Jaylen Brown: Will he be enough in Year 8?

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Okay, with the draft behind us, I think it's time to move on from the Year 7 thread and look at Jaylen in Year 8, which will be either his last with the Cs or the start of SUPER MAX JAYLEN or something in between.

One pretty obvious thing to watch for Jaylen this coming season is how he's worked on his handle. Particularly, his left hand. I mean, this is a ROAST:

View: https://twitter.com/FeelLikeDrew/status/1673885714377854978?s=20


(It's someone commenting on a tweet about a microscopic bag: "Jaylen Brown's bag when he goes left.")

There are trade ideas all around, speculation on his extension, and just in general a ton of noise about Boston's second banana. It will be interesting to see where Year 8 takes him.

 

[Jimbodandy]

If only this thread serves the "put all Jaylen hate here" function.

 

[Euclis20]

Frustrating as it was, improving his off hand seems like the kind of thing that he could definitely do with a summer of hard work. It's not dependent on his athleticism, which at this point should start to (very slowly) trend down. The super max deal will instantly transform him from a young all-star to an overpaid borderline top 20 guy without much growth left, but I'm pretty bullish on Jaylen in 23-24.

 

[TripleOT]

We’ve all seen Brown use, his left hand efficiently thousands of times. Of course, it’s easy for someone to put together a video of clips of him making mistakes of the dribble with his left hand over and over again, but Brown is sloppy with his right hand also. To me, his problem isn’t skill level. It’s concentration and mental approach. So many times, JB creates a careless TOnor two early in big games by pressing. Same in big moments at the end of games.

I don’t know if Jaylen works extensively with a sport psychologist, if at all, but he should. Better judgment, especially in key spots, is most needed.

 

[chrisfont9]

Maybe when he isn't mopping up whatever was oozing out of the cut on his right hand, or icing his left wrist after Kyle Lowry's 15th uncalled karate chop and all the other bullshit Miami gets away with... Brown will get back to handling OK or just knocking down shots?

 

[lovegtm]

Jaylen Brown is really good, and long-time MBPC readers will remember that I've been on the Jaylen Train during his '18-19 struggles, at the time of his extension, and up through these playoffs. He's a really good ceiling-raising second or third star, and he looks worse than he is because he was hurt in these playoffs.

However, he is still a contextual star, meaning that team composition and contract matter a lot to his value. Guys like Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Embiid and Durant are non-contextual stars: you just pay them whatever their max is and you're coming out ahead.

Jaylen's value depends on context, and the new CBA has made that context much, much tougher. People forget that there was talk of the new CBA making it easier to keep home-grown stars on big deals, but it came out completely differently and HEAVILY disincentivizes having more than one 35% guy. In addition, the context of this team is that it could probably use more elite shot creation from the guard spot, particularly if that came with better Assist-Turnover than Jaylen gives.

They still may supermax him with the idea of trading, but I don't really see how he is on the roster past this year. Even then, if he has a list of teams that he's good to re-sign with, those teams might give more value right now in a trade, since they can pay him 30% rather than 35% if they acquire him now.

Brad has been if anything more ruthless than Danny, so I don't think sentiment will factor into this at all.

 

[lars10]

Jaylen Brown is really good, and long-time MBPC readers will remember that I've been on the Jaylen Train during his '18-19 struggles, at the time of his extension, and up through these playoffs. He's a really good ceiling-raising second or third star, and he looks worse than he is because he was hurt in these playoffs.

However, he is still a contextual star, meaning that team composition and contract matter a lot to his value. Guys like Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Embiid and Durant are non-contextual stars: you just pay them whatever their max is and you're coming out ahead.

Jaylen's value depends on context, and the new CBA has made that context much, much tougher. People forget that there was talk of the new CBA making it easier to keep home-grown stars on big deals, but it came out completely differently and HEAVILY disincentivizes having more than one 35% guy. In addition, the context of this team is that it could probably use more elite shot creation from the guard spot, particularly if that came with better Assist-Turnover than Jaylen gives.

They still may supermax him with the idea of trading, but I don't really see how he is on the roster past this year. Even then, if he has a list of teams that he's good to re-sign with, those teams might give more value right now in a trade, since they can pay him 30% rather than 35% if they acquire him now.

Brad has been if anything more ruthless than Danny, so I don't think sentiment will factor into this at all.

