It's much much easier to replace a guy in MLB than the NBA, if Brown walked in a year it's not like the Cs could have just turned around and offered the 25m he wouldn't have been getting to someone from another team instead.
Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million
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In today's NBA, slightly overpaying on a rookie-contract extension isn't as big of a deal as you are making it out to be, I don't think. Plus, if you assume Jaylen wasn't going to agree to an extension for anything lower than this, what are the alternatives? If Jaylen makes a leap this year, the Cs would end up paying more than this deal to keep him. If Jaylen doesn't make a leap - ok, you can let him walk, but then how do you replace him? The Cs are already about ~10m over the cap so they wouldn't be able to replace that production without sacrificing elsewhere by trading to shed salary or cutting guys.
With this deal, they get to keep Jaylen and see how he progresses. If, ultimately, they need to dump his salary to free up space for a max free agent or whatever down the road, it's highly likely they'll be able to do that given that even last year's Jaylen Brown is a very useful piece for a lot of teams and his salary won't be prohibitive.
Edit: or what scottyno said.
Reading between the lines of things said by Celtics broadcasters, beat writers, Bob Ryan, Stevens, and Ainge they are pretty much saying nearly everything last year can be laid at Kyrie's feet. They clearly think Jaylen is deserving (and the contract is still tradeable) and he seems like a good dude. Happy for this.
Is it though? I don't know. Brad has shown no inclination to play the better players beyond 32mpg and there are still 3 other guys starting with him that want shots. Two of them playing for upcoming contracts. If he reverts back to his 14.5/5/1.6 season getting 31mpg is that worth 28M? Man, these NBA contracts are amazing.
Yup. His defense makes him a pretty high floor player. Injuries aside, this deal isn’t going belly up. The upside still is TBD but there is some.
As a fan I love that this keeps Jaylen here for the forseeable future. Understand that it could be traded but I love watching him play and I want to see that in Green.
I mean Siakam who is 3 years older just got maxed off a single 16.9/6.9/3.1 season playing 32 minutes a game. There is more to paying a guy than raw counting stats. Also, if he reverted he'd miss the incentives and make like 25/26
That is a lot of money for Jaylen Brown. I think he's a good player/prospect, but think his most likely outcome is as a high level role player like a Trevor Ariza or Danny Green.(not same skillset but guys that you'd love to have as your 5th best player, but not as a top 3 player)
The NBA cap system is so weird, that you probably have to pay it since I think he gets offered that or more as an RFA next year where your options are pay him, or lose him for nothing and probably not have the cap space to replace him.
This is going to put a big spotlight on his weaknesses though since fans are going to change their perception of him from exciting prospect, to a dude making 26M a year that has to produce every night.
I'd guess he ends up taking a ton of heat from the fans/media this year.
It's weird to me who does/doesn't get paid. I don't think Jaylen is as good a player as Marcus Smart, I don't believe he'll ever be as good a player as Marcus Smart, and Smart had to wait an extra year to get half of what Jaylen got.
The NBA cap system is so weird, that you probably have to pay it since I think he gets offered that or more as an RFA next year where your options are pay him, or lose him for nothing and probably not have the cap space to replace him.
This is going to put a big spotlight on his weaknesses though since fans are going to change their perception of him from exciting prospect, to a dude making 26M a year that has to produce every night.
I'd guess he ends up taking a ton of heat from the fans/media this year.
It's weird to me who does/doesn't get paid. I don't think Jaylen is as good a player as Marcus Smart, I don't believe he'll ever be as good a player as Marcus Smart, and Smart had to wait an extra year to get half of what Jaylen got.
I do think it is true that the deal might cause fans to view him differently and that is something he'll have to negotiate.
I think he's already as good if not better than Ariza ever was, so I dn't htink that's a great comp. I think Jaylen's next 5 years you're looking at a Danilo Gallinari type of value, with upside for more given his age.
Strongly disagree.
