JD: In or Out?

JD will


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OCD SS

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The Sox off-season is going to start with whether a 34 year old JD Martinez exercises his contract’s opt out clause, or decides to stay with the Red Sox. The off-season omnibus thread has some certainty on both sides of the issue, so to the SoSH polls!

This decision is entirely up to JD, so 5 days after the World Series ends, and with the CBA likely not agreed to, do you think he goes or stays?
 

EricFeczko

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I said "opt-in", but I'm not really a hard yes/no -- especially when it comes to individual decisions where so many unknown factors may be involved.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He will opt out. If there’s a work stoppage, he won’t get paid anyways so it’s worth the risk and the upside that comes with universal DH. He’s still a top 25-30 hitter in baseball and should be able to get a 2-3 year deal at 15-16m AAV, IMO.
 

deythur

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Is there an opt-in and then get traded option? Would this be a bad look for the Sox at all?

It seems like if getting traded after he opted-in is a possibility it would make sense for him to opt-out to better control his next stop.
 

Harry Hooper

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According to Cot's contracts, J.D. has limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 3 clubs annually). Since it is not out of the question that Bloom might deal him for 2022, for that reason alone J.D. may opt out to have more control over where he plays next season. Add in that it seems unlikely the Sox would want to have him in uniform for 2023 and beyond.

The worst case scenario if he opts out is that the CBA talks drag on and end with a glut of free agents sitting there to be signed at cut rates for 1 year. In such circumstances he may end up a few million poorer in terms of 2022 salary, but offsetting that is the upside of possibly getting a multi-year deal done this offseason.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I selected opt-in, because that's what he's done with every other option he's had and I don't think the landscape has changed enough for him to make a different choice. He badly misjudged his free agency value three years ago, which is how he ended up on this deal with the Sox in the first place. I don't think he'll take that risk again until he has no choice. Also, I'm not sold on the idea that the NL a) will definitely adopt the DH and b) even if they do, that that will mean demand for JD's services will skyrocket.

If I'm wrong, good for JD.
 

vadertime

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I think a lot depends on the ankle. I remember a report saying it was worse than they were saying and would require off-season surgery. If that's the case I think he opts-in and takes the sure thing as there won't be a long line of teams going after him with that uncertainty.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Why does Cots say he only has opt outs after 2019 and 2020?
Cots' description is really poorly worded, but it does say that his 2021 and 2022 seasons become mutual options if certain criteria are met. Considering the criteria is all based on time missed for a specific injury (Lisfranc), the only party that benefits from turning those years into options is the Red Sox, which suggests that they're already options for JD. Despite that confusing description, JD is listed on Cots "2022 Free Agents" page with an asterisk denoting an option.
 

glennhoffmania

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Cots' description is really poorly worded, but it does say that his 2021 and 2022 seasons become mutual options if certain criteria are met. Considering the criteria is all based on time missed for a specific injury (Lisfranc), the only party that benefits from turning those years into options is the Red Sox, which suggests that they're already options for JD. Despite that confusing description, JD is listed on Cots "2022 Free Agents" page with an asterisk denoting an option.
Thanks. That makes sense and Cots' description could definitely use some work.
 

mr_smith02

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I said opt-in because I feel like he's 34, possibly injured, revered in the Sox clubhouse, and unlikely to see the money he will get by staying. That said, it is a business and I could certainly see the FO trying to trade him if he does opt-in.
 

rlcave3rd

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I said opt-in because I feel like he's 34, possibly injured, revered in the Sox clubhouse, and unlikely to see the money he will get by staying. That said, it is a business and I could certainly see the FO trying to trade him if he does opt-in.
If they do decide to trade him what is a 3.0 WAR, 126 OPS+ DH/OF on a $19 million contract worth? (Stats from Baseball Reference). Presumably it depends on how the CBA shakes out, but I don't have a good feel for this sort of thing. He is certainly still a good hitter, but seems to be on the decline relative to his best seasons (2017, 2018).
 

bsj

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I think he will opt in. But its close. I just dont see enough big $ DH landing spots. The Yankees are out because of the Stanton contract.
 

chawson

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Was going to post this in a different thread yesterday (I think answering @chawson ?) but Baseball Trade Values has JD as a -9.6 value, meaning he certainly has no positive trade value (according to them) if he opts in.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/
Saw that, yeah. I wonder how they factor the possible DH expansion, if at all. If that doesn’t happen, it’s surely dicier.

