ivanvamp said:
Bradley is an RFA this off-season. The 2014-15 salary figure for him is a Qualifying Offer, and it's pretty much a certainty that somebody will make him an offer that dwarfs that.
Is Bradley a keeper?
- Thread starter Grin&MartyBarret
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Bradley is an RFA this off-season. The 2014-15 salary figure for him is a Qualifying Offer, and it's pretty much a certainty that somebody will make him an offer that dwarfs that.
I doubt that they will hang on to Bradley. If they can get something for him, great. But if some team is prepared to give him a big payday, I think the Celtics will not match it. He's a shooting guard whose shooting is below average and his once-spectacular defense is looking pretty ordinary these days.
Koufax said:
He's shooting the spot up 3 at a higher clip this season than Klay Thompson, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy, JJ Redick, Danny Green, Dirk, Durant, and Ray Allen. Not to mention guys like Conley, Wade, Joe Johnson, Harden.
I'm not saying we should give him a huge payday but below-average shooter isn't really a fair characterization.
Bradley is well on the way to showing that the gamble he can learn to shoot well enough to be an asset (albeit a small one) will pay off. I'd be surprised if he isn't back.
Its not that surprising. He's been "projected" to be a good shooter by coaches since he was in high school. The mechanics, etc. are there. The issue is he needs to finish those damn layups. Every bucket is worth 2 points and missing a bunny a game is totally unacceptable. Paying him what his game might be otherwise worth is hard when he isn't finishing those.PedroKsBambino said:
The thing about Bradley that is appealing to me (but also to other teams?) is that he fits with different kinds of ball-dominant players. He can be a "point guard" in the Mario Chalmers sense if you have a shooting guard or small forward who is a star player. He can be a shooting guard if you have a point guard who is a star player (like he is with Rondo). There's a lot of roster turnover ahead, so if we're going to extend someone I'd rather it be someone who has flexibility like that.
Koufax said:
I agree with others that Bradley's offensive game has advanced this year. While he'll never be more than a complementary offensive player, he has finally shown with some consistency the 20-foot jumper off the dribble that his college scouting report promised.
I'm more bothered by the decline in the defense, which I agree is real. He has not been the same difference-maker on defense that he was with the 2012 Celtics. Maybe his minutes have required him to pick his moments to bring the intensity on defense, the league's point guards have finally learned to guard the ball, and he has played too many minutes against shooting guards.
Right now he's injured, so we won't get a chance to see the Rondo-to-Bradley backdoor layup for a while yet. He would be a great 8th player on a championship team. He's a real asset to somebody, which means Ainge will be open to trading him.
Bradley has two NBA skills, corner/baseline jumpers and on the ball defense on smaller guards. He fits with Rondo because when Rondo was playing with Ray Boston got defense at neither guard spot, at least with Bradley they get it at the 1. He's pretty much the rich man's Mario Chalmers. If you have a wing running the offense Bradley's your guy to defend the 1.The X Man Cometh said:
According to Hoopdata (data is for last season):
eFG%
League average: 49.8%
Bradley : 44.6%
TS%
League average: 53.6%
Bradley: 46.4%
According to RealGM, for this season:
Bradley's PPS = 1.05, ranked 55 out of 70 shooting guards; ranked 299 out of 375 players.
Perhaps I am looking at the wrong statistics, but these scream out "below average" (or worse) to me. And I don't buy his being a credible combo guard. He gets swallowed up when he is playing the point. His whole game deteriorates. He strikes me as easily replaceable. Maybe he never really got his game back after those double shoulder surgeries. He's not the same kid who beat Ray Allen out of his starting position, not even close.
eFG%
League average: 49.8%
Bradley : 44.6%
TS%
League average: 53.6%
Bradley: 46.4%
According to RealGM, for this season:
Bradley's PPS = 1.05, ranked 55 out of 70 shooting guards; ranked 299 out of 375 players.
Perhaps I am looking at the wrong statistics, but these scream out "below average" (or worse) to me. And I don't buy his being a credible combo guard. He gets swallowed up when he is playing the point. His whole game deteriorates. He strikes me as easily replaceable. Maybe he never really got his game back after those double shoulder surgeries. He's not the same kid who beat Ray Allen out of his starting position, not even close.
Koufax said:
Per NBA.com's player tracking stats database, Bradley this year is shooting...
.200 on pull-up 3s
.435 on pull-up 2s
.422 on catch-and-shoot 3s
.478 on catch-and-shoot 2s
His "scoring" percentage is another matter, since he's been bad at the rim and is scoring on drives at a .375 clip on the season. But his shooting is fine, and on a competent team that could got him the ball in spots, a much larger percentage of his attempts would be the catch-and-shoot ones.
Btw, I ve been thinking about it and would like to dispute the premise of the terms chips and keepers. This is not the correct way to approach this and I feel we re missing the point when we re discussing which player should stick with the team over the long term and who isn't.
In theory and practice, every player can be a keeper and every player can be a trade asset.
What you want ideally is two things:
1. Players who provide more value than their contract. I think the implication is obvious, although I guess that in some cases you have to overpay because you have no other options, like in Jeff Green's case.
