Judge vs. Ohtani
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
The way that I frame it is, if the two of them were flipped team-wise, what would be the public view of them?
And in that framing, I feel like if Judge put up this season on the Angels it would be noted, but not a huge deal, whereas if Ohtani was doing his 2022 season on the NYY, the baseball world would be stopping every time he played
Hypotheticals are complicated. Ohtani has gotten absolutely shelled in his two starts so far in Yankee Stadium, 3.2 innings and 11 ERs combined, tied for his worst game score in both 2021 and 2022.
If we assume everything else is the same and that Ohtani won the MVP with the Yankees the previous year, then no, I don't think the baseball world would be stopping every time he played this season, even with the Yankees. And I do think that chasing the AL record for HRs and a triple crown would be a huge deal with the Angels or any other team.
I think the fresher story will always get a lot more hype in the media.
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Absolutely spot on true.
I hate to think that the public at large might be getting bored of Ohtani already. His team being awful doesn't help, but then again he HAS gotten plenty of attention for his accomplishments despite the fact that the Angels are terrible.
Yeah, I don't really by the narrative that Ohtani is somehow doing all of this anonymously. Playing for the Angels on the West Coast hurts his profile to an extent, but people still talk about him all the time, marvel at what he is doing, share his feats all over social media and MLB pushes anytime he does anything really hard on social media. He doesn't have the same cultural cache as LeBron, or Patrick Mahomes, but that isn't going to happen for any baseball player, really.
My friend is a pathological contrarian who HATES Ohtani because he is annoyed how much coverage he gets.
Anecdotally, I went to see Ohtani start against the Twins last Friday, in Minneapolis, on a shitty weather day, and there was a sizable contingent of Japanese and Japanese-American fans there purely to see Ohtani, waving the Japanese flag around etc... as well as a lot of other people wearing Ohtani gear that were...from out of town? It reminded me a little bit of Pedro starting at Fenway circa 1999 (on a much smaller scale because this was on the road between two dead-end teams) when the Dominican flags would be everywhere and it sort of transcended baseball. It was pretty cool.
Did they stop giving Gold Gloves to pitchers? He plays the field once a week or so, and is pretty good at it:
https://www.mlb.com/video/austin-meadows-lines-out-to-pitcher-shohei-ohtani
Also I don't know what the preferred defensive metrics are these days but B-Ref has Judge's dWAR as a total wash, and Fangraphs gives him a negative UZR/150. For his time in the field this season, Judge has all of 3 DRS -- he had 10 last year, and 21 in 2019 for reference. Ohtani's pitching is, non-scientific estimate, about a million times more valuable than Judge's defense. But I'll address that more below.
FTFY
All that said, I don't know what the right answer is. I hope it's Ohtani for obvious anti-Yankees/pro-Japanese player bias reasons, but here are the stated criteria:
Going backwards:
- 5 & 4 we can ignore.
- 3 is hands down Ohtani vs maybe 98% of the rest of league, but Judge is a nice guy! He gave #61 to his mom! He says all the right things. This one might still be Ohtani but I'll call it a wash.
- 2, after today Ohtani will have as many games as a hitter as Judge, at 151. How do we quantify the fact that Ohtani will also (after today) have 27 games pitched? Overall WAR kind of captures this, and as someone pointed out WAR says that Judge's offense is so good that it overcomes Ohtani's contributions on the mound. But is WAR all we should look at? That brings me to:
- 1. Actual value of a player to his team. Ohtani leads the Angels in every pitching category, and is 1st or 2nd in almost every offensive category. Judge leads the entire league in most offensive categories -- the "strength" of his offense is, compared to the rest of the AL in 2022, absurd and otherworldly. But I don't know what to do with stats like "Ohtani is the first player in MLB history to have 600 PAs as a hitter and to face 600 batters as a pitcher" or "Ohtani is the first player since Jim Devlin in 1876 to lead his team in both IP and and PA." The "value of Ohtani to his team" just doesn't seem quantifiable or fully capturable by WAR.
Since I don't know how all of that shakes out, I'll go back to the opening statement in the criteria: "There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team."
So like I was saying, Ohtani is the clear choice for MVP.
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Ohtani vs. OAK last night: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0ER, 10 K, 1 BB. Had a no-hitter into the 8th. 15-8 on the season.