Statcast has him at the 87th percentile for expected wOBA in ‘21. In other words, he’s 32nd of 232 qualified MLB hitters, and very, very few of the the 31 guys ahead of him are available (Schwarber ranks 12th).

I don’t think he’d fetch a haul or anything, but my sense is that he’s movable. One year is just not that much of a commitment, and for a lot of teams the odds are decent you’d only be paying him through July. Everyone just watched the Twins get a pretty solid starting pitcher prospect for two months of Nelson Cruz, a similar asset.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The timing for when he has to make the decision is bad for JD. It's $20M in the bag on a good team v. the possible upside but also significant uncertainty with the CBA unresolved. I think he takes the less risky path for one more year. He could still get a 2-3 year deal after next season as a 35 yo if he's relatively healthy and productive and the universal DH is adopted (the Nelson Cruz late career path). It the NL doesn't get the DH and FA stalls, he could end up taking a lot less on a 1 year deal, and from a lesser team.
 

mauidano

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I voted Opt In. JD is not a young guy in baseball terms anymore. Definitely can still hit. He's made more money than his grandkids could spend with drug habits. I think at this point in his career and life it's about comfort level of work. He loves the team, the town and winning. Boston it is.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Saw that, yeah. I wonder how they factor the possible DH expansion, if at all. If that doesn’t happen, it’s surely dicier.

Statcast has him at the 87th percentile for expected wOBA in ‘21. In other words, he’s 32nd of 232 qualified MLB hitters, and very, very few of the the 31 guys ahead of him are available (Schwarber ranks 12th).

I don’t think he’d fetch a haul or anything, but my sense is that he’s movable. One year is just not that much of a commitment, and for a lot of teams the odds are decent you’d only be paying him through July. Everyone just watched the Twins get a pretty solid starting pitcher prospect for two months of Nelson Cruz, a similar asset.
Their valuation is based on current conditions, so it doesn't really take DH in the NL into account and I don't think it would change much once the DH is universal. Part of their calculation of a player's value is based on market conditions (e.g. if there's a glut of free agent SS on the market, then all shortstop's trade value takes a hit). Considering that anyone can DH, I don't know that the addition of 15 DH spots moves the needle much.

Not every team will seek out a player to (near-)exclusively DH like JD does. There will be teams that simply use the DH spot to rotate players between DH and a defensive position (some AL teams already do this). And with most NL teams carrying at least one extra position player (relative to AL rosters) for the purposes of pinch hitting/double switching frequently for the pitcher spot, that player will likely get rotated with the rest rather than replaced by a JD/Nelson Cruz type.
 

chawson

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Their valuation is based on current conditions, so it doesn't really take DH in the NL into account and I don't think it would change much once the DH is universal. Part of their calculation of a player's value is based on market conditions (e.g. if there's a glut of free agent SS on the market, then all shortstop's trade value takes a hit). Considering that anyone can DH, I don't know that the addition of 15 DH spots moves the needle much.

Not every team will seek out a player to (near-)exclusively DH like JD does. There will be teams that simply use the DH spot to rotate players between DH and a defensive position (some AL teams already do this). And with most NL teams carrying at least one extra position player (relative to AL rosters) for the purposes of pinch hitting/double switching frequently for the pitcher spot, that player will likely get rotated with the rest rather than replaced by a JD/Nelson Cruz type.
Sure, that’s fair, and I agree that many teams will shift a bad outfielder to the DH slot rather than sign a “pure DH” (of which there are few).

I also think that trade value site overemphasizes JDM’s wretched 2020 without accounting for the reasons for it.

