Is Eduardo Rodriguez going to be an ace?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

What would you expect the Sox to have to offer to acquire Taijuan Walker?
 
Because that's about what EdRo might be expected to bring in return. Their lines have been relatively equivalent, both throw hard, and though Walker has a better pedigree and better overall track record, he's a righty with one less year less at minimum salary.
 
Now, I personally see the Sox system as bereft of quality starting pitching prospects at every stop between Owens and Kopech, so I would not expect whatever return EdRo, plus the net loss of other assets provided in trade, to equal in value what six more seasons of EdRo (and those assets) should provide the Red Sox over the next 4-6 years.
 
Of course, I also don't trust the current Sox FO to make good valuations and trade decisions about starting pitching.

 

[iayork]

Is there a precedent for a pitcher increasing the spread between his fastball and change up, for instance? If the don't, he'll remain a #3/4. 

 
First, Rodriguez' spread between his fastball and curve is about 7.1 mph.  That's better than 60% of pitchers in the league.  
 
Other pitchers with lower spreads than this, according to PitchFX, include such names as Clayton Kershaw (5.6 mph), Jordan Zimmerman (5.5), Madison Bumgarner (6.8), Sonny Gray (6.9), and Steven Strasburg (6.9).  Are these pitchers #3/4? 
 
If you're going to argue that a bigger spread is always going to be better, please look at Zac Grienke, whose spread has become smaller every years since 2008 (11.2 mph) to 2015 (3.5 mph); yet he still seems to be having an adequate year.
 
Finally, if you're not happy with EdRod's spread now, it's very common for pitchers to increase or decrease their fastball/changeup spreads by a couple mph between seasons.  That would put him in the same range of such clear #1 pitchers as Rick Porcello (9.2) and Bartolo Colon (9.2), though he'd have to pick up his game to match Joe Kelly (10.9 mph).  
 
I hope you'll continue to work with his pitching coaches to set EdRod straight.  

 

[WenZink]

 
First, Rodriguez' spread between his fastball and curve is about 7.1 mph.  That's better than 60% of pitchers in the league.  
 
Other pitchers with lower spreads than this, according to PitchFX, include such names as Clayton Kershaw (5.6 mph), Jordan Zimmerman (5.5), Madison Bumgarner (6.8), Sonny Gray (6.9), and Steven Strasburg (6.9).  Are these pitchers #3/4? 
 
If you're going to argue that a bigger spread is always going to be better, please look at Zac Grienke, whose spread has become smaller every years since 2008 (11.2 mph) to 2015 (3.5 mph); yet he still seems to be having an adequate year.
 
Finally, if you're not happy with EdRod's spread now, it's very common for pitchers to increase or decrease their fastball/changeup spreads by a couple mph between seasons.  That would put him in the same range of such clear #1 pitchers as Rick Porcello (9.2) and Bartolo Colon (9.2), though he'd have to pick up his game to match Joe Kelly (10.9 mph).  
 
I hope you'll continue to work with his pitching coaches to set EdRod straight.  

 
I think P91's question was legitimate, especially considering the history of Rodgriguez' development.
 
From his Soxprospects.com profile page:
 
"Changeup 86-88 mph...Throws most comfortably in the upper velocity range... Orioles organization reportedly tried to get him to throw the pitch in the low 80s, but after the trade began throwing it harder."
 
So there exist different philosophies from one organization to another.  Reportedly the Sox pitching instructors just told him to just go with his upper velocity.

 

[Drek717]

 
I think P91's question was legitimate, especially considering the history of Rodgriguez' development.
 
From his Soxprospects.com profile page:
 
"Changeup 86-88 mph...Throws most comfortably in the upper velocity range... Orioles organization reportedly tried to get him to throw the pitch in the low 80s, but after the trade began throwing it harder."
 
So there exist different philosophies from one organization to another.  Reportedly the Sox pitching instructors just told him to just go with his upper velocity.

With the Orioles he was struggling in the minors.  As soon as he joined the Red Sox he started dominating.  Maybe there are different philosophies regarding EdRod's change, but it's pretty clear which one is the right one at this point.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

High velocity changeups tend to produce fewer swing-and-misses but more weak contact. That's a fine trade-off to make in a vacuum, especially with a plus fastball and the ability to locate it, but puts additional stress on developing his curve to help out when the batter is taking a two strike approach or you desperately need a K. Fortunately, that sort of pitch fits a starter's arsenal better than a reliever's.

