Kelce vs. Gronk

Ale Xander · Sep 3, 2023

Gronk was a much better blocker, is more entertaining (Kelce isn't awful though) and was better in open space.

mauf · Sep 3, 2023

The GOAT TE debate is Gonzalez vs. Gronk. And we’ll have that debate forever, because they played the position in very different ways.

Kelce is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer but isn’t quite in the GOAT discussion for me — he can’t match Gonzalez’s receiving production and isn’t like having a 6th offensive lineman on running plays.

Seels · Sep 3, 2023

Maybe you can argue Kelce v Gronk as receivers. But then you have a guy who isn't even asked to block against maybe the greatest blocking TE ever.

If Gronk is healthy in 2012-2013/2016 he's probably seen as the greatest offensive player ever.

Also just going to leave this here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gronk-was-the-most-efficient-receiver-weve-seen/

Rico Guapo · Sep 3, 2023

Kelce is a giant slot reciever, his blocking sucks, Gronk is a complete TE who excelled at both pass catching and blocking.

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt · Sep 3, 2023

Agree with all the replies so far. It's not even the same ballpark b/c, in addition to being a dominating receiver at the position, Gronk played TE like an above-average OL, too. Kelce is a dynamic and crazy productive receiver in a giant body. Great player, not remotely in the conversation for best all-around TE of all-time.

88 MVP · Sep 3, 2023

I’m not sure how to find penalty statistics or quantify this, but I thought Gronk was so physically dominant that he was officiated differently — both in terms of the amount of contact that defenders could get away with, and the number of OPI calls that went against Gronk for doing things that other receivers and tight ends routinely did as well.

Maybe that’s a homer take, but it seems relevant.

Kliq · Sep 3, 2023

Gronk felt like he could gain 30lbs and be a pro-bowl RT.

mwonow · Sep 3, 2023

Gronk also impacted offensive sets in a totally unique way. When the Pats wanted to go no-huddle, the D was absolutely screwed - if they were heavy, Gronk would split wide and overwhelm a coverage LB/S, and if they were light, Gronk would play in tight and smash a LB or S in the running game. I've never seen another TE, or other player at any position, who could do that (and really, it would kind of have to be a TE who could catch and block - so not Kelce).

Bergs · Sep 3, 2023

It's Gronk and it's not even fucking close.

Edit: If he's healthy, Pats have another 2-3 rings.

tims4wins · Sep 3, 2023

Seels said:
Maybe you can argue Kelce v Gronk as receivers. But then you have a guy who isn't even asked to block against maybe the greatest blocking TE ever.

If Gronk is healthy in 2012-2013/2016 he's probably seen as the greatest offensive player ever.

Also just going to leave this here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gronk-was-the-most-efficient-receiver-weve-seen/

Not to mention, he’d have more than 3 rings. Like 2011 as a start.

PedroKsBambino · Sep 3, 2023

Kelce vs Wes Welker seems like a more apt comparsion in terms of how they contributed and played.

patinorange · Sep 3, 2023

Has Kelce ever broken a bone on the extra point team? Has he ever cost his team a game playing defense? I don't think so. Fucking Belichick. (I kid. kind of)

I think the comparison is apples vs. oranges. Two different type players. Peak Gronk is the greatest tight end ever. Kelce is a receiver, a damn good one, but not the same type of player as Gronk.

Seels · Sep 3, 2023

88 MVP said:
I’m not sure how to find penalty statistics or quantify this, but I thought Gronk was so physically dominant that he was officiated differently — both in terms of the amount of contact that defenders could get away with, and the number of OPI calls that went against Gronk for doing things that other receivers and tight ends routinely did as well.

Maybe that’s a homer take, but it seems relevant.

I thought so too. Very Shaq like response to officiating with Gronk. I remember the 2017 and 2018 championship games as being especially bad with him. The Jags and Chiefs mugged him all game and never got flagged for it.

PC Drunken Friar · Sep 3, 2023

Who cares? Ben Coates dominated. Keith Jackson before him.

Gronk is the GOAT

luckiestman · Sep 3, 2023

tims4wins said:
Not to mention, he’d have more than 3 rings. Like 2011 as a start.