2. Trades that provide more value in return than what they give. Sometimes, that happens because the other team overvalued your players or undervalued theirs, sometimes the structure of both teams' rosters make this a win win trade for both.
So I guess the correct questions is this thread is this. What is a fair contract for Bradley given our evaluation of him? Conversely, what is an EV+ trade for Bradley if we cannot sign him to a decent contract? And beyond this, if we can't find a decent trade and he's asking money that other teams are willing to give, do we let him go for nothing or do we overpay?
In theory and practice, every player can be a keeper and every player can be a trade asset.
What you want ideally is two things:
1. Players who provide more value than their contract. I think the implication is obvious, although I guess that in some cases you have to overpay because you have no other options, like in Jeff Green's case.
2. Trades that provide more value in return than what they give. Sometimes, that happens because the other team overvalued your players or undervalued theirs, sometimes the structure of both teams' rosters make this a win win trade for both.
So I guess the correct questions is this thread is this. What is a fair contract for Bradley given our evaluation of him? Conversely, what is an EV+ trade for Bradley if we cannot sign him to a decent contract? And beyond this, if we can't find a decent trade and he's asking money that other teams are willing to give, do we let him go for nothing or do we overpay?
For some reason I can't quote prior posts properly. But Nick Kaufman's update two posts higher demonstrates improvement from last year to a still-below-average level. X-man's breakdown between pull-ups and catch-and-shoots is quite interesting. It appears that, on those shots, AB is the 157th best in the league out of 490 players. His proficiency is identical to that of Jeff Green and slightly better than that of Kevin Durant (!). So in that one aspect (admittedly an important one for a shooting guard) he's decent. But his overall +/- is -3.0, the same as Jeff Green, and among Celtics better than only Rajon Rondo and Brandon Bass. So maybe as Rajon comes back to form and feeds Bradley in just the right spot for a catch-and-shoot, his value will increase. But if that's all he's good for, it's not enough for him to be a starter on a good team.
Koufax said:
Eh, +/- or not, I think Bradley is the MVP of the team this year. He keeps teams out of initiating their offense a bit, and he's shown he has that defensive ability even though he's regressed this year giving up cheap fouls. On offense he's always running around trying to get open or create some luck. He's played a role sometimes that doesn't suit him - because its a contract year but also because SOMEONE has to do it on this team.
To me his upside is Afflalo if he improves on the ball as an offensive player. I'd be thrilled with 4/24 for him. Not sure how much higher I'd go given his struggles with easy baskets.
And as I said, part of why I'm comfortable locking him in for 4 years is that I think we can always find a fit for him. Right now it looks like Sullinger needs a shot-blocker next to him to function. Rondo needs a shooter next to him to function (and a defensive anchor to pick up the slack when he's going for steals but that's a story for another day....). Green needs a versatile forward next to him to help him get mismatches. Bradley is the closest thing to a "one size fits all" for me right now.
The other guy I like so far is Humphries but I'm not sure if I want to resign him yet. He's a perfect bench big but frankly he deserves starter money.
The other guy I like so far is Humphries but I'm not sure if I want to resign him yet. He's a perfect bench big but frankly he deserves starter money.
The X Man Cometh said:
I think opinions still vary on whether he's a productive shooter or not, and a review of what people were saying about him over the summer suggests most did not think it would even be a question now (since he hadn't shown a lot previously).
He's the rare situation where I think the next 30 games really will impact my perception of him coming into FA. As an aside, I'm not sure he and Rondo are a particularly good pair, but I get your thinking on why they could be.
Kindof?
I mean, I like him as a midlevel gamble. Maybe he develops into a nice role player, or maybe he's just Erick Strickland. Either way, the Celtics as currently configured are not going to be hamstrung by his contract (unless he wants >Jeff Green money).
I mean, I like him as a midlevel gamble. Maybe he develops into a nice role player, or maybe he's just Erick Strickland. Either way, the Celtics as currently configured are not going to be hamstrung by his contract (unless he wants >Jeff Green money).
IMHO it will depend on the Celtics' draft position (unless some GM makes a really good offer before the deadline, which I doubt). If the Celtics draft a big guard (Exxum, Smart), Bradley becomes so much more expendible.
Late to the game but I want to chime in.
When I think of keeper, its a starter on my next rebuilt team. Any player who would just be playing a role, but wouldnt be a major cog, should be used in search of those starters, and really most importantly the search for those top 3 guys.
Getting back to Bradley, on a championship team I think he could play a great role off the bench or he could maybe be your 5th best starter as long as your PG can cover for his defense deficiencies, and your offense is good enough to cover his inability to shoot. But he cant be a major cog for a great team unless its a very, very unique situation. Say in Miami, Wade could cover SGs, Bradleys lack of PG skill wouldnt be a problem and the offense is good enough to compensate for Bradley. Thats also one of the most talented teams in the league, and again is very unique.
Bradley is great, like one of the best in the game, great at pressuring the ball defensively. Unfortunately his evaluation isnt about what he can do but what he cant do. So ultimately he is a guy that cant play a staring role, and really needs an unique set of circumstances to play a significant role, so to me he is a chip. If we could get something of value for him that would be phenomenal.
When I think of keeper, its a starter on my next rebuilt team. Any player who would just be playing a role, but wouldnt be a major cog, should be used in search of those starters, and really most importantly the search for those top 3 guys.