At Arizas peak, he's a better rebounder, passer, 3 pt shooter, free throw shooter. They're probably similar defensively.
Jaylen has some work to do to be better than peak Ariza, maybe he gets there but I definitely don't think he's there now.
All fair points.
I would simply add that when Ariza came into the league and for the first few seasons of his career, he bounced around because teams knew he had potential but they didn't know how to utilize it. Part of it was organizational dysfunction (Knicks and Magic) and the other part of it was that Ariza's core skillset/physical features weren't yet in vogue.
I imagine that if Ariza were to come into the league over the past few years instead of ~15 years ago, he would have been kept by whomever drafted him and his skills would have developed earlier on. And I strongly suspect that if those two things were true, he would get the max once he was eligible.
I agree that Brown is not near peak Ariza but he has some of the elements to get there. Regardless, athletic two way wings (and that may be charitable to Brown on both ends by a bit) get paid.
Put differently, I suspect the Celtics would either struggle to replace or have to pay up to replicate Brown's overall production, warts and all.
I don't know how it makes sense to compare JB to a 29-year-old (ish) player - I assume you think Ariza's peak was somewhere around the year he spent with the 'Zards as sidekick to Wall and Beal (and possibly Porter) and where he shot .407 from 3P land (note that he never shot over .375 again in his career).
Trevor Ariza as far as I remember was never the best player or the second best or probably the third best player on any team he played on. Not to say that he was a bad player - in fact, he was a superlative 3&D player before people understood how valuable 3&D players are.
But since people now understand that 3&D players are valuable, that means guys like Otto Porter get max'd.
JB at his floor will be a 3&D player I think. But JB has already been the second best player (maybe best) on a team that has gone to the EC finals. He is a superlative athlete even for NBA standards. If his handle and ability to finish with his left-hand has improved - he has shown glimpses of that this preseason - I dare say that during the next four years, he is going to be a waaaay better basketball player than Trevor Ariza. And that's even with Trevor Ariza being a really valuable basketball player.
And even if JB doesn't get any better, as many other people said, his contract is tradable since some GM is going to fall in love with his athletic ability.
I think it's a fair deal for both sides.
If Ariza put up his age 28 season numbers as a 22 year old, he likely would have been viwed as much more than a solid 3 and D guy and would have been paid accordingly.
I dont think mcpickl was saying that you can compare soon-to-be 23 year old Brown with a player in his late twenties. I think he was saying that Brown still has a way to go before approaching what Ariza did at his peak. And if that is the case, the poster is not wrong.
I didn't compare Brown to a 29 year old Ariza. I said I think Browns most likely outcome to me is as an Ariza level player. That's when he's fully developed. I responded to someone who thinks Brown is at that level or better right now. I'm not even focused on Brown vs Ariza. I'm just saying I think Brown ends up that level of player.
I agree that Trevor Ariza as far as I remember was never the best player or the second best or probably the third best player on any team he played on. And I'm not positive Jaylen Brown will be either.
This^
Which Trevor Ariza are you referring to? Jaylen's numbers 2 years ago as a 21 y/o are comparable with Ariza's breakout and career year season as a 24 y/o and he plateaued from there, so you can make that comparison. If Brown makes any sort of significant progress over the next 2 years he'll be a better player than Ariza ever was.
Young players generally don't metric well likely due to inexperience and lack of overall strength causing holes in their games which limit their overall effectiveness. The cool thing about Jaylen's contract is that his previous numbers/talent as a young player aren't static and his has the tools, both physical and mental, to continue to improve as he has each year since leaving Cal. I was more impressed with the growth he showed and how he handled last seasons debacle more than I did his sophomore year leap. I expect a major leap from Jaylen this year now that this is his team along with Tatum's. It wouldn't surprise me for Jaylen to be fighting for a final All-Star slot that's how much I feel he is going to thrive this season.
