Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

DJnVa

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So if I did my math right, Tatum scored 58 points in the 4th quarter of game 6 and first 3 quarters of game 7--the 4 quarters that ended the series.
 

snowmanny

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The fact that Brown and Tatum used the same language (“I am one
of the best basketball players in the world”) makes me wonder if someone is drilling that in their heads. Not a bad thing when the team has been derailed by a too tentative approach at times.
Yeah this is a thing. From an article on Al:

“I think he’s seen the most,” Brogdon said. “But he’s also just sort of taken the throne on leading us and you know you have a special leader when guys like Jayson Tatum, a top-five player in the world, Jaylen Brown, another top player in the world, listen to him. Quiet, they listen to him. They want his feedback. They want his leadership. So Al’s been that special leader for us all season.”
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/05/why-al-horford-stopped-celtics-practice-as-team-prepped-for-heat-series.html?outputType=amp

Also, there’s this, from an anonymous coach quoted in the Athletic:

“Jayson Tatum? ‘Humbly,’ he said, ‘I’m one of the best basketball players in the world.’ Well, (I think) you might be the best, kid. Your time is definitely coming.”
 

InstaFace

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There is a difference between thinking each shot is random and modelling the aggregate of all shots as a random process. This is the difference between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Like what @Devizier said.
Great point. Also known as "the reason statistics is a valid discipline, and not just mumbo-jumbo".

It's also why I have a love-hate relationship with that XKCD comic about sports commentary (posted upthread, and, like, about every month or so on SoSH).

On the one hand, yeah, short-term narratives based on the results of a few games or even a single game are often nonsense.

On the other hand, using those "weighted random number generators" long enough, you can actually learn something useful about trends, habits and behaviors that give you a deeper understanding of the games you enjoy watching. i.e., statistics is a thing. It quenches our thirst for knowledge.

On the third hand, none of us watch sports for the numbers. Humans relate to stories, and we almost crave narratives. Understanding sports psychology, players' histories and storylines, team chemistry, and so on is part of what makes it all watchable for us - what has made it part of our shared cultural touchstones. They're not robots, and we come to care about some of them, the way we care about our friends. The sports being played are just a platform to tell human stories, to create a reality TV show with no script beyond the games and see what falls out.

On the fourth hand, and at an aggregate level, teams rise and fall, players' careers rise and fall, tactics evolve and then become commonplace, and in the long run, everyone trends towards .500. Just like how "in the long run, we are all dead". There's something of an existential uselessness that can pervade trying to pull together some long arc of storyline about sports - something that is, at some deeper level, just blips on a bell curve, very rarely punctuated by parades. Life is short, so do things that bring you joy, or wisdom, or whatever the fuck is the conclusion of your preferred philosophy, right? Don't you all have some business to build, some family to spend time with, some scientific discoveries to pursue?

And yet: legacy matters to us. Shared cultural connections matter, in a fragmented and hectic society where people move around all the time. We want to leave our mark on the world, or at the very least, see that the marks we want to have left on the world do get left, even if our own role in it is small-to-zero. We like Tatum, and we like Boston sports, and we want glory to go to both. We want them to be a part of the long-term story of basketball. Implicitly we kind of all buy into the idea that narratives can and should be shaped by little things like this, that they matter by the sheer force of simply becoming the narrative, fair or not. If it weren't for narratives, or for teams becoming the avatar of a city or region, sports would be just a calorie-burning pastime with some random outcomes attached, and nobody who isn't a participant would care.

And so I struggle with whether Randall Munroe has a point or not. Even with whether I want him to have a point or not. And it flows straight from narratives about Tatum, or Doc Rivers, or whoever is the sports "main character of the day".
 

Eddie Jurak

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The Mr. Hyde versoion of Tatum showed up last night, especially late.

Overall line: 30 points on 9-17 shooting (1 of 3 from three) along with 11-11 from the line, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 4 turnovers

At a glance it is a respectable line.

But here is his 4th quarter: in 8 minutes, he scored 6 points by going 6-6 at the line - but he was anable to even get a shot off from the field. Beyond that, he had one rebound. Just one. Finally, 3 turnovers.

