Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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I think there's a good chance we see a change in next year's MVP race, after 6 years of Embiid/Jokic/Giannis. No one takes Embiid seriously, I'm bearish on Giannis' ability to play 65 games again (and if the Bucks don't bounce back somewhat, he doesn't have a real shot), and it will be very, very hard for Jokic to win his 4th in 5 years. He'd probably have to have (statistically) a career year, which is difficult considering how good he's been.
That opens the door for the next group of guys, which is Luka/SGA/Tatum. Despite how this year ended, I think Luka is the frontrunner. If Dallas wins in the mid 50s and are a top 3 seed, I'd bet the house on Luka winning MVP. SGA was the runner up this year, if both he and OKC repeat what they did this year, he'll be near the top of the list again. That leaves Tatum, who I think still needs to improve his statistical profile to have a real shot. That means becoming a more efficient scorer, and pumping up either his points or assists per game.
It's worth noting that if the current Celtics team is the deepest team since the Durant Warriors, no one from those teams came particularly close to winning MVP. Steph/KD had won 3 consecutive MVPs prior to joining up and statistically they were about as good as ever, but Steph finished 6th, 10th and 5th and Durant finished 9th, 7th and 8th. Winning the title grants Tatum legitimacy, but he has a real uphill climb to have a real shot at MVP next year, especially with JB's rise.
That opens the door for the next group of guys, which is Luka/SGA/Tatum. Despite how this year ended, I think Luka is the frontrunner. If Dallas wins in the mid 50s and are a top 3 seed, I'd bet the house on Luka winning MVP. SGA was the runner up this year, if both he and OKC repeat what they did this year, he'll be near the top of the list again. That leaves Tatum, who I think still needs to improve his statistical profile to have a real shot. That means becoming a more efficient scorer, and pumping up either his points or assists per game.
It's worth noting that if the current Celtics team is the deepest team since the Durant Warriors, no one from those teams came particularly close to winning MVP. Steph/KD had won 3 consecutive MVPs prior to joining up and statistically they were about as good as ever, but Steph finished 6th, 10th and 5th and Durant finished 9th, 7th and 8th. Winning the title grants Tatum legitimacy, but he has a real uphill climb to have a real shot at MVP next year, especially with JB's rise.
Yeah I started feeling this way during the conference finals. I feel strongly that if Luka has a similar year and Dallas makes it to 50
wins he is a borderline lock for the MVP. But if/when they flame out in the first or second round the criticism will really start to mount and the national narrative will be very negative for him.
And then the same thing will happen with SGA.
And then Ant.
And then possibly Wemby.
I don't think it's Kobe unless Kobe liked to wear a Celtics t-shirt in his free time:
It is a real photo from his pre draft workout.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/14449708/how-kobe-bryant-almost-became-boston-celtic
Kobe wore a Celtics t shirt when he worked out for the team pre-draft. Boston brass were blown away over the workout, although they selected Antoine Walker. Here’s a pic of Kobe in the shirt with team builder extraordinaire ML Carr. DJ ran the workout, and is pictured playing against Kobe, but Red Auerbach didn’t attend, unfortunately
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/14449708/how-kobe-bryant-almost-became-boston-celtic
Um
It is a real photo from his pre draft workout.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/14449708/how-kobe-bryant-almost-became-boston-celtic
I feel the exact opposite. People now *know* he plays no defense. If he's not visibly better on that end next season, people are going to keep knocking him down a few pegs.
I so wanted him in that draft. The one thing I won't forgive Bird for is talking Boston into 'Toine. The only downside is the chance that the '98 Celtics are bad enough to end up with Dirk instead of Pierce. The Pierce/Bryant Celtics would have been one of the great asshole teams.
Moving this over here from Team USA thread
I got Tatum over Ant today. He's a better shooter, scorer (on lower USG), A/TO ratio, rebounder, & defender.
DARKO has Tatum ranked #2 with Ant at #20. Ant has played 3 fewer seasons, so JT should be better.
