True, but they also were not signed for 5 more years. If a team, any team, thinks there is more growth potential in Jaylen (there has gotta be a few of them) those 5 years of control are ridiculously valuable.
Jaylen Brown: Will he be enough in Year 8?
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Ridiculously valuable it a bit extreme. He will be up to 69M/ year in year 5 and a huge chunk of the cap.
Maybe there are some teams that think Jaylen is going to ascend and be a top 5 player in the league, but otherwise I'm not sure I would expect this contract to be "ridiculously valuable" to many. I get why they had to do it and I'm glad he is under contract. This is the right move for the 2023-2024 season for sure and we'll see how everything plays out down the line.
But I do think some here are glossing over some potential downside with this contract. Some injury and/or regression and I'm not sure many teams will be excited to trade much aside from other bad deals to take on this contract. And plenty of metrics think Jaylen isn't even currently a top 20-25 guy now. Let's just hope it never comes to that.
NGL, I like these "this is too much money" threads way more than "why are the owners so cheap" threads.
It makes me want to go back and re-read the “I can’t believe we gave Jaylen Brown a 115 million dollar extension” thread. Those were the days.
In the end, did Jaylen get the absolute max he could get, or did the Celtics get him at a "discount" to that? Just wondering if, in the end, there was really any negotiation here.
This was always the best outcome. It is a disservice to JT and the fans to TOTALLY reset the team around Jayson. Who are you going to get to replace Jaylen's production, and the fact is the grass has not been greener for a number of their free agent signings. (See Gordon and Kemba, to a lesser extent Kyrie.)
He got the absolute most money he could get, there was really just one thing left on the table - the final year could have been a player option, instead it's fully guaranteed.
Rudy Gobert went for a huge haul on a 31-32% contract, at age 30, in part because the contract control let a small market have certainty in acquiring him. l
Jaylen's value among many league front offices is higher than Gobert's, and he's younger.
Of course there is downside, but people are really stretching to try to make this a bad deal for the Cs.
So his current deal is for his age 27 season, and the extension is for his age 28, 29, 30, 31, and 32 seasons.
Or....the very prime of his career.
Or....the very prime of his career.
Most of us would have been thrilled if we could have been guaranteed that, 10 years after the two draft picks were acquired in the KG/PP trade would become 1st and 2nd team all-NBA, signed to supermax contracts entering their primes, on a team contending for a title every year.
JB didn’t fumble the bag when it was time for him to make himself eligible for this contract. Now, he has to stop fumbling the ball in the playoffs. The Jays need to lead this team to a title. Assuming they can make it through the playoffs with their two brittle centers and their oft injured 6th man available, this should be the year.
JB didn’t fumble the bag when it was time for him to make himself eligible for this contract. Now, he has to stop fumbling the ball in the playoffs. The Jays need to lead this team to a title. Assuming they can make it through the playoffs with their two brittle centers and their oft injured 6th man available, this should be the year.
Jaylen Brown is basically a "fringy" All-NBA player. He's clearly a Top 30 player in this league, and fits in with most that are in the Top 15-30 range, where in any given season any player in that group has a shot at earning All-NBA.
Here's the thing: he's 26. There are a number of players in that Top 30 group that are clearly on the downside of their careers and are unlikely to be Top 30 in a couple of years: Harden, Kawhi, Paul George, just to name a few. So it becomes extraordinarily difficult for the Celtics to upgrade or even make a lateral move if they were to trade Brown before the supermax. Older players in this range are always an injury/regression risk, which would cause this team's window to slam shut quickly. Teams are unlikely to move on from the younger players in this group (aka, Mitchell, Bam, etc.) or those that have potential to join that group (Haliburton, etc.).
Now, if you don't believe Brown is a Top 30 or even Top 50 player in this league, then I understand the angst. I have difficulty accepting arguments that Brown is not Top 50. And it's a stretch to me that he's not Top 30 although I get why the on/off related stats give people pause. And I think a Top 30-50 player is still tradeable under the supermax given the prime years of control and the expected cap increases in the future.
Here's the thing: he's 26. There are a number of players in that Top 30 group that are clearly on the downside of their careers and are unlikely to be Top 30 in a couple of years: Harden, Kawhi, Paul George, just to name a few. So it becomes extraordinarily difficult for the Celtics to upgrade or even make a lateral move if they were to trade Brown before the supermax. Older players in this range are always an injury/regression risk, which would cause this team's window to slam shut quickly. Teams are unlikely to move on from the younger players in this group (aka, Mitchell, Bam, etc.) or those that have potential to join that group (Haliburton, etc.).
Now, if you don't believe Brown is a Top 30 or even Top 50 player in this league, then I understand the angst. I have difficulty accepting arguments that Brown is not Top 50. And it's a stretch to me that he's not Top 30 although I get why the on/off related stats give people pause. And I think a Top 30-50 player is still tradeable under the supermax given the prime years of control and the expected cap increases in the future.
