into my own head and mentally I hurt myself. And I can’t — can’t — do that for this team. These guys look to me, especially when things are going tough, these guys look at me and I can’t put my head down and not mentally be engaged into the game like I was tonight. I got to be better on that end.”

 

PedroKsBambino

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It's so very challenging and imprecise to try and interpret "confidence" through a tv set I always worry about being heard to criticize the player when I raise it. But I do wonder if his knee failing him and limiting his game has gotten into his head a bit. that is something that may be easier to change than the knee itself, though some guys never really get past each of them.
 

scottyno

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Ainge really had some pretty crappy luck with some of his big moves. First, there’s the obvious Hayward injury that basically doomed the Kyrie teams from the beginning although their demise may have been inevitable. Then, you decide on Kemba over Brogdon because you need a close and the Jay’s both proceed to go nuts in their development making the decision look even worse. And then you have Kemba’s knee injury, which makes it nearly impossible to trade him to re-calibrate the team around the Jay’s.
Are we sure that's why they chose Kemba over Brogdon and not that they assumed the Bucks would match any offer and trying to sign Brogdon would have cost them both guys?
 

BigSoxFan

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Are we sure that's why they chose Kemba over Brogdon and not that they assumed the Bucks would match any offer and trying to sign Brogdon would have cost them both guys?
There definitely could have been a “bird in the hand” dynamic there. Don’t think we ever got great reporting on it. I just can’t get over how perfect of a fit Brogdon would be with the Jay’s.
 

scottyno

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There definitely could have been a “bird in the hand” dynamic there. Don’t think we ever got great reporting on it. I just can’t get over how perfect of a fit Brogdon would be with the Jay’s.
In retrospect yeah, but I feel like it was assumed by everyone that the Bucks would match any offer because they needed to keep Giannis happy. They had one offseason of cap space before the Jays got expensive and they'd be capped out anyway, so if they passed on Kemba and then the Bucks matched Brongdon they would have been kind of screwed.
 

benhogan

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In retrospect yeah, but I feel like it was assumed by everyone that the Bucks would match any offer because they needed to keep Giannis happy. They had one offseason of cap space before the Jays got expensive and they'd be capped out anyway, so if they passed on Kemba and then the Bucks matched Brongdon they would have been kind of screwed.
A rival to Milwaukee was able to make a deal. I doubt Danny assumed that Brogdon going back to Milwaukee was a done deal.

At the time it felt like the Kemba signing was a knee-jerk reaction by Danny w/ Kyrie walking away. I was shocked Danny did it and felt like Brogdon was the obvious move. It made little sense at the time and makes less sense now. Kemba's knee deterioration isn't really luck, it was always going to be a problem with KW's size, dependence on quickness/speed and mileage.
 

scottyno

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A rival to Milwaukee was able to make a deal. I doubt Danny assumed that Brogdon going back to Milwaukee was a done deal.

At the time it felt like the Kemba signing was a knee-jerk reaction by Danny w/ Kyrie walking away. I was shocked Danny did it and felt like Brogdon was the obvious move. It made little sense at the time and makes less sense now. Kemba's knee deterioration isn't really luck, it was always going to be a problem with KW's size, dependence on quickness/speed and mileage.
First you had to convince Brogdon he wanted to come to Boston, then you had to hope the Bucks didn't match. If either of those doesn't work then you're totally screwed because in that time while you're waiting every other top guy is gone and you're left with salary slot space you can never get back.

Kemba made a ton of sense, they needed a point guard, they needed a vet scorer to take the load off the jays until they were ready to be the top guys, he was coming off an all nba season, and he had rarely missed time to injury with Charlotte, plus he wanted to come play in the northeast.
 

nighthob

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Wall's contract no longer looks so bad with how well he's played for the Rockets. There's no way the Rockets would move him for Walker. You clearly haven't watched the Wizards this year (and no one's blaming you, they suck), but they'd need to include their 2021 #1 in order to get Boston to eat that extra $20 million in salary. Houston dodged a bullet there.