I expect the pre-season NBA Media rankings to have JT pretty low after the Olympics + Tatum's 2 month shooting slump.
(plus there are 29 other fan bases the Media has to appease).
Tatum & Ant will have different paths, & the more I think about it, the more I like Tatum's upside better.
In an effort to not sound like a complete Tatum homer, JT needs to improve his 3pt shot selection to be his best self. BUT the rest of it (getting bigger/Point Center) feels like it's already in motion.
Jokic is the best player in the NBA and I don't see that changing for a few seasons. It will take 2-3 years before we see peak JT.
That's cool. I think post-defense is a little overvalued relative to perimeter defense but that's for another discussion. Tatum blew up other things defensively besides jumpers from Mobley in the paint. The CAVs were so beaten up, EM was one of their few scoring options by the end.
I got Tatum over Ant today. He's a better shooter, scorer (on lower USG), A/TO ratio, rebounder, & defender.
DARKO has Tatum ranked #2 with Ant at #20. Ant has played 3 fewer seasons, so JT should be better.
I expect the pre-season NBA Media rankings to have JT pretty low after the Olympics + Tatum's 2 month shooting slump.
(plus there are 29 other fan bases the Media has to appease).
Tatum & Ant will have different paths, & the more I think about it, the more I like Tatum's upside better.
In an effort to not sound like a complete Tatum homer, JT needs to improve his 3pt shot selection to be his best self. BUT the rest of it (getting bigger/Point Center) feels like it's already in motion.
Jokic is the best player in the NBA and I don't see that changing for a few seasons. It will take 2-3 years before we see peak JT.
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I honestly thought JT was gonna develop into a 39-40% guy from 3 on like 9-10 attempts a game. Instead we get a 6'9, 240ish young man who also does a pretty good Kobe cosplay. Not mad, but improving his 3 ball remains his best path to true MVP consideration.
JT could be a high 30s-40% shooter from three if he took more assisted threes out of ball movement and less self generated threes, like the step back he seems to love. I expect the offense to get even more efficient and potent now that Jrue, and KP when he returns, have a year of experience togethe with the core that’s been together for a while. Mazzulla is all about offensively efficiency, with the three point shot being a key element of his approach, and JT has the championship monkey off his back, so hopefully he tweaks his offense some, with less bag, and more open shots.
Yeah, maybe the most shocking thing of the season is that he never caught fire after the ASB nor in the playoffs. We all sat on edge waiting for it to happen so the team would go from complete ass kickers to supernova.
Hopefully we’ll get a great run by him this year. If not, I’ll just settle for another championship.
I mean, he did shoot 40% from 3 on super high volume from January-April (44 games), that’s pretty on fire. Was at 38% for the season, which is a great number. Unfortunately his jumper was broken almost the entire playoffs lol.
You’re totally right but you know what I mean re: JT. Kid can get on fire. Even if it’s just for a couple weeks, hope to see it again next season.
I think he is more selective with shots in general next season, so I think the efficiency will probably jump a bit from the 60% TS of the last two years.
I’m guessing something like 25/9/6 on a 62% TS.
I’ll take it though I think he’ll up his scoring a bit until KP returns. Edit: more than take it.
Agreed. It's entirely in his hands (or head)
If you combine his regular season with the playoffs he was 35.6% this past season
(the good news is it was better than the previous season which was under 35%)His low 3pt shooting % is completely driven by a high % of PU3s. When he knocks off 1-2 of those early clock step-back 3s & takes 1-2 more C&S 3s his efficiency will dramatically increase. We've been talking about this for a while now (like all season).
Boston has several good C&S 3-point shooters in their TOP8. Tatum should take more of that variety & join the party.
