JD Davison, 2nd round pick

[Cesar Crespo]

8'3.5 standing reach, 6'6.5 wingspan.

Super athletic and the things he's bad at are things that should improve with age. I like the pick at 53. He probably flames out but he has legit upside.

Juhann and Davidson. Looks like Brad prefers upside with his late picks.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Maybe he is still growing?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Turnover machine who can’t shoot

Hate The pick but not much to choose from at 53 admittedly

Well we obv didn’t draft someone who was ready to play. His level of athleticism provides the upside as that isn’t teachable but shooting is the most easily learned skill. I saw him plenty last year and he’s super raw but super explosive……but the part that gives me some hope is how hard he plays despite his size. He isn’t a loafer and these are the types who are able to make leaps and his BBIQ showed well at times even if not consistently. If he can slow the game down over the next couple years who knows. Obv the expectations are low as a 53rd pick but the kid has a ways to go before reaching his ceiling so who knows. If he works as hard off the court as he does on then maybe we could catch lightning in a bottle. As others have said the odds are against that…..if they weren’t he wouldn’t have been there at 53.

 

[GB5]

Is a less physically imposing Marcus Banks a comp? PG, crazy athleticism. Raw. Suspect shooting?

 

[djbayko]

A surprising number of reporters are calling him 6'3".

Is it the hair?

Nah. The hair would make him 6’-6”.

Think it’s a really good pick at 54

Then we got a steal at 53

 

[Cellar-Door]

Looking for physical comps, in the combine data no perfect ones,

Chasson Randle is close (but Randle jumped better and had mch better agility)
Kadeem Allen had a significant wingspan advantage, better standing vert, lower total vert
Davonte Graham is actually pretty close overall, little less standing reach
Jaylen Hands was an inch taller, better agility and vertical (both kinds)
Myles Powell didn't do the jumping or agility, but similar size
Cassius Winston significantly better leaper on both vert types

 

[Jimbodandy]

But it's adding that same 1-1.5" to everyone. Whatever I'll let it go.

That's the point. It's not. He claimed 6'3" but measured 6'0.5". They're doing him a favor by saying "6'2.5" in shoes maybe, but he's 2.5 inches shorter than his college listing.

This guy is exactly why barefoot, official measurements are important. When they recalibrated the pros a few years ago, most guys came out 1-1.5" different, but some came out with much bigger swings.

Yeah, whether we use a guy's in-shoes or barefoot measurement is probably immaterial, agreed. But official is important.

Frankly a guy's standing reach and wingspan is probably about 200x more useful than a measurement of the top of his head, barefoot or otherwise, so agreed that we're probably discussed it too much already.

 

[JM3]

Yeah, why not? You miss 100% of shots you don't take so even if you miss 98% on the ones you do take...YOLO.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I like this pick, just because h has the physical talent to at least guard the ball and be a defensive pest off the bench.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That's the point. It's not. He claimed 6'3" but measured 6'0.5". They're doing him a favor by saying "6'2.5" in shoes maybe, but he's 2.5 inches shorter than his college listing.

This guy is exactly why barefoot, official measurements are important. When they recalibrated the pros a few years ago, most guys came out 1-1.5" different, but some came out with much bigger swings.

Yeah, whether we use a guy's in-shoes or barefoot measurement is probably immaterial, agreed. But official is important.

Frankly a guy's standing reach and wingspan is probably about 200x more useful than a measurement of the top of his head, barefoot or otherwise, so agreed that we're probably discussed it too much already.

His wingspan and standing reach are fine for a PG (6.6'5, 8.3'.5), assuming the SG is Smart or Derrick White.

I don't get the (very mild) negative takes with this pick. The guy is an uber athlete and doesn't turn 20 until 10/3. It looks like he has the right attitude and positive work ethic. 2 of his biggest weaknesses are things that can improve with work, experience and repetition. If he's willing to put in the work, he could be a legit NBA player. He also shot 73% from the line. That's not great, but it's also not terrible for a 19 year old.

