PedroKsBambino said:
As several people have said, he is not a star, nor a spectacular shooter. I think one of our core disagreements is that you seem to think if someone isn't, they stink and need to go...that just isn't how NBA teams are built. That repeated, being 'average' or 'above average' in several specific skills (which is what your own data shows) is not a bad thing. He also has improved this year, as previously discussed, so the idea that he doesn't have any chance of getting better seems insupportable to me. I think this one comes down to baseline---yours seems awfully high to me given the salary level we're talking about.
It might come down to our team building philosophies. IMO when you are rebuilding retaining average players at their free market value isnt always particularly helpful, especially if you are trying to get under the cap. Its not that one deal cripples you, but its the collective market value deals that hurt. Jeff Green making $9M isnt individually crippling, neither is Bass making $7M, or Lee making $5M or Terry making $5M but collectively when they take up ~$26M or 45% of the $58M cap that holds your franchise back. You have ordinary players who keep you from bottoming out and getting high lottery picks, and you can move them but their money doesnt just vanish off the cap instantly it might take a year or two with the deals you take back.
So when I think of retaining Bradley, unless you see big upside (which we know I dont), I dont see the point because you can go get an average SG at a free market price at virtually anytime. Courtney Lee is a good example of this. When Houston was in the 'asset accumulating' phase before they got Howard, they didnt want to resign Lee and traded him here and got a 2nd round pick because they didnt see the value in giving him a deal that would clog up their cap a bit. We wanted him because we needed to add talent to an established core, so we didnt have a problem paying the market value. But then once we needed to rebuild the core Danny moved Lee because he wasnt particularly helpful.
Which is why personally I would rather save the cap space and try to get flexibility rather than getting a player of average caliber when I can go acquire a player like that at any time.
Also, think back to the 06/07 Celts before the Big 3 trade. The big deals we had on the books were: PP at $15M, Wally at $12M, Ratliff (expiring) at $12M, Baker (albatross) at $5M and everyone else had a salary of $3M or less. Thats a healthy cap situation where you can make huge splashes and sweeping change, thats where I would like us to go and resigning Bradley isnt a movement towards that direction. And again, its not that his one deal would be so awful, its that we have other awful deals that we need to work around, so adding a 'not great' deal isnt a step in that direction to me.
PedroKsBambino said:
Second, I do not agree with your description of his defense---even the metrics you list suggest he's a better defender than your summary. I think it's a little unfair to ding him for the FT given that he has an atrocious backline defense, about the worst in the league. If I thought this were a close call we could look at multiyear data, but I just don't think it really is. Even if we say he's only a little above average here, still...this is a nice combo.
Wait, here is the narrative to the stats which are just listing rankings:
Bradley is 11th out of 22 in steals, which is counter intuitive considering he is thought of as such a great on the ball defender
13th in blocks per game
17th in Opponent FGAs per game (meaning he gave up the 17th most FGAs at the rim)
21st in Opponents FG% at the rim. And before we say its because the Celts lack a presence inside, look at the list there are a lot of teams without good interior defenses on there as well
Bradley ranks 6th, but his 44.6% above the average of 48.9%, but when you look at his PER when guarding PGs and he ranks 16th and his 15.4 is above the average of 14.5 Thats probably because he gives up 5.5 FTs per 18.3 FGAs when guarding PGs and for a great defender you would think he would be better than average in FT/FGA but he isnt. So its sort of a mixed bag with him guarding PGs
There was one stat (eFG% when guarding PGs) where he was 6th, but in every other stat he was average to below average. There really isnt a debate there, those are just the numbers. So when I look at the those rankings and then I conclude that he isnt a dominant defender, I dont think thats outlandish. Every stat but one says he is average, so I know our eyes say he is a great defender because of his intensity, its just not visible in the numbers. So if you want to say I am incorrect on this one, I think you have to back that up with some numbers yourself to show me the error in my ways.
As for his FTs and backline defense, that same logic applies to most of the other guys on that list. But more specific to Bradley, lets compare 13/14 Bradley to 11/12 Bradley when he had KG playing behind him and the Celts finished 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, he had virtually the same numbers.
FGA | FTA | FTA/FGA |
11/12 vs PG | 15.8 | 5 | 0.316455696 |
11/12 vs SG | 19.3 | 4.2 | 0.21761658 |
| | | |
Average | | | 0.267036138 |
| | | |
13/14 vs PG | 18.3 | 5.5 | 0.300546448 |
13/14 vs SG | 16.1 | 4.1 | 0.254658385 |
|
Average | | | 0.277602417 |
|
PedroKsBambino said:
On balance, seems like this data continues to tell a story of a useful (if clearly flawed) player who is very young and has shown improvement. If you think that's totally fungible that's your prerogative; I just don't think that's true.
When you say improvement, do you mean on the catch and shoot numbers or is there anything else that is improving offensively that I dont see? Because if its just catch and shoot we need to remember that is 1/3rd of his offensive game where he has become average, which is why I just dont get too excited about this improvement.