The way that I frame it is, if the two of them were flipped team-wise, what would be the public view of them?I've spent some time thinking about this and have come to the conclusion that it's an unfair question.
Judge has all the traditional five tools at a high level, has the non-existent clutch gene, and by all accounts is nothing but a positive presence in the dugout and for the game.
Ohtani is a unicorn.
It's an impossible comparison.
Hypotheticals are complicated. Ohtani has gotten absolutely shelled in his two starts so far in Yankee Stadium, 3.2 innings and 11 ERs combined, tied for his worst game score in both 2021 and 2022.The way that I frame it is, if the two of them were flipped team-wise, what would be the public view of them?
And in that framing, I feel like if Judge put up this season on the Angels it would be noted, but not a huge deal, whereas if Ohtani was doing his 2022 season on the NYY, the baseball world would be stopping every time he played
If we assume everything else is the same and that Ohtani won the MVP with the Yankees the previous year, then no, I don't think the baseball world would be stopping every time he played this season, even with the Yankees. And I do think that chasing the AL record for HRs and a triple crown would be a huge deal with the Angels or any other team.The way that I frame it is, if the two of them were flipped team-wise, what would be the public view of them?
And in that framing, I feel like if Judge put up this season on the Angels it would be noted, but not a huge deal, whereas if Ohtani was doing his 2022 season on the NYY, the baseball world would be stopping every time he played
Absolutely spot on true.If we assume everything else is the same and that Ohtani won the MVP with the Yankees the previous year, then no, I don't think the baseball world would be stopping every time he played this season, even with the Yankees. And I do think that chasing the AL record for HRs and a triple crown would be a huge deal with Angels or any other team.
I think the fresher story will always get a lot more hype in the media.
Yeah, I don't really by the narrative that Ohtani is somehow doing all of this anonymously. Playing for the Angels on the West Coast hurts his profile to an extent, but people still talk about him all the time, marvel at what he is doing, share his feats all over social media and MLB pushes anytime he does anything really hard on social media. He doesn't have the same cultural cache as LeBron, or Patrick Mahomes, but that isn't going to happen for any baseball player, really.Absolutely spot on true.
I hate to think that the public at large might be getting bored of Ohtani already. His team being awful doesn't help, but then again he HAS gotten plenty of attention for his accomplishments despite the fact that the Angels are terrible.
Anecdotally, I went to see Ohtani start against the Twins last Friday, in Minneapolis, on a shitty weather day, and there was a sizable contingent of Japanese and Japanese-American fans there purely to see Ohtani, waving the Japanese flag around etc... as well as a lot of other people wearing Ohtani gear that were...from out of town? It reminded me a little bit of Pedro starting at Fenway circa 1999 (on a much smaller scale because this was on the road between two dead-end teams) when the Dominican flags would be everywhere and it sort of transcended baseball. It was pretty cool.Yeah, I don't really by the narrative that Ohtani is somehow doing all of this anonymously. Playing for the Angels on the West Coast hurts his profile to an extent, but people still talk about him all the time, marvel at what he is doing, share his feats all over social media and MLB pushes anytime he does anything really hard on social media. He doesn't have the same cultural cache as LeBron, or Patrick Mahomes, but that isn't going to happen for any baseball player, really.
My friend is a pathological contrarian who HATES Ohtani because he is annoyed how much coverage he gets.
Did they stop giving Gold Gloves to pitchers? He plays the field once a week or so, and is pretty good at it:Judge doesn’t pitch but Ohtani doesn’t play the field, I feel like people leave that part out sometimes.
FTFYNo he just moved there a few weeks ago,because NY had so little support around him with injuries and underperformanceso he could get as many ABs as possible while chasing the HR record.
Going backwards:Dear Voter:
There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.
The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.
Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.
There was a decent debate but Cabrera won the MVP in his Triple Crown season.Anecdotally, this reminds be a little bit of the year that Cabrera won the Triple Crown but didn't win MVP because Trout had more WAR since he was a vastly better baserunner and defender and still had amazing offensive numbers.
People were saying this about Christian Yelich in 2018 and 2019, and Harper in 2021.Judge is the premier power hitter in all of baseball.
I don't think it's at all realistic to think he will repeat it this 2022 season. It's an outlier. BUT...over his career, he's averaged a homer every 12.0 at-bats (11.96). If he plays a full season and gets 550 at-bats, that's 46 homers. That's still basically the best power hitter in the game. Right now there are just 2 guys in baseball who have hit 40+ homers this year: Judge (61) and Alonso (40).People were saying this about Christian Yelich in 2018 and 2019, and Harper in 2021.
Judge is having an amazing season at age 30, but there's no reason to assume he's going to repeat it.
