Joe Kelly has had a few good starts in a row.

iayork · Aug 20, 2015

nvalvo said:
I guess my question is how long does Kelly have to pitch how well before he makes himself into someone the FO (or someone else's FO) should consider for the 2016 rotation picture?

I haven't looked closely at his PITCHf/x on the last three games; they haven't looked different enough from his previous run that I feel very confident he's turned a corner. If his next start is also decent, I'll take a closer look.

My impressions over the past three games:

He seems to have abandoned the idea of slowing down his fastballs. That was a good idea (from Carl Willis) that seemed worth a try, but he wasn't getting any better results that way, and his fastballs are much less likely to be hit when they're 97 than when they're 94 mph, so he's cranked it back up. The flip side of throwing his fastballs that hard seems to be that he loses some location, leading to more walks. (Let’s Talk About Joe Kelly Fastballs) He's avoided walks in the past three games, so maybe he's worked something out, but he still doesn't seem to have exactly pinpoint accuracy; he's throwing a lot of pitches, and going to a lot of hitters' counts. I worry that he may have had more luck with the walks than skill.

I don't think there's a major change in his pitch usage. There's game to game fluctuations, but that's normal. His change, on average, is coming in a little harder, but he throws so hard to start with that he can have a change in the high 80s and still have huge separation in speed between that and his fastball.

One thing that is interesting, though, is that I think he's now got more variation in the speed of his change. The reason that might be significant is that it's what Pedro suggested he work on -- trying to vary his changeup more so that it was effectively several different pitches. I'm not completely sure that that's a real thing, and I'm not sure it's enough to account for better results, but it may be something.

All this is just eyeballing, so take it with a grain of salt. Joe Kelly fanboy though I am, my default assumption is that he's just been lucky in the last three games. But as I say, if he can hold up with another decent start next time, I'l take a much closer look and see if anything else comes up.

kieckeredinthehead · Aug 20, 2015

Has Joe Kelly changed much since the end of last season, when after a disastrous start against Houston he threw 44 innings with a 595 OPS against, 6.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 3.65 ERA?

AB in DC · Aug 20, 2015

nvalvo said:
I guess my question is how long does Kelly have to pitch how well before he makes himself into someone the FO (or someone else's FO) should consider for the 2016 rotation picture? I think he has one option year left, but I might be wrong about that. Please correct me if you know otherwise. Needless to say, I'm much more interested in Joe Kelly as a sixth starter than as one of the top five.

I don't see why he wouldn't have been in the picture in the first place. He's always been a guy who would compete for the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation. It's not like teams set their rotation in stone months before the season starters; as always, it'll depend on how he looks during spring training.

joe dokes · Aug 21, 2015

I don't think there's a major change in his pitch usage. There's game to game fluctuations, but that's normal. His change, on average, is coming in a little harder, but he throws so hard to start with that he can have a change in the high 80s and still have huge separation in speed between that and his fastball.

Overall, there may not be much of a change in *total* usage. (I assume that's what you meant). But there were a handful of times where he threw pitches on unexpected counts -- like not-fastballs when behind on the count. I don't recall him doing much of that -- or if he did, he gave up if it didn't yield results early -- earlier in the season. That's what separates the wheat from the chaff among MLB starters -- throwing off-speed for strikes when down in the count. Maybe he'll never be able to do it consistently enough to be more than he is now, but he'll never become more that if he doesn't give it a shot.

phenweigh · Aug 21, 2015

Dombrowski has stated he likes power pitchers ... that may bode well for Joe. Not so well for Steven Wright.

Rovin Romine · Aug 21, 2015

phenweigh said:
Dombrowski has stated he likes power pitchers ... that may bode well for Joe. Not so well for Steven Wright.

Well, I think everyone's a card in Dombrowski's hands at this point. But what's Wright's worst case scenario - to be optioned to Pawtucked for next year, stashed as the 6th starter? I'm not sure that'll be his fate. Wright has shown enough this year to merit consideration as a starter for next year - or perhaps to be traded as a starter if he's not starting for us. It's a shame about his recent concussion; he's been bobbled about quite a bit between Pawtucket, the RS rotation, and the bullpen. He'd likely benefit from a string of starts to see how he'd adjust.

EricFeczko · Aug 21, 2015

nvalvo said:
This is really interesting, guys. I feel like it will give me some things to watch for on his next turn: variable changeup speed and use of off-speed/breaking pitches behind in the count.

Any other thoughts?