 

[threecy]

The biggest change is babip, it was unsustainable early and lately it's been high.

 
He's also striking out a lot less people too, which suggests the issue isn't just BABIP.

 

[Plympton91]

 
I think P91's question was legitimate, especially considering the history of Rodgriguez' development.
 
From his Soxprospects.com profile page:
 
"Changeup 86-88 mph...Throws most comfortably in the upper velocity range... Orioles organization reportedly tried to get him to throw the pitch in the low 80s, but after the trade began throwing it harder."
 
So there exist different philosophies from one organization to another.  Reportedly the Sox pitching instructors just told him to just go with his upper velocity.

 
Thanks.  Though Ian's response was overly snarky, I do admit to my radar being way off base on the typical spread of great pitchers between the fastball and change.  I guess holding others to Pedro Martinez's standard isn't always fair.    That's just more evidence that I am getting too parochial in my baseball fandom as part of that "priorities" thing, and don't see enough of the other greats in the game today.  It is reassuring to know that EdRo is about average in his fastball/changeup spread.

 

[iayork]

 Ian's response was overly snarky

 
What do I win?

 

[jk333]

 
He's also striking out a lot less people too, which suggests the issue isn't just BABIP.

I decided to look at this. Last 7 starts vs first 7, 27k's in 37ip vs 36k's in 41ip. You are correct, less strikeouts lately but below a strikeout per inning in both splits. The first 3 starts are the outliers - 21k's in 20 innings. Then he threw 20 innings in his next 4 with 15k's. So his last ten starts he's been one pitcher and the first three starts he was better.

Zips projected him with a k/9 of 6.5 before the season started. You're right about the issue not only being babip. It's that he was a great pitcher the first three starts and not quite as good since. At 22, he's a great young pitcher but he doesn't scream ace thus far. It's interesting how close the preseason projections are to his last ten starts.

Edit: first/last #'s

 

[threecy]

Also interesting...if you take out that lights out 3 game debut...
 
20.2 IP, 0.44 ERA, .382 OPS, .149 BABIP, 3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 66% strikes, 17% looking strikes, 9% swinging strikes, 21% LD
 
...his subsequent 11 game stats are terrible:
 
57.2 IP, 6.40 ERA, .815 OPS, .313 BABIP, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 62% strikes, 17% looking strikes, 8% swinging strikes, 31% LD
 
It would be interesting to see pitch performance details, but the stats suggest that hitters may be laying off some pitches and sitting on others, thus making harder contact.  Perhaps some of this is explained by tipping, but I think there are more factors.

 

[DJnVa]

So you're saying that if you take out the best 20% of his starts his numbers will look bad?
 
Snark aside, he's 22. In those subsequent 11 "terrible" starts he also has the following:
 
6.1 IP, 1 ER versus KC (#10 offense)
6.0 IP, 1 ER versus TOR (#1 offense)
5.0 IP, 1 ER versus HOU (#9 offense)
6.1 IP, 2 ER versus NYY (#2 offense)
7.0 IP, 1 ER versus DET (#11 offense)
7.0 IP, 2 ER versus NYY (#2 offense)
 
He's also had 4 really bad starts, and 1 mediocre one. Nine of his 14 starts have been really, really good. But when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. A lot of that could be a function of his age.

 

[threecy]

So you're saying that if you take out the best 20% of his starts his numbers will look bad?
 
Snark aside, he's 22. In those subsequent 11 "terrible" starts he also has the following:
 
6.1 IP, 1 ER versus KC (#10 offense)
6.0 IP, 1 ER versus TOR (#1 offense)
5.0 IP, 1 ER versus HOU (#9 offense)
6.1 IP, 2 ER versus NYY (#2 offense)
7.0 IP, 1 ER versus DET (#11 offense)
7.0 IP, 2 ER versus NYY (#2 offense)
 
He's also had 4 really bad starts, and 1 mediocre one. Nine of his 14 starts have been really, really good. But when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. A lot of that could be a function of his age.

If you want to pick and choose, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, and Wade Miley have also had good starts against good teams this year.
 
I'm suggesting something changed after the 3 start honeymoon and, that if you take it out of the equation, the balance of the season thus far has been bad in aggregate.
 