Memory holing Tamper I see

Kenny F'ing Powers · Sep 3, 2023

1 - recency bias

2 - hatred for Patriots

3 - lack of knowledge (due to the defense/offense matchup game, a TE that can block/catch/release from in line is the queen of the chess board.)

Kelce is an amazing receiving tight end. He's not close to Gronk. Seriously.

Euclis20 · Sep 3, 2023

To play devils advocate for Kelce:

-Despite Gronk getting a four year head-start, Kelce is already miles past him in terms of receptions and yards and still going strong. He still probably needs three peak years left to catch Gronk in TDs which is no lock, but doable (and he'll only grow his lead in terms of catches and yards).
-Kelce has had Mahomes for 5 years now, but the first 4 years of his career were with solid but unspectacular Alex Smith, and Kelce still excelled (averaging 77 catches, 975 yards and 6 TDs, 3 pro bowls and 1 all-pro appearance). 620 of Gronk's 621 career receptions were thrown by Tom Brady. Like Montana /Rice/Young, greatness enhances greatness, but it's undeniable that Kelce has put up some of his numbers with lesser QB play compared with Gronk.
-Looking just at games played, it's painful to compare the two. Gronk played every game his first two years, then missed 34 games over his last nine seasons (not counting 2019, when he was retired). You can't write the story of his career without noting that he missed major chunks of multiple seasons, including perhaps the defining super bowl run of the Brady era. Kelce has missed just three games over his last nine seasons, and two of those were in the final week of the season, presumably just resting for the playoffs. Durability and being available matter, a lot more than much of this thread seems to think.

If the question is who was the best TE in their prime when they played, it's not even close. In his time, Gronk was a top 3 catching TE and a top 3 blocking TE, totally unstoppable. Somehow he was one of the league's deadliest deep threats and the most dangerous red zone player in the league. Kelce was a different sort of receiver (described above, accurately, as a jumbo version of Wes Welker) who has always been excellent at getting open and finding yards after the catch, a solid TD threat, and obviously he's very ordinary when called upon to block. If we go by peak performance, it's not close. If we go by career value it's close right now (Gronk has 97 career AV, Kelce has 100), but Kelce is still playing at an all-pro level, and is likely to separate over the next couple of years. I still think that taking into account his complete game Gronk will have a more impressive career, assuming Kelce trails off over the next 3-4 years.

The real GOAT alternative to Gronk isn't Kelce, it's Tony Gonzalez. 2 missed games in 17 years, 500 catches and 5000 yards ahead of Kelce and 19 more TDs than Gronk, and he has more pro bowls (14) than Gronk (5) and Kelce (8) combined. He lacks their playoff resume, but that can just as easily be flipped in his favor - instead of catching passes from Brady and Mahomes, his best QBs were Trent Green and Matt Ryan. Not that those guys were awful, but they don't belong in a discussion like this.

Food for thought: There are already analysts trying to make the argument that Mahomes right now is playing better than any QB ever. No one pretends that they are comparing careers, just peak play, but that will come if Mahomes plays at a similar level for another 5-6 years before trailing off into his late 30s like every other QB in league history not named Brady. 15 years from now, we're going to be having another peak performance vs career value argument, but instead of Kelce (or Gonzalez) vs Gronk, it's going to be Brady vs Mahomes.

SMU_Sox · Sep 4, 2023

Kelce played, usually, about 35-40% of his snaps in-line especially by the mid point of his career. Gronk was about 50-55%. Gronk did more as a blocker. Kelce is a HOFer.

Kelce is not a crap blocker. He’s fine in space and can holdup ok enough in-line.

Peak Gronk gives you everything Kelce can do + be a fantastic blocker.

Kelce is one of the best pass catchers who has ever played. Gronk wins here but we’re talking about two HOFers.

I think there is a unique profile for a TE like Kelce, Waller, Dalton Kincaid, etc. Guys who play less in-line but are more than just big slots. Kelce is the GOAT of that position. That position is just worth a little less than the dynamic in-line guy. So to me they are actually both GOATs.

Bongorific · Sep 4, 2023

Seels said:
Maybe you can argue Kelce v Gronk as receivers. But then you have a guy who isn't even asked to block against maybe the greatest blocking TE ever.

If Gronk is healthy in 2012-2013/2016 he's probably seen as the greatest offensive player ever.

