Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

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I respect greatness, but the Chiefs and Mahomes are on a Brady-level of hatred for me now. I had to watch that for 20 years, now this weirdo is making my Sundays miserable. Sour grapes, I know.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Shanahan cited analytics as the reason he had the 49ers receive the ball to begin overtime. He figured the team that got the opening kickoff of the session might get a second possession.

“We wanted the ball third,” he said. “If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones who had the chance to go win (the game).”
How often do OT games "match" the first two possessions in points? I am totally guessing based on my viewing experience, and admittedly there are no TD-TD data points in history ,but... 30%?

And here I thought every team would have concluded deferring
 

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How often do OT games "match" the first two possessions in points? I am totally guessing based on my viewing experience, and admittedly there are no TD-TD data points in history ,but... 30%?

And here I thought every team would have concluded deferring
There couldn't have been, given this is the first game played with the new rules where a OT touchdown doesn't end the game*. Only since 2012's regular did you have the opportunity to match possessions in the regular season OT. This is still the regular season rule. And in 2010 and 2011, the current system was only a postseason rule. Under the 2010-11 rule, two playoff OT games happened: 1 matched drives (punts; 2011-12 NFCCG), 1 didn't (Tebow to beat the Steelers).

From 2012-present under the now-current OT rule, not including Sunday, 195 OT games exist, with exactly 500 OT drives...can't quite come up with a way to code these to find games that had 3+ plus drives therein, since to have a 3rd, you'd have to have a match. I'm close though on this. Might figure a more direct way. I know at least 41 of them have only had one possession though, but that's only a preliminary step to answering this rate.

Honestly, Shanny's thinking reminds me of another championship that hit OT, and in fact 2OT--where that team won. That would be the 1962 AFL Championship Game, won by the Chiefs before they relocated, the Dallas Texans. Now, granted, Abner Haynes didn't mean this when he said 'We'll kick to the clock.' which gave them no choice of possession or kicking direction because he led with 'we'll kick' above all else.

*I genuinely knew the rules about carryover OTs and two-minute warnings (only even numbers OTs!), plus a third coin toss in 5OT, and theoretically every new 5th period of play (Q1, OT1, OT5, etc.). All because Belichick taught me with the line of thinking that you learn all the rules to exploit them. But it's a bad look for the league and television partners when CBS is scrambling for an explanation and unsure. The rule is also dumb to Shanny's benefit in thinking, it extends matching with the possibility of a touchdown for only one possession. Scoring a touchdown on your second possession in OT is always a win. This game easily could've gone to shit in ripping the new rule by media that 'both teams didn't possess the ball twice/equally in OTs!' with a KC FG and subsequent SF TD.
 

jk333

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This game easily could've gone to shit in ripping the new rule by media that 'both teams didn't possess the ball twice/equally in OTs!' with a KC FG and subsequent SF TD.
Or even SF FG, right? People would have lost it if the 49ers won it with only 2 FGs and it would have been spectacular.
 

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Or even SF FG, right? People would have lost it and it would have been spectacular.
Yes, and yes. Oh my god the potential melt.

Rule 16, Article 4, section c for anyone curious: ...(I)f the score is tied after each team has had its opportunity to possess the ball, the team next scoring by any method shall be the winner.
 

tims4wins

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Seems like an inevitability that a game will end like that, sooner or later. And god forbid it is Mahomes on the losing side.
 

lexrageorge

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Not sure possessing the ball was such a big mistake on the 49'ers part.

Romo noted that SF defense was on the field in the final drive of the 4th quarter and looked gassed. So getting the defense some rest was probably a consideration. The 49'ers offense actually did their part there with a drive that exceeded 7 minutes. The 49'ers offense probably should have scored a TD in that drive, although credit to Chris Jones for making a key hit on Purdy forcing the 4th down.

