Kemba 2021: The Jour-knee Begins

pjheff

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He sat out because OKC sucks. He's not prime Al, but he's wayyy too good to be a 4th center.
While not the ideal fit in Philadelphia or the ideal situation in Oklahoma City, Al’s numbers the last two years still look basically like his previous two years in Boston. And he’s always had an old man’s game. This trade accomplishes a number of short-term goals simultaneously without creating any long-term problems:

1) Obviously, it creates financial flexibility both this offseason and next, allowing Stevens to make decisions about guys like Fournier and Thompson.

2) It gives the team an opportunity to rediscover its defensive identity by subtracting Kemba and replacing him with a bigger backcourt while the wings assume more of the playmaking responsibilities.

3) It fills a leadership vacuum that was evident on last year’s squad, which can be difficult to pull off when bringing in someone from outside of the organization who is not going to be the best player.
 

SteveF

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I think I'd rather have Kemba and the 16th pick, but maybe things had deteriorated to the point where hanging onto Kemba wasn't feasible.

I guess this is $9 million less on the cap, so maybe that opens up options that wouldn't be otherwise available. Brown's deal is non-guaranteed.
 

radsoxfan

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Putting aside contracts entirely, I’d probably slightly prefer Horford to Kemba over the next 2 seasons given fit and likely projection. The 33M diff in guaranteed money makes it solidly worth the 16th pick.

I struggle to see how a better deal could be out there. The only other potential option would be a much bigger deal with a real asset (Jaylen + Kemba for a legit star perhaps), but I’m fine with this move.

Hopefully Horford has 20 minutes a night of slightly above average play in him.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I struggle to see how a better deal could be out there.
This, to me, is the key point. If there were other trade possibilities for Kemba where they could have moved him without sending the first-rounder along with him, but Stevens made this trade purely because Horford's 2022-23 salary is only partially guaranteed, then yeah I'd be pissed. But there is no conceivable way any team would have taken Kemba without that first-rounder or some other asset along with him, and frankly other than OKC I'm not sure any team would have been willing/would have the matching contracts to take on Kemba anyway.
 

nighthob

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I think I'd rather have Kemba and the 16th pick, but maybe things had deteriorated to the point where hanging onto Kemba wasn't feasible.
Stevens was coaching this last season and not doing college talent evaluation. Going forward with the draft would mean that Ainge was still running the show in a limited capacity (because he'd be the one making those decisions this year). Stevens gets off a deal that Boston had to move, improves the team's defense next year, and gets time remake the roster with NBA players and then focus on the '22 draft (which isn't nearly as good, but Stevens will have a year to unearth diamonds in the rough).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's funny that multiple people were stating with authority, less than 2 weeks ago, that there was no way Kemba could be traded. This was in the context of the dealing being something like for Horford for a pick lol.
I not surprised KW got moved; I'm just surprised that OKC would take on $30+M in salary for the #16 pick. Super happy they did though.
He's better than Kornet, I think. (Low bar, I know)
Not if Kornet can shoot 35% on 3Ps, but understand that's a big if.
 

Cellar-Door

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I not surprised KW got moved; I'm just surprised that OKC would take on $30+M in salary for the #16 pick. Super happy they did though.

Not if Kornet can shoot 35% on 3Ps, but understand that's a big if.
OKC doesn't care about salary, they were flirting with the floor last year and even after the Kemba trade are WAY below the floor now. No max FA are going there, so using the space to get picks is a no brainer for them, especially for a guy like Kemba who if he plays well next year they can probably rehab the value of.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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OKC doesn't care about salary, they were flirting with the floor last year and even after the Kemba trade are WAY below the floor now. No max FA are going there, so using the space to get picks is a no brainer for them, especially for a guy like Kemba who if he plays well next year they can probably rehab the value of.
That makes sense. Txs.
 

lovegtm

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OKC doesn't care about salary, they were flirting with the floor last year and even after the Kemba trade are WAY below the floor now. No max FA are going there, so using the space to get picks is a no brainer for them, especially for a guy like Kemba who if he plays well next year they can probably rehab the value of.
Which just makes the "stop talking about Kemba getting traded; it's not happening" talk even more ridiculous.
 

chilidawg

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Stevens was coaching this last season and not doing college talent evaluation. Going forward with the draft would mean that Ainge was still running the show in a limited capacity (because he'd be the one making those decisions this year). Stevens gets off a deal that Boston had to move, improves the team's defense next year, and gets time remake the roster with NBA players and then focus on the '22 draft (which isn't nearly as good, but Stevens will have a year to unearth diamonds in the rough).
SOSH would gladly have told him who to pick.
 