And the performance was worse than the numbers would indicate. At one point, semi-late in the quarter, with the Celtics trailing by 5 but getting stops on D, they went through 2-3 failed offensive possessions where Tatum did not touch the ball. Following that, they did started getting it to Tatum - and he turned the ball over 3 straight times.

As good as he was during ther last five quarters of the Philly series, he was a not-ready-for-prime time abject disaster tonight. I don't think he wanted the ball and when he finally got it he turned it over repeatedly. Beyond that, he had games in Philly where the shooting wants there throughout but he contributed in other ways - rebounding, setting up teammates, blocked shots, etc. Last night he did basically none of that.

There is a Jekyll-and-Hyde aspect to Tatum that I don't get.

I mean, if he shows up and plays decently - not take the game over as in Philly game 6 - in the 4th quarter, the Celtics might have won this game. Instead he was alternately a nonpresence and a negative one.
 

Toe Nash

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"I don't think he wanted the ball" is an insane thing to say. I'm not sure why they weren't getting him involved but come on.

I think him sitting for the first 4 minutes and then not being the focal point of the offense in the 4th after getting shellacked in the 3rd quarter could be a message from Mazzulla, or just a confusing coaching decision. But imagining Tatum would not WANT the ball invalidates your whole point. Par for the course with your posts I suppose.

I look forward to bumping this thread when he wins the series for us again.
 

jezza1918

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The Mr. Hyde versoion of Tatum showed up last night, especially late.

Overall line: 30 points on 9-17 shooting (1 of 3 from three) along with 11-11 from the line, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 4 turnovers

At a glance it is a respectable line.

But here is his 4th quarter: in 8 minutes, he scored 6 points by going 6-6 at the line - but he was anable to even get a shot off from the field. Beyond that, he had one rebound. Just one. Finally, 3 turnovers.

And the performance was worse than the numbers would indicate. At one point, semi-late in the quarter, with the Celtics trailing by 5 but getting stops on D, they went through 2-3 failed offensive possessions where Tatum did not touch the ball. Following that, they did started getting it to Tatum - and he turned the ball over 3 straight times.

As good as he was during ther last five quarters of the Philly series, he was a not-ready-for-prime time abject disaster tonight. I don't think he wanted the ball and when he finally got it he turned it over repeatedly. Beyond that, he had games in Philly where the shooting wants there throughout but he contributed in other ways - rebounding, setting up teammates, blocked shots, etc. Last night he did basically none of that.

There is a Jekyll-and-Hyde aspect to Tatum that I don't get.

I mean, if he shows up and plays decently - not take the game over as in Philly game 6 - in the 4th quarter, the Celtics might have won this game. Instead he was alternately a nonpresence and a negative one.
I still maintain it's an age/maturity thing. This is a bit crude, because I dont think the bbref gamescore metric is the greatest, but not sure what else to use for this exercise. For reference, they cite 40 as an outstanding performance, and 10 as an average performance. I used 20 as a divider line, because Tatum's score last night was 19.6...which I think speaks to your point, his overall stat line was fine but not what you need from your #1 in the playoffs. Anyway, here is what I found using 3 current superstars in the three seasons of playoff games, around Tatum's age, which culminates with a title (the below doesn't look at @bosockboy point about the floor, but now I need to get actual work done so I won't have time to get into that):

Lebron
2010 Playoffs, Age 25, 5/11 games (45%) below 20 gamescore
2011 Playoffs, Age 26, 9/21 games (43%) below 20 gamescore
2012 Playoffs, Age 27, 5/23 games (22%) below 20 gamescore - won the title

Curry
2013 Playoffs, Age 25, 8/12 games (66%) below 20 gamescore
2014 Playoffs, Age 26, 4/7 games (57%) below 20 gamescore
2015 Playoffs, Age 27, 8/21 games (38%) below 20 gamescore - won the title

Giannis
2019 Playoffs, Age 24, 7/15 games (47%) below 20 gamescore
2020 Playoffs, Age 25, 4/9 games (44%) below 20 gamescore
2021 Playoffs, Age 26, 7/21 games (33%) below 20 gamescore - won the title

