His walk rate (<2%) and chase rate (37%) are still concerns, but worst case he's a quality #2 catcher. Could even fetch actual value in a trade if Teel ends up blocking him.
Is Connor Wong a starting catcher?
- Thread starter nvalvo
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He's such an interesting player - very few catcher profiles come to mind to compare him to. The only thing keeping him back defensively is keeping the ball of front of him (worst so far this season, and 10th percentile last season in blocks above average per statcast). But he controls the running game because everyone knows his pop time, and when guys do go, they get thrown out more often than not. The pitch framing BS will go away soon too because of the automated zone, so that'll make him even better.
Teel's pop time has been clocked at 1.9 which is even better than Wong's was last season (1.92) and in the 89th percentile. This is the best catching future they've had since the Slocumb trade. The Dodgers were swindled (tongue not visible).
Edit: Or a pop time of 1.72 depending on the quality of stop watches.
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1689099761616326656
Teel's pop time has been clocked at 1.9 which is even better than Wong's was last season (1.92) and in the 89th percentile. This is the best catching future they've had since the Slocumb trade. The Dodgers were swindled (tongue not visible).
Edit: Or a pop time of 1.72 depending on the quality of stop watches.
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1689099761616326656
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Teel bats left, Wong bats right. McGuire would seem to be the odd man out. If Wong keeps hitting like this, they can find other ways to get his bat in the lineup when he's not catching. Ditto for Teel.
That play should be shown during GG voting! Are there even 5 MLB catchers with the speed to make that play?
I'm not sure I've *ever* seen a catcher field an infield hit as well as that. The distance he had to run, the speed with which he got there, the spin and the accuracy.
It was an absolutely beautiful play.
Merloni did a nice job on the broadcast last night also talking about how that really was a key tipping point between Crawford's line being an excellent 7ip with 2er as opposed to 5+ip with 2er and seeing leaving it up to the Joley Rodriguez' of the world to make sure it doesn't end up looking like a horrible start.
I continue to feel the same way about Wong I have for a while. He's absolutely fine as a starting catcher on small money. Sure, you could probably upgrade, but with holes in plenty of other places, it's not really something that needs fixing. He's a good "caddy" to go with Teel if he's ready any time soon (as mentioned, hits from the opposite side) and can hold down the fort as an above average catcher until he's ready. Nothing wrong with having above average players - the issue is of course when you have a large number of below average players that all need to be platooned to be effective and only 26 spots on the roster.
Wong isn't that, and it's a good thing.
Merloni did a nice job on the broadcast last night also talking about how that really was a key tipping point between Crawford's line being an excellent 7ip with 2er as opposed to 5+ip with 2er and seeing leaving it up to the Joley Rodriguez' of the world to make sure it doesn't end up looking like a horrible start.
I continue to feel the same way about Wong I have for a while. He's absolutely fine as a starting catcher on small money. Sure, you could probably upgrade, but with holes in plenty of other places, it's not really something that needs fixing. He's a good "caddy" to go with Teel if he's ready any time soon (as mentioned, hits from the opposite side) and can hold down the fort as an above average catcher until he's ready. Nothing wrong with having above average players - the issue is of course when you have a large number of below average players that all need to be platooned to be effective and only 26 spots on the roster.
Wong isn't that, and it's a good thing.
McGuire has a year left of control after this year. They all kind of line up if Teel continues to progress.
Wong is better than last year but isn't a world beater. The game calling is much better however the framing and his bat aren't huge improvements. He doesn't walk and makes weak contact a lot chasing bad pitches. If the entire infield wasn't the island of misfit toys, it would be less of an issue.
So is he a starting catcher? Shrug I guess but not a really good one.
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Under the hood a little for those who like Savant.
Obviously not great exit velocities or HH%'s (that's not new), but when the guy has hit the ball hard this year, he makes it count.
Defense is as others have noted. Terrible at blocking pitches, and I'm sure the CS will go up.
1st percentile for BB's is, uh, not good, but love to see him in the 50th percentile for K's. 12% less K's than last year. 12%!!! That's a continuation of the spring, where his K rate was only 18%, I believe. I think eliminating the toe tap has really helped. Others have speculated he's just swinging a lot earlier in the count.
He's swinging 3% more or so, 2% more on the first pitch. And he's just making more contact. Whiff rate is down 7%, 5% more contact on pitches he's chasing, 8% more contact on pitches in the zone. Swinging at pitches in the one 4% more. That's a substantial difference.
The BABIP is obviously through the roof (412), but a Wong that hits .250/.300/.450 would definitely play.
Obviously not great exit velocities or HH%'s (that's not new), but when the guy has hit the ball hard this year, he makes it count.
Defense is as others have noted. Terrible at blocking pitches, and I'm sure the CS will go up.
1st percentile for BB's is, uh, not good, but love to see him in the 50th percentile for K's. 12% less K's than last year. 12%!!! That's a continuation of the spring, where his K rate was only 18%, I believe. I think eliminating the toe tap has really helped. Others have speculated he's just swinging a lot earlier in the count.
