Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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I hate this era, but to be fair to Tatum, pierce shot 6 threes a game at his peak, and the NBA refs awarded drives more then.
Even with the crap outside shooting, Tatum averaging 27/9/4 on a 57% TS in January, after 28/9/4 on a 59% TS In December. It’s insane how inefficient he was to start the season lol.
He’s become basically unstoppable at the rim, I believe he was at 55% within three feet early in December, now he’s up to 69% for the season. If he can get his three ball to start to fall close to anything like before this season? He’s going to be unstoppable offensively. On top of the 51 yesterday, he had 11 potential assists and 3 hockey assists.
As awful as his struggles from outside have been, there’s a real chance it only makes him a better all around player going forward.
He’s become basically unstoppable at the rim, I believe he was at 55% within three feet early in December, now he’s up to 69% for the season. If he can get his three ball to start to fall close to anything like before this season? He’s going to be unstoppable offensively. On top of the 51 yesterday, he had 11 potential assists and 3 hockey assists.
As awful as his struggles from outside have been, there’s a real chance it only makes him a better all around player going forward.
I mentioned it in one of the other threads, but if he was shooting only 10% below his career average from 3 instead of nearly 20% below, he'd be having his best season.
I’m an advanced stat nerd, though I only use them as part of the equation. Even with Tatum shooting 42/32, he’s 6th in RAPTOR’s wins added, 9th in LEBRON, and 12th in EPM.
As frustrating as his shooting as been, it just shows what type of impact he can have on the game. In January the team has a +10.8 net rating when he plays, and -4 when he sits. Is the only guy on the team where they have a negative net rating when sitting.
Imagine a Tatum shooting 40-42% from 3, a more spread floor and the rest of the NBA Stars aging out. I still think there is an outside chance that he's a Top 3 NBA player by the 2023 playoffs
Id guess he would be more in that 5-7 range by then, if the shot corrects of course. Giannis, Jokic, Luka (if he gets into shape), Embiid, and KD would be tough to crack, but ultimate Tatum would be right there, IMO.
People love to jump on the maturity stuff with him. But I dunno, I think that despite his best weapon having abandoned him, the fact that he’s defending his ass off, driving to the rim a ton, making the right reads a majority of the time, and not blaming anyone, shows serious maturity. Of course he has growing up to do, but I think he’s way ahead of the curve there.
While there are a lot of similarities with Pierce at a similar age this season he reminds me more of a young Carmelo who was dominate despite being an awful 3-pt shooter. The only difference is that we know Tatum isn’t an awful 3-pt shooter but their offensive skillset at the same age was so similar.
His three point percentage has gone up 2% over the last two games. Crazy turnaround.
After tonight, he’s averaging 28/9/4 on a 59% TS since the start of December.
After tonight, he’s averaging 28/9/4 on a 59% TS since the start of December.
I haven’t posted these in a couple of months, but Tatum is still way below last years possessions of 3+ dribbles, and possessions of 2-6+ seconds. The 3+ dribbles is down 3% from last year, and the possessions of 2-6+ seconds are down 8% (!).His seconds per touch is still the same, but I care more about him not having as many possessions where he unnecessarily holds the ball for 5/6 seconds.
He’s clearly made an effort with this, shows Ime is getting through to him, especially considering his effort defensively has been great.
He’s clearly made an effort with this, shows Ime is getting through to him, especially considering his effort defensively has been great.
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Karalis writing about Tatum's improvement on drives:
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/01/27/jayson-tatum-on-the-attack-a-dash-of-paul-pierce-adds-an-element-to-his-game-that-could-take-him-to-the-next-level
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/01/27/jayson-tatum-on-the-attack-a-dash-of-paul-pierce-adds-an-element-to-his-game-that-could-take-him-to-the-next-level
How do they get Tatum at 90th percentile perimeter shooting when he's at 33% from 3? Even adjusting for usage, I don't see how that makes sense?
one of the twitter teplies:
The D-LEBRON percentiles for each of those guys:
Tatum: 70th %ile
Luka 52nd %ile
LeBron: 50th %ile
LaVine: 22nd %ile
Mitchell: 8th %ile
Maybe including 2P shooying as "perimrter"?