He's unselfish, creative and should improve a bit as a playmaker. I think his playmaking abilities are maybe getting overlooked/underrated because of the TO issues. He needs to improve his handle some too, as not all his TO are bad decisions. While he doesn't have the best measurements, he is crazy athletic so as long as he tries, he shouldn't be a total liability on D.

At the very least, he will be fun and exciting to keep track of. One can dream on him. His upside is legit NBA starter even if he has less than a 1% chance of getting there.

Some of the videos, it looks like he's dunking on an 8 foot rim.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I like this pick, just because h has the physical talent to at least guard the ball and be a defensive pest off the bench.

Yeah, this sums up what I was saying better.

He has the physical talent to be a real player in this league. There are no physical limitations lowering his ceiling.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, this sums up what I was saying better.

He has the physical talent to be a real player in this league. There are no physical limitations lowering his ceiling.

You're both right. Home run swings on pick 53 are good.

Why the negative takes? Not sure what they expected at this spot in the draft.
There aren’t a lot of them here. Often it's more about the poster.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

For reference, Trae Young is 6'1.5 with a 7'9.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

I'm 5'9 with a 6'4ish wingspan and 7'10 standing reach.

IT4 is 5'9 with a 7'4.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

Weirdly enough, Carsen Edwards was 5'11 with a 6'6 wingspan and 7'10'.5 standing reach.

Kemba's wingspan is 6'4, standing reach is 7'7.5.

Rozier has a 6'8 wingspan and 8'3 standing reach.

JD most resembles Rozier in that regard, at least from the few ex C's I picked. The standing reach is the really big difference between Rozier/Davison and the other smurfs.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is a less physically imposing Marcus Banks a comp? PG, crazy athleticism. Raw. Suspect shooting?

Similarly stylistically in many ways so I’m comfortable calling him a poor man’s Marcus Banks…….but Banks was a REAL good college player so he wasn’t really raw at all. Led his conference in Scoring, Asst and Steals his sophomore year iirc.

 

[Jimbodandy]

For reference, Trae Young is 6'1.5 with a 7'9.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

I'm 5'9 with a 6'4ish wingspan and 7'10 standing reach.

IT4 is 5'9 with a 7'4.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

Weirdly enough, Carsen Edwards was 5'11 with a 6'6 wingspan and 7'10'.5 standing reach.

Kemba's wingspan is 6'4, standing reach is 7'7.5.

Rozier has a 6'8 wingspan and 8'3 standing reach.

JD most resembles Rozier in that regard, at least from the few ex C's I picked. The standing reach is the really big difference between Rozier/Davison and the other smurfs.

With your wingspan, I'm surprised that Ainge didn't draft you. I'm +1/+2.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Similarly stylistically in many ways so I’m comfortable calling him a poor man’s Marcus Banks…….but Banks was a REAL good college player so he wasn’t really raw at all. Led his conference in Scoring, Asst and Steals his sophomore year iirc.

One website compared Davison to Dennis Smith Jr, but his measurements are slightly better than DSJ. He obviously wasn't as far along as DSJ was at age 19, but I think it's an ok comp. Probably not the athlete DSJ was pre injury either. Of course, the big knock on DSJ was his attitude and work ethic and Davison doesn't appear to have those.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

With your wingspan, I'm surprised that Ainge didn't draft you. I'm +1/+2.

Yeah, +7 is on the high end for basketball players. It makes TL even more ridiculous at +10. I think that might be the largest in the NBA.


I think TL is tied with Mo Bamba at +10 actually. Bamba is 7'0 with a 7'10 wingspan (9'6 standing reach). Ridiculous.

And there's actually a website. It's Bamba. TL is tied for 3rd with Isiaah Stewart. 2nd place is Talen Horton Tucker of all people. He is 6'3.5 with a 7'1.25 wingspan.

https://craftednba.com/player-traits/length

I never knew Donovan Mitchell was that long.

