JD: In or Out?

JD will


  • Total voters
    320
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
12,765
Santa Monica, CA
Why not opt out? Someone is going to give him more than one year at similar money. And he's at the age where obvious decline could easily show up next year without warning and screw his chances if he opts for the one-year deal with the Sox before hitting the market.
 

normstalls

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 15, 2004
4,001
I voted that I think he will Opt out, but now I am second guessing myself. I hadn't considered the QO. That really kind of puts him in a bind. As was mentioned above, it's a no brainer for the Sox to put put the QO on him if he Opts out and that makes him a little less appealing in the open market. My guess is at best he gets a 3 year deal (quite possibly at a bit less money per year), whereas as if he Opts in he probably can still get a 2 year deal after next season. It definitely is a really interesting scenario and decision.
 

The_Dali

lurker
Jul 2, 2021
21
Wow, I hadn't considered the QO... that definitely makes things a little tougher for him... but I guess the timing and the CBA will play into it. I still think he opts out.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
2,303
It seems like there is a pretty big variance among what people think JD’s value is. If they are hoping he opts out and they want to sign Schwarber, than I don’t think extending the QO is worth the risk. If you don’t want JD back at $19.4, why would you want him at $18.9 or whatever the QO is?

I also am skeptical as to how realistic a trade of JD would be, if he opts in. You’d need to find a team that wants him but presumably can’t afford him - what could the Sox get back to make it worthwhile to subsidize him? A scenario where they pay to dump JD and his one year deal yet then bring back Schwarber on a 4-5 year deal seems like a really inefficient way to build a team, especially since they won’t have that much $$$ to spend this off-season.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
58,038
It seems like there is a pretty big variance among what people think JD’s value is. If they are hoping he opts out and they want to sign Schwarber, than I don’t think extending the QO is worth the risk. If you don’t want JD back at $19.4, why would you want him at $18.9 or whatever the QO is?
Because having just turned down a better deal, there is zero chance he would accept the QO (players have to decide pretty quickly whether to accept it or not). The Sox would only be offering it to get compensation when he signed elsewhere. If you don't offer the QO, you get no compensation.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
It seems like there is a pretty big variance among what people think JD’s value is. If they are hoping he opts out and they want to sign Schwarber, than I don’t think extending the QO is worth the risk. If you don’t want JD back at $19.4, why would you want him at $18.9 or whatever the QO is?

I also am skeptical as to how realistic a trade of JD would be, if he opts in. You’d need to find a team that wants him but presumably can’t afford him - what could the Sox get back to make it worthwhile to subsidize him? A scenario where they pay to dump JD and his one year deal yet then bring back Schwarber on a 4-5 year deal seems like a really inefficient way to build a team, especially since they won’t have that much $$$ to spend this off-season.
Re trade: They just need to find a team that wants him on a one year deal as opposed to a multi-year deal. I think plenty of teams would be interested and there wouldn’t need to be a subsidy.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,874
I selected opt-out because why not try to get 2-3 years at age 34 instead of 1-2 years at 35? I can very well see Tampa going hard after him.
You think Tampa Bay who won't even pay big money to keep its own players is going to pay something like 3-50 or more for the age 34-36 seasons of a DH?
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Staff member
Dope
Apr 9, 2007
14,132
Washington
With a QO weighing him down, I just don't think JD will get the kind of deal he's looking for. I don't think too many of them are out there and Schwarber will get one of them; maybe with a team he doesn't have to worry about 1B with.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,260
Quincy
Because having just turned down a better deal, there is zero chance he would accept the QO (players have to decide pretty quickly whether to accept it or not). The Sox would only be offering it to get compensation when he signed elsewhere. If you don't offer the QO, you get no compensation.
Because much like Kimbrel, odds are good he sits on the market unsigned until June if a team has to give up compensation for him. He’s not going anywhere this off-season, he’s coming back

In other words, exactly what the post above me says. I really need to start reading before I post
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
58,038
Because much like Kimbrel, odds are good he sits on the market unsigned until June if a team has to give up compensation for him. He’s not going anywhere this off-season, he’s coming back

In other words, exactly what the post above me says. I really need to start reading before I post
Also I don't think you were answering my post, I agree he is not opting out. My point was solely that if he opts out (turning down 1/19.4), there is literally zero chance he will accept the QO (1/18.4). He could opt out, find not much market and come back to BOS for 3/42 or something like that, but there is zero chance he will accept the QO.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,874
Because much like Kimbrel, odds are good he sits on the market unsigned until June if a team has to give up compensation for him. He’s not going anywhere this off-season, he’s coming back

In other words, exactly what the post above me says. I really need to start reading before I post
Kimbrel waited so long because he was waiting for a 5-6 year deal around $100m until late March, not really because of the draft pick compensation.