Devizier

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Which just makes the "stop talking about Kemba getting traded; it's not happening" talk even more ridiculous.
That, and the fact that we’re looking at like a billion dollars in contract signings this off-season. Only exaggerating slightly.
 

benhogan

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benhogan, thy wish has been granted. Kemba is gone.
Yep, worked out pretty much how many called it. Made the most sense to move him last summer, and keep Hayward but DAR couldn't get it done. Never cared for the Kemba signing to begin with, MJ with a two-handed slam on Danny's head.

We should probably stop challenging every Kemba rumor or fake trade idea with "yea, but who will start at PG"

They have 4 months to find a starting ballhandler(or Smart). Doubt very much that PP would be used at a starter, I like him but wouldn't be surprised if they packaged him this summer.

I like Al for Kemba straight up also Wade (a healthy Kemba can still be a 22pt/gm scorer as a 1/2 option).
Horford would give the C's two passing Centers dragging BIGs away from the rim. This opens the lane for JT/Brown who will start drawing fouls at a higher rate next season. TT is a great guy but clogs the lane on offense and doesn't do much on D other than gather rebounds.
It's funny that multiple people were stating with authority, less than 2 weeks ago, that there was no way Kemba could be traded. This was in the context of the dealing being something like for Horford for a pick lol.
yep deduct one point from the SoSH naysayers. Tristan+ is next on the block for a wing or ballhandler.

I think Al Horford is probably the Celtics' best center as of right now. (because TL is never healthy)
I expect we'll see Thompson moved and TL/Al sharing the C role, with Al occasionally playing some 4 in big lineups because he can shoot. (not many minutes, but a few here and there based on matchups).
I understand the health concerns, they are legit, but TL is by far the best Center on the Celtics (watching Capella is inspiring). If they load manage TL Kemba-style next season that may work. Handle him w/kid gloves all regular season and TL could make it through the playoffs. I would hate to see Al at the 4.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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If they load manage TL Kemba-style next season that may work. Handle him w/kid gloves all regular season and TL could make it through the playoffs. I would hate to see Al at the 4.
TL played 52 games last year and averaged just under 19 mpg and couldn't make it through the season. Even Kemba played 43 games last year. I mean I'm super rooting for the guy but not sure how much more he can load managed.
 

Jimbodandy

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TL played 52 games last year and averaged just under 19 mpg and couldn't make it through the season. Even Kemba played 43 games last year. I mean I'm super rooting for the guy but not sure how much more he can load managed.
He can't.

I love the kid too, and I get where folks are identifying him as "impact guy already on the roster" on a team that needs more impact guys and will have to find creative ways to get them on the roster.

However, some of us are whistling past the graveyard with this cat. If I'm Brad, I'm accounting for major TL downtime with my roster building and definitely using caution in locking up up long-term.
 

jasail

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He can't.

I love the kid too, and I get where folks are identifying him as "impact guy already on the roster" on a team that needs more impact guys and will have to find creative ways to get them on the roster.

However, some of us are whistling past the graveyard with this cat. If I'm Brad, I'm accounting for major TL downtime with my roster building and definitely using caution in locking up up long-term.
If that's the case, then isn't the best move to cash in on his upside and trade him?
 

cheech13

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If that's the case, then isn't the best move to cash in on his upside and trade him?
What kind of return would you expect for a backup center one year from free agency? He could be a solid throw in on a bigger deal but I don’t know that he fetched anything useful on his own.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If that's the case, then isn't the best move to cash in on his upside and trade him?
I doubt he has much value around the league. Bigs really are fungible. Most teams already have their version of TL or a stretch 5.