Getting back to Bradley, on a championship team I think he could play a great role off the bench or he could maybe be your 5th best starter as long as your PG can cover for his defense deficiencies, and your offense is good enough to cover his inability to shoot. But he cant be a major cog for a great team unless its a very, very unique situation. Say in Miami, Wade could cover SGs, Bradleys lack of PG skill wouldnt be a problem and the offense is good enough to compensate for Bradley. Thats also one of the most talented teams in the league, and again is very unique.
Bradley is great, like one of the best in the game, great at pressuring the ball defensively. Unfortunately his evaluation isnt about what he can do but what he cant do. So ultimately he is a guy that cant play a staring role, and really needs an unique set of circumstances to play a significant role, so to me he is a chip. If we could get something of value for him that would be phenomenal.
He'd be a keeper if this team was a piece or two away. If you can get a return for him now, I'd be willing to move him (reasonable 1st). I just dont see this team competing for a title before the bill comes due on Bradley.
wutang112878 said:
See, I disagree tremendously with that.
2012 Heat - Mario Chalmers role
2012 Spurs - Starting as "weak side" of Ginobili platoon
2011 Heat - Mario Chalmers role
2011 Thunder - Starting as "weak side" of Harden platoon
2010 Mavericks - Not an obvious fit
2010 Heat - Mario Chalmers role
2009 Lakers - Derek Fisher role
2009 Celtics - Not an obvious fit
I'm not saying drop a lot of coin on him. But the significant role which Bradley fits is something which is very common among real contenders.
I agree X, which is why I think i'd be making phone calls to said contenders and see whos looking for a good young defensive minded 2-guard to bolster their roster for the stretch run
The X Man Cometh said:
Mario Chalmers really doesnt have a role on those teams, he is really just out there because they need to have 5 people out on the court at the same time and one of them happens to have to guard a PG. And right away strike out the 3 Heat roles because I can find a role for virtually any borderline starter in the league when they play next to Lebron and Wade.
What do you mean by these weak side platoons? That they are playing together at the same time or that Bradley subs in for these guys?
Can you show me a scenario where Bradley is playing a role where we say 'well that team wouldnt be that good without Bradley'? Everytime I think of an important role for him I realize I could take any other balanced player that is a borderline starter and he could come in and fill that exact same role. Basically what I am saying is that what Bradley brings to your team overall isnt that tremendous, I can find a bunch of other guys that really arent that good to bring that value instead but they dont need these unique circumstances to succeed that Bradley does.
Thats why I dont get the attraction for the guy. He is inefficient offensively, cant play the point, but needs to guard the point. He is a very unique puzzle piece thats difficult to find a fit for.
Sure Bradley could have a role on a championship team. Look at guys like Randy Brown and Lindsay Hunter. Having said that, he's expendible, and I certainly wouldn't match an offer sheet starting at more than $4m a year. But for reasonable money he could be a nice piece. Still only 23 years old.
Devizier said:
That's my bottom line as well---there's some upside there (probability and scale of it uncertain) and he's useful today, just not anything special.
Based on talent upside, age and contract, Bradley and Sully are the two closest things to keepers the Celtics have. That said, if a great deal can happen that involves either, make that move.
PedroKsBambino said:
ifmanis5 said:
Can you tell me what I dont see? His biggest, gaping flaw is his inability to be an efficient offensive player. In 11/12 he was getting close to adequate offensively, and he hasnt rebounded to anything close to that. I see dont see steady incremental improvement, and I almost think he has reached his ceiling.
wutang112878 said:
The stats are cited either in this thread or the 'keepers' thread, but Bradley's shooting this year has shown significant improvement overall and on threes. Is he likely to become Ray Allen? Nope....but the defense, improved rebounding, growth towards adequacy on offense make one wonder whether he might take another step up shooting-wise, too.
Don't get me wrong---he certainly could have peaked, too. But he's just 23, so projecting some more shooting growth is reasonable given this year's progress.
Improved to 12/13 when he shot 40% for the year? His stats this year are still worse than his 11/12 stats and those were adequate. Lets cherry pick, take his rookie year and the worst year of his career (11/12) completely out of the equation and you have a guy who had a good year and then hasnt been as good. And thats ignoring that he was putrid last year.
If you can provide me some stats and a narrative of 'look his pull up FG% is climbing and is on pace to be above average next year', thats one thing. But I think what you want to see on the court, just isnt happening numerically in his numbers.
If you can provide me some stats and a narrative of 'look his pull up FG% is climbing and is on pace to be above average next year', thats one thing. But I think what you want to see on the court, just isnt happening numerically in his numbers.
I'd reread the prior posts for the more detailed stats. As you note, he was clearly an adequate shooter previously, so there are some tools there. For me, the big difference between 11-12 and this year is he isn't only taking wide-open, uncovered shots this year as he was then---he's (sadly) one of the focal offensive guys this year. Maintaining a lot of the accuracy (not all, I agree) when your role has changed very significantly suggests growth to me, not regression. Last year sucked, but this year has not---again, I see that as a positive story. Your results may vary...
