July MLB thread
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Why would he stay in that organization when he can go to the Dodgers and be part of a contender every year? I feel like the Angels would have to offer something like 10/800 to get me to consider staying if I was him. And since the CBA passed the year before he came over probably cost him $200M+ on his first US deal, that might make it interesting, getting that money back on top of the record-setting deal.
When he leaves in the off-season it won't equal ticket sales either. After the trade deadline, we're talking about the difference in attendance for 29 home games of a team out of contention. Take the huge haul.
33k a game, 11th in MLB
More than Boston (much higher capacity of course), San Fran and Arlington
I'm not nearly as sure on this front as you are - mostly because I lived through the Mookie Betts saga here and we have ongoing discussions three years later about that decision to trade a player who was widely expected to test free agency (before COVID). The decision to trade a player the caliber of an Ohtani isn't just about return, it's about what the fans take from it in terms of how they view their team. The Sox got their replacement RF, current starting catcher, and got rid of a bad contract (and a bust of a Top 100 prospect in Downs). I feel like the Ohtani package, even if logically for a two month rental, needs to be HUGE beyond reasonable minds to justify the trade.
Like, unless they completely botch the trade, a return for Ohtani should exceed his on the field value to a fringe wild card team (at best) for the last two months of the year...but that may matter less than the other elements of this. Do the Angels really want to deal with years of fan flack and even organizational strife for not just failing to take advantage of having two of the preeminent generational players but then trading one when the team isn't 100% dead in the water? I don't think so. I think it's going to take an absurd package of financial relief, and present and future talent to get there. I think that also needs to be combined with some major messaging of "Ohtani wasn't coming back here even if we gave him a billion dollars" type stuff. And even then, I'm not sure how recoverable that is.
Orioles have been pretty lucky, outperforming their pythag considerably, 16-9 in one run games. On the other hand all the Rays stats are driven by their monster first 6 weeks of the season against pretty lousy competition. They've been basically a .500 team with a modest run differential since then. Rays desperately need some pitching help. Should be an interesting race. Wouldn't count anyone in the East out right now. Both BAL and TB could fall back to the pack.
I was thinking about this - I think the ideal outcome for the Angels would be to get multiple pieces who are already MLB contributers and who are going to stick around for a while rather than prospect lotto tickets, even if that prospect is a can't-miss Ronald-Acuna-in-2018 type. I think a blueprint of this trade - Let me be clear, I know this one would never happen! - would be something like this:
Mariners Get:
Ohtani
Angels Get:
George Kirby
Jarred Kelenic
Andres Munoz
Is there a contender who would make a trade like that? Is there a contender who could make a trade like that?
Tampa needs to make a decision on whether or not to go for it all by the trading deadline. They have the assets to trade, but have been stingy in the past.
Baltimore is just red hot right now. They could go all in as well, but DeAngelos is a cheap SOB so there is zero chance that they take on salary even if the player would guarantee them a World Series win. I have some friends who are Orioles fans. I legit fee bad for them because their ownership sucks.
Toronto is one of the more surprising teams this year and not in a good way. Before the ASB, they were on pace for an 89 win season. They were in some pre-season pools as WS contenders. That said, if any team could catch up to TB and Baltimore and take the division it would be them.
NYY are just a different team without Judge. He took batting practice yesterday but there is no timetable for his return. Until then...
Agree they should / will move Ohtani. Not like Trout doesn't draw fans tho. A guy who should be a unanimous first ballot HoFer... just no WS.
If management is safe, they should move Ohtant and Trout. They arent't gonna do shit post-seasons wise in the next next 5-10 years. Trade Ohtani and Trout, Run the the Astros early 2010s plan with massive early draft picks.
TBH Trout... and now Ohtani has kept them in purgatory
edit - picked a random pre Covid,, height of Trout year - 2015 - and LAA were 5th in attendance.... Both per ESPN... now LAA was 13 in 2022
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I think you're on the right track. It'd be insane for the M's to make that kind of trade barring having a reasonable shot at extending Ohtani, but I think that's what the Angels would want and might need to justify trading Ohtani away. I would imagine the Angels' GM is probably looking at the most recent big deals and while Washington got some legitimately good prospects (their current starting catcher, SS, and two SPs were from the Soto and Scherzer/Turner trades, with Hassell and Wood in the minors being all promising), that's still a long wait. I imagine the template that's viable for teams trading for Ohtani is a bit of a beefed up Betts trade - an MLB ready Ohtani-replacement at least at one of his two positions, a high end prospect, and a couple other valuable pieces. No one would be happy but otherwise I think I'd rather run out the clock and put my best offer out there to him.