He also makes very little so would have to be traded for another player on their rookie deal or packaged with someone else.
 

nighthob

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If that's the case, then isn't the best move to cash in on his upside and trade him?
I’m one of the It’s time to move on crowd but trading centers for value is always tough. Charlotte might be a possibility. Miles Bridges’s came on like gangbusters late last year, and between Bridges, Hayward, and the F they’re likely adding at #11 might have PJ Washington available to use for a C upgrade.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I’m one of the It’s time to move on crowd but trading centers for value is always tough. Charlotte might be a possibility. Miles Bridges’s came on like gangbusters late last year, and between Bridges, Hayward, and the F they’re likely adding at #11 might have PJ Washington available to use for a C upgrade.
That would be a great get for TL.
 

Fishy1

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What kind of return would you expect for a backup center one year from free agency? He could be a solid throw in on a bigger deal but I don’t know that he fetched anything useful on his own.
As with free agency, all it takes is one team to overpay in a trade. The Celtics should explore their options, but also recognize that the team is astronomically better with him on the court than off it.

I don't think it's any accident they brought in Al, who's definitely still a starter -- TL's fragility made it clear that TT is a ground-bound rebound-eater, not a rim protector, and no team with Finals' aspirations should have a starting center who can't stay on the floor.

Even so, I'm sure the Celtics have had extension talks with TL. Locking him up on the cheap has tremendous upside for the future of this team and as a trade asset, and I'm sure there's precedent for guys like him getting healthy. There's a long list of NBA centers with bad knee or foot injuries early in their career who went on to be healthy for most of their 20's.

But as for guys who couldn't manage to stay healthy at 20 mpg for 50 games -- I don't know. I just have trouble seeing him ever being very healthy, even if I squint.
 

Cesar Crespo

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As with free agency, all it takes is one team to overpay in a trade. The Celtics should explore their options, but also recognize that the team is astronomically better with him on the court than off it.

I don't think it's any accident they brought in Al, who's definitely still a starter -- TL's fragility made it clear that TT is a ground-bound rebound-eater, not a rim protector, and no team with Finals' aspirations should have a starting center who can't stay on the floor.

Even so, I'm sure the Celtics have had extension talks with TL. Locking him up on the cheap has tremendous upside for the future of this team and as a trade asset, and I'm sure there's precedent for guys like him getting healthy. There's a long list of NBA centers with bad knee or foot injuries early in their career who went on to be healthy for most of their 20's.

But as for guys who couldn't manage to stay healthy at 20 mpg for 50 games -- I don't know. I just have trouble seeing him ever being very healthy, even if I squint.
Did they have popliteal artery entrapment syndrome in both knees?
 

jasail

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I’m one of the It’s time to move on crowd but trading centers for value is always tough. Charlotte might be a possibility. Miles Bridges’s came on like gangbusters late last year, and between Bridges, Hayward, and the F they’re likely adding at #11 might have PJ Washington available to use for a C upgrade.
Broadly, there are three ways forward with Rob: (1) resign him long term; (2) trade him now; and (3) sign and trade him as an RFA. Given his health issues, there are a contingent of fans who are skeptical about him consistently contributing not just next season, but over the long run. I'd assume these folks are adverse to resigning him, leaving two more likely options - trade now or sign and trade as an RFA. I guess my struggle here is, if this is where you are at, then does it not make sense to trade him now? This offseason, TL can be packaged with Smart, TT, picks and prospects to be traded for that 3rd piece. Next offseason, trades are more limited because your are constrained to only those teams that want him in a sign and trade, and as you point out stand alone trades for C's are difficult to get return value on. My preference is a bit of a 3rd way. I think TL is a great fit for this roster and I'd like to see how he can pan out. I'd prefer the C's to spend the next 15 months trying to use contracts (TT and Horford and to a lesser extent Smart) to build the financials to swing prospects and picks for a 3rd wheel. I'd like to not use Rob in that trade and keep him around to play him with this group. I guess much of this is all a bit rhetorical without knowing exactly what it will take to extend Rob because most of these decision points stem from his cost.
 