Tatum
2021 Playoffs, Age 23, 2/5 games (40%) below 20 gamescore (if you combine with his 2020 playoff run when he was 8/17 below 20, 10/22 total is 45%)
2022 Playoffs, Age 24, 13/24 games (54%) below 20 gamescore
2023 Playoffs, Age 25, 5/14 (36%) below 20 gamescore

edit: forgot to add Butler as well, since that will be who Tatum is compared to next couple weeks
2015 Playoffs, Age 25, 8/12 games (66%) below 20 gamescore
2016 - no playoff data
2017 Playoffs, Age 27, 3/6 games (50%) below 20 gamescore
2018 Playoffs, Age 28, 4/5 games (80%) below 20 gamescsore
2019 Playoffs, Age 29, 7/12 games (58%) below 20 gamescore
2020 Playoffs, Age 30, 11/21 games (52%) below 20 gamescore (ill stop here since this was closest he's come to a title)
 
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Eddie Jurak

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I still maintain it's an age/maturity thing. This is a bit crude, because I dont think the bbref gamescore metric is the greatest, but not sure what else to use for this exercise. For reference, they cite 40 as an outstanding performance, and 10 as an average performance.
That's instructive, but game score doesn't capture the extremes. In Philly game 6, Tatum's game score was 12.6. But he overcame a bad start to win that game with a clutch late-4th-quarter performace. In Miami game 1, his game score was 19.6. But in that game he followed up a decent first 3 quarters with a disastrous 4th in which he could not get a shot from the field, went long stretches without touching the ball, and turned it over 3 straight times when he finally did. It was like the bizarro Philly game 6.

Maybe you are still right and it is age/maturity. But it is the extremes that stand out to me.
 

lovegtm

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That's instructive, but game score doesn't capture the extremes. In Philly game 6, Tatum's game score was 12.6. But he overcame a bad start to win that game with a clutch late-4th-quarter performace. In Miami game 1, his game score was 19.6. But in that game he followed up a decent first 3 quarters with a disastrous 4th in which he could not get a shot from the field, went long stretches without touching the ball, and turned it over 3 straight times when he finally did. It was like the bizarro Philly game 6.

Maybe you are still right and it is age/maturity. But it is the extremes that stand out to me.
I do think that other great players have extreme performances in the playoffs; we just don't notice as much, because we're not as locked in watching. LeBron's 4th Q last night was a great example, but Jokic had his rough moments too and was saved by Murray's ridiculous shot-making.

Teams really really try to make superstars uncomfortable in the postseason, and succeed more than you'd think.

With the Celtics for me, it's less that Tatum has the extremes, and more at how inconsistent the team as a whole is in execution.
 

jezza1918

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I do think that other great players have extreme performances in the playoffs; we just don't notice as much, because we're not as locked in watching. LeBron's 4th Q last night was a great example, but Jokic had his rough moments too and was saved by Murray's ridiculous shot-making.

Teams really really try to make superstars uncomfortable in the postseason, and succeed more than you'd think.

With the Celtics for me, it's less that Tatum has the extremes, and more at how inconsistent the team as a whole is in execution.
Well said. I’d add that even in the case of positive extremes - like Tatum’s 4th Q in game 6 last week - overall a team isn’t going far if their superstar is putting up games in total at that level, even if they get away with it sometimes. by the way - there really wasn’t much of a method to my choosing the 20 game score barrier (outside of Tatum falling just short of it, with the team falling just short, in game 1), if someone has a better way of doing that type of comparison, by all means have at it. I’m a relative beginner at some of this analysis compared with many posters here
 

BigSoxFan

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I just can’t believe he sprained his ankle on the first damn play of a Game 7. Talk about the worst possible luck. Feel awful for Jayson. Completely different game, if he doesn’t. Maybe they still lose…but we’ll never know.

And that’s the part of sports that sucks the most. The “what if”.
 

lovegtm

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I just can’t believe he sprained his ankle on the first damn play of a Game 7. Talk about the worst possible luck. Feel awful for Jayson. Completely different game, if he doesn’t. Maybe they still lose…but we’ll never know.

