Is Dave Dombrowski back with the Sox in 2020?

Is DD back with the Sox in 2020

  • Yes

  • No


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soxhop411

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If you asked me this question on Sunday, my answer would have been yes. However, the Boston Globe just published this on their front page about DD (yes I know it’s from Shaughnessy) but the fact that the globe went thru and published this, makes me have second thoughts on if his job is actually “safe”
25511
 

donutogre

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Guess I should have read the post before voting. I voted yes, and I'm still semi-confident in that, but obviously this report makes it sound like far from a foregone conclusion.
 

RedOctober3829

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Sam Kennedy went on WEEI saying Dombrowski is under a long-term contract. So, the answer is yes he will be back. But, he better have a better offseason than he did this previous one. Cot's says they are $56.8 million under the tax threshold for next year before arbitration raises.

They will have to get a starting pitcher, address JD Martinez's opt out, figure out 1B and bench, upgrade the bullpen, and approach Mookie Betts on a contract extension. They also have to decide whether JBJ is a Red Sox after next year.
 

lexrageorge

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I voted yes, again before reading the article. I still say he's a 90% sure bet to return. Why?

This is from one of Shaughnessy's "picked up the pieces" of column, which he delivers a bunch of short and trite takes on a variety of items. There's not a lot of meat behind most of them. Some are inarguably correct (Bill Parcells should be in the Pats HoF), some are humorous (Mets and Knicks being the same team), and some are deliberately insensitive (his unjustified swipe at the women's World Cup Soccer team). But the Globe gives him a lot of leeway to say what he wants, so I'm not sure there is even smoke here, never mind fire.

My uneducated guess is that Dombrowski is no longer talking to CHB's sources within the organization, hence the "isolated himself with pals" comment. I doubt Shaughnessy has any good info on the relationship between DD and Werner/Henry, which is what matters. And Shaughnessy is not qualified to discuss whether DD is the person to oversee the rebuilding of the farm system talent. He probably has no idea who the Sox drafted over the past 4 drafts, or what draft position the Sox were in when they made those picks. And one season is not how we should judge the Sale/Eovaldi contracts.

I will say that Dombrowski had a horrible offseason, and will still have some payroll challenges to overcome. So his presence on the masthead is not guaranteed in 2021. But his return in 2020 seems highly probable.
 

nattysez

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Sam Kennedy went on WEEI saying Dombrowski is under a long-term contract. So, the answer is yes he will be back. But, he better have a better offseason than he did this previous one. Cot's says they are $56.8 million under the tax threshold for next year before arbitration raises.

They will have to get a starting pitcher, address JD Martinez's opt out, figure out 1B and bench, upgrade the bullpen, and approach Mookie Betts on a contract extension. They also have to decide whether JBJ is a Red Sox after next year.
I think the following is accurate, but welcome corrections if I've gotten anything wrong.

They have 7 guys signed for next year. According to Sportrac, this is how much their salaries account for in terms of cap calculations:
Price - $31m
JDM - $22m
Sale - $25.7
X - $20m
Eovaldi - $17m
Pedey - $13.75
Vazquez - $4.5

That's a total of ~$134m. Benefits and minor league contracts cost ~$17.5m. That means that the Sox go into the offseason with ~$151.5m already spoken for.

The 2020 tax levels are $208m, $228m, and $248m.

Mookie, ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman all will be arb eligible. Devers is still under club control without arb eligibility.

Now you start prognosticating:
Mookie made $20m this year. Let's say the Sox play hardball in arbitration, point to his "down" year, and he stays at $20m.
Let's say ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman wind up making $20m as a group.
Devers will have to get a raise, but only enough to keep him moderately happy. Let's call that $1m.
Assume you fill in first and second with Chavis and Lin, who make a total of about $1m.
Let's further assume that they need to keep about $10m free to give them room to maneuver during the year.

