Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million

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benhogan

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I think what you're hoping for if you see Jaylen as a major star is that his 4th season is Paul George's 3rd. Early career they actually look fairly similar (George is a bit better at everything except shooting 3s, but it's fairly minor variation in AST% and TRB%, and about 0.10 on FT), year 3 George exploded. Now I don't think Jaylen is going to be Paul George, but that's the type of player he could be a lesser version of. Good defender, capable but not exceptional passer, decent rebounder, good shooter, and an athletic presence going to the rim.

Edit- weird that you picked out PG as a good rebounder, he's pretty mediocre 10.5% for his career, Brown could definitely hit that, he was over 9 the only year he played more SF than SG.
good stuff C-D

Lots of solid discussion regarding Jaylen. Love the Ainge quote. and I'm believer in Jaylen improving from last season.

I really thought Danny & JB were taking this to RFA, especially with China revenue/salary cap issues, but I clearly got that wrong. At the end of the day, Jaylen makes a leap and the contract is a win or they now have huge ballast to make a big deal down the road. Win/win, I guess.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Love Jaylen, especially defensively, but I'd be a bit concerned about his (1) low career assist rate (which suggest he won't be anything close to a playmaking wing like Wade or Iguodala); (2) mediocre career rebound rate (which suggests he won't be close to Kawhi or PG on the glass); and (3) low career FT% (which tends to correlate well to 3FG% upside, and suggests he won't be close to Beal or Klay).
I agree that these are all weaknesses. But to provide a fair return on his salary, I don't think he needs to become great at those things. I think he needs to improve a bit at them and learn to play within himself and rely on his strengths. I think this is what Brad tries to get his players to do, and Jaylen seems like the type who will buy in. I think a significant part of his value will be defense (and ability to guard 4 positions).
As the official driver of the Jaylen Brown bandwagon bus, I agree with this and HRB's take completely. For large parts of the 2nd half last season, Jaylen was the best player on the floor for the C's. When he returned from his injury, he was fantastic, on both ends of the floor. And he did that while dealing with the shitshow that was going on with Kyrie/Brad, etc. This contract is going to be viewed as a steal by Christmas, IMO.
This feels a bit overly optimistic to me, but it is directionally correct. I think at the end of the day we will like the deal.
 

mcpickl

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I guess then I don't get how you can say that JB's most likely outcome is Ariza. If you are bearish, JB's better comp is going to be Wiggins because JB doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is going to sit in a corner and shoot jump shots at any point in the next six years. Ariza USG% got over 20% once in his career. That's almost assuredly not the player JB is going to be. And if JB is going to brick shots and turn the ball over, he's going to become negative value pretty quickly.

If JB is still in the league at 30, maybe he'll play like Ariza, but between now and then, other than the fact they both are plus defenders, I can't see JB ending up Ariza at all.
Because for the third time, everyone is getting way too horny about the name Trevor Ariza. I said the name Danny Green in that post as well. I mean, I said in the post I wasn't comparing them skillset wise.

I was talking about those types of guys as his value. A high level role player. I used the names Ariza and Green as examples of the value I'm talking about. Not that they are player for player comps.

The only time I compared Jaylen and Ariza in terms of their skills was when someone replied that Jaylen is already as good, or better, than Ariza ever was.

Edit: eff it, I give up. Keep going on about Ariza then everybody. JFC
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Because for the third time, everyone is getting way too horny about the name Trevor Ariza. I said the name Danny Green in that post as well. I mean, I said in the post I wasn't comparing them skillset wise.

I was talking about those types of guys as his value. A high level role player. I used the names Ariza and Green as examples of the value I'm talking about. Not that they are player for player comps.

The only time I compared Jaylen and Ariza in terms of their skills was when someone replied that Jaylen is already as good, or better, than Ariza ever was.
I will be surprised or even shocked if Jaylen's 19-20 season isn't miles better than Ariza's best season. He already has a larger role than Ariza has ever had as one of our primary scorers and shot creators.
 

NomarsFool

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It's interesting to me in all this how much the NBA values age. Personally, if you have two players, each with three years of experience in the league I'd think that a 23 year old player would be more valuable than the 25 year old player, but not by a huge amount. However, the NBA values that age difference ALOT.
 

benhogan

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I will be surprised or even shocked if Jaylen's 19-20 season isn't miles better than Ariza's best season. He already has a larger role than Ariza has ever had as one of our primary scorers and shot creators.
I believe his original point was he didn't view Jaylen as a top 3 player on a team. He views JB as a good role player. He threw out Ariza/Green as examples of good role players (but guys not worthy of near max deals).