Aren't you kind of answering your own question here? Ohtani fills two huge roster spots. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one huge roster spot?The problem with Ohtani is that while yes, he fills two huge spots on the roster, IF he gets hurt, now you need to REPLACE two spots. Now you'd need a starting pitcher AND a power hitter. So there's pluses and minuses to a guy like this.
Interesting question.
It's not that simple. A guy that fills two leaves two holes should he get injured. Moreover, signing Judge not only helps the Sox, it hurts their primary division rival in a major way.Aren't you kind of answering your own question here? Ohtani fills two huge roster spots. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one huge roster spot?
Thats a good point. The Yankees lose 10 WAR, and we gain 10 WAR.It's not that simple. A guy that fills two leaves two holes should he get injured. Moreover, signing Judge not only helps the Sox, it hurts their primary division rival in a major way.
I get the injury concern but he still fills two holes. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one? Your roster spots are limited and you get to carry a #1 pitcher who is also a top end middle of the order bat freeing up an extra roster spot. I get if he gets injured, you have to fill two jobs but since he's doing two jobs, you already have an extra person on the roster.It's not that simple. A guy that fills two leaves two holes should he get injured. Moreover, signing Judge not only helps the Sox, it hurts their primary division rival in a major way.
Yes you have the extra person, but he's a bench caliber guy, not a starting caliber guy. You can't afford to pay Ohtani AND pay a starting caliber guy to be on the bench. So now you have to elevate TWO bench caliber guys to fill the SP and DH spots formerly occupied at an All-Star level.I get the injury concern but he still fills two holes. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one? Your roster spots are limited and you get to carry a #1 pitcher who is also a top end middle of the order bat freeing up an extra roster spot. I get if he gets injured, you have to fill two jobs but since he's doing two jobs, you already have an extra person on the roster.
Sigh. Only if you think he's going to clonk 60+ HR next year as well.Thats a good point. The Yankees lose 10 WAR, and we gain 10 WAR.
You know, one thing you could do with the extra spot is to carry 2 players with heavy platoon splits. That way you'd get something of real boost in that aggregate position. Possibly much cheaper than signing/extending a single player as an all-rounder. 1B seems the obvious place for something like that.Yes you have the extra person, but he's a bench caliber guy, not a starting caliber guy. You can't afford to pay Ohtani AND pay a starting caliber guy to be on the bench. So now you have to elevate TWO bench caliber guys to fill the SP and DH spots formerly occupied at an All-Star level.
I'm not saying you're wrong - Ohtani might be the 100% right call here. I'm just pushing back a little for the sake of discussion.
Let's say he only is a 7 WAR player next year with 45 homers instead of 60+. His best 5 seasons he's put up:Sigh. Only if you think he's going to clonk 60+ HR next year as well.
Yep possible. I do wonder what they'll do with Casas - let him sink or swim against LHPs, or go with a platoon. This is where it would be REALLY frigging nice if Bobby Dalbec would truly become a legit lefty masher in the majors. Because that would be PERFECT.You know, one thing you could do with the extra spot is to carry 2 players with heavy platoon splits. That way you'd get something of real boost in that aggregate position. Possibly much cheaper than signing/extending a single player as an all-rounder. 1B seems the obvious place for something like that.
So, you worked for the Marlins in 2015 - or the Yanks in 2017?Let's say he only is a 7 WAR player next year with 45 homers instead of 60+. His best 5 seasons he's put up:
155 g, 8.0 bWAR
112 g, 5.9 bWAR
102 g, 5.6 bWAR
148 g, 6.0 bWAR
151 g, 10.4 bWAR
TOT: 668 g, 35.9 bWAR
Average of 0.54 bWAR per game. So if he plays 140 games next year, it's reasonable for him to be projected at 7.5 bWAR. So 7 is reasonable.
Sox add 7 bWAR, Yankees lose 7 bWAR. That's nice for Boston, not so nice for NY. Now the Yankees would be able to fill that hole with probably a pretty good player, but it won't be able to fill a 7.0 bWAR hole.
Ha! I wish. I'd love a major league job!So, you worked for the Marlins in 2015 - or the Yanks in 2017?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtmlHa! I wish. I'd love a major league job!
Depends on the injury though. He can still hit if he gets a blister or sore arm. If it’s a more serious injury like a knee sprain or something, then absolutely.It's not that simple. A guy that fills two leaves two holes should he get injured. Moreover, signing Judge not only helps the Sox, it hurts their primary division rival in a major way.
In his time with the Marlins, Stanton averaged 5.06 bWAR over 140 games. Judge has averaged 7.13 bWAR over 140 games. I'm using 140 to account for some injuries, or else I'd go with 162.