If the team was in re-building mode or if this was a bridge year, it wouldn't matter. But they have two young stars on the rise and they can't afford to have this guy holding them back. It's obvious. It has to change in order for the team to get to where they want to go. I just worry that he has basically zero trade value right now.
Covid Season II: Viral Boogaloo makes this season a wash. The goal is to get Walker healthy enough and playing well enough that when the Knicks strike out in free agency again that they see him as a way of rehabbing their organizational image. Boston wouldn't be looking for anything more than the worthless second Dallas pick and the giant TPE to scout for a talent upgrade.
 

nighthob

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The other thing is it makes the decision to effectively flip Rozier for him look pretty bad---whether or not Rozier would have worked here as a fourth wheel, the chance of keeping Hayward would be much better with him as a true point-forward and without an alpha at PG. I loved the move at the time but in retrospect, it is looking like a big miss (albeit one driven by some misfortune too).
The move for Walker made sense in context, as a bridge to give the Jay-Crew time to make the leap they did. However they've gotten so good so quickly that it definitely looks awful in retrospect. But Rozier wouldn't have been the fourth wheel as Hayward wouldn't have stayed. Hayward wasn't happy with a reduced role and seems to have made the right choice as he's been lighting it up in Charlotte. So had they just let Kyrie go and rolled with T-Ro they would have been a lot better off.
 

nighthob

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Are we sure that's why they chose Kemba over Brogdon and not that they assumed the Bucks would match any offer and trying to sign Brogdon would have cost them both guys?
Boston did say at the time that they were trying to replace Irving, and Irving was Boston's closer. Brogdon is actually the guy that Boston needed, that Marcus like player that plays tough defense, keeps the ball moving, and knocks down open shots. Given their cap space at the time, Boston could have offered enough that Milwaukee would have blinked (as they did when Indiana offered 4/85).

First you had to convince Brogdon he wanted to come to Boston, then you had to hope the Bucks didn't match.
$100 million is usually enough to convince the Malcolm Brogdons of the world that they want to play for you. And the Bucks weren't matching because their cap/tax situation left them room for either Brogdon or Bledsoe, and they chose Bledsoe to keep Giannis happy. That turned to be a pretty terrible decision, and an unnecessary one, as Milwaukee decided to save themselves a couple of million dollars when they signed Brogdon to a three year deal after the draft when the industry standard with valuable second rounders has been two years and two option years for years now.

Anyway, they'd indicated all season long that they were choosing Bledsoe, they weren't matching. They just wanted picks to show for it.
 
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Euclis20

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First you had to convince Brogdon he wanted to come to Boston, then you had to hope the Bucks didn't match. If either of those doesn't work then you're totally screwed because in that time while you're waiting every other top guy is gone and you're left with salary slot space you can never get back.

Kemba made a ton of sense, they needed a point guard, they needed a vet scorer to take the load off the jays until they were ready to be the top guys, he was coming off an all nba season, and he had rarely missed time to injury with Charlotte, plus he wanted to come play in the northeast.
Yeah it's easy to look at it now and see an injured Kemba and the Jays averaging over 50 points per game and say it was a bad move, but there were a number of good reasons for it:

-The team was a mess chemistry-wise after 2019, and as much as anyone in the league, Kemba was a huge breath of fresh air. This is hard to quantify so I've no idea how much he helped in this regard, but it wasn't nothing.
-Tatum and Brown had averaged just 16 and 13 points per game in 2019, and Hayward under 12. Coming into the year there was no guarantee that Tatum and Brown would rebound from what seemed like steps back in their development, or that Hayward would ever play like he did in Utah.
-Kemba had missed a total of 6 games in the previous 4 seasons.

The events that have unfolded weren't impossible to see before the start of last year (Tatum/Brown ascending to all-NBA level scorers, Kemba getting hurt), but that doesn't make Kemba a bad acquisition. Even knowing what we know how, there's no guarantee that the Jays get to their current level without Kemba, who was excellent last year before his injury and took a ton of pressure off of them (I believe he was the leading scorer through January).
 

scottyno

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I suppose it would be silly to point out that Kemba played more games than Brogdon last year and was the superior player.

Or that Brogdon had missed more games in his last 2 years with the Bucks than Kemba did in 8 years with Charlotte.

Saying "what Boston needed" in the summer of 2019 through the lense of what Tatum and Brown are now is pretty silly. Neither Tatum or Brown looked really that close to being ready to be the 1 and 1a guys on offense, hell they didn't even look like they were ready in the first half of last year. But yeah if you knew for certain that both of them would be all nba caliber scorers by the beginning of this year then you take Brogdon

Also, Terry Rozier with Charlotte is not a particularly good basketball player, a mediocre/bad team get's far far better when they take him off the court.
 