The other thing people don't take into account is that we aren't paying for his ages 20-23 when he was just learning the intricacies of the NBA game......we are paying for his ages 24-27 which with his continual improvement, along with the athleticism to reap that improvement, is market value and a no-brainer decision for Ainge. We aren't going to be under the cap anytime in the foreseeable future so barring a catastrophic injury I don't see where the upside is in not locking up Jaylen right now. The same goes for Tatum next year.
I don't understand how Ariza's name could even come up when discussing Jaylen. At age 22, Jaylen was so impressive that he was invited to play for Team USA while at the same age Trevor was so impressive that he could win rotation minutes and was traded to LA for Brian Cook and Mo Evans. He later found a niche with the Rockets as a pure 3-and-D guy with a limited offensive game. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't expect to see major growth from Jaylen now that he's physically maturing to match his athleticism. It appears he has the work ethic to improve his shooting which is the only thing holding him back from being a future All-Star imo.
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I would say that yes, I probably slightly exaggerated in that Ariza's age 28 season is better than anything Brown has done. I would also say, that the rest of Ariza's career seasons are probably all worse than Jaylen's age 21 season, especially when one considers Usage. Ariza was bar that one outlier, never really the type of player Brown is, he was a strictly 3 and D guy, who wasn't that efficient. Brown's ceiling is much higher than Ariza because he has entire elements to his offensive game in terms of driving that Ariza never had, and he's as good as Ariza at shooting 3s already. His Fts are worse, and he's slightly worse in rebounding and AST% than Ariza's peak, but the difference in potential for high usage is more than enough to offset that to me. Ariza is probably a reasonable floor for Brown, his most likely outcome is certainly not that he won't improve at all moving into his mid-20s, which is what would have to happen for him to have a career like Ariza.
I guess then I don't get how you can say that JB's most likely outcome is Ariza. If you are bearish, JB's better comp is going to be Wiggins because JB doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is going to sit in a corner and shoot jump shots at any point in the next six years. Ariza USG% got over 20% once in his career. That's almost assuredly not the player JB is going to be. And if JB is going to brick shots and turn the ball over, he's going to become negative value pretty quickly.
If JB is still in the league at 30, maybe he'll play like Ariza, but between now and then, other than the fact they both are plus defenders, I can't see JB ending up Ariza at all.
This is more a comment on the nature of NBA basketball than it is on Jaylen or Marcus. It's nearly impossible to be worth max money as a sub 6-5 guy with a limited offensive game, because you can't impact the defensive game like Gobert can, even as a freakishly strong and smart guy (like Smart).
Don't get me wrong...Marcus is a great value contract. The Celtics got lucky that his shooting took until his 5th rather than 4th year to develop. But that makes him probably about a $20M player now.
Buddy Hield got 4/94. That compares to 4/107 for Jaylen (counting the easy incentives but not the stretch ones on both deals).
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27895854/sources-buddy-hield-kings-4-year-94m-deal
Hield is probably the better player of the two right now, but I’d expect Jaylen to earn more on the open market due to his upside.
I think we’ll see a couple teams get burned on these early extensions of 3-year vets, such that teams will stop handing out these huge deals so freely to non-stars, but I think the worst you can say for Danny is he’s participating in what may be an overheated market.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27895854/sources-buddy-hield-kings-4-year-94m-deal
Hield is probably the better player of the two right now, but I’d expect Jaylen to earn more on the open market due to his upside.
I think we’ll see a couple teams get burned on these early extensions of 3-year vets, such that teams will stop handing out these huge deals so freely to non-stars, but I think the worst you can say for Danny is he’s participating in what may be an overheated market.
I'm not a big Jaylen guy so I'm not thrilled with the deal. He's too inconsistent and disappears for long stretches. I'm guessing Danny didn't see anyone that would be marketedly better to use those funds on and sees it as a tradeable contract. He's going to have expectations now, and fans are going to get on him more when his play is subpar. We'll see how he responds .
Is the "fans are going to get on him now" thing a current talking point on 98.5? That keeps coming up in this forum.