Do I think he's a sure thing to get better? For the third time, nope. But given the rest of his game, I don't think that's the standard one needs to satisfy in order to be worth a mid-level deal either.
Do I think he's a sure thing to get better? For the third time, nope. But given the rest of his game, I don't think that's the standard one needs to satisfy in order to be worth a mid-level deal either.
PedroKsBambino said:
Bingo. He's alternated between their go-to and 3rd option offensively depending on the game this year, and on a good team he's the 5th best option offensively if starting. I'm ok with them developing his jump shot this season, just like im ok w Sully 3s. If he's around when this team is contending (i dont think he will be) he won't be such a volume shooter. It will be a Bowen-ish role, but on smaller players. Corner 3s, basket cuts, and ball-hounding.
PedroKsBambino said:
This is how I feel. He's a floor spacer. When he's being told to do that he does better than most guards in the league, ergo his spot up shooting percentages from 2 and 3.
On this team as constructed, where he's the #1 option by default/until Jeff Green grows a sack, he takes more of the shots he's bad at and less of the shots he's good at.
To me the only keepers are future stars. Defense-first, 3-point shooting and other specialists & role players can be filled in pretty easily. Without getting in Ainge's head, pretty much impossible to predict whether he's a keeper or a chip (who would've guessed Green, Big Al and West were chips and clown shoes, perk and big baby were keepers). But, if Ainge is trying to land the next superstar (e.g., Kevin Love), pretty sure whether or not Bradley is in the package would not be the deal-breaker. I was as bullish as anyone on Bradley after his "breakout" year but the lack of progress is pretty disheartening (exactly the same as Jeff Green). Pretty hard to find examples of players who haven't made The Leap after 4 years in the NBA and then do so thereafter (Billups & Nash being a couple notable exceptions). Anyway, to put a value on him, in this draft I'd trade him for a mid 1st in a heartbeat.
PedroKsBambino said:
Lets try this differently. In his new role, where he is asked to take normal shots, he is a very below average player from an efficiency standpoint. He is in his 4th year, and as AliveH just mentioned generally you have taken your leaps at this point, or at the very least your trajectory is very clear. So he has to go from an inefficient shooter to a decent one, which is rare, and he has to do improve after the point that most players have virtually peaked. I cant say with completely certainty that he hit his ceiling, but because he has go overcome this I'd say he has a very, very low probability of doing it.
ALiveH said:
I'd actually take any 1st for him.
wutang112878 said:
I don't think either part of what you posted is accurate; I've explained what I see in his numbers and you've just ignored it. You are also making up a development timeline that is simply not so in the second part.
To put it simply, sure if you assume he's bad and that he won't grow, then he has no upside. But neither of your premises is well-supported, so your conclusion looks pretty shaky to me as well.
As I said earlier, I don't think we're talking about a future superstar here, we're talking about a potential good starter or strong third guard. So given this team's overall needs, I'd certainly take a first for him, at least one that has any chance of not being at end of round (e.g. not Miami's or Indiana's).
I promise I am not saying this in a dickhead way, but I literally read this thread up and down twice. Once when you first told me the stats that detailed improvement were already cited and just now to see if I missed a post where you interpreted the numbers. I also read the keepers thread but all the Bradley stuff was moved here. The only actual number statistic I see that is optimistic for him is his FG% on catch and shoot 2s, and thats a tough way to make an argument. If I am missing something please cite the post and I will read it, I'm not trying to be an a-hole.
As for my premises, I think he is currently a below average player because he is so bad offensively. If you dont think thats been discussed in enough detail (I conclude from post 9 - 11 that he is below average) and you want me to document that I will spend some time and back that up no problem. Now developmentally, here is a study where Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University concludes that NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining. That used win shares as a predictor which isnt perfect but its a decent barometer for player worth. So Bradley's winshare numbers are pretty bad and next year he should technically peak according to that study. So I will reassert my position that he has to become an outlier twice, not only being a late bloomer but going from a putrid shooter to a good one, and thats why I think its a very long shot.
As for my premises, I think he is currently a below average player because he is so bad offensively. If you dont think thats been discussed in enough detail (I conclude from post 9 - 11 that he is below average) and you want me to document that I will spend some time and back that up no problem. Now developmentally, here is a study where Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University concludes that NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining. That used win shares as a predictor which isnt perfect but its a decent barometer for player worth. So Bradley's winshare numbers are pretty bad and next year he should technically peak according to that study. So I will reassert my position that he has to become an outlier twice, not only being a late bloomer but going from a putrid shooter to a good one, and thats why I think its a very long shot.
Dave Berri was much better as a comic writer, he should have stuck with that. His Wins stat is generally recognised as one of the worst of all the magic numbers. (It was the formula that posited Jerome fucking Williams as an all-time NBA great, now I loved me some Junk Yard Dog back in the day, but all time great he wasn't, and his prediction of James falling off a cliff four years ago seems a little foolish, no?)
I'd be calling around looking to attach Bradley to Wallace's expiring for a future conditional 1st rounder if I'm Danny. IMO he just doesnt project to be a starter on a good contender, unless u pair him with a big PG who can cover for his size by defending the 2 (i.e. Smart/Exum etc)
wutang112878 said:
Catch and shoot 3s as well, not just 2s. That's why I contest your "so bad offensively" declaration. On a contender there's plenty of catch and shoot 3s to go around. As of when I had looked up those stats above, he was hitting those shots at a higher clip than a litany of "good offensive players" this year. Mike Miller, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, etc. as listed above. He can spot up 3 and that is a very credible offensive skill.
