Jaylen Brown's 2020-21 Season

JakeRae

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On the other hand, Mitchell has carried an offense for multiple years, including effectively in the playoffs, and at absolute most Brown has done that for about the last month. That track record difference matters.

Advanced metrics prefer Mitchell, which is worth something (but only something).

I think you have it backwards a bit--there was not a credible, non-fanboy argument for Jaylen over Mitchell until the recent leap. Now, I think there can be and the reasons you state are reasonable. I still lean the other way, but by end of regular season this year might be on your side if things continue as they have been.
I am not sure your point on advanced metrics holds up. Advanced metrics preferred Mitchell, which was absolutely correct. We’re still waiting on some of the metrics to update for 2021 data, but RPM has Jaylen not insignificantly ahead in their extremely noisy first update for 2021 (Jaylen is at 4.60 rating/3.02 wins and Mitchell is at 3.41/2.34). RAPTOR currently has Jaylen as a +2.9 overall player and Mitchell as a +1.3. BPM has Jaylen at 6.6 and Mitchell at 0.7.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I am not sure your point on advanced metrics holds up. Advanced metrics preferred Mitchell, which was absolutely correct. We’re still waiting on some of the metrics to update for 2021 data, but RPM has Jaylen not insignificantly ahead in their extremely noisy first update for 2021 (Jaylen is at 4.60 rating/3.02 wins and Mitchell is at 3.41/2.34). RAPTOR currently has Jaylen as a +2.9 overall player and Mitchell as a +1.3. BPM has Jaylen at 6.6 and Mitchell at 0.7.
That's my point---in any sample greater than the first month of this year the metrics favor Mitchell---but if this year continues as it has been you can certainly make the case for Brown. As you correctly note, there's a lot of noise this early and Jaylen has a more favorable environment (because Tatum is here).

I am a big, big Jaylen believer to be clear...but I'm also trying to be realistic about sample size
 

JakeRae

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That's my point---in any sample greater than the first month of this year the metrics favor Mitchell---but if this year continues as it has been you can certainly make the case for Brown. As you correctly note, there's a lot of noise this early and Jaylen has a more favorable environment (because Tatum is here).

I am a big, big Jaylen believer to be clear...but I'm also trying to be realistic about sample size
Yeah, I think we agree big picture, but do think that enough of Jaylen’s leap is real that he’s probably closed the gap. Given that, I’d take Jaylen over Mitchell because Jaylen’s trajectory is a lot better. Mitchell came into the league very good, and has stayed very good. Jaylen came into the league raw and bad and has consistently improved to the point where is is now very good and is knocking on being elite.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah, I think we agree big picture, but do think that enough of Jaylen’s leap is real that he’s probably closed the gap. Given that, I’d take Jaylen over Mitchell because Jaylen’s trajectory is a lot better. Mitchell came into the league very good, and has stayed very good. Jaylen came into the league raw and bad and has consistently improved to the point where is is now very good and is knocking on being elite.
+1

Player ranking discussions (especially about the future) tend to overweight past performance relative to trajectory.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, I think we agree big picture, but do think that enough of Jaylen’s leap is real that he’s probably closed the gap. Given that, I’d take Jaylen over Mitchell because Jaylen’s trajectory is a lot better. Mitchell came into the league very good, and has stayed very good. Jaylen came into the league raw and bad and has consistently improved to the point where is is now very good and is knocking on being elite.
Beyond that is just the reality that where the offense is close to equal, a 6'6" 235lb hyperathletic four position defender is inherently more valuable than a 6'3" 210lb G defender. Neither is great defensively, but Brown is getting better in that regard. And I love Mitchell, I was hoping before that draft that Boston could have grabbed Denver's available late lottery pick to take him (I mean Denver threw the pick away anyway). Hell, had they just traded the third Brooklyn pick for Mitchell we might have been spared the Kyrie Error.
 

lovegtm

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Not a great shooting game for him, but Jaylen's ability to adjust his jump shots and get them off at different angles is impressive. In the one below, Oubre is giving him enough room to shoot, but only if he fades away slightly, instead of his usual slightly forward hop. This is just one example, but he does this on all jump shot distances.