Yes, that hot take has Felger & Mazz written all over it.
The talk radio mediots were all over Average Al and his contract. But I don't recall fans getting on him during games. Fans did periodically get on last year's toxic team from time to time, but that had little do with player salaries.
Jaylen struggled at the beginning of last season, probably a result of incorporating Hayward into the mix and because he was injured early in the season, including a hand injury. His October/November numbers drag him down, I don't think they're representative of his ability. Starting when he returned to action on 12/8/18 last season after he adjusted to a bench role, he shot .378 from 3. If we throw out his October/November 2018 numbers, I believe he's 197/507 since the start of the 2017 season, a .388 point shooter. Shooting almost 39% from three puts him in the upper third of three point shooters in the league. He's not a sniper, but Jaylen has established himself as very good NBA shooter and even with his numbers from last season pulling him down, his career 3P% is better than Ariza's.
NBA is not MLB. Not overpaying for your own players is how you end up with...no good players.
In defense of the Red Sox, their team structure is pretty similar to the Astros - which are regarded as the team to emulate. The key difference is that the Sox' top pitchers didn't perform this year, and the Astros' did.
Given this contract I would expect Tatum to get even more next year so Danny is going to roll with Walker/Brown/Tatum and maybe Hayward depending on the implications of China and the luxury tax. Considering how entertaining they were to watch in preseason it sounds good but whether that will translate to the regular season IDK.
I'm of the opinion that someone was going to give Brown a max offer sheet next offseason, and the Celtics would have had to either match or lose him for nothing. Instead, they save about $6M/year off the max price and get some certainty a year sooner. I think it's a win, even if it's not a hometown discount.
I also think Brown is very tradeable on that contract. In the NBA, it's not giving out big money to non-stars that kills your cap sheet, it's signing guys to contracts that no team will take without a sweetener attached (see John Wall and a few other super-max guys).
I also think Brown is very tradeable on that contract. In the NBA, it's not giving out big money to non-stars that kills your cap sheet, it's signing guys to contracts that no team will take without a sweetener attached (see John Wall and a few other super-max guys).
I think the Celts are banking on the return of the JB that dominated in the 2018 playoff (when Kyrie wasn’t around). That guy put up numbers that deserve this contract.
Tatum is almost certainly getting the max, and everyone has known that for some time, Brown's deal didn't impact that.
I could be doing this wrong, but as far as I can tell they had $117m committed for next season even if Brown disappeared (though Hayward opting out may change this, but probably not in a good way). So it's not like they could have spent that 29m on someone else, since they'd be over the cap anyway-- it's Brown or nothing. In fact, if you'd rather have "some other 29m player", the only way to do that is to give Brown this contract so you can trade for one. Seems like a no brainer.
This is a good point—it's not the 2nd contracts that kill you but the 3rd, as guys approach 30 and only a select few are actually still in their prime.
Yeah, the Celtics’ clearest path to a star in Brown’s salary slot is Brown himself, and the 2nd clearest is packaging that salary slot with assets to get a star.
This becomes really important if Brown doesn’t make a big leap, but one of the low-salaried rookies becomes awesome, or the Memphis pick looks set to convey top-5 (for example).
I don’t think it’s a secret that I’m high on Brown, but it’s also important to keep good paths open when you’re wrong.
It seems to me is that the Celtics' path to a championship-- or at least to contending in multiple years-- is for Brown and Tatum to develop, just as Curry and Thompson did for the Warriors. I'm not saying that either guy will be as good as Thompson, but close is probably good enough. So a few extra million a year is not a huge price to pay to keep Brown happy. And continuity matters, which is why I think some of the teams that look great on paper after massive offseason player movement will underperform.
I like to think that when these kids get paid they drive to the bank, show the lender their contract and take out the largest loan any of us can ever imagine to build a mansion.
Also, Jaylen is now like a first round pick, a somewhat known commodity and less attractive once it is made. But now they get to put in the work and see if they can live up to their potential. Jaylen's pay day obviously has higher consequences either way.