It used to be a team would lose their top pick as long as it wasn't in the top 10, so for most teams they'd be giving up a 1st rounder. Now it depends on the payroll of the team, but it's more like losing a 2nd or 3rd rounder, not nearly as stiff a penalty.
 

BravesField

lurker
Oct 27, 2021
11
I'm guessing opt out. If the owners give the players the NL DH in the next CBA, which is probably a negligible cost, you've doubled the market of teams from 15 to 30. Now of course not all 15 NL teams are going to run out and sign available DH's, but some will....and I think Boras knows who these teams may be.
On a side note, I'm guessing that Chaim would rather have Schwarber and not JDM as next years DH. So, is it remotely possible that Chaim says to Boras, "If JDM opts in, we are going to try to move him." So at least if JD opts out, he controls his destiny now.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,260
Quincy
Also I don't think you were answering my post, I agree he is not opting out. My point was solely that if he opts out (turning down 1/19.4), there is literally zero chance he will accept the QO (1/18.4). He could opt out, find not much market and come back to BOS for 3/42 or something like that, but there is zero chance he will accept the QO.
My thinking is though if he opts out and declines the q.o. I think they go full bore into getting Schwarber signed to replace him. I really don’t see the team committing to JD longer than maybe a one year deal if Schwarber signs elsewhere. His money can be used elsewhere in a deal for someone younger who can field a position. Who that is I don’t know but that’s my .02
*Edit: the above post came in as I was finishing typing
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,260
Quincy
Kimbrel waited so long because he was waiting for a 5-6 year deal around $100m until late March, not really because of the draft pick compensation.

It used to be a team would lose their top pick as long as it wasn't in the top 10, so for most teams they'd be giving up a 1st rounder. Now it depends on the payroll of the team, but it's more like losing a 2nd or 3rd rounder, not nearly as stiff a penalty.
Maybe it was a little of both but I’m thinking the compensation didn’t help
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,688
I’d like to think that Gm’s aren’t given over to recency bias but I seem to be proven wrong over and over again.
Kimbrell’s lasting impression was time and time again in the post-season trying his darndest to lose the game. Fully understand GM’s would think he would have fully “lost it”.
JDM had a great post-season, and a generally good overall line.
If the two were coming off those endings heading into FA…. I would bet on JDM 8/10 to have 3-4 good seasons.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
58,038
It used to be a team would lose their top pick as long as it wasn't in the top 10, so for most teams they'd be giving up a 1st rounder. Now it depends on the payroll of the team, but it's more like losing a 2nd or 3rd rounder, not nearly as stiff a penalty.
The one exception this year is (of course) the Mets, whose possibly unanticipated consequence of the Kumar Rocker debacle means that since they have the 11th and 14th pick, they would lose the latter (the Rocker pick) if they sign anyone who gets a QO. Good job either way there as usual, Mets.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,874
So if you sign a QO player you lose your second pick, regardless of round?
It depends on your payroll status from the previous season, but all the picks are relative to your other picks, not by round.

If you were a luxury team you lose your 2nd and 5th picks plus international money.

If you got revenue sharing you lose your 3rd pick.

If you weren't either you lose your 2nd pick and international money.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,353
Rogers Park
Because having just turned down a better deal, there is zero chance he would accept the QO (players have to decide pretty quickly whether to accept it or not). The Sox would only be offering it to get compensation when he signed elsewhere. If you don't offer the QO, you get no compensation.
Just thinking this all the way through, if JD would be interested in a multi-year deal after 2022, it might make sense to opt out accept the QO.

The QO is ~$1.5m less than his current deal, but each player can only be QO'd once, so having received a QO might well be worth $1.5m to JDM if it expands his market next offseason.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
58,038
Just thinking this all the way through, if JD would be interested in a multi-year deal after 2022, it might make sense to opt out accept the QO.

The QO is ~$1.5m less than his current deal, but each player can only be QO'd once, so having received a QO might well be worth $1.5m to JDM if it expands his market next offseason.
Oh that's an interesting point, although you're assuming the QO system will be the same in the next CBA, which is far from a lock.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
24,450
If the owners give the players the NL DH in the next CBA, which is probably a negligible cost,
While we won't know for sure until the entirety of the CBA is worked out, people typically think of DHs as being among the most expensive players since many teams are paying end-of-career guys a lot of money to just hit as opposed to paying for one more bullpen arm.