Even in this best-case scenario (which includes giving Mookie no raise, not doing much to keep Devers happy, and living with a right side of the infield of Chavis and Lin), the Sox would be at around $203m in terms of a tax number before they add a starter, top-line reliever and a bench/bullpen (assume 5-6 more pitchers and 3-4 bench guys). And presumably DD will remain under strict orders not to exceed the $248 tax threshold.

So he's got $45m with which to fill 9 spots. That is an unenviable task.

JDM could opt out, which would throw some of this analysis out the window. JDM's money would allow them to pursue another solution at first or second or give Mookie his extension.

If JDM stays, it's hard to avoid the fact that trading Mookie this off-season is an obvious means to resolving a lot of issues. He could land them good young players who can fill areas of need, and it seems hard to imagine they'll be able to afford to pay him in 2021 given what he'll demand and what their salary structure looks like.

So the question may ultimately be: do you trust DD to make the decision whether or not to trade Mookie? And do you trust him to extract max value for Mookie if he moves him?

Edited to reflect comments below
 
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P'tucket rhymes with...

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I think the following is accurate, but welcome corrections if I've gotten anything wrong.

Mookie made $20m this year. Let's say the Sox play hardball in arbitration, point to his "down" year, and he somehow winds up with $15m this year.
Can't cut a player's salary more than 20% in arbitration. It's also, uh, pretty unlikely to happen to a guy on track for a 6 fWAR season.
 

brs3

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I think the following is accurate, but welcome corrections if I've gotten anything wrong.

They have 7 guys signed for next year. According to Sportrac, this is how much their salaries account for in terms of cap calculations:
Price - $31m
JDM - $22m
Sale - $25.7
X - $20m
Eovaldi - $17m
Pedey - $13.75
Vazquez - $4.5

That's a total of ~$134m. Benefits and minor league contracts cost ~$17.5m. That means that the Sox go into the offseason with ~$151.5m already spoken for.

The 2020 tax levels are $208m, $228m, and $248m.

Mookie, ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman all will be arb eligible. Devers is still under club control without arb eligibility.

Now you start prognosticating:
Mookie made $20m this year. Let's say the Sox play hardball in arbitration, point to his "down" year, and he somehow winds up with $15m this year.
Let's say ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman wind up making $20m as a group.
Devers will have to get a raise, but only enough to keep him moderately happy. Let's call that $1m.
Assume you fill in first and second with Chavis and Lin, who make a total of about $1m.
Let's further assume that they need to keep about $10m free to give them room to maneuver during the year.

Even in this best-case scenario (which includes giving Mookie a paycut, not doing much to keep Devers happy, and living with a right side of the infield of Chavis and Lin), the Sox would be at around $198m in terms of a tax number before they add a starter, top-line reliever and a bench/bullpen (assume 5-6 more pitchers and 3-4 bench guys). And presumably DD will remain under strict orders not to exceed the $248 tax threshold.

So he's got $50m with which to fill 9 spots. That is an unenviable task.

JDM could opt out, which would throw some of this analysis out the window. JDM's money would allow them to pursue another solution at first or second or give Mookie his extension.

If JDM stays, it's hard to avoid the fact that trading Mookie this off-season is an obvious means to resolving a lot of issues. He could land them good young players who can fill areas of need, and it seems hard to imagine they'll be able to afford to pay him in 2021 given what he'll demand and what their salary structure looks like.

So the question may ultimately be: do you trust DD to make the decision whether or not to trade Mookie? And do you trust him to extract max value for Mookie if he moves him?
The bolded sections throw out everything else this post has. There's zero chance Mookie is paid less than he is this season. There's probably zero chance he's paid even the same amount. There's also zero chance Devers earns 1 million dollars next season. I would expect minimum 10 million in arbitration, and much more depending on how his MVP ranking goes.

I
 

chawson

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The bolded sections throw out everything else this post has. There's zero chance Mookie is paid less than he is this season. There's probably zero chance he's paid even the same amount. There's also zero chance Devers earns 1 million dollars next season. I would expect minimum 10 million in arbitration, and much more depending on how his MVP ranking goes.
The record for first-year arbitration is $10.85 million, set by Kris Bryant in 2018 after two consecutive seasons at 146-148 wRC+.