You should probably look for greater variation in general. SImply having two speeds or two forms of movement allows the player to make a 25% guess to what the pitch might be. Slight changes in velocity may also be accompanied with differences in vertical movement (if a pitch is slower than average (for its type) as it approaches the plate, gravity has an ever-so-slightly longer time to take effect).

I don't think we (I) know much about pitch sequencing, but you might want to see if he's changed his approach there. Of course, that's much more tedious to quantify, but if you've seen all his starts you can probably make an educated guess as to whether that's different.

Darnell's Son · Aug 24, 2015

joe dokes said:
Overall, there may not be much of a change in *total* usage. (I assume that's what you meant). But there were a handful of times where he threw pitches on unexpected counts -- like not-fastballs when behind on the count. I don't recall him doing much of that -- or if he did, he gave up if it didn't yield results early -- earlier in the season. That's what separates the wheat from the chaff among MLB starters -- throwing off-speed for strikes when down in the count. Maybe he'll never be able to do it consistently enough to be more than he is now, but he'll never become more that if he doesn't give it a shot.

joe dokes asked and Ian York answered: Red Sox Pitcher Joe Kelly: Pitch Usage

However, if we look at his last three games, there is an interesting difference; not in all counts, but in the pitchers’ counts, 0-1 and 0-2. In these situations, in the last three games, Kelly has started throwing a much higher proportion of breaking pitches and changeups

Cumberland Blues · Aug 25, 2015

Hannigan was looking in the dugout all night - I think the pitches were called from the bench.

Rasputin · Aug 25, 2015

Cumberland Blues said:
Hannigan was looking in the dugout all night - I think the pitches were called from the bench.

I don't care if they were called from Mars, what we've been seeing from him lately is phenomenal.

If he keeps it up for the rest of the year, which is a pretty fucking big if, it's going to make the off season very interesting.

iayork · Aug 25, 2015

nvalvo said:
Well, I wasn't able to see this one, because I live in Chicago now. But Kelly went pretty deep into the game, and his line is a thing of beauty yet again:

7.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 4K, 1BB, 1HR. 14 groundball outs!

The radio guys were talking about Kelly throwing more breaking and offspeed pitches for strikes than fastballs. What did other people see?

I'd love to think Kelly has figured it all out, and his last few games have certainly been really encouraging, but I think we're still seeing a fair bit of luck in his outcomes. Last night aside, the previous few games had good outcomes, but he was still giving up a fair number of walks and hits (WHIP of 1.3, opponents' OPS of .746 in those three games), just not clustering them the way he has in the past.

In last night's game, his fastball strike percent was pretty low, in the 50s. He threw a fair number of breaking and offspeed pitches and got lots of strikes off them (80% strikes!), but I worry that that is actually too high; that can mean he's leaving his pitches up in the zone. Both these hint at some luck last night too.

That said: (1) Every pitcher can use a little luck now and then. (2) It did look as if many of his breaking pitches were very nicely placed -- I saw a number of sliders to righties that were about as perfect as you can get, right at the bottom inside corner; (3) even though a lot of his fastballs were not strikes, a lot were placed close enough to the zone to make the batter think, which set up his secondary pitches well. (4) He can probably get away with having a few pitches miss, because his velocity and movement is so great.

One thing I was looking for, and think I saw, was a lot more variation in pitch speed (both fastballs and change) than he was doing earlier. Pedro apparently specifically told him he needs to start doing that just before his (Kelly's) recent string of success.

Anyway, it's certainly exciting. If he can perform like this more or less consistently, he can be a serious contributor.

joe dokes · Aug 25, 2015

In last night's game, his fastball strike percent was pretty low, in the 50s. He threw a fair number of breaking and offspeed pitches and got lots of strikes off them (80% strikes!), but I worry that that is actually too high; that can mean he's leaving his pitches up in the zone. Both these hint at some luck last night too.

Things I wish I could ask a coach/catcher musing......do they know early enough that he doesn't have great command of the fastball and bump up non-fastballs to over 50%? Was that ratio the plan from the start and did throwing fewer of them affect fastball command?

I know this runs counter to a lot of BABiP orthodoxy, but in relation to mixing up the pitches, I wonder if its always *that* important to throw a great breaking pitch. Putting aside your basic hanging meatball, I wonder if simply throwing one on a "fastball count/hitters' count" messes up the hitter's timing enough to induce weak contact. (In addition to giving a hitter something to think about next time. *That's* how a pitcher can get through a lineup 4 times). I think it was Warren Spahn who reportedly said, "hitting is about timing; pitching is about messing up timing.")