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BigSoxFan

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I suppose it would be silly to point out that Kemba played more games than Brogdon last year and was the superior player.

Or that Brogdon had missed more games in his last 2 years with the Bucks than Kemba did in 8 years with Charlotte.

Saying "what Boston needed" in the summer of 2019 through the lense of what Tatum and Brown are now is pretty silly. Neither Tatum or Brown looked really that close to being ready to be the 1 and 1a guys on offense, hell they didn't even look like they were ready in the first half of last year. But yeah if you knew for certain that both of them would be all nba caliber scorers by the beginning of this year then you take Brogdon

Also, Terry Rozier with Charlotte is not a particularly good basketball player, a mediocre/bad team get's far far better when they take him off the court.
It’s more just after-the-fact lamenting than anything. We all were excited for Kemba signing. And we all loved how he looked the first couple of months. But, now, his health/effectiveness has deteriorated and the Jay’s have ascended so it just looks bad in retrospect. Right now, Brogdon would be the much better fit and it’s not particularly close anymore. And that gap is probably only going to widen.

I lamented Herro until I saw what we had in PP. The hope is now that Danny can swing a deal to help add what Brogdon would have given this team.
 

nighthob

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I suppose it would be silly to point out that Kemba played more games than Brogdon last year and was the superior player.

Or that Brogdon had missed more games in his last 2 years with the Bucks than Kemba did in 8 years with Charlotte.

Saying "what Boston needed" in the summer of 2019 through the lense of what Tatum and Brown are now is pretty silly. Neither Tatum or Brown looked really that close to being ready to be the 1 and 1a guys on offense, hell they didn't even look like they were ready in the first half of last year. But yeah if you knew for certain that both of them would be all nba caliber scorers by the beginning of this year then you take Brogdon
You're now moving your goalposts. I already laid out the reasons why Boston signed Kemba and why it was understandable that they chose him over Brogdon at the time. That being said many here recognized before last offseason that Brogdon was the better fit with Tatum and Brown longterm, also for the reasons that I laid out in the other thread. When you have guys like Tatum and Brown what you need around them are gritty switchable defenders that can hit open shots.

For the record, I was not one of them, I liked the Walker signing at the time because was a potentially good fit as a short term closer and a positive clubhouse presence to help wash away the stink of Kyrie. Had Ainge taken my suggestion and had an exorcism performed on the organization to get rid of the lingering Kyurse, it might have even worked out.

Also, Terry Rozier with Charlotte is not a particularly good basketball player, a mediocre/bad team get's far far better when they take him off the court.
I understand not watching much Hornets basketball, but Rozier isn't a bad player. We all have nightmares about contract year Rozier (and it's one reason I'm in favor of teams trading guys that they don't want to extend early, contract year heroics tend lead to shitty hoops). And Boston, literally, doesn't need superstars around Tatum and Brown. Their ascension basically means that what Boston needs are guys like Marcus. Rozier could have provided Boston with efficient shooting on a friendly deal (his current contract was not driven by the market, it was driven by the exact amount of money necessary to make a two way sign & trade work so that the Hornets could save face after letting the most popular player in team history walk). He would be fine for what the Celtics actually need with the Jay-Crew having gone supernova.
 

nighthob

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On the bright side if the team keeps playing the way it has with Walker they're getting a pole position in the Cade Cunningham Sweepstakes.
 

scottyno

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I understand not watching much Hornets basketball, but Rozier isn't a bad player. We all have nightmares about contract year Rozier (and it's one reason I'm in favor of teams trading guys that they don't want to extend early, contract year heroics tend lead to shitty hoops). And Boston, literally, doesn't need superstars around Tatum and Brown. Their ascension basically means that what Boston needs are guys like Marcus. Rozier could have provided Boston with efficient shooting on a friendly deal (his current contract was not driven by the market, it was driven by the exact amount of money necessary to make a two way sign & trade work so that the Hornets could save face after letting the most popular player in team history walk). He would be fine for what the Celtics actually need with the Jay-Crew having gone supernova.
Rozier has started every game with the Hornets and hes a -9.7 per 100 on off split. So they either have the best backup guards in the NBA or he's not very good.