 

[kazuneko]

View: https://twitter.com/UA_Athletics/status/1540189468115845121

This is a pretty amazing clip. Saw one site that called Davison’s athleticism “breathtaking”, and I think this shows what they mean.
I mean, Jesus, Davison is apparently Pritchard’s height and yet is somehow able to just explode over the other team’s 7ft 1 inch center (who just happens to be the NCAA’s defensive player of the year, Walker Kessler). In the NBA right now, how many players his height could make this play? On the Cs probably the shortest guy who has a chance of pulling this off is JB and he’s close to a half foot taller..

 

[lovegtm]

For reference, Trae Young is 6'1.5 with a 7'9.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

I'm 5'9 with a 6'4ish wingspan and 7'10 standing reach.

IT4 is 5'9 with a 7'4.5 standing reach and 6'2 wingspan.

Weirdly enough, Carsen Edwards was 5'11 with a 6'6 wingspan and 7'10'.5 standing reach.

Kemba's wingspan is 6'4, standing reach is 7'7.5.

Rozier has a 6'8 wingspan and 8'3 standing reach.

JD most resembles Rozier in that regard, at least from the few ex C's I picked. The standing reach is the really big difference between Rozier/Davison and the other smurfs.

Thanks for that. Didn't realize Kemba was THAT smurfy wrt standing reach.

Davison is firmly within a physical range that has produced plus defenders at PG or even small SG.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Looking for physical comps, in the combine data no perfect ones,

Chasson Randle is close (but Randle jumped better and had mch better agility)
Kadeem Allen had a significant wingspan advantage, better standing vert, lower total vert
Davonte Graham is actually pretty close overall, little less standing reach
Jaylen Hands was an inch taller, better agility and vertical (both kinds)
Myles Powell didn't do the jumping or agility, but similar size
Cassius Winston significantly better leaper on both vert types

I see JD jumped 30"/37" at the combine. This article says that AL measured him at 44" and it "might have gotten better": https://www.si.com/college/alabama/player-development/recruiting-corner-jd-davisons-senior-season-off-to-blazing-start-plus-2023-football-offers.

His tape makes his jump look more like 44" than 37".

 

[Cellar-Door]

I see JD jumped 30"/37" at the combine. This article says that AL measured him at 44" and it "might have gotten better": https://www.si.com/college/alabama/player-development/recruiting-corner-jd-davisons-senior-season-off-to-blazing-start-plus-2023-football-offers.

His tape makes his jump look more like 44" than 37".

Maybe, but I'm always going to default to combine, because whatever flaws there might be, it's standardized and nobody involved has any incentive to juice it.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Just look at that MANE though.

Seriously, what I took away from all this. Top 1 draft pick in hair!

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Maybe, but I'm always going to default to combine, because whatever flaws there might be, it's standardized and nobody involved has any incentive to juice it.

Me too but it really does look like he's dunking on an 8 foot rim. He has such easy hops, too.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Me too but it really does look like he's dunking on an 8 foot rim. He has such easy hops, too.

In addition to looking like he's dunking on an 8 foot rim, for a guy who is 6'0" in shoes, he looks taller than his opponents. Maybe that's his hair.

A few more fun clips.

View: https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1469902604427829248


View: https://twitter.com/overtime/status/1540186877612941313


View: https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1464352097898479620

 

[NomarsFool]

I wish standing reach would become a little more popular in the measurements, because I feel like that is the most applicable measurement. Wingspan is interesting with regards to how much someone can deflect a pass and take up space, and while it is often correlated with standing reach, it doesn't have to be. Someone can have wide shoulders and T-rex arms and have a reasonable wingspan, but they ain't blocking any shots or grabbing any rebounds.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I wish standing reach would become a little more popular in the measurements, because I feel like that is the most applicable measurement. Wingspan is interesting with regards to how much someone can deflect a pass and take up space, and while it is often correlated with standing reach, it doesn't have to be. Someone can have wide shoulders and T-rex arms and have a reasonable wingspan, but they ain't blocking any shots or grabbing any rebounds.

It's pretty much just as popular as wingspan. Not hard to find, at least on the internet.

I think standing reach also plays a pretty big part in dunking too, and that's part of why his dunks look so effortless. He has 8 inches on Kemba in standing reach. That's huge.