And, yes, a 3rd possession would make the game sudden death, and probably is a consideration in a probability simulation of determining the relative advantage of taking the first possession.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Watching the end of the game made me think about all the times the opposing team would see Tom get a chance at the end and just feel the inevitability of it. Watching the Niners sideline you could see it. “ Hes really just going to pull it off isn’t he.” Mahomes is that kind of player. Frustrating to see but hard not to respect from the other perspective.
 

Jungleland

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If you take the ball first, you dictate what the other team needs to do for better or worse, and you have a very easy path to a win if you see the ball a second time. If you take the ball second, you know exactly what you need to win, which means you have the benefit of un second guessable 4 down territory the whole time if needed, and even if the first team scored, you also should have the first true sudden death opportunity in the likely event they did not go for two.

My gut feeling says that the right choice in the current system comes down to the quality of offenses. If your offense is worse, I think you almost certainly want the ball second. It’s basically the overtime equivalent of the Chiefs last regulation possession: it’s a huge win for you, as the team with the weaker quarterback, if your opponent kicks a field goal and/or if they are incentivized to consider kicking or punting on 4th down in general.

I think Chiefs taking the ball first would have been extremely defensible.

Statistically, I wonder if getting the ball first and being incredibly aggressive on 4th down and extra point isn’t the actual best play, but it’s reasonable to think no team is going to want to Staley themselves in OT in the super bowl.
 
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Remagellan

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Not sure possessing the ball was such a big mistake on the 49'ers part.

Romo noted that SF defense was on the field in the final drive of the 4th quarter and looked gassed. So getting the defense some rest was probably a consideration. The 49'ers offense actually did their part there with a drive that exceeded 7 minutes. The 49'ers offense probably should have scored a TD in that drive, although credit to Chris Jones for making a key hit on Purdy forcing the 4th down.

And, yes, a 3rd possession would make the game sudden death, and probably is a consideration in a probability simulation of determining the relative advantage of taking the first possession.

On Good Morning Football, they said some of the Niners were confused about the playoff OT rules, as was Mecole Hardman, who confessed that after he scored the TD in OT he didn't realize that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl until Patrick Mahomes screamed at him that they just won.


Put me on Team Defer---the advantages of knowing what you need to win, knowing you should use four downs, and the possibility of either going for two if the other team scored a TD and kicked the PAT, or kicking the PAT if the other team scored a TD but failed in a two-point try best the potential of getting an extra possession if both teams have to settle for FGs.
 

BigSoxFan

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My Niners fan friends are just absolutely sick right now and I don’t blame them. That game was there for the taking. Getting nothing after the INT starting at KC’s 44 and then following that up later with the McCloud play was just an excruciating series of events.
 

IdiotKicker

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The outcome is as simple as the Chiefs made the plays they needed when they needed them, and the Niners were generally better most of the game but couldn't make the handful of plays they needed to win. Fantastic game to watch though, feels like we've had some really good ones the last few years.
 

Justthetippett

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On Good Morning Football, they said some of the Niners were confused about the playoff OT rules, as was Mecole Hardman, who confessed that after he scored the TD in OT he didn't realize that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl until Patrick Mahomes screamed at him that they just won.


Put me on Team Defer---the advantages of knowing what you need to win, knowing you should use four downs, and the possibility of either going for two if the other team scored a TD and kicked the PAT, or kicking the PAT if the other team scored a TD but failed in a two-point try best the potential of getting an extra possession if both teams have to settle for FGs.
Deferring will become the default there I think but 9ers D were gassed (which I think Romo mentioned) and that was a major consideration. The D calls are what will give them nightmares. It seemed they either did that five safeties look or blitzed and neither were good options.

I also don't like the format. It creates interesting strategic decisions but it's removed from how football would typically be played (just like the old system). I think just do 15 minutes of time. If the game is not settled, 15 more and so on.
 

johnmd20

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You could make an argument the Chiefs haven’t beaten any great teams during this run. Certainly no one the caliber of the 01 Rams or 14 Seahawks.
This is some serious copium.

And it's not correct. What version of the NFL is being played in your multi verse?