 

benhogan

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Not a great shooting game for him, but Jaylen's ability to adjust his jump shots and get them off at different angles is impressive. In the one below, Oubre is giving him enough room to shoot, but only if he fades away slightly, instead of his usual slightly forward hop. This is just one example, but he does this on all jump shot distances.

not sure if this makes sense, but in the halfcourt, Jaylen finds much better looks than Tatum. Brown rarely takes a bad shot, while Tatum settles for contested mid-range fadeaways too much for my liking.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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not sure if this makes sense, but in the halfcourt, Jaylen finds much better looks than Tatum. Brown rarely takes a bad shot, while Tatum settles for contested mid-range fadeaways too much for my liking.
My instinct when comparing the two is that yes, of course when Brown can just rely on Tatum to take the difficult shot in a pinch and save the clean looks for himself, that makes Brown look like the more efficient shooter. But during Tatum's absence, what has really impressed me is Brown seemed to keep most of his efficiency even with a larger volume of the offence and being in non-ideal shot clock and double-team situations.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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My instinct when comparing the two is that yes, of course when Brown can just rely on Tatum to take the difficult shot in a pinch and save the clean looks for himself, that makes Brown look like the more efficient shooter. But during Tatum's absence, what has really impressed me is Brown seemed to keep most of his efficiency even with a larger volume of the offence and being in non-ideal shot clock and double-team situations.
I think it's another effect of Brown's improved handle. Tatum came into the league with better skills in that area than Brown, but lately I think Brown is better at driving into traffic and not losing the ball, whereas Tatum's dribble is a little looser and that makes it harder to deal with double teams and get to the rim when defenses are clamped down. That ability/threat to get to the paint at will helps create space and gives a better chance at a good shot.
 

benhogan

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My instinct when comparing the two is that yes, of course when Brown can just rely on Tatum to take the difficult shot in a pinch and save the clean looks for himself, that makes Brown look like the more efficient shooter. But during Tatum's absence, what has really impressed me is Brown seemed to keep most of his efficiency even with a larger volume of the offence and being in non-ideal shot clock and double-team situations.
It's funny because Jaylen's instincts aren't great, he's a little mechanical. Brown is really a learning machine. He knows what spots work for him and every year he keeps on building up his repertoire. He has a lot more ceiling left and think he'll continue to improve quite a bit(esp on defense)
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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It's funny because Jaylen's instincts aren't great. Brown is really a learning machine. He knows what spots work for him and every year he keeps on building up his repertoire. He has a lot more ceiling left and think he'll continue to improve quite a bit(esp on defense)
If it makes sense, I want to have Jayson take the last shot if there is an OOB play with 3 or 4 seconds left on the clock because I want him to dribble as little as possible and take only one or two movements before getting a shot up. But if there is a full 20 seconds to dribble down and run a play I want Jaylen to get the last shot. Brown really takes a technical approach without the ball in the half-court offense to find the best catch and shoot location as a play develops, and as noted by HowBout above he has a very good handle driving to the basket.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not a great shooting game for him, but Jaylen's ability to adjust his jump shots and get them off at different angles is impressive. In the one below, Oubre is giving him enough room to shoot, but only if he fades away slightly, instead of his usual slightly forward hop. This is just one example, but he does this on all jump shot distances.

Jaylen has grown so much in terms of his ability to grind out useful games. In past years, a slow start could quickly turn into like a 2 for 9 shooting night with 5 TOs and not much else. Last night, he ends up at 18-10-4 with a number of key plays down the stretch. Definitely not the prettiest game but things are going really well for him if you can look at last night as just an okay performance.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think it's another effect of Brown's improved handle. Tatum came into the league with better skills in that area than Brown, but lately I think Brown is better at driving into traffic and not losing the ball, whereas Tatum's dribble is a little looser and that makes it harder to deal with double teams and get to the rim when defenses are clamped down. That ability/threat to get to the paint at will helps create space and gives a better chance at a good shot.
I agree, Tatum's handle needs a bit of work as he gets stripped or loses it more than I'd like. It's not a huge gap as he still is very effective driving overall, but a place to improve. Jaylen, who used to struggle mightily here, is now cleaner on this.