The X Man Cometh said:
I understand your point of view. After pulling some quick data, as of now, against the field of SGs he is basically average at this skillset. I'll have a thorough post in 24 hrs to make my counterpoint and provide the numbers to support it.
wutang112878 said:
OK, I get that you don't value the numbers I've cited, but let's remember that your argument right now is "I think he is currently a below average player because he is so bad offensively" and that's just not much of an argument. You aren't looking deeply at the stats (several types of which have been posted) on offense, you aren't looking at defense, you aren't looking in any meaningful way at Bradley's own development on the court. You may want more numbers from one of us, but you are not making much of a case to rebut.
As for peak, that blurb simply doesn't provide enough info on the study to be valuable, and candidly I highly doubt it is accurate. Methodologically, we don't know how he dealt with early-entry; we don't know how he compared players (for example, counting stats can be higher when younger but efficiency stats often are worse---our view of 'value' is different between those today than it was even in 2009). We don't know how he dealt with players who leave the league (many 22-25 year olds aren't in the league when they are 32. This doesn't mean the player peaked early, though, it likely means teams kept a player thinking there might be growth).
Not knowing his valuation method is especially important, since neither of the players cited in the article actually supports the theory using PER (imperfect, but still likely better than what he was using in 2009). Kobe's best season using PER was 2005-6, when he was 27. LeBron's age 28 was statistically even with his age 24 season.
Finally, even if the study were a strong one, we have the huge issue Dev notes---a statistical average peak age tells us very little about any individual player's path. It surely does not get us anywhere near what you are trying to do---argue no player can grow after age 24. As alluded to in the basketball analytics thread, these things take time, peer review, and a lot of development...someone doing a study may be a nice first step, may be totally useless, and definitely requires us to be clear on its inherent uncertainty when citing it.
Chalmers is actually a net positive for them. His role is to defend the one and knock down open threes. You can't have five all-stars on the floor unless you're at the all-star game. Ultimately every team needs roleplayers and Bradley's a perfect complement to any team that runs the offense out of the SG/SF positions, or could do that if they chose (Minnesota, for example, could allow the 6'5" Rubio defend the SG spot). There's actually a pretty healthy list of teams where he'd fit well.wutang112878 said:
I have to break this up into multiple posts because of all the tables.
First lets look at where Bradley ranks with this best skillset, the catch and shoot FG%. I took this data from NBA.com and had to use ESPNs list of SGs, for this list I filtered on SGs averaging 30 min per game:
Bradley ranks 9th, but his 43% is slightly better than the overall average of 40.38%.
If we look at his ranking on catch and shoot 3s for SGs with 30+ min he is 12th out of 22, and his 39.3% is virtually the same as the 39.07% average
First lets look at where Bradley ranks with this best skillset, the catch and shoot FG%. I took this data from NBA.com and had to use ESPNs list of SGs, for this list I filtered on SGs averaging 30 min per game:
| Player | GP | MIN per game | Catch and Shoot PTS per game | Catch and Shoot FGM per game | Catch and Shoot FGA per game | Catch and Shoot FG% |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 44 | 34.7 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 50.70% |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 51 | 34.5 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 45.50% |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 48 | 36.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 45.40% |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 47 | 34.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 43.90% |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 43 | 32.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 5 | 43.90% |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 46 | 32.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 43.80% |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 48 | 32.3 | 5.5 | 2 | 4.7 | 43.60% |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 50 | 38.1 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 43.50% |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 45 | 31.2 | 5 | 2 | 4.8 | 43.00% |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 47 | 37.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 42.40% |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 48 | 32.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 42.10% |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 45 | 33.6 | 5 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 41.20% |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 40 | 33 | 6 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 41.00% |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 36 | 33.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 40.00% |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 51 | 36.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 39.10% |
| James Harden (HOU) | 43 | 38.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 36.80% |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 51 | 33.4 | 2.2 | 1 | 2.6 | 36.30% |
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 53 | 30.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 36.10% |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 45 | 36.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 33.80% |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 52 | 32.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 33.30% |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 47 | 35.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 31.70% |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 36 | 36.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 31.30% |
Bradley ranks 9th, but his 43% is slightly better than the overall average of 40.38%.