Let's bury the Ariza rabbit hole since its getting twisted around and that wasn't mcpickl's main point.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I believe his original point was he didn't view Jaylen as a top 3 player on a team. He views JB as a good role player. He threw out Ariza/Green as examples of good role players (but guys not worthy of near max deals).

Let's bury the Ariza rabbit hole since its getting twisted around and that wasn't mcpickl's main point.
If MP wants us to ignore this line - "At Arizas peak, he's a better rebounder, passer, 3 pt shooter, free throw shooter. They're probably similar defensively" - I'm happy to.

My other point that is germane to the thread that during this next contract, JB (barring injury) is much more likely to either take the next step in value OR to be an albatross contract. JB is going to have the ball in his hands a lot - either he's going to do something good or something bad. But he's not going to sit in corner and hoist up catch-n-shoot 3s all game. Like Danny Green.
 

Rustjive

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It's interesting to me in all this how much the NBA values age. Personally, if you have two players, each with three years of experience in the league I'd think that a 23 year old player would be more valuable than the 25 year old player, but not by a huge amount. However, the NBA values that age difference ALOT.
I think most of the aging curve research out there has concluded that players peak ages 25-27, so could possibly explain the big difference between say, what Brogdon was paid in this same offseason vs. what Jaylen was paid. Removing the independent contexts of either player, the research would say you know what Brogdon's peak is and you're paying for that, while there's definitely potential priced into Jaylen's contract.
 

lovegtm

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It's interesting to me in all this how much the NBA values age. Personally, if you have two players, each with three years of experience in the league I'd think that a 23 year old player would be more valuable than the 25 year old player, but not by a huge amount. However, the NBA values that age difference ALOT.
If you go look at the Basketball References of a lot of good players and compare the age 22-23 seasons to the age 25-26 seasons, you'll see why. Even guys who were really good young tend to improve, and there are tons of examples of guys a tier below that making big leaps.
 

amarshal2

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I really like Brown as a guy to continuously improve. Even if last year was uneven, he’s improved a lot over time. He looked in preseason like he’s improved over the summer more than any returning Celtic. Smart, hard working, and supremely athletic. The leaps may be smaller but I bet he’s a lot better at 27 than 23. Add in the salary cap realities and the need for assets, and I like this deal.
 

benhogan

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If MP wants us to ignore this line - "At Arizas peak, he's a better rebounder, passer, 3 pt shooter, free throw shooter. They're probably similar defensively" - I'm happy to.

My other point that is germane to the thread that during this next contract, JB (barring injury) is much more likely to either take the next step in value OR to be an albatross contract. JB is going to have the ball in his hands a lot - either he's going to do something good or something bad. But he's not going to sit in corner and hoist up catch-n-shoot 3s all game. Like Danny Green.
Fair enough. Either way, the contract is good (JB improves) or moveable (doesn't leap) as long as China doesn't implode. So it's an asset. And he's secure, and JB's happiness is worth more than the optionality of waiting a year. We saw the toxicity around a team full of FAs, Brad was basically herding cats last season. Plus by signing that deal now we can move on it sooner if the team doesn't mesh.

In order to leap, Jaylen's 3 weaknesses, handle, ball movement, FT%, will need to improve. (using crude/basic metrics) If he can get his assists to 2.5/gm, AST/TO ratio to 1.5-1, FT% over 70% and 3p% over 38% he'll be very efficient. Those are all doable with his increased mpg and role this season. Add in his maturing size/strength, defensive prowess and he becomes part of a big 3 on a Championship contender IMO.
 
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Devizier

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I don’t know how much of an asset an undeveloped Brown is, but the opportunity cost of an unsigned Brown is too huge to be ignored.
 

mcpickl

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If MP wants us to ignore this line - "At Arizas peak, he's a better rebounder, passer, 3 pt shooter, free throw shooter. They're probably similar defensively" - I'm happy to.

My other point that is germane to the thread that during this next contract, JB (barring injury) is much more likely to either take the next step in value OR to be an albatross contract. JB is going to have the ball in his hands a lot - either he's going to do something good or something bad. But he's not going to sit in corner and hoist up catch-n-shoot 3s all game. Like Danny Green.
You don't have to ignore it if you don't want to, as I stand by it and believe it.