He also went 2 for 4 at the plate, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.
We have never seen anything like this.
He also went 2 for 4 at the plate, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.
We have never seen anything like this.
Anecdotally, this reminds be a little bit of the year that Cabrera won the Triple Crown but didn't win MVP because Trout had more WAR since he was a vastly better baserunner and defender and still had amazing offensive numbers.
Who would you (Red Sox fans on SOSH) rather give a 5-year, $200m contract to this offseason: Judge or Ohtani?
I am specific with a 5-year deal because Judge should still be really really good at that point - it's as he gets into his late 30s that it's an issue.
I don't think there's an easy answer.
Judge is literally a perfect fit to fill the biggest hole on the team - power hitting right fielder who also plays respectable defense. The Sox need power. Judge is the premier power hitter in all of baseball. The Sox need a right fielder. Judge is a right fielder. Taking Judge from the Yankees also has the bonus of hurting their biggest rivals in a major way.
Ohtani fills two needs: power hitting DH (because like LAA, the Sox probably wouldn't play Ohtani in the field in order to preserve him) AND top of the rotation starter. As a power hitter, he isn't as good as Judge, THOUGH it must be pointed out that in 2021, here were their batting numbers:
Judge: 550 ab, 39 hr, 98 rbi, .287/.373/.44/.916, 149 ops+
Ohtani: 537 ab, 46 hr, 100 rbi, .273/.357/.530/.887, 148 ops+
So yeah a lot closer than this year. So in 2023, who knows if Judge comes back to earth and Ohtani picks it up a little, then the delta is much smaller. Anyway, let's say that Judge is still a much better power hitter.
The problem with Ohtani is that while yes, he fills two huge spots on the roster, IF he gets hurt, now you need to REPLACE two spots. Now you'd need a starting pitcher AND a power hitter. So there's pluses and minuses to a guy like this.
Interesting question.
I am specific with a 5-year deal because Judge should still be really really good at that point - it's as he gets into his late 30s that it's an issue.
I don't think there's an easy answer.
Judge is literally a perfect fit to fill the biggest hole on the team - power hitting right fielder who also plays respectable defense. The Sox need power. Judge is the premier power hitter in all of baseball. The Sox need a right fielder. Judge is a right fielder. Taking Judge from the Yankees also has the bonus of hurting their biggest rivals in a major way.
Ohtani fills two needs: power hitting DH (because like LAA, the Sox probably wouldn't play Ohtani in the field in order to preserve him) AND top of the rotation starter. As a power hitter, he isn't as good as Judge, THOUGH it must be pointed out that in 2021, here were their batting numbers:
Judge: 550 ab, 39 hr, 98 rbi, .287/.373/.44/.916, 149 ops+
Ohtani: 537 ab, 46 hr, 100 rbi, .273/.357/.530/.887, 148 ops+
So yeah a lot closer than this year. So in 2023, who knows if Judge comes back to earth and Ohtani picks it up a little, then the delta is much smaller. Anyway, let's say that Judge is still a much better power hitter.
The problem with Ohtani is that while yes, he fills two huge spots on the roster, IF he gets hurt, now you need to REPLACE two spots. Now you'd need a starting pitcher AND a power hitter. So there's pluses and minuses to a guy like this.
Interesting question.
There was a decent debate but Cabrera won the MVP in his Triple Crown season.
Definitely Ohtani for me. He is anchoring a lineup and rotation at the same time. Judge is having a ridiculous record-setting season so I don’t mind him winning MVP this year but I don’t see how he is more valuable than a guy who is a literal ace and all-star caliber middle-of-the-order hitter. That’s just unheard of.
People were saying this about Christian Yelich in 2018 and 2019, and Harper in 2021.
Judge is having an amazing season at age 30, but there's no reason to assume he's going to repeat it.
If this is about the 2022 MVP, it has to be Judge. The MFY fans can speak to this better than I can, but what is also in Judge's favor is he seemed to have had a number of game-turning hits for a team that is going to win its division.
This reminds of the 1941 AL MVP race in which Joe DiMaggio, in his 56 game hitting streak season, prevailed of Ted Williams, who hit .406 that year and led the league in home runs. (He also led in WAR, 10.4 to Joe D's 9.4). I thought that was an unjust result until, with the benefit of the NYT Times archive, I went and read through the daily stories of each of the 56 games during the streak, and what jumped out was how often a DiMaggio hit proved to be the difference between a Yankee win and a loss.