If we look at his ranking on catch and shoot 3s for SGs with 30+ min he is 12th out of 22, and his 39.3% is virtually the same as the 39.07% average
| Player | GP | MIN per game | Catch and Shoot 3FGM per game | Catch and Shoot 3FGA per game | Catch and Shoot 3FG% |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 44 | 34.7 | 2.5 | 5 | 49.50% |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 51 | 34.5 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 45.00% |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 43 | 32.6 | 2 | 4.4 | 45.00% |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 46 | 32.9 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 44.80% |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 48 | 36.9 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 44.60% |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 48 | 32.3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 43.80% |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 40 | 33 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 43.40% |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 50 | 38.1 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 42.60% |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 48 | 32.8 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 42.40% |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 47 | 34.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 42.20% |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 51 | 36.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 39.70% |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 45 | 31.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 39.30% |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 45 | 33.6 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 39.00% |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 36 | 33.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 37.50% |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 47 | 37.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 36.00% |
| James Harden (HOU) | 43 | 38.8 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 34.90% |
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 53 | 30.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 34.60% |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 47 | 35.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 33.30% |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 45 | 36.5 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 31.30% |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 52 | 32.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 31.00% |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 36 | 36.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 29.90% |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 51 | 33.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 29.80% |
Now probably the most important stat for his catch and shoots would be the eFG%, where he is average again, ranking 13th out of 22 and his 52.8% is virtually the same as the 53.5% average
So for his very best skill when looking at comparable SGs he is average almost anyway you slice it.
Now we should look at how much he can use this skillset. He averages 4.8 catch and shoots a game * 45 games = 216 catch and shoot shots. However, for the year he has taken 619 shots so he can use this skill ~35% of the time. But lets keep this 35% in mind while we look at some overall numbers. Filtering again on SGs with 30+ min and looking at FG% for various shot types and sorting by eFG% (which is probably the most important)
| Player | GP | MIN per game | Catch and Shoot Total PTS | Catch and Shoot PTS per game | Catch and Shoot FGA per game | Catch and Shoot eFG% |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 44 | 34.7 | 390 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 70.70% |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 51 | 34.5 | 376 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 65.70% |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 43 | 32.6 | 274 | 6.4 | 5 | 64.00% |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 46 | 32.9 | 166 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 63.80% |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 48 | 32.8 | 268 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 62.00% |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 47 | 34.8 | 121 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 61.70% |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 48 | 36.9 | 312 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 59.50% |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 48 | 32.3 | 266 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 59.10% |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 50 | 38.1 | 478 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 59.00% |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 45 | 33.6 | 227 | 5 | 4.3 | 58.50% |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 40 | 33 | 240 | 6 | 5.3 | 56.60% |
| James Harden (HOU) | 43 | 38.8 | 165 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 53.20% |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 45 | 31.2 | 226 | 5 | 4.8 | 52.80% |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 51 | 36.6 | 121 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 52.60% |
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 53 | 30.7 | 249 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 51.00% |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 47 | 37.9 | 242 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 50.80% |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 52 | 32.1 | 118 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 48.00% |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 47 | 35.6 | 111 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 46.30% |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 36 | 33.5 | 50 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 45.50% |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 45 | 36.5 | 183 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 43.60% |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 36 | 36.7 | 114 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 43.50% |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 51 | 33.4 | 112 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 41.50% |
So for his very best skill when looking at comparable SGs he is average almost anyway you slice it.
Now we should look at how much he can use this skillset. He averages 4.8 catch and shoots a game * 45 games = 216 catch and shoot shots. However, for the year he has taken 619 shots so he can use this skill ~35% of the time. But lets keep this 35% in mind while we look at some overall numbers. Filtering again on SGs with 30+ min and looking at FG% for various shot types and sorting by eFG% (which is probably the most important)
| Player | GP | MIN per game | PTS per game | eFG% |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 44 | 34.7 | 12.2 | 64.40% |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 51 | 34.5 | 16.9 | 57.40% |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 47 | 34.8 | 20.4 | 56.50% |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 36 | 33.5 | 18.7 | 55.70% |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 48 | 32.8 | 14.4 | 55.10% |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 47 | 35.6 | 14.1 | 54.60% |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 48 | 36.9 | 19.8 | 53.00% |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 50 | 38.1 | 18.4 | 52.10% |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 45 | 33.6 | 15.1 | 51.00% |