It just wasn't my original point, it was a response to a poster going down a different road in comparing Jaylen Brown right now to Trevor Ariza at his peak.

That wasn't my argument.
 

bakahump

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Isnt Jaylen that classic "good at alot of stuff but currently (and perhaps unlikely to become) not great at any one thing."

So how "good" do you have to be at everything to be a "Great" player.

If he becomes great at something, just one thing, he is a max player.
 

ggreene

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Given the contracts being offered in the NBA right now I don't think the bar is that high. 20M for Terry Rozier?
 

RetractableRoof

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Given the contracts being offered in the NBA right now I don't think the bar is that high. 20M for Terry Rozier?
This is kind of where I am... in the context of the NBA it just isn't outrageous. If anything it looks like Brown left a little bit on the table with the not likely to be earned incentives. On the other hand, just because everyone else is handing out funny money doesn't mean Ainge should as well - unless he has decided that he's in a position where he doesn't have a choice. Or that Danny needs to give him most of that money in order to have a shot at trading him should the need arise in a year or so.

I will say that worst case scenario (or maybe best case) if another team mismanages themselves and the Celtics can get a piece at center that is believed to be a difference maker the salary might be a positive for being an almost but not quite max going to the other team. Combined with another part/piece for salary matching and maybe something good (at a non wing position) comes this way.

In general, given how Ainge generally has shown he knows how to work the system and leverage it (gaining assets early on to help others work their cap, collecting trade assets to give himself a larger margin for error, pulling the trigger on Kyrie for those assets when it became available), I'm betting he has given this China thing some thought and how to function should it have a cap impact. In Danny we trust???
 

NomarsFool

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Unfortunate that he put up a stinker in his first game post-contract. I'm sure some of the talk show guys won't be able to sleep tonight they'll be so jazzed up.
 

Jimbodandy

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Unfortunate that he put up a stinker in his first game post-contract. I'm sure some of the talk show guys won't be able to sleep tonight they'll be so jazzed up.
Everyone put up a stinker tonight, except maybe TL. Kemba was worse, for example.

Maybe that'll distract the talk show guys from Brady leaving town gate.
 

NomarsFool

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I thought Hayward looked pretty good, Tatum was fairly good - although definitely below expectations. Walker definitely had a stinker as well.
 

Cellar-Door

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Jaylen mostly got burned by a tight whistle (though you could say he failed to adjust)

He had 8/7/0 shot 50% from the floor and from 3, only 1 TO in 21 minutes. not great, but with foul trouble not bad either
 

lovegtm

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This is why I always thought the "make him earn it in RFA" thing was dumb. If you're the team and have been around Jaylen non-stop in camp, you have more information than the rest of the league, and can use it to get a discount. If you can see that he's not at that level yet (presumably what happened with Smart and Rozier), then you make him earn it.

In a hypothetical world where the extension deadline is Nov 1 instead of Oct 21, Brown would have been able to show the league that he's clearly upped his game, and says "fuck you" to anything but a max. $107M guaranteed vs the $130M he'd be at if they had waited makes a big difference once Tatum gets paid.
 
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benhogan

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This is why I always thought the "make him earn it in RFA" thing was dumb. If you're the team and have been around Jaylen non-stop in camp, you have more information than the rest of the league, and can use it to get a discount. If you can see that he's not at that level yet (presumably what happened with Smart and Rozier), then you make him earn it.

In a hypothetical world where the extension deadline is Nov 1 instead of Oct 21, Brown would have been able to show the league that he's clearly upped his game, and says "fuck you" to anything but a max. $107M guaranteed vs the $130M he'd be at if they had waited makes a big difference once Tatum gets paid.
After seeing the size/strength, maturity on Team USA this Summer, Jaylen improvement/jump seemed fully happening. Plus the lack of other free agents in his draft class was talked about endlessly.

Danny's history, somewhat successful, of waiting to go to RFA and the China Syndrome were probably the 2 biggest drivers of hesitancy at the end.
 
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lovegtm

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We're seeing now why the Celtics were happy to get the discount. That 4-6M/year in savings will make a big difference wrt luxury tax, and Jaylen is a pretty obvious max after what he's shown in terms of skill leap this year and improved defensive versatility/strength.