And that’s the part of sports that sucks the most. The “what if”.
He'd have scored more on his own, the 3 point looks would have been cleaner....
 

BigSoxFan

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He'd have scored more on his own, the 3 point looks would have been cleaner....
And he could have carried some of the bad stretches, like he is capable of, been more disruptive on defense, etc. The defense was largely pretty good last night. They just didn’t have enough offensive options once he went down. Maybe Jaylen doesn’t spaz out like he did last night either.
 

lovegtm

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And he could have carried some of the bad stretches, like he is capable of, been more disruptive on defense, etc. The defense was largely pretty good last night. They just didn’t have enough offensive options once he went down. Maybe Jaylen doesn’t spaz out like he did last night either.
As a general rule, getting your alpha scorer hurt on the first play is not conducive to NBA winning.

Even a pregame injury would be better, since you can gameplan and Ewing Theory your way through it.
 

RorschachsMask

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While Tatum himself had a few crap games, he ended up clearly having the best playoffs of his career, 27/11/5 on a 59% TS. But it was another postseason of the team just not being able to withstand him being on the bench, which I REALLY hoped wouldn’t be the case with this roster. I don’t think a lot of people really understand just how much he means to this team, on the court. Clean up his wrist/left hand this summer, and I bet his three ball comes back.

The first screenshot is the teams on/off for the postseason, and the second is them with Jaylen on the court, and Tatum off, for the postseason.

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lovegtm

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While Tatum himself had a few crap games, he ended up clearly having the best playoffs of his career, 27/11/5 on a 59% TS. But it was another postseason of the team just not being able to withstand him being on the bench, which I REALLY hoped wouldn’t be the case with this roster. I don’t think a lot of people really understand just how much he means to this team, on the court. Clean up his wrist/left hand this summer, and I bet his three ball comes back.

The first screenshot is the teams on/off for the postseason, and the second is them with Jaylen on the court, and Tatum off, for the postseason.

View attachment 65452
View attachment 65453
I've been on Team Jaylen since his Kyrie-interrupted 3rd year, but his limits are really showing.
 

RorschachsMask

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I've been on Team Jaylen since his Kyrie-interrupted 3rd year, but his limits are really showing.
I don’t want to harp on him, because I do think he’s a good player, and we know how hard he works. I just think his lack of feel for the game hinders him more than the raw numbers lead people to believe. Here’s the numbers from last years playoffs, and the bubble, with Jaylen on/Tatum off. The sample is massive, and I think it very clear is what it is, at this point.

Many say Jaylen is held back here, but I genuinely think playing here and off of Tatum really masks Jaylen’s weaknesses. As his responsibilities have ramped up, it’s gotten more and more pronounced.

65454

65455
 

NomarsFool

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I would definitely say that Brown has come up big in a number of key, important games. But, despite the fact that Brown has been my favorite player for years, I can't help but feel he really choked in last night's game - and I absolutely, in most circumstances, hate the concept of "choking". Sometimes shots don't go in, sometimes you swing and miss - that's not choking. But, Brown just seemed completely off mentally - and that's something I'm really struggling with. Poor decisions. Deep 3s early in the clock. If Brown drive and kicks, how many times does he pick up an offensive foul? It feels like every time. Allowing yourself to be blocked by Duncan Robinson. It just seemed like his head was a complete mess, and that is concerning to me. I actually am optimistic that he could take the Summer to continue to work on his handle. But, if he's going to come up small in big games like this - that seems harder to fix.
 

TrapperAB

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I would definitely say that Brown has come up big in a number of key, important games. But, despite the fact that Brown has been my favorite player for years, I can't help but feel he really choked in last night's game - and I absolutely, in most circumstances, hate the concept of "choking". Sometimes shots don't go in, sometimes you swing and miss - that's not choking. But, Brown just seemed completely off mentally - and that's something I'm really struggling with. Poor decisions. Deep 3s early in the clock. If Brown drive and kicks, how many times does he pick up an offensive foul? It feels like every time. Allowing yourself to be blocked by Duncan Robinson. It just seemed like his head was a complete mess, and that is concerning to me. I actually am optimistic that he could take the Summer to continue to work on his handle. But, if he's going to come up small in big games like this - that seems harder to fix.
I share all of these same feelings/perceptions. I wonder, will Jaylen see his G7 performance as an indication that he needs Tatum to be the best version of himself in the playoffs? That he needs to be Robin to Tatum or another Batman? Or will he, like many/most exceptional players, still have unwavering faith in his (considerable) skills and want to find out what he's capable of as a true alpha?