Also just going to leave this here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gronk-was-the-most-efficient-receiver-weve-seen/

For non QBs, Rice, Moss, and Gronk are the most dominant offensive weapons I’ve seen.
I’m not old enough to have seen Jim Brown, but from what I’ve read and watched in highlights it’s the same.

Euclis20 · Sep 4, 2023

Bongorific said:
For non QBs, Rice, Moss, and Gronk are the most dominant offensive weapons I’ve seen.
I’m not old enough to have seen Jim Brown, but from what I’ve read and watched in highlights it’s the same.

I'll toss Marshall Faulk in there too, his problem is just the same as nearly every other RB - his prime was too short. From 1998-2001, he amassed 9k yards from scrimmage and scored 69 TDs (and was OPOY 3x and MVP once, with 2 2nd place finishes). He averaged 5 yards per carry and 84 catches per year, and he was the most important player on an offense that was first in both yards and points 3 straight years, and on the short list for best offenses of all time.

For my money, among non-QBs, Gronk was the best offensive player of the 2010s. I have no clue who could be 2nd.

Reverend · Sep 4, 2023

How much of what we’re calling Gronk’s durability issues do we think are a function of the fact that he played such a complete version of the position, both blocking and all forms of receiver, etc.?

Obviously, doesn’t change his career stats, but maybe a player can’t play the role Gronk did and also be durable? Or it might be less likely, anyway.

lars10 · Sep 4, 2023

Euclis20 said:
To play devils advocate for Kelce:

-Despite Gronk getting a four year head-start, Kelce is already miles past him in terms of receptions and yards and still going strong. He still probably needs three peak years left to catch Gronk in TDs which is no lock, but doable (and he'll only grow his lead in terms of catches and yards).
-Kelce has had Mahomes for 5 years now, but the first 4 years of his career were with solid but unspectacular Alex Smith, and Kelce still excelled (averaging 77 catches, 975 yards and 6 TDs, 3 pro bowls and 1 all-pro appearance). 620 of Gronk's 621 career receptions were thrown by Tom Brady. Like Montana /Rice/Young, greatness enhances greatness, but it's undeniable that Kelce has put up some of his numbers with lesser QB play compared with Gronk.
-Looking just at games played, it's painful to compare the two. Gronk played every game his first two years, then missed 34 games over his last nine seasons (not counting 2019, when he was retired). You can't write the story of his career without noting that he missed major chunks of multiple seasons, including perhaps the defining super bowl run of the Brady era. Kelce has missed just three games over his last nine seasons, and two of those were in the final week of the season, presumably just resting for the playoffs. Durability and being available matter, a lot more than much of this thread seems to think.

If the question is who was the best TE in their prime when they played, it's not even close. In his time, Gronk was a top 3 catching TE and a top 3 blocking TE, totally unstoppable. Somehow he was one of the league's deadliest deep threats and the most dangerous red zone player in the league. Kelce was a different sort of receiver (described above, accurately, as a jumbo version of Wes Welker) who has always been excellent at getting open and finding yards after the catch, a solid TD threat, and obviously he's very ordinary when called upon to block. If we go by peak performance, it's not close. If we go by career value it's close right now (Gronk has 97 career AV, Kelce has 100), but Kelce is still playing at an all-pro level, and is likely to separate over the next couple of years. I still think that taking into account his complete game Gronk will have a more impressive career, assuming Kelce trails off over the next 3-4 years.

The real GOAT alternative to Gronk isn't Kelce, it's Tony Gonzalez. 2 missed games in 17 years, 500 catches and 5000 yards ahead of Kelce and 19 more TDs than Gronk, and he has more pro bowls (14) than Gronk (5) and Kelce (8) combined. He lacks their playoff resume, but that can just as easily be flipped in his favor - instead of catching passes from Brady and Mahomes, his best QBs were Trent Green and Matt Ryan. Not that those guys were awful, but they don't belong in a discussion like this.

Food for thought: There are already analysts trying to make the argument that Mahomes right now is playing better than any QB ever. No one pretends that they are comparing careers, just peak play, but that will come if Mahomes plays at a similar level for another 5-6 years before trailing off into his late 30s like every other QB in league history not named Brady. 15 years from now, we're going to be having another peak performance vs career value argument, but instead of Kelce (or Gonzalez) vs Gronk, it's going to be Brady vs Mahomes.