His explosiveness is probably less of a factor if he has Kemba's standing reach.

 

[JM3]

I wish standing reach would become a little more popular in the measurements, because I feel like that is the most applicable measurement. Wingspan is interesting with regards to how much someone can deflect a pass and take up space, and while it is often correlated with standing reach, it doesn't have to be. Someone can have wide shoulders and T-rex arms and have a reasonable wingspan, but they ain't blocking any shots or grabbing any rebounds.

Another way to tell if people are blocking shots and/or grabbing rebounds is to look at their block & rebounding stats.

(sorry couldn't resist)

Agree standing reach is probably the next frontier in height stats. It took a long time for wingspan to become mainstream & it's more easily correlatable to height than standing reach. Only a matter of time, though.

 

[Auger34]

Maybe, but I'm always going to default to combine, because whatever flaws there might be, it's standardized and nobody involved has any incentive to juice it.

I think that’s the smartest thing to do for height and measurements (wingspan, standing reach, etc).

Honestly for measurements like vertical and jumping ability I think the combine is less helpful than the actual game. Like who cares what Davison’s vertical was in that setting when on the court he’s clearly a + athlete and jumper

 

[NomarsFool]

I think standing reach also plays a pretty big part in dunking too, and that's part of why his dunks look so effortless. He has 8 inches on Kemba in standing reach. That's huge.

Wow. That is a lot.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, +7 is on the high end for basketball players. It makes TL even more ridiculous at +10. I think that might be the largest in the NBA.


I think TL is tied with Mo Bamba at +10 actually. Bamba is 7'0 with a 7'10 wingspan (9'6 standing reach). Ridiculous.

And there's actually a website. It's Bamba. TL is tied for 3rd with Isiaah Stewart. 2nd place is Talen Horton Tucker of all people. He is 6'3.5 with a 7'1.25 wingspan.

https://craftednba.com/player-traits/length

I never knew Donovan Mitchell was that long.

+10 over 80.5 (6'8.5" no shoes) = +8.5 over 69" fwiw.

Still bigger ratio, but you're a lot closer to TimeLord than not.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think that’s the smartest thing to do for height and measurements (wingspan, standing reach, etc).

Honestly for measurements like vertical and jumping ability I think the combine is less helpful than the actual game. Like who cares what Davison’s vertical was in that setting when on the court he’s clearly a + athlete and jumper

Yeah Semi's vert was fucking absurd, and we never saw it. Connaghton's is huge, and you see it like twice a season in highlights.

 

[Auger34]

Yeah Semi's vert was fucking absurd, and we never saw it. Connaghton's is huge, and you see it like twice a season in highlights.

Yup, good call. I knew there was a guy who tested like a complete freak athlete but played completely stationary and I couldn’t remember who it was and you nailed it…old friend, Semi Ojeleye

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I don’t think we ever saw Semi jump off one foot. Some of the most non-functional athleticism I’ve probably ever seen.

 

[djbayko]

Come to think of it, I can picture Big Baby Davis jumping more than I can Semi.

 

[Imbricus]

Super athletic with a great work effort? At pick 53? Count me in. The ones that scare me are super athletic with a lousy work ethic. Kid seems to play with a lot of energy. I'll trust Brad on this one.

 

[oumbi]

I am copying a post from Celticstrong since it directly concerns JD and helps give some perspective on him. The poster is Jameson416 and what he wrote is below. To be honest, JD is now my bench binky. He replaces Tacko as the guy I will cheer for and hope he turns out well.

Jameson416 wrote:

Long time follower, rarely post. Been a Celtics fan since the late 90s, and that only intensified as I have gotten older. In my house, it's:
1) Alabama football
2) Celtics basketball

Anyway, enough about me, I only gave the background to provide a window of insight (alabama born and raised, still live here) that probably not many C's fans have.