The Chiefs literally had the hardest run through the playoffs by DVOA in the history of the NFL.
 

johnmd20

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And while I was rooting for the Niners and that was a tough loss, I am also very happy the Chiefs let Tyreek Hill go and then immediately won two straight Super Bowls. Overrated kid abuser.
 

BaseballJones

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I do wonder if the Lions would have won. I think the 49ers would have beaten the Ravens.

Reid's stock continues to rise for me, begrudingly.
Why begrudgingly? What’s not to like about Reid? I think he’s great. Easy guy to root for except that he’s coaching the Chiefs.
 

BaseballJones

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This is some serious copium.

And it's not correct. What version of the NFL is being played in your multi verse?

The Chiefs literally had the hardest run through the playoffs by DVOA in the history of the NFL.
Yeah I thought what they did this year was absolutely incredible. After they beat Miami I said here in BBTL that if they go on to bret Buffalo and Baltimore on the road, then knock off SF (I assumed they would win The NFC) that it would be one hell of a run. And it was. Nothing was easy for them and they pulled it off. Incredible.
 

cshea

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Deferring will become the default there I think but 9ers D were gassed (which I think Romo mentioned) and that was a major consideration. The D calls are what will give them nightmares. It seemed they either did that five safeties look or blitzed and neither were good options.

I also don't like the format. It creates interesting strategic decisions but it's removed from how football would typically be played (just like the old system). I think just do 15 minutes of time. If the game is not settled, 15 more and so on.
Even if the D is gassed they can give up a touchdown and still have a chance to match and possibly win the game with a 2-point conversion. Choosing based of a not-guranteed 3rd possession seems unwise to me.
 

BaseballJones

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I know it felt like SF outplayed KC overall but KC had more first downs and outgained SF 455-382. They also had a better yards per play at 5.8 vs 5.4.

So while SF probably should have put this game away, the fact is, KC outplayed them overall. Didn’t feel like it, but it’s true.

That third Q by SF though. One of the worst coaching jobs I’ve ever seen.
 

Remagellan

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To me, the comp for this Chiefs season is the Niners' 1988 season when they went 10-6 and edged out Rams (10-6) and Saints (10-6) for the NFC West, and then trucked the Vikings 34-9 and Bears 28-3 in the playoffs before slipping by the Bengals in SB XXIII 20-16 in Bill Walsh's last year.

Those Niners went 14-2 the following season and stomped the Vikings (41-13), Rams (30-3), and the Broncos (55-10) to win their fourth Super Bowl. Let's hope for the league's sake that's not some sort of predictor of the Chiefs' fortunes for next season.
 

BaseballJones

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I expect KC to be terrific next year. Kelce has one more great year in him, the young receivers are just getting better, they’ll probably add a good one in the draft, and the D is great and young. But still… a lot has to go right to win it all. But to me they’re absolutely the clear favorite going into next year.
 

AlNipper49

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I don’t understand how Jones didn’t win MVP. That guy was personally responsible for it even being kind of a game that they could have been competitive in. A complete fucking wrecking ball.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I know it felt like SF outplayed KC overall but KC had more first downs and outgained SF 455-382. They also had a better yards per play at 5.8 vs 5.4.

So while SF probably should have put this game away, the fact is, KC outplayed them overall. Didn’t feel like it, but it’s true.

That third Q by SF though. One of the worst coaching jobs I’ve ever seen.
Shanahan has now called plays in 3 Super Bowls (one as OC and 2 as HC) and he's blown 10+ point leads in the second half in all 3 of them.

I wouldn't trust this fucking guy to run a Dairy Queen, never mind a Super Bowl. One of history's greatest choke artists.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Even if the D is gassed they can give up a touchdown and still have a chance to match and possibly win the game with a 2-point conversion. Choosing based of a not-guranteed 3rd possession seems unwise to me.
It's coming out today that the 49ers DID NOT KNOW THE NEW OT RULES FOR THE POSTSEASON.

Meanwhile, KC had been talking about strategy for such a situation since training camp. If KC won the toss, they were going to defer and if SF scored a TD then KC would go for 2 once they scored their own TD.