For reference, Clay Buchholz was also very good in his first 3-4 games in the Majors (2007; 1.59 ERA).  However, when hitters realized the nasty pitches they were flailing away at were balls, his approach was toast.  Thus in part, his 6.75 ERA in 2008.

 

[Wake's knuckle]

Stretch vs. Wind-up? 917 OPS with a man on first vs 655 with bases empty.... 873 with men on 1st and 3rd.
 
And yes, he gets killed in losses and is brilliant in wins: ERA of 13.09 in 5 losses... 1.34 in 6 wins... 2.25 in 3 no-decisions. I know ERA is half garbage, but when the differences are SO big, it's really an eye opener...

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Scouting reports on him
Tipping pitches in at least two, probably more games. 
Bad day at the office. It happens to all pitchers.
Sometime hitters destroy good pitches.
Shit happens.

 

[DJnVa]

If you want to pick and choose, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, and Wade Miley have also had good starts against good teams this year.

 

I didn't pick and choose to eliminate bad ones. I said that in the 11 starts you said were terrible, 6 of them were actually very good, and those good starts were against good teams.
 
I think it's a lot more accurate to say that he's had 9 of 14 starts be "very good" as opposed to saying he's had "11 terrible starts" after those first three.

 

[threecy]

I think it's a lot more accurate to say that he's had 9 of 14 starts be "very good" as opposed to saying he's had "11 terrible starts" after those first three.

Who said that?

 

[DJnVa]

Who said that?

 
 
Okay, mea culpa, you said his stats for the next 11 starts were terrible.
 
That aside, I still think it's noteworthy that he did pitch very well in a majority of those 11 starts, and against good teams.
 

 

[czar]

Interesting note on ERod and his supposed "pitch tipping." For 2015, out of the windup he has a 25% LD% and 30% HardHit%. Out of the stretch he has a 19% LD% and 28% HardHit%. So I'm not sure we can ascribe a huge chunk of his rates to tipping, even if we acknowledge he was doing it.
 
As folks have mentioned, during his early season dominance, he was significantly outpitching his peripherals. Now, he's a hair over them (4.83 ERA versus 4.12/4.20 xFIP/SIERA).
 
I don't really see a whole lot of value in extracting individual starts and chopping up a 78 IP sample size. It seems like he's been performing like a 1ish fWAR type pitcher, which isn't terrible for a 22-y-o. His mediocre SwStr% on all pitches (even the offspeed stuff he doesn't throw that frequently) is somewhat of a concern, but I'm willing to give the staff some time to see if they can get a little more swing-and-miss in his arsenal. Otherwise, he seems to profile like a #4ish guy.

 

[Dewy4PrezII]

Interesting note on ERod and his supposed "pitch tipping." For 2015, out of the windup he has a 25% LD% and 30% HardHit%. Out of the stretch he has a 19% LD% and 28% HardHit%. So I'm not sure we can ascribe a huge chunk of his rates to tipping, even if we acknowledge he was doing it.
 
As folks have mentioned, during his early season dominance, he was significantly outpitching his peripherals. Now, he's a hair over them (4.83 ERA versus 4.12/4.20 xFIP/SIERA).
 
I don't really see a whole lot of value in extracting individual starts and chopping up a 78 IP sample size. It seems like he's been performing like a 1ish fWAR type pitcher, which isn't terrible for a 22-y-o. His mediocre SwStr% on all pitches (even the offspeed stuff he doesn't throw that frequently) is somewhat of a concern, but I'm willing to give the staff some time to see if they can get a little more swing-and-miss in his arsenal. Otherwise, he seems to profile like a #4ish guy.

are you saying that he profiles as a #4 at 22 or as a #4 overall?

 

[czar]

are you saying that he profiles as a #4 at 22 or as a #4 overall?

 
Both, I guess. There's not a whole lot of upside in the raw MLB sample so far. If that were to persist indefinitely, he'd be a solid, but unspectacular starter. TBH, a cheap 1-2 fWAR starter is plenty fine, just not ace-like.
 
Hopefully (more likely?) is the fact that he'll progress somewhat stuff-wise (although more and more work shows that velocity peaks in the early-mid 20's, the biggest area he has for improvement is his offspeed stuff). I think I'd rather have a guy with tons of swing-and-miss in his game but some command issues versus a guy who doesn't have awful command but is below average in the "whiff stuff" department, but we'll have to see how E-Rod progresses.
 