The other big difference from last year is that he's not dependent on the 3 anymore. His handle and burst get him to the rim at will, so he's been really efficient despite some poor initial outside shooting.

If he keeps this up, he may end up as good as Trevor Ariza.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Averaging 4.8 FTA a game. His career average going into the year was 2.5.

He's also shooting 79.2% from the line. His career % going into the year was .658.

19/24, so incredibly small sample size but it's nice to see him getting to the line more and making the shots.
 

bsj

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Averaging 4.8 FTA a game. His career average going into the year was 2.5.

He's also shooting 79.2% from the line. His career % going into the year was .658.

19/24, so incredibly small sample size but it's nice to see him getting to the line more and making the shots.
He just looks better out there. Smarter. Making better decisions. Better more efficient offense. Letting the game come to him.
 

TripleOT

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When I watched Siakam in the playoffs and against the Cs this season, I though "Why isn't Jaylen putting things together for himself and getting his offense like that?" Well he did that in SA, getting to his spots and imposing his will on the defense. Hopefully he will keep it up. For the last two years, the Kyrie dominated offense didn't allow Brown to me more than a 4th or 5th option. With this free flowing, share the ball team this year, he can play to his strengths, getting to the rim, or into the paint for easy short shots. He should be a 20+ ppg scorer with GH on the shelf.
 

jmcc5400

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That's so funny, TripleOT, because I was watching Siakam last night and thinking Jaylen should be studying his game film. Jaylen's stronger i think and Siakam a bit quicker, but similar two way upsides (with Siakam closer to hitting that upside on a consistent basis)
 

lovegtm

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Hmmm, Siakam seems like a weird comp to me. His game is very “mini” Giannis (but with a shot). Jaylen offensively plays much more like a guard in the way handles and approaches getting to the rim. He’s much more in the Butler/DWade big guard mold (with the obligatory boring disclaimer about how much better those guys are/were).

Their similarity is more on the defensive end, although even there, Siakam is longer, while Jaylen matches up well ok quicker guards.
 

Reverend

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He just looks better out there. Smarter. Making better decisions. Better more efficient offense. Letting the game come to him.
Like, if you didn’t know what basketball is, you’d still know he is better.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hmmm, Siakam seems like a weird comp to me. His game is very “mini” Giannis (but with a shot). Jaylen offensively plays much more like a guard in the way handles and approaches getting to the rim. He’s much more in the Butler/DWade big guard mold (with the obligatory boring disclaimer about how much better those guys are/were).

Their similarity is more on the defensive end, although even there, Siakam is longer, while Jaylen matches up well ok quicker guards.
I don't think Siakam is really a good comp for anyone because he took the leap much later than normal. I always likened Jaylen Brown to a modern day Corey Maggette who plays D. Drive, and get to the line. Drive, and get to the line. Drive and get to the line. Jaylen's a better 3 point shooter but I think a lot of that is the era they played in.

I remember the original comparison was Jimmy Butler, another late bloomer. I didn't really care for that comparison either. Who would people prefer Jaylen Brown turn into? Siakam or Butler?
 

bowiac

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Averaging 4.8 FTA a game. His career average going into the year was 2.5.

He's also shooting 79.2% from the line. His career % going into the year was .658.

19/24, so incredibly small sample size but it's nice to see him getting to the line more and making the shots.
Will use this thread as an opportunity to mention my projections (now tentatively called DARKO), which currently project Jaylen to shoot 68.3% from the line (Season Long Projections tab). So a good-sized improvement over just a few games.
 

Deathofthebambino

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As the official driver of the Jaylen Brown bandwagon bus, I agree with this and HRB's take completely. For large parts of the 2nd half last season, Jaylen was the best player on the floor for the C's. When he returned from his injury, he was fantastic, on both ends of the floor. And he did that while dealing with the shitshow that was going on with Kyrie/Brad, etc. This contract is going to be viewed as a steal by Christmas, IMO.

I was wrong. It's already a steal.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not everybody really learns how to change speeds or read defenses or drastically improve their handle. When you do learn this, and have the combo of strength/explosion/athleticism of someone like Jaylen, this is what you get. He can read and react, get to his spots, and find the rim without the wild contortions it used to take for him to try to get shots up while avoiding contact. Now he's creating angles where the defender has no choice BUT to foul or allow an easy two.