It's a nice theory, but he was hitting pullups in the big chunk of the season that Rorshach mentioned, and then was bad on jumpers of all kinds in the playoffs (including 2s).Agreed. It's entirely in his hands (or head)
If you combine his regular season with the playoffs he was 35.6% this past season
His low 3pt shooting % is completely driven by a high % of PU3s. When he knocks off 1-2 of those early clock step-back 3s & takes 1-2 more C&S 3s his efficiency will dramatically increase. We've been talking about this for a while now (like all season).
Boston has several good C&S 3-point shooters in their TOP8. Tatum should take more of that variety & join the party.
That has continued this summer.
Dude needs to fix his shot: it's not a shot quality thing.
His multi-year playoff stretch of poor shooting is not a shot mix issue, you can find these numbers quite easily. And its a pretty large sample. Who the hell knows what's going on.Agreed. It's entirely in his hands (or head)
If you combine his regular season with the playoffs he was 35.6% this past season
His low 3pt shooting % is completely driven by a high % of PU3s. When he knocks off 1-2 of those early clock step-back 3s & takes 1-2 more C&S 3s his efficiency will dramatically increase. We've been talking about this for a while now (like all season).
Boston has several good C&S 3-point shooters in their TOP8. Tatum should take more of that variety & join the party.
or you can just look at a larger sample size, like 101 games or the last 2 seasons or over his career.
Tatum takes a low % of Catch & Shoot 3s. He's really good at those over a large sample size (like most NBA players)
I was talking about the entire season, not the recent 2-months
I expect the slump to pass next season, with his overall 3pt shooting % being dictated by his decision-making.
Looking at NBA.com stats for the playoffs, one thing that jumps out to me is that JT was 5-48 when the nearest defender was 2-4 feet away from him (he did not take any shots when the defender was within 0-2 feet). Which means he was 34-90 (or about 37.7%) on open or wide-open 3Ps, which is not great but not terrible either.
That compares with him being 67-204 (33%) on such tight or very tight 3Ps during the regular season.
In the season before, JT was 71-238 (30%) on such shots during the regular season and 17-62 (27%) during the playoffs.
That compares with him being 67-204 (33%) on such tight or very tight 3Ps during the regular season.
In the season before, JT was 71-238 (30%) on such shots during the regular season and 17-62 (27%) during the playoffs.
FWIW in over 5 games/23 minutes Tatum gave up 18pts to Mobley (Evan made 8 shots while committing 5 turnovers vs. JT)
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628369/head-to-head
Yeah, so that's mid-upper 20s in a regular game for Mobley...that's a lot given his game so it matches the eye test on this one. I guess one can dig into the turnovers to see if that makes up for it---not sure without seeing them if they are about Tatum or not.
To be clear, I think Tatum can defend some 5s....and also that you're being overly optimistic about how many he currently can.
The broader issue for Tatum at 5 right now for me is rim protection, though post defense is separately a concern for him at moment.
Yeah the best reason to have Tatum play opposing centers isn't to surround him with wings and guards, it's so that the real rim protecter (typically KP) can guard the weakest offensive player and cheat into the paint). Tatum did spend a ton of time in the playoffs guarding the opposing center, but almost never without Boston playing a center alongside him.
Just to be clear this is not even about "currently".
High leverage Point-Center Tatum is MUCH, MUCH more about the future. After Horford retires. After KP is done here. After Tatum puts on more muscle.
CJM turned to Tatum throughout the playoffs & in the Championship game. Tatum put clamps on Derrick Likely. Who was coming off a 16/16 WC Finals against Rudy Gobert/Wolves #1 defense.
That's where my FUTURE optimism stems from.
JT is best suited for the game as a 4. My concern is even with him at a muscular 250-255 he'd be too worn out to be as efficient on the offensive end.
I might only post a few times a month but I think some otherwise knowledgeable people here underestimate the pace of the game nowadays. Do you really want your best offensive player (and I'd only take Luka above him going forward as is on that end, unless Ant really blows up) banging down low against guys that got 20 or more pounds on him?
If we're talking situational, like the Dubs death lineup back in the day with a Dray that could actually shoot, that's fine. I hope we're not talking about JT at the 5 for 35+ mpg here.