But I want to talk about Judge vs. Ohtani. I know Judge is going to win the MVP, and rightly so
I have to admit I'm not sure I noticed these the first time around, and thought this was meant to be an MVP discussion. It doesn't look like I'm the only one as most of the conversation was centered around who deserved the MVP, and with apologies to the OP, that's what I want to ask about now. I'm curious if anyone's opinions have changed about MVP since the original discussion took place. Since the thread was started:I'm not asking who should be the MVP. It's Judge.
So you're only comparing a player with his teammates to determine who should be MVP? That would mean the MVP is the best player on the worst team every year.To address the MVP question, Judge led his team in almost every offensive category with #'s that were also good enough to lead the AL in all but AVG. Trout didn't qualify, but including him anyway since he just missed, Ohtani was 1st or 2nd on the team in almost every offensive category, and was 1st in every pitching category: 2nd in OPS & HR, T-1st in XBH, 1st in G, PA, H, BB, R, and RBI. Then *also* 1st in GS, IP, W, ERA, WHIP, K, FIP, etc.
As I noted upthread, one of the instructions to voters is to consider "Actual value of a player to his team." Judge is absolutely essential to the Yankees' offense. Ohtani is absolutely essential to the Angels, period.
Ohtani is my MVP.
No, not only. That is kind of inescapably part of it though? It's also an argument for Judge against the rest of the non-Ohtani field -- save for maybe Rizzo he had pitifully little consistent help from the rest of the Yankees bats.So you're only comparing a player with his teammates to determine who should be MVP?
Even if the answer to the first question was yes, no it wouldn't. The Reds had one qualified hitter this year, and he had an OPS+ of 90. Do you think I'm advocating for his MVP consideration?That would mean the MVP is the best player on the worst team every year.
Right, I should have said best good player on a bad team. I don't think you'd be arguing for Judge to be the MVP if he were on the Tigers, even though he'd be far and away the most valuable player on his team.No, not only. That is kind of inescapably part of it though? It's also an argument for Judge against the rest of the non-Ohtani field -- save for maybe Rizzo he had pitifully little consistent help from the rest of the Yankees bats.
Even if the answer to the first question was yes, no it wouldn't. The Reds had one qualified hitter this year, and he had an OPS+ of 90. Do you think I'm advocating for his MVP consideration?
I would have thought it goes without saying that the contributions need to meet some minimum threshold of performance.
To be fair, not many men can fill a 7.0 bWAR hole.Sox add 7 bWAR, Yankees lose 7 bWAR. That's nice for Boston, not so nice for NY. Now the Yankees would be able to fill that hole with probably a pretty good player, but it won't be able to fill a 7.0 bWAR hole.
To be clear here, I really don't care about the MVP or any awards, and I love Ohtani (I started the first thread for him here many years ago), but you could seriously make a legitimate argument that Ohtani was the least valuable player in baseball this year, in that he added many wins to a team with no chance of contending, so his fantastic performance just ended up hurting their draft picks.As I noted upthread, one of the instructions to voters is to consider "Actual value of a player to his team." Judge is absolutely essential to the Yankees' offense. Ohtani is absolutely essential to the Angels, period.
Ohtani is my MVP.
I would counter-argue by saying that Ohtani's teammates who stunk were in fact the least valuable players in baseball.To be clear here, I really don't care about the MVP or any awards, and I love Ohtani (I started the first thread for him here many years ago), but you could seriously make a legitimate argument that Ohtani was the least valuable player in baseball this year, in that he added many wins to a team with no chance of contending, so his fantastic performance just ended up hurting their draft picks.
You actually couldn't seriously make a legitimate case about that.To be clear here, I really don't care about the MVP or any awards, and I love Ohtani (I started the first thread for him here many years ago), but you could seriously make a legitimate argument that Ohtani was the least valuable player in baseball this year, in that he added many wins to a team with no chance of contending, so his fantastic performance just ended up hurting their draft picks.
It's the same thing as when A-Rod won a MVP for a TEX team that was out of contention all year, it's cool if no one on a contending team has a MVP-caliber season but clearly that's not the case this season. What Ohtani did this season and so far in his career is truly remarkable, but the last half of his season was played with zero pressure, it's just not comparable in my book. If an NBA player scored 40 ppg on a 20-62 team, they would not be seriously considered for the MVP, nor should they be.You actually couldn't seriously make a legitimate case about that.
I totally understand that argument and think that is a very valid point.It's the same thing as when A-Rod won a MVP for a TEX team that was out of contention all year, it's cool if no one on a contending team has a MVP-caliber season but clearly that's not the case this season. What Ohtani did this season and so far in his career is truly remarkable, but the last half of his season was played with zero pressure, it's just not comparable in my book. If an NBA player scored 40 ppg on a 20-62 team, they would not be seriously considered for the MVP, nor should they be.