And, to be clear, I think E-Rod has the best chance of the lefty triumvirate (Johnson and Owens) to reach an elite ceiling.

 

[Plympton91]

Here's one way to think about the potential of EdRo to be an ace.  Which of their starting pitchers or starting pitching prospects would the Mets trade to acquire EdRo?  Harvey? Syndergard?  Matz?  Wheeler?

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
I think I'd rather have a guy with tons of swing-and-miss in his game but some command issues versus a guy who doesn't have awful command but is below average in the "whiff stuff" department, but we'll have to see how E-Rod progresses.
 
And, to be clear, I think E-Rod has the best chance of the lefty triumvirate (Johnson and Owens) to reach an elite ceiling.

 
Doesn't Owens fit the "swing-and-miss but command issues" model better than the other two?

 

[czar]

 
Doesn't Owens fit the "swing-and-miss but command issues" model better than the other two?

 
To an extent, yes, but I'm thinking more along the lines of 13-15% SwStr% because that projects to a truly elite ceiling if you can get the walks under control. But even Owens hasn't shown that kind of stuff.
 
It's not like Owens has been blowing ERod's doors off in the K% dept in the minors the last few seasons. Plus, a lot of Owens' scouting reports imply that folks fear his stuff is the type of stuff that plays way up in the minors relative to the majors (one such argument is that his fastball is unlikely to generate many pure swings/misses in MLB, but he can still squeak it by younger guys in AA, etc.)

 

[redsoxstiff]

It depends on his ability to learn on his own...Our minor league is a tad smelly right Now...

 

[jscola85]

Here's one way to think about the potential of EdRo to be an ace.  Which of their starting pitchers or starting pitching prospects would the Mets trade to acquire EdRo?  Harvey? Syndergard?  Matz?  Wheeler?

 
Let Rodriguez pitch in that cavern in the NL and I'd bet he would look a lot better.  Given he's 2 years younger than Matz and has no history of injury like Wheeler (who is 3 years older), I'd absolutely keep Rodriguez over either of them.  Harvey and Syndergaard are clearly studs; that doesn't mean Rodriguez is going to be a #4 starter.

 

[jk333]

 
To an extent, yes, but I'm thinking more along the lines of 13-15% SwStr% because that projects to a truly elite ceiling if you can get the walks under control. But even Owens hasn't shown that kind of stuff.
 
It's not like Owens has been blowing ERod's doors off in the K% dept in the minors the last few seasons. Plus, a lot of Owens' scouting reports imply that folks fear his stuff is the type of stuff that plays way up in the minors relative to the majors (one such argument is that his fastball is unlikely to generate many pure swings/misses in MLB, but he can still squeak it by younger guys in AA, etc.)

The scouting reports about Owens are a concern but I think your sw st% are a bit high. 14-15% is extremely elite, while 10% is very good and >11% is excellent. If Owens can sustain 10%, that's a win for the Sox.

Also, Owens has struck out more batters than erod, in 2013 the rates were 30% to 20% and in 2014 they were 26% to 23%. That said, Owens was worse this year (AAA) and Erod matched Owens when both pitched for the Sox last year.

 

[czar]

The scouting reports about Owens are a concern but I think your sw st% are a bit high. 14-15% is extremely elite, while 10% is very good and >11% is excellent. If Owens can sustain 10%, that's a win for the Sox.

Also, Owens has struck out more batters than erod, in 2013 the rates were 30% to 20% and in 2014 they were 26% to 23%. That said, Owens was worse this year (AAA) and Erod matched Owens when both pitched for the Sox last year.

 
I probably should have said 11%+, but it's guys like Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar who had elite stuff but control issues in the high minors/upon MLB arrival but have settled down to be very good pitchers. Occasionally you have guys with below-average marks, but the more we learn about young pitching peaks, the more we realize that's the exception rather than the rule.
 
FTR, I never said Owens struck out less batters than ERod. Although I wouldn't paint 2013 as a big win for Owens, since I don't take K% in A ball too seriously.

 

[jk333]

 
I probably should have said 11%+, but it's guys like Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar who had elite stuff but control issues in the high minors/upon MLB arrival but have settled down to be very good pitchers. Occasionally you have guys with below-average marks, but the more we learn about young pitching peaks, the more we realize that's the exception rather than the rule.
 