It's just a lot easier to look in as a fan of another team and say "they definitely should do this" as opposed to being the fan of the team trading away a fan favorite superstar for like...a couple decent pieces. The best deal the Angels may get is something like James Outman, Dalton Rushing, and Bobby Miller and say: well that's three young, cost controlled talent including the replacement in the OF, replacement at SP, and a high upside catching prospect, and Angels fans would be mad because they traded the best player in baseball for currently league average talent and Dodgers fans may be mad if Ohtani leaves for SF or SEA and they gave up three strong young players for a rental.
I would be genuinely surprised if the Angels can find a deal they and another team would be happy with without Ohtani extending in the new destination.
I think that's kind of underestimating the floor for an Ohtani trade, cause it doesn't really take into account the inevitable bidding war. He's the highest impact player in baseball. It's not just about getting him for yourself, it's also about keeping him away from your rivals.
Does Ohtani's double injury risk affect this in some way?
Maybe already baked in for this mega contract. @DaveRoberts'Shoes @radsoxfan - If a P gets UCL repair, would being able to hit / DH 'be allowed' for recovery ?
Maybe already baked in for this mega contract. @DaveRoberts'Shoes @radsoxfan - If a P gets UCL repair, would being able to hit / DH 'be allowed' for recovery ?
This already happened to him in 2019, he did not pitch the entire season after Tommy John surgery but had over 400 ABs DHing.
Not at the outset but definitely can return far sooner as a hitter.
Returning to pitching 1 year+, but as a hitter 6 months or even sooner.
Most likely they would time any surgery for the off-season so there is little risk of him missing an entire season of hitting.
Right, looking at my example "template" deal again, I imagine most people's reaction to that - especially Mariner fans! - is something like "Hm, Kirby is a steep price to pay as part of a package for a rental, wouldn't they rather give up Gilbert/Woo/Miller instead?" And of course they would! But if you're the Angels, why would you settle for one of those guys when you're offering Shohei Ohtani? So I think that's illustrative of the challenge here in getting a deal done - teams don't want to give up so much that they're hampering their inability to win games in the present and setting themselves up for two months of Tungsten Arm jokes followed by Ohtani's unceremonious departure, and the Angels don't want to wind up with a potentially underwhelming return like in your Dodgers scenario above.
I don't know that any of this means that they shouldn't trade him or won't trade him, just noting the complexities here.
And if it hadn't already happened with Ohtani, we'd still have Bryce Harper as a more recent example of coming back from Tommy John surgery to DH before he was cleared to throw.
Pirates top pitching prospect Quinn Priester has retired the first 9 major league batters he's faced on just 25 pitches... well, first 9 "major league" batters... it is just the Guardians after all.
Is the idea that if the Angels ask for a ton for Ohtani, don’t get it, keep him and lose him for nothing, there won’t be a fan backlash? If so, I don’t buy it. No one will blame Ohtani for leaving LAA no matter what they offer him, and I imagine whomever the GM is will get canned soon anyways.
He’s made it pretty clear he’s not going to resign there, that gives them permission to move him. They should do it.
He’s made it pretty clear he’s not going to resign there, that gives them permission to move him. They should do it.
It seems like the more at-bats Byron Buxton gets, the worse he hits. He's now down to .196/.285/.409 and striking out in 31.3% of his at-bats (his worst rate since 2016. Guy needs to get injured again.
Also, remember how the shift ban was going to rejuvenate Max Kepler's career? He's having his worst season ever. Even after a good night, he's batting .214/.283/.418. He and Buxton have combined for less bWAR than teammate Michael A. Taylor.
Also, remember how the shift ban was going to rejuvenate Max Kepler's career? He's having his worst season ever. Even after a good night, he's batting .214/.283/.418. He and Buxton have combined for less bWAR than teammate Michael A. Taylor.
I had to look it up, but these stats for Ohtani are just ridiculous. Of every major pitching and hitting category, he leads basically everything. His worst 2 categories are strikeouts (4th of 139) and batting average(4th .301). I can't see how he could possibly sustain that, but it really defines just how good this guy is. Just unreal.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml
Jays are having a normal one at home vs. the Padres. First, Alek Manoah needed 40 pitches to get out of the first, then after a walk in the second, pitching coach Pete Walker was tossed by HP ump Malachi Moore when he went to the mound to break up the visit. Whoever was with Shulman in the booth objected to Moore sitting there for a second letting Walker run his mouth before tossing him.
Cleveland demoted Logan Allen a few weeks ago because he wasn't aggressive or efficient enough as well as to lighten his workload (3 consecutive starts in which he failed to go 5, despite having a large lead in 2 of them). They couldn't have asked for better results tonight – 5 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K – 77 stress-free pitches with a 5-run lead before he stepped on the mound and he saves some bullets for another day.
Just realized every team being on their #4 or #5 starters (if they even have that depth) coming out of the break is probably a big factor on tonight's games.
View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1681523532038311936
View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1681523532038311936
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