I find the whole Kelly thing fascinating. Pitcher with a consistently high 90s fastball and probably-good-enough not-fastballs seemingly "learning how to pitch" (or less pejoratively, changing his entire approach to pitching) right in front of us.

Fireball Fred · Aug 25, 2015

I hope the pitches were called from the bench - a pitcher who's only good with Hanigan catching is likely to have a short career. Seems to me Kelly's especially helped by mixing his pitches because it allows him to get through the order more times - batters aren't seeing same pitches over and over. This addresses one of his major weaknesses.

tims4wins · Aug 29, 2015

6 wins in August. First Sox pitcher to win 6 in a month since Pedro in 99. Um what?

brandonchristensen · Aug 29, 2015

Kelly is our new ace confirmed.

Green Monster · Aug 29, 2015

tims4wins said:
6 wins in August. First Sox pitcher to win 6 in a month since Pedro in 99. Um what?

He has never lost with his moustache!

Scott Cooper · Aug 29, 2015

Is there a cy young award for the month of August?

chrisfont9 · Aug 29, 2015

Scott Cooper said:
Is there a cy young award for the month of August?

Sort of. Pitcher of the Month.

chrisfont9 · Aug 29, 2015

Kelly in August:

6-0, 37 IP, 11 BB, 28 K, 2.68 ERA

David Price

4-0, 36.1 IP, 7 BB, 41 K, 1.98 ERA

And Price has another start on the 31st.

HriniakPosterChild · Aug 30, 2015

chrisfont9 said:
Sort of. Pitcher of the Month.

Cy Infant?

FanSinceBoggs · Aug 30, 2015

chrisfont9 said:
Kelly in August:

6-0, 37 IP, 11 BB, 28 K, 2.68 ERA

David Price

4-0, 36.1 IP, 7 BB, 41 K, 1.98 ERA

And Price has another start on the 31st.

Price's August ratios are considerably better:
Kelly BB/9 K/9: 2.67 6.81
Price BB/9 K/9: 1.74 10.22

In the best scenario, Kelly is what, a middling starter? Does he really have more upside than that? He is already 27 years old. I think he has pitched well enough, however, to battle for the 5th spot in the rotation next spring. I suppose Kelly has restored a little trade value too if Dombrowski decides to include him in a trade package.

MikeM · Aug 30, 2015

FanSinceBoggs said:
In the best scenario, Kelly is what, a middling starter? Does he really have more upside than that? He is already 27 years old. I think he has pitched well enough, however, to battle for the 5th spot in the rotation next spring. I suppose Kelly has restored a little trade value too if Dombrowski decides to include him in a trade package.

If Kelly ends the year on a high note, and given he's not making any real money yet, he's probably positioning himself into being a fairly interesting piece of trade bait (assuming we have every intention of bringing in some outside starting pitching help to solidify the top of our 2016 rotation).

Somebody likely has to be traded in process of building a solid bullpen this winter.

Drek717 · Aug 30, 2015

FanSinceBoggs said:
Price's August ratios are considerably better:
Kelly BB/9 K/9: 2.67 6.81
Price BB/9 K/9: 1.74 10.22

In the best scenario, Kelly is what, a middling starter? Does he really have more upside than that? He is already 27 years old. I think he has pitched well enough, however, to battle for the 5th spot in the rotation next spring. I suppose Kelly has restored a little trade value too if Dombrowski decides to include him in a trade package.

If I recall correctly Kelly didn't start pitching until college and then it was as a reliever. It wasn't until the Cardinals drafted him (in the 3rd round) that he became a starter. The conventional wisdom on him is that the sustainable velocity on his fastball and broad arsenal of pitches all but ensures him of being a mid-rotation or better starter once he finally figures out how to use it all correctly.

I have personally always argued that his control is too intermittent as well (live in St. Louis so I end up talking a lot of Cards baseball). I think the biggest takeaway from these last few games is that he's shown improvement on both fronts. For a big chunk of his career he's always relied on fastballs when he gets behind in the count. As a result hitters tend to lay back early, get ahead, then hunt the fastball with great success. This month he has been far more willing to go to his off-speed stuff, most notably his change up and slider.

As a small little bit of cherry picked data, his change has a .229 BA against, by far his best, but he's thrown it only about half as often as the curveball (181 to 305 on the year) and his two seem fastball dominates (1114).