Devers, currently at 137+, could probably fall in the 8-10 million range, but I don’t know that a figure that approached an MLB record is the “minimum” we should expect.
 

nattysez

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The bolded sections throw out everything else this post has. There's zero chance Mookie is paid less than he is this season. There's probably zero chance he's paid even the same amount. There's also zero chance Devers earns 1 million dollars next season. I would expect minimum 10 million in arbitration, and much more depending on how his MVP ranking goes.

I
Devers is not arb-eligible.


Can't cut a player's salary more than 20% in arbitration. It's also, uh, pretty unlikely to happen to a guy on track for a 6 fWAR season.
Thanks for the update. I'll edit accordingly.
 

Beomoose

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Without insight into how he, Cora, and the ownership are talking I just voted on "would I have him back?" grounds. Which would be a "no" from me. I love and cherish the ring, and he's not been without bright spots outside that run. But here we are in 2019 with a team that boasts huge contracts and small results.
 
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nattysez

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I'm expecting Mookie to earn 25-27M in arb next year, similar to Arenado.
At $27m for Mookie, you're down to $38m to completely refurbish the bullpen, get a competent starter or two, and fill out the bench. I'm not arguing that that's not possible, but the higher Mookie's arb number, the more inevitable it becomes that he's going to get dealt.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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At $27m for Mookie, you're down to $38m to completely refurbish the bullpen, get a competent starter or two, and fill out the bench. I'm not arguing that that's not possible, but the higher Mookie's arb number, the more inevitable it becomes that he's going to get dealt.
Well duh, doesn't mean you can keep him at $20 or only a small raise.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think the following is accurate, but welcome corrections if I've gotten anything wrong.

They have 7 guys signed for next year. According to Sportrac, this is how much their salaries account for in terms of cap calculations:
Price - $31m
JDM - $22m
Sale - $25.7
X - $20m
Eovaldi - $17m
Pedey - $13.75
Vazquez - $4.5

That's a total of ~$134m. Benefits and minor league contracts cost ~$17.5m. That means that the Sox go into the offseason with ~$151.5m already spoken for.

The 2020 tax levels are $208m, $228m, and $248m.

Mookie, ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman all will be arb eligible. Devers is still under club control without arb eligibility.

Now you start prognosticating:
Mookie made $20m this year. Let's say the Sox play hardball in arbitration, point to his "down" year, and he stays at $20m.
Let's say ERod, Benintendi, JBJ, Barnes and Workman wind up making $20m as a group.
Devers will have to get a raise, but only enough to keep him moderately happy. Let's call that $1m.
Assume you fill in first and second with Chavis and Lin, who make a total of about $1m.
Let's further assume that they need to keep about $10m free to give them room to maneuver during the year.

Even in this best-case scenario (which includes giving Mookie no raise, not doing much to keep Devers happy, and living with a right side of the infield of Chavis and Lin), the Sox would be at around $203m in terms of a tax number before they add a starter, top-line reliever and a bench/bullpen (assume 5-6 more pitchers and 3-4 bench guys). And presumably DD will remain under strict orders not to exceed the $248 tax threshold.

So he's got $45m with which to fill 9 spots. That is an unenviable task.

JDM could opt out, which would throw some of this analysis out the window. JDM's money would allow them to pursue another solution at first or second or give Mookie his extension.

If JDM stays, it's hard to avoid the fact that trading Mookie this off-season is an obvious means to resolving a lot of issues. He could land them good young players who can fill areas of need, and it seems hard to imagine they'll be able to afford to pay him in 2021 given what he'll demand and what their salary structure looks like.

So the question may ultimately be: do you trust DD to make the decision whether or not to trade Mookie? And do you trust him to extract max value for Mookie if he moves him?