He's swinging 3% more or so, 2% more on the first pitch. And he's just making more contact. Whiff rate is down 7%, 5% more contact on pitches he's chasing, 8% more contact on pitches in the zone. Swinging at pitches in the one 4% more. That's a substantial difference.
The BABIP is obviously through the roof (412), but a Wong that hits .250/.300/.450 would definitely play.
While I get what you're saying here, he's also not a really bad one either. I tend to think all in, he's a little above average. Which is fine and certainly not a problem.
Or, put another way, plenty of other stuff to spend time worrying about and trying to fix than Connor Wong as the "starting" catcher.
Yea, I would probably argue a bit below average (I worry about a catcher with no command of the strike zone on either side of the plate) but you are right the team has bigger problems and there is nothing I would do to "correct" the situation besides continue to monitor Teel.
I think I've said this before but I'm a huge fan of Connor Wong. He's just entering his prime, he can whack the ball, he has to be the fastest catcher on the basepaths, and he can control the running game. He's also inexpensive.
Also, I know whatever is going on with the staff is due to that Baily and Co. Magic Sauce but Wong has to play some part in it, even if it's just a small part.
Also, I know whatever is going on with the staff is due to that Baily and Co. Magic Sauce but Wong has to play some part in it, even if it's just a small part.
I'd be curious to know how the blocking numbers translate into runners advancing/scoring.
It has been said before, but Wong doesn't have a ton of catching experience. He did not catch regularly until his final year of college and he started at catcher intermittently in the minors: 2017- 26 games, 2018- 70 games, 2019- 80 games, 2020- 0 games, 2021- 44 games+3 games with the Sox, 2022- 53 games+17 games with the Sox. That's an average of 49 games a year.
Finally, last year, he started 105 games with the Sox. He's still young (turning 28 later in May) and is considered to be exceptionally athletic. I would anticipate that his defense is still a work in progress and will continue to improve.
Finally, last year, he started 105 games with the Sox. He's still young (turning 28 later in May) and is considered to be exceptionally athletic. I would anticipate that his defense is still a work in progress and will continue to improve.
What? The guy is killing it this year.... his defense and framing/catching looks fantastic! His control of the basepaths has to be elite.... So what he doesn't walk a lot if he's hitting the ball and not making outs. What the hell do people want here????
As far as Teel not being ready... yeah, McGuire has a full season remaining and it's not a shock that Teel is struggling and yes, it's once month into the season and I expect him to get better. But it's one month in AA. I'd like to see him at least for half a year in AAA before saying he's the future of the team behind the plate. And I do think he is, but I REALLY doubt that's happening anytime soon or even opening day '25.
As far as Teel not being ready... yeah, McGuire has a full season remaining and it's not a shock that Teel is struggling and yes, it's once month into the season and I expect him to get better. But it's one month in AA. I'd like to see him at least for half a year in AAA before saying he's the future of the team behind the plate. And I do think he is, but I REALLY doubt that's happening anytime soon or even opening day '25.
Had a huge game last night, so maybe he’s getting his feet under him.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxplayerdev/status/1786036230137782622?s=46&t=SzrdSkggdLnlBb_l7iGXpg
By bWAR, the Boston catching tandem of Wong/McGuire tie for #5 in baseball.
MIL - 1.2
KCR - 1.0
LAD - 0.8
ATL - 0.7
BOS/MIN/BAL - 0.6
Wong's individual bWAR is 0.8. McGuire's is 0.5.
Only 8 catchers have a higher WAR than Wong.
Contreras-MIL 1.8
Perez-KC 1.7
Jeffers-MIN 1.4
Rutschman-BAL 1.3
d'Arnaud-ATL 1.2
Smith-LAD 1.2
Raleigh-SEA 1.1
Bailey-SFG 1.1
As bWAR is a counting stat, it's good to note these guys, except for d'Arnaud and Bailey, all have more ABs than Wong.
But even so, by bWAR, that puts him at #9 among the 30 starting catchers in baseball.
He's OPSing .750 (wRC+ 119) in god awful weather. That's perfectly fine.
Wong is even better by fWar at 0.9, which dinged him last year for being a terrible framer. It might be small sample size, or maybe he's figured something out, but he's slightly positive in framing so far this year, compared to last year where he was one of the worst framers in baseball.
WAS struggling before yesterday's game. Early season fluctuations on both good and bad stats I guess. But basically, unless he destroys AA and moves to AAA by June and then destroys AAA I just don't see him as anything more than an injury or late season call-up in '25. But I'd put some serious money down that he's starting in '26. Could potentially see McGuire as trade bait at '25 trade deadline if he continues to play as well as he has been and bring something pretty good in return.