FTR, I never said Owens struck out less batters than ERod. Although I wouldn't paint 2013 as a big win for Owens, since I don't take K% in A ball too seriously.

When you discount their A ball strike out rates, I get what you mean. Their AA/AAA numbers are closer and the scouts do like Erods stuff more.

And of course you're right about the early peaks for pitchers.

 

[threecy]

Per Rotoworld and Brian MacPherson, ERod will have his next start skipped.
 
Closing in on his career high in IP.

 

[NDame616]

140 innings this season
120 last season
145 in 2013
 
Not surprised they're pulling him in a bit

 

[Shane]

Yeah, I would be shocked if Owens didn't start the season in Pawtucket, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Eduardo did too.

I actually agree with you. I think both Owens and Eduardo have been pretty good this year, but they'll both likely have some regression next year, and are not going to pitch like aces. Both also have things to work on (Eduardo: third pitch, Owens: control). We have enough guys to start the year without either of them. And it's almost certain that someone will get hurt, in which case they'll both be ready to join the rotation. I think starting both in AAA makes the most sense for all involved.

 

[NDame616]

I actually agree with you. I think both Owens and Eduardo have been pretty good this year, but they'll both likely have some regression next year, and are not going to pitch like aces. Both also have things to work on (Eduardo: third pitch, Owens: control). We have enough guys to start the year without either of them. And it's almost certain that someone will get hurt, in which case they'll both be ready to join the rotation. I think starting both in AAA makes the most sense for all involved.

 
For the life of me, I can't understand this....starting Edro in AAA.
 
Here is the list of SPs for the 2015 Boston Red Sox who had a lower ERA:
Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Here is a list of pitchers who had a better ERA+ than Edro:
Clay Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Here is a list of pitchers who had a better WHIP than Edro:
Clay Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Starting Edro in AAA to work on his 3rd pitch makes as much sense as putting Xander in AAA to help him work on his power. He was arguably our best pitcher this year. 

 

[chrisfont9]

 
For the life of me, I can't understand this....starting Edro in AAA.
 
Here is the list of SPs for the 2015 Boston Red Sox who had a lower ERA:
Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Here is a list of pitchers who had a better ERA+ than Edro:
Clay Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Here is a list of pitchers who had a better WHIP than Edro:
Clay Buchholz in 18 starts
 
Starting Edro in AAA to work on his 3rd pitch makes as much sense as putting Xander in AAA to help him work on his power. He was arguably our best pitcher this year. 

I don't think his first-season stats are the entire answer. There are qualitative questions some people seem to be raising, like does he have a third pitch, which might be better to deal with in AAA, and then there's the roster crunch, especially if they bring in another starter and can't unload Miley or whomever. His stats show that he *can* pitch in the majors, in 2016 and thereafter, but at his age and with his potential there's more to it than that.

 

[Shane]

I don't think his first-season stats are the entire answer. There are qualitative questions some people seem to be raising, like does he have a third pitch, which might be better to deal with in AAA, and then there's the roster crunch, especially if they bring in another starter and can't unload Miley or whomever. His stats show that he *can* pitch in the majors, in 2016 and thereafter, but at his age and with his potential there's more to it than that.

I agree. It seems like we'd be greedy to put him in the rotation next year, may help us out a little, but in the long run he'll have a much better career if he can get a third pitch

 

[Sprowl]

I agree. It seems like we'd be greedy to put him in the rotation next year, may help us out a little, but in the long run he'll have a much better career if he can get a third pitch

 
He has a third pitch, a slider. It's just not a very good one: the movement is unimpressive and Edro makes a lot of location mistakes with it. Even with that mediocre third pitch, he's still one of the team's better starters.
 
Will an extra, otherwise unneeded year in the minors turns his slider into a plus pitch? I doubt it. It's easier to "work on" the fastball than the slider, mostly because almost every pitcher throws mostly fastballs. He'll still use it occasionally (~12% of his pitches in 2015 were sliders), and make occasional mistakes with it.

 

[Shane]

 
He has a third pitch, a slider. It's just not a very good one: the movement is unimpressive and Edro makes a lot of location mistakes with it. Even with that mediocre third pitch, he's still one of the team's better starters.
 
Will an extra, otherwise unneeded year in the minors turns his slider into a plus pitch? I doubt it. It's easier to "work on" the fastball than the slider, mostly because almost every pitcher throws mostly fastballs. He'll still use it occasionally (~12% of his pitches in 2015 were sliders), and make occasional mistakes with it.