Looking at his game logs, up until August he pretty consistently threw his fastball in the low to mid 70's, his curve in the 7-12% range, and the percentage of sliders and change ups were inversely proportional to each other. The only starts where he got his change percentage into the teens that weren't quality starts was against New York on 5/3 and Baltimore on 6/23. In August his fastball percentage is generally down into the 60's (Mid 40's against both Chicago and Detroit!), his curve percentage is down to the 2.5-8% range, but his change is consistently in the mid to high teens while his slider has been at least in the mid teens, topping out at 31.3% against Detroit (23.3% against Chicago).

So maybe we're seeing two different corrections at once here. People were sitting on his fastball and so per Pedro's advice he's working in more change ups and different velocities. Meanwhile he's reducing the reliance on the curve and letting his slider be the breaking ball he relies on. Maybe this is him finally discovering his best pitch mix to be effective. Or maybe it's just a different look hitters haven't seen and they'll correct once they stop sitting on the change with it's downward motion convincing them it's the curve. Either way, it's positive growth.

BeantownIdaho · Aug 30, 2015

The pitching staff in general has been pretty good in August - Owens, Kelly, Miley are making either a good case for starting next year 0r a good case to trade them. If the sox get a #1 as Dom says then...

#1 - Price/Cueto???
#2 - Buch - As Dom recently said if he is healthy his option will be picked up
#3 - Porcello - Can he pitch well enough down the stretch to possibly move him?
#4 - ERod
#5 - Owens/Kelly/Miley...Unless Buch isn't healthy and/or Porcello is moved then this is a three way battle for #5 - I wouldn't mind seeing one of these guys transition to long relief or 7/8 inning duty as we have been horrible there.

NoXInNixon · Aug 30, 2015

If Porcello pitches well down the stretch, it will make the Red Sox more likely to want to keep him.

At this point, I'd rather see the Sox get an ace through a trade than a free agent signing, which would mean someone from your #5 slot would be traded.

jscola85 · Aug 30, 2015

The best case scenario is two of these guys like Kelly and Owens get on a roll to end the season, boost their trade value, and can be swapped in a deal. The reality is all of them are about the same - high 3's/low 4's FIP/ERA pitchers, which makes them all more 3s/4s than 1s/2s. They played below their talent level for 3+ months and are now enjoying some mean reversion. Hopefully that continues through September and thus their season numbers wind up close to true talent. If that's the case, you may be able to deal them for help elsewhere - either a power bullpen arm, or maybe consolidate them with some of our prospects to pick up a guy with a higher true talent level. None of them would be centerpieces but other than Porcello, all our starters are on very reasonable contracts with multiple years of team control.

NDame616 · Aug 30, 2015

NoXInNixon said:
If Porcello pitches well down the stretch, it will make the Red Sox more likely to want to keep him.

At this point, I'd rather see the Sox get an ace through a trade than a free agent signing, which would mean someone from your #5 slot would be traded.

No matter how Rick Porcello pitches down the stretch, he's on our roster next year (unless we DFA him, which we won't)

No one will trade for him, and if they do it would be at the lowest depths of selling low.

Not sure where he will pencil into the rotation, but barring a major injury Rick Porcello will be a SP for the Red Sox next spring.

Savin Hillbilly · Aug 30, 2015

BeantownIdaho said:
The pitching staff in general has been pretty good in August - Owens, Kelly, Miley are making either a good case for starting next year 0r a good case to trade them. If the sox get a #1 as Dom says then...

#1 - Price/Cueto???
#2 - Buch - As Dom recently said if he is healthy his option will be picked up
#3 - Porcello - Can he pitch well enough down the stretch to possibly move him?
#4 - ERod
#5 - Owens/Kelly/Miley...Unless Buch isn't healthy and/or Porcello is moved then this is a three way battle for #5 - I wouldn't mind seeing one of these guys transition to long relief or 7/8 inning duty as we have been horrible there.

I'm not sure why we should assume that Rodriguez, alone among the optionable group, is guaranteed a rotation slot. He may have the highest upside of the bunch, but he's also shown worrisome inconsistency, and he's still very young.

MikeM · Aug 30, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm not sure why we should assume that Rodriguez, alone among the optionable group, is guaranteed a rotation slot. He may have the highest upside of the bunch, but he's also shown worrisome inconsistency, and he's still very young.

Personally i'd swap Miley with Edro there.

Listing Edro ahead of Miley may look better as an upside paper presentation, but Miley and his contract extension isn't going to be in that group of guys pitching for a spot next spring. If he's here and as long as he avoids looking terrible, that will more or less be a default nod.