We’ll know soon. And in two weeks, we’ll never have to discuss JDM’s opt-outs again. Looking forward to it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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When do we find out whether or not there is a universal DH next season? Does that have to be approved as part of the CBA?
Yes, it has to be included in the new CBA. The current CBA expires at the end of November. Doesn't seem like there's much chance of the negotiations not going down to the wire, if not past it. We might not know anything until 2022.
 

dynomite

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I think he will opt in. But its close. I just dont see enough big $ DH landing spots. The Yankees are out because of the Stanton contract.
Exactly. Who are the teams that can a) afford him and b) need a DH? What’s his market if looking for a 2-3 year, $40MM deal? That’s the question JD will be asking before just turning down $20M.

The Mariners? They could use an upgrade from Luis Torrens (whose 102 OPS+ is good for a Catcher and not great for a DH) and some “veteran leadership” on a young squad, but I think that comes down to money.

The White Sox? Eloy Jimenez’s natural position is DH, and after injuring himself badly in the field this spring I wonder whether they would want to clog that spot on their roster for 2-3 years.

Others?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The possibility though is that he thinks he could be traded (maybe the Sox eat $5M making him nicely priced for one year) so if he opts out he has some more leverage over where he’ll end up. It might not be for high AAV but he could get $60 more 4 more years.
If he has a poor ‘22 (which wouldn’t shock me- he was not good from May-August) he could be looking at a bunch of one year make-good contracts.
If I was him I would opt out
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Shouldn’t his market be similar to Schwarber, in that both guys should be DH’s? He could be a good option for a team that doesn’t want a long term contract. I could see Seattle, Texas, Oakland, Baltimore, Minnesota, Tampa being among the suitors if the DH remains AL only (which of course he won’t know before the opt out). The only teams that don’t appear to be likely would be those that have no room at DH, which is probably just LA and maybe the Yankees?

Risks for opting in is that he gets hurt and or has a lousy year and enters the market a year older. Potential risk of being traded as well.

Risks for opting out is not being able to find any multi-year deals.

Nelson Cruz got 4/56 at JD’s age, coming off of a 271/333/525 season. JD just put up 286/349/518.
 

ZMart100

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I voted opt out. I don't think a 3/45 contract would be hard for him to find and there is a reasonable chance he can do better. 45m>19.4m
 

Hank Scorpio

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I voted opt out. I don't think a 3/45 contract would be hard for him to find and there is a reasonable chance he can do better. 45m>19.4m
If 3/45 is what he gets on the market, then he probably opts in. He would only need about 2/25 after 2022 to match the hypothetical 3/45.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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If 3/45 is what he gets on the market, then he probably opts in. He would only need about 2/25 after 2022 to match the hypothetical 3/45.
At his age major regression or injury have to be considered. $25 to $30 million more guaranteed will be attractive, I think. If he thinks 3/45-50 is out there, I think it would be foolish for him not to take it.
 

amfox1

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I voted opt out. Any further regression next year, and there is little opportunity for JDM to get a multi-year deal or even an eight-figure one-year deal.
 

chrisfont9

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Exactly. Who are the teams that can a) afford him and b) need a DH? What’s his market if looking for a 2-3 year, $40MM deal? That’s the question JD will be asking before just turning down $20M.

The Mariners? They could use an upgrade from Luis Torrens (whose 102 OPS+ is good for a Catcher and not great for a DH) and some “veteran leadership” on a young squad, but I think that comes down to money.

The White Sox? Eloy Jimenez’s natural position is DH, and after injuring himself badly in the field this spring I wonder whether they would want to clog that spot on their roster for 2-3 years.

Others?
Mariners have Seager's $20m coming off the books, assuming they don't lose their minds and pick up his option. [He's expected to retire but nobody has said anything definitive yet.] They have a lot of holes to fill, but JD would be a nice anchor for them and his swing plays there. The bigger question is whether JD would have any interest in moving to the Northwest for a few extra mil, or stand pat in Boston and hope Chaim doesn't send him packing.
 

mauf

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I voted opt out. I don't think a 3/45 contract would be hard for him to find and there is a reasonable chance he can do better. 45m>19.4m
This is where I’m at, and I voted opt-out, but the CBA expiration is a wild card. Seems that “middle-class” free-agent deals of the sort that JDM will be seeking are the first thing that dries up in a tight market — stars will still get paid, and teams will still need to fill out their rosters, but 3/45 for a DH might be hard to come by.
 