Also agree with the comment Jaylen is a learning machine...his improvement is really off-the-charts and continuous. You cannot help but believe this is a great sign for continuing his ascent.
 

lovegtm

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Agree with the above, except that it’s worth noting that Tatum has improved his little midrange fadeaway a lot. Even more than the raw %, guys have to guard it closely, which opens up passes and up-and-unders, and gets guys off their feet for fouls.
 

Kliq

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Not a great shooting game for him, but Jaylen's ability to adjust his jump shots and get them off at different angles is impressive. In the one below, Oubre is giving him enough room to shoot, but only if he fades away slightly, instead of his usual slightly forward hop. This is just one example, but he does this on all jump shot distances.

I like that you pointed this out. I remember that shot from the game, because when he rose to take the shot I remembered thinking it was a lousy shot, but then being impressed he was able to elevate and square his shoulders to get the shot off normally, despite close defense from a long defender. This is an extreme example, but his ability to use his athleticism to square up despite tight defense is one of the main reasons he has been so lethal on mid-range jumpers this season.
 

lovegtm

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I don't know guys. That was a terrible closeout by Oubre more than an impressive adjustment from Brown
I can find any number of clips from this year of Brown making mid-air adjustments on jumpers while keeping his shoulders square and focusing on his follow-through.

Oubre's closeout was bad, but he was still in position to contest well if Brown uses his normal 3-point form.
 

NomarsFool

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We're now first week of February for Romeo. I know we heard about some light shooting recently - if we don't hear about him doing something more substantial soon, it would seem like we are more looking like end of February.
 

radsoxfan

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Well at least if Jaylen is out we can slot in ..... never mind.

If he (or Tatum) is out, we are toast.
 

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A bit odd that Marcus's "calf strain" is now being reported by the Celtics twitter as a "calf tear", is it not?

Ima just pretend I didn't see that.
 

radsoxfan

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A bit odd that Marcus's "calf strain" is now being reported by the Celtics twitter as a "calf tear", is it not?

Ima just pretend I didn't see that.
LOL, I noticed that too. Similar to a sprain, any strain is technically a tear (strain for tendon and muscle, sprain for ligament).

But you're right raise an eyebrow, as often the lower grade injuries are referred to as a strain and the more significant injuries are referred to as a tear in common discussion.

I'm not all that optimistic for the 1-2 week initial timetable. There is a pretty good correlation with ability to walk on the injury right after (Marcus couldn't) and the grade. Additionally, I saw a quote from Stevens talking about how it was still pretty swollen (uncommon for grade 1).

Of course without the MRI we are guessing but reading between the lines sounds more like a grade 1/2 or grade 2 injury than grade 1. Could be closer to a month, but hopefully not.
 

radsoxfan

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Also, as a semi-aside.... the 1-3 grading for ligament and tendon injuries is obviously not very precise. Grade 1 is mild and grade 3 is completely torn, doesn't give much room for nuance. Would be like a Yelp review with only 1-3 stars.

Most musculoskeletal radiologists have at least 5 grades : 1, 1/2, 3, 2/3, and 3. Not all "grade 1" injuries are created equal.

There are also more updated classification systems with more grades, 0-4 and subsets of a-c as well. They aren't commonly used and if you put it in the report for some community orthopods they might look at you cross-eyed. But suffice it to say, we don't know the whole picture based on the "grade 1" initial report.

Here is one for example.

 

benhogan

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A bit odd that Marcus's "calf strain" is now being reported by the Celtics twitter as a "calf tear", is it not?

Ima just pretend I didn't see that.
If they were involved in trade discussions, being less than truthful optimistic on a Smart injury timeline, would probably be helpful
 

Jimbodandy

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Also, as a semi-aside.... the 1-3 grading for ligament and tendon injuries is obviously not very precise. Grade 1 is mild and grade 3 is completely torn, doesn't give much room for nuance. Would be like a Yelp review with only 1-3 stars.