His on off splits sucked with the Cs too, but those are more explainable becuase he was usually coming off the bench for either IT or Kyrie. His other metrics last year were terrible too. He's been better this year because his shooting went up, but they're still a much better team when he's not playing.
 

Euclis20

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Rozier has started every game with the Hornets and hes a -9.7 per 100 on off split. So they either have the best backup guards in the NBA or he's not very good.

His on off splits sucked with the Cs too, but those are more explainable becuase he was usually coming off the bench for either IT or Kyrie. His other metrics last year were terrible too. He's been better this year because his shooting went up, but they're still a much better team when he's not playing.
I mean, Lamelo Ball is in the conversation.
 

nighthob

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Rozier has started every game with the Hornets and hes a -9.7 per 100 on off split. So they either have the best backup guards in the NBA or he's not very good.
You understand that in a 2020 redraft Charlotte's backup PG might actually be the first pick, yes?
 

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Saying "what Boston needed" in the summer of 2019 through the lense of what Tatum and Brown are now is pretty silly. Neither Tatum or Brown looked really that close to being ready to be the 1 and 1a guys on offense, hell they didn't even look like they were ready in the first half of last year. But yeah if you knew for certain that both of them would be all nba caliber scorers by the beginning of this year then you take Brogdon
Really? You had trouble seeing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown being eventual All-Stars? When they were 19/21 they made it to the ECF as the leading scorers and took Prime LeBron to 7 games. All you had to do is listen to Greg Popovich, Coach of USA basketball, describe JayCrew in the Summer of 2019 on USA basketball.

People need to stop looking at past performance and expecting it to be linear future performance when it comes to 20yr olds and 30yr olds.

I'll just continue to say now what I said then (see below from June 2019). Let JayCrew flourish and surround them with complementary, defense-first players that line up age-wise. That's not Kemba, and they should do everything in their power to get his value up this season. Move him this Summer (they will have to subsidize it) before it gets worse in the next 2yrs when JayCrew will be All-NBA (see they aren't that now but eventually they will be)

Both Tatum and Brown were great at the end of 2018 and the 2018 playoffs. Brad needs to let them flourish again and not be overshadowed by a ball dominant PG that can't play defense. Kemba would be in decline in years 3 and 4 just when Tatum/Brown will be ascending. Kemba's contract would completely hamstring the organization at the moment they need the flexibility to finish off the roster. Why pay $35MM/yr for a player, with his mileage and his best years in the rearview mirror? The Celtics would be so much better off having Brogdon at half the price, that's where you allocate a big contract.

Danny won't panic and sign Kemba, that would be a reactionary move to Kyrie walking. All this is smoke, probably Kemba's agent working the media to get MJ to step up and pay ~ $140MM.

I'm not buying it, we'll see come Sunday and I'll gladly offer up my mea culpa if I'm wrong.
I offered up my mea culpa when Danny signed Kemba

All the credit to Kemba, the guy balls out, has played big minutes and has only missed 6 games over the last 4 seasons!
BUT I'm skeptical of Kemba fending off Father Time after 8yrs of high/physical usage. Any kind of foot, ankle, knee, hip injury that slows him down renders him useless. His defense is below average now, I bet a 31yr old Kemba will struggle defensively during his 11th and 12th seasons. $35MM/yr will tie up cap space just when the rest of the roster could be hitting its prime.

If the Celtics sign him then I'm probably completely off base.
We had just witnessed at the time, with IT4, how quickly small PGs can go from 3rd in MVP voting to unplayable in 1 season.
 
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Saints Rest

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Yeah it's easy to look at it now and see an injured Kemba and the Jays averaging over 50 points per game and say it was a bad move, but there were a number of good reasons for it:

-The team was a mess chemistry-wise after 2019, and as much as anyone in the league, Kemba was a huge breath of fresh air. This is hard to quantify so I've no idea how much he helped in this regard, but it wasn't nothing.
-Tatum and Brown had averaged just 16 and 13 points per game in 2019, and Hayward under 12. Coming into the year there was no guarantee that Tatum and Brown would rebound from what seemed like steps back in their development, or that Hayward would ever play like he did in Utah.
-Kemba had missed a total of 6 games in the previous 4 seasons.