Archer1979

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I went with Opt-In as the CBA is the big variable in this.

Without the DH getting approved in the NL, it really becomes a bird in the hand vs. two in the bush situation. It would be iffy for me if JD would get the same or better contract as an aging DH. A lot of us are hoping for him to Opt-Out just to free up has cash/slot on the roster. I've got to think that the front offices around the league have the same info and more to arrive at the same conclusion.

Obviously, if the DH gets approved to the NL full-time, his potential market expands . I'm not necessarily convinced that it doubles, as there are a few AL teams (NY for example) that have multiple first-base DH guys already on their roster that could become valuable trade commodities, not to mention the NL guys that really would have been DH's (those in the Kyle Schwarber mode).
 

BaseballJones

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JD has earned just under $100 million for his MLB career. Obviously, like any player, he will want to make more. But there's also the uncertainty of the CBA and who the heck knows what's out there. Obviously he and his agent have a much better idea what other teams might be willing to pay him - info that we are not privy to. But it wouldn't shock me if he opts in due to the fact that he's already very financially secure and also because of CBA uncertainty. Who knows how much money he could be giving up.

That said, the financial security also allows him to take a risk. I bet there's another team out there that he already knows will give him a 2-3 year deal worth way more than the $19.3m he's slated to earn with the Sox in 2022. So I bet he opts out, leaving the Red Sox with a vacancy. Now they could always, of course, re-sign him after he opts out, but it also opens the door for Schwarber.

Will be interesting.
 

NDame616

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Mariners have Seager's $20m coming off the books, assuming they don't lose their minds and pick up his option. [He's expected to retire but nobody has said anything definitive yet.] They have a lot of holes to fill, but JD would be a nice anchor for them and his swing plays there. The bigger question is whether JD would have any interest in moving to the Northwest for a few extra mil, or stand pat in Boston and hope Chaim doesn't send him packing.
From the quotes and such I've seen, I think JDM is really just a business guy. I don't want to say "mercenary" because of the negative connotation, but I really think if the Orioles or Dbacks offerred him the most money I'd think he'd sign there
 

Average Reds

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It's a close call and I understand the reasons he might opt-out, but given the disparity between what he'll get paid for next year and what he'd get on the open market, I really think he stays.

I do hope I'm wrong, as it gives the Sox flexibility. We shall see,
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If we expect a limited market for JD, what do we expect for Schwarber? Granted he’s spent nearly all his career in the NL but it seems like he’s best suited for a DH role, at least in the mid term. Are there projections for how long and at what AAV it will take to lock up Schwarber?

Free agent OF’s below, think they kind of tied this way although YMMV

Castellanos
Marte
Avisail Garcia
Schwarber
JD*
Cruz

Rosario
Conforto
Pham
Soler

McCutchen
Canha
Pederson
Blackmon
 

chawson

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If we expect a limited market for JD, what do we expect for Schwarber? Granted he’s spent nearly all his career in the NL but it seems like he’s best suited for a DH role, at least in the mid term. Are there projections for how long and at what AAV it will take to lock up Schwarber?

Free agent OF’s below, think they kind of tied this way although YMMV

Castellanos
Marte
Avisail Garcia
Schwarber
JD*
Cruz

Rosario
Conforto
Pham
Soler

McCutchen
Canha
Pederson
Blackmon
The thing with Schwarber is whether he wants to enter the market as a first baseman, and whether teams see him as one. I kinda believe Bloom’s statement that they like him there.

And then it’s also true that few teams need a first baseman. The Yankees, Giants and Braves are losing Rizzo, Belt and Freeman, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them stayed.