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/17/the-ongoing-education-of-eduardo-rodriguez-2/

His slider's not just a bad pitch - apparently it's the worst pitch in baseball. I think he should abandon it altogether and start throwing a cutter. He is one of the team's best pitchers, but that's because they don't have another starter who finished the year with an ERA under 4.00, unless you count Buchholz who only played half the year. (Miley is the closest at 4.46.) I think he's far from a finished product, and some time in AAA might not be a bad thing necessarily. Besides, it's almost certain that someone will get hurt, and I would still bet he finishes the year in the rotation.

Side note: stupid question, but if he pitches the whole year in the minors, does that count as one of his six years of service time?

 

[nvalvo]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/17/the-ongoing-education-of-eduardo-rodriguez-2/

His slider's not just a bad pitch - apparently it's the worst pitch in baseball. I think he should abandon it altogether and start throwing a cutter. He is one of the team's best pitchers, but that's because they don't have another starter who finished the year with an ERA under 4.00, unless you count Buchholz who only played half the year. (Miley is the closest at 4.46.) I think he's far from a finished product, and some time in AAA might not be a bad thing necessarily. Besides, it's almost certain that someone will get hurt, and I would still bet he finishes the year in the rotation.

Side note: stupid question, but if he pitches the whole year in the minors, does that count as one of his six years of service time?

 
Does that number adjust for the pitch-tipping incidents?

 

[Shane]

 
Does that number adjust for the pitch-tipping incidents?

Not sure...but how many pitch tipping games were there? Doesn't erase the fact that the pitch has been terrible. It is possible to get by with two, but he'd need to get more swings and misses with the fastball to just use those two. Even if he had an ok pitch, it would be good enough.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Not sure...but how many pitch tipping games were there? Doesn't erase the fact that the pitch has been terrible. It is possible to get by with two, but he'd need to get more swings and misses with the fastball to just use those two. Even if he had an ok pitch, it would be good enough.

At least one, possibly two. But there could have been more that weren't mentioned in the press. The first time was against the Orioles in late June and the second time against the Angels in late July. Tim Britton had an article about what he was doing. On 6/25 against the Os he gave up 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings and on 7/20 he gave up 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings.
 
Yes, it's possible to get by with two pitches, but not for very long unless both of those pitches are very good. 

 

[nvalvo]

Not sure...but how many pitch tipping games were there? Doesn't erase the fact that the pitch has been terrible. It is possible to get by with two, but he'd need to get more swings and misses with the fastball to just use those two. Even if he had an ok pitch, it would be good enough.

 
I don't think it rated poorly in the old scouting reports, so I suspect that's small sample noise due to the two or three games where he was tipping the pitch with how he held his chin. It wouldn't take too many XBH on sliders hitters saw coming to totally bork those numbers.
 
I'll have to check. 

 

[NDame616]

 
He has a third pitch, a slider. It's just not a very good one: the movement is unimpressive and Edro makes a lot of location mistakes with it. Even with that mediocre third pitch, he's still one of the team's better starters.
 
Will an extra, otherwise unneeded year in the minors turns his slider into a plus pitch? I doubt it. It's easier to "work on" the fastball than the slider, mostly because almost every pitcher throws mostly fastballs. He'll still use it occasionally (~12% of his pitches in 2015 were sliders), and make occasional mistakes with it.

 
The bolded is the most important part. He was arguably the team's best SP last season. People will try to parse it with "Buchholz is better but doesn't start enough" and "Kelly has nasty stuff when he's on" and "Miley is a horse" and "Porcello really turned it on at the end of the year" etc...but all of this fails to address the main point: Eduardo Rodriguez was one of, if not THE, best pitcher on our staff last year. 
 
Unless we pick up Price, Cueto and trade for guys like Gray/Sale etc, there is no reason for Edro to not  start the season in our rotation.

 

[alwyn96]

 
I don't think it rated poorly in the old scouting reports, so I suspect that's small sample noise due to the two or three games where he was tipping the pitch with how he held his chin. It wouldn't take too many XBH on sliders hitters saw coming to totally bork those numbers.
 
I'll have to check. 

 
This discussion of Eduardo Rodriguez probably doesn't belong in a Henry Owens thread, but at any rate, looking at Fangraphs, Rodriguez' slider has actually been one of his less effective pitches even outside the "pitch-tipping" games.
 