Honest question.. if (and I understand it’s a big if) Jaylen is second team NBA and a consistent all star.. what salary comps does he have in the NBA? If he’s traded right now do the Celts find themselves in the position of trading a dime for two nickels? Or put another way.. is there any way they get the same value back?

 

[benhogan]

If he’s traded right now do the Celts find themselves in the position of trading a dime for two nickels? Or put another way.. is there any way they get the same value back?

If they trade Brown (a dime) now, those two nickels would have to be in the last year of their contracts to be of equal value. That's part of the reason why it would be so jarring.

If you can get 2 really good players on longer-term contracts (that add up to $30MM/yr) that may be better than having 1 great player (Brown) at $60MM/yr.

 

[RSN Diaspora]

WOW!

View: https://twitter.com/MarcJSpears/status/1683855638110281730

 

[Murby]

Ugh. Why?

 

[RSN Diaspora]

Ugh. Why?

Because he's worth it? I know he had some ball-handling issues, but who is out there that you could plausibly replace him with?

 

[bsan34]

Ugh. Why?

Because your options were supermax, trade for 50 cents on the dollar given his contract status, or let him walk.

 

[MillarTime]

Ugh. Why?

Because 26 year-old All-NBA wings are incredibly tough to find and at the very least you can't lose the asset for nothing. Will be a very tradeable contract if needed down the road as the cap increases significantly (10% a year!) over the next several years.

 

[lovegtm]

No player option, and a trade kicker.

Easily moveable to a Detroit/Charlotte type team for significant assets in 1-3 years, if necessary.

Team will GFIN this season, and has plenty of flexibility to re-configure next summer, if it doesn't work out.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1683857071907667969
The projected extension is based on a $149M salary cap in 2024-25. The final number will be determined next June. Brown is ineligible to be traded for a year.

 

[bosockboy]

Has a trade kicker per Shams.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yeah this was always the likely outcome, no option is great for BOS, he's likely her 2-3 more years

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1683858431529058304

Looks like the Celtics and Jaylen Brown found some good common ground on this deal after a few weeks of negotiating. No player option in the fifth year for Brown but he gets the trade kicker per @ShamsCharania

 

[Kliq]

Happy this got done. Jaylen is not a perfect player, but I love, love, love rooting for him and the Jays, and this team is good enough to win the title. It won't be easy, it will take a lot of work and a few lucky breaks, but it will be so sweet if they raise the Larry O'Brien trophy together as homegrown stars.

 

[Euclis20]

Good for him and the team. Is it an overpay? Yes. Is this the kind of move that you have to do when you're a title contender and facing the possibility of losing your 2nd best player for nothing? Also yes. As dumb as it is when a team like Minnesota or Washington overpay for a all-star level player, teams at the top should be less concerned with good value and more interested in getting and keeping top talent. Never forget that the Bucks gave up a huge haul for Jrue Holiday (Bledsoe, George Hill, 3 1st round picks and a couple swaps), who had just turned 30 and made a single all-star team 7 years earlier.

 

[sonofgodcf]

Awesome, love it. Especially for this year, as it removes any chance of him getting traded mid-season. Now he can focus on the game and not have to answer media chatter sending him out in a trade every other week.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1683860763671252994

Here’s what Boston could be on the hook for if the salary cap jumps 10% over the next 2 seasons:
Jaylen Brown $304M (starts in 24-25)
Jayson Tatum $338M (starts in 25-26)

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

At the very least this makes it very likely that he (and Tatum) will be here for a few more seasons. To me the team's biggest risk was always losing one or both for cents on the dollar.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Well, I'm glad. LFG.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Time to bring one home, Jay’s.

 

[JakeRae]

This is pretty immediately one of the worst contracts in the game, but it was necessary.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Couldn't be more thrilled.

If healthy, they get over the hump this year.

And if they don't go ice fucking cold from deep.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah it's crazy. In no way (IMO) is he "worth" that kind of money. $304 million over 5 years = $60.1 million a year. Holy mother of god.

And yet....I agree with you, @JakeRae - they had to do it. The other options were way, way worse than this.

So they go into the year with three all-NBA level talents: Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis. Porzingis will eat into the other guys' individual stats (and vice-versa), so it will be easy to look at any of them and say, oh they're having a "down" year, but I fully expect the TEAM to be significantly better.