I don't want to read too much into one game, but seeing Brown struggle made me wonder and worry about the years to come. Brown is an exceptional Robin. But if anyone's going to count on him to be Batman, the Joker's always gonna win.
 

NomarsFool

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He seemed quite impacted after the game. Good. I'm glad. It was a terrible performance, and based on his comments, he knows it was a terrible performance. I hope that motivates him to get better - that he can't just bask in the glory of being All-NBA and that he needs to keep working.
 

BaseballJones

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One thing that is going to bother me is Tatum’s stat line and his legacy. It’s going to look like he had a crap game last night, and people years from now will look at his stats and say he gagged in game 7. They won’t know or remember that he sprained his ankle really badly on the first play of the game (on which he made a good move to the hoop to draw a foul and get two free throws) and that he played a gritty game just to stay out there.
 

Euclis20

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One thing that is going to bother me is Tatum’s stat line and his legacy. It’s going to look like he had a crap game last night, and people years from now will look at his stats and say he gagged in game 7. They won’t know or remember that he sprained his ankle really badly on the first play of the game (on which he made a good move to the hoop to draw a foul and get two free throws) and that he played a gritty game just to stay out there.
I don't think people are going to be looking too closely at this individual game years down the line, to be honest. This was his 7th (?) game 7, already kind of an unreal number, and his 3rd conference finals game 7. One bad game isn't killing his averages, and anyone doing a specific deep dive down to this one game is probably going to know what happened.
 

Ed Hillel

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I would definitely say that Brown has come up big in a number of key, important games. But, despite the fact that Brown has been my favorite player for years, I can't help but feel he really choked in last night's game - and I absolutely, in most circumstances, hate the concept of "choking". Sometimes shots don't go in, sometimes you swing and miss - that's not choking. But, Brown just seemed completely off mentally - and that's something I'm really struggling with. Poor decisions. Deep 3s early in the clock. If Brown drive and kicks, how many times does he pick up an offensive foul? It feels like every time. Allowing yourself to be blocked by Duncan Robinson. It just seemed like his head was a complete mess, and that is concerning to me. I actually am optimistic that he could take the Summer to continue to work on his handle. But, if he's going to come up small in big games like this - that seems harder to fix.
Jaylen gave his mindset, and maybe some of his teammates, after Game 6 with the TNT crew. Barkley asked what happened at the end of games, and he said they get tight and don't want to be the one to lose the game and blow it. That's really the definition of choking, as it relates to sports. I feel like this is the kind of team that could run off 3 out of 5 titles or something if they could just get over the hump once. They'd likely be playing with a lot less weight on their shoulders.
 

BaseballJones

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Jaylen gave his mindset, and maybe some of his teammates, after Game 6 with the TNT crew. Barkley asked what happened at the end of games, and he said they get tight and don't want to be the one to lose the game and blow it. That's really the definition of choking, as it relates to sports. I feel like this is the kind of team that could run off 3 out of 5 titles or something if they could just get over the hump once. They'd likely be playing with a lot less weight on their shoulders.
That’s fair and I agree. The talent is there. They just have to learn how to win it all, and once they do, the sky is the limit.
 