It's completely unacceptable for Shanahan to have been that unprepared.
 

Van Everyman

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You could make an argument the Chiefs haven’t beaten any great teams during this run. Certainly no one the caliber of the 01 Rams or 14 Seahawks.
My 16 y/o daughter put it a little differently – she rage texted me for about 15 minutes after she went upstairs when the game ended about what bothers her about the Mahomes Chiefs’ run:
78001
And while I was rooting for the Niners and that was a tough loss, I am also very happy the Chiefs let Tyreek Hill go and then immediately won two straight Super Bowls. Overrated kid abuser.
By DVOA, Hill is actually the best kid abuser by some distance.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This is some serious copium.

And it's not correct. What version of the NFL is being played in your multi verse?

The Chiefs literally had the hardest run through the playoffs by DVOA in the history of the NFL.
DVOA doesn't account for:

Playing the softer-than-puppy-shit Dolphins in historically frigid conditions in KC.
Getting to play Coach Hardo in the divisional.
Getting to play one of the great chokers in history in Lamar and Harbaugh in the AFCCG.
And then getting to play history's biggest SB choker in Shanahan in the SB.

And even then, KC needed:
A CMC fumble
A bunch of long FGs
Dre Greenlaw tearing his Achilles just running onto the field
A punt that touched a receiver, which led to a 16 yard TD drive (their only TD of regulation).
Recovering 5 out of 6 fumbles.

Oh and zero holding calls on the OL despite the fact that they were holding like absolute mad on every play.

Literally everything random went their way.


Don't get me wrong: it was an extremely impressive run. But DVOA can't account for any of the above factors.
 

BaseballJones

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Shanahan has now called plays in 3 Super Bowls (one as OC and 2 as HC) and he's blown 10+ point leads in the second half in all 3 of them.

I wouldn't trust this fucking guy to run a Dairy Queen, never mind a Super Bowl. One of history's greatest choke artists.
KC had an average run D this year. Not terrible but not very good. And they played their last two games against the two best rushing offenses in football. And in both games their opponent - while NOT trying to play come-from-behind against a big KC lead mind you - abandoned the run. Absolutely inexplicable.

It’s like Spagnola and Reid were using the Jedi mind trick out there.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I expect KC to be terrific next year. Kelce has one more great year in him, the young receivers are just getting better, they’ll probably add a good one in the draft, and the D is great and young. But still… a lot has to go right to win it all. But to me they’re absolutely the clear favorite going into next year.
I dont see it.

The season was a slog for them.

Kelce is still a good TE, but his ability to stretch the field has diminished. This season was his worst since joining the league, and I don't see that getting better at 35.

They've been drafting WRs, and none of them have developed into what they hoped they would.

To me, the 2 biggest points in the offenses favor are Mahomes (duh) and their line being very young (outside of Thuney).
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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KC had an average run D this year. Not terrible but not very good. And they played their last two games against the two best rushing offenses in football. And in both games their opponent - while NOT trying to play come-from-behind against a big KC lead mind you - abandoned the run. Absolutely inexplicable.

It’s like Spagnola and Reid were using the Jedi mind trick out there.
People are gonna see that CMC had 30 touches and wonder what the fuss is, but the problem was that early 3rd quarter playcalling. They went 3 and out 3 straight drives and on those drives CMC got 1 carry.

That's a firable offense.

As was leading by 3 points late and calling soft zone against the best QB in the game today. Brain worms at work.
 

CFB_Rules

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DVOA doesn't account for:

Playing the softer-than-puppy-shit Dolphins in historically frigid conditions in KC.
Getting to play Coach Hardo in the divisional.
Getting to play one of the great chokers in history in Lamar and Harbaugh in the AFCCG.
And then getting to play history's biggest SB choker in Shanahan in the SB.
Come on now. You could similarly argue that the Patriots got to play Mike Martz who refused to use the best player in the league and that Seattle 2014 is guilty of the biggest choke in NFL history
 

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Come on now. You could similarly argue that the Patriots got to play Mike Martz who refused to use the best player in the league and that Seattle 2014 is guilty of the biggest choke in NFL history
At no point did I ever claim that the Pats' runs were the most difficult in SB history.