IMO best plan for now is identify and develop a stretch 5 with draft assets. A 3+D guy who MIGHT have some passing skills like Al.
I might only post a few times a month but I think some otherwise knowledgeable people here underestimate the pace of the game nowadays. Do you really want your best offensive player (and I'd only take Luka above him going forward as is on that end, unless Ant really blows up) banging down low against guys that got 20 or more pounds on him?
If we're talking situational, like the Dubs death lineup back in the day with a Dray that could actually shoot, that's fine. I hope we're not talking about JT at the 5 for 35+ mpg here.
IMO best plan for now is identify and develop a stretch 5 with draft assets. A 3+D guy who MIGHT have some passing skills like Al.
Nobody ever suggested 35mpg of Tatum at the Center (see my posts below)
Agreed, the Center position is taxing, banging down low against the beefier 5s is brutal. But that's not how the team would use JT. Many NBA Centers are now living on the perimeter as shooters, screeners/rollers, offensive hubs. Even a non-shooting BIG like Isaiah Hartenstein spends a fair amount of time on the 3pt line. It's where the game has gone and is going.
High-leverage, short minutes, Point Center Tatum implies he would only play the 5 in important/tight games (mostly playoffs), for 12-20mpg, and against specific matchups. I'm not really going out on a limb here, CJM did exactly that through the entire playoffs (Tatum vs. Lively, Mobley, Turner, Bam). It will only increase over the years as Tatum continues to get bigger/stronger. I doubt you'd see CJM match Tatum up against the Embiids, Jokers, and Andre Drummonds of the world.
It would be similar to the Dubs death lineup. I expect CJM will pair: JAYs + Hauser + White + Jrue more this season (especially with KP out until December & low Horford minutes).
Yes. JT's natural position & where he will mostly play is at the 4/Power Forward/Big Wing/Frontcourt player, whatever name you want to call it. He will also handle the ball a lot and initiate the offense, playing the role of yesteryear's "Point Guard".
The role of versatile Point Center is extremely valuable (modern-day Unicorn). If I squint, it's the road I see where Tatum could be labelled the best player in the NBA in a few seasons (vs. @PedroKsBambino Ant Edwards upside)
Besides Bam, we ALL just watched Tatum guard Mobley (6'11"), Turner (6'11"), Lively (7'1") in the Playoffs...
BIGs don't positionally defend, rebound, block shots, deny the ball, work around picks, etc with the top of their heads
I wouldn't expect JT to be anything other than a high-leverage/short-minute Center in his 20s. Used mostly during late/close or playoffs. Plus Boston still has KP + Al + KornXQ to sop up the slop.
JT seems to be throwing 5-10lbs of muscle on his frame every off-season, by the time he is 30, I could see him as a 20mpg Center.
I'll go on that hill and say Point Center Tatum who shoots 40% from 3 (more C&S please) will be the best player in the NBA.
JT could end up being a slightly smaller, more skilled Giannis in 3-4 years
I see this all the time. Are you (and others) sure you're not overestimating how much bigger/stronger he's going to get? He's already had a noticeable early twenties spurt (rare) and is now 26. Dude's a full-grown man. And a nice/great-sized one for a wing.
I get maybe a few pounds as his metabolism slows into his thirties, but his I think body type is pretty much what it's going to be.
He put on muscle weight last summer. It's all about his workout habits, which have been off the charts since he joined the C's. We see the hardest-working athletes gain muscle weight throughout their careers, long after their growth spurts.
I'm guessing that Tatum will continue to want to get stronger (ala Jaylen Brown) & physically go through opponents' chests when attacking the rim. That added/strength will also help him on D.
No probs. I think ALL of us don't want to see Tatum deal with the wear-n-tear of beef Centers. Brad will just continue to add fungible BIGs (KornXQ) on minimums to do a lot of the regular season dirty work
Expect we'll continue to see more starting Centers on the perimeter & less posting up.