| James Harden (HOU) | 43 | 38.8 | 23.7 | 50.90% |
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 53 | 30.7 | 18.4 | 49.20% |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 46 | 32.9 | 16 | 49.00% |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 48 | 32.3 | 19 | 48.60% |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 51 | 36.6 | 19.5 | 48.50% |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 43 | 32.6 | 13.1 | 48.00% |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 45 | 31.2 | 14.6 | 47.70% |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 40 | 33 | 16.6 | 46.50% |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 47 | 37.9 | 22.4 | 45.40% |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 52 | 32.1 | 13.8 | 45.00% |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 45 | 36.5 | 16.3 | 44.90% |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 51 | 33.4 | 15.3 | 43.60% |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 36 | 36.7 | 12.4 | 41.80% |
Now Bradley is ranked 16th out of 22 and his eFG% of 47.7% is somewhat significantly below the average of 50.4%, but that doesnt take into account FT attempts but Bradley happens to be 2nd to last for SGs at drawing FTAs:
Now if we look at some ancillary defensive numbers for these SGs:
Bradley is 11th out of 22 in steals, which is counter intuitive considering he is thought of as such a great on the ball defender
13th in blocks per game
17th in Opponent FGAs per game (meaning he gave up the 17th most FGAs at the rim)
21st in Opponents FG% at the rim. And before we say its because the Celts lack a presence inside, look at the list there are a lot of teams without good interior defenses on there as well
| PLAYER | FTA | FGA | FTA/FGA |
| James Harden, SG | 8.6 | 16.1 | 0.534161491 |
| Jimmy Butler, SG | 4.9 | 10.2 | 0.480392157 |
| Goran Dragic, SG | 5.8 | 14.1 | 0.411347518 |
| DeMar DeRozan, SG | 7.3 | 18.2 | 0.401098901 |
| Victor Oladipo, SG | 4.3 | 11.6 | 0.370689655 |
| Gerald Henderson, SG | 4.7 | 13.3 | 0.353383459 |
| Monta Ellis, SG | 5.5 | 15.6 | 0.352564103 |
| Arron Afflalo, SG | 5.0 | 14.8 | 0.337837838 |
| Gordon Hayward, SG | 4.5 | 14.0 | 0.321428571 |
| Kevin Martin, SG | 4.8 | 15.2 | 0.315789474 |
| Jamal Crawford, SG | 4.6 | 14.7 | 0.31292517 |
| Dwyane Wade, SG | 4.3 | 14.0 | 0.307142857 |
| Jodie Meeks, SG | 3.0 | 10.7 | 0.280373832 |
| Eric Gordon, SG | 3.6 | 13.4 | 0.268656716 |
| Wesley Matthews, SG | 3.3 | 12.3 | 0.268292683 |
| Lance Stephenson, SG | 2.6 | 11.3 | 0.230088496 |
| Joe Johnson, SG | 2.5 | 12.8 | 0.1953125 |
| J.R. Smith, SG | 2.1 | 12.3 | 0.170731707 |
| Klay Thompson, SG | 2.3 | 15.9 | 0.144654088 |
| Bradley Beal, SG | 2.2 | 15.9 | 0.13836478 |
| Avery Bradley | 1.9 | 13.8 | 0.137681159 |
| Kyle Korver, SG | 1.1 | 8.6 | 0.127906977 |
Now if we look at some ancillary defensive numbers for these SGs:
| Player | Min | GP | MIN per game | STL per game | BLK per game | Total BLK | Opp FGM at Rim per game | Opp FGA at Rim per game | Opp FGP at Rim |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 36.7 | 36 | 36.7 | 2 | 0.6 | 20 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 47% |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 36.5 | 51 | 36.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 14 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 60% |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 32 | 52 | 32.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 34 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 48% |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 33.3 | 36 | 33.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 20 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 54% |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 32.6 | 48 | 32.8 | 1.4 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 57% |
| James Harden (HOU) | 38.5 | 43 | 38.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 22 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 49% |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 36.3 | 45 | 36.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 28 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 51% |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 34.5 | 47 | 34.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 58% |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 32.7 | 46 | 32.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 10 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 70% |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 37.7 | 47 | 37.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 22 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 51% |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 31.2 | 45 | 31.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 10 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 64% |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 34.4 | 44 | 34.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 14 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 56% |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 32.9 | 40 | 33 | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 60% |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 32.3 | 48 | 32.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 56% |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 34.3 | 51 | 34.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 37.9 | 50 | 38.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 25 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 47% |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 32.4 | 43 | 32.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 10 | 1 | 1.8 | 56% |
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 30.5 | 53 | 30.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 10 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 59% |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 33.2 | 51 | 33.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 19 | 1 | 1.9 | 55% |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 35.4 | 47 | 35.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 49% |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 36.7 | 48 | 36.9 | 0.6 | 0 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 58% |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 33.3 | 45 | 33.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 57% |
Bradley is 11th out of 22 in steals, which is counter intuitive considering he is thought of as such a great on the ball defender
13th in blocks per game
17th in Opponent FGAs per game (meaning he gave up the 17th most FGAs at the rim)
21st in Opponents FG% at the rim. And before we say its because the Celts lack a presence inside, look at the list there are a lot of teams without good interior defenses on there as well
Now lets look at the more direct stats, and the best place I know of for them is 82 games, which has your counterparts eFG% and PER (just general barometers of efficiency/your defense) when guarding PGs and SGs, here is the data sorted by eFG% guarding PGs
Bradley ranks 6th, but his 44.6% above the average of 48.9%, but when you look at his PER when guarding PGs and he ranks 16th and his 15.4 is above the average of 14.5 Thats probably because he gives up 5.5 FTs per 18.3 FGAs when guarding PGs and for a great defender you would think he would be better than average in FT/FGA but he isnt. So its sort of a mixed bag with him guarding PGs
Interestingly, he has improved his stats when guarding SGs so he ranks 9th in SG eFG% and 11th in PER.