Euclis20

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My favorite thing about Tatum is that despite the fact that he's already a borderline top 5 player, there's still a lot of room left for growth. Offensive efficiency is the biggest area for him, and it's fun to note that even though his 3p% was the lowest of his career (on top of that really rough pull up 3p%), he had the best season of his career in TS%. He's at something of a crossroads offensively - does he want to be the guy who continues to shoot a million 3s (2nd in 3PAs this year), or is he going to start leaning more into a mid-range/post game where he can spend more time getting to the FT line? His most frequent offensive comp is Durant, but KD has only averaged 5.3 3PA/game since leaving OKC, should Tatum be in that range (compared to the 8+ he's averaged over the last 4 years)? Part of it's an energy thing, it's far easy for him just to jack up contested 3s than it is to keep driving or fighting for space down low, and I'm not unsympathetic to that viewpoint - he's lead the league in minutes played (regular and postseason) since he came into the NBA, and his durability is a major part of what makes him a superstar. When he's hitting his 3s the team is also nearly unbeatable, 7-0 in all games when he scores 50+.

He's gotten better every single season (how many players have increased their ppg, rpg and apg every single year through their first 6 seasons?), I'm very curious to see what he comes back with in the fall.
 

benhogan

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My favorite thing about Tatum is that despite the fact that he's already a borderline top 5 player, there's still a lot of room left for growth. Offensive efficiency is the biggest area for him, and it's fun to note that even though his 3p% was the lowest of his career (on top of that really rough pull up 3p%), he had the best season of his career in TS%. He's at something of a crossroads offensively - does he want to be the guy who continues to shoot a million 3s (2nd in 3PAs this year), or is he going to start leaning more into a mid-range/post game where he can spend more time getting to the FT line? His most frequent offensive comp is Durant, but KD has only averaged 5.3 3PA/game since leaving OKC, should Tatum be in that range (compared to the 8+ he's averaged over the last 4 years)? Part of it's an energy thing, it's far easy for him just to jack up contested 3s than it is to keep driving or fighting for space down low, and I'm not unsympathetic to that viewpoint - he's lead the league in minutes played (regular and postseason) since he came into the NBA, and his durability is a major part of what makes him a superstar. When he's hitting his 3s the team is also nearly unbeatable, 7-0 in all games when he scores 50+.

He's gotten better every single season (how many players have increased their ppg, rpg and apg every single year through their first 6 seasons?), I'm very curious to see what he comes back with in the fall.
I'll opt for work on the 3pt stroke this summer and shoot a million of them.

Tatum, 40% from 3, is the best player in the NBA.
 

koufax32

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He shot 41% on non-pullup threes. He needs to either start hitting those pullups or shoot many fewer of them.
Stop shooting them and driving instead plus adding a post up turn-around fade away from 12-13 feet away is my reasonable Christmas wish for JT. Many have said a JT who shoots 40% from 3 is the best player in the league. There’s your path.
 

BaseballJones

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Tatum really should develop a better post game. He’s already not bad at it but it would be such a great weapon when other stuff isn’t working. If he can’t drive by a guy fine, just take him to the block.
 

TripleOT

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Tatum seems to always come back every year with a little tweak of any weakness from the season before. From watching him, when he doesn’t have to work as hard to hoist a three pointer is when he seems to be the most accurate, but that 29% number surprised me. Was it just a few seasons ago when his step back/side step three was being hit over 40%?
 

slamminsammya

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Tatum seems to always come back every year with a little tweak of any weakness from the season before. From watching him, when he doesn’t have to work as hard to hoist a three pointer is when he seems to be the most accurate, but that 29% number surprised me. Was it just a few seasons ago when his step back/side step three was being hit over 40%?
Yes. I noticed his form got all weird earlier in the year and I don't think he ever figured it out.
 

JakeRae

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Woof. That is really not good.And the closest one to his inefficiency is Trae who likes to pull up from the logo half of the time
Tatum has a 4-year declining trend here from 40% to 36% to 33% to 29%. I’m not sure what to make of that, but it’s additional context that’s worth noting.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yes. I noticed his form got all weird earlier in the year and I don't think he ever figured it out.
Interesting. What did you notice about his form that was weird?

To my eyes, JT has a somewhat "long" (for lack of better term) shooting stroke and it seems to me that there are a few places it can get out of whack.

Honestly asking if you can describe it; not trying to be snarky.
 

slamminsammya

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Interesting. What did you notice about his form that was weird?

To my eyes, JT has a somewhat "long" (for lack of better term) shooting stroke and it seems to me that there are a few places it can get out of whack.