He's certainly hung a few, but it happens. You can get away with more hangers in AAA than in MLB. He's still a very young guy and I'm sure he can sharpen it up.

 

[nvalvo]

 
This discussion of Eduardo Rodriguez probably doesn't belong in a Henry Owens thread, but at any rate, looking at Fangraphs, Rodriguez' slider has actually been one of his less effective pitches even outside the "pitch-tipping" games.
 
He's certainly hung a few, but it happens. You can get away with more hangers in AAA than in MLB. He's still a very young guy and I'm sure he can sharpen it up.

Thanks for tracking that down.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Lefties hit .423 with a .308 isolated power against Rodriguez's slider this year. Only got swing and misses 1 out of 5 swings against them.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Don't you expect at least some regression from him next year? And I really don't like any of the pitchers in their rotation. What's stopping them from signing Price and then trading for Sale and Ross? Sale, Price, Ross, Buchholz, Porcello with Eduardo coming up when Buch inevitably gets hurt takes this team to the World Series with a solid lineup

Price agreeing to a contract and Ross or Sale being available for trade, which is by no means a given. They can't do whatever they want. Other people have to agree to it.

The talk of Gray, Sale, Ross, etc really should stop. It's wish casting to a Giancarloesque proportion.

 

[swingin val]

Price agreeing to a contract and Ross or Sale being available for trade, which is by no means a given. They can't do whatever they want. Other people have to agree to it.

The talk of Gray, Sale, Ross, etc really should stop. It's wish casting to a Giancarloesque proportion.

Not sure why Tyson Ross is lumped in with Sale and Gray. I would think that Ross is about 100 times more gettable than either of those other two guys.

 

[Shane]

People mis-use regression enough that I would say they will add "get worse" as a colloquial definition within a few years.  It does still drive me crazy though.
 
I think Rodriguez's September was a hopeful indication that he won't take a big step back.  I don't think he is going to be an ace, though it's still within the vast realm of possibility.

To me, the only chance he has at being an ace is if he can develop a breaking ball (cutter?). There have been pitchers that rely almost completely on their fastball, but that would require him missing a lot more bats, this year his swinging strike rate was below league average if I remember right.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sorry...maybe a bad word choice. I meant that after teams have seen him for a whole year, won't they have better scouting reports on him? They become more likely to know about stuff (example: he relies heavily on his fastball, terrible breaking ball)

 

Yeah, I posted before having my coffee, so my response was probably harsher than it might be.
 
But the flip side of scouting reports is that Rodriguez also gets to benefit from them as he prepares his game plans with the coaching staff and catchers. Even more importantly, Rodriguez also has been alerted to his tendency to tip his slider, which means he can work on it in the VWL or elsewhere. And he's young enough that it's not too much to think that he can improve it, as well.
 
Realistically, there's just no clear way to separate out "he's got a bad breaking ball" from "he's tipping his breaking ball" in the stats of his 2015 MLB season. By which I mean, if Rodriguez stops tipping when the pitch is coming, maybe it's not so bad. By PitchFX, it doesn't appear to me to be as objectively bad as his results with it were, although I'm sure someone like jnai or iayork would be much more capable of showing that it is or isn't.
 
He's only 22 . In Jon Lester's age-23 season, back in 2007, his slider was an even worse pitch (according to wSL/C rating).
 
That's not meant to be a serious comparison, FWIW. Only to suggest how open the future is, when talking about 22-year old MLB pitchers.

 

[YTF]

I'm hopeful of some progression out of Eduardo. He showed flashes of brilliance early on then he got roughed up and then he seemed to right the ship a bit. Towards the end of the season there were a few starts that showed him struggling and throwing a lot of pitches early on, often putting guys on base and in scoring position. Yet many times he would get out of it allowing maybe a run. I think he showed incredible poise for a rookie and barring a disastrous spring he's going to be one of the starting five so I'm really looking forward to seeing him settle into the bottom part of the rotation for a full season, and watching him mature as a pitcher.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

For what it's worth (how many grains of salt):
 
Joel Sherman:
 

...Young lefty starters Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens and perhaps Brian Johnson. Rodriguez, in particular, excited scouts with one saying, “He just has to learn to take a little more off his changeup and add a little more tilt to his breaking ball and once he does that, for me, he is an ace.”