I am countering the idea that DVOA is the one thing we should look at to declare the KC run the most difficult. They got to play some of the worst tactical coaches the league has ever seen. They get to celebrate nonetheless and no one should care except that they won, but they didn't exactly beat Paul Brown out there.
 

Van Everyman

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People are gonna see that CMC had 30 touches and wonder what the fuss is, but the problem was that early 3rd quarter playcalling. They went 3 and out 3 straight drives and on those drives CMC got 1 carry.

That's a firable offense.

As was leading by 3 points late and calling soft zone against the best QB in the game today. Brain worms at work.
I need to watch a game with you and my daughter.

The excuse for continuously throwing when Atlanta needed to burn clock during that Super Bowl was that they had gotten there as a passing team. That excuse doesn’t cut it in this game, because McCaffrey was their bell cow all season and yet they’d protected him a little for the stretch run. Plus he had absolutely run over the Chiefs in the first half. I don’t get it either.
 

johnmd20

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At no point did I ever claim that the Pats' runs were the most difficult in SB history.

I am countering the idea that DVOA is the one thing we should look at to declare the KC run the most difficult. They got to play some of the worst tactical coaches the league has ever seen. They get to celebrate nonetheless and no one should care expect that they won, but they didn't exactly beat Paul Brown out there.
So you're on a a website formed because the actual numbers matter more than the vibes and you're like, "Dvoa doesn't mean anything because you're not accounting for the vibes. The Ravens are chokers and coach Hardo is a hardo."
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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So you're on a a website formed because the actual numbers matter more than the vibes and you're like, "Dvoa doesn't mean anything because you're not accounting for the vibes. The Ravens are chokers and coach Hardo is a hardo."
Your aggressiveness is....strange.

This website was formed to talk about the Red Sox and other sports. I don't recall having to pass a maths test to join.

I didn't say DVOA didn't mean anything. I am saying, for the third time, that DVOA doesn't account for the very human factors at work in this year's postseason matches. That KC's opposing coaches, very much like the Pats' opposing coaches used to do, lost their minds at the very crux of their playoff games is addition flavor that needs (IMO) to be added to the picture to get a good idea of KC's postseason run.

We're just talking here.
 

cornwalls@6

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I need to watch a game with you and my daughter.

The excuse for continuously throwing when Atlanta needed to burn clock during that Super Bowl was that they had gotten there as a passing team. That excuse doesn’t cut it in this game, because McCaffrey was their bell cow all season and yet they’d protected him a little for the stretch run. Plus he had absolutely run over the Chiefs in the first half. I don’t get it either.
The only viable explanation would be if CMC was more dinged up from that awkward, leg bending tackle in the first half than we know. But on the occasions he did touch the ball in the second half, he looked fine to me. I really think it was Shanny, again, puking on his shoes in big game, or trying to be too clever/counter-intuitive, or something. Just an awful second half and OT from him and his staff. Taking nothing away from KC.
 

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And look, maybe one day Kyle Shanahan will become a Real Boy and figure his shit out. Andy Reid used to be a meme too, but then he figured his shit out.

Until that day arrives, though, Shanny is going to have to live with the label of Epic Postseason Choker, because in his 3 SBs he's lived up to that label admirably.
 

johnmd20

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Your aggressiveness is....strange.

This website was formed to talk about the Red Sox and other sports. I don't recall having to pass a maths test to join.

I didn't say DVOA didn't mean anything. I am saying, for the third time, that DVOA doesn't account for the very human factors at work in this year's postseason matches. That KC's opposing coaches, very much like the Pats' opposing coaches used to do, lost their minds at the very crux of their playoff games is addition flavor that needs (IMO) to be added to the picture to get a good idea of KC's postseason run.

We're just talking here.
What am I being aggressive about? We're talking.