Edited to reflect comments below
JBJ($8.5 this year) will be making about $10 million himself. ERod made $4.3 this year. He will probably around $6 next year. Benintendi goes from $717,500 to maybe $2-$3 million? Workman doubles or triples his salary between $3-$4 million. Barnes probably goes from $1.6 into the $2.5-$3 million range. That is about $25.5 million for those players and the payroll would be north of $176 million. That is without a 1B, a spot open in the rotation, 2 open bench spots, and bullpen upgrades to make. Yikes.

I'd give serious thought to unloading Bradley for prospects and funneling his money to either the bullpen or starting rotation. You can find a defensive-first CF a bit easier than you can find shutdown bullpen help.
 

BaseballJones

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I agree @RedOctober3829 - I think trading JBJ would make a ton of sense. And I like him a lot. Save money, get younger and maintain the pretty good defense in CF.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'd give serious thought to unloading Bradley for prospects...
So would I.
So would the Sox.
Other teams? ... I doubt many would give up any actual prospects for him. They know the Sox are over a barrel financially. They won't be taking JBJ's arb number ... AND give away anything of value
 

RedOctober3829

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So would I.
So would the Sox.
Other teams? ... I doubt many would give up any actual prospects for him. They know the Sox are over a barrel financially. They won't be taking JBJ's arb number ... AND give away anything of value
Then just take the arb number and give the Sox a couple of A-ball lotto tickets. If I were DD, I'd value the salary space although I do think they'll go over the $208 threshold.
 

Plympton91

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So would I.
So would the Sox.
Other teams? ... I doubt many would give up any actual prospects for him. They know the Sox are over a barrel financially. They won't be taking JBJ's arb number ... AND give away anything of value
This is what I fear as well. JBJ has a lot of pride and I wouldn’t expect him to accept it, but they need to sit him down and show him that Adam Jones signed for $3 million last offseason. JBJ should get an offer of maybe twice that, take or leave, and if he won’t take it, and they can’t find a trade partner who wants his arb number, they should be prepared to nontender him.
 

DeadlySplitter

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JBJ is transcendent in CF and we take that for granted. still, at this point you probably take the downgrade there for other upgrades.
 

chawson

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What’s the return gonna be on a JBJ trade? The Giants gave up next to nothing for two cheaper years of a pretty similar, maybe slightly worse player in Kevin Pillar. Adam Jones isn’t a great comp — he’s got the same bat but he’s five years older and a terrible defensive player.

Maybe it’s because the Sox “need two center fielders” to play Fenway, but I’ve always thought JBJ is worth more to us than anyone else. The only contending team I could see trading for him is the Phillies, who may have lost Odubel Herrera for awhile. Sliding Mookie to center and signing Puig to a 2 or 3 year deal is pretty tempting, but I’d probably go the other route and try to sign Jackie for a couple more years at 8 or 9 per. He’s not old.
 

scottyno

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"He get's the blame for the Chris Sale Contract"

Shank can't even let the Sale extension actually start and he's already decided it's a failure. (Though I guess plenty have here too)
 

OurF'ingCity

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"He get's the blame for the Chris Sale Contract"

Shank can't even let the Sale extension actually start and he's already decided it's a failure. (Though I guess plenty have here too)
Yeah, it is kind of nonsensical that people are writing off the remainder of Sale's career because he's had, like, four bad months.

The Eovaldi contract criticism is a bit more justified, obviously, since Eo's money could have been used to bolster the bullpen instead. But it still seems pretty rash to be talking about firing a WS-winning GM after a single bad offseason.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah, it is kind of nonsensical that people are writing off the remainder of Sale's career because he's had, like, four bad months.

The Eovaldi contract criticism is a bit more justified, obviously, since Eo's money could have been used to bolster the bullpen instead. But it still seems pretty rash to be talking about firing a WS-winning GM after a single bad offseason.
Especially after he's won three straight division titles - which no Red Sox team had ever done before.
 

dano7594

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I believe Dombrowski was brought in here as a hired gun so to speak. The Sox had a top 5 farm system and his job was to use that along with the payroll to win a title and he succeeded. I think now they will be in somewhat of a transition.