 

[Pmoose82]

View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1683858431529058304

Looks like the Celtics and Jaylen Brown found some good common ground on this deal after a few weeks of negotiating. No player option in the fifth year for Brown but he gets the trade kicker per @ShamsCharania

Does the addition of a trade kicker squash the idea that Brown is unhappy in Boston? I would think that if he was even remotely thinking about asking for a trade in a year or two that he wouldn't want to make it more difficult to be moved.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

This is good news. You do this deal if and only if you're a title contender with him on the roster. I think the Celtics are with Tatum, Brown, and their solid supporting cast. If signing Bradley Beal to the supermax made the Wizards a contender, I would have defended that deal too. The economics of the NBA are all screwed up, but that's the only question that matters. Jaylen Brown individually is probably a negative asset given his contract. In a world where Tatum didn't exist, I would rather they let Jaylen walk rather than paying him so much money they'd have to staple a pick to him to get rid of him.

But Tatum is here, and the Celtics have the chance to compete for titles with those two guys under contract long term, even capped out, if they're smart about how they manage the rest of their roster. That's all that matters.

 

[JakeRae]

Does the addition of a trade kicker squash the idea that Brown is unhappy in Boston? I would think that if he was even remotely thinking about asking for a trade in a year or two that he wouldn't want to make it more difficult to be moved.

No. A trade kicker is waivable so it doesn’t make it harder to request a trade.

 

[Seabass]

Does the addition of a trade kicker squash the idea that Brown is unhappy in Boston? I would think that if he was even remotely thinking about asking for a trade in a year or two that he wouldn't want to make it more difficult to be moved.

It's another tool for him -- if he gets traded he gets more money. If they're dealing him to someplace he really wants to go to, he has the right to waive it. There's no reason for him to not want it.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

This is pretty immediately one of the worst contracts in the game, but it was necessary.

This is not true. If the one-year trade restriction was not in place they absolutely could trade Jaylen on this contract right now for some draft capital and salary filler at minimum. They wouldn’t have to staple picks to the trade to get some team to take Jaylen which is generally my criteria for determining if a contract is “bad” or not.

To be clear I don’t think the Celtics could get anything close to what the Nets got for Durant, for example, but there definitely would be teams willing to give up real assets for Jaylen, even on this contract.

 

[MillarTime]

This is not true. If the one-year trade restriction was not in place they absolutely could trade Jaylen on this contract right now for some draft capital and salary filler at minimum. They wouldn’t have to staple picks to the trade to get some team to take Jaylen which is generally my criteria for determining if a contract is “bad” or not.

To be clear I don’t think the Celtics could get anything close to what the Nets got for Durant, for example, but there definitely would be teams willing to give up real assets for Jaylen, even on this contract.

100% agree

 

[ifmanis5]

Might need an update to the thread title.

 

[Justthetippett]

I don't know if the Jays will ever get the Celtics a championship, but I'm psyched to see them try over the course of their primes. Breaking them up at this point would have really bummed me out. The money is all crazy but that's the CBA.

 

[RG33]

This is pretty immediately one of the worst contracts in the game, but it was necessary.

I think this is a pretty crazy statement. He is a 26 year old wing stud who averaged 26 ppg, shot 49% from the field, has been in 5 ECFs in his 7 years playing in the NBA, and for all intents and purposes is a great teammate and decent guy (questionable Kyrie association not withstanding).

If all 30 NBA teams had the opportunity to sign JB to this contract, all 30 teams would. I can’t imagine there are other NBA players in the league whom teams would sign to this actual contract at this actual moment in time over Jaylen Brown.

Based on this list, I would probably only choose the following over JB:

1. Joel Embiid
2. SGA
3. Giannis
4. Tatum
5. Nikola Jokic

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

I get that as Celtics fans we have seen him everyday and have seen the postseason struggles with his handle, but they guy is a fucking stud in a league with skyrocketing revenues / salary cap. This will look like a great deal in 3 years when Wemby re-ups for like $85M a year.

 

[cardiacs]

Totally fine with this. Basically, everything that @Kliq said.
It will be really fucking sweet if the Jays can cross the finish line together.