If we're talking about who'd I'd open the vault for, it would be Ohtani, because the guy is a marvel, and is much more likely to pay for himself since his every start is an event.
This reminds of the 1941 AL MVP race in which Joe DiMaggio, in his 56 game hitting streak season, prevailed of Ted Williams, who hit .406 that year and led the league in home runs. (He also led in WAR, 10.4 to Joe D's 9.4). I thought that was an unjust result until, with the benefit of the NYT Times archive, I went and read through the daily stories of each of the 56 games during the streak, and what jumped out was how often a DiMaggio hit proved to be the difference between a Yankee win and a loss.
If we're talking about who'd I'd open the vault for, it would be Ohtani, because the guy is a marvel, and is much more likely to pay for himself since his every start is an event.
I don't think it's at all realistic to think he will repeat it this 2022 season. It's an outlier. BUT...over his career, he's averaged a homer every 12.0 at-bats (11.96). If he plays a full season and gets 550 at-bats, that's 46 homers. That's still basically the best power hitter in the game. Right now there are just 2 guys in baseball who have hit 40+ homers this year: Judge (61) and Alonso (40).
As far as who I'd rather pay, while I know Ohtani is immensely valuable, I'd still take Judge for the Yankees. The certainty of knowing that he can produce at a high level in New York has some value to me. I doubt that Ohtani would be one of those guys who gets into town and never quite lives up to his previous standard, but the bigger the contract, the more I worry about it.
It's happened to NY a few times, especially with pitchers.
It's happened to NY a few times, especially with pitchers.
Aren't you kind of answering your own question here? Ohtani fills two huge roster spots. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one huge roster spot?
It's not that simple. A guy that fills two leaves two holes should he get injured. Moreover, signing Judge not only helps the Sox, it hurts their primary division rival in a major way.
I get the injury concern but he still fills two holes. How is that not more valuable than a guy who fills one? Your roster spots are limited and you get to carry a #1 pitcher who is also a top end middle of the order bat freeing up an extra roster spot. I get if he gets injured, you have to fill two jobs but since he's doing two jobs, you already have an extra person on the roster.
Yes you have the extra person, but he's a bench caliber guy, not a starting caliber guy. You can't afford to pay Ohtani AND pay a starting caliber guy to be on the bench. So now you have to elevate TWO bench caliber guys to fill the SP and DH spots formerly occupied at an All-Star level.
I'm not saying you're wrong - Ohtani might be the 100% right call here. I'm just pushing back a little for the sake of discussion.
You know, one thing you could do with the extra spot is to carry 2 players with heavy platoon splits. That way you'd get something of real boost in that aggregate position. Possibly much cheaper than signing/extending a single player as an all-rounder. 1B seems the obvious place for something like that.
Let's say he only is a 7 WAR player next year with 45 homers instead of 60+. His best 5 seasons he's put up:
155 g, 8.0 bWAR
112 g, 5.9 bWAR
102 g, 5.6 bWAR
148 g, 6.0 bWAR
151 g, 10.4 bWAR
TOT: 668 g, 35.9 bWAR
Average of 0.54 bWAR per game. So if he plays 140 games next year, it's reasonable for him to be projected at 7.5 bWAR. So 7 is reasonable.
Sox add 7 bWAR, Yankees lose 7 bWAR. That's nice for Boston, not so nice for NY. Now the Yankees would be able to fill that hole with probably a pretty good player, but it won't be able to fill a 7.0 bWAR hole.
Yep possible. I do wonder what they'll do with Casas - let him sink or swim against LHPs, or go with a platoon. This is where it would be REALLY frigging nice if Bobby Dalbec would truly become a legit lefty masher in the majors. Because that would be PERFECT.
Ha! I wish. I'd love a major league job!So, you worked for the Marlins in 2015 - or the Yanks in 2017?
Depends on the injury though. He can still hit if he gets a blister or sore arm. If it’s a more serious injury like a knee sprain or something, then absolutely.
In his time with the Marlins, Stanton averaged 5.06 bWAR over 140 games. Judge has averaged 7.13 bWAR over 140 games. I'm using 140 to account for some injuries, or else I'd go with 162.