He's shooting 29% from 10-16 feet and 43% from 16 feet to the 3 point line. I don't think those are 90th percentile type numbers, the top guys from there are usually around 45-50% (Durant, Paul etc).
My only guess is bball index takes difficulty of shots and gravity into account, because Luka grades even higher than Tatum, and he’s shooting 30% from deep. But still a stretch, for this season.
I just like that he’s developed such a well rounded game offensively, and we know what type of three point shooter he really is.
Yes you were correct about difficulty and gravity, and I think my guess about 2Ps is wrong. There's more explanation at the link, but BBall Index glossary says this (https://www.bball-index.com/glossary/):
Perimeter Shooting Talent Grade (2.0)
Our revamped Perimeter Shooting talent grade leverages our Shot Making and Shot Creation values as inputs, as well as accounting for volume to regress down smaller samples. This seeks to capture how well of a 3-point shooter a player is in a neutral environment.
For example, Will Barton and TJ Warren have the same exact 3PT% but very different Perimeter Shooting grades (A- for Barton, D+ for Warren). Barton is achieving his 3PT% on a higher degree of difficulty (looking at his Shot Quality rating), thus has a higher Shot Making rating. He’s also creating 3-point looks at a far better rate than Warren (A vs F ratings in 3PT Shot Creation). Those two factors combined result in Barton having an A- while Warren has a D+, and would tell us that Barton is the more talented 3-point shooter (that should perform more highly in a neutral environment).
The cool thing about is that if it actually measures what it is attempting to accurately, you capture some form of "gravity" as a skill as well as the ability to create shooting space. It also raises a ton of questions but the ability to isolate these very interrelated things from one another feels pretty valuable for a variety of reasons.
Heres his bball index advanced grade card. The BPM has shot up (from 2.5 to 3) since this table updated. Crazy how impactful he’s been even with the three ball slump.
Does anyone have excerpts of the Globe article?
Sounds like his dad (a coach) saw something mechanical with JT's shot
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/01/27/sports/jayson-tatums-father-knew-what-was-wrong-during-celtics-stars-recent-shooting-slump/
Sounds like his dad (a coach) saw something mechanical with JT's shot
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/01/27/sports/jayson-tatums-father-knew-what-was-wrong-during-celtics-stars-recent-shooting-slump/
I just read the article (it was my last free one so no excerpts unfortunately) but his dad just told him to stop overthinking everything
So yeah, not a whole lot in here. Just standard "once you see it go in you are all set" kinda thing.
Thanks for sharing that. Are they available to the public? Can you share a link?
I love it, there’s a ton of data. They put in a lot of work, so I don’t mind paying a little bit.
Many times that’s all it is. I preach this constantly……basketball is a game of instinct not a game of thinking.
Jayson’s form looked fine. He was mostly in rhythm. He was usually open. But he was overthinking.
“I said, ‘I don’t know what it is, whether off-court stuff or the team losing, but get out of your own head,’ ” Justin Tatum said by telephone Thursday night. “Sometimes he gets in his own head and if he doesn’t hit shots, he thinks about it more.
“So just let it go, get back to what your natural grooves are and get it done. He’d never missed 20 3-pointers in a row. He’s never shot that poorly for that many games. So just get back to who you are. It’s a quick fix. And it just takes that instant where that light flashes on to where he knows, ‘I’m built for this. This is what I do. Let me get back on track.’ ”
and
Jayson said this week that his shooting slump might have been a blessing in disguise because it forced him to score in other ways. Justin said Thursday that his son is attacking the basket with poise and purpose, whereas earlier in his career he was sometimes preoccupied with drawing fouls.
“He’s embracing the contact but not looking for it,” Justin Tatum said. “When he looks for it, sometimes he loses the ball or gets distracted and has a turnover. Now he’s going like the contact is supposed to be there, and he’s not reaching his elbows out or doing anything to initiate it. He’s just going through it.”
I think everyone here has recognized his defense significantly bouncing back this year, here’s more proof.
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1488585525011173376?s=20&t=hRlUF77cuqIEi5Q_RBZp2g
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1488585525011173376?s=20&t=hRlUF77cuqIEi5Q_RBZp2g
This was part of a thread where he was discussing DPOY candidates if Gobert and Draymond miss too many more games
Yeah he mentioned Jaylen too, for his drop defense. Which is definitely his biggest strength on that end.