 

[Gash Prex]

The Celtics are (rightly) rolling with Tatum and Brown until the wheels fall off them. This was a necessary step. I'd much rather pay a 26 year old Jaylen 50-60 million than somebody like a Chris Paul (a few years ago).

 

[Euclis20]

I think this is a pretty crazy statement. He is a 26 year old wing stud who averaged 26 ppg, shot 49% from the field, has been in 5 ECFs in his 7 years playing in the NBA, and for all intents and purposes is a great teammate and decent guy (questionable Kyrie association not withstanding).

If all 30 NBA teams had the opportunity to sign JB to this contract, all 30 teams would. I can’t imagine there are other NBA players in the league whom teams would sign to this actual contract at this actual moment in time over Jaylen Brown.

Based on this list, I would probably only choose the following over JB:

1. Joel Embiid
2. SGA
3. Giannis
4. Tatum
5. Nikola Jokic

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

I get that as Celtics fans we have seen him everyday and have seen the postseason struggles with his handle, but they guy is a fucking stud in a league with skyrocketing revenues / salary cap. This will look like a great deal in 3 years when Wemby re-ups for like $85M a year.

I might be reading this wrong, but does that list mean that there are only 5 players in the league that you'd rather have over JB over the next 5-6 years?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Good for him and the team. Is it an overpay? Yes.

As people have discussed upthread it's not an overpay. The issue with the NBA's salary structure is that the top 5 or so guys are so wildly underpaid that it makes JB's contract seem like an overpay.

But it really isn't.

Remember it's 35% of the cap line, which is not where the Cs are going to be anytime in the near future. It's something like 25% of the luxury tax line (too lazy to do the math) and as the cap keeps going up 10%, it will become slightly lower as his max raises are below that.

People don't realize how much the cap is going up. So contracts like JB's aren't an issue and will pale in comparison to what is coming down the pike.

 

[ifmanis5]

View: https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1683875496545726465

A couple of Jaylen Brown contract notes, per source: The trade kicker is for less than the 15 percent max. He'll be on a 6-month pay schedule rather than 12 month. (basically, more money in a shorter time).

Summer of 2025 gonna be lit....
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/07/how-jaylen-brown-extension-impacts-celtics-trade-and-future-roster-options.html

Urgency, limitations hit harder in 2024-25
With Brown’s new deal kicking in this year along with an extension for Kristaps Porzingis ($30 million) taking effect, Boston’s books will suddenly get very pricy. The Celtics will have $185.1 million committed to just nine players for the 2024-25 season, which puts them well into luxury tax territory already before even filling out the remainder of the 15-man roster. The team likely won’t have use of any mid-level exception next year and could look to cut some pricy role players on the payroll. Letting Grant Williams walk this offseason for draft picks was an example of this instead of signing him to a long-term deal.
Decision time in 2025-26
With Tatum’s own expected supermax extension set to kick in for the 2025-26 season, the summer of 2025 could be a fork in the road moment for the franchise. The combined salaries of Tatum, Brown and Porzingis at that point are projected to take up nearly 90 percent of the salary cap during the 2025-26 season and that will be happening right as repeater tax penalties kick in for Boston. The Celtics will either need to pay record-breaking tax penalties or downgrade significantly with cost-cutting for their supporting cast. The other possibility? Trading one of their stars to relieve some of the tax burden and build a well-rounded roster.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I know we'll never find out but I'm wondering if they seriously discussed trading the player option for some incentives.

 

[BaseballJones]

As people have discussed upthread it's not an overpay. The issue with the NBA's salary structure is that the top 5 or so guys are so wildly underpaid that it makes JB's contract seem like an overpay.

But it really isn't.

Remember it's 35% of the cap line, which is not where the Cs are going to be anytime in the near future. It's something like 25% of the luxury tax line (too lazy to do the math) and as the cap keeps going up 10%, it will become slightly lower as his max raises are below that.

People don't realize how much the cap is going up. So contracts like JB's aren't an issue and will pale in comparison to what is coming down the pike.

I'll just speak for me, but my issue is understanding all the cap issues and, to be perfectly honest, wrapping my head around the fact that any player is worth north of $60 million a year. I know it's a new era in sports (NBA in particular), but my word, SIXTY million a year?

I think that's the sticking point for some people. That plus the fact (and this is just a timing issue, but it's still a fact) that he just signed the biggest contract in NBA history. Jaylen Brown...biggest contract in NBA history. That's kind of hard to fathom.