Tatum (C's death lineup) will be a massive mismatch problem for opposing defenses.
AND he'll credibly guard Centers that can shoot the 3 or screen/DHO (but again mostly in high leverage situations)
I think it requires them to continue to have good rebounders at all positions. And we have been fairly blessed in the backcourt in that regard, but there isn't a guarantee we can continue to excel there. But if they do it real mitigates the downside...
Wings have a hard time stopping him on the perimeter, and if the roster building continues with five that are multiple level threats there will be nowhere to hide immobile bigs.
Gotta say I'm very impressed with Mr. Tatum's response to his play time:
Tatum said he didn't confront Kerr over the lack of playing time and instead put Team USA over his individual needs en route to winning his second gold medal Saturday in Paris.
"No. I just stayed a professional," Tatum told reporters, per The Boston Globe's Tara Sullivan. "I came to work every day. Just stay ready. We got great guys on this team and while you feel like you deserve to play and the competitor in you wants to play, as a coach for a reason he makes those decisions. Your job as a player is to stay ready whenever your number is called."
Seeing how things played out on the Celtics this season had to have helped the 6-foot-8, 210-pound forward in this situation. Tatum seemed to adapt the mindset of the contingent of role players on the Celtics who rarely saw the floor during Boston's championship run but never complained -- at least not publicly -- about their position on the team.
"It was challenging," Tatum said. "I can't lie. It was challenging. Especially after the experience of the highest of the highest winning a championship, and then put in a new situation where you've never been in that spot before. But you know, I didn't want to make it about me. I got a chance to come to work with 11 other guys I got nothing but love and respect for. And you know, we won. I'm happy about that."
https://nesn.com/2024/08/did-jayson-tatum-confront-steve-kerr-about-olympic-benchings-celtics-star-opens-up/
Tatum said he didn't confront Kerr over the lack of playing time and instead put Team USA over his individual needs en route to winning his second gold medal Saturday in Paris.
"No. I just stayed a professional," Tatum told reporters, per The Boston Globe's Tara Sullivan. "I came to work every day. Just stay ready. We got great guys on this team and while you feel like you deserve to play and the competitor in you wants to play, as a coach for a reason he makes those decisions. Your job as a player is to stay ready whenever your number is called."
Seeing how things played out on the Celtics this season had to have helped the 6-foot-8, 210-pound forward in this situation. Tatum seemed to adapt the mindset of the contingent of role players on the Celtics who rarely saw the floor during Boston's championship run but never complained -- at least not publicly -- about their position on the team.
"It was challenging," Tatum said. "I can't lie. It was challenging. Especially after the experience of the highest of the highest winning a championship, and then put in a new situation where you've never been in that spot before. But you know, I didn't want to make it about me. I got a chance to come to work with 11 other guys I got nothing but love and respect for. And you know, we won. I'm happy about that."
https://nesn.com/2024/08/did-jayson-tatum-confront-steve-kerr-about-olympic-benchings-celtics-star-opens-up/
That's about as reasonable a response as you will get. It's disappointing for fans and I am sure for him. At the same time, it will likely serve him well in the long run because it shows how fleeting success at the highest level can be. Hopefully he now gets some rest, enjoys his growing family and works on that funky looking J!
I've seen many posts about JT's sub-par performance in the Olympics, including comments that he looked disinterested at times. Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen anyone mention the fact that his second child was born recently. I haven't been able to find an exact date, but likely at some point during the Olympic run. He's made it clear over the last few years that Deuce is way more important to him than basketball (as it should be), so I don't think it's a stretch to conclude that he hasn't been as focused on basketball recently with another child added to the mix. All of the emotions and life logistics that go with a newborn in the middle of everything else going on in the last few months is likely really challenging for him. I'm not saying that's the only reason he went 0-fer from three in the Olympics, but at that level it doesn't take much to get out of whack. Bottom line, given a couple of months to adjust and stabilize things I'm sure he'll be fine come October.