Feel like Mahomes has had the better receivers over his career so far.. but maybe he’s similar to Brady in that he makes his receivers better.. would be interesting to see what Brady would have done with in their prime Moss or Hill though.

Euclis20 · Sep 4, 2023

Reverend said:
How much of what we’re calling Gronk’s durability issues do we think are a function of the fact that he played such a complete version of the position, both blocking and all forms of receiver, etc.?

Obviously, doesn’t change his career stats, but maybe a player can’t play the role Gronk did and also be durable? Or it might be less likely, anyway.

His durability issues were related to just how difficult he was to tackle once he got moving. He got hurt blocking too, but every defender knew the only way to take him down as to go low and hard, and that's how it went. Everyone wonders what Lebron would look like as an NFL player...he'd be Gronk, absolutely impossible to tackle in the open field, but always missing time to injury because of the extra hits, and ultimately aging faster than people expect because of it.

lars10 said:
Feel like Mahomes has had the better receivers over his career so far.. but maybe he’s similar to Brady in that he makes his receivers better.. would be interesting to see what Brady would have done with in their prime Moss or Hill though.

He definitely had better receivers in his 20s than Brady did. We'll see what happens when Kelce finally ages out, but I think he'll be more than fine. Hill went to Miami, and Mahomes didn't miss a bit. If Kelce gets hurt then KC's has a bottom 5 group of skill players, but Mahomes still [deservedly] won MVP last year.

lars10 · Sep 4, 2023

Euclis20 said:
His durability issues were related to just how difficult he was to tackle once he got moving. He got hurt blocking too, but every defender knew the only way to take him down as to go low and hard, and that's how it went. Everyone wonders what Lebron would look like as an NFL player...he'd be Gronk, absolutely impossible to tackle in the open field, but always missing time to injury because of the extra hits, and ultimately aging faster than people expect because of it.

He definitely had better receivers in his 20s than Brady did. We'll see what happens when Kelce finally ages out, but I think he'll be more than fine. Hill went to Miami, and Mahomes didn't miss a bit. If Kelce gets hurt then KC's has a bottom 5 group of skill players, but Mahomes still [deservedly] won MVP last year.

Part of me wonders how much Gronk's injury history are his own doing.. he's an atypical football player who has always been aware of how short his career would be... there are stories about how he never spent a dime of his career earnings or how he always had a party bus, etc. He's a smart businessman as well as a great football player... so I've always wondered if he at some point sort of stepped back to preserve his body for later years. He's always seemed like he knew he was an amazing football player but there was more to life than that, imo.

edit: he was also impossible to tackle unless you took out his knees.. and he did fight for every yard in his prime so that sort of negates my hypothesis..

tims4wins · Sep 4, 2023

luckiestman said:
Memory holing Tamper I see

Yep

rodderick · Sep 4, 2023

lars10 said:
Feel like Mahomes has had the better receivers over his career so far.. but maybe he’s similar to Brady in that he makes his receivers better.. would be interesting to see what Brady would have done with in their prime Moss or Hill though.

Mahomes is absolutely in the category of QB that makes his receivers better. I think we may have to make our peace with the fact that barring injury, he'll be a top 3 QB of all time at worst when his career is over. It's crazy to think Brady likely defended his GOAT status in his 40s with the wins over the Chiefs in 2018 and 2020. We're talking two games from being 5 titles to 4 in his favor instead of 7 to 2.

That being said, Kelce is amazing and I think due to his play style Brady would target him 15 times a game had he been a Patriot. The consistency and ability to carry a meh receiving corps by drawing coverage and being available and productive week in and week out is a huge feather in his cap. I don't think after 2012 the Patriots went into any season building a roster predicated on Gronk being healthy, and the fact that KC can do that helps them immensely. All that to say that with both players healthy and ready to go, Gronkowski is in another plane of existence in contrast to Kelce. It's kind of like comparing Stefon Diggs to Megatron or something like that. Maybe the raw numbers are comparable, but he's just a different beast altogether.

Eddie Jurak · Sep 4, 2023

Peak healthy Gronk obviously is better player. Gronk as he actually was is probably also the better player. But does someone like Kelce have a chance to pass him by in career value because Kelce has been so much more durable?