 

[Devizier]

People don't realize how much the cap is going up. So contracts like JB's aren't an issue and will pale in comparison to what is coming down the pike.

Ultimately the league is too small. They can tinker at the margins by expanding rosters but an expansion has to be coming.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Just going by online estimates, the valuation for the average NBA franchise has increased by something like ~6X over the past decade. The salary cap is up by ~1.3X over the same period . Nobody should weep for anyone in the NBA but given that they *are* the product its hard to buy arguments that any players are truly overpaid.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I'll just speak for me, but my issue is understanding all the cap issues and, to be perfectly honest, wrapping my head around the fact that any player is worth north of $60 million a year. I know it's a new era in sports (NBA in particular), but my word, SIXTY million a year?

I think that's the sticking point for some people. That plus the fact (and this is just a timing issue, but it's still a fact) that he just signed the biggest contract in NBA history. Jaylen Brown...biggest contract in NBA history. That's kind of hard to fathom.

We go through this in other sports too. Esp NFL when the latest top 12 QB to sign a contract immediately gets to be the highest paid for a brief time until the next one is up.

It’s just a bit magnified here because of the new CBA salary cap increases.

 

[JakeRae]

I think this is a pretty crazy statement. He is a 26 year old wing stud who averaged 26 ppg, shot 49% from the field, has been in 5 ECFs in his 7 years playing in the NBA, and for all intents and purposes is a great teammate and decent guy (questionable Kyrie association not withstanding).

If all 30 NBA teams had the opportunity to sign JB to this contract, all 30 teams would. I can’t imagine there are other NBA players in the league whom teams would sign to this actual contract at this actual moment in time over Jaylen Brown.

Based on this list, I would probably only choose the following over JB:

1. Joel Embiid
2. SGA
3. Giannis
4. Tatum
5. Nikola Jokic

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

I get that as Celtics fans we have seen him everyday and have seen the postseason struggles with his handle, but they guy is a fucking stud in a league with skyrocketing revenues / salary cap. This will look like a great deal in 3 years when Wemby re-ups for like $85M a year.

Jaylen consistently rates really poorly (relative to his box score production) by impact metrics. In other words, if you look at how the team performs with/without Jaylen it shows you a slightly better than average player, not a star. That’s been persistent for years. As one illustration, Jaylen ranked about 80th in the league by LEBRON last year. His comps are guys like Smart, Herro, Lavine, Tobias Harris, and OG Anunoby. I don’t think anyone here thinks that’s an accurate measure of his value, but I’m extremely skeptical Jaylen is a top 30 player and he’s nowhere near that group of 5 guys you list.

Ignoring older players where 6 years from now it’s hard to see them being good, additional players I’m confident are better than Jaylen are: Ja Morant, Doncic, Mitchell, Halliburton, and Booker. There’s a bunch of other younger players I’d probably bet on being better than Jaylen like Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Fox, Sabonis, Porzingis, and Trae, to name some but not all guys in this category. I think there is a reasonable case for Jaylen over any given player in that group but there’s no good case he’s better than all of them.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

I'll just speak for me, but my issue is understanding all the cap issues and, to be perfectly honest, wrapping my head around the fact that any player is worth north of $60 million a year. I know it's a new era in sports (NBA in particular), but my word, SIXTY million a year?

I think that's the sticking point for some people. That plus the fact (and this is just a timing issue, but it's still a fact) that he just signed the biggest contract in NBA history. Jaylen Brown...biggest contract in NBA history. That's kind of hard to fathom.

I'm old enough to remember when Mike Conley, then a 0 time all-star fresh off of a 15 point, 6 assist season shooting under .425 signed the biggest contract in NBA history.

This is just how it happens sometimes.

 

[benhogan]

Just going by online estimates, the valuation for the average NBA franchise has increased by something like ~6X over the past decade. The salary cap is up by ~1.3X over the same period . Nobody should weep for anyone in the NBA but given that they *are* the product its hard to buy arguments that any players are truly overpaid.

This is fair and puts PAY/VALUE in context from the owner's perspective.

Even if Brown flatlines, the contract will have trade value after year 1, especially to teams with young stars on the cusp (ie Orlando, SAS, etc)