Also, Jaylen is now like a first round pick, a somewhat known commodity and less attractive once it is made. But now they get to put in the work and see if they can live up to their potential. Jaylen's pay day obviously has higher consequences either way.
Love Jaylen, especially defensively, but I'd be a bit concerned about his (1) low career assist rate (which suggest he won't be anything close to a playmaking wing like Wade or Iguodala); (2) mediocre career rebound rate (which suggests he won't be close to Kawhi or PG on the glass); and (3) low career FT% (which tends to correlate well to 3FG% upside, and suggests he won't be close to Beal or Klay).
Rebounding tends to be the most immutable skill among developing players, so I wouldn't expect any huge breakthroughs on that front. He's still young enough where you might expect improvement as a passer and shooter — but then in neither case are his three-year trendlines particularly promising.
This season should tell a lot about how much improvement to expect from him going forward. By age 24, most players are basically what they are. Cautiously rooting for a breakout season in terms of both shooting and playmaking.
Rebounding tends to be the most immutable skill among developing players, so I wouldn't expect any huge breakthroughs on that front. He's still young enough where you might expect improvement as a passer and shooter — but then in neither case are his three-year trendlines particularly promising.
This season should tell a lot about how much improvement to expect from him going forward. By age 24, most players are basically what they are. Cautiously rooting for a breakout season in terms of both shooting and playmaking.
As the official driver of the Jaylen Brown bandwagon bus, I agree with this and HRB's take completely. For large parts of the 2nd half last season, Jaylen was the best player on the floor for the C's. When he returned from his injury, he was fantastic, on both ends of the floor. And he did that while dealing with the shitshow that was going on with Kyrie/Brad, etc. This contract is going to be viewed as a steal by Christmas, IMO.
“Jaylen has made tremendous strides over the last three years and has become a fantastic player for us on both ends of the court,” Celtics president of operations Danny Ainge said, per the team release. “He’s a great person and hard worker who, at 22 years old, can score and defend against the best players in the NBA. Jaylen is a true professional who did a great job accepting his role last season, and he is a major part of our championship goals.”
https://nesn.com/2019/10/danny-ainge-lauds-jaylen-brown-as-true-professional-following-extension/
This is the money quote, and a subtle Kyrie dig, from Ainge for me. Jaylen is getting paid right now partly for maintaining professionalism in that dumpster fire of a locker room last year as a 22 year old. He made arguably the biggest individual sacrifice and still got basically bullied by Morris, Kyrie, and even Smart at times and handled it extremely well.
https://nesn.com/2019/10/danny-ainge-lauds-jaylen-brown-as-true-professional-following-extension/
This is the money quote, and a subtle Kyrie dig, from Ainge for me. Jaylen is getting paid right now partly for maintaining professionalism in that dumpster fire of a locker room last year as a 22 year old. He made arguably the biggest individual sacrifice and still got basically bullied by Morris, Kyrie, and even Smart at times and handled it extremely well.
I hereby volunteer to ride shotgun in that bandwagon. Assuming he continues to progress and continues to be one of the more likable guys in the league, I love this deal. His "sports are a mechanism of control" interview from a few years back sold me on him forever in terms of his being a guy that gets it. Not saying that is rational on my part.
I think what you're hoping for if you see Jaylen as a major star is that his 4th season is Paul George's 3rd. Early career they actually look fairly similar (George is a bit better at everything except shooting 3s, but it's fairly minor variation in AST% and TRB%, and about 0.10 on FT), year 3 George exploded. Now I don't think Jaylen is going to be Paul George, but that's the type of player he could be a lesser version of. Good defender, capable but not exceptional passer, decent rebounder, good shooter, and an athletic presence going to the rim.
Edit- weird that you picked out PG as a good rebounder, he's pretty mediocre 10.5% for his career, Brown could definitely hit that, he was over 9 the only year he played more SF than SG.
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