An elite first step is the trump card in this league. He's always had it but it's an entirely different thing to harness it the way we're seeing. Really exciting to see him get better and better every year to the point that we're no longer dreaming on upside but are rather reimagining where his ceiling might be.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Not everybody really learns how to change speeds or read defenses or drastically improve their handle. When you do learn this, and have the combo of strength/explosion/athleticism of someone like Jaylen, this is what you get. He can read and react, get to his spots, and find the rim without the wild contortions it used to take for him to try to get shots up while avoiding contact. Now he's creating angles where the defender has no choice BUT to foul or allow an easy two.

An elite first step is the trump card in this league. He's always had it but it's an entirely different thing to harness it the way we're seeing. Really exciting to see him get better and better every year to the point that we're no longer dreaming on upside but are rather reimagining where his ceiling might be.
One reason I've always been bullish on JB is because I can't think of anyone in the Association who has had the physical gifts that JB has plus his work ethic that hasn't become a star (barring injury). I don't think a lot of "experts" take into account how hard he works when trying to evaluate him.
 

SteveF

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Brown's FG% on drives is 59%. He was at 49% last year. (Hayward was at 51% last year and is at 63% this year.)

His ability to finish at the rim is dramatically improved thus far. Granted it's a small sample size, but the eye test tells me there's been a real change in skill level. He's going to need to be able to make free throws though. He's probably never going to be an 80% FT shooter, but ideally he should be in the 75% range because the way he plays should result in him getting to the line.
 

lexrageorge

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Brown's FG% on drives is 59%. He was at 49% last year. (Hayward was at 51% last year and is at 63% this year.)

His ability to finish at the rim is dramatically improved thus far. Granted it's a small sample size, but the eye test tells me there's been a real change in skill level. He's going to need to be able to make free throws though. He's probably never going to be an 80% FT shooter, but ideally he should be in the 75% range because the way he plays should result in him getting to the line.
The bolded is correct, as he is currently a 79.2% free throw shooter on this young season.
 

bowiac

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What do the Bayesian say about the likelihood hes a 68% shooter given his 24 free throw sample?
This is complicated, and while my analysis uses a Bayesian framework (it dynamically updates its prior understanding of how good a player is based on new information coming in, and the strength of prior opinions), it's not fully Bayesian insofar as I don't generate a full range of outcomes, but rather just a mean outcome.

In my experience, DARKO gives projections very similar to the mean you'd find if you modeled it with Stan or something, but I haven't checked here.
 

lovegtm

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Draft day: well, actually, the numbers say it should be Bender
Year 1: Bust, can barely get on the floor.
Year 2: yeah, he was good, but that was just the NBA Playoffs, probably a fluke. Let's see how he does in November games against Phoenix.
Year 3: Fluke! (ignore hand injury and last 4 months of the season)
Year 4: Trevor. Ariza.
 

benhogan

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When Kyrie took shots at the "young players" last season, it always felt directed at Jaylen Brown. Tatum/Kyrie had that Duke connection and Kobe kind of mentored Tatum/Kyrie

JB seems like the biggest beneficiary (other than Kemba) of Irving's exit.
 

lovegtm

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When Kyrie took shots at the "young players" last season, it always felt directed at Jaylen Brown. Tatum/Kyrie had that Duke connection and Kobe kind of mentored Tatum/Kyrie

JB seems like the biggest beneficiary (other than Kemba) of Irving's exit.
Yeah, essentially they traded Kyrie for Kemba and an elite wing.
 

Eddie Jurak

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When Kyrie took shots at the "young players" last season, it always felt directed at Jaylen Brown. Tatum/Kyrie had that Duke connection and Kobe kind of mentored Tatum/Kyrie

JB seems like the biggest beneficiary (other than Kemba) of Irving's exit.
Yes, but... at the end of the day, Kyrie still cared most about Kyrie. For example, going nuclear when Hayward passed to Tatum for a buzzer beater in Orlando.
 

lovegtm

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Yes, but... at the end of the day, Kyrie still cared most about Kyrie. For example, going nuclear when Hayward passed to Tatum for a buzzer beater in Orlando.
"Kyrie may have been a huge dick who retarded Jaylen's development, but let's be fair, he also found other ways to be shitty!"
 

bakahump

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One bad game...and I am just busting Tatum Balls...

But can you imagine if Brown ends up being the crown Jewel of the Nets Heist?

Not sure we saw that coming.
 
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