Most musculoskeletal radiologists have at least 5 grades : 1, 1/2, 3, 2/3, and 3. Not all "grade 1" injuries are created equal.

There are also more updated classification systems with more grades, 0-4 and subsets of a-c as well. They aren't commonly used and if you put it in the report for some community orthopods they might look at you cross-eyed. But suffice it to say, we don't know the whole picture based on the "grade 1" initial report.

Here is one for example.

Lots of fantastic context here. Thanks so much.

I think that my uneducated ass took from it what you (educated) did--probably not 2 weeks anymore. But of course they're all some severity of a tear, and maybe it means nothing.
 

GeorgeCostanza

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View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1359390677121966083


Jay King reporting that Jaylen says his knee bothered him last night. Hopefully they can figure it out and it doesn't become a lingering thing. At this point I don't really trust the team's medical staff, though. They haven't been good since they were brought in a few years back.
I would advise Jaylen to get a 2nd opinion. Not sure if I would trust the Celtics team.
Either of you care to unpack these scorchers? I’m not aware of any negligence/incompetence from the Celtics medical staff.
 

Jimbodandy

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Regardless of hot takes, there's no good reason for JB to play through tendonitis. There are a lot of good reasons for him to get PT and stay off his feet.
 

RorschachsMask

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Were there lawsuits or claims of negligence by player or agent that I missed?
No, and I don’t think it’s a massive deal, it happens. I was just giving the two examples that people could be referencing.

Kyrie apparently threw a fit about it initially (shocker), but got over it.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The medical staff thing strikes me as a MBPC spicy hot take that somehow became gospel similar to the Port Cellar classics that the C's have struggled during third periods under Stevens - they have been a top ten third quarter team in all but three seasons over the course of the Stevens era - and the argument that Stevens doesn't challenge enough - he was a top three in challenges last year IIRC.

Finally, as RM notes, Kyrie is one of the sources of these complaints. The very same person who has a dedicated thread covering all of the ridiculous, trolling and self-serving things he says/does.
 

benhogan

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A better read on Kemba's degenerative knee condition, after 3 surgeries, prior to signing could be the reason for the recent hand wringing. BUT have no idea if there was a misdiagnosis by the medical staff.

IMO Danny owns the Kemba signing, good or bad.
 

radsoxfan

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IT's hip was probably on its way to being toast and way beyond saving by the time he got to the Celtics. Maybe if someone intervened much sooner, when he was in his early 20s or something, things would have been different (can shave down bone and try to correct the impingement he had before the labral tearing and cartilage loss gets too bad). I know the narrative is that the Celtics didn't treat his labral tear correctly or quickly but these guys almost all have labral tears. I'm sure the pain was arthritis related given how things played out.

I'm not aware of what Kyrie's initial complaint was with the Celtics. I know he had some hardware removed (placed with Cleveland) and there was concern it was infected when they went in so he got IV antibiotics and couldn't play the rest of the season.

Hard to know much about Jayen's case, tendinitis better than arthritis, that's for sure. He shouldn't be playing through anything significant but sometimes its reasonable to play through mild stuff. The bigger problem is if the tendinitis is so bad that it puts him at risk for rupture by playing through it, but hopefully it's not.
 

radsoxfan

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A better read on Kemba's degenerative knee condition, after 3 surgeries, prior to signing could be the reason for the recent hand wringing. BUT have no idea if there was a misdiagnosis by the medical staff.

IMO Danny owns the Kemba signing, good or bad.
Had to say, these things don't always progress in a linear fashion. They must have know there was some risk with the multiple meniscus surgeries but Kemba had been playing well through that.

Definitely a bit of a red flag, but hard to know when the wheels will fall off. As I've said before, A LOT of these NBA guys are playing with some degree of arthritis and doing it successfully. It's not as simple as seeing the MRI and knowing when someone's time will come.

Having said that, if anyone on the Celtics wants to send me some MRI's and ask my opinion, I'm happy to oblige :)