I expect Teel will make quick adjustments....maybe already has started to. April in New England is cold. He grew up in NJ, but this is likely his first exposure to Spring baseball...certainly at the college/professional level. Part of his struggle might be struggle....and part might be weather. If he gets it started in right direction, a post all star game promotion might be possible. He could be ready for sometime in '25, I wouldn't right that off yet.
I played golf in Florida today, was having a drink after, one of us was wearing a Red Sox hat, and a guy came over to our table. Turns out he was Kyle Teel's father. Very excited about his son, says he has another one at Virginia, a sophomore who he expects will get drafted next year. Wasn't thrilled about the weather in Portland so far. He had heard of SOSH, didn't know much about it, I told him many of us are looking forward to Kyle's arrival in Boston. Nice guy.
Didn't ask him. He wasn't really very big himself, I'd say 5' 8" to 5' 10" or so and actually somewhat slight in build.
The reason he may not be up next year isn't because he can't make the leap, notwithstanding his first 65 AB. It's that we have the luxury of not needing him in Boston STAT, not now anyway and hopefully that holds into next season since Wong and McGuire should still be around. I suppose these decisions can come down to pressure from above -- we need him -- and below -- he's outclassing his current level. The former is unlikely, while the latter... tbd.
Is Wong making a big enough leap that you at least consider Teel available in trade for a young starting pitcher next winter?
He definitely is starting caliber and too good to be a backup.
He definitely is starting caliber and too good to be a backup.
You mean the 22 year old catcher of the future who was the #1 draft pick for the Sox last year to keep the 28 year old, who I happen to love, instead of having them as a platoon in a couple of years if Teel keeps moving through the minor league ranks like he has been? Catcher is pretty close to starting pitching as being difficult to develop. No.
I get it; if Wong is an .750-.800 OPS catcher with plus defense and Teel helped fetch a Logan Gilbert is the scenario I’m laying out.
Unlikely for sure, just saying Wong doesn’t appear to be a platoon player moving forward.
I get that it's no sure thing that Teel will be a MLB catcher, but you also need to look at the age of Wong. One of his biggest assets is his speed. It would be very unusual for him to still have the speed he has now in a couple of years. Time always wins. And what team is in so great of a need that they would be willing to trade a good starter, or very good starter prospect, for a catching prospect, which is what Teel is at this point.
You do not trade Teel because you're keeping Wong. You trade McGuire because you're promoting Teel and keeping Wong.
If both warrant more playing time than a L/R platoon or even straight 50/50 PT allows, you can give Wong some starts at 2B or, as Ras suggests, 3B.
Catcher is a tough position. I'd love to have a 1A and 1B catcher to provide each plenty of days off and to have a legit #1 if the other #1 gets banged up.
Remember deep depth? Two starting caliber catchers is deep depth, and if both Wong and Teel could cover third and or first, we'd have deep depth and positional flexibility at one of the most difficult positions to find quality.
We have been confidently told that Connor Wong's production is unsustainable and would plummet at some point. After OPSing .755 in May he is back in the.920 area. What gives? When is his production normalizing to whatever his detractors think it should be?
His BABIP is 100 points higher than the league average despite lower than average LD, Hard Hit, and EV. But his BABIP has always been higher than avg. But he’s cut his k rate a ridiculous amount which seems real. So, who knows. He’s good but probably not this good, at least offensively. Certainly seems like an above average catcher at worst.
That's a fair assessment. And this may well prove to be illusory. Wong has his flaws but is clearly above average athletically and even if he outperforming right now at the plate, he rarely looks lost even against good pitching. People who are looking at peripherals maybe aren't using their eyes because while the BABIP data screams lucky the eye test tells you what Wong is doing feels legitimate. Maybe he reverts to league average or worse but the reason I buy it is the approach. He gets beaten but he almost never looks like he shouldn't be a hitter.
Totally agree; the massive decrease in K rate coupled with a moderate increase in BB rate (especially lately) supports that this is a guy who has worked hard and evolved his approach, as opposed to someone just getting lucky.
So the Mookie trade was worth it? <ducks>
Hypothetically, if this is kinda close to the new normal for Wong (a very large if IMO), what does that mean for Teel and the catcher position in general going forward?
I don't know about Teel but Wong looks legit. He's pretty good at every facet of the game. Even if his batting avg/slg decline, he's still a starting catcher.
This was discussed a while back and I think it settled in on Wong being a BJ Surhoff super sub type.
Not much I think. We have McGuire for 2025. We have Wong up to and including the 2028 season.
Teel may be ready by next year if needed, or they might keep him at AAA and promote him in 2026. Either way, he'll split the catching duties with Wong when he first comes up. Teel's 6 years will start whenever he comes up or the year after. So we'll have him up to and including 2031 or 2032 most likely - basically 3 or 4 years after Wong with a 2 year overlap?
If they're both hitting so well they must be in the lineup, then Wong has some athleticism and can play the field. If there's some kind of absolute log-jam they might make a trade. . .but I kind of doubt that. Having two plus catchers is a good thing.