Honestly asking if you can describe it; not trying to be snarky.
I hade some posts about it earlier in the year. The first few months he was much more up and down with how his body moved through the shot and the difference was very noticeable to me. It was actually at a point in the season where the team as a whole was on an insane shooting stretch and no one really cared. I think Tatum was also at like 38% at that point so it seemed like nothing, but then he went on a rough stretch.

I will try and find some example clips. I also don't know shit about basketball technique, I might be imagining.
 

slamminsammya

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Jul 31, 2006
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San Francisco
I hade some posts about it earlier in the year. The first few months he was much more up and down with how his body moved through the shot and the difference was very noticeable to me. It was actually at a point in the season where the team as a whole was on an insane shooting stretch and no one really cared. I think Tatum was also at like 38% at that point so it seemed like nothing, but then he went on a rough stretch.

I will try and find some example clips. I also don't know shit about basketball technique, I might be imagining.
I went back, I researched, I concluded I was making shit up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Interesting. What did you notice about his form that was weird?

To my eyes, JT has a somewhat "long" (for lack of better term) shooting stroke and it seems to me that there are a few places it can get out of whack.

Honestly asking if you can describe it; not trying to be snarky.
Yes for sure. So much wasted motion with his windup and high release. Difficult to be consistent especially early in game developing rhythm and later in game when fatigue sets in.
 

128

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May 4, 2019
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Yes for sure. So much wasted motion with his windup and high release. Difficult to be consistent especially early in game developing rhythm and later in game when fatigue sets in.
Yeah, for as unorthodox and occasionally ugly Brogdon's outside shot can be, it has very few moving parts and is exceptionally efficient.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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I went back, I researched, I concluded I was making shit up.
Probably weren't making it up; just noticed and something and didn't put it down. I'm no shot expert either but unlike what most people believe, going up and down generally is not great for a distance shooter so if you saw that, you're ahead of the game. However, NBA guys' shooting motions are so fast I would think it would take most of us a lot of slow-mo watching to figure things out.

If you want an interesting article on shooting technique, here's a breakdown of Klay's jump shot, which is revered by almost everyone (if not everyone): View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2430552-breaking-down-klay-thompsons-picture-perfect-jump-shot
.

I grew up playing basketball pre-internet and the most interesting two things I've learned about jump shooting from the internet are: (i) a lot of great shooters turn their feet slightly to square up hips, shoulders, and arm and (ii) most NBA shooters don't go straight up and down, it's more like 11/5 and they drive their feet forward (as the article notes).

I'll be interested to see the responses to this post as I know there are a lot of people who have thought about jump shooting more than I have.
 

slamminsammya

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Jul 31, 2006
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Here you can see the streakiness in his three point shooting. This is a smoothed rolling average of:
1) His overall 3p%
2) His 3p% on above the break threes, and
3) His points per 75 possessions from unassisted threes.

66887
 

DGreenwood

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Feb 2, 2003
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Seattle
If you have an Athletic subscription, you can check out Seth Partnow's new NBA player tiers. Tatum is in Tier 2a, along with LeBron, Kawhi, Devin Booker, and Jimmy Butler. That puts him in the group that ranks 7-11 in the NBA. The players ranked ahead of this group are Giannis, Jokic, and Steph in Tier 1a and Durant, Embiid, and Luka in 1b.

Here's the writeup on Tatum:

In the case of Tatum, 90 percent of the time he looks like a Tier 1 player. That 10 percent where he is less than that is a problem, as he goes through bouts of turnover-proneness and poor transition defense. To a large degree, Tatum is representative of the Celtics as a team in that regard, where long stretches of dominance can be undone by moments of seeming madness. Strictly by virtue of his size and frame, Tatum can be, and has been, a more impactful defender than Booker. If that was paired with a little more of Booker’s steadiness and willingness to make quick decisions with the ball more often, I don’t think this would be a discussion, as Tatum would be in the next group up.

If I had to pick one of the two with the explicit goal of winning a championship, I would go with Tatum mostly because of the heightened possibility of an extra gear. But if Booker ultimately enjoys more success because he is less prone to Tatum’s streakiness, I would not be the least bit surprised.