Before this draft, knowing we only had a late 2nd, I hoped that maybe he would slip a little and we could trade up bcz I thought there was no way JD would fall to us. There should be NO (zero) hate with this pick. This guy was a big-time recruit, that came to UA with a ton of fanfare/upside potential. Much of our fan base clamored that he needed to come back another year to develop (probably true, but, his decision). The 2 biggest opposing arguments were that his game/skillset suits the nba better and that he's from letohatchee, which is basically the middle of nowhere. Both are true, and according to nate oats, one and done was the plan all along anyway.

Anyway, this guy had a few nagging injuries that limited him much of the season, but he was still the best athlete on the floor nearly every time out. He's never had to refine his game, bcz he's always been the best athlete in the gym. Hes always played hard and with grit, and everything points to him being committed to working hard. Speaking purely from the standpoint of development, he's the perfect fit for us and we're the perfect situation for him. Not saying he's gonna be an all nba guy, but there's not anyone else we could've gotten with his level of potential upside at such a low cost.

Playing against Marcus smart will be HUGE for JD, and he could definitely surprise us in the future. Hopeful for the best!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah Semi's vert was fucking absurd, and we never saw it. Connaghton's is huge, and you see it like twice a season in highlights.

Brent Barry was another from years ago who had an insane vertical but his game didn’t utilize it……so we only got to see it during the dunk contest.

View: https://youtu.be/9It1HS65xnk

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't think anyone particularly dislikes the pick, just recognizes that the odds are very high this guy is never sniffing being a real NBA player

 

[lovegtm]

I don't think anyone particularly dislikes the pick, just recognizes that the odds are very high this guy is never sniffing being a real NBA player

Let's just agree that this caveat is on all posts so we can stop making it. No one is under any illusions about what picking at #53 means.

 

[radsoxfan]

There was a period in the NBA (up until the late 1990's) where a player like Davison would definitely develop better staying in NCAA for a year than being stapled to the end of the bench and be ignored by the 2-person coaching staff. Between the G League and the expansion of coaching staffs, that dynamic has changed considerably, and there have been enough cases of late 2nd rounders turning into solid rotation players or more to make teams actually care about ensuring their deep bench get a chance to develop.

There probably have been players that may have drafted higher had they stayed in NCAA another year or two, but don't know if that would apply to Davison.

I agree. Currently I think there is no long term harm for prospects leaving school early (it might be beneficial).

If the goal is maximizing the first contract (perhaps not unreasonable), then going back to school to become a potential 1st round pick with more guaranteed money might make some sense.

But a top recruit that doesn't do well in his first season and ends up 2nd round/undrafted isn't going to have a worse long term outlook by going pro.

 

[lovegtm]

I agree. Currently I think there is no long term harm for prospects leaving school early (it might be beneficial).

If the goal is maximizing the first contract (perhaps not unreasonable), then going back to school to become a potential 1st round pick with more guaranteed money might make some sense.

But a top recruit that doesn't do well in his first season and ends up 2nd round/undrafted isn't going to have a worse long term outlook by going pro.

In addition (and I have ZERO evidence this was the case here), a prospect could decide that his college program simply isn't getting him what he needs in relevant reps and skill development, and could bet on himself being able to absorb instruction better in a G-League setting.

There are enough guys who have made significant improvements in their G-League stints (many of them 3-4 year college guys) that it's not crazy to want to get a jump on that process.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I don't think anyone particularly dislikes the pick, just recognizes that the odds are very high this guy is never sniffing being a real NBA player

Mostly exactly this. Though I will admit to liking him better when I though he was 6'3".

 

[lovegtm]

Mostly exactly this. Though I will admit to liking him better when I though he was 6'3".

Yes, although his standing reach is in line with guys who have become fine defenders at the guard spot, and is more meaningful than 6-1 vs 6-3.

It's weird to me that standing reach isn't the go-to number, with wingspan second and height a distant third.

I get that people don't have as good a frame of reference for it, but the disparities between people of similar heights can be enormous. Rob Williams and Grant Williams are only 2 inches different in height, but Rob might as well be a different species in the measurements that matter.

 

[TripleOT]

There have been very few contributors to decent teams coming out of the last five drafts on pics 50 to 60. Monte Morris, Jalen McDaniels, Shake Milton, and that’s about it.