For all that voted he will return next year, do you want to extend him, or are you comfortable with him going into next season with just one year remaining on his contract?
 

nattysez

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Especially after he's won three straight division titles - which no Red Sox team had ever done before.
Is this really a worthwhile stat (that's an honest question, not snark)?

Sox 2003-2005 won 95 games twice and 98 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
Sox 2007-2009 won 95 games twice and 96 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
The DD Sox won 93 games twice (losing in the LDS both times), then won 108 and a WS. But they won the division thrice.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Is this really a worthwhile stat (that's an honest question, not snark)?

Sox 2003-2005 won 95 games twice and 98 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
Sox 2007-2009 won 95 games twice and 96 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
The DD Sox won 93 games twice (losing in the LDS both times), then won 108 and a WS. But they won the division thrice.
They won the division in 2007
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
For all that voted he will return next year, do you want to extend him, or are you comfortable with him going into next season with just one year remaining on his contract?
I'd be happy to go with just one year, myself. I tend to agree with your assessment that DD was the right man for the moment when he was hired, and now the moment is different and a new GM (depending on who it is, of course) might be a good idea.

But I can't imagine the Sox firing him one year after the best season in team history. If nothing else, think what it would say to prospective replacements. I mean, it's not as if they've gone from hero to zero -- they're still a good team, just not good enough. This is not 2014.

So I think the only two realistic possibilities are (a) they extend him, or (b) they let the contract play out and reassess in November 2020. I think (b) is both more likely and, from a fan's point of view, more desirable.
 

BaseballJones

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Is this really a worthwhile stat (that's an honest question, not snark)?

Sox 2003-2005 won 95 games twice and 98 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
Sox 2007-2009 won 95 games twice and 96 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
The DD Sox won 93 games twice (losing in the LDS both times), then won 108 and a WS. But they won the division thrice.
I think it means that on the whole, DD has been very successful in his tenure with the Red Sox.
 

maufman

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I believe Dombrowski was brought in here as a hired gun so to speak. The Sox had a top 5 farm system and his job was to use that along with the payroll to win a title and he succeeded. I think now they will be in somewhat of a transition.

For all that voted he will return next year, do you want to extend him, or are you comfortable with him going into next season with just one year remaining on his contract?
Zero chance DD is back next season without a contract extension. Even managers usually don’t serve out their contracts — the temptation to make short-sighted decisions is too great.

Normally, a GM who won 108 games and a championship who had 2 years left on his contract would get an extension. That didn’t happen — which imo suggests that either ownership or DD had reservations about making a long-term commitment, even before this disappointing season. I’m not sure Shaughnessy has good sources in ownership now that LL is gone, but even apart from this article, I’d say the odds of DD returning in 2020 are 50/50 at best.

If DD does go, I’d expect it to be portrayed as a mutual decision. It’s plausible, DD won’t want to get fired, and ownership might be concerned about sacking back-to-back GMs relatively soon after they won championships.
 

Danny_Darwin

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People keep calling DD a GM. He isn't; his official title is "President of Baseball Operations." The team hasn't had anyone with the title of "General Manager" since Mike Hazen, who left after the 2016 season. So maybe the face-saving move here would be to hire a "GM" and keep Dombrowski in more of an advisory role? Just spitballing, really, I have no idea what's going to happen.
 

maufman

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People keep calling DD a GM. He isn't; his official title is "President of Baseball Operations." The team hasn't had anyone with the title of "General Manager" since Mike Hazen, who left after the 2016 season. So maybe the face-saving move here would be to hire a "GM" and keep Dombrowski in more of an advisory role? Just spitballing, really, I have no idea what's going to happen.
DD just turned 63 and has won four pennants and two World Series. Wouldn’t be surprising if he was ready to step back. Might be hard to find someone you want running baseball operations who is willing to have DD looking over his shoulder. Not sure if ownership’s not-so-stellar handling of the LL/Theo situation would heighten the concerns of would-be candidates, or if that’s considered ancient history at this point.
 

johnnywayback

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I don't believe for a second that Shaughnessy is doing any actual reporting here, but I still voted No. It's very easy to see the team arriving at a real crossroads this offseason, contemplating a Betts trade or some other dramatic re-invention, and it's also easy to imagine some of the young, talented guys like Eddie Romero getting offers elsewhere. If I'm Henry, I'd rather make the change a year too early than a year too late.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Is this really a worthwhile stat (that's an honest question, not snark)?