The events that have unfolded weren't impossible to see before the start of last year (Tatum/Brown ascending to all-NBA level scorers, Kemba getting hurt), but that doesn't make Kemba a bad acquisition. Even knowing what we know how, there's no guarantee that the Jays get to their current level without Kemba, who was excellent last year before his injury and took a ton of pressure off of them (I believe he was the leading scorer through January).
There is so much to like in this post, but the first bullet (the chemistry part) and the last sentence (the removal of pressure at the start of last year BEFORE the Jays became top-15 players) are dead-on.

Go back and read any of a number of threads or game threads before COVID hit. Kemba was the light to Kyrie's darkness. He was the joy again after a year of discontent.

This is not the Sandoval signing; this is closer to the Roosevelt Colvin signing.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Really? You had trouble seeing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown being eventual All-Stars? When they were 19/21 they made it to the ECF as the leading scorers and took Prime LeBron to 7 games. All you had to do is listen to Greg Popovich, Coach of USA basketball, describe JayCrew in the Summer of 2019 on USA basketball.

People need to stop looking at past performance and expecting it to be linear future performance when it comes to 20yr olds and 30yr olds.
Eventual all stars? Of course not. Immediately among the top scorers in the NBA? Pretty sure not many people would have seen that coming. The goal was to compete to win now while also developing Brown and Tatum into the players to lead the team for the next 10 years.

Brown and Tatum won't even be in their prime by the time Kemba is a free agent.
 

nighthob

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Great, except that 1. he wasn't on the team last year and 2. rozier isn't playing pg this year
There are a thousand reasons to not watch Charlotte basketball, we get that. And you should just admit that rather than pretending that you know what you're talking about. On/off #s produce a lot of noise for very good teams and very bad ones. The 2020 Hornets were in that latter category. Their best defensive forwards in 2020 were a rookie and the undead corpse of Marvin Williams.

Their starting Gs were the 6' Devonté Graham, one of the worst defensive Gs in the league, and the 6'1" Terry Rozier, usually tasked with defending the better G to free up Graham. Oh, and the Hornets had Biyombo and one of the 18 Zeller brothers anchoring the D. So the on/off numbers just aren't going to be terribly descriptive for them.

At this point, as even you've abandoned your original argument to keep running all around the globe to avoid admitting that maybe you're wrong, maybe just forget the discussion?
 

nighthob

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Eventual all stars? Of course not. Immediately among the top scorers in the NBA? Pretty sure not many people would have seen that coming. The goal was to compete to win now while also developing Brown and Tatum into the players to lead the team for the next 10 years.
Then all sorts of people must have had psychic powers because lots of people predicted it. We've been having rational discussions about how quickly Tatum reached the top ten since his rookie year as everyone could see the skills that he'd added to his game between the NCAA season and the NBA one. And others, like HRB, were giving similar forecasts for Brown based on a rational analysis of his physical abilities and the growth in his game between college and the pros and then year 1 and year 2.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Eventual all stars? Of course not. Immediately among the top scorers in the NBA? Pretty sure not many people would have seen that coming. The goal was to compete to win now while also developing Brown and Tatum into the players to lead the team for the next 10 years.

Brown and Tatum won't even be in their prime by the time Kemba is a free agent.
You couldn't see them turning into All-Stars?

BUT for some reason, it's perfectly clear to you that both are re-signing here in 2024 for 5yr deals
 

128

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I'll just continue to say now what I said then (see below from June 2019). Let JayCrew flourish and surround them with complementary, defense-first players that line up age-wise. That's not Kemba, and they should do everything in their power to get his value up this season to move him this Summer (they will have to subsidize it) before it gets worse the next 2yrs when JayCrew will be All-NBA (see they aren't that now but eventually they will be)
The defense clearly needs an upgrade, but the C's need to surround the Jays with some guys who can hit open jump shots, too. Otherwise the team's margin for error will be impossibly thin in games where (A) one of Tatum and Brown isn't playing or (B) Tatum and Brown don't combine for, say, at least 50 points.
 

benhogan

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Eventual all stars? Of course not. Immediately among the top scorers in the NBA? Pretty sure not many people would have seen that coming. The goal was to compete to win now while also developing Brown and Tatum into the players to lead the team for the next 10 years.

Brown and Tatum won't even be in their prime by the time Kemba is a free agent.
Yep, you definitely were the least optimistic on JayCrew and the most positive on Kemba 18mths ago. Guess you're going to die on that hill.