To sum all this up:
This is why I am not high on Bradley, he is like a platoon outfielder who can only hit lefties. Its a unique skillset but you have to have your roster setup just right to make it work. He has this one elite skill (on ball pressure defense on points) and while he think he is great defensively elsewhere the numbers indicate he is average. Then like a platoon outfield who bats 0.100 against RHP, he has this giant gaping hole in his game when not shooting catch and shoots. If I am not getting an above average player I would at least want a balanced player who isnt going to make me a liability somewhere on the court. Korver is great offensively at shooting 3s, average at everything else but his defense is so bad I wouldnt really want to touch him either, Bradley is just the flipside of that equation to me.
| Player | PG eFG% | PG PER | SG eFG% | SG PER |
| Monta Ellis (DAL) | 36.9% | 11.9 | 48.0% | 12.3 |
| Joe Johnson (BKN) | 37.5% | 7.1 | 51.4% | 14.7 |
| Victor Oladipo (ORL) | 43.6% | 15.5 | 47.2% | 15 |
| Lance Stephenson (IND) | 43.8% | 10.5 | 43.5% | 11.7 |
| Jimmy Butler (CHI) | 43.9% | 10 | 48.6% | 24.1 |
| Avery Bradley (BOS) | 44.6% | 15.4 | 47.9% | 13.5 |
| Klay Thompson (GSW) | 45.8% | 8.9 | 46.0% | 12.7 |
| James Harden (HOU) | 45.8% | 12.4 | 44.7% | 12.5 |
| Goran Dragic (PHX) | 45.8% | 13.5 | 42.7% | 8.7 |
| Wesley Matthews (POR) | 47.5% | 12.3 | 56.4% | 17.4 |
| J.R. Smith (NYK) | 47.6% | 15.3 | 52.7% | 15.2 |
| Jodie Meeks (LAL) | 48.8% | 19.8 | 53.2% | 18.5 |
| Gordon Hayward (UTA) | 49.5% | 14.2 | 52.9% | 14.5 |
| DeMar DeRozan (TOR) | 49.9% | 13.9 | 41.7% | 9.4 |
| Gerald Henderson (CHA) | 50.6% | 12.4 | 46.5% | 12.1 |
| Kyle Korver (ATL) | 51.6% | 14.8 | 55.6% | 17 |
| Dwyane Wade (MIA) | 55.9% | 10.1 | 57.4% | 17.6 |
| Arron Afflalo (ORL) | 57.9% | 14 | 54.7% | 14.7 |
| Eric Gordon (NOP) | 65.0% | 36.5 | 53.7% | 16.4 |
| Bradley Beal (WAS) | 66.3% | 21.8 | 48.5% | 13.2 |
| Kevin Martin (MIN) | 49.2% | 12.5 | ||
| Jamal Crawford (LAC) | 47.4% | 12 | ||
Bradley ranks 6th, but his 44.6% above the average of 48.9%, but when you look at his PER when guarding PGs and he ranks 16th and his 15.4 is above the average of 14.5 Thats probably because he gives up 5.5 FTs per 18.3 FGAs when guarding PGs and for a great defender you would think he would be better than average in FT/FGA but he isnt. So its sort of a mixed bag with him guarding PGs
Interestingly, he has improved his stats when guarding SGs so he ranks 9th in SG eFG% and 11th in PER.
To sum all this up:
- At his best skill (catch and shoots) he is average
- Looking at his overall offensive skillset he is below average from a shooting efficiency standpoint and with drawing FTs, which means his non-strength skillset (creating on his own) is a giant black hole in his offensive game
- He is average in some ancillary defensive stats and significantly below average in some others
- Slightly above average defending PGs and average when defending SGs
- Hence, overall defensively I see him as a bit of a mixed bag not a dominant defender even against just PGs
This is why I am not high on Bradley, he is like a platoon outfielder who can only hit lefties. Its a unique skillset but you have to have your roster setup just right to make it work. He has this one elite skill (on ball pressure defense on points) and while he think he is great defensively elsewhere the numbers indicate he is average. Then like a platoon outfield who bats 0.100 against RHP, he has this giant gaping hole in his game when not shooting catch and shoots. If I am not getting an above average player I would at least want a balanced player who isnt going to make me a liability somewhere on the court. Korver is great offensively at shooting 3s, average at everything else but his defense is so bad I wouldnt really want to touch him either, Bradley is just the flipside of that equation to me.
PedroKsBambino said:
On the study, I owe you a better one, just need to find the time to research it. However, if you are going to hold me to this burden of proof its probably a waste of my time. My point was that the general / macro trend for NBA players was to peak within a very early amount of time from the start of their career. I am not foolish enough to insist that every player will follow that career arc to a T, my only point was that if Bradley is going to be a late bloomer he is going against the grain, is going to be an outlier. I would hope we could surmise that with a better study hopefully without addressing every single thing you mention here. If again, you can accept that all I am saying is that its atypical for players to develop in the way you think Bradley might have significant development after year 4 and age 24/25 But if you want to claim that is very normal for players to have development curves like that, I might have to ask you for some evidence of that because I really dont think that assertion would be generally supported here, but I may be wrong.
My sense is that Bradley is a roughly MLE caliber player. That's a useful piece on a team that is trying to add to a strong core to contend. That is also not a player that you keep on a young team without a real core yet that is hoping to be a player in the FA market or to trade for an elite talent. For the former, you need cap space. For the latter, expiring deals and young assets. Keeping Bradley helps with neither unless he improves to the point where his market value this offseason looks like a good deal in another year or two.
I trust Ainge to make the call as to his likelihood of continued improvement. From where I am sitting, though, it's hard to see Bradley as a keeper for the Celtics. It simply doesn't make sense due to the cap dynamics of the NBA.
I trust Ainge to make the call as to his likelihood of continued improvement. From where I am sitting, though, it's hard to see Bradley as a keeper for the Celtics. It simply doesn't make sense due to the cap dynamics of the NBA.