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benhogan

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TL played 52 games last year and averaged just under 19 mpg and couldn't make it through the season. Even Kemba played 43 games last year. I mean I'm super rooting for the guy but not sure how much more he can load managed.
Using COVID/short/crammed season isn't a great template in terms of games/mins/playability moving forward. But we don't have much to work with as far as data in regards to Rob

Kemba is unique in that his knee is degenerative, at 31 that knee is only getting worse.

Robert Williams, at 23, is still figuring out what works for him at the NBA level. I'd expect the Celtics to get better at figuring out TL's use since his upside is so spectacular and important.
 

Jimbodandy

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Exactly. He's more a time bomb than a Timelord.

EDIT: sorry for any and all puns, the narcotics they gave me for my appendectomy are making me a Bad Poster
Hell no. That's a great line. Congrats on the surgery. Don't be alarmed if you don't poop for a week or so. I didn't anyway.
 

benhogan

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I’m one of the It’s time to move on crowd but trading centers for value is always tough. Charlotte might be a possibility. Miles Bridges’s came on like gangbusters late last year, and between Bridges, Hayward, and the F they’re likely adding at #11 might have PJ Washington available to use for a C upgrade.
damn you Hob. Pull out my 2019 draft binky.

If they can't get TL on a very friendly team deal (3yrs $25MM/team option year 4) then PJW for Rob would be an interesting trade. PBS would have to do it.

Have a feeling Houston or the Pels may be the most interested in TimeLord, local kid, both could gamble on his upside.
 

Cesar Crespo

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damn you Hob. Pull out my 2019 draft binky.

If they can't get TL on a very friendly team deal (3yrs $25MM/team option year 4) then PJW for Rob would be an interesting trade. PBS would have to do it.

Have a feeling Houston or the Pels may be the most interested in TimeLord, local kid, both could gamble on his upside.
TL and Zion? I don't know. Maybe.

Houston has nothing we would want.
 

benhogan

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I would gamble on TL.
Ime got a firsthand look at Rob from the Nets bench in the playoffs.

With his defensive reputation, I imagine Ime's licking his chops at the thoughts off TL protecting the Celtics' rim.

Brad has made it crystal clear that the team is being built around the JAYs. A healthy Rob is a very attractive 5 to play alongside those two.

So you're probably right, and they'll gamble on his health.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I would gamble on TL.
I'd say the Cs kind of have to as they'd be selling pretty low right now and the Cs can't afford to miss his upside, even though it may be low probability. However, Brad is going to have work to do keeping TT and Al happy while they figure out if TL can make it through most of a season.

This is where the C's medical staff really will earn their keep.
 

dhellers

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I'd say the Cs kind of have to as they'd be selling pretty low right now and the Cs can't afford to miss his upside, even though it may be low probability. However, Brad is going to have work to do keeping TT and Al happy while they figure out if TL can make it through most of a season.

This is where the C's medical staff really will earn their keep.
I would be very suprised if Al cares at all. At this stage of his career, as an intelligent man he is bound to understand the calculus that conclues "play TL as much as possible, with the experience/aging big guy(s) being the secondary option(s)". And with the big $$ he is earning, I suspect he can find ways to mollify his ego.


TT: who knows? But if he squawks, his contract isn't that hard to get rid of.
 

TripleOT

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Thompson claims that he’s always loved the Celtics, and chose to come here as a FA. We may see how deep that love runs, especially if TL can stay on the court. If AL can still play at the level he played in OKC, he’s a better fit for minutes than Thompson.

Al missed around 13 games a season with the Celtics, and TL missed one-third of last season. Assuming he can’t be traded in a package for a much better players, having an experience, physical big like TT buy in to a lesser role would be huge for a first year coach.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I doubt he has much value around the league. Bigs really are fungible. Most teams already have their version of TL or a stretch 5.

He also makes very little so would have to be traded for another player on their rookie deal or packaged with someone else.
Yeah it’s going to be difficult to get much in return for a pure 5 who has always been red-flagged and is coming due for a new contract. TL has more value to us on his current deal than he will in a trade. Adding Horford all but ensures that Tristan has played his final game as a Celtic. I’d be surprised if we enter camp with anything other than Horford and TL as the primary 5’s although a multi-player deal including TL surely is a possibility.