Judge is a FAR superior overall player to Stanton. The Stanton contract was absurd given that all he is is a HR masher. Judge hits for power and average, and is a good fielder as well.
I have to admit I'm not sure I noticed these the first time around, and thought this was meant to be an MVP discussion. It doesn't look like I'm the only one as most of the conversation was centered around who deserved the MVP, and with apologies to the OP, that's what I want to ask about now. I'm curious if anyone's opinions have changed about MVP since the original discussion took place. Since the thread was started:
- Judge hit his 62nd HR, a new AL record.
- Judge went 4/18, dropping his average by a few points to miss out on the Triple Crown.
- Ohtani took a no-hitter into the 8th and threw 13 IP of 0.69 ERA/0.385 ball. Granted both starts were vs the A's, but it dropped his ERA from 2.47 to 2.33 on the season.
- Ohtani became the first player in the history of the sport to qualify as both a pitcher and hitter (based on the current qualification rules).
To answer one of the questions in the OP, who is the better baseball player, it's pretty obviously Ohtani. A team full of Ohtanis beats a team full of Judges probably 9 times out of 10. The defense is a wash, Judge has a roughly 30% advantage at the plate, Ohtani has a roughly infinite advantage on the mound.
To address the MVP question, Judge led his team in almost every offensive category with #'s that were also good enough to lead the AL in all but AVG. Trout didn't qualify, but including him anyway since he just missed, Ohtani was 1st or 2nd on the team in almost every offensive category, and was 1st in every pitching category: 2nd in OPS & HR, T-1st in XBH, 1st in G, PA, H, BB, R, and RBI. Then *also* 1st in GS, IP, W, ERA, WHIP, K, FIP, etc.
As I noted upthread, one of the instructions to voters is to consider "Actual value of a player to his team." Judge is absolutely essential to the Yankees' offense. Ohtani is absolutely essential to the Angels, period.
Ohtani is my MVP.
So you're only comparing a player with his teammates to determine who should be MVP? That would mean the MVP is the best player on the worst team every year.
No, not only. That is kind of inescapably part of it though? It's also an argument for Judge against the rest of the non-Ohtani field -- save for maybe Rizzo he had pitifully little consistent help from the rest of the Yankees bats.
Even if the answer to the first question was yes, no it wouldn't. The Reds had one qualified hitter this year, and he had an OPS+ of 90. Do you think I'm advocating for his MVP consideration?
I would have thought it goes without saying that the contributions need to meet some minimum threshold of performance.
Right, I should have said best good player on a bad team. I don't think you'd be arguing for Judge to be the MVP if he were on the Tigers, even though he'd be far and away the most valuable player on his team.
To be clear here, I really don't care about the MVP or any awards, and I love Ohtani (I started the first thread for him here many years ago), but you could seriously make a legitimate argument that Ohtani was the least valuable player in baseball this year, in that he added many wins to a team with no chance of contending, so his fantastic performance just ended up hurting their draft picks.
I would counter-argue by saying that Ohtani's teammates who stunk were in fact the least valuable players in baseball.
It's the same thing as when A-Rod won a MVP for a TEX team that was out of contention all year, it's cool if no one on a contending team has a MVP-caliber season but clearly that's not the case this season. What Ohtani did this season and so far in his career is truly remarkable, but the last half of his season was played with zero pressure, it's just not comparable in my book. If an NBA player scored 40 ppg on a 20-62 team, they would not be seriously considered for the MVP, nor should they be.
I find it hard to believe that a player who is both a top 10 hitter and a top 5 pitcher isn't the best player that season, but I also won't put up an argument against a player winning the MVP award when he does something truly historic, such as setting a league home run record and coming within 4 hits of a triple crown. I didn't have a problem with Miguel Cabrera winning the MVP over Trout when he became the first triple crown winner in 45 years. However, if two players do something historic – such as a 56-game hitting streak vs. batting .400 – then it should definitely be awarded to the one who actually had the better season as a whole (not DiMaggio).
I totally understand that argument and think that is a very valid point.
The argument that Ohtani is actually the LEAST valuable player, because he was so good he hurt the Angles draft position, is insane and would betray pretty much every accepted truth of the game.