I agree with almost all of this but there’s literally no way that Jaylen is not a top 50 player. I get that some metrics don’t like him but that’s way way too far.
I think you can slot him anywhere from about 18-30 and have it be fair. IMO, I would put him in that 20-25 range..but with a chance for some improvement (IE, I think he could get to around 15)
Very fair. It's also ok to hate having your #2 being the highest paid player in the league on the value scale while recognizing that Stevens/Wyc really had no choice in doing so without really sticking their neck out there.
I mean this is basically it. In her heart of hearts even Jalen Brown’s mother would probably call this a non-optimal contract for the Celtics when looking at it purely from a player / contract standpoint. However, it’s pretty obviously the most effective move for the Celtics to have made. Everything else was reshuffling of deck chairs with the potential of falling out of the ship while doing so.
So much of the value proposition is timing.
Either you get lucky with guys early, which the Celtics did, or you try and get guys later on. Sometimes that works, especially if those guys include Lebron James, but usually it goes the way it has for the Clippers (to date).
Worth noting that the Warriors paid through the nose to keep their guys and I don't think they regret that one bit.
Either you get lucky with guys early, which the Celtics did, or you try and get guys later on. Sometimes that works, especially if those guys include Lebron James, but usually it goes the way it has for the Clippers (to date).
Worth noting that the Warriors paid through the nose to keep their guys and I don't think they regret that one bit.
The difference is that they won a Title prior to opening the checkbooks which allowed them to add key components to that team.
Not exactly thrilled, but the Celtics were really over a barrel here, so I think they made the best decision available. I tend to doubt he makes it through the entire contract here, but that means we'll be getting some value back at some point and that's really the name of the game. Couldn't let him walk for nothing, won't be getting enough back this offseason, so it is what it is.
Yup, the only alternative was to trade him this summer. It would have to be to a team on his "list", so that limits the market, and you probably don't get as good a player back.
Now they get one more year of Jaylen at $32M, and then can trade him for more next summer, if they want. There's a bit of risk that he regresses this year and makes that impossible, but not tons.
My "Hot Take" is that Jaylen won't see 2nd Team All-NBA again. Contract year motivation gets escalated when it's Max-Contract year.
Have the Celtics really struggled adding key components to this team? They've been to 5 ECF's, one Finals and their 2 best players are barely in their mid 20's and are now under contract for half a decade (assuming Tatum doesn't go anywhere). In that time period, they've gone out and got Kyrie, Gordon, Brogdon, Kristaps, Horford, White, etc.
They are the odds on favorite, IMO, to win the title next year. If Tatum doesn't roll his ankle 10 seconds into game 7, or blow out his wrist/shoulder last season, or Brogdon's tendon doesn't detach, or Gordon Hayward doesn't tear his foot in half 5 minutes into a season, we may very well be talking about the same reality Golden State had before their run.
Golden State has won 4 titles that could just as easily have been 0 if Curry's ankle problems popped up at the wrong times.
All they can do is put the best team together they can, and then let the chips fall injury wise.
Where is career high 3pt percentage playing off of zinger from a probably outcome perspective? The benchmark is 20-21:
- 2.8 made,
- 7.1 attempted,
- .397
My not-so-hot take - JB who isn't trying to score POINTZ (tm @benhogan ) and leans into playmaking is way more valuable for BOS.
IF JB can materially cut down his TOs, BOS will be a way better team.
I've got a different, but not opposite impression.
The way you get JB to cut down on TO's is to not ask him to be a playmaker/facilitator. Get him moving off ball, get him the ball in stride going to the hoop, get him open looks via cuts and screens.
He's not a point guard, and he's not Point Tatum. He's an instinctual scorer who is at his best when he isn't thinking. If you go back and watch his turnovers in game 7, almost all of them involved him handling the ball in a PnR outside the arc (mostly a function of Tatum getting hurt early) in which he's getting picked clean from behind or trying to dribble through traffic. He needs to be the guy the PnR guys find after they break down the defense.
And this fucking team needs to run, and run and run like their fucking hair is on fire.
That's what I think we're going to see so much more of this year with White running point instead of Smart. White gets the rock and he pushes almost constantly. This team in the open court can be almost unstoppable.
That's what I think we're going to see so much more of this year with White running point instead of Smart. White gets the rock and he pushes almost constantly. This team in the open court can be almost unstoppable.
As for your first point, yes it would be great if JB was one of those guys who took at most one or two dribbles and either shot or passed. However, my guess is that JB does not see himself this way so, as everyone who has ever discussed the Cs would acknowledged, JB is going to have the ball is his hands. A lot.