HomeRunBaker · Aug 30, 2015

Miley is going to be throwing 200 innings somewhere next season as he does every year. With the questions surrounding the health of Buchholz along with the consistency issues with Kelly, Rodriguez, and the other young pitchers there is tremendous value in simply plugging Miley into the rotation for 2016 until there are more certainties with the up and comers. I'd guess that at some point he can be a nice trade piece as there are many teams looking for this type of reliability (as we are next year) once our youngs earn permanent spots in our rotation.

Also, Dombrowski traded for Price once and he's my target at the top of the rotation. Cueto's elbow issues scare the living bejesus out of me.

BeantownIdaho · Aug 30, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm not sure why we should assume that Rodriguez, alone among the optionable group, is guaranteed a rotation slot. He may have the highest upside of the bunch, but he's also shown worrisome inconsistency, and he's still very young.

I think you make a good point - he has been inconsistent. I'm not sure as one poster said a swap with Miley considering he went back to mediocre today - he does throw a lot of innings though. Porcello did throw a pretty decent game back.

Plympton91 · Aug 30, 2015

Miley. Is a number 5 starter and Porcello is a number 4, yet they have contracts that dictate they stay in those roles regardless of performance. If the can get anything of value for Miley beyond full contract reliefs they should do it. I'd love to get a good reliever for him and call it a day.

DJnVa · Aug 30, 2015

Plympton91 said:
Miley. Is a number 5 starter and Porcello is a number 4, yet they have contracts that dictate they stay in those roles regardless of performance. If the can get anything of value for Miley beyond full contract reliefs they should do it. I'd love to get a good reliever for him and call it a day.

Miley's FIP has been under 4.00 the last 4 years and is second on the team this year in FIP behind Buchholz. Is he a #5?

flymrfreakjar · Aug 30, 2015

Obviously we need to see how September plays out, but given that Kelly's emergence this past month has come from a very clear, tangible change in his approach, this is very exciting. I think he already needs to be garnering consideration as an important member of the rotation next season, not relegated to interchangeable 5th starter status.

HomeRunBaker · Aug 30, 2015

That is crazy talk that Miley is a #5. On a star-studded staff sure maybe but on 90%+ of major league staffs he's a solid 3/4 guy and paid accordingly. I don't know of a single #5 with FIP's under 4 and 200 IP each of the last 4 seasons.

Adrian's Dome · Aug 31, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Miley's FIP has been under 4.00 the last 4 years and is second on the team this year in FIP behind Buchholz. Is he a #5?

Perhaps you should be asking yourself why his actual performance hasn't matched that FIP in the last two years before quoting one singular stat in a definitive manner as if it tells the entire story.

His career WHIP is 1.34. ERA is essentially 4. W/L record is basically even. K/9 at 6.97 isn't anything to write home about. .733 OPS against. Nothing about his peripherals stands out. He's a back-end starter. If you want to sit there and argue the semantics between what you believe is a #3 vs a 4 or 5 then go right ahead, but that doesn't change what he actually is.

DJnVa · Aug 31, 2015

Adrian's Dome said:
Perhaps you should be asking yourself why his actual performance hasn't matched that FIP in the last two years before quoting one singular stat in a definitive manner as if it tells the entire story.

His career WHIP is 1.34. ERA is essentially 4. W/L record is basically even. K/9 at 6.97 isn't anything to write home about. .733 OPS against. Nothing about his peripherals stands out. He's a back-end starter. If you want to sit there and argue the semantics between what you believe is a #3 vs a 4 or 5 then go right ahead, but that doesn't change what he actually is.

I didn't argue the semantics. At all. I never said he should be called a #3 or a #4 and nowhere did I say to ignore everything else or say the other numbers don't matter. I simply pointed out that his FIP is actually pretty good and it has been. Maybe you don't like the 6.97 K/9 but FIP incorporates that.

His performance, over 200 innings is valuable to a team. I would love to call him a #5 and have 4 guys better.

jscola85 · Aug 31, 2015

Miley is what he is. He will give you 200 innings each year of low 4's ERA, 6 decent innings a night. He's basically what they wanted out of Ryan Dempster when he was signed. For the price he's paid and what we gave up (Webster / RDLR), it's hard to complain about him. Wade Miley is not the problem with this pitching staff. The problem was thinking guys like Kelly/Porcello would keep improving and break out into borderline frontline starters, and believing Justin Masterson was anything but a JUGS machine.

smastroyin · Aug 31, 2015

Even if all you care about is ERA, right now Miley is ranked 46 out of guys with qualified amount of innings.