But again, we'd have to see the entire CBA in context to know how that shakes out.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
3,688
Castellanos opted out of 2/34. Seems relevant.
Relevant. But he's 29. 30 in '22 season. He absolutely will get a longer deal for more than $17M annual. Like JD he's an all-bat bad defensive player. I suspect that JD will still opt out but Schwarber and Nick will be picked up before him and on better contracts. I'm more convinced now, too, that if JD doesn't opt out, he'll be traded to the team that misses out on the other all bat sluggers. What are JD's "no-trade" teams if he opts back in?
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,764
Portland
Castellanos and Schwarber have basically the same market IMO. That seemed like a no brainer opt out after the season he had.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
50,906
deep inside Guido territory
Relevant. But he's 29. 30 in '22 season. He absolutely will get a longer deal for more than $17M annual. Like JD he's an all-bat bad defensive player. I suspect that JD will still opt out but Schwarber and Nick will be picked up before him and on better contracts. I'm more convinced now, too, that if JD doesn't opt out, he'll be traded to the team that misses out on the other all bat sluggers. What are JD's "no-trade" teams if he opts back in?
According to Cot's, he can only block trades to 3 teams annually so it's pretty wide open.

  • limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 3 clubs annually)
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
2,303
To trade him would suggest there are teams that would want him at close to his current deal, no? So why wouldn’t those teams pursue him via FA (I’m sure there’s ways for his agent to know there’d be interest). Or is the idea that the Sox would subsidize him and not get much in return?or perhaps trade for a similarly salaried player more in a position of need?

Subsidizing him and then giving Schwarber a big deal seems rather inefficient to me.
 
Last edited:

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
13,486
UWS, NYC
According to Cot's, he can only block trades to 3 teams annually so it's pretty wide open.
Interesting question: which 3 teams do you block if you're JDM? Typically, the strategy would be to block the teams that have the most to offer and make it inconvenient for the team to trade you. While you definitely don't want to wind up in Pittsburgh, the Pirates aren't trading for him anyway.

-- Figure the Red Sox would never get a deal done with MFY, Toronto or TB... so no need to put those on your list.
-- DH isn't a need for the relatively deep-pocketed White Sox or Astros.
-- And DH in the NL is too uncertain to burn one of your embargos there.

I'll guess Seattle, the Angels, and the Twins.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
15,449
Maine
To trade him would suggest there are teams that would want him at close to his current deal, no? So why wouldn’t those teams pursue him via FA (I’m sure there’s ways for his agent to know there’d be interest). Or is the idea that the Sox would subsidize him and not get much in return?or perhaps trade for a similarly salaried player more in a position of need?

Subsidizing him and then giving Schwarber a big deal seems rather inefficient to me.
Seems like the only scenario in which trading Martinez makes sense is if there's a team out there that only wants him for the one year and is willing to give up an interesting prospect in return, preferably without the Sox eating any salary. Otherwise, the Sox are likely better off keeping him and giving him a QO next winter (if that's still a thing) than trading him for salary relief they don't necessarily need.

I do think you're right that if there's a robust enough trade market for one year of JD, odds are there's a team or two that would just as soon sign him to a 2-3 year free agent deal and not give up any prospects. If JD's agents are worth anything, they know whether that market exists just as much as Bloom does.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
516
Pittsboro NC
Castellanos and Schwarber have basically the same market IMO. That seemed like a no brainer opt out after the season he had.
In the CBA thread, Gray Eagle notes that the players’ proposal includes universal DH; DH isn’t noted one way or the other in the review of the owners proposal.
I don’t recall the history of universal DH in past CBA negotiations. Have players always wanted it and owners haven’t?
Just wondering what the chances of it being adopted are since that clearly impacts the thinking of guys like Castellanos and JD re: going to FA this year.
 

thehitcat

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2003
2,138
Windham, ME
In the CBA thread, Gray Eagle notes that the players’ proposal includes universal DH; DH isn’t noted one way or the other in the review of the owners proposal.
I don’t recall the history of universal DH in past CBA negotiations. Have players always wanted it and owners haven’t?
Just wondering what the chances of it being adopted are since that clearly impacts the thinking of guys like Castellanos and JD re: going to FA this year.
I can't speak back to the last work stoppage but I know for a fact that the owners dangled it this past offseason in an attempt to try to keep among other things the expanded playoffs for another year and the players, while they wanted the Universal DH didn't want it enough to do the same playoffs as 2020 along with whatever other things the owners had in the proposal. Basically I don't think it's a huge needle mover for either side but the players tend to want it and the owners are more willing to go forward with it if they get other things.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,292
Chicago, IL
Also I don't think you were answering my post, I agree he is not opting out. My point was solely that if he opts out (turning down 1/19.4), there is literally zero chance he will accept the QO (1/18.4). He could opt out, find not much market and come back to BOS for 3/42 or something like that, but there is zero chance he will accept the QO.
Right - and forgive if this is was said above, BUT - the QO would depress his market. Now a team would have to guarantee him multiple years, AND lose a draft pick. I think that will really limit his options ...which makes me believe, with a potential QO looming, he opts in, takes his chances he won't see decline next year and can land a 2 year deal for 2023-24 ....