I mostly agree with your tiers, but Castellanos is not a FA, Cruz is not an OF, Blackmon will definitely exercise his player option and stay in Colorado and there’s a good chance Milwaukee picks up Garcia’s after his solid year.
 

E5 Yaz

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I voted opt-out, primarily because of the reasoning @amfox1 gave ... that this is his last-best chance at extending into a bigger deal, especially if the universal DH is instituted.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The thing with Schwarber is whether he wants to enter the market as a first baseman, and whether teams see him as one. I kinda believe Bloom’s statement that they like him there.

And then it’s also true that few teams need a first baseman. The Yankees, Giants and Braves are losing Rizzo, Belt and Freeman, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them stayed.

I mostly agree with your tiers, but Castellanos is not a FA, Cruz is not an OF, Blackmon will definitely exercise his player option and stay in Colorado and there’s a good chance Milwaukee picks up Garcia’s after his solid year.
Castellanos has an opt out (like JD). 2/34 left. Garcia’s option converted into a mutual option. Assume he’ll opt out (1/12 with a 2 buyout) but not a sure thing.

Good points re Cruz, and Blackmon.
 

chawson

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Castellanos has an opt out (like JD). 2/34 left. Garcia’s option converted into a mutual option. Assume he’ll opt out (1/12 with a 2 buyout) but not a sure thing.

Good points re Cruz, and Blackmon.
Ah, my mistake. Thanks. So yeah, that’s more of a flush OF market than I thought.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah it’s not a bad OF market. Seems like there are more good players available in FA this year than the last few. Of course, the CBA looms over all so kind of tough to predict what will happen. Probably nothing, for a while.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Exactly. Who are the teams that can a) afford him and b) need a DH? What’s his market if looking for a 2-3 year, $40MM deal? That’s the question JD will be asking before just turning down $20M.

The Mariners? They could use an upgrade from Luis Torrens (whose 102 OPS+ is good for a Catcher and not great for a DH) and some “veteran leadership” on a young squad, but I think that comes down to money.

The White Sox? Eloy Jimenez’s natural position is DH, and after injuring himself badly in the field this spring I wonder whether they would want to clog that spot on their roster for 2-3 years.

Others?
Tampa Bay? High-priced FA's isn't their MO, of course, but Nelson Cruz is coming off their books, and they should be in GFIN mode.

Cleveland? Probably not the right timing for their cycle, but not impossible they could get to postseason. They figure to spend a bunch this year after a historically low payroll in 2021, and offense much more a priority than pitching.

Mariners? You mentioned above -- they are in window and should be trying to win that division. Are they taking their option on Kyle Seager at 15M? Haniger is FA and assume first choice is figuring out how to keep him, but he goes...?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there an opt-in and then get traded option? Would this be a bad look for the Sox at all?

It seems like if getting traded after he opted-in is a possibility it would make sense for him to opt-out to better control his next stop.

Why would it be a bad look for the Sox? They didn't exercise the option. But yeah it would be a possibility. I'm not sure JD would care too much because any team trading for him is in the playoff picture.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can Sox make a QO if he opts out?
Yes they can. And given that the QO is not that far off in dollar value to the option (slightly cheaper), it's a no-brainer to offer it should he opt-out. They get a pick if he signs somewhere else, and if for some crazy reason he accepts it, they save money (both real dollars and payroll tax-wise).
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Mariners? You mentioned above -- they are in window and should be trying to win that division. Are they taking their option on Kyle Seager at 15M? Haniger is FA and assume first choice is figuring out how to keep him, but he goes...?
Haniger has another (cheap-ish) year, for the record. This is speculation on my part, but I think they might want to keep DH as an option for him specifically in case Julio Rodriguez forces his way up (plausible!). But this scenario assumes health from Kyle Lewis, which is no sure bet. So, I could see them being interested in JD, but also maybe not. Jerry D is tough to predict.
 

The_Dali

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I selected opt-out because why not try to get 2-3 years at age 34 instead of 1-2 years at 35? I can very well see Tampa going hard after him.
 
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