Sox 2003-2005 won 95 games twice and 98 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
Sox 2007-2009 won 95 games twice and 96 games once, won the WS, went to an ALCS game 7, and lost in the LDS. But they never won the division.
The DD Sox won 93 games twice (losing in the LDS both times), then won 108 and a WS. But they won the division thrice.
They had the best record in the league pretty much wire to wire in 2007. Of course they won the division that year.
 

dano7594

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Who would be in the mix to replace him?

I want to answer this and not hijack the thread. I have always thought Theo returns with complete control of baseball ops. He always says "not to stay in one place longer than 10 years." Maybe he leaves a year early.
 

IpswichSox

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We'll always have a special place in our hearts for Theo. There's a lot of contract criticism in this thread focused on Dombrowski, but let's not forget that Theo had a ton of free agent misfires. (Conceding the point that some of those free agent signings might have been ownership/LL-driven.)
 

OurF'ingCity

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DD just turned 63 and has won four pennants and two World Series. Wouldn’t be surprising if he was ready to step back. Might be hard to find someone you want running baseball operations who is willing to have DD looking over his shoulder. Not sure if ownership’s not-so-stellar handling of the LL/Theo situation would heighten the concerns of would-be candidates, or if that’s considered ancient history at this point.
It's a good point - I hadn't really considered the likelihood that DD himself might want to take a reduced role or just retire, but I could see it. As others have stated, the one thing he does really well is take a team's current assets and turn them into a championship contender. Well, we won a championship and basically gave up all our assets to do it. If he looks at the state of the team and thinks "we can get back to championship level but it's going to take a few years of shedding salary, rebuilding the farm system, etc." I could see him just not being up for that.
 

jtn46

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I want to answer this and not hijack the thread. I have always thought Theo returns with complete control of baseball ops. He always says "not to stay in one place longer than 10 years." Maybe he leaves a year early.
Isn't Theo just a younger version of Dombrowski now? When his team has a need he either throws money at it or trades away the farm. The Cubs aren't developing talent like they did a few years ago, they seem to be really in about the same spot we are where they are good enough to justify all the GFIN stuff Theo does but aren't a juggernaut like the Dodgers and figure to get a little worse as they contend with Bryant and Baez aging into being expensive. The Cubs will probably stink in 3 years which I don't think is criminal as Theo tried to capitalize on his awesome young core, but that's exactly what Dombrowski is doing.
 

Danny_Darwin

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We'll always have a special place in our hearts for Theo. There's a lot of contract criticism in this thread focused on Dombrowski, but let's not forget that Theo had a ton of free agent misfires. (Conceding the point that some of those free agent signings might have been ownership/LL-driven.)
For that matter, Dombrowski has yet to trade away anyone as good as Eloy Jimenez or Gleyber Torres while in charge of the Red Sox. Although Moncada might still make it interesting.

EDIT: Maybe I was a little hasty in posting this, because Moncada is having a better season than both of those guys. So DD only traded away one guy who's that good while Theo traded away two.
 
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dcmissle

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27,579
CHB wrote this? Then it's clearly birdcage liner and nothing else.
Considering context in full, this thread probably is a perfect expression of self entitlement and cluelessness. I am talking about the whole SoSH collection. It sure as hell beats the shit out of anything I’ve seen in BBTL over two decades. I don’t know that I have seen anything as un-self aware as the question posed in five decades of RS fandom.