The interesting part here is if the Red Sox want JD. They likely prefer Schwarber and surely recognize the redundancy having both of them. I wonder, then, if Sox communicate to JD's team that they won't slap the QO on him if opts out (if that's legal for them to do) which then makes him more likely to opt out ....
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,874
Right - and forgive if this is was said above, BUT - the QO would depress his market. Now a team would have to guarantee him multiple years, AND lose a draft pick. I think that will really limit his options ...which makes me believe, with a potential QO looming, he opts in, takes his chances he won't see decline next year and can land a 2 year deal for 2023-24 ....

The interesting part here is if the Red Sox want JD. They likely prefer Schwarber and surely recognize the redundancy having both of them. I wonder, then, if Sox communicate to JD's team that they won't slap the QO on him if opts out (if that's legal for them to do) which then makes him more likely to opt out ....
Unless they get rid of it he'll still be facing the QO next year
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

Member
SoSH Member
May 19, 2010
1,143
I actually think JD will opt out specifically to force a QO, which he will accept if offered. By accepting the QO he gets basically the same deal he already has and guarantees he can go for a bigger deal next offseason without a QO attached since it can only be done once. And if the Sox don't offer the QO he gets the same situation just a year earlier without the down year risk.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,292
Chicago, IL
Unless they get rid of it he'll still be facing the QO next year
But he would almost certainly except a QO after 2022, because it would exceed whatever salary he could get ...it's trickier this year, because his salary is more than what the QO salary would be. So ... he could opt out now, get the QO slapped on him, have a depressed market, and accept the QO ... and in the process lose some salary. The difference - in star athlete terms - is negligible, so maybe worth the risk for him to opt now.

If he stays, after 2022, and the Sox want him, or a draft pick in his place, they could offer QO, and that would likely exceed maybe not the total of any salary he gets, but certainly be higher annual number then he could get. It's not a higher annual number this year.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
14,838
These are just projections by SoxProspects, but here's the estimated time of arrival to the majors for some key guys in the pipeline:

1b Casas: mid 2022
OF Duran: 2021 (so maybe permanently by mid-2022?)
IF Downs: late 2022
SP Seabold: mid 2022
SP Bello: 2023
SP Groome: 2023
RP Mata: late 2023
P Murphy: mid 2023
SP Winckowski: late 2022
C Wong: mid 2022
C Hernandez: 2023
P Crawford: mid 2022
P Bazardo: late 2021 (so maybe mid-2022)

Ok now obviously not all these guys will pan out. But that's a fair amount of ammo potentially arriving on the scene in the next two years. And behind them are guys like Yorke, Jordan, Lugo, Mayer, Jimenez, etc.

Why do I bring this up here in this thread? Because I'm thinking about the JDM situation. Maybe @Jack Rabbit Slim has it right - a QO means that JD accepts it. He might not be in Boston's long term plans, but maybe they don't need long term plans with him. Maybe 2022 is a bit of a "bridge" year where they can still be super competitive but are really setting the team up for its long-term future in 2023 and beyond.

So JD is the 2022 DH (no Schwarber). But in 2023, Devers can move there, and Dalbec (by all accounts a pretty good fielder at third) can be the third baseman and Casas is ready for the full-time job at first. Devers has the big contract but he's got two young, cost-controlled guys with him. They can rotate at DH (Devers DHs, Dalbec at 3b and Casas at 1b; Casas at DH, Dalbec at 1b and Devers at 3b, etc), which will keep everyone fresh.

Just a possibility.
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

holden
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 2, 2003
12,312
South Shore, MA
But he would almost certainly except a QO after 2022, because it would exceed whatever salary he could get
But only for one year. He'd much rather have the security of a multiyear contract, especially at his age. To say nothing of the QO depressing his market with other teams because signing him would require giving up a high draft pick.
 
Last edited:

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,764
Portland
In the CBA thread, Gray Eagle notes that the players’ proposal includes universal DH; DH isn’t noted one way or the other in the review of the owners proposal.
I don’t recall the history of universal DH in past CBA negotiations. Have players always wanted it and owners haven’t?
Just wondering what the chances of it being adopted are since that clearly impacts the thinking of guys like Castellanos and JD re: going to FA this year.
I'd be very surprised if there was an agreement reached without the universal DH personally. The owners conceded it for the COVID season and the players gave in to more playoffs. There's obviously a lot more on the table than that stuff, but it seems to me it's inevitable.

I don't put Castellanos and JDM in the same category because of where they are at this point in their career. The Reds signed him knowing his limitations and he put up a 4 fWAR season despite being awful in the field. I'm sure they would sign him to the exact same contract if they could.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.