Was a really good thread, a lot of back and forth lol.
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1488598478791987202?s=20&t=bkxS8xUZ8uiPaQ1CIlrlgA
edit: interesting that the guy mentions JB in the same breath as Thybulle as an elite PnR defender in drop coverage, particularly since Cs don't do much drop coverage. I checked his twitter and didn't see any stats but I would be interested in seeing what the numbers say.
Another tweet from the same guy:
Minimum 50 possessions at the rim defended, Jayson Tatum leads the league in pionts allowed per possession.
2nd is Jaren Jackson Jr., allowing 30.1% shooting (!!!!) and 0.656 points per possession.
View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1488583874321866752
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I’m sure Tomasz will eventually upload a defensive highlights video of Tatum, but his length has given other teams FITS on that end of the court this year. Whether it’s team defense or man, he’s been awesome, especially the last couple of months.
One thing I haven't noticed from Tatum is weak side help as a shot blocker. Any idea if that gets quantified?
Nice to see such positives for both JT and JB.
All I can really check is that his attempted blocks per game are a career high 1.2. I’d guess that plays into his defense at the rim being so good.
Since December 1st he’s averaging 27.5/9/4.3 on a 59% TS. And they’ve just demolished teams when he’s on the court. Also here is his updated advanced stats, I believe he’s up to 7th in wins added for EPM, as well. He’s becoming that player we were hoping he’d start growing into. I can post other players advanced stats too, if anyone is curious.
I would guess Synergy captures some of that. Moore is using a combination of sources including Synergy for his analysis, he notes none of them are perfect for defense so you have to combine a bunch
The "combining a bunch" is still status quo on defensive stats in 2022 unfortunately, because the best of the best analytics are still too wonky.
Averaging 30/8/6.4 on a 65% TS over the last 7 games.
He’s significantly leveling up as a passer, and fast.
He’s significantly leveling up as a passer, and fast.
Night and day from last year. He also finally has enough strength to play big, which lets him cover 1-4 now. That's nice for team-building, since you can just use Tatum+Grant at the 4 indefinitely, and focus on guards/wings who can shoot/defend, rather than hoping the Juanchos of the world can be your 4.
("4" doesn't have that much meaning in the modern NBA I guess; I'm using it to mean "big wing")
Is it just me, or does it seem like Jaylen Brown ends up covering a lot of the 4s for other teams? I don't know if that's because the Celtics want it that way, or if the other teams want it that way.
Are you referring to switches or to begin the set? Ime’s defensive system is based around switching everything and since teams know their opponents plays better than their opponent does you can design your set at the start of the clock to manipulate who Jaylen defends later in the shot clock. I haven’t noticed this but do you see the same with Tatum? It could be we are trying to save JT/JB from certain action on that end of the floor. I’ll watch this.
This is how much Jaylen defends each position, per bball index.
PG- 16.8%
SG- 28.8%
SF- 24.4%
PF- 19.5%
C- 11.3%
For Tatum it’s
PG- 14.3%
SG- 27%
SF- 26.9%
PF- 20.6%
C- 11.3%
Both incredibly versatile, Tatum just has the benefit of being an elite team defender on-top of it.
So since his horrific 1-22 stretch he has shot 32-80, which corresponds with the winning streak. He ha also shot fewer FTs.
This indicates what my eyes tell me. The team has much better flow and getting easier scored, in transition, and Tatum is pounding the ball less grinding out fewer possessions. I am not sure the looks he gets are that different, but the energy he is expending on other shots is certainly less. Obviously chicken or the egg. Is the team playing better because he's making 3s, or is he making 3s because the team is playing better, and he is getting better shots. I think the latter, but who knows.
This indicates what my eyes tell me. The team has much better flow and getting easier scored, in transition, and Tatum is pounding the ball less grinding out fewer possessions. I am not sure the looks he gets are that different, but the energy he is expending on other shots is certainly less. Obviously chicken or the egg. Is the team playing better because he's making 3s, or is he making 3s because the team is playing better, and he is getting better shots. I think the latter, but who knows.
I'm pretty sure that you're right. The "open" vs. "wide open" numbers don't point to bad shot selection previously. But there was no flow at all before, and there is now. He's getting his shots in rhythm.