Now, in MLB there are roughly 90-100 guys who pitch enough to qualify for ERA, another 50-70 (depending on year) of half-season type guys (callups, injuries, etc.) and then a bunch of guys who occasional starts, etc.

So, even if you limit to ERA itself, Miley is right in the middle, and he pitches more innings. If you were to state you "number" assignments based only on guys likely to pitch a full season, he would be a #2 on an average team and #3 on a good team.

There is almost no way to describe him as a "#5 starter" except to say "I wish the Red Sox had such good starting pitching that this guy would be at the back of the rotation."

shaggydog2000 · Aug 31, 2015

smastroyin said:
Even if all you care about is ERA, right now Miley is ranked 46 out of guys with qualified amount of innings.

Now, in MLB there are roughly 90-100 guys who pitch enough to qualify for ERA, another 50-70 (depending on year) of half-season type guys (callups, injuries, etc.) and then a bunch of guys who occasional starts, etc.

So, even if you limit to ERA itself, Miley is right in the middle, and he pitches more innings. If you were to state you "number" assignments based only on guys likely to pitch a full season, he would be a #2 on an average team and #3 on a good team.

There is almost no way to describe him as a "#5 starter" except to say "I wish the Red Sox had such good starting pitching that this guy would be at the back of the rotation."

Miley is 74th in ERA out of 88 according to Fangraphs. He was 46th by WAR. That makes him an average #3 or a #4 on a good starting rotation if you're looking at ERA, right? Now we know #4 and #5 starters get cycled through pretty often on most teams due to injury or ineffectiveness, so the fact that Miley is about 10% worse than the average AL starter overall would also support a slot for him in the back of the rotation, with some extra credit for him pitching more than most.

So to me, Miley as the 4th best starter on your team is fine. Expecting more than that seems to go against his track record. And I see little evidence in his numbers for him being on an upward trajectory. I think the upsides of Owens, Rodriguez, or maybe even Kelly if you're a fan of him could convince you to trade Miley in the right deal. Not talking fire sale, but if you got offered good value as part of a deal for something you need.

jscola85 · Aug 31, 2015

Rarely do teams have a true 5th starter, pitching 25+ starts for them. Injuries and poor performance typically result in that last spot having a bunch of turnover. For example, this year, Miley will wind up with 30+ starts, Porcello/Kelly/EdRo will have 20-25 apiece, and then after that it's Buchholz at 18 & a long tail from there (Masterson, Wright, Owens, Barnes, Johnson).

In that vein, simply because of his ability to take the ball basically every 5th day, Miley is probably more of a #4 than a #5. A #5 is a guy you probably can't count on for 200 innings; at least Miley gives you that.

In my lifetime · Aug 31, 2015

I would argue that Kelly is the exact type of pitcher the RS should keep with the pitching depth they have currently. Granted that pitching depth could change quickly due to injury especially Buchholz or a 2+ for 1 trade to get a #1 starter (and if Kelly is part of the 2 for 1,then that would be fine) .

Kelly is perfect to have as a #5, since his upside is that of a #1. His stuff is elite, his pitching experience is limited, he is under team control for a few years and his salary is very reasonable.

He would not be the first power pitcher to improve his command and pitch selection to make the jump. That being said, the RS can't afford to go into next season without a true established #1 pitcher. And I would be shocked if they don't deliver on that in the off-season.

jscola85 · Aug 31, 2015

In my lifetime said:
I would argue that Kelly is the exact type of pitcher the RS should keep with the pitching depth they have currently. Granted that pitching depth could change quickly due to injury especially Buchholz or a 2+ for 1 trade to get a #1 starter (and if Kelly is part of the 2 for 1,then that would be fine) .

Kelly is perfect to have as a #5, since his upside is that of a #1. His stuff is elite, his pitching experience is limited, he is under team control for a few years and his salary is very reasonable.

He would not be the first power pitcher to improve his command and pitch selection to make the jump. That being said, the RS can't afford to go into next season without a true established #1 pitcher. And I would be shocked if they don't deliver on that in the off-season.

The problem is that they have another guy like that in Eduardo Rodriguez. Throwing 95 from the left side with potentially nasty breaking stuff is just as exciting as Kelly, especially when you compare their age/MLB experience. There's perhaps room for both of them, but only if the other three spots are filled by absolute rock-solid starters.

Joe Kelly has had a few good starts in a row.

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