In his 9 years with the Pats, Gronk missed 29 games, almost 2 seasons worth. He also missed 7 of 23 playoff games, including whole playoff runs in 2013, 2016, and 2019. He also played hurt (and was ineffective as a receiver) in the SB loss to the Giants, which might have made the difference in that game.

Kelce played only one snap (on special teams!) in his rookie year, but since then he has missed only 3 games in 9 years. He did not play in the CHiefs' one playoff game in his rookie year, but he played in all 18 since.

If you want to make an argument for Kelce being better it would be that Gronk is useless off the field, where he spent a lot of time due to injuries.

sodenj5 · Sep 4, 2023

The answer is Gronk. I think that both Gronk and Kelce are going to be first ballot Hall of Famers.

Gronk was a physical presence that no one in the league had an answer for. He made the run-PA game significantly more effective because of how dominant he was as a blocker. Teams would have to honor his ability as a blocker and therefore he got more advantageous matchups against LBs than most of the lighter move TEs do.

Kelce is a tremendous receiver and isn’t Gesicki levels of bad as a blocker, but his game is really one dimensional whereas peak Gronk remains one of the most dominant players on the field at all times. The only thing capable of slowing Gronk down was his own body over time.

Old Fart Tree · Sep 4, 2023

luckiestman said:
Memory holing Tamper I see

LOL I guess we don’t count that one even though he had two tuddies

Reverend · Sep 4, 2023

Euclis20 said:
His durability issues were related to just how difficult he was to tackle once he got moving. He got hurt blocking too, but every defender knew the only way to take him down as to go low and hard, and that's how it went. Everyone wonders what Lebron would look like as an NFL player...he'd be Gronk, absolutely impossible to tackle in the open field, but always missing time to injury because of the extra hits, and ultimately aging faster than people expect because of it.

lars10 said:
Part of me wonders how much Gronk's injury history are his own doing.. he's an atypical football player who has always been aware of how short his career would be... there are stories about how he never spent a dime of his career earnings or how he always had a party bus, etc. He's a smart businessman as well as a great football player... so I've always wondered if he at some point sort of stepped back to preserve his body for later years. He's always seemed like he knew he was an amazing football player but there was more to life than that, imo.

edit: he was also impossible to tackle unless you took out his knees.. and he did fight for every yard in his prime so that sort of negates my hypothesis..

Sorta reminds me of the theorized possibility that, really, Bo Jackson pulled his own damn hip out of the socket trying to get more yards. All while putting in the extra it takes to try to take him down. If that’s the case, you don’t get the athletic freak Bo Jackson without the catastrophically injured Bo Jackson; they’re a paired set.

Euclis20 · Sep 4, 2023

Reverend said:
Sorta reminds me of the theorized possibility that, really, Bo Jackson pulled his own damn hip out of the socket trying to get more yards. All while putting in the extra it takes to try to take him down. If that’s the case, you don’t get the athletic freak Bo Jackson without the catastrophically injured Bo Jackson; they’re a paired set.

Indeed. In retrospect, we're lucky he lasted as long as he did. After 2012 and 2013 it seemed like he might never be healthy again, and he ended up playing in four of his last five postseasons in New England. Very effectively too: 11 games, 60 receptions, 840 yards and 9 TDs.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Sep 4, 2023

Reverend said:
How much of what we’re calling Gronk’s durability issues do we think are a function of the fact that he played such a complete version of the position, both blocking and all forms of receiver, etc.?

Obviously, doesn’t change his career stats, but maybe a player can’t play the role Gronk did and also be durable? Or it might be less likely, anyway.

Euclis20 said:
His durability issues were related to just how difficult he was to tackle once he got moving. He got hurt blocking too, but every defender knew the only way to take him down as to go low and hard, and that's how it went. Everyone wonders what Lebron would look like as an NFL player...he'd be Gronk, absolutely impossible to tackle in the open field, but always missing time to injury because of the extra hits, and ultimately aging faster than people expect because of it.

I know you briefly alluded to it, but the broken arm he got while blocking on a PAT lead to four surgeries and was one of the major hinderences in his career. Id bet his chronic back issues were impacted more by blocking as well.

I mean, the guy suffered ridiculous injuries from getting hit, but I wouldn't shrug off the grind that blocking had on his health. Be it his arm, back, or even the brain impacts he took that could have contributed to his concussion (purely speculative).

Kelce vs. Gronk

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