Davison is only 19, is a great athlete, and is said to have a solid work ethic. If the Celtics can develop him and get anything out of him by year three, it’s a win. If they can grab some minutes in his second year, that would be amazing.

i’m looking forward to watching JD and Begarin in Summer League.

 

[Imbricus]

Nice article about him here, featuring an interview with the Alabama beat writer for Sports Illustrated. This guy is really, really high on Davison.

Some of his quotes: "has a ton of potential ... getting him at No. 53 in the second round is an absolute steal ... they got a first-round talent ... I see him as a point guard ... he's a gifted passer; it's more the decision-making. He had a lot of those freshman struggles where he would make freshman mistakes ... has the abilities and athleticism to be a top defender ... I knew he was going to slip, but it's crazy that he slipped to 53."

Of course he compares him (in certain ways) to Ja Morant and Marcus Smart, so yeah, maybe a bit hyperbolic. But Davison does sound like a pretty good pick at 53.

 

[the moops]

Of course he compares him (in certain ways) to Ja Morant and Marcus Smart, so yeah, maybe a bit hyperbolic. But Davison does sound like a pretty good pick at 53.

Maybe a bit?
Geez. We never should listen to beat writers when they start spouting nonsense like this. You can like the pick but any comparison to Ja is ridiculous

 

[JM3]

The divide between disappointing Freshman who come out, & disappointing Freshman who stay an extra year is interesting.

Like where would Ivey have been picked after his Freshman year when he averaged 11 points on 39.9% shooting & 26% on 3s?

How about Keegan Murray after 7 points & 5 boards with 29.6% 3s?

Or Mathurin who put up 10.8/4.8/1.2 (albeit on good shooting).

Davison put up 8.5/4.8/4 3 & 30% 3s. This isn't really worse than the 4th, 5th & 6th picks. Of course, the big question is, would be have been one of those guys who made the jump if he stayed another year?

To keep going, 10th pick Johnny Davis put up 7/4.1/1.1 as a Freshman.

12th pick Jalen Williams put up 7.7/2.8/1.9 as a Freshman & 11.5/4.1/2.3 as a Sophomore.

14th pick Ochai Agjabi played 4 years, his 1st 2 were 8.5/4.6/0.9 & 30.7% 3s, 10/4.2/2 & 33.8% 3s.

15th pick Mark Williams put up 7.1/4.5/0.7 as a Freshman.

17th pick Tari Eason put up 7.3/5.9/1.3 on 24% 3s as a Freshman.

18th pick Dalen Terry put up 4.6/3.2/1.5 on 32.6% 3s as a Freshman.

Etc etc.

So I think he's definitely a good archetype to try to draft a year early & hope for the best.

 

[JM3]

Maybe a bit?
Geez. We never should listen to beat writers when they start spouting nonsense like this. You can like the pick but any comparison to Ja is ridiculous

In his Freshman year at Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference, Ja put up 12.7/6.5/6.3 on 30.7% 3s.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. But yeah, it's pretty silly.

 

[Devizier]

Generally, I’ll trust the expertise of NBA scouts — the absolute elite of their profession — over pretty much anyone else. Except in obvious cases, it’s very hard for laymen to project these guys at the next level. Even informed speculators like NBA columnists and beat writers can’t come close to matching what goes inside a team’s FO. Ultimately the manifestation of these evaluations is the draft itself. A bunch of teams may like player X over Y for reasons unseen to us but pertinent to their ability to succeed at the next level. That doesn’t mean they won’t fuck up, or that there aren’t gems. That’s the fun of it all. But odds are always against late second rounders for obvious reasons.

 

[Imbricus]

But odds are always against late second rounders for obvious reasons.

But there are often a few hits every year or so if you consider late in the draft/undrafted as one big group. Max Strus undrafted. Duncan Robinson undrafted. Fred Van Vleet undrafted. Sure, the odds are against you, but there's a lot of value out there that scouts overlook. Just as there are guys drafted #14 that they're big on who woefully underperform.