As for your second point, I think everyone in the league knows that the Cs are lethal in transition so they game plan to try to stop that from happening. Gabe Vincent when he talked to Reddick mentioned this for one.
I don't disagree with the outcome but I don't think it will have anything to do with JB's motivation to improve or play hard. Moreso that there are other up-and-comers who could supplant him and the injury chips fell in his favor last year with regards to older superstars.
Just a note, he is not the highest paid player in the league and if the cap goes up the expected 10% each year he never will be the highest paid player
The other factor is that both Brown and the Celtics will be more willing to undergo "maintenance days" without worrying about the 65-game requirement.
EDIT: Thank you for the correction.
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Isn’t he eligible for the supermax next summer based on his recognition as first team All-NBA the last two seasons regardless of whether he is recognized this coming season?
That’s certainly what yahoo thinks.
Curiously, I really didn’t think that Jalen was getting the full Supermax. I guess they really must’ve thought he’d finish this year and be gone, no bluff.
https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/celtics-jayson-tatum-and-jaylen-brown-eligible-for-613-million-in-supermax-contracts-after-all-nba-honors-233526111.html
Once he was eligible for it, it was highly unlikely he was going to get much less than the full Supermax. It’s a respect thing and going too low has a high chance of completely alienating the player
Yeah, youre right, and it seemed largely the consensus. I just thought there was sooo much space between what the Cs could offer and what the rest of the league could do, that there was room for some wiggle.
Ultimately, the Cs agreed that shaving a couple mill a year wasn’t worth the impact on the relationship.
I was heartened listening to Jaylens thoughts about the team recomitting to D and to hang it's hat on D. Hopefully CJM will listen
Morey's quote about this is the key, "Landing the first star is the hardest part of the job." Regardless of whether or not Brown is a top five player he is a star. And teams without one will be lining up to add him if/when he goes on the market.
Why don't you think "Contract Year" motivation wouldn't apply to Jaylen though?
If Brown is still felt to be a top 20-25 guy by most teams, then sure. I would expect he is, I just think there is a chance he isn't in a year or two.
The plausible 10-20th percentile outcome "bad result" for a guy like Tatum (barring injury) are still being an All Star top 20 player. A similarly bad but plausible result for someone like Jaylen is quite a bit worse. Like out of the top 40.
I'm not saying I expect it or the Celtics have to give that a ton of weight in their decision making, but a contract that big does carry some downside risk for the non true top 10 superstar players.
You can't take one hideously bad trade made by one team and always assume other teams will make similarly hideously bad trades in the future.
I don't think this is a bad deal, I get why they did it, and I am looking forward to Jaylen being on the team this season. I hope they win it all and want to run it back again with the same team the following season.
If things don't go well, we will all see how much value Jaylen has on the open market in the next few years on that deal, and we can judge at that point.
Their team defense finished 3rd last season (111.5 DEF RTG). It felt like Smart, Grant & TL took a step back defensively last season (injury/surgery clearly slowed them down). Smart/Grant are gone, KP was added where he'll help TL with rim protection & White (their best defender last season) will have a bigger role this season.
If their defense is the same as last season, their situational offense should be better with KP (& more Hauser minutes). In regards to CJM, he now has his own coaching staff & the time to prepare for the season.
Danny, Zarren, Brad...these guys are really good at seizing opportunities. There always seem like a few NBA GMs/teams that have different mandates. If Brad could turn Brown into half of what Danny received in either deal last summer it would be a haul
https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2022/09/02/utah-jazz-land-historic-haul/
I know that's your thing, and it happens all of the time. That doesn't mean that everyone is wired that way. Some cats work all of the time.
FWIW, I think that Jaylen got lucky in that he was playing his best ball and pounding the stats when the vote was taken. I expect the same guy to show up at camp as always does, just like Jayson. Slightly better shape, some minor improvements of this or that. We're not talking about a guy who comes in heavy or poorly-conditioned like ever. I've never heard anyone question his effort (same with Tatum). Not every round hole has a round peg man.
Just because he’s a guy who’s worked hard every offseason to improve his game, started foundations and charitable programs and also his own business in 7uice. He doesn’t seem like the type to cash in and go on cruise control to me. I could certainly be wrong.
Man, this speaks to my core. During the playoffs whenever they'd run this stagnant ass half court offense of dribbling down court, make a pass or two followed by someone bricking a 3pt attempt I'd want to scream at the tv to just run run run! When they are in a fast break type offense they are unstoppable and it was just so f'ing frustrating to see them walk up and down chucking 3's instead.
Of course there is a chance. There is probably an equal chance he is a top 15 guy instead though. In a couple years we will be saying goodbye to Steph and Lebrion and Kawhi and others. And sure, there are the young guys who will jump into the top 20-25 conversation, but even if Jaylen's progress as a player stalls, it is highly unlikely that he gets worse over those years