It's nearly impossible to win a title in nba history without at least one top 5-10 player, the Cs don't have anyone even close right now, and even in the most optimistic timeline there's a good chance neither Tatum or Brown ever becomes one. If you've got a chance to lock one in long term, whether that's Kemba (maybe not top 10, but very close), or gambling on Durant (probably a pipedream) I think you have to go for it. There's no one in next years class I'd be happy to have on a max deal unless AD to the Lakers blows up and he leaves, and who knows if they have any shot at any of the 2021 superstars that could become available.

If elite guy ends up being the next tier down who get overpaid because teams missed out on the actual superstars then hopefully Cs stay far far away and try to get creative.
 

benhogan

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The defense clearly needs an upgrade, but the C's need to surround the Jays with some guys who can hit open jump shots, too. Otherwise the team's margin for error will be impossibly thin in games where (A) one of Tatum and Brown isn't playing or (B) Tatum and Brown don't combine for, say, at least 50 points.
Sure that's fine, as long as you don't use a 4yr max contract on one that can't play defense and is on the wrong side of 30
 

scottyno

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Yep, you definitely were the least optimistic on JayCrew and the most positive on Kemba 18mths ago. Guess you're going to die on that hill.
18 months ago Kemba was an all NBA player, Tatum was a decent #2 or #3 and Brown wasn't even starting most games, neither of them looked like a guy ready to lead a team right now.

I also realized I think you read my answer wrong, no I had no trouble seeing them become eventual all stars, or at least borderline all-stars, but seriously, find many people who coming off of the 2019 season would have had Tatum AND Brown in the top 11 in scoring in the entire league so soon while also playing good defense and shooting efficiently.

The idea was always to bridge the gap for the next few years with top veteran talent until the Jays were ready so they could compete now and then compete later. Kemba was easily the best available realistic fit, last year it kind of worked out, this year it's tbd, by the time he's a free agent Brown will be 26 and Tatum 24, that's the time when you would hope they can actually compete for a title with 2 star wings just reaching their prime. By then Kemba will be gone and hopefully replaced by a younger all star.
 
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scottyno

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There are a thousand reasons to not watch Charlotte basketball, we get that. And you should just admit that rather than pretending that you know what you're talking about. On/off #s produce a lot of noise for very good teams and very bad ones. The 2020 Hornets were in that latter category. Their best defensive forwards in 2020 were a rookie and the undead corpse of Marvin Williams.

Their starting Gs were the 6' Devonté Graham, one of the worst defensive Gs in the league, and the 6'1" Terry Rozier, usually tasked with defending the better G to free up Graham. Oh, and the Hornets had Biyombo and one of the 18 Zeller brothers anchoring the D. So the on/off numbers just aren't going to be terribly descriptive for them.

At this point, as even you've abandoned your original argument to keep running all around the globe to avoid admitting that maybe you're wrong, maybe just forget the discussion?
Graham was apparently such a terrible defensive G last year that when he was on the court the Hornets were actually massively positive and when Rozier was on the court they were the worst team in the NBA. Must just be the noise of on off numbers that Rozier has been negative by a pretty decent amount his whole career. Yeah the 2020 Hornets sucked, but they sucked way more when Terry was actually playing.
 

nighthob

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Graham was apparently such a terrible defensive G last year that when he was on the court the Hornets were actually
On/off numbers are functionally useless except in the middle of the bell curve. Everyone knows that Graham is a really good offensive player and Charlotte scored more efficiently when he was on the floor. What it can’t ever tell you, without you actually watching a fucking game, is what’s going on and why.

We get it, you finally learned how to look up the on/off numbers on BBRef and think that you’ve discovered electricity. Ultimately Graham was a pretty bad defender which is why Charlotte used Rozier to take the tougher assignments. That didn’t mean that Rozier was good, just less bad.

Which is all beside your long abandoned point that if Boston didn’t sign Walker they wouldn’t have been able to sign anyone. You were wrong. Live with it. But we get that you’re going to argue forever as you even attempted to justify your laughable arguments at the time of the Walker signing that neither Tatum nor Brown would be all stars. Reading that post that Ben Hogan quoted tells me everything I need to know. Well almost everything. Your attempts to justify it complete the task.